V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA

(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

IDENTIFICATION
V2 SOLDAT MEMBER / STUDENT NAME: MOHD AZLAN SHAH
ANALYSIS DATE: 25th FEB 2017
CURRENCY PAIR / COMMODITY / INDICE: USDJPY
TRAINER: ADHA @The_Janissary (Telegram)
BROKER: FXPRIMUS
TYPE OF TRADE: INTRADAY

CURRENT FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

USD FED MONETARY POLICY
Statement: 01-02-2017
Fundamental: Holding (Bullish Bias) – same target Fed Fund Rate from Dec 2016 (0.5%-0.75%) in line
with market expectation
Tools: Interest rate (0.75%) Target data Indicator: Inflation
Forward guidance: Implementation note indicated 3 rate hikes in 2017

JPY BOJ MONETARY POLICY

Statement: 31-01-2017
Fundamental: Holding (Easing)
Tools: Interest rate (-0.1%), QQE
Target data Indicator: Inflation
Forward guidance: Further easing (QQE with yield control curve and lower interest rate). Extend by 1
year the deadlines for Fund-Provisioning Measure (stimulate bank lending and economic growth)
and Funds-Supplying Operation (support financial in disaster areas)

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

CURRENT OVERALL SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

↑USD : Tightening monetary policy
↑USD : Interest Rate Differential = 0.75%-(-0.1%)
= 0.85%
↑USD : 10YR Yield Spread = 2.3152%-0.06%
= 2.2552%
FUNDAMENTAL BULLISH USDJPY
↓JPY : Easing monetary policy
↓JPY : Interest Rate Differential = -0.1-0.75%
= -0.85%
↓JPY : 10YR Yield Spread = 0.06%-2.3152%
= -2.2552%
↓USD : Trump Policies and its broader effect
uncertainties
↓USD : FOMC meeting minutes hinting next hike is
less likely to happen in March
INTERMARKET BEARISH USDJPY ↓USD : Investor view tax reform plan uncertainties
in implementation

↑JPY : Move on safe heaven due to US Policies

uncertainties and FOMC meeting minutes
A short-term retracement at current key price to
TECHNICAL BEARISH USDJPY enter short position at better price or awaiting for
breakout to continue bearish movement.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

UPCOMING INFORMATION

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

10 YEARS BOND YIELD

US 10Y Bond Yield will most likely continue edging downwards for short term bearish USD to key
level for Entry D4 and then a bullish move upward to D4 TP. If USD turns bullish, the Bond Yield will
edge higher to DCA Resq Entry.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

10 YEARS BOND YIELD

JP 10Y Bond Yield may either move upwards to initiate B2 Entry wave or continue its bearish
movement down to D4 Entry before rallying upward.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

INDEX

US S&P500 may either continue sideway if USD is ranging. If USD bearish sentiment prevails, there is
a possibility for it to move down to complete wave D4. When the USD strengthen, it continues its
bullish momentum upward to MAX REV Entry before a downward correction again to MAX REV TP.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

INDEX

US DJ is about to reach key level MAX REV Entry if USD continues with bullish momentum. It should
then move downwards to MAX REV TP. If bearish sentiment prevails prior to the completion of
earlier wave, DJ is expected to move downward to D4 entry to start wave D4 down to wave D4 TP.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

INDEX

US ND is about to reach key level MAX REV Entry if USD continues with bullish momentum. It should
then move downwards to MAX REV TP. If bearish sentiment prevails prior to the completion of
earlier wave, DJ is expected to move downward to D4 entry to start wave D4 down to wave D4 TP.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

INDEX

JP NIKKEI 225 may either move upward to initiate wave D4 for a short term bullish reversal. It can
also move down to MAX REV Entry key level if NIKKEI bearish momentum continues.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

DXA – USD DOLLAR INDEX

DXA – US Dollar Index may be edging down to complete wave B2 down to 100.02 key level. If the
index reach key level 101.29 from the current price, it may continue its bullish momentum to D4
entry. However, possibility for a short-term pullback down from 101.29 to key level 101.05 before
it continues with the next wave.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

MARCH 2017 YEN FUTURE

MARCH YEN FUTURES is expected to rally higher to DCA RESQ Entry key level for bullish JPY or
move down to D4 entry key level if bearish sentiment prevails. A short-term reversal down to key
level 0.88645 may occur prior reaching the DCA RESQ Entry.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

CURRENT AMERICAN STYLE OPTION KEY LEVELS

REMARK (Option information dated 25th Feb 2017 10:39am)

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS

REMARK : Overall medium term USDJPY trend is bearish. At current key level pricing, UJ may either
perform a short term retracement upward to 113.20 via wave B2 from entry to TP. The best key
level pricing to re-enter a short position is at C3 Entry. However, if the bearish momentum is high, UJ
may continue is downward movement to D4 entry key level. I am looking to enter only short
positions based on current market sentiment. DCA RESQ Entry as counter measure for C3 entry (if
taken) should overall sentiment turns Bullish.

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 V2 SOLDATS® ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEA
(An Elite Training Programme under WSJ)

TECHNICAL TRADE IDEA

ENTRY TYPE SELL LIMIT
EXPIRY DATE
PRICE LEVEL OF ENTRY 113.205
PRICE LEVEL OF PROFIT TAKING 111.112
PIPS 209.3
PRICE LEVEL OF STOP LOSS IF AVAILABLE
PIPS
PRICE LEVEL OF COUNTER MEASURE IF 114.364
AVAILABLE)
RANGE OF PIPS FROM PREVIOUS ENTRY 115.9
LEVEL
TAKE PROFIT LEVEL IF COUNTER MEASURE 113.451
TRIGGERS
OVERALL PIPS IF HIT COUNTER MEASURE’S 209.3+91.3 (HOLDING & HIT BOTH TPS)
TAKE PROFIT LEVEL (FIRST -24.6+91.3 (MANUAL CLOSE C3 @ DCA RESQ
ENTRY+COUNTER MEASURE LEVEL ENTRY) TP)
TYPE OF TRADE INTRADAY

RESULT POSTMORTERM
HIT TP

HIT SL
COUNTER MEASURE TRIGGER
MANUAL TAKE PROFIT
LEVEL OF MANUAL TAKE PROFIT
MANUAL TAKE PROFIT PIPS
MANUAL CUT LOSS
LEVEL OF MANUAL CUT LOSS

MANUAL CUT LOSS PIPS

COMMENT

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