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Agatha Ana Jumelle R.

Servida
International Political Economy
Jumel G. Estrañero
5th March 2018

Rising Tensions in the Southeast: Impending World War


If you can’t beat them, join them. This is probably how the Philippine President
Rodrigo Duterte is trying to approach President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of
China. The tension between these two countries has minimized only recently when
President Duterte resorted to a more diplomatic negotiation with China. In line with this,
the rising tension over the Scarborough Shoal standoff has served to raise the Philippines’
profile once again mainly as a potential adversary to China over mineral resources in the
Asia Pacific region. Last July 12, 2016 it has been finally decided that the Philippines has
exclusive sovereign rights over the West Philippine Sea and that China’s “nine-dash line”
is invalid, according to the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal.

Unfortunately, China immediately rejects to recognize the said ruling. Still, their
ongoing activities have also alarmed other Southeast Asian nations. Up to this very day,
our current administration is trying to resolve the dispute through peaceful settlements
and mediation based on international law. Still, the negotiations with China have not
ended very badly after all, as China has promised Php 15 million worth of donations to
Marawi city. And only recently, Philippines will have a chance to boost our cybersecurity
with the possible entry China telecom industry. From tension, it has shifted to a warmer
relationship towards one another. It was only a few days ago on Al Jazeera that a Chinese
Ambassador said that they (China) are not trying to own Scarborough Shoal. A statement
that will still make us appreciate that there is still a silver lining.

But prior to the Philippines closer ties with China, there was the United States
which has served the Philippines ‘best alliance’ for the longest time. Just 20 years ago,
the Philippines was the centerpiece of U.S. military strategy in the Asia Pacific until 1991
when the Philippine Senate voted to terminate the US lease over the base. Unfortunately,
without the security umbrella provided by the United States, the AFP alone will be
incapable to provide a reliable defense capability. The relationship has gone impeccably
colder as year went by, fast forward to 2018, it leads us to a question. Is the Philippines
still a US ally? The rising tension with the Phil-US relations intensified under the Duterte
administration. The drug-wars and extra judicial killings seems to be too much for the
United States. Often, it has become questionable if the US is only making a big deal out
of the issue. Only making the war against drugs a pathway to slowly cease its relations
to the Philippines. Ponder onto this, war on drugs is an issue that may be resolved within
the state or with the assistance of other states. Why then, a super power like the US,
chose to criticize the Duterte administration instead of providing means to resolve the
conflict that we are experiencing? Drugs are prohibited in the Philippines, whilst drugs are
tolerable in some states in America. There is an obvious difference with how things are
being done in both states. Possibly, United States is only using the war on drugs as an
excuse to veer away from the its relations to the Philippines.

Between the two power states, the Philippines must choose who is the lesser evil.
China and United States have been endlessly competing against each other on either
political or economic scale, each with various approach. United States is not as powerful
as what they used to be and can no longer protect its Asian allies. Or say, more selective
on which allies they are going to defend. Adding to that is the less effective leadership of
the Trump administration. The Trump administration has not presented a coherent public
explanation of how it views China, what kind of relationship it seeks to cultivate, or how it
plans to do so. In contrast to China’s more prosperous governance under President Xi
Jinping. Currently, China is working on amending the constitution to abolish presidential
term limits. Of course, with the hope to extend the presidency of Xi Jinping. The is a very
direct statement that China is not willing to give up all the progress they have made over
the last few years. Altogether, the China-US relations reached the turning point, and it’s
not for the better. Aside from issues such as freedom-of-navigation operations, arms
sales to Taiwan and tariffs still strain the relationship. Thus, we will see a more
contentious relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

It is going to be a bumpy ride for our country in the next 10 years. The indirect
threat of China to extend the term of President Xi Jinping will only solidify China’s
dominance in the international arena. Since United States is veering away from its
alliance with the Philippines, it could be time to seek out for new alliances. If the Southeast
Asian countries will continue to be more submissive with China, it is most likely that China
will be the world’s hegemon in the next decade. In addition to ongoing territorial claims,
Southeast Asia is facing battles against extremism and most likely will fester over the next
few years.

There are other potential allies for the Philippines such as Russia and India. We
are foreseeing a more progressive relationship with President Vladimir Putin, an
impressive move of alliance shifting by the Duterte administration. It is of course, more
practical when it comes to geographical location.

It is best for the Philippines to remain vigilant and keep its eyes open for further
opportunities offered by other possible alliances. For sure, retaliating against China is no
going to be a considerable approach. Another considerable option is a unified voice of
the ASEAN countries to deal with China, without any use of aggression. Sometimes, the
best way to throw a punch is to take a step back.

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