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American inventor and futurist Raymond Kurzweil has become well

known for predicting the future of artificial intelligence and the human
race. His first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, written in 1990, put
forth his theories on the results of the increasing use of technology and
notably foresaw the explosive growth in the internet, among other
predictions. Later works, 1999's The Age of Spiritual Machines and
2005's The Singularity is Near outlined other theories including the rise
of clouds of nano-robots called foglets and the development of Human
Body 2.0 and 3.0, whereby nanotechnology is incorporated into many
internal organs.




[hide]

÷m 1 Accuracy of predictions
pm 1.1 The Age of Intelligent Machines
pm 1.2 The Age of Spiritual Machines
pm 1.3 The Singularity is Near
pm 1.4 Other Sources
÷m = Future Predictions
pm =.1 The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)
 m =.1.1 Early = s
 m =.1.= Early =1st century
 m =.1.3 = 1
 m =.1.4 = = -= 5
 m =.1.5 = = -=

 m =.1.6 Centuries hence
pm =.= The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999)
 m =.=.1 = 19
 m =.=.= = =9
 m =.=.3 = 49
 m =.=.4 =
=
 m =.=.5 = 99
  m =.=.6 Thousands of years from now
pm =.3 The Singularity is Near (= 5)
 m =.3.1 = 1
 m =.3.= = 1 s
 m =.3.3 = 14
 m =.3.4 = 18
 m =.3.5 = =
 m =.3.6 = = s
 m =.3.
= =5
 m =.3.8 = 3 s
 m =.3.9 = 4 s
 m =.3.1 = 45: The Singularity
 m =.3.11 Post-= 45: "Waking up" the Universe
 m =.3.1= Some indeterminate points within a few
decades from now
pm =.4 Other Sources
÷m 3 References

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Arguably, Kurzweil gained a large amount of credibility as a futurist from

his first book The Age of Intelligent Machines. Written from 1986 to
1989 and published in 1990, it forecast the demise of the Soviet Union
due to new technologies such as cellular phones and fax machines
disempowering authoritarian governments by removing state control
over the flow of information. In the book Kurzweil also extrapolated
preexisting trends in the improvement of computer chess software
performance to predict correctly that computers would beat the best
human players by 1998, and most likely in that year. In fact, the event
occurred in May 1997 when chess World Champion Garry Kasparov was
defeated by IBM's Deep Blue computer in a well-publicized chess
tournament. Perhaps most significantly, Kurzweil foresaw the explosive
growth in worldwide Internet use that began in the 1990s. At the time
of the publication of The Age of Intelligent Machines, there were only


2.6 million Internet users in the world [ ] and the medium was

unreliable, difficult to use, and deficient in content, making Kur weil's
realization of its future potential especially prescient given the
technology's limitations at that time. He also stated that the Internet
would explode not only in the number of users but in content as well,
eventually granting users access "to international networks of libraries,
data bases, and information services". Additionally, Kurzweil correctly
foresaw that the preferred mode of Internet access would inevitably be
through wireless systems, and he was also correct to estimate that the
latter would become practical for widespread use in the early 21st
century.

Kurzweil also accurately predicted that many documents would exist

solely on computers and on the Internet by the end of the 1990s, and
that they would commonly be embedded with animations, sounds and
videos that would prohibit their transference to paper format. Moreover,
he foresaw that cellular phones would grow in popularity while shrinking
in size for the foreseeable future.

Kurzweil's views regarding the future of military technology were

likewise supported by the course of real-world events following the
publication of The Age of Intelligent Machines. His pronouncement that
the world's foremost militaries would continually rely on more intelligent,
computerized weapons instead of, say, increasingly large, low -tech
armies, was illustrated spectacularly just a year later during the Gulf
War, which served as a showcase for new weapons technologies. The
trend towards greater computerization of weapons systems is further
demonstrated by the increased use of precision munitions since the
publication of Kurzweil's book. For example, 10% of all U.S. Naval
ordnance expended during the Gulf War (1991) were guided weapons.
During the Kosovo campaign (1999), that quantity climbed to 70%, and
it reached 90% during the 2001-2002 Operation Enduring Freedom in
Afghanistan.[2] As he also predicted, remotely controlled military aircraft
were developed, beginning with the Predator reconnaissance plane in
the mid-90s, and an armed version of the aircraft was first used in
combat in November 2002.[]

Kurzweil also described the future of computer-controlled, driverless

cars, claiming that the technology to build them would become available
during the first decade of the 21st century, yet that due to political
opposition and the general public's mistrust of the technology, the
computerized cars would not become widely used until several decades
hence. In fact, considerable progress has been made with the
technology since 1990, and General Motors is scheduled to unveil a new
electronic car system called "Traffic Assist" in its 2008 Opel Vectra
model. "Traffic Assist" uses video cameras, lasers and a central
computer to gather and process information from the road and to make
course and speed changes as needed, and is supposedly capable of
driving itself without any input from the user in speeds below 60 mph,
making it a true driverless car [] "Traffic Assist" will not be exclusive to
the 2008 Opel Vectra for long as GM has announced plans to offer the 
system for several other types of cars before the end of the decade. [ ]
Due to stricter U.S. product liability laws, the system will not be available
in America for the foreseeable future and will only be offered in
[ ]
Europe.

Kurzweil predicted that pocket-sized machines capable of scanning text

from almost any source (a piece of paper, a road sign, a computer
screen) and then reading the text out loud in a computerized voice
would be available "In the early twenty-first century" and would be used
to assist blind people. In June 2005, Ray Kurzweil himself unveiled the
"Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader" (K-NFB Reader),
which is a reading machine possessing the aforementioned attributes. [6]
However, he also claimed back in 1990 that the readers would be able
to recognize and describe symbols, pictures and graphics in addition to
words, read multiple languages, possess wireless Internet access, and
be in use with "most" blind and dyslexic people, and perhaps among
some normal people as well. While the K-NFB Reader does not have
these final attributes, it is possible that the device may be upgraded to
the necessary level before the nebulously defined "early twenty -first
century" expires. Kurzweil stated during a speech to the 2006 Singularity
Summit that his company's current efforts are focused on increasing the
pattern recognition abilities of the K-NFB Reader so that the device could
identify animals, objects and people, also utilizing facial recognition
programs for the final task.[7] Presumably, a machine complex enough to
handle such tasks would also be able to read much simpler written
symbols and traffic signs.
    
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In 1999, Kurzweil published a second book titled The Age of Spiritual

Machines, which goes into more depth explaining his futurist ideas. The
third and final section of the book is devoted to elucidating the specific
course of technological advancements Kurzweil believes the world will
experience over the next century. Titled "To Face the Future", the
section is divided into four chapters respectively named "2009", "2019",
"2029", and "2099". For every chapter, Kurzweil issues predictions about
what life and technology will be like in that year.

While the veracity of Kurzweil's predictions for 2019 and beyond cannot
yet be determined, 2009 is present to allow many of the ideas of the
"2009" chapter to be scrutinized. To begin, Kurzweil's claims that 2009
would be a year of continued transition as purely electronic computer
memories continued to replace older rotating memories seems to be
disproved by continued rapid growth in hard-disk capacity and unit
sales[8], while high-capacity Flash drives have yet to catch on in high-
volume applications. Nonetheless, solid state storage is the preferred
method of storage in low-volume applications such as MP3 players,
handheld gaming systems, cellular phones and digital cameras.
Samsung announced on Nov 20th 2008 that they would begin mass
production of a 256 GB Solid state drive[9] for use in laptops and
desktops, but these drives will cost over $1,000, making storage on
these drives cost roughly ten times the price of comparable hard-disk
storage. On the other hand, Kurzweil correctly foresaw the growing
ubiquity of wireless Internet access and cordless computer peripherals.
Perhaps of even greater importance, Kurzweil presaged the explosive
growth in peer-to-peer filesharing and the emergence of the Internet as
a major medium for commerce and for accessing media such as movies,
television programs, newspaper and magazine text, and music. He also
claimed that three-dimensional computer chips would be in common use
by 2009 (though older, "2-D" chips would still predominate), but
although IBM has recently developed the necessary chip -stacking
technology and announced plans to begin using three-dimensional chips
in its supercomputers and for wireless communication applications, chip
stacking will remain a low-volume technology in 2009.[10]

In The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil also spent time discussing

future increases in computing use in education. He predicted that
interactive software and electronic learning materials would be used by
2009. Indeed, smartboards, interactive whiteboards with a connection to
the Internet and learning software and activities are commonly used in
schools in developed nations. [11]
The XO Laptop in ebook-mode. Also known as the "$1 laptop".
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to reflect recent events or newly available information, and remove
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Kurzweil went further to say that students would commonly have

portable learning computers in the form of a "thin tablet-like device
weighing under a pound." While students increasingly use portable
laptops in schools, they tend to be of traditional configuration and of
greater weight. But supporting Kurzweil's prediction is the emergence of
the One Laptop Per Child Project, which aims to provide low-cost laptop
computers (often called the "$1 Laptop") to students in developing
nations across the world. The computer can be quickly reconfigured
from traditional laptop layout to a tablet-like "e-book reading" layout.[12]
However, the $1 Laptop also weighs over three pounds.[13] The first
batch of 5 million laptops [14] is expected to ship sometime in 2
.[15]
The government of Uruguay was the first to make a major order, buying
1 , of the laptops in October, 2
and announcing plans for the
possible purchase of 3 , more units by 2 9.[16]

While text-to-speech converters, which Kurzweil imagined in widespread

use by 2 9, remain uncommon as of early January 2 8, such
technologies are rapidly becoming more and more widely used; for
example, the strategy game EndWar, scheduled for release in 2 8,
features an extremely robust voice command interface.[1
] Computerized
distance learning, also, is already fairly common at sites such as
open.yale.edu, UC Berkeley Online Learning or youtube.com/ucberkeley,
and Second Life.

Kurzweil also restates his earlier prediction from The Age of Intelligent
Machines regarding the advent of pocket-sized, text-to-speech
converters for the blind. The "Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind
Reader" (K-NFB Reader) was introduced in 2005, though a significant
reduction in price would be required by 2009 to reasonably classify the
device as "cheap" -- one quality Kurzweil claimed they would possess.

Kurzweil predicted that warfare in 2009 would be dominated by

unmanned combat planes. While combat in 2007 is still dominated by
soldiers, ships, and aircraft, unmanned aircraft have nevertheless
advanced considerably since 1999 and are more widely used. These
include the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper planes currently on active
duty in the U.S. military.

Kurzweil predicted privacy emerging as a political issue (see CCTV:

Privacy).

Kurzweil also predicted that unused processing power from idle

computers would be harvested via the Internet, pooling the
computational resources of many ordinary PCs to create "virtual parallel
supercomputers." When Kurzweil wrote The Age of Spiritual Machines in
1998, distributed computing was unknown to the general public, and the
two biggest projectsƜthe Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search and
Distributed.netƜhad about 8,000[18] and 100,000[19] computers
contributing idle-time processing power, respectively. The popularity of
distributed computing exploded in May 1999 with the release of the
SETI@home program, which attracted 200,000 users within a week of
initial Internet release, and by July 2002, 3.83 million people had
downloaded and run the client. Today, the vast majority of distributed
computing projects fall under the auspices of either United Devices or
BOINC.[20] As of November 2007, BOINC has more than 1.1 million
active users and almost 2.4 million hosts. [21] Sony also offers users of
the Internet-capable PS3 game console the option to donate their
machines' idle processing power to Folding@homeƛan online distributed
computing project that seeks to understand the process of protein
folding. More than 600,000 PS3 users have agreed to lend their game
consoles to the task, resulting in a record-breaking petaflop
(1015calculations per second) of processing power in November 2007. [22]
This makes the Folding@home project only slightly less powerful (in
terms of raw calculating power) than the human brain, which Kurzweil
estimates to be capable of 20 x 10 15 calculations per second. Kurzweil
predicted that in 2009, these networks will have more raw power than a
human brain.
Kurzweil's prediction that portable computers will shrink in size and take
on nontraditional physical forms (i.e. - very different in design from a
laptop or desktop computer) by 2009 is supported by the emergence of
devices such as the portable media players and advanced cell phones,
as well as by newer PDAs. All meet Kurzweil's aforementioned criteria,
being small to the point of wearability, possessing the power and range
of function of older computers, and featuring designs that radically
depart from normal computers. Kurzweil's forecast that these devices
would store information without the use of rotating disk style hard drives
was also right.

However, his claim that such portable computers will be commonly

embedded in clothing and jewelry by 2009 seems unlikely to pass, as
does his prediction that people will typically be wearing "at least a
dozen" such computers in the same year. Most "portable computers" as
they are defined here also have built-in keyboards or accessible
keyboard functions (such as a digital keyboard that can be manipulated
through a touchscreen), putting reality again at odds with Kurzweil's
belief that most computers would lack this feature by 2009, with users
instead relying on continuous speech recognition (CSR) to communicate
with their PCs.

Similarly, Kurzweil's claim that, by 2009, "the majority of text" will be

created through continuous speech recognition (CSR) programs instead
of through keyboards and manual typing seems highly unlikely. In that
vein, he also implied in The Age of Spiritual Machines that CSR software
should in fact have already replaced human transcriptionists years
before 2009 (i.e. - 2007 or earlier) due in part to its projected
superiority in understanding speech compared to human listeners. CSR
is not yet this advanced, and the total replacement of human
transcriptionists did not happen.

His prediction that there are 100 computers in the average household is
debatable, as it depends upon one's definition of a computer. If one
considers microchips and the like computers, then it is quite likely,
between all the clocks, microwaves, washing machines, televisions, and
other devices in the household. Any other way doesn't seem to work,
however. This links into his prediction of domestic robots being around
but not mainstream (see Domestic robots).
Since the publication of The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil has
even tacitly admitted that some of his 2009 predictions will not happen
on schedule. For instance, in the book he forecast that specialized
eyeglasses that beamed computer-generated images onto the retinas of
their users to produce a HUD-effect would be in wide use by 2009.
However, the computerized voice translating services he predicted,
allowing people speaking different languages to understand one another
through a phone, are available.[citation needed]

The Age of Spiritual Machines also features a "Timeline" section at the

end, which summarizes both the history of technological advancement
and Kurzweil's predictions for the future. [23]

±   #   
$ 

While this book focuses on the future of technology and the human race
as The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines
did, Kurzweil makes very few concrete, short-term predictions in The
Singularity is Near, though longer-term visions are present in
abundance.

Kurzweil predicts that, in 2005, supercomputers with the computational

capacities to simulate protein folding will be introduced. However, he
does not say that an adequate scientific understanding of the forces
behind protein folding will come into being in the same year, meaning
that the supercomputers might lack the software to mimic accurately the
biochemical process. In fact, protein folding is still (as of 2009) a poorly
understood phenomenon, and even supercomputer simulations remain
inaccurate outside of simulating the folding of basic proteins.

±  %  # 

In an October 2002 article published on his website, Kurzweil stated that

"Deep Fritz-like chess programs running on ordinary personal computers
will routinely defeat all humans later in this decade." [24]

Deep Fritz is a computer chess program--generally considered superior

to the older Deep Blue--that has defeated or tied a number of human
chess masters and opposing chess programs. [25] Due to advances in
personal computer performance, the Deep Fritz program can now run on
ordinary personal computers, and different versions of it are available
for purchase.[26][27] While this makes the first part of Kurzweil's
prediction true, it is unknown whether the Deep Fritz programs are
currently defeating all humans in all games played, though considering
the impressive professional record of Deep Fritz, it would be reasonable
to assume that only the very best human players can beat the program
with consistency.

In September = =, Chessmaster 9 , a widely available chess playing

game from Ubisoft, defeated the then U.S. Chess Champion and
International Grandmaster Larry Christiansen in a four-game match. [=8]

±
 
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÷m Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in

different languages.
÷m Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow
deaf people to understand spoken words.
÷m Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk.
÷m Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering
machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and
priority.
÷m "Cybernetic chauffeurs" can drive cars for humans and can be
retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with
other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads.

±
 +  ,' 


÷m The classroom is dominated by computers. Intelligent courseware

that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths
and weaknesses. Media technology allows students to manipulate
and interact with virtual depictions of the systems and
personalities they are studying.
÷m  small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire
production sector. Tailoring of products for individuals is common.
 ÷m Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the
human body.
÷m Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can
visually recognize features of their environment.

Note: Since the "Early 2000s" and "Early 21st century" predictions are
both listed before the "2010" predictions in the technology Chronology,
it can be assumed that the timeframe for the first two is 2000-2010.

±  ,)')

÷m PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information

wirelessly via the Internet.

±  ,),)-,).)

÷m Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both

people.
÷m By 2020, there will be a new World government.

±  ,),)-,)/)

÷m A computer passes the Turing Test, becoming the first true

Artificial Intelligence.

Kurzweil has even wagered that his predictions will be true, on the site
Long Bets Betting against Mitchell Kapor, founder of Lotus Software
Corporation for a payout of $20,000, or $10,000 each.

±       

÷m 'omputer intelligence becomes superior to human intelligence in

all areas.
!
±   "# #  $ %
&'(((*

±  ,)'(

÷m A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the

human brain.
÷m ëhe summed computational powers of all computers is comparable
to the total brainpower of the human race.
÷m 'omputers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside
of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
÷m People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact
lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display).
'oupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely
communicate with other people and access the Internet.
÷m ëhese special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented
reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can
project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of
vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment
regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual
objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the
glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects
appear to stay in their places. ëhird, the devices could block out
the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual
reality environment.
÷m People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and
gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this
interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different
personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with
computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a
human being.
÷m Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing
with a simulated person.
÷m Most people own more than one P.'., though the concept of what
a "computer" is has changed considerably: 'omputers are no
longer limited in design to laptops or 'PUs contained in a large
box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer
capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
÷m 'ables connecting computers and peripherals have almost
completely disappeared.
÷m Rotating computer memories are no longer used.
÷m ëhree-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing
substrate.
÷m Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide
use.
÷m Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have
allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. ëhe
algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain
to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred
into computer neural nets.
÷m Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
÷m Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized
applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream.
"Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
÷m ëhin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutio ns are
the preferred means for viewing documents. ëhe aforementioned
computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this
same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
÷m 'omputers have made paper books and documents almost
completely obsolete.
÷m Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive
courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the
learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles
instead of being academic instructors. ëhese assistants are often
not physically present, and help students remotely.
÷m Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often
done remotely via computers.
÷m All students have access to computers.
÷m Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring
new skills and knowledge.
÷m Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for
them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to
amplify their own abilities.
÷m Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use
because they are less useful.
÷m Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or
signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. 'ochlear and
other implants are also widely used.
÷m People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using
computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic
walkers.
÷m Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are
routinely used in conversations.
÷m Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by
wearable or implanted computers.
÷m Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users
(i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in
virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"--in which
two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual
reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated"
partner that only exists on a computer--becomes a reality.
÷m Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic
technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet
requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for
computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred
sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
÷m Worldwide economic growth has continued. ëhere has not been a
global economic collapse.
÷m ëhe vast majority of business interactions occur between humans
and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal
assistant and a simulated retailer.
÷m Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
÷m 'omputers do most of the vehicle drivingƜ-humans are in fact
prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore,
when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer
system constantly monitors their actions and takes control
whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very
few transportation accidents.
÷m Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. ëhey are
also primarily computer-controlled.
÷m Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated
personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners.
ëhe depth of some computer personalities convinces some people
that they should be accorded more rights.
÷m Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to
prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently.
Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect
themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
÷m ëhe basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this
pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)

÷m 'omputers are also found inside of some humans in the form of

cybernetic implants. ëhese are most commonly used by disabled
people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants
allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical
legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
÷m Most roads now have automated driving systems--networks of
monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-
controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
÷m Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities
become more convincing.
 ÷m Virtual artists--creative computers capable of making their own art
and music--emerge in all fields of the arts.
÷m While a growing number of humans believe that their computers
and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to
the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the
possibility that any could pass the ëuring ëest.

÷m Ubiquitous connectivity high bandwidth communications

connection to the Internet at all times
÷m Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface
÷m Effective language technologies (natural language processing,
speech recognition, speech synthesis)

±  ,),(

÷m A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than

the human brain.
÷m ëhe vast majority of computation is done by computers.
÷m Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of
the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized
functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code
for development of these regions have been deciphered and
incorporated into neural net computers.
÷m Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through
reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
÷m ëhe eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality
are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the
eyes and ears. ëhe implants are either permanent or removable.
ëhey allow direct interface with computers, communications and
Internet-based applications. ëhe implants are also capable of
recording what the user sees and hears.
÷m 'omputer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are
also available. ëhey are capable of augmenting natural senses and
of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed
and overall intelligence.
÷m 'omputers are now capable of learning and creating new
knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By
scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers
"know" literally every single piece of public information (every
scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement,
etc.) generated by human beings.
 ÷m Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual
reality--with complete sensory stimulation--without any external
equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place
at any moment. ëhis technology is in widespread use.
÷m Most communication occurs between humans and machines as
opposed to human-to-human.
÷m ëhe manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the
economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few
humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost
nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
÷m ëhe rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights"
movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of
civil rights and legal protections machines should have. ëhe
existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation
and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme
cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what
constitutes a "human being."
÷m Although computers routinely pass the ëuring ëest, controversy
still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in
all areas.
÷m Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for
recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new
truth.

÷m Reverse engineering of the human brain completed

÷m Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern
recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed,
memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
÷m Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially
whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed

±  ,)0(

÷m Food is commonly "assembled" by nanomachines. ëhis food is

externally indistinguishable from "natural" food, but it can be
made more wholesome since production can be controlled at the
molecular level. ëhis technology decouples food production from
climate conditions and the availability of natural resources.
÷m ëhe distinction between virtual reality and "real" reality becomes
confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate
assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects.
±  ,)/,

÷m Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter)

becomes practical.

±  ,)((

÷m ëhe human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all
aspects of its functioning are understood.
÷m Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer
minds.
÷m Machines have attained equal legal status with humans.
÷m Humans and machines merge together in the physical and mental
realms. 'ybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their
minds with AI's.
÷m In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machi nes
no longer exist.
÷m Most conscious beings lack a permanent physical form.
÷m ëhe world is overwhelmingly populated by AI's that exist entirely
as thinking computer programs capable of instantly moving from
one computer to another across the Internet (or whatever
equivalent exists in 2099). ëhese computer-based beings are
capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by
creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual AI's also
being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once.
÷m Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it
impossible to determine how many Ơpeopleơ there are on Earth.
÷m ëhis new plasticity of consciousness and ability for beings to join
minds seriously alters the nature of self-identity.
÷m ëhe majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual
environments. Actually having two people physically meet in the
real world to have a conversation or transact business without any
technological interference is very rare.
÷m Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life
forms on Earth. Even among the remaining Homo sapiens, the use
of computerized implants that heavily augment normal abilities is
ubiquitous and accepted as normal. ëhe small fraction of humans
who opt to remain "natural" and unmodified effectively exist on a
different plane of consciousness from everyone else, and thus find
it impossible to fully interact with AI's and highly modified humans.
 ÷m "Natural" humans are protected from extermination. In spite of
their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AI's for
giving rise to the machines.
÷m Since knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and
comprehended by most intelligent beings, the process of learning
is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-
long struggle normal humans experience. Free from this time-
consuming burden, AI's now focus their energies on making new
discoveries and contributions.
÷m AI's are capable of dividing their attention and energies in
countless directions, allowing one b eing to manage a multitude of
endeavors simultaneously.
÷m Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of one thousandth of
a trillionth of a meter) might be possible.
÷m AI's communicate via a shared electronic language.
÷m Artwork and music created by machines encompasses areas of the
light spectrum and frequencies of sounds that normal humans
cannot perceive.
÷m Money has deflated in value.
÷m Some humans at least as old as the Baby Boomers are still alive
and well.
÷m 'omputer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings
are software-based.
÷m AI's frequently make "backup copies" of themselves, guaranteeing
a sort of immortality should the original AI be killed.
÷m ëhe concept of "life expectancy" has become irrelevant to humans
and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced
computers.
÷m ëhe pace of technological change continues to accelerate as the
22nd century nears.
) )
±  &'(  ' * 

*'+

÷m "Intelligent beings consider the fate of the Universe." Presumably,

this means that the AI's created by humans will have the ability to
control the entire Universe, perhaps keeping it from dying.

±   # 
$  &,)).*

±  ,)')
 ÷m Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as
human brains (though not yet the software to emulate human
thinking).
÷m 'omputers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects,
meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be
embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
÷m Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.

±  ,)')

÷m 'omputers become smaller and increasingly integrated into

everyday life.
÷m More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web
servers, and more will have their resources pooled for
computation.
÷m High-quality broadband Internet access will become available
almost everywhere.
÷m Glasses that beam images onto the users' retinas to produce
virtual reality will be developed. ëhey will also come with speakers
or headphone attachments that will complete the experience with
sounds.
÷m ëhe VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual
assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks.
(see Augmented Reality)
÷m Virtual assistants would be capable of multiple functions. One
useful function would be real-time language translation in which
words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text
that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses.
÷m 'ell phones will be built into clothing and will be able to project
sounds directly into the ears of their users.
÷m Advertisements will utilize a new technology whereby two
ultrasonic beams can be targeted to intersect at a specific point,
delivering a localized sound message that only a single person can
hear. ëhis was depicted in the movie Minority Report.

±  ,)'0

÷m Automatic house cleaning robots will have become common.

±  ,)'1
 ÷m 1013 bits of computer memory--roughly the equivalent of the
memory space in a single human brain--will cost $1000.

±  ,),)

÷m Personal computers will have the same processing power as

human brains.

±  ,),)

÷m 'omputers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.

÷m As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used
for medical purposes.
÷m Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans
on live patients.
÷m Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist
due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the
brain will be understood.
÷m Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and
extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by
the end of this decade. ëhey will make the normal mode of human
food consumption obsolete.
÷m By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in
widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of
products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their
traditional-manufacture costs. ëhe true cost of any product is now
the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
÷m By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-
quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
÷m ëhe threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens
permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical
nanobots--infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any
microorganism--become sufficiently advanced.
÷m A computer passes the ëuring test by the last year of the decade
(2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human
(though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a very stupid
human). ëhis first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a
human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech -
guided brainscanning.

±  ,),.
 ÷m ëhe most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
÷m Some military UAV's and land vehicles will be 100% computer-
controlled.

±  ,)2)

÷m Mind uploading becomes possible.

÷m Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could
interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing
signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be
generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent
nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the "real"
world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual
experience.
÷m Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
÷m Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of
a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be
available for other people to remotely experience. ëhis is very
similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to
enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
÷m Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow
them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory
capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to
"telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented
humans via wireless networks.
÷m ëhe same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the
neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying
basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
÷m Human body 2.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) is incrementally accumulated
into this decade. It consists of a nanotechnological system of
nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs,
and an improved skeleton.

±  ,)0)

÷m Human body 3.0 is gradually implemented during this decade. It

lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external
appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.
÷m People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality
(Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the
advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
 ÷m Foglets are in use.

±  ,)0.3 , # -. /

÷m $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every

human combined. ëhis means that average and even low-end
computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent,
unenhanced humans.
÷m ëhe Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human
beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth.
ëechnological development is taken over by the machines, who
can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans
cannot even comprehend what is going on. ëhe machines enter
into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each
new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this
point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the
control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
÷m ëhe Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event
that forever changes the course of human history. ëhe
extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though
not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and
machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of
cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
1
±  0 -,)0.3 4 2 34 4 5 

÷m ëhe physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or

other equivalent, albeit more effective components, such as
memristors integrated into 'rossbar latches) can be shrunk is
reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made
more powerful if they are made larger in size.
÷m Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter
into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting
more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer.
÷m At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of
the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter in
the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into
space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole
planets, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant
computers. ëhis, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the
inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted
 into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic
life).
÷m Kurzweil predicts that machines might have the ability to make
planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how
enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
÷m ëhe process of "waking up" the universe could be complete as
early as 2199, or might take billions of years depending on
whether or not machines could figure out a way to circumvent the
speed of light for the purposes of space travel.
÷m With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient
supercomputer, AI and human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth
it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence
and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this
would open up all sorts of new possibilities, including abrogation of
the laws of Physics, interdimensional travel, and a possible infinite
extension of existence (true immortality).
6 6
±  #      
 5 
   7 


÷m Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth

permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.
÷m ëhe antitechnology Luddite movement will grow increasingly vocal
and possibly resort to violence as these people become enraged
over the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional
attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension,
genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind
(artificial intelligence). ëhough the Luddites might, at best,
succeed in delaying the Singularity, the march of technology is
irresistible and they will inevitably fail in keeping the world frozen
at a fixed level of development.
÷m ëhe emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion
virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet,
enable the ultimate in telecommuting. ëhis, in turn, will make
cities obsolete since workers will no longer need to be located near
their workplaces. ëhe decentralization of the population will make
societies less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks.

±  %8  #  
Kurzweil said the following in a November 2007 Computerworld
interview:

÷m Speech-to-speech translation features will be available in cell

phones in either 2009 or 2010. [29]
÷m By 2017, computers will have become even more ubiquitous in the
environment, largely owing to smaller size. Some will be woven
into clothing and will be "self-organizing."[30]
÷m By the same year, practical virtual reality glasses will be in use.
ëhe devices will work by beaming images direc tly onto the retinas
of their users, creating large, three-dimensional floating images in
the person's field of view. Such devices would provide a visual
experience on par with a very large television, but would be highly
portable, combining the best features of the iPod and a
widescreen ëV. ëhe glasses will deliver full-immersion virtual
reality.[30]
÷m By 2017, "augmented reality" will exist: ëhe V.R. glasses
previously mentioned will have advanced computers and sensors
built into them that will be able to recognize elements within the
user's environment and then provide appropriate information and
assistance through visual or auditory means. If the user looks at a
building or a person's face, the computer will provide information
through a "heads-up-display" beamed onto the person's retinas.
ëhe devices could also be used for keeping track of schedules,
navigating, and querying for general information.[30]
÷m By 2022, medical technology will be more than a thousand times
more advanced than it is today, and the "tipping point" of human
life expectancy will have been reached, with every new year of
research guaranteeing at least one more year of life expectancy.
Kurzweil also states that 3-4 months of life expectancy were added
in 2007 due to the development of new medicines and
treatments.[29]
÷m 'ell phones and P's will be increasingly woven into a global grid
of computers wirelessly connected to the Internet. Instead of each
device just sending and receiving its own data, more and more of
the machines will be tasked with processing foreign data, creating
a huge, interconnected network with millions of nodes.
÷m By 2027, accurate computer simulations of all parts of the human
brain will exist.[29]
Kurzweil said in a 2006 '-SPAN2 interview that "nanotechnology-based"
flying cars would be available in 20 years [31].

Kurzweil said in a 2008 conference that solar energy would become

cheaper than energy from oil by 2014.

±  9    

1.m o Fleeing the dot.com era - decline in Internet usage | UNES'O

'ourier |Find Articles at BNEë.com
2.m o NDM Article - Precision Weapons 'ommand More Attention,
Resources
3.m o Air Force ëechnology - Predator - Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UAV
4.m o New OPEL Vectra 2008
5.m o   A ::
'ar ëhat (Really) Drives Itself: ëhe 2008 Opel Vectra
6.m o http: www.knfbreader.com/index.html
7.m o Youëube - Ray Kurzweil (pt1of3) ëhe Singularity Summit at
Stanford
8.m o [1]
9.m o http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/enterprise/65233.html
10.m o IBM Extends Moore's Law to the ëhird Dimension
11.m o SMARë - SMARë Board interactive whiteboards
12.m o One Laptop per 'hild (OLP'), Laptop: A learning tool
created expressly for the children in developing nations
13.m o One Laptop per 'hild (OLP'), Laptop: A learning tool
created expressly for the children in developing nations
14.m o "$100 Laptop Project Moves 'loser to Narrowing Digital
Divide". http://content.undp.org/go/newsroom/2006/january/100-
dollar-laptop-20060128.en. Retrieved 2007-12-22.
15.m o Low-cost laptop could transform learning -
USAëODAY.com
16.m o "Uruguay buys first '$100 laptops'", BB' News, October
29, 2007.
17.m o GameSpy: ëom 'lancy's EndWar Preview
18.m o http://www.mersenne.org/news15.txt
19.m o Record set in cracking 56-bit crypto |'NEë News.com
20.m o iSGëW Announcement - World 'ommunity Grid migrates
to BOIN'
21.m o BOIN'stats - BOIN' Statistics / BAM! - BOIN' Account
Manager
22.m o Sony's Folding@home project gets Guinness record |Geek
Gestalt - A blog by Daniel ëerdiman - 'NEë News.com
23.m o KurzweilAI.net
24.m o Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are
'omputers Getting Stupider?
25.m o ëhe chess games of Deep Fritz ('omputer)
26.m o 'hess software - Deep Fritz 10 - Multiprocessor Version
27.m o Deep Fritz 8
28.m o 'hessmaster 9000 Defeats Reigning US 'hess 'hampion
Larry 'hristiansen; 'hessmaster Wins Four Game Match 2.5 to 1.5
Via Live Internet Broadcast on 'hess'lub.com
29.m o    ëhe Kurzweil interview, continued: Portable
computing, virtual reality, immortality, and strong vs. narrow AI
|'omputerworld Blogs
30.m o    "ëhe Grill: Ray Kurzweil talks about 'augmented
reality' and the Singularity".
http://computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticle
Basic&taxonomyName=hardware&articleId=306176&taxonomyId=
12&intsrc=kc_feat. Retrieved 2007-12-22.
31.m o "Book ëV - In Depth: Ray Kurzweil".
http://www.booktv.org/program.aspx?ProgramId=7515&SectionN
ame=In%20Depth&PlayMedia=yes;. Retrieved 2008-06-24.