Ke Wang, Haitao Li.

Predicting production and estimated ultimate recoveries for

shale gas wells: A new methodology approach.
This paper analyzes the basic theories of Arps’s methods, SEPD, and Duong method in detail
to determine the reason behind their limitations. Afterwards, a new empirical methodology
is based on the empirical relationship between production and time in a fracture-dominated
reservoir. The new methodology is based on the empirical relationship between production
and time in a fracture-dominated flow regime, and considers the influence of time on the
fracture. Finally, the proposed method is compared to SEPD and Duong’s method through
theoretical analyses and different empirical applications of shale gas wells in Sichuan Basin.
A new method to predict reliable production and EURs for shale gas wells
Mathematical formulations are carried to derive the equations for cumulative gas production
and EUR of gas wells.
2
𝑞 = 𝑞1 . 𝑒 −𝜆.(𝑙𝑛𝑡)
After taking logarithm on both sides of above equation;
ln(𝑞) = ln(𝑞1 ) − 𝜆. (𝑙𝑛𝑡)2
Plotting the relationship of ln(𝑞) versus (𝑙𝑛𝑡)2 yields a straight line representing the
following relationship:
𝑦 = 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒. 𝑥 + 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡,
𝑞1 = 𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 ,
𝜆 = −𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒
Where 𝑞1 is the production rate at t=1 of the proposed model, but not the actual production
rate at t=1 when production begins to decline.
Four steps are involved for calculating Gp and EURs of wells:
 Step 1: Data Optimization
 Step 2: “𝜆" and “q1” Determination.
 Step 3: Production and Cumulative Production Forecast
 Step 4: EUR Estimated within the Reservoir Life.
 Fig. Production history of well-2 in Sichuan Basin.

Fig. The straight line of 𝐥𝐧(𝒒) versus (𝒍𝒏𝒕)𝟐 for Well-2.

 Fig. The results of production and cumulative production fitting cures obtained
through the new method for Well-1 and Well-2 from Sichuan Basin of China

Conclusions
The results show that:
1. SEPD is not efficient in fitting the production turn between the rapid and slow
decline stages, and will underestimates future production and EURs, particularly
for shale gas wells with low productivity.
2. Duong’s method overestimates future production and EURs with a short
production history, and is significantly influenced by irreversible decline in the
slow stage.
3. The new method depends on the least number of parameters and has the simple’s
application procedure, and performs the best in comparison to SEPD and Duong’s
methods in both production and EUR estimation.