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Internet Appendix to

“The Business Cycle, Investor Sentiment, and Costly External


Finance”
This Internet Appendix provides supplemental analyses to the main tables in "The Business Cycle,
Investor Sentiment, and Costly External Finance."

Table IA.I replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with the difference being that instead of year
dummies, we include yearly observations of Expansion, Industrial Growth, Sentiment, and CSI in
each regression.

Table IA.II reports the regression results with alternative investment measures.

Table IA.III replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with cash and cash interactions with Expansion,
Industrial Production, Sentiment, and CSI as additional independent variables.

Table IA.IV replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with alternative definitions for Expansion.

Table IA.V replicates regressions from Tables II to VI in the paper using a version of the Baker
and Wurgler sentiment variable that is constructed with simple averages.

Table IA.VI replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with non-orthogonalized (to economic
conditions) sentiment indices.

Table IA.VII replicates Tables II to VI in the paper using sentiment indices that are adjusted (to
be nonnegative) by adding a constant. The paper uses the ranks of the sentiment indices.

Table IA.VIII reports regression results in which the dependent variables are investment and
employment growth, and the regressors are a size dummy, interactions between the size dummy
and the investor sentiment and business cycle variables, and year and firm fixed effects.

Table IA.IX reports regression results in which the dependent variables are investment and
employment growth, and the regressors are a ratings dummy, interactions between the ratings
dummy and the investor sentiment and business cycle variables, and year and firm fixed effects.

Table IA.X reports regression results in which the dependent variables are investment and
employment growth, and the regressors are a dividend dummy, interactions between the dividend
dummy and the investor sentiment and business cycle variables, and year and firms fixed effects.


Citation format: R. David McLean and Mengxin Zhao, Internet Appendix to “The Business Cycle, Investor
Sentiment, and Costly External Finance,” Journal of Finance [DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12047]. Please note: Wiley-
Blackwell is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors.
Any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the authors of the article.

1
Table IA.I
Regression Results with Own Effect

This table replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with the difference being that instead of year dummies, we include
yearly observations of Expansion, Industrial growth, Sentiment, and CSI in each regression. The dependent variables
are Investment (Panel A), Employee Growth (Panel B), Equity Issues (Panel C), and Debt Issues (Panel D). Panel E
reports Chow tests for coefficient differences between Panels C and D. Investment, Employee Growth, Equity Issues,
and Debt Issues are measured the same as in Tables II to V. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to
one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero
otherwise. Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last
12 months, and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index
is based on the first principal component of six sentiment variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to the business
cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. We regress the Michigan index on
several business cycle variables and use the residual as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI
based on their yearly values. The rank variables are calculated as (Rank of Sentiment or CSI -1)/Maximum Rank.
Rank variables are positive, so we can therefore interact the indices with variables that have both positive and negative
values. Tobin’s q (q) is measured as the log of: the market value of equity, minus the book value equity, plus the book
value of assets, all scaled by the book value of assets. q is lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation
and amortization, scaled by lagged assets. All regressions include firm fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on
both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; ***
Significant at 1%.

2
Table IA.I Regression Results with Own Effect (Continued)

Panel: A Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


q(t-1) 0.261*** 0.282*** 0.240*** 0.267*** 0.113*** 0.161*** 0.109*** 0.189***
(9.86) (12.09) (7.30) (7.63) (4.08) (4.65) (3.04) (5.31)
Cash Flow 0.806*** 0.761*** 0.820*** 0.799*** 1.243*** 1.147*** 1.227*** 1.056***
(6.93) (6.97) (4.75) (4.92) (7.01) (6.67) (6.69) (5.78)
Expansion 0.057*** 0.056*** 0.055***
(2.86) (4.44) (3.60)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.135*** 0.141*** 0.128***
(4.25) (7.11) (5.37)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.453*** -0.460*** -0.416***
(3.66) (4.66) (4.46)
Indus.Prod 0.039*** 0.032*** 0.047***
(2.64) (2.92) (3.94)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.121*** 0.142*** 0.104***
(4.03) (5.11) (3.43)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.433*** -0.459*** -0.366***
(3.55) (4.31) (3.50)
Sentiment 0.007 0.016 0.010
(0.20) (0.64) (0.39)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.245*** 0.244*** 0.267***
(3.93) (5.08) (5.37)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.707** -0.745*** -0.768***
(2.06) (2.79) (2.85)
CSI -0.030 -0.031** -0.040**
(1.43) (2.02) (2.33)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.205*** 0.188*** 0.189***
(3.28) (3.58) (3.46)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.634** -0.617*** -0.576**
(2.49) (2.77) (2.55)
Observations 146,823 146,823 147,271 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823
R2 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

3
Table IA.I Regression Results with Own Effect (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


q(t-1) 0.129*** 0.130*** 0.094*** 0.108*** 0.074*** 0.095*** 0.069*** 0.094***
(15.59) (16.34) (7.39) (9.03) (5.46) (7.86) (4.91) (8.46)
Cash Flow 0.427*** 0.439*** 0.467*** 0.449*** 0.611*** 0.564*** 0.635*** 0.555***
(7.46) (8.53) (7.56) (6.60) (6.83) (6.33) (7.80) (6.94)
Expansion 0.058*** 0.057*** 0.056***
(6.21) (8.28) (5.93)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.019** 0.022** 0.017*
(1.98) (2.44) (1.81)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.151** -0.154** -0.143**
(2.40) (2.51) (2.41)
Indus.Prod 0.056*** 0.053*** 0.058***
(7.29) (8.02) (7.62)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.015* 0.024** 0.010
(1.84) (2.53) (0.96)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.176*** -0.189*** -0.155***
(3.19) (3.69) (3.18)
Sentiment -0.012 -0.005 0.001
(0.60) (0.35) (0.09)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.095*** 0.093*** 0.094***
(4.92) (5.36) (5.39)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.295*** -0.318*** -0.324***
(2.75) (3.49) (3.40)
CSI 0.017 0.014 -0.002
(1.08) (1.19) (0.21)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.064*** 0.058*** 0.069***
(3.63) (3.44) (4.00)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.242** -0.236*** -0.220**
(2.55) (2.80) (2.54)
Observations 138,111 138,111 138,548 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111
R2 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09

4
Table IA.I Regression Results with Own Effect (Continued)

Panel C: Share Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


q(t-1) 0.147*** 0.164*** 0.124*** 0.149*** 0.032 0.072** 0.030 0.096***
(7.11) (8.40) (5.09) (5.43) (1.28) (2.51) (1.05) (3.35)
Cash Flow -0.175*** -0.229*** -0.132 -0.205* 0.216* 0.083 0.190 -0.007
(2.66) (3.35) (0.98) (1.81) (1.69) (0.72) (1.38) (0.06)
Expansion 0.028*** 0.028*** 0.027***
(2.66) (4.33) (3.20)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.099*** 0.102*** 0.093***
(3.90) (6.64) (5.67)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.373*** -0.380*** -0.341***
(4.17) (6.48) (6.15)
Indus.Prod 0.014 0.009 0.022***
(1.48) (1.23) (2.75)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.087*** 0.103*** 0.073***
(3.84) (5.24) (3.69)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.337*** -0.361*** -0.284***
(3.74) (5.02) (3.84)
Sentiment 0.016 0.022 0.014
(0.64) (1.12) (0.73)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.188*** 0.188*** 0.206***
(3.40) (4.09) (4.30)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.644** -0.670*** -0.692***
(2.27) (3.00) (3.07)
CSI -0.038*** -0.038*** -0.041***
(2.62) (2.94) (2.89)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.156*** 0.144*** 0.143***
(2.71) (2.82) (2.69)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.491** -0.475** -0.440**
(2.31) (2.55) (2.32)
Observations 145,639 145,639 146,087 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639
R2 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14

5
Table IA.I Regression Results with Own Effect (Continued)

Panel D: Debt Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


q(t-1) 0.107*** 0.110*** 0.098*** 0.103*** 0.077*** 0.087*** 0.075*** 0.089***
(11.49) (14.58) (8.77) (10.83) (6.56) (7.53) (6.54) (8.80)
Cash Flow 0.055 0.062 0.054 0.110** 0.091 0.137* 0.099 0.138**
(0.97) (1.35) (1.10) (2.07) (1.17) (1.81) (1.49) (2.01)
Expansion 0.022** 0.022** 0.021**
(2.24) (2.46) (2.14)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.022** 0.023*** 0.020**
(2.38) (2.69) (2.03)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.040 -0.040 -0.035
(0.76) (0.77) (0.68)
Indus.Prod 0.020*** 0.019*** 0.019***
(3.20) (3.24) (3.01)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.020** 0.023*** 0.017*
(2.56) (2.78) (1.77)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.050 -0.052 -0.038
(1.21) (1.24) (0.97)
Sentiment -0.004 -0.001 0.001
(0.28) (0.08) (0.08)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.052*** 0.051*** 0.053***
(3.33) (3.53) (3.88)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.052 -0.060 -0.059
(0.72) (0.84) (0.82)
CSI 0.016 0.014 0.009
(1.46) (1.50) (0.93)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.039*** 0.035*** 0.038***
(2.94) (2.82) (3.07)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.139** -0.139** -0.139**
(2.30) (2.34) (2.38)
Observations 146,769 146,769 147,217 146,769 146,769 146,769 146,769 146,769
R2 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

6
Table IA.I Regression Results with Own Effect (Continued)

Panel E: Issue versus Debt

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


q(t-1) 0.04*** 0.054*** 0.026** 0.046*** -0.045 -0.015 -0.045 0.007**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.023) (0.000) (0.808) (0.212) (0.844) (0.037)
Cash Flow -0.23*** -0.291*** -0.186*** -0.315*** 0.125* -0.054*** 0.091** -0.145***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.076) (0.000) (0.039) (0.000)
Expansion 0.006 0.006 0.006
(0.849) (0.848) (0.660)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.077*** 0.079*** 0.073***
(0.002) (0.000) (0.000)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.333*** -0.34*** -0.306***
(0.000) (0.001) (0.000)
Indus.Prod -0.006 -0.01 0.003
(0.271) (0.141) (0.925)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.067*** 0.08*** 0.056***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.287*** -0.308*** -0.246***
(0.000) (0.001) (0.001)
Sentiment 0.02 0.023 0.013
(0.932) (0.892) (0.815)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.136* 0.137* 0.153**
(0.080) (0.060) (0.036)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.592* -0.61** -0.633**
(0.077) (0.040) (0.036)
CSI -0.054*** -0.052*** -0.05***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.002)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.117* 0.109** 0.105*
(0.072) (0.078) (0.107)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.352 -0.336 -0.301
(0.325) (0.326) (0.415)
F-stat 141.25 75.13 63.81 57.03 58.53 208.09 60.03 55.23
p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

7
Table IA.II
Alternative Investment Measures
This table reports the regression results based on alternative investment measures. The dependent variables are asset growth (Panel A), R&D spending scaled by
beginning-of-year assets (Panel B), non-cash asset growth (Panel C), and the sum of capital expenditure, R&D, and SG&A scaled by beginning-of-year assets
(Panel D). Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by
the NBER, and zero otherwise. Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last 12 months, and zero
otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based on the first principal component of six sentiment
variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to the business cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. We regress the Michigan
index on several business cycle variables and use the residual as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI based on their yearly values. The
rank variables are calculated as (Rank of Sentiment or CSI -1)/Maximum Rank. Rank variables are positive, so we can therefore interact the indices with variables
that have both positive and negative values. Tobin’s q (q) is measured as the log of: the market value of equity, minus the book value equity, plus the book value
of assets, all scaled by the book value of assets. q is lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization, scaled by lagged assets. All
regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. * Significant at
10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

8
Table IA.II Alternative Investment Measures (Continued)

Panel A: Asset Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.373*** 0.272*** 0.293*** 0.256*** 0.300*** 0.143*** 0.207*** 0.147*** 0.235***
(13.59) (14.74) (19.12) (8.55) (9.68) (4.77) (6.34) (3.78) (6.77)
Cash Flow 0.452*** 0.766*** 0.699*** 0.787*** 0.733*** 1.121*** 1.018*** 1.066*** 0.922***
(5.65) (11.05) (9.89) (5.44) (5.23) (7.17) (6.75) (6.50) (5.84)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.114*** 0.123*** 0.110***
(4.80) (6.55) (5.55)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.349*** -0.357*** -0.329***
(4.23) (4.74) (4.80)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.101*** 0.118*** 0.094***
(3.61) (4.02) (3.27)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.295*** -0.310*** -0.258***
(3.31) (3.57) (2.98)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.197*** 0.204*** 0.222***
(3.35) (4.31) (4.45)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.574* -0.593** -0.603**
(1.92) (2.32) (2.34)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.118** 0.111** 0.103*
(1.99) (2.14) (1.94)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.452* -0.435** -0.409*
(1.96) (2.04) (1.90)
Observations 147,271 146,823 146,823 147,271 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823
R2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.16

9
Table IA.II Alternative Investment Measures (Continued)

Panel B: R&D

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.021*** 0.015*** 0.015*** 0.018*** 0.016*** 0.011*** 0.010*** 0.010*** 0.011***
(14.00) (6.72) (8.26) (6.15) (6.80) (2.99) (2.98) (2.73) (3.84)
Cash Flow -0.074*** -0.050*** -0.054*** -0.053*** -0.052*** -0.028** -0.030** -0.031** -0.037***
(13.15) (6.57) (7.53) (4.95) (5.63) (2.01) (2.47) (2.47) (3.08)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.007**
(3.23) (3.04) (2.57)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.027*** -0.027*** -0.025***
(3.68) (3.01) (2.93)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.007*** 0.008*** 0.007***
(3.37) (3.25) (2.65)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.024*** -0.025*** -0.021**
(3.23) (2.89) (2.39)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.006 0.006 0.007*
(1.28) (1.50) (1.75)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.037** -0.038** -0.039**
(1.97) (2.40) (2.53)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.010*** 0.009*** 0.009***
(3.31) (3.62) (3.52)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.036*** -0.035*** -0.032***
(3.05) (3.45) (3.24)
Observations 147,273 146,825 146,825 147,273 146,825 146,825 146,825 146,825 146,825
R2 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

10
Table IA.II Alternative Investment Measures (Continued)

Panel C: Non-Cash Asset Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.259*** 0.223*** 0.232*** 0.194*** 0.222*** 0.153*** 0.190*** 0.155*** 0.202***
(17.58) (19.72) (20.42) (13.99) (14.50) (8.98) (11.47) (8.38) (11.95)
Cash Flow 0.418*** 0.535*** 0.518*** 0.575*** 0.612*** 0.699*** 0.712*** 0.688*** 0.679***
(7.59) (8.78) (10.39) (7.54) (7.48) (6.80) (7.03) (7.38) (7.23)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.040*** 0.045*** 0.039***
(3.89) (3.59) (3.57)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.129** -0.133** -0.115*
(2.00) (2.08) (1.87)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.033*** 0.042*** 0.030*
(2.71) (2.78) (1.95)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.120** -0.127** -0.092*
(2.25) (2.41) (1.75)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.110*** 0.112*** 0.119***
(4.76) (6.01) (6.39)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.266* -0.273* -0.278**
(1.76) (1.96) (1.98)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.058** 0.055** 0.053**
(2.26) (2.40) (2.21)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.315*** -0.310*** -0.299***
(2.73) (2.82) (2.76)
Observations 147,243 146,795 146,795 147,243 146,795 146,795 146,795 146,795 146,795
R2 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

11
Table IA.II Alternative Investment Measures (Continued)

Panel D: Capex, R&D, and SG&A

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.161*** 0.128*** 0.135*** 0.133*** 0.146*** 0.097*** 0.115*** 0.100*** 0.124***
(21.56) (15.54) (14.81) (10.76) (12.52) (7.16) (9.38) (6.83) (10.01)
Cash Flow -0.023 0.066 0.064 0.080 0.094 0.175* 0.172* 0.178** 0.158*
(0.57) (1.16) (1.27) (1.27) (1.31) (1.89) (1.82) (2.13) (1.81)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.037*** 0.039*** 0.037***
(4.51) (3.95) (3.81)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.099* -0.102 -0.090
(1.87) (1.61) (1.47)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.032*** 0.036*** 0.031**
(2.84) (2.93) (2.42)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.104** -0.109** -0.087*
(2.22) (2.09) (1.74)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.047** 0.049*** 0.054***
(2.45) (2.89) (3.29)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.178 -0.184* -0.189*
(1.54) (1.73) (1.79)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.024 0.021 0.018
(1.47) (1.50) (1.28)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.193** -0.189** -0.178**
(2.03) (2.07) (2.00)
Observations 147,273 146,825 146,825 147,273 146,825 146,825 146,825 146,825 146,825
R2 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

12
Table IA.III
Regression Results with Cash
This table replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with additional independent variables of cash and cash interactions with Expansion, Indus.Prod., Sentiment and
CSI. The dependent variables are Investment (Panel A), Employee Growth (Panel B), Equity Issues (Panel C), and Debt Issues (Panel D). Panel E reports Chow
tests for coefficient differences between Panels C and D. Investment, Employee Growth, Equity Issues and Debt Issues are measured as in Tables II to V. Cash is
the firm's cash holdings at the beginning-of-year. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in
an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise. Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive
during the last 12 months, and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based on the first principal
component of six sentiment variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to the business cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment
index. We regress the Michigan index on several business cycle variables and use the residual as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI
based on their yearly values. The rank variables are calculated as (Rank of Sentiment or CSI -1)/Maximum Rank. Rank variables are positive, so we can therefore
interact the indices with variables that have both positive and negative values. Tobin’s q (q) is measured as the log of: the market value of equity, minus the book
value equity, plus the book value of assets, all scaled by the book value of assets. q is lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization,
scaled by lagged assets. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in
parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

13
Table IA.III Regression Results with Cash (Continued)

Panel A: Total Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.399*** 0.296*** 0.315*** 0.275*** 0.305*** 0.162*** 0.214*** 0.161*** 0.241***
(13.80) (16.50) (22.30) (9.20) (9.51) (5.30) (6.68) (4.21) (7.13)
Cash Flow 0.341*** 0.678*** 0.612*** 0.712*** 0.688*** 1.066*** 0.983*** 1.018*** 0.887***
(4.01) (8.17) (8.13) (4.90) (4.72) (6.66) (6.27) (6.25) (5.50)
Cash 0.079*** 0.028 0.046 0.101 0.193*** 0.032 0.123* 0.064 0.137**
(4.54) (0.57) (0.94) (1.32) (3.71) (0.47) (1.90) (0.87) (2.08)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.116*** 0.123*** 0.109***
(4.38) (5.96) (4.99)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.374*** -0.382*** -0.343***
(3.90) (4.52) (4.44)
Expansion*Cash 0.056 0.059 0.068
(1.03) (1.16) (1.43)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.105*** 0.124*** 0.092***
(3.83) (4.36) (3.19)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.323*** -0.341*** -0.272***
(3.51) (3.87) (3.06)
Indus.Prod*Cash 0.035 0.033 0.065
(0.67) (0.63) (1.35)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.209*** 0.214*** 0.235***
(3.95) (4.86) (5.08)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.637** -0.655*** -0.670***
(2.16) (2.61) (2.65)
Sentiment*Cash -0.051 -0.026 -0.043
(0.35) (0.21) (0.34)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.159*** 0.149*** 0.143***
(2.81) (3.00) (2.81)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.566** -0.546*** -0.520**
(2.51) (2.64) (2.48)
CSI*Cash -0.220** -0.205** -0.220***
(2.52) (2.54) (2.59)
Observations 147,259 146,811 146,811 147,259 146,811 146,811 146,811 146,811 146,811
R2 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

14
Table IA.III Regression Results with Cash (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.123*** 0.102*** 0.110*** 0.085*** 0.097*** 0.062*** 0.079*** 0.066*** 0.087***
(15.16) (13.15) (19.70) (9.92) (9.76) (4.65) (6.82) (5.33) (8.44)
Cash Flow 0.265*** 0.399*** 0.381*** 0.388*** 0.379*** 0.530*** 0.500*** 0.519*** 0.466***
(7.36) (8.22) (10.14) (7.41) (6.44) (7.03) (6.46) (8.30) (7.06)
Cash 0.322*** 0.314*** 0.306*** 0.272*** 0.305*** 0.253*** 0.291*** 0.247*** 0.288***
(18.64) (8.97) (12.49) (8.73) (15.78) (6.94) (8.82) (7.08) (12.06)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.022** 0.024** 0.021**
(2.39) (2.46) (2.39)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.148*** -0.152*** -0.141***
(2.82) (2.83) (2.77)
Expansion*Cash 0.011 0.018 0.013
(0.36) (0.78) (0.50)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.015** 0.020** 0.012
(1.96) (2.41) (1.43)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.138*** -0.145*** -0.124***
(3.45) (3.70) (3.21)
Indus.Prod*Cash 0.021 0.026 0.022
(1.06) (1.43) (1.26)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.062*** 0.062*** 0.065***
(4.92) (5.06) (5.10)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.209** -0.218*** -0.226***
(2.34) (2.72) (2.83)
Sentiment*Cash 0.091** 0.099** 0.098**
(2.03) (2.46) (2.30)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.041*** 0.040*** 0.041***
(2.80) (2.84) (2.86)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.181** -0.173** -0.156**
(2.25) (2.31) (2.08)
CSI*Cash 0.028 0.033 0.027
(1.05) (1.30) (0.98)
Observations 138,537 138,100 138,100 138,537 138,100 138,100 138,100 138,100 138,100
R2 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

15
Table IA.III Regression Results with Cash (Continued)

Panel C: Share Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.259*** 0.173*** 0.191*** 0.159*** 0.186*** 0.065*** 0.109*** 0.068** 0.133***
(10.44) (10.15) (14.41) (7.05) (7.37) (2.64) (4.19) (2.33) (5.08)
Cash Flow -0.538*** -0.230*** -0.301*** -0.189 -0.257** 0.134 0.016 0.079 -0.081
(7.87) (4.42) (5.80) (1.59) (2.44) (1.09) (0.14) (0.62) (0.69)
Cash -0.048*** -0.076** -0.076*** -0.048 0.011 -0.094* -0.032 -0.083* -0.032
(2.92) (2.37) (2.83) (0.91) (0.31) (1.94) (0.71) (1.76) (0.81)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.097*** 0.103*** 0.092***
(4.24) (6.62) (5.68)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.342*** -0.349*** -0.318***
(4.37) (6.04) (5.97)
Expansion*Cash 0.030 0.036 0.039
(0.93) (1.16) (1.37)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.085*** 0.099*** 0.075***
(4.05) (4.83) (3.77)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.283*** -0.299*** -0.243***
(3.79) (4.55) (3.61)
Indus.Prod*Cash 0.030 0.032 0.049*
(1.11) (1.15) (1.85)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.166*** 0.170*** 0.186***
(3.40) (4.13) (4.29)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.600** -0.614*** -0.629***
(2.37) (2.94) (2.98)
Sentiment*Cash -0.009 0.012 -0.001
(0.09) (0.14) (0.01)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.122** 0.114** 0.109**
(2.38) (2.50) (2.33)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.457** -0.437** -0.414**
(2.32) (2.46) (2.29)
CSI*Cash -0.118* -0.104* -0.117*
(1.82) (1.65) (1.84)
Observations 146,076 145,628 145,628 146,076 145,628 145,628 145,628 145,628 145,628
R2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

16
Table IA.III Regression Results with Cash (Continued)

Panel D: Debt Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.118*** 0.110*** 0.110*** 0.090*** 0.096*** 0.080*** 0.089*** 0.076*** 0.091***
(18.64) (20.34) (17.14) (10.48) (11.73) (8.34) (10.04) (7.28) (9.99)
Cash Flow -0.007 0.005 0.004 0.020 0.068 0.032 0.071 0.032 0.068
(0.27) (0.11) (0.11) (0.47) (1.56) (0.57) (1.27) (0.66) (1.33)
Cash 0.101*** 0.087*** 0.107*** 0.144*** 0.179*** 0.134*** 0.161*** 0.156*** 0.173***
(9.68) (4.11) (4.51) (6.86) (9.87) (4.48) (6.17) (5.76) (6.49)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.010 0.012 0.008
(1.60) (1.54) (0.93)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.012 -0.012 -0.003
(0.32) (0.33) (0.08)
Expansion*Cash 0.016 0.011 0.021
(0.73) (0.46) (0.83)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.011 0.016** 0.007
(1.58) (1.97) (0.78)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.011 -0.012 0.002
(0.42) (0.45) (0.07)
Indus.Prod*Cash -0.007 -0.012 0.008
(0.29) (0.56) (0.42)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.050*** 0.051*** 0.054***
(4.79) (5.02) (5.40)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.045 -0.047 -0.046
(0.70) (0.72) (0.72)
Sentiment*Cash -0.082* -0.081* -0.086**
(1.94) (1.94) (2.01)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.041*** 0.040*** 0.039***
(3.59) (3.55) (3.38)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.125*** -0.125*** -0.127***
(2.67) (2.73) (2.83)
CSI*Cash -0.143*** -0.143*** -0.144***
(4.77) (4.93) (4.99)
Observations 147,205 146,757 146,757 147,205 146,757 146,757 146,757 146,757 146,757
R2 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

17
Table IA.III Regression Results with Cash (Continued)

Panel E: Issue versus Debt

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.141*** 0.063*** 0.081*** 0.069** 0.090*** -0.015 0.020 -0.008 0.042*
(0.000) (0.002) (0.000) (0.030) (0.002) (0.778) (0.246) (0.837) (0.072)
Cash Flow -0.531*** -0.235*** -0.305*** -0.209*** -0.325*** 0.102* -0.055*** 0.047* -0.149***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.063) (0.000) (0.057) (0.000)
Cash -0.149** -0.163 -0.183 -0.192 -0.168*** -0.228 -0.193* -0.239 -0.205**
(0.049) (0.776) (0.161) (0.619) (0.001) (0.918) (0.091) (0.340) (0.012)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.087** 0.090* 0.084***
(0.029) (0.010) (0.008)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.330*** -0.337*** -0.315***
(0.000) (0.003) (0.002)
Expansion*Cash 0.014 0.025 0.018
(0.388) (0.326) (0.241)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.074*** 0.083*** 0.068***
(0.006) (0.002) (0.008)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.272*** -0.287*** -0.245***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.001)
Indus.Prod*Cash 0.037*** 0.044 0.041
(0.000) (0.512) (0.701)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.116* 0.119* 0.132*
(0.075) (0.063) (0.042)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.555** -0.017** -0.583**
(0.042) (0.019) (0.012)
Sentiment*Cash 0.073 0.093 0.085
(0.095) (0.801) (0.999)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.081 0.074 0.07
(0.161) (0.191) (0.222)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.332* -0.312* -0.287
(0.075) (0.064) (0.112)
CSI*Cash 0.025*** 0.039*** 0.027***
(0.003) (0.001) (0.001)
F-stat 49.54 119.83 60.61 2.40 5.42 3.34 14.52 1.96 4.11
p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.079 0.001

18
Table IA.IV
Alternative Expansion Variables
This table replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with alternative variables for expansion. The dependent variables are Investment (Panel A), Employee Growth
(Panel B), Equity Issues (Panel C), Debt Issues (Panel D). Panel E reports Chow tests for coefficient differences between Panels C and D. Investment, Employee
Growth, Equity Issues, and Debt Issues are measured as in Tables II to V. Expansion2 is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one if at least nine of the 12
months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise. Expansion3 is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one
if all the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise. PosIndus_expansion is a yearly indicator variable
that is equal to one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion as defined by the NBER, and the average industrial production
growth in the previous 12 months is positive, and zero otherwise. Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive
during the last 12 months, and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based on the first principal
component of six sentiment variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to the business cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment
index. We regress the Michigan index on several business cycle variables and use the residual as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI
based on their yearly values. The rank variables are calculated as (Rank of Sentiment or CSI -1)/Maximum Rank. Rank variables are positive, so we can therefore
interact the indices with variables that have both positive and negative values. Tobin’s q (q) is measured as the log of: the market value of equity, minus the book
value equity, plus the book value of assets, all scaled by the book value of assets. q is lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization,
scaled by lagged assets. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in
parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

19
Table IA.IV Alternative Expansion Variables (Continued)

Panel A: Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.328*** 0.325*** 0.314*** 0.202*** 0.269*** 0.205*** 0.271*** 0.164*** 0.250***
(15.74) (15.83) (19.34) (5.25) (7.26) (5.66) (7.68) (3.95) (6.91)
Cash Flow 0.632*** 0.660*** 0.627*** 0.983*** 0.860*** 1.001*** 0.874*** 1.026*** 0.879***
(7.29) (7.17) (7.63) (5.79) (4.97) (5.92) (5.06) (5.92) (5.19)
Expansion2*q(t-1) 0.094*** 0.098*** 0.082**
(3.12) (2.94) (2.50)
Expansion2*Cash Flow -0.353*** -0.342*** -0.298***
(3.32) (3.34) (2.99)
Expansion3*q(t-1) 0.101*** 0.101*** 0.088***
(3.35) (3.18) (2.84)
Expansion3*Cash Flow -0.394*** -0.380*** -0.338***
(3.59) (3.67) (3.50)
PosIndus_expansion *q(t-1) 0.112*** 0.129*** 0.104***
(3.76) (4.11) (3.35)
PosIndus_expansion *Cash Flow -0.344*** -0.360*** -0.301***
(3.49) (3.80) (3.13)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.207*** 0.202*** 0.229***
(4.13) (4.09) (4.28)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.615** -0.603** -0.659**
(2.38) (2.37) (2.47)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.111** 0.103* 0.113**
(2.04) (1.95) (2.09)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.441** -0.420** -0.464**
(2.08) (2.01) (2.14)
Observations 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823
R2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

20
Table IA.IV Alternative Expansion Variables (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.120*** 0.119*** 0.123*** 0.074*** 0.096*** 0.075*** 0.096*** 0.070*** 0.095***
(21.89) (18.31) (20.41) (6.39) (9.43) (6.89) (9.66) (5.45) (9.35)
Cash Flow 0.393*** 0.400*** 0.389*** 0.530*** 0.478*** 0.534*** 0.479*** 0.547*** 0.484***
(9.79) (9.74) (9.39) (8.50) (6.92) (8.78) (7.09) (8.27) (6.90)
Expansion2*q(t-1) 0.023*** 0.025*** 0.018**
(3.11) (3.19) (2.42)
Expansion2*Cash Flow -0.158*** -0.154*** -0.139***
(3.57) (3.77) (3.55)
Expansion3*q(t-1) 0.025*** 0.025*** 0.019**
(3.23) (3.41) (2.55)
Expansion3*Cash Flow -0.169*** -0.165*** -0.150***
(3.76) (3.98) (3.86)
PosIndus_expansion *q(t-1) 0.020*** 0.026*** 0.017**
(2.61) (3.26) (2.10)
PosIndus_expansion *Cash Flow -0.153*** -0.160*** -0.138***
(3.53) (3.88) (3.41)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.076*** 0.075*** 0.081***
(5.36) (5.36) (5.33)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.242*** -0.237*** -0.261***
(3.11) (3.08) (3.20)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.047*** 0.046*** 0.049***
(3.12) (3.04) (3.23)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.163** -0.155** -0.172**
(2.16) (2.07) (2.25)
Observations 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111
R2 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

21
Table IA.IV Alternative Expansion Variables (Continued)

Panel C: Equity Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.195*** 0.195*** 0.185*** 0.092*** 0.147*** 0.097*** 0.151*** 0.063** 0.133***
(12.10) (11.90) (13.25) (2.92) (4.88) (3.28) (5.29) (1.98) (4.79)
Cash Flow -0.285*** -0.272*** -0.294*** 0.048 -0.099 0.052 -0.096 0.082 -0.087
(4.84) (4.53) (5.50) (0.35) (0.77) (0.39) (0.77) (0.61) (0.73)
Expansion2*q(t-1) 0.077*** 0.080*** 0.067***
(3.11) (3.19) (2.88)
Expansion2*Cash Flow -0.305*** -0.295*** -0.260***
(3.36) (3.57) (3.30)
Expansion3*q(t-1) 0.079*** 0.079*** 0.068***
(3.22) (3.26) (3.05)
Expansion3*Cash Flow -0.327*** -0.314*** -0.280***
(3.69) (3.86) (3.77)
PosIndus_expansion *q(t-1) 0.090*** 0.103*** 0.083***
(4.06) (4.71) (3.99)
PosIndus_expansion *Cash Flow -0.292*** -0.308*** -0.257***
(3.79) (4.48) (3.63)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.167*** 0.162*** 0.184***
(3.64) (3.57) (3.75)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.585*** -0.576*** -0.623***
(2.67) (2.64) (2.74)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.089* 0.084* 0.091*
(1.82) (1.75) (1.82)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.360** -0.346* -0.381**
(1.98) (1.90) (2.03)
Observations 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639
R2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

22
Table IA.IV Alternative Expansion Variables (Continued)

Panel D: Debt Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.116*** 0.113*** 0.114*** 0.091*** 0.105*** 0.089*** 0.103*** 0.086*** 0.102***
(16.98) (17.81) (17.00) (10.43) (13.10) (10.61) (13.16) (9.20) (12.15)
Cash Flow 0.013 0.023 0.008 0.028 0.059 0.038 0.067 0.027 0.058
(0.35) (0.61) (0.22) (0.53) (1.06) (0.71) (1.20) (0.49) (1.00)
Expansion2*q(t-1) 0.009 0.010 0.006
(1.47) (1.31) (0.77)
Expansion2*Cash Flow -0.025 -0.023 -0.014
(0.79) (0.75) (0.44)
Expansion3*q(t-1) 0.013** 0.013* 0.010
(2.19) (1.94) (1.38)
Expansion3*Cash Flow -0.038 -0.037 -0.026
(1.14) (1.13) (0.85)
PosIndus_expansion *q(t-1) 0.011 0.015* 0.010
(1.61) (1.92) (1.13)
PosIndus_expansion *Cash Flow -0.019 -0.019 -0.010
(0.57) (0.59) (0.32)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.042*** 0.042*** 0.045***
(4.14) (4.10) (4.58)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.026 -0.024 -0.028
(0.41) (0.38) (0.44)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.022* 0.020* 0.022**
(1.87) (1.79) (1.99)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.090* -0.086* -0.092*
(1.92) (1.83) (1.96)
Observations 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639
R2 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

23
Table IA.IV Alternative Expansion Variables (Continued)

Panel E: Issue versus Debt

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


q(t-1) 0.035*** 0.082*** 0.071*** 0.001 0.042** 0.008 0.048** -0.023 0.031**
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.422) (0.022) (0.418) (0.018) (0.660) (0.021)
Cash Flow -0.298*** -0.295*** -0.302*** 0.020** -0.158*** 0.014*** -0.163*** 0.055** -0.145***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.012) (0.000) (0.010) (0.000) (0.032) (0.000)
Expansion2*q(t-1) 0.068** 0.070** 0.061**
(0.034) (0.019) (0.012)
Expansion2*Cash Flow -0.28*** -0.272*** -0.246***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Expansion3*q(t-1) 0.066** 0.066*** 0.058***
(0.019) (0.011) (0.005)
Expansion3*Cash Flow -0.289*** -0.277*** -0.254***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
PosIndus_expansion *q(t-1) 0.079*** 0.088*** 0.073***
(0.008) (0.002) (0.003)
PosIndus_expansion *Cash Flow -0.273*** -0.289*** -0.247
(0.000) (0.000) (0.590)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.125* 0.120* 0.139*
(0.094) (0.098) (0.077)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.559** -0.552** -0.595**
(0.017) (0.018) (0.013)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.067 0.064 0.069
(0.165) (0.168) (0.145)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.270 -0.260 -0.289
(0.167) (0.186) (0.655)
F-stat 78.78 72.07 80.86 74.13 60.19 79.16 61.43 64.92 57.12
p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

24
Table IA.V
Baker and Wurgler Investor Sentiment Index Constructed via Simple Average
This table replicates regressions (4), (6) and (8) from Tables II to VI in the paper using a version of the Baker and
Wurgler sentiment variable that is constructed with simple averages. Investment, Employee Growth, Equity Issues,
and Debt Issues are measured as in Tables II to V. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one if at
least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise.
Industrial Production is equal to 1 if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last 12 months,
and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the average ranks of each of the six indices that are used to construct the investor
sentiment index in Baker and Wurgler (2006). The rank variables are calculated as (Rank of variable-1)/Maximum
Rank. Rank variables are positive, so we can therefore interact the indices with variables that have both positive and
negative values. The average rank of the six indices do not suffer generated regression problem. Tobin’s q (q) is
measured as the log of: the market value of equity, minus the book value equity, plus the book value of assets, all
scaled by the book value of assets. q is lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization,
scaled by lagged assets. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm
and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant
at 1%.

Panel A: Investment and Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)


Investment Employment
q(t-1) 0.167*** 0.106*** 0.108** 0.066*** 0.057*** 0.058***
(4.30) (2.74) (2.47) (4.63) (3.90) (3.79)
Cash Flow 1.008*** 1.148*** 1.119*** 0.498*** 0.560*** 0.559***
(5.05) (5.62) (5.27) (6.28) (6.17) (6.37)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.452*** 0.409*** 0.421*** 0.141*** 0.132*** 0.133***
(5.49) (4.97) (5.20) (4.83) (4.22) (4.32)
Sentiment*Cash -1.313*** -1.122** -1.127** -0.466*** -0.394** -0.392**
flow (2.81) (2.29) (2.39) (2.76) (2.18) (2.18)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.094*** 0.015
(5.01) (1.64)
Expansion*Cash -0.263*** -0.108**
Flow (3.15) (2.02)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.094*** 0.015**
(3.83) (2.06)
Indus.Prod.*Cash -0.244*** -0.116***
Flow (3.04) (2.81)
Observations 147,271 146,823 146,823 138,548 138,111 138,111
R2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.11 0.11

25
Table IA.V Baker and Wurgler Investor Sentiment Index Constructed via Simple Average
(Continued)

Panel B: Share and Debt Issues

(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)


Shares Issues Debt Issues
q(t-1) 0.068** 0.019 0.022 0.097*** 0.090*** 0.091***
(2.33) (0.63) (0.67) (8.39) (8.01) (7.34)
Cash Flow 0.100 0.223 0.195 -0.056 -0.043 -0.057
(0.63) (1.42) (1.20) (1.04) (0.78) (1.08)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.359*** 0.324*** 0.334*** 0.068*** 0.063*** 0.066***
(4.83) (4.50) (4.69) (4.16) (3.51) (3.66)
Sentiment*Cash -1.256*** -1.091*** -1.100*** 0.041 0.059 0.046
flow (3.22) (2.77) (2.89) (0.38) (0.52) (0.40)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.077*** 0.011**
(5.14) (2.18)
Expansion*Cash -0.228*** -0.024
Flow (4.78) (0.70)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.075*** 0.010
(4.39) (1.29)
Indus.Prod.*Cash -0.207*** -0.002
Flow (4.24) (0.05)
Observations 146,087 145,639 145,639 148,955 148,497 148,497
R2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06

26
Table IA.V Baker and Wurgler Investor Sentiment Index Constructed via Simple Average
(Continued)

Panel C: Issue versus Debt

(1) (2) (3)


q(t-1) -0.029 -0.071 -0.069
(0.608) (0.896) (0.955)
Cash Flow 0.156* 0.266* 0.252*
(0.079) (0.048) (0.066)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.291* 0.261* 0.268*
(0.023) (0.058) (0.051)
Sentiment*Cash flow -1.297** -1.15* -1.146*
(0.044) (0.105) (0.096)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.066**
(0.047)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.204***
(0.009)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.065*
(0.065)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.205***
(0.001)
F-stat 71.50 56.45 55.96
p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000

27
Table IA.VI
Non-Orthogonalized Sentiment Indices

This table replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with non-orthogonalized sentiment indices. The dependent variables
are Investment (Panel A), Employee Growth (Panel B), Equity Issues (Panel C), and Debt Issues (Panel D). Panel E
reports Chow tests for coefficient differences between Panels C and D. Investment, Employee Growth, Equity Issues,
and Debt Issues are measured as in Tables II to V. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one if at
least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise.
Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last 12 months,
and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based
on the first principal component of six sentiment variables. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer
sentiment index. Rank variables are created for the sentiment indices, so that all of the values are positive. We can
therefore interact the indices with variables that have both positive and negative values. Tobin’s q (q) is measured as
the log of: the market value of equity, minus the book value equity, plus the book value of assets, all scaled by the
book value of assets. q is lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization, scaled by
lagged assets. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year.
Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

Panel A: Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.293*** 0.299*** 0.173*** 0.249*** 0.190*** 0.265***
(7.40) (9.20) (4.78) (9.84) (4.21) (8.78)
Cash Flow 0.593*** 0.725*** 0.977*** 0.862*** 0.867*** 0.810***
(3.27) (5.20) (5.26) (7.60) (4.26) (6.00)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.131*** 0.083***
(6.13) (3.47)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.406*** -0.220**
(5.17) (2.52)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.119*** 0.076**
(3.51) (2.51)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.330*** -0.178*
(3.28) (1.90)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.183** 0.190*** 0.197***
(2.49) (3.24) (3.18)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.421 -0.453 -0.416
(1.21) (1.54) (1.35)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.173*** 0.134** 0.126**
(3.13) (2.22) (2.22)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.631*** -0.533** -0.528**
(2.88) (2.20) (2.23)
Observations 147,271 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823
R2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

28
Table IA.VI Non-orthogonalized Sentiment and CSI (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.095*** 0.104*** 0.068*** 0.099*** 0.074*** 0.101***
(9.35) (10.45) (5.84) (13.37) (5.97) (11.80)
Cash Flow 0.387*** 0.417*** 0.542*** 0.469*** 0.509*** 0.456***
(6.14) (6.97) (6.85) (7.60) (6.84) (7.77)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.028*** 0.008
(3.65) (0.90)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.161*** -0.084*
(3.21) (1.75)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.024*** 0.005
(2.69) (0.57)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.145*** -0.089**
(3.36) (2.20)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.075*** 0.077*** 0.078***
(4.45) (5.15) (5.01)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.211** -0.227*** -0.211**
(2.11) (2.64) (2.30)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.058*** 0.055*** 0.057***
(4.06) (3.31) (3.55)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.255*** -0.216*** -0.196**
(3.25) (2.61) (2.32)
Observations 138,548 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111
R2 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

29
Table IA.VI Non-orthogonalized Sentiment and CSI (Continued)

Panel C: Share Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.169*** 0.172*** 0.071** 0.131*** 0.087** 0.145***
(5.44) (6.78) (2.33) (6.98) (2.41) (6.61)
Cash Flow -0.294* -0.203** 0.049 -0.076 -0.056 -0.129
(1.94) (2.01) (0.33) (1.02) (0.35) (1.39)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.106*** 0.068***
(6.54) (3.76)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.363*** -0.203***
(5.98) (3.47)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.095*** 0.060***
(4.00) (3.10)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.287*** -0.156**
(3.73) (2.32)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.144** 0.150*** 0.155***
(2.25) (2.83) (2.74)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.409 -0.436* -0.403
(1.34) (1.71) (1.52)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.140*** 0.108* 0.103*
(2.71) (1.95) (1.92)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.549*** -0.458** -0.458**
(2.83) (2.22) (2.20)
Observations 146,087 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639
R2 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

30
Table IA.VI Non-orthogonalized Sentiment and CSI (Continued)

Panel D: Debt Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.099*** 0.107*** 0.087*** 0.104*** 0.088*** 0.105***
(11.15) (14.28) (9.95) (13.37) (9.72) (13.16)
Cash Flow -0.008 0.040 0.011 0.035 0.003 0.034
(0.16) (0.90) (0.17) (0.75) (0.05) (0.74)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.014** 0.005
(2.12) (0.68)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.019 0.008
(0.57) (0.23)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.013 0.005
(1.56) (0.48)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.012 0.013
(0.41) (0.46)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.041*** 0.042*** 0.042***
(3.21) (3.58) (3.79)
Sentiment*Cash Flow 0.004 0.001 0.003
(0.05) (0.01) (0.04)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.027*** 0.024** 0.024**
(3.06) (2.27) (2.06)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.077 -0.081 -0.087*
(1.56) (1.52) (1.86)
Observations 146,087 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639
R2 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

31
Table IA.VI Non-orthogonalized Sentiment and CSI (Continued)

Panel E: Issue versus Debt

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.070** 0.065*** -0.016 0.027*** -0.001 0.040***
(0.027) (0.001) (0.547) (0.008) (0.332) (0.001)
Cash Flow -0.286*** -0.243*** 0.038** -0.111*** -0.059*** -0.163***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.019) (0.000) (0.005) (0.000)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.092*** 0.063**
(0.001) (0.020)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.344*** -0.211*
(0.001) (0.081)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.082** 0.055**
(0.006) (0.043)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.275*** -0.169*
(0.000) (0.070)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.103 0.108 0.113
(0.353) (0.259) (0.264)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.413 -0.437 -0.406
(0.170) (0.121) (0.136)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.113 0.084 0.079
(0.301) (0.135) (0.131)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.513** -0.377* -0.371*
(0.020) (0.066) (0.108)
F-stat 69.09 72.33 62.48 79.95 57.66 64.66
p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

32
Table IA.VII
Regression Results with Sentiment Index Adjusted by Adding a Constant

This table replicates Tables II to VI in the paper with the sentiment indices adjusted by adding a constant. The
dependent variables are Investment (Panel A), Employee Growth (Panel B), Equity Issues (Panel C), and Debt Issues
(Panel D). Panel E reports Chow tests for coefficient differences between Panels C and D. Investment, Employee
Growth, Equity Issues, and Debt Issues are measured as in Tables II to V. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that
is equal to one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER,
and zero otherwise. Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive
during the last 12 months, and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The
sentiment index is based on the first principal component of six sentiment variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to
the business cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. We regress the Michigan
index on several business cycle variables and use the residual as the CSI. We add the minimum value of each sentiment
index to its yearly value so that each index will always have a nonnegative value, and we can therefore interact the
indices with variables that have both positive and negative values. Tobin’s q (q) is measured as the log of: the market
value of equity, minus the book value equity, plus the book value of assets, all scaled by the book value of assets. q is
lagged one year. Cash Flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization, scaled by lagged assets. All regressions
include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported
in parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

33
Table IA.VII Regression Results with Sentiment Index Adjusted by Adding a Constant
(Continued)

Panel A Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.315*** 0.256*** 0.291*** 0.136*** 0.184*** 0.133***
(19.36) (5.77) (6.35) (3.28) (4.05) (2.67)
Cash Flow 0.618*** 0.835*** 0.802*** 1.224*** 1.137*** 1.174***
(7.81) (3.73) (3.91) (6.11) (5.47) (5.50)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.130*** 0.123***
(7.33) (5.85)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.407*** -0.379***
(6.06) (5.27)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.111*** 0.128***
(3.71) (4.45)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.332*** -0.358***
(3.44) (4.06)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.056*** 0.058*** 0.064***
(3.18) (3.72) (4.01)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.196** -0.205*** -0.211***
(2.04) (2.58) (2.68)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.412** 0.400**
(2.13) (2.45)
CSI*Cash Flow -1.694** -1.672**
(2.29) (2.50)
Observations 146,823 147,271 146,823 146,823 146,823 146,823
R2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

34
Table IA.VII Regression Results with Sentiment Index Adjusted by Adding a Constant
(Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.123*** 0.085*** 0.098*** 0.060*** 0.076*** 0.060***
(20.43) (6.64) (7.11) (4.44) (5.89) (4.09)
Cash Flow 0.384*** 0.450*** 0.441*** 0.604*** 0.572*** 0.601***
(9.76) (6.19) (5.56) (7.69) (6.23) (8.27)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.027*** 0.025***
(4.00) (3.77)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.159*** -0.149***
(3.47) (3.18)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.020*** 0.026***
(2.59) (3.70)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.145*** -0.156***
(3.52) (4.15)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.021*** 0.021*** 0.022***
(4.77) (4.70) (4.85)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.074*** -0.079*** -0.082***
(2.79) (3.21) (3.37)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.150*** 0.149***
(3.07) (3.27)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.654*** -0.646***
(2.62) (2.79)
Observations 138,111 138,548 138,111 138,111 138,111 138,111
R2 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

35
Table IA.VII Regression Results with Sentiment Index Adjusted by Adding a Constant
(Continued)

Panel C: Share Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.185*** 0.136*** 0.163*** 0.038 0.076* 0.038
(13.43) (3.68) (4.19) (1.05) (1.90) (0.91)
Cash Flow -0.295*** -0.055 -0.155 0.295* 0.145 0.244
(5.56) (0.30) (0.98) (1.85) (0.90) (1.46)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.106*** 0.100***
(7.56) (6.17)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.366*** -0.341***
(7.70) (6.56)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.089*** 0.102***
(4.02) (5.03)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.289*** -0.316***
(3.78) (4.91)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.046*** 0.047*** 0.052***
(2.72) (3.19) (3.42)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.191** -0.199*** -0.205***
(2.38) (3.10) (3.22)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.344* 0.334**
(1.94) (2.15)
CSI*Cash Flow -1.401** -1.379**
(2.15) (2.37)
Observations 145,639 146,087 145,639 145,639 145,639 145,639
R2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16

36
Table IA.VII Regression Results with Sentiment Index Adjusted by Adding a Constant
(Continued)

Panel D: Debt Issues

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


q(t-1) 0.115*** 0.093*** 0.106*** 0.081*** 0.095*** 0.079***
(16.52) (8.96) (11.11) (7.58) (10.14) (7.60)
Cash Flow 0.002 0.017 0.074 0.034 0.088 0.028
(0.05) (0.26) (1.32) (0.45) (1.33) (0.39)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.014** 0.012**
(2.48) (2.04)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.017 -0.015
(0.52) (0.45)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.011 0.015**
(1.54) (2.07)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.011 -0.011
(0.35) (0.37)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.012*** 0.012*** 0.013***
(4.12) (4.04) (4.54)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.009 -0.010 -0.009
(0.40) (0.42) (0.41)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.066** 0.065**
(1.99) (2.09)
CSI*Cash Flow -0.300** -0.301**
(2.02) (2.02)
Observations 146,769 147,217 146,769 146,769 146,769 146,769
R2 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

37
Table IA.VII Regression Results with Sentiment Index Adjusted by Adding a Constant
(Continued)

Panel E: Issue versus Debt

(3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


q(t-1) 0.043 0.057 -0.043 -0.019 -0.041 0.006
(0.273) (0.041) (0.839) (0.435) (0.966) (0.207)
Cash Flow -0.072*** -0.229*** 0.261 0.057** 0.216 -0.048***
(0.009) (0.001) (0.350) (0.039) (0.363) (0.005)
Expansion*q(t-1) 0.092*** 0.088***
(0.000) (0.001)
Expansion*Cash Flow -0.349*** -0.326***
(0.001) (0.001)
Indus.Prod* q(t-1) 0.087*** 0.073***
(0.002) (0.004)
Indus.Prod.*Cash Flow -0.305*** -0.255***
(0.000) (0.002)
Sentiment* q(t-1) 0.034 0.035 0.039*
(0.152) (0.115) (0.091)
Sentiment*Cash Flow -0.182** -0.189*** -0.196***
(0.018) (0.001) (0.002)
CSI* q(t-1) 0.278 0.269 0.25
(0.157) (0.492) (0.527)
CSI*Cash Flow -1.101* -1.078* -0.987
(0.087) (0.069) (0.120)
F-stat 71.72 63.29 69.38 74.02 71.51 59.83
p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

38
Table IA.VIII
Size, Investment, and Employment Growth

The table reports regression results in which the dependent variables are Investment (Panel A) and Employee Growth (Panel B). The regressors are a size dummy,
interactions between the size dummy and the investor sentiment and business cycle variables, and year and firm fixed effects. Size is a firm year dummy variable
that equals one if the firm's sales at the beginning of that year is not ranked in the top quintile, and zero otherwise. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is
equal to one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise. Industrial Production is
equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last 12 months, and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker
and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based on the first principal component of six sentiment variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to the business cycle.
CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. We regress the Michigan index on several business cycle variables and use the residual
as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI based on their yearly values. The rank variables are calculated as (Rank of Sentiment or CSI -
1)/Maximum Rank. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in
parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

Panel A: Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


Size 0.112*** 0.038* 0.054*** 0.050*** 0.072*** -0.030 -0.023 0.003 0.029
(8.85) (1.81) (3.77) (2.63) (3.52) (1.21) (1.04) (0.10) (1.33)
Size*Expansion 0.082*** 0.085*** 0.080***
(3.38) (3.43) (3.18)
Size*Indus.Prod 0.071*** 0.078*** 0.067***
(3.89) (4.16) (3.64)
Size*Sentiment 0.122*** 0.127*** 0.139***
(3.02) (3.37) (3.87)
Size*CSI 0.076* 0.071* 0.056
(1.68) (1.67) (1.33)
Observations 167,949 167,480 167,480 167,949 167,480 167,480 167,480 167,480 167,480
R2 4.50 4.58 4.60 4.56 4.53 4.65 4.68 4.60 4.62

39
Table IA.VIII Size, Investment, and Employment Growth (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


Size 0.066*** 0.030*** 0.037*** 0.056*** 0.052*** 0.019** 0.022*** 0.019** 0.030***
(13.19) (4.16) (6.20) (7.23) (7.34) (2.51) (3.40) (2.48) (4.74)
Size*Expansion 0.039*** 0.039*** 0.038***
(5.31) (5.39) (5.01)
Size*Indus.Prod 0.035*** 0.036*** 0.034***
(5.33) (5.57) (4.99)
Size*Sentiment 0.019 0.021* 0.027**
(1.28) (1.65) (2.37)
Size*CSI 0.025** 0.023* 0.015
(1.96) (1.96) (1.36)
Observations 152,181 151,729 151,729 152,181 151,729 151,729 151,729 151,729 151,729
R2 4.65 4.74 4.76 4.66 4.67 4.74 4.78 4.75 4.77

40
Table IA.IX
Rating, Investment, and Employment Growth

The table reports regression results in which the dependent variables are Investment (Panel A) and Employee Growth (Panel B). The regressors are a ratings
dummy, interactions between the ratings dummy and the investor sentiment and business cycle variables, and year and firm fixed effects. Rating is a firm year
dummy variable that equals one if the firm is not rated by S&P or the firm's credit rating is below BBB-, and zero otherwise. Ratings data from the beginning of
the year. Expansion is a yearly indicator variable that is equal to one if at least 6 of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the
NBER, and zero otherwise. Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last 12 months, and zero
otherwise. Sentiment is the sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based on the first principal component of six sentiment
variables, each adjusted to be orthogonal to the business cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. We regress the Michigan
index on several business cycle variables and use the residual as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI based on their yearly values. The
rank variables are calculated as (Rank of Sentiment or CSI -1)/Maximum Rank. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered
on both firm and year. Robust t-statistics are reported in parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

Panel A: Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


Rating 0.014* -0.040*** -0.035** -0.051** -0.036** -0.107*** -0.097*** -0.088*** -0.076***
(1.72) (3.40) (2.55) (2.19) (2.14) (5.57) (3.96) (5.37) (4.26)
Rating*Expansion 0.060*** 0.061*** 0.059***
(6.45) (6.24) (7.19)
Rating*Indus.Prod 0.060*** 0.059*** 0.056***
(4.71) (4.08) (4.76)
Rating*Sentiment 0.127*** 0.129*** 0.122***
(3.12) (4.09) (3.70)
Rating*CSI 0.088*** 0.087*** 0.079***
(4.01) (4.65) (4.90)
Observations 82,172 81,727 81,727 82,172 81,727 81,727 81,727 81,727 81,727
R2 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

41
Table IA.IX Rating, Investment, and Employment Growth (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


Rating 0.014*** -0.017** -0.015** -0.007 -0.010 -0.038*** -0.034*** -0.040*** -0.034***
(3.32) (2.57) (2.04) (0.51) (1.26) (3.36) (2.81) (6.00) (4.98)
Rating*Expansion 0.034*** 0.034*** 0.033***
(5.65) (5.65) (6.24)
Rating*Indus.Prod 0.035*** 0.034*** 0.033***
(4.06) (3.84) (4.07)
Rating*Sentiment 0.041 0.041** 0.038*
(1.60) (1.98) (1.87)
Rating*CSI 0.043*** 0.042*** 0.037***
(3.12) (3.74) (3.73)
Observations 78,649 78,216 78,216 78,649 78,216 78,216 78,216 78,216 78,216
R2 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

42
Table IA.X
Dividend Payment, Investment, and Employment Growth

The table reports regression results in which the dependent variables are Investment (Panel A) and Employee Growth (Panel B). The regressors are a dividend
dummy, interactions between the dividend dummy and the investor sentiment and business cycle variables, and year and firm fixed effects. Div is a dummy
variable that equals one if the firm pays cash dividends, and zero otherwise. Cash dividends are measured at the beginning of the year. Expansion is a yearly
indicator variable that is equal to one if at least six of the 12 months during the year are in an economic expansion, as defined by the NBER, and zero otherwise.
Industrial Production is equal to one if industrial production growth was on average positive during the last 12 months, and zero otherwise. Sentiment is the
sentiment index from Baker and Wurgler (2006). The sentiment index is based on the first principal component of six sentiment variables, each adjusted to be
orthogonal to the business cycle. CSI is based on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. We regress the Michigan index on several business cycle
variables and use the residual as the CSI. We create rank variables for both Sentiment and CSI based on their yearly values. The rank variables are calculated as
(Rank of Sentiment or CSI -1)/Maximum Rank. All regressions include firm and year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered on both firm and year. Robust t-
statistics are reported in parentheses. * Significant at 10%; ** Significant at 5%; *** Significant at 1%.

Panel A: Investment

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


Div -0.013 -0.096*** -0.073*** -0.106*** -0.029 -0.194*** -0.182*** -0.105** -0.076**
(1.36) (2.61) (2.65) (3.66) (0.92) (4.67) (4.82) (2.35) (2.04)
Div*Expansion 0.094** 0.097*** 0.092**
(2.43) (2.58) (2.35)
Div*Indus.Prod 0.075** 0.086*** 0.074**
(2.46) (2.91) (2.39)
Div*Sentiment 0.188*** 0.192*** 0.203***
(3.37) (3.62) (3.90)
Div*CSI 0.033 0.023 0.008
(0.52) (0.38) (0.13)
Observations 166,992 166,992 166,992 166,992 166,992 166,992 166,992 166,992 166,992
R2 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04

43
Table IA.X Dividend Payment, Investment, and Employment Growth (Continued)

Panel B: Employment Growth

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


Div 0.001 -0.027* -0.021** -0.022** -0.003 -0.051*** -0.048*** -0.029* -0.021*
(0.20) (1.91) (2.18) (2.43) (0.39) (3.97) (4.71) (1.86) (1.85)
Div*Expansion 0.031** 0.032** 0.031**
(2.17) (2.32) (2.12)
Div*Indus.Prod 0.027** 0.029*** 0.027**
(2.47) (2.86) (2.41)
Div*Sentiment 0.047** 0.048** 0.051***
(2.47) (2.54) (2.93)
Div*CSI 0.008 0.005 -0.001
(0.47) (0.28) (0.05)
Observations 151,510 151,510 151,510 151,510 151,510 151,510 151,510 151,510 151,510
R2 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04

44
REFERENCES
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006, Investor Sentiment and the cross-section of stock
returns, Journal of Finance 61, 1645-1680.

45

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