Havern - Munoz - Saroli 1

The Great Pauldini

Hello carnival owner! In this analysis of our product, the probabilities of this wonderful

form of entertainment will be calculated and presented. Theoretical (probabilities in theory) and

experimental probabilities (from actually conducting trials of the game) will be recorded to prove

that this game is well worth every penny. Just like the Late Great Houdini, this game is sure to

attract a plethora of customers and become the hottest story in the news. In memory of Houdini,

the game title has been decided as The Great Pauldini.

The Great Pauldini is a fantastic adventure for all ages. Enjoy the wonders of magic while

playing the game. It goes no further than three stages and all players win if they pass the first

stage, regardless of what happens later in the game. This game involves ping pong balls in a

magician’s hat, a deck of cards with an automatic shuffler, and a wheel with 5 slots. Directions to

this excellent game are as follows:

1. Place the handkerchief over the hat, shake the hat, and pull one ping pong ball out of it by

putting your hand underneath the handkerchief and turning your head away.

2. If the ball has a bunny drawn on it, place the ball back into the hat and move on to the

next step. If the ball does not have a bunny drawn on it place the ball back in the hat and

pay to play again.

3. Place the deck of cards into the automatic card shuffler and let the cards be shuffled.

4. Remove the cards from the automatic shuffler and pick any desired card.

5. If the card is an ace, two, or three of any suit, put the card back into the deck and split the

deck in half, placing each half on one side of the card shuffler. Then move onto the next

stage. If the card is not an ace, two, or three still cut the deck and place each half on the

card shuffler as well as receive $3.

 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 2

6. Chose a slot on the wheel and spin the wheel in one direction. Gently roll the ball in the

opposite direction of the wheel.

7. If the ball lands on your chosen slot, you win and receive $15! Given the wheel does not

land on your slot, you win $5 too!

8. If perhaps several ping pong balls are removed from the hat, the deck of cards spill, or the

spinner falls, then that specific stage must be redone.

In reality, the only rule is to abide by these directions and follow no others. Do not stray

from the directions at all, in any circumstances. For the analyzation of this proposed probability

miracle, the results will be given as if it was the player’s point of view, not the operator’s.

Figure 1. Illustration of The Great Pauldini

Figure 1 gives a quick snapshot as to what this beautiful carnival game looks like. A

lovely roulette wheel that was edited by hand and an electronic card shuffler are important
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 3

components to this game. The color of the ping pong balls is not an important factor because the

player will remove a ball from the hat without the ability to even see the balls.

To even start to fathom how extraordinary this form of entertainment is, the theoretical

probability will be computed. The theoretical probability is what the results would be in theory,

without actually playing the game. One such way to easily find this probability is with a tree

diagram. In a tree diagram, each stage will show the possible outcomes of what could happen

next, creating a branching out pattern and hence the name a tree diagram.

Figure 2. Tree Diagram Of Carnival Game

What can seem confusing immediately is the solid line above the outcome. This line

simply means the probability when what is under the line is not true. In example, the first stage is

either picking the correct ball or not picking the correct ball. The P and parenthesis are proper

notation as the event is within the parenthesis. It is read as “the probability of the event

happening is” and then the probability. The event would be the words within the parenthesis.

Stage One’s setup required ten ping pong balls. Also, in the directions the player is said

to remove one ping pong ball, no more. Therefore, the denominator (or total number of

outcomes) is ten in the fraction. Contrary, the numerator is the total number of favorable

outcomes, such as choosing one of the four correct balls or not one of those balls, depending on

the event. In the latter, the number of outcomes that would favor not picking a correct ball is the

difference between the total and correct number of balls. Since there are ten balls and four are
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 4

correct, and ten minus four is six, the probability of not picking one of the four correct balls is

six out of ten. There are four correct balls and ten in total, so the probability of picking one of

those correct balls is four out of ten.

Branching from the outcome required to move onto the second stage are the probabilities

for Stage Two. These probabilities were calculated in the same logic and manner as Stage One’s.

To get past Stage Two, the player must pick an ace, two, or three, and has only one attempt.

There are four suits in a standard deck, each containing one of the desired cards. Therefore, there

are four aces, four twos, and four threes. Adding all the aces, twos, and threes up results in a sum

of 12. Once again, the denominator is the total number of outcomes and since there are fifty two

cards in a deck, there are fifty two possibilities. In the case of the probability of picking a correct

card, the numerator (or number of favorable outcomes) is twelve, found earlier. That is the

probability for picking an ace, two, or three given one try and the card can be from any suit. With

fifty two cards in a deck and twelve as the favorable outcome, the difference of total and

favorable will result in the total number of unfavorable outcomes, or fifty two minus twelve,

which is forty. So, the probability of not choosing an ace, two, or three is forty out of fifty two.

In the third and possibly most suspensive part of the game, the player must have picked

an ace, two, or three to move on, which is why in Figure 2 the branch extends from that specific

probability. With five slots and only one chance to spin, the denominator of the probabilities will

be five. There is only one favorable slot, meaning the probability of the spinner landing on that

chosen slot is one out of five. Contrarily, with only four slots left that you would not get the

chosen slot, the probability of the spinner not landing on the chosen slot if four out of five.

Table 1
Sample Space Of Game
{~P,P~A,PA~C,PAC}
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 5

There are a total of four different possibilities that can result from this game, as seen in

Table 1. The ~ symbol contains the same meaning as the solid line above the event, which means

the the event not happening. Looking back at Figure 2, there were three instances where the

player did not receive the grand prize and one instance where they went all the way. So, three

possibilities involve the ~ and one does not have the ~. The first possibility of not finishing the

game is not picking one of the four balls in Stage One, which is defined as ~P in Table 1, or not

picking the correct ping pong ball. From there, the player can pick the right ball, but not pick an

ace, two, or three, denoted as P~A. As the third instance of not completing the game, the player

can pick the correct ball, draw the right card, but not get their choice of slot in Stage Three,

denoted with PA~C. Finally, the only circumstance of finishing the game is when the player

passes all stages, written as PAC (correct ping pong ball, correct ace, two, or three, and correct

choice of slot) in Table 1. The probabilities for each of these occurring are following in Table 2 .

The exact costs of the game will be analyzed in Table 2 later, but the probability of

winning can be calculated now. The cost to play is $2 and the player will win more than $2 if

they pass Stage One, so the probability of winning Stage One is the same as winning the game

which is 4/10. Therefore, the only time the player would lose money is by not winning more than

$2. There is only one time this occurs: losing in Stage One; the probability of losing is then 6/10.

Table 2
Probability Distribution Chart
Money Player Earns -$2 +$1 +$3 +$13

P(Money) 0.6 0.3077 0.0738 0.0185

Table 2 will help aid in calculating the average how much money the player is expected

to gain per game, also known as the expected value. Referencing the directions at the top, if the

player puts in $2 and gains more that that, the have won money. How much they have won is
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 6

determined by subtracting 2 from it since it cost $2 to play the game. The decimal probabilities

were determined by multiplying across the fractions in Figure 2 that correspond to what part of

the game. For example, to determine the probability of winning $13 the faction for winning

Stage One (4/10), winning Stage Two (12/52), and winning Stage Three (1/5) are all multiplied.

These will be known as the theoretical probabilities, for they are what the probabilities would be

in theory without using experimental data.

6 6 40 6 12 4 6 12 1
𝐸($) = (−2 ∗ ) + (1 ∗ ∗ ) + (3 ∗ ∗ ∗ ) + (13 ∗ ∗ ∗ )
10 10 52 10 52 5 10 52 5
Figure 3. Expected Value Of Carnival Game

To calculate the expected value, denoted as E($) the probabilities of each event occurring

multiplied by how much money is either gained or lost must be added. Figure 3 shows the exact

fractions while Table 2 estimates them to four decimal places. After computing the math, the

result is E($) = -$0.43. This means, on average, the player can expect to lose 43 cents per game.

Table 3
Results Of 50 Trials
Outcome Times Occurred

Losing $2 on Stage One 32

Winning $1 on Stage Two 14

Winning $3 on Stage Three 2

Winning $15 on Stage Three 2

 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 7

Table 3 are the total number of times each outcome occurred when the carnival game was

played fifty times.

Table 4
Probabilities From 50 Trials
Money Player Earns -$2 +$1 +$3 +$13

P(Money) 0.64 0.28 0.04 0.04

Table 4 has two rows that are used in finding the expected value of this specific

simulation. The money each player receives or loses to the game was found using the same logic

that 2 must be subtracted from the advertised win amount since the game costs $2 to play. The

probability of each outcome was calculated by dividing how many times the outcome occurred in

Table 3 by 50, for there were 50 trials.

𝐸($) = (−2 ∗ 0.64 ) + (1 ∗ 0.28 ) + (3 ∗ 0.04 ) + (13 ∗ 0.04 )

Figure 4. Expected Value Of Carnival Game Through 50 Trials

Similar calculations to find the expected value of this simulation were used to find the

theoretical expected value of the carnival game. The money gained or lost was multiplied by its

probability and added to the remaining outcomes. In this case, the expected value of the carnival

game with 50 trials is -$0.36.

Table 5
500 trials
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 8

To run 500 simulation of the game, a TI - Nspire calculator spreadsheet was used. The

figures above show the first 5 trials and the last 5 trials. Since there are three rounds in the game

it was broken up into three parts. First was the simulation of picking ping pong balls out of the

hat. 500 random numbers were generated from 1 to 10. Since there was a 4 in 10 chance of

winning the ping pong game, if numbers one, two, three, or four were chosen that means the

round was won. The numbers were then sorted and out into ascending order. It was found how

many ones, twos, threes, and fours there were total. In this simulation there were 206 winning

numbers. That means out of 500 times the player moved on to round two 206 times. Next, to

simulate round two only 206 trials were ran because that is only how many times stage one was

won and the player cannot move on without winning round one. In the second column of the

spreadsheet numbers one through 26 were generated. Since in the card game pulling an ace, two,

or a three has a 12 out of 52 chance, that number was divided by two to deal with smaller

numbers making it 6 out of 26. The numbers were then sorted and put into ascending order. If a

number one through six was pulled that meant the second round was won. A number one through

six was pulled 46 times meaning round two was won and could advance to round three. To

simulate the third and final round, a random number 1 through 5 was generated for each slot on

the wheel. Since there is a one out of five chance of winning on the wheel, if a one was chosen

then the third round was one and a prize was given. In the 46 trials from winning round one and

two, eight ones were generated. Out of the 500 times the game was simulated, only four times

the player earned $13.

Table 6
Probabilities From Simulation
Money Player Earns -$2 +$1 +$3 +$13

P(Money) 0.588 0.318 0.078 0.016

 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 9

The table above shows the probabilities of how much money the player will earn or lose.

The probabilities were found by taking the number of times a certain amount of money was lost

or gained and dividing it by 500, the total number of trials. There is the highest probability of

losing two dollars. Out of 500 trials this is where no rounds were won. The probability of this

was 0.588 . The smallest probability is gaining $13 which is winning all rounds which has a

probability of 0.016.

𝐸($) = (−2 ∗ 0.588) + (1 * 0.318) + (3 * 0.078) + (13 * 0.016)

Figure 5. Equation to find cost per game on average

The equation above shows how to find the cost on average to play the game for the 500

simulated trials. Using the data from Table 4, each value of money gained or lost was multiplied

by its probability and then all of them were added together. Solving that equation gets a total of

about -0.41 or -41 cents. This means in the long run, the player will lose 41 cents per game. This

also means that the carnival owner makes 41 cents on average per game.

Another simulation was ran that contained 5000 trials, in other words, the game was

played 5000 times. Although the creators of The Great Pauldini would just relish playing it 5000

times, they had a busy schedule. So, a Java program was created to simulate this. The results

were recorded and are pictured below. Writing the code included an efficient and simple method

of the loop. A description of how the Java code was written can be found in the appendix.
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 10

Figure 6. Probabilities From Java Simulation

To run a five thousand trial simulation instead of playing the game five thousand times,

the Java program was used. Figure 6 summarizes the results from the Java simulation in a format

similar to the Table 4 and 3.

Table 7
Probability Chart From Code
Money Player Gains -$2 +$1 +$3 +$13

P(Money) 0.6044 0.3028 0.0720 0.0208

The expected value was calculated in the program, which used the same arithmetic as the

simulation with 500 and 50 trials. Table 7 combines the probabilities found by the program with

their corresponding money gains. To compute the expected value, the program did the following

calculation.

𝐸($) = (−2 ∗ 0.6044 ) + (1 ∗ 0.3028 ) + (3 ∗ 0.0720 ) + (13 ∗ 0.0208 )

Figure 7. Expected Value Of Carnival Game Through Java Simulation

The money amount gained or lost is multiplied by the found probability and added with

the remaining outcomes. When this calculation is complete, the expected value of the carnival

game is revealed to be -$0.42. Once again meaning the player loses $0.42 per game and the

carnival owner profits $0.42.

 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 11

These three simulations: the 50 trials, 500 on the calculator, and Java program prove a

probability principle known as the Law of Large Numbers. Each time in a simulation the number

of trials increased by 10 fold, the data analyzed approached the theoretical values, or the values

that would occur in theory using equations. All the results were recorded in a table similar to that

of Table 2 and the expected value in the case of each simulation were also calculated likewise to

Figure 3. Both Table 2 and Figure 3 represent the theoretical values of the carnival game.

Starting with the 50 trials, in Figure 4 and Table 4 the experimental values seem far off from the

theoretical ones. The experimental expected value was -$0.36 while the theoretical one was -

$0.43. Experimental probabilities were also far from the theoretical values, for in Table 4 the

probability of the last two stages are equal and in Table 2 they are about 0.6 apart. In the next

simulation, with the calculator, the experimental expected value was much more close to the

theoretical, only 0.2 off. The individual experimental probabilities also greatly approach the

theoretical ones, with the probabilities of winning $3 and $13 accurate to two decimal places.

Finally, the Java simulation was the most accurate, for 5000 trials were accounted for. The

experimental expected value was only one cent off and and the experimental probabilities were

accurate to two decimal places for the first three probabilities. All three simulations had fairly

close conclusions with the theoretical results and each simulated result grew closer to the

theoretical values than the last.

The Great Pauldini is a great game for people of all ages. The appeal of magic draws

people in from the start. The game has three stages, first pulling a ping pong ball out a hat, next

picking a random card from an automatic shuffler, and finally spinning a wheel. Once the first

stage is surpassed the player has an opportunity to win money no matter if they win or lose. The

appeal of winning money even when they lose truly entices people to want to play. The operator
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 12

of the game can just sit back and relax as the game itself can be ran smoothly by the player

alone. When the game was physically played 50 times when the math was done the average

money made per game for the owner was about 36 cents. When the game was simulated 500

times on the TI - Nspire, the average gain for the owner per game over the 500 rounds was 41

cents. From there, the expected value when the Java program simulated the game, the operator

should profit 42 cents per game in the case of 5,000 runs of the game. This means that the

operator will make about $2,100 dollars over the course of 5,000 games. The money made per

game by the owner approaches the theoretical expected value as more people play The Great

Pauldini. From 50, to 500, to 5000 the owner’s gain on average per round nears 43 cents or the

expected value. But, there will not only be 5000 trials, The Great Pauldini will want to be played

continuously by so many players because they see they can win so easily. Quite frankly, the

more times played, the more money the clever Pauldini will make.

The Great Pauldini was a project done together with each person having a leading role in

a certain spot. The idea, theme, and prices for the game were all collaborated about together as a

group bouncing ideas off of each other. Paul did the Java program and the math following that

along with finding the expected values. He also wrote anchors to the figures and tables in the

paper. Madeleine double checked the math that was done by Paul. She also did the instructions,

500 trials with the math and anchors, along with the summary. Lanie created the poster board

and the wheel for the game. She went over the entire paper to check for grammar and ensured the

sentences were smooth and flowed together and gave advice on main parts of the paper. There

was agreement in the group for every decision, problems were addressed immediately, and it was

made sure that everyone contributed equally to this project.

 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 13

Appendix

double ballPicked,c,b,EV, rand1, count = 0, total = 5000, randSlot, randCharacter,

randValue, moneyGain = 0, moneyLoss = 0;
double countLoseRound1 = 0, countLoseRound2 = 0, countLoseRound3 = 0,
countWinRound3 = 0;
for(int a = 1; a<= 5000; a++){
ballPicked = (int)(10 * Math.random()) + 1;
if(ballPicked <= 4){
randValue = (int)(13 * Math.random()) + 1;
if(randValue > 3){
moneyGain = moneyGain + 1;
count = count + 1;
countLoseRound2 = countLoseRound2 + 1;
}
if(randValue <= 3){
randSlot = (int)(5 * Math.random()) + 1;
randCharacter = (int)(5 * Math.random()) + 1;
if(randSlot != randCharacter){
moneyGain = moneyGain + 3;
 Havern - Munoz - Saroli 14

count = count + 1;
countLoseRound3 = countLoseRound3 + 1;
}
if(randSlot == randCharacter){
count = count + 1;
moneyGain = moneyGain + 13;
countWinRound3 = countWinRound3 + 1;
}
}}
if(ballPicked > 4){
moneyLoss = moneyLoss - 2;
countLoseRound1 = countLoseRound1 + 1;
}}
c = moneyLoss/total;
b = moneyGain/total;
EV = c + b;
System.out.println("P(lossing $2) = " + twoDec.format(countLoseRound1/5000));
System.out.println("P(winning $1) = " + twoDec.format(countLoseRound2/5000));
System.out.println("P(winning $3) = " + twoDec.format(countLoseRound3/5000));
System.out.println("P(winning $13) = " + twoDec.format(countWinRound3/5000));
System.out.println("Money Lost " + twoDec.format(moneyLoss/total));
System.out.println("Money Gained " + twoDec.format(moneyGain/total));
System.out.println("Expected Value " + twoDec.format(EV));
System.out.println("P(winning) = " + twoDec.format(count/total));
Figure 7. Java Code
The code started with generating a random integer 1-10, and if that integer was a 4 or

lower, the player passes Stage One. Within that loop, a random integer was generated 1-13 to

simulate the card drawing. The suit does not matter in the game and therefore only the numbers

1-13 were generated. If the random integer was less than or equal to a 3, the loop for the Third

Stage was ran. This time two random integers were generated 1-5 and if both matched, the count

of money gained would have 13 added to it. When the integer in Stage One was not 4 or lower

the money lost amount would have 2 subtracted. In Stages Two and Three when the number was

not the required one to move on, the specified amount was added on, as described in Table 2.

Each time a player either won or lost in any stage, the count of how often that happened was

recorded. All the numbers were divided by the total number of trials (5000) and for the expected

value, the average money lost and gained were added together.
Havern - Munoz - Saroli 15