(untitled)

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

This
This spreadsheet
spreadsheet was
was created
created by
by either
either POM,
POM, QM
QM or
or POM-QM
POM-QM forForecasting
for Windows,
Windows, V4.
V4.
600000
500000
400000
300000 Demand
Data Error analysis

Value
200000
Forecast
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute
100000 Squared |% Error|
January 9246 0
1 19 3 7 55 7 3
February 11941
March 15810 Time
April 94247 12332.33 81914.67 81914.67 6.71E+09 0.869149
May 155816 40666 115150 115150 1.33E+10 0.739013
June 121463 88624.33 32838.67 32838.67 1.08E+09 0.270359
July 134242 123842 10400 10400 1.08E+08 0.077472
August 144832 137173.7 7658.333 7658.333 58650069 0.052877
September 108564 133512.3 -24948.3 24948.33 6.22E+08 0.229803
October 59556 129212.7 -69656.7 69656.67 4.85E+09 1.169599
November 30745 104317.3 -73572.3 73572.33 5.41E+09 2.392985
December 16339 66288.33 -49949.3 49949.33 2.49E+09 3.057062
January 14230 35546.67 -21316.7 21316.67 4.54E+08 1.498009
February 15076 20438 -5362 5362 28751044 0.355665
March 25652 15215 10437 10437 1.09E+08 0.406869
April 128322 18319.33 110002.7 110002.7 1.21E+10 0.857239
May 207193 56350 150843 150843 2.28E+10 0.728031
June 172555 120389 52166 52166 2.72E+09 0.302315
July 167648 169356.7 -1708.67 1708.667 2919542 0.010192
August 173541 182465.3 -8924.33 8924.333 79643725 0.051425
September 160740 171248 -10508 10508 1.1E+08 0.065373
October 98167 167309.7 -69142.7 69142.67 4.78E+09 0.704337
November 70389 144149.3 -73760.3 73760.33 5.44E+09 1.047896
December 26620 109765.3 -83145.3 83145.33 6.91E+09 3.123416
January 14596 65058.67 -50462.7 50462.67 2.55E+09 3.457294
February 16078 37201.67 -21123.7 21123.67 4.46E+08 1.313824
March 45181 19098 26083 26083 6.8E+08 0.5773
April 182874 25285 157589 157589 2.48E+10 0.861735
May 241845 81377.67 160467.3 160467.3 2.57E+10 0.663513
June 179876 156633.3 23242.67 23242.67 5.4E+08 0.129215
July 148456 201531.7 -53075.7 53075.67 2.82E+09 0.357518
August 188731 190059 -1328 1328 1763584 0.007036
September 151971 172354.3 -20383.3 20383.33 4.15E+08 0.134126
October 94212 163052.7 -68840.7 68840.67 4.74E+09 0.7307
November 46870 144971.3 -98101.3 98101.33 9.62E+09 2.093052
December 18916 97684.33 -78768.3 78768.33 6.2E+09 4.164112
January 16449 53332.67 -36883.7 36883.67 1.36E+09 2.242304
February 20536 27411.67 -6875.67 6875.667 47274792 0.33481
March 28600 18633.67 9966.333 9966.333 99327800 0.348473
April 205956 21861.67 184094.3 184094.3 3.39E+10 0.893853
May 253283 85030.67 168252.3 168252.3 2.83E+10 0.664286
June 256460 162613 93847 93847 8.81E+09 0.365932
July 220479 238566.3 -18087.3 18087.33 3.27E+08 0.082037
August 249543 243407.3 6135.667 6135.667 37646405 0.024588
September 152392 242160.7 -89768.7 89768.67 8.06E+09 0.589064
October 68852 207471.3 -138619 138619.3 1.92E+10 2.013294
November 29536 156929 -127393 127393 1.62E+10 4.313143
December 15532 83593.33 -68061.3 68061.33 4.63E+09 4.382007
January 14485 37973.33 -23488.3 23488.33 5.52E+08 1.621563
February 11909 19851 -7942 7942 63075364 0.666891
March 12870 13975.33 -1105.33 1105.333 1221762 0.085884
April 41213 13088 28125 28125 7.91E+08 0.68243
May 45674 21997.33 23676.67 23676.67 5.61E+08 0.518384
June 46858 33252.33 13605.67 13605.67 1.85E+08 0.29036
July 99759 44581.67 55177.33 55177.33 3.04E+09 0.553106
August 153869 64097 89772 89772 8.06E+09 0.583431
September 72801 100162 -27361 27361 7.49E+08 0.375833
October 36833 108809.7 -71976.7 71976.67 5.18E+09 1.954135
November 14386 87834.33 -73448.3 73448.33 5.39E+09 5.105542
December 19803 41340 -21537 21537 4.64E+08 1.087562
January 20434 23674 -3240 3240 10497600 0.158559
February 22973 18207.67 4765.333 4765.333 22708402 0.207432
March 21024 21070 -46 46 2116 0.002188
April 143963 21477 122486 122486 1.5E+10 0.850816
May 517361 62653.33 454707.7 454707.7 2.07E+11 0.878898
June 163099 227449.3 -64350.3 64350.33 4.14E+09 0.394548
July 165912 274807.7 -108896 108895.7 1.19E+10 0.656346
August 214339 282124 -67785 67785 4.59E+09 0.316251
September 157949 181116.7 -23167.7 23167.67 5.37E+08 0.146678
October 152046 179400 -27354 27354 7.48E+08 0.179906
November 28850 174778 -145928 145928 2.13E+10 5.058163
December 28355 112948.3 -84593.3 84593.33 7.16E+09 2.983366
January 40866 69750.33 -28884.3 28884.33 8.34E+08 0.706806
February 44946 32690.33 12255.67 12255.67 1.5E+08 0.272675
March 57623 38055.67 19567.33 19567.33 3.83E+08 0.339575
April 218966 47811.67 171154.3 171154.3 2.93E+10 0.781648
May 279207 107178.3 172028.7 172028.7 2.96E+10 0.616133
June 201437 185265.3 16171.67 16171.67 2.62E+08 0.080282
July 172172 233203.3 -61031.3 61031.33 3.72E+09 0.354479
August 232273 217605.3 14667.67 14667.67 2.15E+08 0.063148
September 140222 201960.7 -61738.7 61738.67 3.81E+09 0.440292
October 119002 181555.7 -62553.7 62553.67 3.91E+09 0.525652
November 59672 163832.3 -104160 104160.3 1.08E+10 1.745548
December 37872 106298.7 -68426.7 68426.67 4.68E+09 1.806788
Total 90468 5108030 6.75E+11 81.8436
Average 1116.889 63062.1 8.33E+09 1.010415
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
 SE 92407.09
Next period 72182
4.
4.

Demand
Forecast