Pertemuan Pertama:

Aspek Keuangan Global

Tinjauan Umum

Kiki Verico, Ph.D.

 Topik
1. Di mana penekanan AKG MPKP?
2. Keseimbangan Eksternal
3. Network is a Must
4. Kreatifitas & ICT (Knowledge Based Economy)
5. Dilemma Globalisasi & Hadirnya Regionalisasi
1. Di mana penekanan AKG MPKP?
 Neraca Pembayaran (transaksi bank):
Williamson&Lessard

Export Goods & Services a (c+)

Import Goods & Services b (d-)
Trade Balance C
Net Investment Income d (c+/d-)
Debt-Service Payments e (d-)
Net Remittances & transfers f (c+/d-)
Service G
Current Account H
Foreign Direct Investment i (c+/d-)
Private Foreign Loans (-Amortization) j (c+)
Government Foreign Loans (-Amortization) k (c+)
Increase in Foreign Assets of Domestic Bank l (c+)
Short Term Capital Flow m (c+/d-)
Capital Account N
BoP O
Errors/Omissions P
Delta Stock in International Reserve Q
http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.co.id/2007/01/structural-drivers-
of-global.html
 Future Production Networks

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-tide-is-turning-in-favor-of-emerging-market-stocks-2016-09-20
http://slideplayer.com/slide/6235465/
 Bubbling in
Global Finance Trade
• History of international currency or vehicle currency (off shore
trading)
• Motif kepemilikan uang: Transaction & Precaution ke Speculation
• New York; London; Tokyo = US$ 303 billion;192 billion ;128
billion daily
• Ratio Foreign Exchange market to world trade : 2/1 (20 billion
US$/10 billion US$ daily in 1973); 10/1 (1980); 50/1 (1992); 70/1
(1995); 90/1 (2005)
 Crisis is normal
1. Japan’s Restriction on inflows & VER (1983)
2. Bolivia, Poland (1980’s)
3. Rusia’s collapsed (1989)
4. Argentina Financial Crisis: tequila’s effect (1991)
5. EU Financial Attack (1992-1994)
Italy (excessive subsidy); France (Mirtrand’subsidy) ; Spain (outflow<1980’s);
Germany (full liberal)
6. Southeast Asia Financial Crisis: domino’s effect (1998), Russia’s
second attack (1999)
7. Yuan Remimbi Pressure (2004)
8. GFC 2008
9. EU & Greece
10. Arab Springs
11. Brexit 2016 & Trump’s Effect 2017
 Currency Union around the World
• 1999 EU currency
• 2010 Persian Gulf Currency (Saudi Arabia, UAE,Bahrain,Oman,Qatar &
Kuwait)
• Dollarization (Bahamas, Bermuda, Panama,Peurto Rico,Guatemala,Mexico
& Peru): Lost monetary authority in printing domestic currency

Robert Baro (138 countries from 1957-1997)

• US$: Canada, Mexico, Central America, South America, Hong Kong,
Philippines & Singapore
• Euro: EU, most African Countries
• Yen: probably Indonesia

“Currency Union like EMU take cost of losing monetary authority & fiscal deficit
and benefit of people on interstate money transaction”

Note: Classic study named

Optimum Currency Area (Mundell,1961)
ASEAN+3 = CMIM + AREM
 Regional Economic Integration Theory

FTA CU CM SMU SC

Free Trade Area Custom Union Common Market Single Monetary Union Single Currency
(1957-1967) (1967-1987) (1987-1993) (1993-1999) (1999-2002)
Free flows of goods Trade Diversion to Free flows of capital Monetary policy union Single Currency
(output market), Investment Creation people preparation and exist until
(transition output & (input market) now)
Treaty of Rome input market)
Treaty of Paris, 1951: Single Market Treaty of Maastricht,1992 Monetary, Single Currency
ECSC,EURATOM, EPU Economic Community (Real Sector (SGP, EMS to ECB) (OCA, ERM)
Convergence)

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 Penekanan AKG MPKP
1. Trade, Investment, Finance
2. Law, Politics, Economics, Engineering,
Human Needs
 2. Keseimbangan Eksternal
Net Income & Current Account
 We hope from FDI but we have to be export oriented:
Production Issues

Import Payment
2. Capital Outflow (-)

Import
Indonesia Japan

FDI Inflow

Export
Oriented FDI
Outflow

Investment Income:
EU
2. Capital Outflow (-)
1>2: Net Inflow
1. Capital Inflow from Export &
Investment Income (+)
 apa
lapangan
usaha utama
dalam
seminggu
terakhir? Freq. Percent Cum.

-3.2e+231 1 0.00 0.00

-7.3e-304 1 0.00 0.00
0 7,626 1.47 1.47
1.8e-307 1 0.00 1.47
6.0e-154 16 0.00 1.47
1 221,934 42.74 44.21
2 9,262 1.78 45.99
3 37,554 7.23 53.22
4 2,210 0.43 53.65
5 29,783 5.74 59.38
6 93,104 17.93 77.31
7 20,029 3.86 81.17
8 4,850 0.93 82.10
9 92,940 17.90 100.00
73 1 0.00 100.00

Total 519,312 100.00

apa
status/kedu
dukan di
pekerjaan
utama dalam
seminggu
terakhir? Freq. Percent Cum.

-3.2e+231 1 0.00 0.00

-1.8e-307 1 0.00 0.00 r13a
1.7e-310 1 0.00 0.00
1.8e-307 1 0.00 0.00 modal 1 2 Total
6.0e-154 15 0.00 0.00
1 110,530 21.28 21.29
2 81,479 15.69 36.98 1 1,392 2,263 3,655
3 14,730 2.84 39.81 2 1,366 436 1,802
4 172,076 33.14 72.95
5 49,170 9.47 82.42 3 1,843 7,886 9,729
6 91,307 17.58 100.00
15 1 0.00 100.00
Total 4,601 10,585 15,186
Total 519,312 100.00
3. Network is a Must
 https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xfa1/t51.2885-
15/s306x306/e15/10986254_620265724773402_1398315305_n.jpg
 Globalization
“The process of international integration arising from the
interchange of world views, products, ideas, and other
aspects of culture. Advances in transportation and
telecommunication infrastructure, including the rise of the
telegraph and its posterity the internet, are major factors in
globalization, generating further interdependence of
economic and cultural activities” (Guyford, 1972)

Four waves of globalization:

1. Government Led: Colonialization
2. Private (MNCs) Led: Industrial Revolution
3. Individual Led: Information Communication Technology
(ICT) Revolution
4. Machinery Led: Virtual Domination, material less
 Globalization is needed
1. “Trade can make everybody better off ” (do not produce
something that cheaper if you buy, A. Smith, 1776)
2. Autarky is nearly impossible & import substitution is misleading
3. Specialization is nature as we are all relative
4. Absolute, Comparative, Abundance, Specialization,
Networks, Competitive
5. Openness starts from trade, investment thus finance: Money
follow Goods

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/12/24/can-asean-achieve-economic-community.html
http://goliveindonesia.com/2013/05/02/asean-economic-integration-challenges-and-strategies/
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/indonesiaproject/?p=2950
 Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%):
D.Dollar & A.Art,WB Research Paper, March 2001,
p.38

Category 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s

Globalized 1.4 2.9 3.5 5.0 6.0

Non 2.4 3.3 0.8 1.4 1.5

Globalized

Sumber:Author’s calculation
Source: Fung Global Institute
 Indonesia & Global Value
Chains

Source: Tim GVCs LPEM based on OECD Data

Source: CSIS
 2016
Num ber of Project Million USD
Agriculture Food Crops 800 1,589
& Mining Farm s 150 49
Forestry 108 78
Fishery 124 43
Mining 1,130 2,742
TOTAL 2,312 4,502
Manufacture Food Industry 1,947 2,115
Textile 886 321
Footw ear 279 144
Wood 240 268
Paper 274 2,787
Chem ical 1,096 2,889
Rubber 710 737
Non Metal 397 1,076
Metal 2,185 3,897
Medical Instrum ent 22 9
Transportation 928 2,370
Others 599 75
TOTAL 9,563 16,688
Service Utilities 748 2,140
Construction 437 187
Trade 5,540 670
Hotel & Restaurant 2,026 888
Transportation & Com m unication 620 750
Property 1,151 2,322
Others 2,924 818
TOTAL 13,446 7,775
Total 25,321 28,964

Source: BKPM
Source: Unknown
 50

45
45.02
40
Note: Culinary,
Investment
35
Income,
Remittance,
30 31.18 Export by “one
smart strategy”
(%)

25

20

15
15.92
10

5 2.09 3.32 2.46

0

Source: Baseline Survey of Creative Economy Roadmap on 6 Provinces 6 Sub-Sector for BEK RI, LPEM
FEB UI 2016
Source: ASEAN Dashboard, 2017
 GVC dan Kerjasama Perdagangan Internasional

• Menurut Bruhn (2014), negara saling terkoneksi

baik melalui perdagangan dan investasi maka
keberadaan preferential trade agreements (PTA)
tidak hanya akan meningkatkan partisipasi dalam
GVC dan peningkatan nilai tambah melalui
penurunan hambatan perdagangan namun juga
mendorong pemerintah untuk melakukan reformasi
•
• Bruhn juga mengingatkan bahwa PTA juga bisa
membatasi pemerintah dalam mengambil kebijakan
demi kepentingan domestik.

34
Cost: Global economic developments
entail
participation of most countries and their industries in a
global market of production and exchange

many products are the results of value chains that link

different countries

e.g., product design and specifications devised in

country A; basic materials from country B; manufacture
of some parts in country c, of other parts in country d;
assembly in country e, and so on.
Cost of Liberalisation
 Risk of Not Being Liberalised

Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
Benefit: Market Enlargement (Internal & External)

Source: http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2016/5/30/transforming-supply-chains-ketchup-in-the-tpp
3. Kreatifitas & ICT
iPod (Vertical Integration)

Source: Pyndick, 2009

 “Untuk meningkatkan kualitas kebijakan dan perencanaan Bekraf di masa depan butuh dukungan
data dan informasi statistik yg akurat, lengkap, terkini, dan konsisten,”…. MoU ini juga merupakan
salah satu bentuk upaya dari Bekraf untuk mendukung pencapaian target pembangunan ekonomi
kreatif 2015-2019, yang mencakup kontribusi PDB sebesar 12 persen, serapan tenaga kerja 13 juta
orang, dan kontribusi ekspor sebesar 10 persen. “Ekonomi kreatif akan menjadikan Indonesia
sebagai pemain utama,” (Kepala BEKRAF) (19 Januari 2016,
https://www.bps.go.id/KegiatanLain/view/id/129)

Culinary Film Music Game & App Craft Fashion

Song
Tourism Tradable

Domestic
Festival Instrument
Circulation
In the DCMS’s definition of creative economy and creative industry, there are thirteen areas of activity:
(1) advertising, (2) architecture, (3) arts and antiques, (4) handicrafts, (5) design, (6) fashion, (7) cinema
production, (8) leisure software, (specifically, video games), (9) music, (10) the performing arts, (11)
publishing, (12) software engineering, and (13) radio and television. Meanwhile, BEKRAF define the
creative economy to 16 sub-sectors (1) application and game, (2) architecture, (3) interior design, (4) visual
communication, (5) product design, (6) fashion, (7) movie, animation & video, (8) photography, (9) craft,
(10) culinary, (11) music, (12) publication, (13) advertisement, (14) show business, (15) arts dan (16) radio
and television.

BEKRAF also supported a field baseline survey conducted by the LPEM UI in six big cities in Indonesia,
including DKI Jakarta, West Java (Bandung), Yogyakarta (Jogya), Bali (Denpasar), North Sulawesi
(Manado) and North Sumatera (Medan). However, the survey focused only on fashion, culinary, craft,
movie, music, and application and game.
 b1r252 Freq. Percent Cum. 1. Apakah Anda melakukan desain produk sendiri? 1. Ya 2. Tidak
1. Fashion 1 168 15.92 15.92
2. Kuliner 2 475 45.02 60.95
3. Kriya 3 329 31.18 92.13
4. Film, 4 22 2.09 94.22
5. Musik 5 35 3.32 97.54
6 26 2.46 100.00
6. Applikasi dan Games

Total 1,055 100.00

Jenis Konsumen
b1r26 Freq. Percent Cum.
1. Perorangan
Perseroan Terbatas (PT) -1 2. Korporasi
1 19 1.80 1.80
Commanditaire Vennootschap (CV) -2
Keduanya
2 39 3.70 5.50
Koperasi -3 3 7 0.66 6.16 b6r1 Freq. Percent Cum.
Ijin Pemda -4 4 13 1.23 7.39
Perorangan -5 5 947 89.76 97.16
1 598 56.68 56.68
Lainnya (tuliskan......….............…………) -6 6 30 2.84 100.00
2 54 5.12 61.80
Total 1,055 100.00 3 403 38.20 100.00

Total 1,055 100.00

 Most basic challenges in running business are marketing & distribution (46.64%), access to finance
(33.08%) the followed by raw materials (20.47%) and availability of skilled worker (14.98%). Access to
finance is also low due to not interested to use bank access (56.65%).

b12r1 Freq. Percent Cum. 1. Apakah Anda mengiklankan produk Anda?

1 704 66.73 66.73 1. Ya

2 351 33.27 100.00 2. Tidak

Total 1,055 100.00

1. Metode apa yang pernah digunakan untuk mengiklankan atau menjual produk anda:

(pilihan boleh lebih dari satu)

1. Media Cetak (contoh: Majalah, Koran, Brosur, Spanduk)

2. E-commerce (contoh: Tokopedia, OLX, BukaLapak)

3. Media Sosial (contoh: twitter, Instagram, facebook)
4. Website Penjualan langsung

5. Distributor
6. Exhibition/Festival/Pameran
7. Lainnya…………………

Yet majority, the product was distributed inside municipal/city (48.15%) or different municipal in the
same province and very low to export abroad (0.19%). The potential factor was low e-commerce
utilization (5.78%). Given this substitution from similar product was making competition really tough
(73.12%).
5. Dilema Globalisasi dan
Hadirnya Regionalisasi
Economic Cooperation
Structure
 Prisoner’s Dilemma on Trade retaliation

Protection Dilemma Developing Country

Retaliation (Manufacture)

Protection No Protection

Protection 20/10 60/5

Developed
Country
(Agriculture)
No Protection 10/30 40/20

49
 Empirical Evidence
Intra regional trade:
WTO, International Trade Statistics table III.3
% of Export North America Latin America Western Africa Middle East Asia
sum by row Europe

North America 39.5 16.5 19 1.3 2.1 20.9

Latin America 60.8 17 12.1 1.2 1.2 6.3

Western Europe 10.3 2.3 67.5 2.5 2.6 7.8

Africa 17.7 3.5 51.8 7.8 2.1 14.9

Middle East 16.5 1.3 16.5 3.8 7.6 47.3

Asia 25.1 2.7 16.8 1.6 3 48.2

 Kerjasama Ekonomi Internasional
• Keikutsertaan negara berkembang dalam suatu
PTA harus sesuai dengan kepentingan negara
tersebut dengan menjaga fleksibilitas kebijakan.

• Perundingan kerjasama perdagangan

internasional antara negara berkembang dan
negara maju sebaiknya dilakukan pada level
multilateral agar bisa mendapatkan potensi
manfaat yang optimal.

• Production Networks, Guang Xi/ECBN, SEZs

51
Terima Kasih

MPKP FEUI