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Mar 14, 2018

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Reliability basic concepts, application in engineering, distributions

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Reliability basic concepts, application in engineering, distributions

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Reliability theory

9. Reliability theory

Contents

• Introduction

• Structural system models

• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components

• Reliable network topology design

2

9. Reliability theory

History

methods were developed during and after WW2

– For example Lusser’s law, i.e., product probability law of series of

components, was formulated by Robert Lusser during V1 flying bomb tests

– Arised from the need to improve and control the quality of industrial

products with many parts

• 50s, 60s

– ballistic missiles, space programs

– first journal, IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1963

• 70s

– safety of nuclear power plants

• 80s, 90s

– oil and gas industries, computer programs to evaluate reliability, software

reliability, ...

• 00s, new kinds of operation concepts (remote control/maintenance of

3

systems) require reliability analysis, network reliability etc

9. Reliability theory

Approaches to reliability

• Hardware reliability

– Physical approach

• Strength S of an item is a random variable

• Load L the item is exposed to is another random variable

• Reliability R = Pr(S > L)

• Structural reliability analysis

– Actuarial approach ¬ our approach

• Time to failure T is studied using its distribution F(t)

• All information of individual strengths, loads, etc is conveyed in F(t)

• System reliability analysis

• Software reliability

• Human reliability

4

9. Reliability theory

given environmental and operational conditions and for a stated period

of time (ISO 8402)

– the item can be a single component or a larger entity (system)

– required function may refer to a single function or many

• Quality: The totality of features and characteristics of a product or

service that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs (ISO

8402)

– i.e., ”conformance to specifications”

– reliability can be seen as an extension of quality into the time domain

• Availability: The ability of an item to perform its required function at a

stated instant of time or over a stated period of time (BS4778)

– i.e., can the item be used at some time instant or what is the time fraction

the item is usable (= average availability)

5

9. Reliability theory

retained in, or restored to, a state in which it can perform its required

functions, when maintenance is performed under stated conditions and

using prescribed procedures and resources (BS4778)

– if an item can be repaired, then maintainability determines the availability of

the item

• Dependability: Collective term to describe availability performance

and influencing factors: Reliability performance, maintainability

performance and maintenance support performance (IEC60300)

– umbrella term often used when covering reliability issues

• Safety: Freedom from those conditions that can cause death, injury,

occupational illness, or damage to or loss of equipment or property

(MIL-STD-882D)

• Security: Dependability with respect to prevention of deliberate hostile

actions

6

9. Reliability theory

Basic concepts(3)

• Fault

– a defect or mistake which leads to error. Reason for an error.

• Error

– a system state which can lead to a failure

• Failure

– The termination of its ability to perform a required function (BS 4778)

– An unacceptable deviation from the design tolerance or in the anticipated

delivered service, an incorrect output, the incapacity to perform the desired

function (NASA 2002)

7

9. Reliability theory

Cause

Fault

Fault prevention Fault tolerance

• aim is to design a system without

• aim is to be able to provide the

faults

• physical shielding of components, Error service even in the presence of

faults

careful manufacturing etc.

• main tool: redundancy!

• hardware

• software

• information

Failure • time

8

9. Reliability theory

– Nonrepairable items

• The item can be single item or larger system

• We are only interested in the time until first failure – whatever happens

after this is of no interest to us

• Interesting measures include: Mean time to failure, reliability

(function) and failure rate

– Repairable items

Our focus

• Interesting measures include: Availability, mean time between

failures, mean down time, number of failures in some time interval

• In some sources the term dependability is used instead of availability

to mean the same thing

9

9. Reliability theory

Systems of items

possibilities for modeling systems:

Our focus

probabilities

• Most examples during this course assume independence

• Exact analysis is harder, even impossible, because of the

dependencies

• Analysis of the system as a stochastic process

10

9. Reliability theory

modelled as stochastic processes (cf. queueing models in earlier

lectures)

– especially repairable items/systems

– the failure process, repair times, etc.

• Structure of systems and its subsystems -> structural models

– reliability block diagrams, structure function

• Tools:

– Basic probability theory

– Stochastic processes

• Markov chains/processes

• (Renewal processes)

– Statistical methods

• Main limitations of ”probabilistic reliability analysis”: human errors,

human factor

11

9. Reliability theory

Applications

• Risk analysis

– Identification of accidental events

– Causal analysis

– Consequence analysis

• Environmental protection

• Quality

• Optimization and maintenance

• Engineering design

• Verification of quality

• Research and development

• ...

12

9. Reliability theory

network availability

– = Pr (user can access the agreed network services at time )

– Average availability tells us the time fraction the system is available

• A way to understand availability of networks is to study the downtime

of a network (or outage of some specific service) per year

# nines Avg. availability Downtime / year

2-nines 0.99 87.6 hours

3-nines 0.999 8 hours 46 mins

4-nines 0.9999 52 mins 34 secs

5-nines 0.99999 5 mins 15 secs

6-nines 0.999999 31.5 secs

7-nines 0.9999999 3.15 secs 13

9. Reliability theory

equipment manufacturers are interested also in

– reliability of components (mean times to failure, number of failures in

some time interval etc.)

– maintainability

– security of networks

• Reliability is an important factor when planning new services, networks

or equipment

• Note that dependability, reliability and availability may have different

definitions in different sources. Be careful to understand what are the

definitions of the different concepts.

14

9. Reliability theory

• We focus on

– Repairable systems

– Systems of independent components

– Exponential assumptions on mean time to failure and mean down time

– Thus, we get simple models using Markovian analysis

– Apply the models to topology design of communication networks where

availability is defined as connectivity of the network

15

9. Reliability theory

Literature

– System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods and Applications,

2nd edition, Marvin Rausand and Arnljot Høyland, Wiley, 2004

– Mesh-Based Survivable Networks: Options and Strategies for Optical,

MPLS, SONET and ATM Networking, Wayne D. Grover, Prentice Hall,

2004

– Moniste: Luotettavuus, käytettävyys, huollettavuus (luotettavuusteoria.pdf),

Keijo Ruohonen, TTKK, 2002

– TKK courses AS-116.3180, Mat-2.3118

16

9. Reliability theory

Contents

• Introduction

• Structural system models

• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components

• Reliable network topology design

17

9. Reliability theory

a system of components

– it shows the logical connections between components

• A system works if there is a path of functioning components from the

start point (a) to the end point (b)

• RBDs give a deterministic model for the structure of a system

– the whole system works properly if and only if some set of the components

function

• It is important to determine which specific function of the system is

modelled: the logical structure may be different for different functions

18

9. Reliability theory

the logical structure is a series structure

b

a 1 2 3 4

functions, the logical structure is a parallel structure

1

a 2 b

3

4

• Series and parallel structures can be further combined to model more

complex structures 19

9. Reliability theory

• The state vector of a structure is x = (x1, x2, ... , xn), where each state

variable xi is either 1 when component i is functioning or 0 when

component i is in a failed state

• The structure function of the system is

ì1 if the system is functioning

f (x) = í

î0 if the system is in a failed state

• For a series structure, the structure function is

n

f (x) = x1 × x2 L xn = Õ xi

i =1

– system works if and only if xi = 1 for all i

20

9. Reliability theory

n n

f (x) =1 - (1 - x1 ) × (1 - x2 )L(1 - xn ) = 1 - Õ (1 - xi ) = C xi

i =1 i =1

– If any xi = 1, then the system functions

– The last operator (upwards product) is reap ”ip”

• Example:

For structure with 2 components in parallel we have

2

f ( x1 , x2 ) = C xi = 1 - (1 - x1 )(1 - x2 ) = x1 + x2 - x1 x2

i =1

21

9. Reliability theory

visually inspecting the system as a combination of series and parallel

structures

generating the structure function ( )

– Path set and cut set methods allow this

22

9. Reliability theory

ensure that the system is functioning. A path set is minimal if it cannot

be reduced without losing its status as a path set.

• Definition: A cut set K is set of components which by failing cause

the system to fail. A cut set is minimal if it cannot be reduced.

• Example:

2

1

3

Path sets: Cut sets:

{1, 2} {1}

Minimal path sets: P1 = {1, 2} P2 = {1, 3}

Minimal cut sets: K1 = {1} K 2 = {2, 3}

{1, 3} {2, 3}

{1, 2, 3} {1, 2}

{1, 3}

23

{1, 2, 3}

9. Reliability theory

r j (x) = Õ xi

iÎPj

• The whole structure functions if and only if at least one minimal path

set is functioning,

f ( x) = 1 - Õ (1 -r j (x)) = C r j ( x) = C Õ xi

j j j iÎPj

• Path set method:

1. Determine the path sets of the structure

2. Determine minimal path sets Pj

3. Calculate the structure functions of minimal path setc as series stuctures

4. Take ”ip” over all functions you get in step 3.

5. Simplify as needed (TIP: Power of binary variable = variable without any

power, xij=xi)

24

9. Reliability theory

k j (x) = C xi = 1 - Õ (1 - xi )

iÎK j iÎK j

• Now the structure fails if and only if at least one structure

corresponding to the minimal cut sets fail

f ( x) = Õ k j (x) = Õ C xi

j j iÎK j

• Cut set method:

1. Determine the cut sets of the structure

2. Determine minimal cut sets Kj

3. Calculate the structure functions of minimal cuts sets as parallel structures

4. Multiply all functions you get in step 3.

5. Simplify as needed

25

9. Reliability theory

Demo/Exercise

b) using path set method

c) using cut set method

2

1

3

26

9. Reliability theory

Contents

• Introduction

• Structural system models

• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components

• Reliable network topology design

27

9. Reliability theory

Repairable components/systems

upon failures (or even before), i.e., repairable components

• We are interested for example in

– system reliability

– component/system availability:

– mean number of failures during a time interval

– mean time between failures, MTBF

– mean downtime (or repair time) of systems, MDT (MTTR)

• For this purpose we can model the systems/failure processes as

stochastic processes

– thus, we have studied the theoretical background already in the beginning

of this course

28

9. Reliability theory

repaired/restored to working condition using some kind of maintenance

– Can be preventive, corrective, …

• Let X(t) denote the stochastic process of the system with X(t) = 1 if the

system is operational and 0 otherwise

• The main measure is availability, A(t)

– also ( ) = Ā(t) = 1 – A(t), the unavailability is studied

t

1

Average availabili ty Aav (t ) = ò A(t ) dt

t 0

t

1

Long run average availabili ty Aav = lim Aav (t ) = lim ò A(t ) dt

t ®¥ t ®¥ t

0

t ®¥

9. Reliability theory

1 if component is operational

=

0 otherwise

– Mean time between failures, MTBF

– Mean downtime, MDT

– Mean time to failure, MTTF

MTBF

X(t) MTTF

1

MDT

0

30

t

9. Reliability theory

• Markov model

– MTTF is independent and exponentially distributed with mean 1/

– MDT is independent and exponentially distributed with mean 1/

1 m

0 0 1

142 43 1424

3

l

~Exp(l) ~Exp(m)

ì l MDT

U

ïï av = p = =

l + m MTTF + MDT

0

í m MTTF

ï Aav = p 1 = =

ïî l + m MTTF + MDT

– Steady-state distribution holds even when MTTF and MDT have general

distributions (but still independent), insensitivity property

– Then no more a Markovian process but a so-called renewal process 31

9. Reliability theory

Examples (1)

• Example 1:

A machine has MTTF = 1000 hours and MDT = 5 hours

MTTF 1000

The average availability is Aav = = » 0.995

MTTF + MDT 1000 + 5

• Example 2:

Item has independent uptimes with constant failure rate l. Downtimes are IID

with mean MDT. Usually we have MDT << MTTF, the average unavailability is

then approximately

MTTF MDT

Aav = 1 - Aav = 1 - =

MTTF+ MDT MTTF + MDT

l × MDT

= » l × MDT

1 + l × MDT

32

9. Reliability theory

– The state vector of a system is X(t ) = ( X 1 (t ), X 2 (t ), ... , X n (t ))

mean 1/ and 1/ , respectively

– Let = =1 = / +

– That is, is the availability of component i

• Then the steady state distribution of state = ,…, is simply the

product of Bernoulli distributions of each component i,

= 1−

– Again distribution holds even under general distributions for MTTF and

MDT (insensitivity)

33

9. Reliability theory

= =1

• The state space Ω can be partitioned into two sets

1. Up states Ω

• where the system is working. Note that some components may be in

failed state, but the system still provides the intended service.

2. Down states Ω

• where the system does not perform the required function

• The (average) availability of the system is given by

= ( )= 1 =1 ( )

∈ ∈

– similarly, unavailability is the sum of probabilities of down states

34

9. Reliability theory

• As ( ) is a binary-valued function,

æ n ö n n

Aav = E[f (X)] = Eçç Õ X i ÷÷ = Õ E[ X i ] = Õ pi

è i =1 ø i =1 i =1

æ n ö æ n

ö

Aav = E[f (X)] = Eçç C X i ÷÷ = Eçç1 - Õ (1 - X i ) ÷÷

è i =1 ø è i =1 ø

n n n

=1 - Õ (1 - E[ X i ]) =1 - Õ (1 - pi ) = C pi

i =1 i =1 i =1 35

9. Reliability theory

• However, in general

= ( ) ≠ ( )

– Thus, to calculate availability one can not just write down the structure

function ( ) and replace ’s by the corresponding ’s!

– Note that ( ) is a polynomial function

– All higher exponents of ’s are equal to , i.e., → etc.

– To the simplified structure function one can then apply the expectation

operator

36

9. Reliability theory

Demo/exercise

• Calculate the availability of the system below using the data given in

the table

2

1

3

1 750 8

2 300 15

3 500 10

components 37

9. Reliability theory

each other

– The dynamics (or transition rates) may depend on the state to reflect some

physical causes resulting from the given state

– For example, if there is only one repair man, when there are many faults

the repair rates are affected

– But still we assume that MTTF’s and MDT’s obey exponential distributions

• One can construct the associated Markov process and solve steady

state via global balance equations

38

9. Reliability theory

Example

distributed with rates l1 and l2. Repair rates are, correspondingly, m1

and m2. Also, there is only one person to repair and he spends half of

the time repairing component 1 and 2 when both are down.

l1 System State of State of

state component 1 component 2

0 1

m1 0 1 1

m2 l2 m2/2 l2 1 0 1

l1

2 1 0

2 3

m1/2 3 0 0

probability that at least one component works:

Aav = p 0 + p 1 + p 2 39

9. Reliability theory

Contents

• Structural system models

• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components

• Reliable network topology design

40

9. Reliability theory

– Typically network topology is heavily influenced by the set of physical

locations that need connectivity, so nodes are often given

– Also, many of the primary links between nodes are defined by the node

locations

– In practice, design space allows to add some or few additional links and

nodes

• Question is..

– Given a network topology (nodes + links), what is a reliable network?

– By considering the network as a graph, reliability/availability can be

formalized by the notion of graph connectivity

41

9. Reliability theory

and set of links J

• Definition: A graph is said to be connected if there exists a path

between every pair of nodes in the graph.

• Definition: Graph G is k-edge-connected if it remains connected after

removal of any k-1 edges.

– Remember: edge = link

• Definition: Graph G is k-vertex-connected if it remains connected

after removal of any k-1 vertices.

– Remember: vertex = node

– Removal of node means that all links connected to the node are removed

from the graph

• Efficient algorithms exist to check k-connectivity of the graph

42

9. Reliability theory

Examples

• 1-edge-connected

• 2-edge-connected

43

9. Reliability theory

– For redundancy, all nodes in the network need to be at least 2-(edge)-

connected with probability 0.99999 (i.e., “5 nines”)

– That is, the network must be resilient to single link failures

are perfectly reliable

– State = ,…,

– State space Ω = 0,1

44

9. Reliability theory

=

0, otherwise

= is 2 − connected = ( )

∈

– Need to define heuristics for identifying most useful locations

45

9. Reliability theory

– Node ∈ is operational with probability

• We still require that all nodes must stay 2-connected with 5-nines

– Thus, all nodes must then be operational and

=( ⋯ )∙ is 2 − connected | all nodes on

before assuming that nodes do not fail

• Note! This is just one version of the topology design objective and new

ones can be easily defined.

46

9. Reliability theory

THE END

– what kind of things reliability theory studies

– basic measures, MTTF, MDT

– how to calculate structure function of simple systems and how to use that

to calculate the availability/reliability of a system

– how to make Markov models of simple maintained systems and calculate

the availability

– how can graph connectivity be used as a measure of reliability in data

network topology design

47

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