Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
n The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for Nov. – Jan. was -1.0°C. This
index, which lags real-time SSTs, is in La Niña territory for the third
consecutive month (The Climate Prediction Center’s definition of a La Niña
Event includes an ONI value of -0.5°C or colder, for at least 5 consecutive months).
Analog
composite of
Pacific SST
anomalies has a
similar pattern
n The January 2018 observed Pacific Basin SST anomaly pattern is similar to the
constructed January composite of the analog years (1963; 1996; 2006).
n Both graphics show cool SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and across parts of the
north Pacific Ocean. There are also obvious differences, especially in magnitude.
Pacific Ocean
Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)
Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Current SST anomalies (bottom) reflect La Niña (cold) conditions
Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif
Tropical Pacific Ocean
ENSO-neutral
SOIs of the
analog years
El Niño were all in the
La Niña range
Tropical Pacific Ocean
ENSO-neutral
Weak
Moderate ONIs of the
analog years
Strong La Niña ranged from
cold ENSO-
neutral to
moderate La
Niña
North Pacific Ocean
Neutral
Jan. PDO of
analog years
Cool ranged from
“slightly warm”
to “neutral”
March 2018 Forecast
Mean Upper-Air Pattern Upper-Air Anomalies
n Anomalous troughing shifts to just off the west coast, with enhanced
SW flow aloft indicated for Oregon.
n This mean upper-air pattern would bring above-average cloudiness and
precipitation, especially across the western zones.
May 2018 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation
n Anomalous troughing over the Pacific NW, during March and April, is
expected to shift westward in May, producing enhanced SW flow aloft.
n Expect some late-season recovery of mountain snowpacks, but
reaching average seasonal totals will be challenging.
March – May 2018 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation
n WRCC WestWideDroughtTracker:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/
Updated Monthly
(Around the 20th)