Seasonal Climate Forecast

March – May 2018

Issued: February 16, 2018

Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons

503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@oregon.gov
Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) - Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF)
ODA Production support from Diana Walker, Jacob Cruser, and Andy Zimmerman
 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Current Status and Forecast
n La Niña (cold) conditions are present, with below-average sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

n The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for Nov. – Jan. was -1.0°C. This
index, which lags real-time SSTs, is in La Niña territory for the third
consecutive month (The Climate Prediction Center’s definition of a La Niña
Event includes an ONI value of -0.5°C or colder, for at least 5 consecutive months).

n The current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast favors La Niña

conditions through this winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral in the
spring. However, some computer models show La Niña continuing at
least through the summer, especially NCEP’s CFSv2 forecast model.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Beginning with the October 2017 update, ONI values use ERSSTv5 data
(Huang et al. 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
 Forecast Overview
n This month’s analog years (1963; 1996; 2006) remain unchanged, even
though they show considerable variability among themselves and are not
strong “matches” to the current year, which has La Niña conditions.
n In general, La Niña events exhibit an enhanced influence from the
polar jet stream, over the Pacific Northwest, during the spring months.
That increases the chances for cool temperatures and some recovery of
mountain snowpacks, which are currently well-below average (next slide).
n The wide variety of weather conditions exhibited by the analog years,
typical of La Niña events, decreases forecast confidence.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This forecast is based on past and current weather data and is not
associated with CPC predictions (see “Forecasting Methods…” at: https://oda.direct/Weather)
nor the official CPC “Three-Month Outlooks,” which are available here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
 January SST Anomalies (°C)
2018 Composite: 1963; 1996; 2006
Jan. 2018 Pacific
SST anomalies
were negative
in the tropics
and portions of
the Gulf of
Alaska

Analog
composite of
Pacific SST
anomalies has a
similar pattern

n The January 2018 observed Pacific Basin SST anomaly pattern is similar to the
constructed January composite of the analog years (1963; 1996; 2006).
n Both graphics show cool SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and across parts of the
north Pacific Ocean. There are also obvious differences, especially in magnitude.
 Pacific Ocean
Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)

Central and eastern tropical Pacific SSTs are

in weak-to-moderate La Niña range.

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
 Tropical Pacific Ocean
Current SST anomalies (bottom) reflect La Niña (cold) conditions

Central and eastern

Pacific SSTs remain
below average

Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif
Tropical Pacific Ocean

(1962-63; 1995-96; 2005-06)

January 2018
SOI climbed
La Niña into La Niña
territory

ENSO-neutral
SOIs of the
analog years
El Niño were all in the
La Niña range
Tropical Pacific Ocean

(1962-63; 1995-96; 2005-06) ONI for Nov.

2017 – Jan.
Strong El Niño 2018 bordered
on moderate
Moderate La Niña
Weak

ENSO-neutral

Weak
Moderate ONIs of the
analog years
Strong La Niña ranged from
cold ENSO-
neutral to
moderate La
Niña
 North Pacific Ocean

(1962-63; 1995-96; 2005-06) Jan. 2018 PDO

warmed to the
Warm top end of the
“neutral” range

Neutral

Jan. PDO of
analog years
Cool ranged from
“slightly warm”
to “neutral”
 March 2018 Forecast
Mean Upper-Air Pattern Upper-Air Anomalies

n Colder-than-average air aloft would promote below-average snow

levels over Oregon.
n Considerable variation among the analog years continues to reduce
forecast confidence.
 March 2018 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation

n Temperatures likely a little below average.

n Precipitation near to slightly-below average.
n Some recovery of mountain snowpacks, relative to average.
 April 2018 Forecast
Mean Upper-Air Pattern Upper-Air Anomalies

n The analog composite favors anomalous troughing in the Gulf of

Alaska and off of the US west coast.
n The predicted mean upper-air pattern favors increased storm activity,
relative to average.
 April 2018 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation

n Slightly-cooler and wetter-than-average weather likely. Below average

freezing levels should slightly delay the spring melting of snowpacks.
n Analogs still have considerable variation in both categories, which is
common during La Niña events.
 May 2018 Forecast
Mean Upper-Air Pattern Upper-Air Anomalies

n Anomalous troughing shifts to just off the west coast, with enhanced
SW flow aloft indicated for Oregon.
n This mean upper-air pattern would bring above-average cloudiness and
precipitation, especially across the western zones.
 May 2018 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation

n Analog years showed significant variation in temperature, with their

resultant average near or slightly-below normal.
n Above-average storminess should suppress maximum temperatures,
and bring above-average precipitation, especially west of the Cascades.
 March – May 2018 Forecast
Mean Upper-Air Pattern Upper-Air Anomalies

n Anomalous troughing over the Pacific NW, during March and April, is
expected to shift westward in May, producing enhanced SW flow aloft.
n Expect some late-season recovery of mountain snowpacks, but
reaching average seasonal totals will be challenging.
 March – May 2018 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation

n Analog years still show considerable variation in temperatures but are

more consistent with a signal for above-average precipitation.
n La Niña events enhance the chances for late-season valley frost and
delayed spring snowmelt in the mountains.
 Forecast Resources
n CPC Official US Three-Month Forecasts (Graphics):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01

n CPC US 30-Day & 90-Day Forecasts (Discussions):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

n CPC Weekly & Monthly ENSO Discussions:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory

n Australian Government Weekly Tropical Climate Note:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

n Australian Government ENSO Wrap-Up:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso

n IRI ENSO Quick Look:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

n ODA Seasonal Climate Forecast Home:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Pages/Weather.aspx
 Water Supply Information
n NDMC U.S. Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

n NIDIS North American Drought Portal:

http://www.drought.gov/nadm/content/percent-average-precipitation

n NRCS Snow Water Equivalent Oregon Map:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/or_swepctnormal_update.pdf

n NRCS Snow Water Equivalent Products:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/snotel-wereports.html

n NRCS Weekly Water and Climate Update:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl

n NRCS Western Snowpack Data & Water Supply Forecast:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl

n WRCC WestWideDroughtTracker:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/
 Updated Monthly
(Around the 20th)

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Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist
at 503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@oregon.gov