Research Design

The idea of revolting against the government was not exactly a revolutionary concept to

Egyptians in 2011. Within a century prior to the ousting of Mubarak, the country had seen two

other populist revolutions, one in 1919 and the other in 1952, both of which drew inspiration

from the 1879 ‘Urabi Revolt. The revolutions of the 20th century proved successful in the

achieving many of the goals cited as the reason(s) for the initial uprising(s), and 1952, like those

in the 21st century, saw an immediate change in the system of governance in the country. These

three events will be key components in analyzing the results of the 2011 Revolution, and to a

lesser extent, the 2013 coup d’état.

However, because the world was a vastly different place in 2011 from what it was in

1952 from what it was 1919, just looking at the government overthrows—or in the case of 1879,

attempted overthrows—that occurred in Egypt would be inaccurate and downright irresponsible

given the many decades that separate them from one another. Thus, using Skocpol’s method

comparative historical analysis, we will also look outside Egyptian borders and compare the

January 25th Revolution to similar events such as those seen in Tunisia and Libya. While protests

did occur in the majority of Arab countries, many saw little to no substantial change as a result,

especially in terms of change of leadership, and thus cannot provide the comparisons necessary

to properly analyze the Egyptian case.

By analyzing both the domestic movements and international ones that occurred within

the same time period, we will be able to analyze the independent variables which determined the

dependent variable, the outcome(s) of said uprisings. However, for the purposes of this study, we

will not be looking at why or how each movement proved initially successful or not, but rather

the factors during them which maintained enough inertia to see the goals of the masses
implemented following apparent victory, or the factors that resulted in their voices being

silenced:

- Means of Mobilization – The January 25th Revolution was quickly dubbed the “Social

Media Revolution” as protesters relied heavily on social media platforms, mainly Twitter

and Facebook, to spread their message and coordinate demonstrations. Similar conditions

were seen throughout the Arab Spring, despite the fact that some regimes disabled the

internet while the protests were occurring. This variable is important, and can be used to

contrast between earlier uprisings, however can largely be controlled when looking at

modern movements as it is fairly consistent across countries who saw mass

demonstrations during the 21st century.

- Role of Military – Often the most cited reason for why the Egyptian people were

successful in overthrowing Mubarak was that when ordered by the president to fire upon

protesters, the army refused to do so. Not all countries were so fortunate, which resulted

in brutal massacres and civil wars. However, that is not where the military involvement—

in Egypt or other cases being analyzed—end. Not only is the role of the military during

the revolutionary movement important, but their actions taken during the transitional

period after may have a significant impact on just what the country transitioned to. In

order to analyze militaristic interaction with protesters, we can group the means of

intervention into three categories: siding with the regime, siding with the protesters, and

remaining neutral both during and after the demonstrations.

- Organization of the People During and After – On January 25, 2011, the Egyptian

people took to the street with one objective: get rid of President Hosni Mubarak. Not

much thought went into how the country would operate after that, causing deep divisions
 within Egyptian society that plagued the transition period. Meanwhile, following the

ousting of Ben Ali in Tunisia, the majority of Tunisians rallied behind a single group that

were able to assume power relatively quickly. It is in these interactions between these

factions and within them that shall be used in our analysis. Most importantly, we shall

look inside the Egyptian secular camp, the largest yet least organized ideological group,

and determine their level of (dis)organization and whether or not it played a factor in the

election of Mohamed Morsi, and then to what extent, if any, said level increased,

decreased, or remained the same into Sisi’s assumption of power. For simplicity’s sake,

the levels will be categorized as low, medium, and high, and exactly what fits into which

category shall be determined using our comparative method.

- Level of Power Awarded to the New President – It is a well-established fact that in

order to maintain a consolidated democracy, a government must have a secure system of

checks and balances. If a president replaces a dictator yet is either awarded or awards

himself during his term the same powers as the previous dictator, then he himself is a

dictator, thus halting all progress the country has made. In our cases in which there was a

change in leadership it is important to determine whether this change was merely a

change in people or a change in both the individuals in charge and the system under

which the masses were dissatisfied enough with to revolt against.

It is important to note that while these three countries all border one another, the fact that they sit

in the same corner of Africa is a coincidence as to why they were selected. These are all

countries which resulted in full-fledged revolutions. Yemen and Syria also resulted in war, and

yet, they will not included in the analysis as their wars as a result of their uprisings are still

ongoing and thus any analysis and/or speculations will likely need to be significantly altered
following the conflict conclusions. Libya, too, is still entrenched in war, however unlike Syria

and Yemen, Libya was able to oust its leader before descending into sheer chaos, and thus a line

can be drawn between their revolution and the civil war that resulted from it.