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 Management of a lahar disaster using
geoinformatics – the case study of Casita,
Nicaragua

Dr. Norman Kerle

Acknowledgements: Dr. C.
Oppenheimer; Dr. van Wyk
de Vries

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION

Lecture overview:

ƒ Review of the Casita lahar disaster & significance

of mass movements
ƒ How was geoinformatics used to study Casita?
ƒ Lahar detection and characterisation
ƒ Quantitative failure volume analysis
ƒ Disaster response
ƒ Why did the disaster happen?
ƒ Significant in the African context?

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 Honduras

Nicaragua

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 San Cristobal
Casita

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 A holistic disaster
management approach

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Introduction & Background
ƒ At least 40,000 historic lahar fatalities (17% of all victims)
ƒ 9 events claimed 1,000 lives or more
ƒ Not always the largest events that result in the deadliest
lahars – compare St. Helens and Pinatubo with del Ruiz
ƒ Lahars can be syn-eruptive, post-eruptive, or completely
unrelated to eruptive activity, and are triggered by a variety
of processes
ƒ Often occur unexpected, cover large areas, highly
destructive, often associated with clouds
Ä Can be regarded as the most difficult type of disaster to deal
with
ƒ Casita (1405 masl) is a dormant stratovolcano (probably last
active some 8000 years ago), with continued strong
hydrothermal activity
ƒ Casita was the site of the 1998 debris avalanche during
Hurricane Mitch – over 2500 people killed

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Structural and morphological analysis

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 Fault 1
Legend
Normal fault
Thrust fault
Anticlinal ridge
Central ridge
La Pelona pumice
Gravity slide outline Main crater
Crater (La Ollada)
Eastern
Major gully crater
Fumarolic areas

87°00' W 86°55' W
12°45' N

Scarp top

Gravity slide
boundary fault
Fault 2

Rolando Rodriguez
El Porvenir
12°35' N

La Pelona
Caldera
1998 avalanche event
Contours every 200 m
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Structural and morphological Analysis
0501 0503 0505 0507
A B
1405

2
4
1403

1000

1 800
1401

600
3

Scale N
5
1 km

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Calculation of collapse volume

ƒ Volume is an important parameter for lahar modelling

and sediment budgets
ƒ First (qualitative) estimates of 130,000 – 200,000 m3
ƒ The goal here was a quantitative assessment using:
(1) digital photogrammetry in ERDAS Imagine OrthoMAX
(2) interactive extraction of elevation data in Imagine’s
StereoAnalyst
(3) Calculation of pre-collapse surface using a 1:50,000
map
(4) Geodetic surveying of the collapse flank

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 Vd = 1.37 x 106 m3
(1) OrthoMAX Vo = 1.74 x 106 m3

OrthoMAX has now

been replaced by
OrthoBase/LPS, but
careful selection of
DEM parameters is
still required

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 (2) Stereoanalyst V = 1.93 x 106 m3

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 (3) DEM based on topographic map

• Problems with lack of map accuracy, reprojection, and

uncertainty about vegetation correction
Ä Topographic maps, as well as DEMs based on them, are
of limited value for volume calculations
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 (4) Geodetic survey

• Volume calculation
together with pre-collapse
OrthoMAX DEM
Ä 1.6 x 106 m3 (after
vegetation correction)
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Assessment of flow deposits

Thinning
deposits

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 Landscape changes?

Pre-lahar

Post-lahar
-

Significant erosion or deposition?

No
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Disaster response

ƒ The study proceeded with an investigation

of the utility of geoinformatics in disaster
response
ƒ This included the use of high- and low
spatial resolution optical images, as well
as radar data
ƒ It also addressed the integration of
different data types

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So why did the disaster happen?

ƒ Consider additional factors:

ƒ Local deformation
ƒ Hydrothermal activity
ƒ Seismic destabilisation
ƒ Water infiltration
ƒ Deforestation

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 Local deformation and alteration
The photo of the
failure wall shows
local subsidence
and hydrothermal
alteration

So do achieved aerial photographs!

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 Seismic information

Remote sensing is not useful here, but seismic databases exist

– here they showed that potentially destabilising earthquakes
had occurred close to Casita
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 Water infiltration

In a GIS analysis, the watershed was calculated as appr. 75,000

m2 , leading to some 56,000 m3 of rainwater affecting the failure
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 Deforestation

Deforestation of Casita’s southern flank, and the

establishment of towns in the hazardous sector, made the
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So why did the disaster happen?

Many of these factors were identified and

characterised using geoinformatics!

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Limitations of remote sensing

• Vegetation (in photogrammetry and

interferometry)
• Lack of ground penetration

• also: limited spatial, spectral and

radiometric resolution
• Data volumes
• Data cost
• Not all disasters can be successfully
reconstructed and understood
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Significance for Africa?

ƒ Even though this was volcanic example, essentially a

lahar is just another type of mass movement
ƒ Landslides (but also lahars) also exist in Africa
ƒ Examples?
ƒ Problem of the analysis is that post-event reconstruction
is far easier than risk identification
ƒ Which of the data used here are available in your
country?
ƒ Are landslide risks already being evaluated? If not, how
significant do you think is the risk, and what needs to be
done to map and quantify them?

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