ASSIGNMENT 05

OBJECTIVE: To estimate projected trip productions and attractions of seven zones using the
base year trip generations and perform trip distribution using destination constrained gravity
model.

DATA SETS: The base year trip generation data and projected socio-demographic data are
given. The time of travel between zones is also provided from which friction factors can be
calculated.

THEORY: The most widely used trip distribution procedure is the gravity model. As the name
suggests, the gravity model for transportation planning is based on the Gravitational theory of
Newtonian physics. The Newtonian theory predicts that the force or attraction between bodies
is directly proportional to the mass of the bodies and inversely proportional to the square of
the distance between the bodies. Similarly, the gravity model of transportation planning
predicts that the relative number of trips made between two geographical areas or TAZs, is
directly proportional to the number of trip ends (productions or attractions) in each TAZ and
inversely proportional to a function of the spatial separation (or travel time) between those two
areas. Mathematically, the destination constrained gravity model for trip distribution is defined
as follows:

𝑃𝑖 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗 =
∑ 𝑃𝑖 𝐹𝑖𝑗
Where,

Tij = the number of trips from zone i to j

Pi : the number of trip productions in zone i,

Aj : the number of trip attractions in zone j,

Fij: the friction factor relating the spatial separation between zone i and zone j and the equation
for Fij is given as follows:

1
𝐹𝑖𝑗 = 2
𝑑𝑖𝑗
Where dij = distance between zones i & j
RESULTS: From the base year trip generation data we perform regression analysis to frame the
trip production equation using population as the parameter

Coefficient(B) Intercept(A)
3.555135135 -554.0540541
Three possible equations have been tried for trip attraction using two variables each separately
and combined for two variables. Three models are presented below:

Model 1

Model 1(Attraction=f(Retail Floor Space))

Coefficient(B) Intercept(A)
89.21425458 2584.18701
Model 2

Model 2(Attraction=f(Employment))
Coefficient(B) Intercept(A)
7.114334636 1979.521948
Model 3

Model 3(Attraction=f(Retail Floor Space,Employment))

Coefficient(B1) Coefficient(B2) Intercept(A)
3.286146116 64.67846091 518.5275938
The R2 value, t-stat reflects the Model 3 to be exactly simulating the Attraction values and
hence can be reliably chosen

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999155
R Square 0.998311
Adjusted R
Square 0.997467

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat
Intercept 518.5276 312.3171 1.66026
X Variable 1 64.67846 2.57034 25.16339
X Variable 2 3.286146 0.22885 14.35939

Using the above equations of trip production and trip attraction we use the projected
demographic data and calculate the trip production and attraction values of different zones:
 ZONE PRODUCTION ATTRACTION
1 175994 51185
2 197396 224964
3 104536 46719
4 136176 260120
5 118052 66238
6 112030 207687
7 66549 53820
TOTAL 910733 910733
From the travel times given the friction factors are calculated as below:

Origin Destination Zone

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 0.04 0.0178 0.0178 0.01 0.0064 0.0039
2 0.04 0.0816 0.16 0.04 0.0178 0.0083
3 0.0178 0.0816 0.0625 0.0204 0.0156 0.0059
4 0.0178 0.16 0.0625 0.1111 0.04 0.0123
5 0.01 0.04 0.0204 0.1111 0.0123 0.0278
6 0.0064 0.0178 0.0156 0.04 0.0625 0.0278
7 0.0039 0.0083 0.0059 0.0123 0.0278 0.0278

The trip distribution after first iteration using the above mentioned destination constrained
gravity model is given as follows

Origin Destination Zone

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Pi1 Pi/Pi1
1 0 35488 4531 13658 3259 15575 3354 75865 2.32
2 28188 0 23298 137693 14622 48585 8007 260393 0.758
3 6643 43001 0 28484 3949 22549 3014 107640 0.971
4 8653 109835 12310 0 28016 75319 8186 242319 0.562
5 4214 23804 3483 57180 0 20078 16039 124798 0.946
6 2560 10052 2528 19537 12966 0 15220 62863 1.782
7 927 2784 568 3569 3426 25582 0 36856 1.806
Aj1 51185 224964 46718 260121 66238 207688 53820
Aj/Aj1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
The adjustment factors are calculated using the following formulas:

For trip production

𝑃𝑖
𝑇𝑖𝑗′ =
∑ 𝑇𝑖𝑗
And for trip attraction

𝐴𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗′ =
∑ 𝑇𝑖𝑗

The average of these factors is taken to multiply with the values of the corresponding cell and
in this next iterations are obtained. The 6th iteration is shown below:

Origi Destination Zone

n
Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Pi1
1 0 79530 10871 31406 7352 36408 6743 172310
2 24681 0 18550 104427 10850 37543 5208 201259
3 7440 40768 0 27777 3770 22390 2536 104681
4 5821 61682 7499 0 15854 44471 4035 139362
5 4635 22157 3495 54748 0 19574 13243 117852
6 5227 17581 4740 35079 22828 0 23826 109281
7 1869 4801 1051 6319 5947 46064 0 66051
Aj1 49673 226519 46206 259756 66601 206450 55591

After the arrived trip distributions values are at an average deviation of 3-4% of the target
values. By convergence criteria it is almost at the verge of convergence.

DISCUSSIONS: The average trip duration that is calculated by multiplying time with number of
trips interchanged and then adding it up and finally dividing that summation by total no of trips.
The average duration of trips is 5.476mins from the Production-Attraction matrix obtained
above. If the observed average trip length is known then the calculated trip length can be
compared with the observed trip length to comment on the suitability of the friction factor
model.

The Production-Attraction matrix can be converted to Origin-Destination matrix considering

directionality. This step is very important before traffic assignment. The origin-destination
matrix is being shown below considering directionality factor as 0.5. The general formula is
given below to convert a PA matrix to OD matrix.

𝑡i-j = 𝛼 𝑡ij + (1 − 𝛼)ji

Where ti-j = number of trips originating at i and destined at j

tij = number of trips produced at i and destined at j

tji = number of trips produced at j and destined at i

α = directionality factor which is generally taken as 0.5 for practical purposes

Origin Destination Zone

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 0 52015 9156 18613 5994 20817 4306
2 52015 0 29659 83055 16504 27562 5004
3 9156 29659 0 17638 3633 13565 1793
4 18613 83055 17638 0 35301 39775 5177
5 5994 16504 3633 35301 0 21201 9595
6 20817 27562 13565 39775 21201 0 34945
7 4306 5004 1793 5177 9595 34945 0