KENYA ELECTIONS: FALLOUT FROM AN ODINGA VICTORY IN THE 2017 GENERAL ELECTION

Date: Canonical ID:

2017 June 06, 11:46 17NAIROBI3993_a
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CONFIDENTIAL,NOFORN CONFIDENTIAL,NOFORN
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Executive Order:
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TAGS:
KDEM - Democratization | KE - Kenya| PGOV - Political Affairs--Government; -- Not Assigned --
Internal Governmental Affairs | PHUM - Political Affairs--Human Rights
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Office Origin: Archive Status:
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Office Action:
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From:
KENYA NAIROBI -- Not Assigned --
To:
COMBINED JOINT TASK FORCE HORN OF AFRICA | DJIBOUTI
DJIBOUTI | ETHIOPIA ADDIS ABABA | FRANCE PARIS |
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON DEVELOPMENT (IGAD) |
SECRETARY OF STATE | SUDAN KHARTOUM | T ANZANIA DAR ES
SALAAM | UGANDA KAMPALA | UNITED KINGDOM LONDON |
UNITED STATES CENTRAL COMMAND

1 (a) Summary and Introduction. The 2017 general election is just a few
months away. While a Raila Odinga victory is highly unlikely, Embassy
NAIROBI, has compiled the following report, in the event of an improbable
win. We can anticipate mid to long term instability, severe unrest and a
massive break down of law and order. Celebratory violence from Luos
(Odinga's ethnic group) who have felt excluded from power since
independence , will aggressively assert their newfound strength,
especially in the first few months of the new administration, possibly
provoking considerable social anarchy, rather than creating an
environment for inter -ethnic cooperation and reconciliation. Post
Nairobi, expects further balkanization of various ethnic communities in Kenya
that could precipitate a collapse of the Nation. This report includes an
ECONOMIC, MILITARY, and a SOCIAL-POLITICAL scenario in the unlikely event of
a Raila Odinga victory.
End Summary.
Economic Fallout.
2 (b) We project an internal breakdown of key segments of the Kenyan
economy. The dissent will come from business owners, land owners and foreign
investors due to high levels of corruption that will characterize the new
administration, right from its infancy. We expect a sharp decline in FDI’s,
due to capital flight, and the lack of confidence from foreign investors.

This in turn will cause massive liquidity problems after wealthy Kenyans withdraw
money from banks causing a cash crunch. This is especially true with regards to
Kikuyu and Asian communities, since they own major business interests in Kenya,
and would be wary of the wealth redistribution economic message from the Odinga
campaign. We project a severe economic slowdown and the unpredictability of the
Kenyan economy, leading to hyper inflation, and the collapse of the Kenya
shilling. The Nation’s nascent oil extraction industry will grind down to a halt.
Tullow oil and other oil majors currently prospecting for oil will pull out of
Kenya with an insurgency raging in North Western Kenya, reminiscent to the Niger
delta in Nigeria, funded by local leaders affiliated to the NASA coalition.

Military Fallout.

3 (b) Upsurge in terror related activities in Kenya from Somalia after a

withdrawal of Kenyan forces, which is Odinga’s stated goal. We are deeply
thankful to our Kenyan partners for their efforts, and the sacrifices of her
sons and daughters serving with AMISOM in Somalia. A hasty withdrawal will have
huge ramifications of epic proportions. An Odinga victory will also undermine
USG and GoK military cooperation that has been existence since 1963. Of concern,
is a corrupt element within his campaign, especially Jimmy Wanjigi, who has been
mentioned in various scandals involving shadowy Chinese elements, in procuring
security related hardware, and remains banned from entry into the United States.
KDF is undertaking a modernization program of its military hardware with our
assistance, through the Foreign Military Program, and this could be severely
jeopardized, affecting troop readiness and the USG’s supported expedition in
Somalia. We will continue to encourage President Kenyatta to stay the cause
until the mission is accomplished. We stand shoulder to shoulder with KDF and
AMISOM’s continued operations in Somalia to pacify Juba land in Southern
Somalia.

Social-Political Breakdown.

4 (c) Instability and insurrection will precipitate in areas populated by

Muslims, from North Eastern Kenya to the Coast region due to sharia law
implementation. Odinga signed an MOU with a section of hard-line Muslim leaders
to implement this law, and the agreement is still in effect. Further to this,
Kenya will be a regional hub for drug trafficking. His campaign is financed by a
major Indian Ocean criminal enterprise stretching from Pakistan to Mombasa,
Kenya. Links to terrorism cannot be ruled out. Politicians from Mombasa are
known to be major players in the narcotics trade. Reports indicate they are
linked to the Haqqani Criminal Enterprise in the Afghan/ Pakistan tribal areas.
We also anticipate Zimbabwe style land invasions and occupations especially in
Laikipia, at the white owned/ leased wildlife sanctuaries and ranches. The
United Kingdom is planning military contingencies, to protect their overseas
citizens. We also see an upsurge in cattle rustling and banditry in Kenya’s
frontier provinces, with outright support from local NASA legislators, with the
sole aim of grabbing the large tracts of land in the adjacent areas. The East
African region will experience bouts of instability due to breakdown of
transportation, supply chains and infrastructure in the vital northern corridor.
South Sudan will be particularly affected, as the Nation relies heavily on the
Port of Mombasa.

5 (d) An Odinga victory would signify a CLEAR and PRESENT danger to Kenya and
the Horn of Africa AOR, by emboldening non state actors with nefarious
intentions (Al- Shabaab/Al-Qaida, large criminal organization, pirates and
wildlife traffickers), and will accelerate proliferation of small arms and
assault weapons in an already volatile region.

RSO Post-Nairobi is coordinating with our listening post at the AFRICOM HQ’s-
Kelly Barracks, Stuttgart, Germany, to monitor NASA party communications. We are
also coordinating with the Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTFHOA) at
Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, for surveillance and regular briefings.

Post- Nairobi, recommends quiet support for the incumbent (status quo) by
encouraging a robust voter education program and a high Jubilee voter turnout.

An Odinga Victory will not align with USG strategic interests in Kenya and the
wider East Africa region, and our objectives in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Post-Nairobi has put a strong post-election contingency team to deal with any
crisis that might erupt especially from Mr. Odinga’s supporters, after he
suffers a humiliating defeat. Our in house polling projects a strong showing
by the President’s party with a first round victory of 53.7%.

Our travel advisory updated on6 April 2017 remains in effect through31 August
2017.

CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump

Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s
economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s
administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and
a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot
afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their
dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our
values.

FOR SECRETARY OF STATE. WASHINGTON D.C