Mountain Weather Forecast

Lake District National Park

Forecast valid from 06:00 on Monday 19 Mar 2018 until 23:59 on Tuesday 20 Mar 2018
Forecast Issued on Monday 19 Mar 2018 at 03:23

Confidence: High for cold and mainly dry conditions at start of week and for becoming milder from mid-week,
though less confidence for timings, especially in relation to rain Thursday and Friday.
Headline for Monday 19 Mar 2018: A cold day with bright or sunny spells and a few isolated light snow showers.

Mountain weather hazards on Monday 19 Mar 2018

Blizzards Heavy Snow Storm force winds
Low likelihood No likelihood No likelihood
Gales Severe chill effect Poor visibility
Low likelihood High likelihood Low likelihood
Thunderstorms Heavy persistent rain Strong sunlight
No likelihood No likelihood Low likelihood

Weather and chance of precipitation at 800m

Time
06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00

Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny Cloudy Cloudy

Precipitation probability
20% 10% 10% 10% 40% 30%

Forecast for Monday 19 Mar 2018 2018-03-19

Weather: A bright day with sunny spells, but a few isolated light snow showers around. Cloud thickening late afternoon
with a risk of some patchy light snow in the evening, though mostly onto northeastern aspects. Still very cold with a
severe chill at all levels but gradually becoming less windy.

Chance of cloud free mountain/hill tops above 800m: generally around 60% over the west of the park where cloud
will be more broken, otherwise 30 or 40% with periods of cloud down to 800m, but 600m with showers and in snow later.

Visibility: Very good with good clarity to the air, but reducing to a few kilometres in showers and poor at times where
softer and more powdery lying snow is lifted and blown around.

Check our weather forecast every day to get the most accurate and up to date information
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecast
(C) Crown Copyright 2018. All Rights Reserved
 Mountain Weather Forecast

Forecast for Monday 19 Mar 2018

Height (m) Wind Speed mean/gusts (mph) Wind Direction (blowing from)
06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
900 47/55 NE 44/53 NE 34/43 NE 33/42 NE 31/38 NE 30/36 NE 25/30 NE
600 35/43 NE 37/44 NE 30/39 NE 29/37 NE 24/31 NE 22/28 NE 17/23 N
300 5/27 NE 14/40 NE 14/35 NE 14/34 NE 10/26 NE 9/25 NE 5/18 N
Valley 6/25 NE 13/37 NE 16/39 NE 12/33 NE 10/27 NE 7/23 NE 6/18 N

Height (m) Temperature / Feels Like (°C)

06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00
900 -7/-19 -6/-18 -4/-13 -3/-12 -5/-14 -5/-14 -5/-13
600 -4/-14 -3/-13 -1/-9 0/-8 -2/-9 -2/-10 -3/-9
300 -1/-4 1/-5 3/-2 3/-2 1/-4 0/-4 -1/-4
Valley 1/-2 2/-2 5/1 6/2 3/0 2/-1 1/-2
Freezing Level* 0m 0m 200m 300m 200m 200m 100m
*Level above which ground is expected to be frozen/snow is expected to settle.

Meteorologist’s View
Strong or gale force northeasterly winds and somewhat stronger over the summits, possibly 45 mph gusts 60mph in the
morning. Winds will gradually ease and freezing level will lift a touch but still a severe chill at al heights.

Forecast for Tuesday 20 Mar 2018 2018-03-20

Weather: Mostly cloudy at first but patchy light snow will soon clear and some clear spells will develop by dawn. Then
bright or sunny spells on Tuesday but still the odd snow shower. Clear spells in the evening, but some mist or fog
developing at low levels. Still cold conditions but less severe than previous days and less windy, though still a severe
chill at most levels.
Maximum wind: Northerly 20 to 25 gust 35mph over the tops in early hours, but becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 gust
30 mph in the morning. Increasing 25 to 30 gust 40 mph later over the tops.

Chance of cloud free mountain/hill tops above 800m: 60% with well broken cloud above or close to summit level,
although some patches down to 600m with showers and lower chance onto northern aspects at first, around 20% with
broken cloud down to 600m

Visibility: Generally excellent with good clarity to the air but reducing in the afternoon with mid to far distant hills
becoming rather hazy and poor at low levels later

Temperature: Valleys: Zero or plus 1 Celsius rising to plus 6 Celsius by day

At 800m: Minus 3 Celsius rising to zero Celsius.
Freezing level: Gradually rising to 600m

Check our weather forecast every day to get the most accurate and up to date information
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecast
(C) Crown Copyright 2018. All Rights Reserved
 Mountain Weather Forecast
Ground Conditions Supplement
Sunday 18 March. Helvellyn summit at 13:10 Despite both the overnight and daytime snow, the ground conditions today
were surprisingly similar to Saturday as the fresh snow has only added marginally to existing accumulations. There is
now a skittering of snow down to valley level, although there is a slow thaw below 250m. The fresh snow/hail was
deposited on strong E winds with many windswept areas being devoid of snow with some paths below 600m even being
dry. Conversely, there was also some ice on paths at all levels, occasionally hidden beneath the fresh snow creating
treacherous conditions. Above 600m are large, significant and often unavoidable patches of old, hard, icy snow
sometimes under the fresh, soft snow. Given the current forecast for an overnight frost, it is highly likely that walkers out
on Monday will also encounter this hard snow. Above 600m and especially above 800m many rocks were intermittently
covered with verglas (thin ice) or rime ice making the going slow and treacherous – especially on exposed routes. The
summit plateau was also covered in verglas, rime ice and hard snow. This fact, combined with yet another day of strong
and gusty winds, meant that crampons were useful even on this flattish ground in order to maintain balance. Cornices
exist on N through E to S aspects; although they have strengthened with the drop in temperature, it is not advisable to
check this theory, especially given that some on Helvellyn’s edges have noticeable cracks above and below them, so
please keep well back from such edges and advise those with less experience to do likewise. Exposed routes above the
snowline, such as Striding and Swirral Edges, are in winter condition and should only be attempted by those experienced
in, and equipped for, winter mountaineering. This is due to the amount of hard, icy snow – in the case of the Edges
especially near and on their exits. Climbers. Several climbers were making the most of the hard snow, although some
encountered some patches of softer snow on Browncove crags, but were finding the strength of the wind “brutal”!
Obviously, watch out for any cornices. Full winter clothing, footwear and equipment are essential for anyone venturing
out onto the fells; the summit windchill at 1pm was minus 23 degrees – as it was on Saturday – really testing walkers’
windproofs and insulating layers! For those attempting, or traversing, steep slopes above the snowline an ice axe and
crampons are also absolutely essential given the current amount of hard, icy snow. This is the case even on so called
“easy” routes such as, for example, the path up Helvellyn from Swirrls car park where last week’s accident occurred. The
strength of the wind makes it even more important to have a good grip on the hard snow which only crampons and ice
axe can provide. Excellent navigational skills are also required especially in cloud as the current snow obscures all
landmarks creating challenging route finding. Goggles are also highly recommended as the recent soft snow/hail

Check our weather forecast every day to get the most accurate and up to date information
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecast
(C) Crown Copyright 2018. All Rights Reserved
 Mountain Weather Forecast
combined with the wind creates stinging spindrift.Temperature: minus 7.8 C. Maximum wind speed 62.1 mph. Wind chill:
minus 23.5C. Average wind speed: 49.6mph.

Issued at: 03:23 on Mon 19 Mar 2018

Check our weather forecast every day to get the most accurate and up to date information
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecast
(C) Crown Copyright 2018. All Rights Reserved