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Language Objectives:
1. Develop a statistical test for goodness of fit based on a mathematical model that is appropriate for the
data
2. Compare a sample statistic to values in a sampling distribution
3. Describe possible hypotheses for a significance test
4. Interpret the meaning of a test statistic
5. Justify evidence for or against a hypothesis
Essential Question: How can a chi-square statistic help us make decisions on whether each component of a
distribution is equally likely to occur?
Materials: Copies of “Schoolopoly Task” handout (one per student), device such as laptop, Chromebook, or
tablet with access to the internet, calculators (one per student), classroom projector connected to device
Notes to the reader: Beforehand, have each of the following on a separate tab open in your internet browser
and projected to the class:
● A digital copy of the “Schoolopoly Task” handout
● The Schoolopoly simulation: https://www.geogebra.org/m/KBAEuEJh
● The fair dice-rolling simulation: https://tinyurl.com/ycwq4nyl
● Google Form for submitting the χ2 statistics: Use your own Google Form (docs.google.com/forms)
creation & link. Possible setup:
● https://codap.concord.org/
It is assumed that students have already experienced
● Writing null and alternative hypotheses for population parameters for significance testing
● Basic probability and understanding of equally likely events
● The Law of Large numbers and the advantages of repeating trials or samples many times
● Sampling distributions
● Basics of Inference Testing
Teacher: “We will begin by stating hypotheses. Students will follow along and participate by
Recall that a null hypothesis should state a claim raising their hands to write the null and
about our population of interest.” alternative hypotheses on the “Schoolopoly
Task” handout.
Question Posed to Students: Do you have
any ideas about what our null hypothesis Possible Question Posed to Teacher:
should say? Why would we not let the null hypothesis
be that the company’s dice are unfair?
Possible Student Response: We should
state that the company’s dice are fair (or that Possible Teacher Response: Remember
each side is equally likely to appear). in significance tests, we are practicing the
“innocent until proven guilty” approach.
Let’s give the company the benefit of the
Teacher will direct students to write the null
doubt and use our sample to either
hypothesis on their handouts:
conclude they are fair or unfair.
H 0 : Each number on Luckytown Dice
Company’s dice faces are equally likely to
appear. Possible Question Posed to Teacher: In
past hypothesis tests, we have used
symbols such as μ and p. Why are we no
longer using these symbols?
Question Posed to Students: Do you have
any ideas about what our alternative Possible Teacher Response: Note that
hypothesis should say? we are stating a claim about a distribution
of a categorical variable (result of dice roll)
Possible Student Response: We should
state that the company’s dice are not fair (or instead of a single parameter. It is simply
that each side is not equally likely to appear). easier to write in words instead of symbols.
We could however, use symbols if we
wanted to:
Teacher will direct students to write the null
H 0 : p1 = 61 , p2 = 61 , p3 = 61 , p4 = 61 , p5 = 61 ,
hypothesis on their handouts:
p6 = 61
H a : Each number on Luckytown Dice H a : at least two of the pi ’s are incorrect
Where pi = the true proportion of
Company’s dice faces are not equally likely to
appearances of each number on the dice
appear.
The teacher will read the next line on the The students will follow along with the
“Schoolopoly Task” handout (“Imagine that you teacher and read the next line on the
would like to roll…”) “Schoolopoly Task” handout ( (“Imagine that
you would like to roll…”)
Teacher: “Take a moment to think about this
question and write down the values you would Students will individually write down in Table
expect for each number if the die is fair in Table 1 on the handout what they believe to be the
1.” answer to the question: “If the dice is fair,
how many times would you expect each
Give students 30-45 seconds to do this. The number on the faces of the dice to appear?”
teacher will walk around the room and make
sure students are answering in the appropriate
table on the handout. The teacher will also look
for students with incorrect answers and speak
with them individually or address as a whole
class.
On your device, navigate to the link provided on Students will type the link into their internet
your handout: browsers.
https://www.geogebra.org/m/KBAEuEJh.”
Teacher: “Great observation. But did this Students will read the definition of “observed
happen by chance or is the dice really unfair? It counts” on their handout then observe the
appears as if the other numbers appear about percentages in the table given on the website
the same number of times, doesn’t it? Let’s and use their calculators (if so inclined) to
explore further. Note the simulation gives the multiply each percentage by 500 and record
percentage for each number in a table at the top in Table 2 on the handout.
left of the webpage. Use these percentages to
calculate the observed counts, that is, the
number of times each number appears in your
sample of 500, and write them in Table 2 on your
handout. For example, on my simulation of 500
rolls, the number 1 appeared 17.8% of the time.
This would be 500(.178)=89 appearances.
The definition of observed counts can be found
on your handout.”
Teacher: “After you have completed your Students will read and answer the problem,
calculations, take a moment to read and answer “Compare your observed counts with your
question 3 on your handout.” expected counts. Do the differences or
similarities lead you to believe that the dice
The teacher will walk around the room for 2-3 are fair or unfair?”
minutes to make sure students are on task and
read sample responses to the question.
Teacher: “Find Table 3 on your handout. We will Students will locate the first column in Table
use this table to calculate chi-square. First, copy 3 on their handouts and write their observed
your observed counts from Table 2 into the first counts for all rows.
column labeled ‘Observed Counts’.
Teacher: “Now, copy your expected counts from Students will locate Table 3 on their handouts
Table 1 into the second column.” and write 83.3 for all rows in the second
column.
Give the students 30 seconds or so to do this.
Walk around the room looking that the students
are on task and they are all filling in 83.3 for all
rows in the second column.
Teacher will move to the front of the room to Students should be looking at teacher and
engage in a conversation with students about engaging in conversation by raising their
the implications of chi-square. hands to respond to the posed questions.
Then, the teacher will walk around the room to Possible Question Posed to
make sure students are on task and navigating Teacher:Why are we compiling a sampling
to the correct webpage. distribution of 500 rolls of a fair dice?
Sheets” button:
2. Once your spreadsheet has opened,
choose File, Download As,
Comma-separated values (.csv,
current sheet) to save your document
in .csv form.
3. Navigate to https://codap.concord.org/
4. Click the “Try CODAP” button, then
“Create New Document.”
5. Click the menu button in the top left
corner of the page and choose
“import”.
6. Locate the .csv file you saved in Step
2. Once you’ve selected your file, your
table should appear.
7. Select the graph icon at the top of the
Appendix:
● Schoolopoly Task Handout
● Homework
● Handout Possible Solutions
● Homework Possible Solutions
Name _____________________________________________ Date ________________ Class Period ______
Schoolopoly Task
Suppose your school is planning to create a board game modeled on the classic game of Monopoly. The
game is to be called Schoolopoly and, like Monopoly, will be played with dice. Because many copies of the
game expect to be sold, companies are competing for the contract to supply dice for Schoolopoly. Some
companies have been accused of making poor-quality dices, and these are to be avoided, since players must
believe the dice they are using are actually “fair.”
One such company is Luckytown Dice Company. Let’s investigate the fairness of the dice they produce.
Guided Notes
H 0 : _____________________________________________________________
H a : _____________________________________________________________
Imagine that you would like to roll a dice from Luckytown Dice Company 500 times. If the dice is fair, how
many times would you expect each number on the faces of the dice to appear? Write these values in the table
below.
Table 1:
Number Rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6
Expected counts are the expected numbers of appearances in the sample that would fall in each category if
H 0 were true.
Let’s each simulate rolling Luckytown Dice Company’s dice 500 times using this online applet:
https://www.geogebra.org/m/KBAEuEJh. (To use the applet, place a checkmark by your assigned company
and type “500” for the space beside “Number of Rolls =.”)
Observed counts are the actual number of appearances for each category in a sample.
2. Copy the observed counts of each number in the 500 rolls of your company’s dice. Note, these should
be actual numbers (out of 500) not percents.
Table 2:
Number Rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6
Observed Counts
in 500 rolls
3. Compare your observed counts with your expected counts. Do the differences or similarities lead you to
believe that the dice are fair or unfair?
Chi-square statistic (χ2 ) a test statistic that measures how far the observed counts are from the expected
counts.
4. Complete the following table to calculate the chi-square test statistic for your 500 rolls of Luckytown
Dice Company’s dice.
Table 3:
Observed Expected Observed - (Observed - (Observed -
2 2
Counts Counts Expected Expected ) Expected ) /
Expected
Now find the sum of the values in the last column. This value is the chi-square statistic.
χ2 = _________
5. How do you think the value of χ2 changes when the dice are fair versus when they are unfair?
For comparison, let’s simulate 500 rolls of a dice that is known to be fair. https://tinyurl.com/ycwq4nyl
Use the settings shown above to generate counts of each number when
rolling a fair dice 500 times.
6. Write your generated counts of each number from 500 rolls of a fair die:
Table 4:
Number Rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6
Table 5:
Observed Expected Observed - (Observed - (Observed -
2 2
Counts Counts Expected Expected ) Expected ) /
Expected
6
Sum of values in last column = χ2 = _________
8. How does your value of χ2 calculated from Luckytown Dice Company’s 500 rolls compare to your value
of χ2 calculated from 500 rolls of a known fair dice?
9. Simulate 500 rolls of a fair dice two more times. Calculate χ2 each time and submit all three values of
χ2 from the fair dice on this Google Form: https://goo.gl/forms/yLfG4xeyBEUBUyeY2.
Table 6
Rolling a Fair Die 500 Times Value of χ2
Attempt 1
Attempt 2
Attempt 3
Your teacher will create a class dotplot of all the calculated values of χ2 in your class.
10. Based on the class dotplot, how surprising would it be to get a χ2 -value as large or larger than the one
you calculated for the 500 rolls of Luckytown Dice Company’s dice?
11. What conclusion would you make about the fairness of Luckytown Dice Company’s die? Would you
reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis written in Question 1?
Homework:
There are five other companies that have provided dice for analysis. Using the Schoolopoly dice rolling
simulation website (https://www.geogebra.org/m/KBAEuEJh), roll a die 500 times for each of the five
companies. Then, calculate each company’s χ2 statistic. Then, compare your value of χ2 with the class dotplot
and write a conclusion on whether you believe the company’s dice are fair.
Dice ‘R’ Us
1 2 3 4 5 6
Suppose your school is planning to create a board game modeled on the classic game of Monopoly. The
game is to be called Schoolopoly and, like Monopoly, will be played with dice. Because many copies of the
game expect to be sold, companies are competing for the contract to supply dice for Schoolopoly. Some
companies have been accused of making poor-quality dices, and these are to be avoided, since players must
believe the dice they are using are actually “fair.”
One such company is Luckytown Dice Company. Let’s investigate the fairness of the dice they produce.
Guided Notes
H 0 : Each number on Luckytown Dice Company’s dice faces are equally likely to appear.
H a : Each number on Luckytown Dice Company’s dice faces are not equally likely to appear.
Imagine that you would like to roll a dice from Luckytown Dice Company 500 times. If the dice is fair, how
many times would you expect each number on the faces of the dice to appear? Write these values in the table
below.
Table 1:
Number Rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6
Expected counts are the expected numbers of appearances in the sample that would fall in each category if
H 0 were true.
Let’s each simulate rolling Luckytown Dice Company’s dice 500 times using this online applet:
https://www.geogebra.org/m/KBAEuEJh. (To use the applet, place a checkmark by your assigned company
and type “500” for the space beside “Number of Rolls =.”)
Observed counts are the actual number of appearances for each category in a sample.
13. Copy the observed counts of each number in the 500 rolls of your company’s dice. Note, these will be
actual numbers (out of 500) not percents.
Table 2:
Number Rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6
14. Compare your observed counts with your expected counts. Do the differences or similarities lead you to
believe that the dice are fair or unfair?
Possible Response: My observed counts were different from my expected counts. All of my observed counts
for numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 are larger than expected (83.3), while the observed counts for 5 is much lower
than expected. Since these observations are different than I would expect if the dice are fair, I believe that
Luckytown Dice Company’s dice are unfair.
Chi-square statistic (χ2 ) a test statistic that measures how far the observed counts are from the expected
counts.
15. Complete the following table to calculate the chi-square test statistic for your 500 rolls of Luckytown
Dice Company’s dice.
Table 3:
Observed Expected Observed - (Observed - (Observed -
2 2
Counts Counts Expected Expected ) Expected ) /
Expected
1 89 83.3 6 36 0.404
2 98 83.3 9 81 0.972
Now find the sum of the values in the last column. This value is the chi-square statistic.
χ2 = 73.774
16. How do you think the value of χ2 changes when the dice are fair versus when they are unfair?
I think that values of chi-square will be larger when the dice are unfair because it means that the observed
counts are further away from the expected counts if the die were fair.
For comparison, let’s simulate 500 rolls of a dice that is known to be fair. https://tinyurl.com/ycwq4nyl
Use the settings shown above to generate counts of each number when
rolling a fair dice 500 times.
17. Write your generated counts of each number from 500 rolls of a fair die:
Table 4:
Number Rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6
Table 5:
Observed Expected Observed - (Observed - (Observed -
2 2
Counts Counts Expected Expected ) Expected ) /
Expected
19. How does your value of χ2 calculated from Luckytown Dice Company’s 500 rolls compare to your value
of χ2 calculated from 500 rolls of a known fair dice?
My χ2 value from Luckytown Dice Company’s 500 rolls is much larger than my value of χ2 calculated from 500
rolls of a known fair dice.
20. Simulate 500 rolls of a fair dice two more times. Calculate χ2 each time and submit all three values of
χ2 from the fair dice on this Google Form: https://goo.gl/forms/yLfG4xeyBEUBUyeY2.
Table 6
Rolling a Fair Die 500 Times Value of χ2
Attempt 1 2.08
Attempt 2 7.73
Attempt 3 7.2
Your teacher will create a class dotplot of all the calculated values of χ2 in your class.
21. Based on the class dotplot, how surprising would it be to get a χ2 -value as large or larger than the one
you calculated for the 500 rolls of Luckytown Dice Company’s dice?
The chi-square statistic I calculated for Luckytown Dice Company was 73.774. This value never occurred on
the sampling distribution. This means that obtaining a chi-square statistic this high would be very surprising to
occur by chance if the dice were fair.
22. What conclusion would you make about the fairness of Luckytown Dice Company’s die? Would you
reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis written in Question 1?
We would reject the null hypothesis. There is significant evidence to say each number on Luckytown Dice
Company’s dice faces are not equally likely to appear, that is, Luckytown Dice Company’s dice are unfair.
Homework:
There are five other companies that have provided dice for analysis. Using the Schoolopoly dice rolling
simulation website (https://www.geogebra.org/m/KBAEuEJh), roll a die 500 times for each of the five
companies. Then, calculate each company’s χ2 statistic. Then, compare your value of χ2 with the class dotplot
and write a conclusion on whether you believe the company’s dice are fair.
63 93 113 98 79 54
65 110 71 81 72 101
51 86 107 104 90 62
84 64 78 94 97 83