Government of India

Earth System Science Organization

Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department

Dated: 08th March, 2018

Current Weather Status and Outlook for next two weeks

Highlights of the past week
Precipitation:
o Western Disturbances as troughs / cyclonic circulations moved across the western
Himalayan region in quick succession and caused fairly widespread to widespread
precipitation over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on 2-3 days.
Uttarakhand received isolated to scattered rain / snow for 2 days. Punjab and
Haryana also reported rainfall on one day.
o Fairly widespread to widespread Rain / Thundershowers occurred over Arunachal
Pradesh (with heavy rainfall on 5th) and at isolated to scattered places over Sub-
Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam & Meghalaya on a few days.
o Wind confluence caused widespread thunder showers ( resulting in light rainfall)
over Jharkhand on 5th March and at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh, Uttar
Pradesh and Chattisgarh on one or two days.
o Feeble troughs in easterlies caused isolated rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and
Andaman & Nicobar Islands on one or two days.

Fog:
o Dense fog occurred at isolated pockets over Jammu & Kashmir, sub-Himalayan
west Bengal, Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh in the morning hours on one/ two
days.

Temperatures:
o Heat wave conditions prevailed at isolated places over coastal areas of Saurashtra
and Konkan on 28th Feb & 1st March.
o Maximum temperatures of the order of 35ºC or more were reported over major parts
of central and eastern India.
o The highest maximum temperature reported was 43.0˚C at Nandurbar in Madhya
Maharashtra on 3rd March 2018.
o The lowest minimum temperature reported over the plains was 8.0˚C at Adampur
(Punjab) on 6th March 2018.

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Weekly Rainfall Scenario (01st to 07th March 2018)

During the week, rainfall was below the Long Period Average (LPA) by 30% over the
country as a whole. Details are given below:

Actual Normal % Departure from

Regions
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) LPA
Country as a whole 4.4 6.3 -30%
Northwest India 6.9 10.4 -34%
Central India 0.0 2.3 -99%
South Peninsula 0.0 2.5 -98%
East & northeast India 14.4 11.1 +29%

The Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure I.

Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1st to 7th March 2018)

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s pre-monsoon
season 2018 upto 7th March is below LPA by 30%. Details of the rainfall distribution over
the four broad homogeneous regions of India are given below:

Actual Normal % Departure from

Regions
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) LPA
Country as a whole 4.4 6.3 -30%
Northwest India 6.9 10.4 -34%
Central India 0.0 2.3 -99%
South Peninsula 0.0 2.5 -98%
East & northeast India 14.4 11.1 +29%

Cumulative seasonal rainfall is given in Annexure II.

Chief synoptic conditions as on 8th March 2018

o A Western Disturbance (WD) as an upper air cyclonic circulation at 3.1 km. above
mean sea level lies over eastern parts of Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan.
o Another WD as a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies runs with its axis at 5.8 km
above mean sea level roughly along Longitude 58˚E to the north of Latitude 28˚N.
o A cyclonic circulation lies over eastern parts of Bangla Desh and and neighbourhood
at 1.5 km. above mean sea level.
o Another cyclonic circulation at 1.5 km. above mean sea level lies over north Madhya
Maharashtra and neighbourhood.
 o A trough of low at mean sea level lies over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining
southeast Bay of Bengal.
o Another trough of low at mean sea level runs from Lakshadweep area to Konkan
along the west coast. It extends upto 0.9 km. above mean sea level.
o A cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km.above mean sea level lies over
Maldives and adjoining Comorin area.

Large scale features as on 8th March 2018

o The prevailing La-Nina conditions are on the decline at present, on account of the
central Pacific warming during the past 2 weeks. The corresponding atmospheric
conditions indicate a neutral ENSO phase.
o Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 3 (eastern Indian Ocean) with amplitude
slightly more than 1 and is likely to remain in phase 3 with further weakening of
amplitude during the next 2 weeks.
o Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Also the IOD events are unable to
form between December & April.
o The mid-latitude circulation pattern is currently in the ‘High Index’ phase.
o The core of the sub-tropical westerly jet stream over the Indian region is seen
roughly along the Latitudinal belt 20-25˚N.

Forecast for next two weeks

Weather systems and associated Precipitation & temperature pattern during week 1
(8th – 14th March 2018) and week 2 (15th – 21st March 2018)
Western Disturbances & Easterly waves

o WDs are likely to affect western Himalayan region and subsequently northeast India
in a successive manner. However, deep amplitude troughs and their interaction with
easterlies are not that likely.
o The model forecast easterlies are of subdued amplitude, thereby likely to affect the
southernmost peninsula only.

Rainfall for week 1: (8th – 14th March 2018)

o Normal rainfall likely over most parts of India outside Northeastern States, where
slightly above normal rainfall likely to occur. The precipitation associated with the WDs
is likely to be below normal over Western Himalayan region. (Annexure IV).

Rainfall for week 2: (15th – 21st March 2018)

o Normal rainfall over major parts of the country outside northeast India and extreme
south peninsula where above normal rainfall is likely. (Annexure IV).
Maximum Temperatures for week 1: (8th – 14th March 2018)

o Maximum temperatures are likely to continue to be above normal over most parts of
India with some places over north India, central India and eastern coastal region is
likely to have 4 to 6 degree above normal temperatures. (Annexure V).
o There is a small likelihood of isolated heat wave conditions over parts of Telangana
and Odisha.

MaximumTemperatures for week 2: (15th – 21st March 2018)

o Above normal maximum temperatures are likely to continue over northern parts of India
and adjoining central India and parts of eastern coastal region. However, parts of
central India and adjoining peninsula will have below normal maximum temperatures.
(Annexure V).

Cyclogenesis probability:
o No cyclogenesis likely as per the numerical model guidance during the forecast period.

Next weekly update will be issued on next Thursday i.e. 15th March 2018.
 Annexure I
Weekly Meteorological sub-divisional percentage departure of rainfall
Annexure II
 Annexure III

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS

08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS
MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA D D ISOL ISOL ISOL TS ISOL ISOL
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA D D ISOL ISOL ISOL TS ISOL ISOL
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM D D D ISOL ISOL D D
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D ISOL ISOL D D
7 ODISHA D ISOL D ISOL ISOL D D
8 JHARKHAND ISOL D D ISOL ISOL D D
9 BIHAR D D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND D D D D D ISOL ISOL
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D D D D D ISOL
14 PUNJAB ISOL D D D D D ISOL
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D ISOL D D ISOL ISOL SCT
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL ISOL D D SCT SCT FWS
17 WEST RAJASTHAN D D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTHAN D ISOL D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL D D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA D D D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA D D ISOL ISOL D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH D ISOL ISOL ISOL D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH D D D D D D D
29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D
31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D
34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D ISOL ISOL
35 KERALA ISOL ISOL D D ISOL ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP ISOL D D D D ISOL ISOL
LEGENDS:
WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL
● ●● ●●●
Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
 # +
FOG * SNOWFALL HAILSTORM HEAT WAVE  SEVERE HEAT WAVE
$
THUNDER SQUALL DS/TS
DUST/THUNDERSTORM COLD WAVE - SEVERE COLD WAVE
Annexure IV
Annexure V