Technology’s Rapid Progress 1

Running Head: TECHNOLOGY’S RAPID PROGRESS

The Future is Still Bright: Technology’s Rapid Progress

Chloe H. Iurillo

Glen Allen High School

Introduction
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Evolution in technology dates back to prehistoric times, with the innate human tendency

to advance resulting in constant innovation. As humankind has evolved and continued to grow,

technology has been created and implemented to fit the newfound needs and desires of society.

However, over the past century, the rate at which technology has advanced has been exponential,

with nearly every facet of human society being altered in some way due to this growth. When the

amount of progress technology has made in the past century numerically is layed out, the result

is shocking and unsettling to many. Because so much of this advancement is new and unfamiliar,

a discrepancy has formed between those who see this growth as a positive, and those who see it

as harmful. This debate has ultimately left the question of whether today’s rapid technological

growth will prove truly beneficial or detrimental, up for interpretation.

History and Concepts

While technology has consistently been evolving for as long as humans have lived,

several concepts and predictions accompany the recent exponential growth. Perhaps one of the

most widely accepted and anticipated concepts relating to technological growth is that of

Moore’s Law. In Cusumano and Yoffie’s Extrapolating from Moore’s Law (2016), the topic of

Moore’s Law is explored, as well as its continued influence in various technology companies

today. The article briefly explains the idea behind Moore’s Law created in the 60’s, which

predicted an exponential growth in technology to occur, mainly due to a doubling in “transistors”

every “18 to 24 months” (Cusumano & Yoffie, 2016). The article explains how with Moore’s

Law in mind, founders at Intel, Microsoft, and Apple have all applied this logic to their

companies, with Intel continuing to constantly embellish and add to their processing systems,

Microsoft choosing to focus more on software than hardware, and Apple becoming inspired to

stick to simple products that would appeal to constant updating (Cusumano & Yoffie, 2016).
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Overall, this article demonstrates the veracity of Moore’s Law, and the implications that can

already be observed in society.

Furthermore, another theorized concept on the topic of technology’s growth is that of

dematerialization. In the article Dematerialization (1990), Herman, Ardekani, and Ausubel

provide a unique stance on the concept of dematerialization, defining it as “the decline over time

in weight of the materials used” in industrial products. Though the final consensus of the article

is rather ambiguous, it makes for a more broad standpoint, that looks at both the positives and

negatives, as well as consumer reaction, quantity, and a correlation with wealth (Herman et. al,

1990). While the article does not take on an argumentative stance, the predictions it makes are

consistent throughout.

Transportation

A concept that thoroughly exemplifies technology’s rapid growth is that of transportation,

with personal vehicles being seen as a luxury to few less than a century ago, yet now a staple in

almost every American home. The idea of driverless cars, once viewed as a fantasy, are now

beginning to seem like a reality in the not so distant future. Duranton in Transitioning to

Driverless Cars (2016) investigates the logistics and implications of self-driving cars, ultimately

highlighting the benefits of this transition. With predictions such as less casualties due to

accidents, freedom for those physically or mentally impaired, environmental impacts, and many

others, Duranton makes a compelling and persuasive argument in favor of driverless vehicles

(Duranton, 2016). Additionally, in The Future of the Transport Industry (2017), Marr

investigates the the current self-driving vehicles in production, and their expected outcomes. One

of the projects Marr discusses is Google’s Waymo, a driverless cars that has “already logged the

equivalent of 300 years” of driving, and is expected to free time and make roadways safer (Marr,
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2017). Marr goes on to explore “potential drone air taxi[s]” and Amazon’s plan to use

“unmanned aerial vehicles” to deliver products in less than 30 minutes (Marr, 2017). Ultimately,

Marr culminates his findings into the argument that these advancements will save time and effort

and benefit society as a whole.

Finally, Medasani, Behringer, and Trivedi look into the future of driverless cars on a

closer timeframe in Self-Driving Cars (2017). The article made clear that the emphasis on

developing self-driving cars is prevalent everywhere, however, Asia and the United States are

likely to make the biggest contributions, and not too distant in the future (Medasani et. al, 2017).

Furthermore, the article discussed how “Level 2 systems” which are partially automation and

partially human controlled are already available from many companies (Medasani et. al, 2017).

Yet “Level 3 systems”, which are almost entirely automated, are still being developed for human

use (Medasani et. al, 2017). Overall, Medasani, Behringer, and Trivedi emphasize that human

concern over self-driving cars is unnecessary as these cars are being developed in a way that is

safe, and the benefits far outweigh any negatives.

Healthcare

As technology continues to advance in almost every facet of society, the healthcare field

is no exception. In fact, healthcare specifically is facing exponential growth, with new

discoveries being made constantly. Barbash and Glied explore the growing implementation of

surgery done by robot in New Technology and Health Care Costs - The Case of Robot-Assisted

Surgery (2010), as they discuss the pros and cons of this new development. Mainly focusing on

laparoscopic procedures and their increased success rate, Barbash and Glied found that these

procedures result in “short hospital stays” and “lower risks of infection”, however these

procedures come with a higher price tag (Barbash & Glied, 2010). However, the article goes on
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to explain how these extensive benefits for the patients actually makes the cost worth it, with

shorter hospital stays and less likelihood for follow-ups (Barbash & Glied, 2010). In Ovretveit,

Scott, Rundall, Shortell and Brommels’ article, the perhaps more conventional and less

controversial advancement of EMR systems being implemented in hospitals and practices is

investigated. Through findings of an experiment where these electronic medical records were

successfully implemented, the article found that 95% of the comments about the EMRs were

positive, and most people in the experiment found that they increased patient safety and saved

time (Ovretveit et. al, 2007). While EMRs are more comprehensible advancement, their success

demonstrates that technological innovation, even slight change, is moving in the right direction.

Artificial Intelligence

Perhaps one of the most controversial technological advancements is that of artificial

intelligence. In Artificial Intelligence (2011), various viewpoints are discussed on the topic of

artificial intelligence, and whether it is truly beneficial is contested. One of the main concepts

examined was the idea of “singularity”, exemplified by IBM’s Watson, and the notion that

technology and artificial “superintelligence” will increase and improve so much that human

society will change dramatically (“Artificial Intelligence”, 2011). Additionally, the article

discusses all the ways artificial intelligence can go beyond human capabilities, from “cancer” to

“climate change” (“Artificial Intelligence”, 2011). While some of the opposing opinions

expressed concerns over these increased abilities of AI, an abundance of information supported

that overall, these changes are beneficial to society. Additionally, in Keating and Nourbakhsh’s

Teaching Artificial Intelligence and Humanity (2018), Watson is further investigated. After

noting that “understanding cancer is beyond a human being’s ability” yet Watson demonstrates

the ability to possibly understand and learn it, the authors pose the question: “Why not use it?”
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(Keating & Nourbakhsh, 2018). Additionally, another topic explored was the contrast between

anxiety and ambition that this advancement causes, and how this ultimately “lock[s]” society, as

the sooner humans can embrace this change, the more obvious it will become that it is a positive

(Keating & Nourbakhsh, 2018). With a common concern amongst humans that robots will

replace them, this article dispels that, noting that robots will never have the distinct qualities that

humanize people.

Conclusion

Due to the nature of technology’s future remaining generally an unknown, relying on

predictions makes many people feel uneasy, as there is no one correct answer. However, experts

in this field have made it abundantly clear that in almost area of technological growth, the

change is a positive one. In the transportation field, the shift towards driverless cars has become

inevitable, now resulting in a debate over its practicality. Across almost all sources, the

expectation is that this change will be beneficial, in terms of safety, efficiency, and

environmentally. In the healthcare field, most experts agree that the higher success rate and

lower rate of infection associated by robotic procedures outweighs the higher prices associated

with these operations. Artificial intelligence, though still in the early stages for many projects, is

expected to possess abilities that will improve humanity on an exponential level. While doubts

will always exist as technology continues to progress, the overall consensus by most experts in

the field have determined that as a society, we are moving in the right direction.

Reference List

Artificial Intelligence: Will artificial intelligence ever become "superintelligent," bringing about
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a technological Singularity?" (2011). Issues & Controversies. Retrieved February 27,

2018, from http://icof.infobaselearning.com/recordurl.aspx?ID=2632.

Barbash, G. I., & Glied, S. A. (2010). New technology and health care costs - The case of

robot-assisted surgery. NEJM. Retrieved March 19, 2018, from http://www.nejm.org/

doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1006602

Cusumano, M. A., & Yoffie, D. B. (2016). Extrapolating from Moore’s Law. Communications

Of The ACM, 59(1), 33-35

Daily, M. Medasani, S. Behringer, R & Trivedi, M. (2017). Self-driving cars. Computer, 50(12):

18-23.

Herman, R., Ardekani, S. A., & Ausubel, J. H. (1990). Dematerialization. The Rockefeller

University. Retrieved February 26, 2018, from https://phe.rockefeller.edu/dematerial

ization/

Keating, J., & Nourbakhsh, I. (2018). Teaching artificial intelligence and humanity.

Communications Of The ACM, 61(2), 29.

Marr, B. (2017). The future of the transport industry - IoT, Big Data, AI and autonomous

vehicles. Forbes. Retrieved March 20, 2018, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernard

marr/2017/11/06/the-future-of-the-transport-industry-iot-big-data-ai-and-autonomous-

vehicles/#2d0c4a7a1137

Ovretveit, J., Scott, T., Rundall, T. G., Shortell, S. M., & Brommels, M. (2007). Improving

quality through effective implementation of information technology in healthcare.

International Journal for Quality in Health Care | Oxford Academic. Retrieved March

19, 2018, from https://academic.oup.com/intqhc/article/19/5/259/1799856