Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Do It This Way
David Miller
Department of Philosophy
University of Warwick
COVENTRY CV4 7AL UK
http://www.warwick.ac.uk/go/dwmiller
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 0-0
0 Confirmation is not partial deducibility
The probability p(c | a), often identified with the degree of be-
lief c(c | a) that c enjoys on a, may be substantial even when
a intuitively counts against c. The function p(c | a) measures
degree of deducibility, but it does not measure confirmation.
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 0-1
0 The aim of this talk
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 0-2
1 Elementary theory of probability
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 1-0
1 Popper’s axioms
A0 ∃c∃dp(a | c) ̸= p(b | d)
A1 ∀b(p(a | b) = p(c | b)) ⇒ p(b | a) = p(b | c)
A2 p(a | a) = p(c | c)
B1 p(ac | b) ≤ p(a | b)
B2 p(ac | b) = p(a | cb)p(c | b)
C p(a | a) ̸= p(b | a) ⇒
p(a | a) = p(c | a) + p(c′ | a).
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 1-1
1 Probabilistic definition of deducibility
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 1-2
1 A few words from W . E. Johnson’s Logic
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 1-3
2 Degrees of deducibility
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 2-0
2 Eight functions that grade deducibility
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 2-1
2 The eight functions ordered by magnitude
t xZZ
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Zx
s
a
x
Z
Z
Z
Z x
b
Z ZZ
Z
Z Z
Z Z
ZZ ZZ
Z Z
Zx Z
Z
Z
d Z
Zx q
c
x
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Z
Zx
r
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 2-2
2 The extremal functions r(c | a) and t(c | a)
Note that r(c | a) equals 0 for all a, c except those for which
ac′ ≡ ⊥. In other words, r(c | a) equals 1 if & only if c
is deducible from a, and equals 0 otherwise. It is a de-
generate case of a numerical measure of deducibility. The
function t is also unsatisfactory as a measure of deducibility.
Since relative measures are not definable in terms of abso-
lute measures, full deducibility itself is not definable from t.
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 2-3
3 The function q
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 3-0
3 Content
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 3-1
3 Approximate validity
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 3-2
3 Numerical comparison of c and q
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 3-3
3 Lower limits of c and q
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 3-4
3 Some properties of q
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 3-5
4 Hypothesis and evidence
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-0
4 q is not a measure of credence
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-1
4 Using q as a measure of confirmation
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-2
4 Degrees of truth
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-3
4 Classical versus Bayesian statistics
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-4
4 Anglo– American criminal law
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-5
4 When high credence may be a bad thing
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 4-6
5 Popper follows Waismann, and goes further
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 5-0
5 Misidentification of q and c
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 5-1
5 Misidentification of c and d
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 5-2
5 Misidentification of q and σ
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 5-3
6 A disclaimer
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 6-0
6 Falsificationism
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c D. W. Miller 2014 Please do not cite without permission. 6-1