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function of risk. This means that the more risk you take, the higher your potential
return should be to offset your increased chance for loss.
One tool that finance professionals use to calculate the return that an investment
should bring is the Capital Asset Pricing Model which we will refer to as CAPM for
this lesson. CAPM calculates a required return based on a risk measurement. To
do this, the model relies on a risk multiplier called the beta coefficient, which we
will discuss later in this lesson.
Like all financial models, the CAPM depends on certain assumptions. Originally
there were nine assumptions, although more recent work in financial theory has
relaxed these rules somewhat. The original assumptions were:
Obviously, some of these assumptions are not valid in the real world (most
notably no transaction costs or taxes), but CAPM still works well, and results can
be adjusted to overcome some of these assumptions.
The capital asset pricing model asserts that the investor should
be compensated in two ways: Time value of money and
the Risk. The time value of money means, the value of money
today worth more than the value of the same amount in the
future. Thus, an investor is compensated for employing a certain
sum of money in a particular investment over a period of time.
The Time Value of money is represented by “rf”i.e. A risk-free
rate in the formula of CAPM.
1. Investors are risk averse, i.e. they place funds in the less risky
investments.
2. All investors have the same expectations from the market and
are well informed.
3. No investor is big enough to influence the price of the securities.
4. The market is perfect: There are no taxes, no transaction costs,
securities are completely divisible, and the market is competitive.
5. Investors can borrow and lend unlimited amounts at a risk-free
rate (zero bonds).
CAPM states the price of a stock is tied to two variables: the time value of
money, and the risk of the stock itself. When we look at some of the
formulas used in the CAPM later, we'll see that the time value of money is
represented by the risk-free rate of interest or rf.
When measuring the risk of the stock itself, the capital asset pricing model
explains that risk in terms that are relative to the overall stock market risk.
Fortunately, this is exactly what a stock's beta measures.
To figure out the expected rate of return of a particular stock, the CAPM
formula only requires three variables:
So what exactly does the CAPM formula tell us? The formula states the
expected return of a stock is equal to the risk-free rate of interest, plus the
risk associated with all common stocks (market premium risk), adjusted for
the risk of the common stock being examined. In other words, the investor
can expect a rate of return on an asset that compensates them for both the
risk-free rate of interest, the stock market's risk, and the stock's individual
risk.
Calculating Expected Returns
Individuals interested in running through calculations using the CAPM
approach, can use our Capital Asset Pricing Model Calculator. That
calculator provides guidance on finding a stock's beta online, information
on the risk-free rate of interest, as well as the expected market return.
By using the above-mentioned information, the calculator can figure out the
expected stock market premium, in addition to the expected rate of return
for a capital asset (a share of common stock in this example).
CAPM versus Arbitrage Pricing Theory
With the advent of modern computers, and the complex relationships they
can examine, it is surprising there hasn't been more interest in
the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or APT. The approach was first outlined by
Stephen Ross in his publication The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset
Pricing, which appeared in the Journal of Economics in December 1976.
While the CAPM builds on the concept of investors constructing efficient
portfolios, the arbitrage pricing theory attempts to explain the expected
return on a stock in terms of other factors. APT differs from CAPM in that it
assumes that a stock's return depends on multiple factors, as explained by
the APT formula below:
Expected Return = rf + b1 x (factor 1) + b2 x (factor 2)... + bn x (factor n)
Where:
The APT is different than CAPM in that it doesn't attempt to identify each of
the factors for a given stock. For example, the price of oil might be one
factor that applies to ExxonMobil but not to Colgate Palmolive.
While the entire APT approach provides a great deal of analytical "leeway,"
it is this same lack of specificity that makes the CAPM approach easier to
understand and calculate
One of the most simple and highly revered model in finance, Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) is used to estimate the required rate of return on a risky asset.
Mathematical Representation:
It is given by a simple linear equation as:
where,
E(Ra) = expected rate of return on a risky asset.
β = beta
Equation states that expected rate of return on given risky asset E(Ra) is equal to
the sum of risk-free rate (RFR) and beta(β) adjusted market risk
premium ([E(Rm) – RFR]).
Before dissecting the different components of CAPM, let’s first plot this on graph.
Also note that when β = 1, then E(Ra) = E(Rm) and the portfolio is known as
market portfolio.
Assumptions of CAPM:
First component of CAPM is RFR i.e. risk free rate. It is, as the name
suggests, the return that you can earn risk free. Though no asses is risk free
but U.S. Treasury bills and bonds are generally used as a proxy for the risk
free rate. RFR to be used depends on the duration of risky asset under
consideration, using long term bonds for longer risky assets and so forth.
Second component is E(Rm) i.e. expected market return: It determines the
expected return of the market as a whole and can be based on past returns or
expected future returns. There are various ways to determine expected
market return.
E(Rm) – RFR is also known as market risk premium i.e. how much did
market as a whole return above the risk free rate.
β i.e. Beta : This is the most crucial of all the components and measures the
systematic risk of holding a risky asset.Basically risk can be divided into two
components: Unsystematic risk and systematic risk. Unsystematic risk also
known as idiosyncratic risk refers to risk associated with individual
assets.Ideally, we can reduce our unsystematic risk by holding a diversified
portfolio. However, systematic risk refers to the risk that is common to all
securities i.e. market risk. This cannot be reduced by holding a diversified
portfolio and hence investor must be paid for exposing himself/herself to this
risk. β measures this systematic risk and thus is considered while calculating
the expected return on the risky asset.
If β > 1, it implies that asset is riskier than the market as a whole and thus
E(Ra) > E(Rm)
If β < 1, it implies that asset is less risky than the market as a whole and thus
E(Ra) < E(Rm)
Application of CAPM:
As explained, CAPM is basically used to calculate the expected return on any risky
asset.
Fairly Valued:
If E(Ra) = R , then the asset is fairly valued
Overvalued:
If E(Ra) > R, then the asses is said to be overvalued.
Undervalued:
If E(R) < R, then the asset is said to be undervalued.
One of the main issues with CAPM, as is with any traditional model, is the
assumptions that investors are REM (Rational and Economic Men). Rarely
are the investors rational and rarely does CAPM map perfectly in the real
world.
It assumes that risk of an asset is solely dependent on beta (market risk). All
other factors are ignored.
Unsystematic risk is assumed to be compensated by holding a well-
diversified portfolio. Hardly this is the case.
Assumes there is no taxes, transaction or any other overhead cost. Nothing
comes for free.
Assumes that RFR exists. Remember we use treasury bills as proxy for RFR.
Nothing is risk-free in this world.
The capital asset pricing model is by no means a perfect theory. But the spirit of
CAPM is correct. It provides a usable measure of risk that helps investors
determine what return they deserve for putting their money at risk.
Where:
K i = the required return on asset i
R f = risk-free rate of return on a U.S. Treasury bill
β i = beta coefficient or index of non-diversifiable risk for asset i
k m = the return on the market portfolio of assets
Where:
E[R i ] is the expected return to asset i
R f is the risk free rate of return
β im is asset i 's market Beta
E [ R m — R f ] is the expected market risk premium
Graphically, the SML may be represented by the graph in Figure 1.
Investors measure asset risk by the variance of its return over future
periods. All other measures of risk are unimportant.
Investors always desire more return to less, and they are risk averse;
that is, they will avoid risk if all else is equal.
There are no restrictions on the borrowing and lending of money at
the risk-free rate of interest.
All possible investments are traded in the market and are available to
everyone, the assets are infinitely devisable, and there are no
restrictions on short selling.
The market is perfectly efficient. That is, every investor receives and
understands the same information, processes it accurately, and
trades without cost. There is no consideration of the effects of
taxation.
CAPM FORMULA
The linear relationship between the return required on an investment
(whether in stock market securities or in business operations) and its
systematic risk is represented by the CAPM formula, which is given in
the Paper F9 Formulae Sheet:
CAPM ASSUMPTIONS
The CAPM is often criticised as being unrealistic because of the
assumptions on which it is based, so it is important to be aware of
these assumptions and the reasons why they are criticised. The
assumptions are as follows (Watson D and Head A, 2007, Corporate
Finance: Principles and Practice, 4th edition, FT Prentice Hall, pp222–
3):
For example, real-world capital markets are clearly not perfect. Even
though it can be argued that well-developed stock markets do, in
practice, exhibit a high degree of efficiency, there is scope for stock
market securities to be priced incorrectly and, as a result, for their
returns not to plot on to the SML.
Finding a value for the ERP is more difficult. The return on a stock
market is the sum of the average capital gain and the average
dividend yield. In the short term, a stock market can provide a
negative rather than a positive return if the effect of falling share
prices outweighs the dividend yield. It is therefore usual to use a
long-term average value for the ERP, taken from empirical research,
but it has been found that the ERP is not stable over time. In the UK,
an ERP value of between 2% and 5% is currently seen as reasonable.
However, uncertainty about the exact ERP value introduces
uncertainty into the calculated value for the required return.
Beta values are now calculated and published regularly for all stock
exchange-listed companies. The problem here is that uncertainty
arises in the value of the expected return because the value of beta is
not constant, but changes over time.
Using the CAPM in investment appraisal
Problems can arise when using the CAPM to calculate a project-
specific discount rate. For example, one common difficulty is finding
suitable proxy betas, since proxy companies very rarely undertake
only one business activity. The proxy beta for a proposed investment
project must be disentangled from the company’s equity beta. One
way to do this is to treat the equity beta as an average of the betas of
several different areas of proxy company activity, weighted by the
relative share of the proxy company market value arising from each
activity. However, information about relative shares of proxy company
market value may be quite difficult to obtain.
CONCLUSION
Research has shown the CAPM to stand up well to criticism, although
attacks against it have been increasing in recent years. Until
something better presents itself, however, the CAPM remains a very
useful item in the financial management toolki