Russia’s'“New'Generation'Warfare”'

'
Implications'of'Ukraine'for'US'&'Allies!
!
Dr.!Phillip!A.!Karber!
1st!Special!Opera5ons!Command!
US!Army,!Ft.!Bragg!
1!May!2015!
 Russia’s'New$Generation$Warfare'
Briefings)and)Feedback)from)following:)
14#Feb.# #US#–#Ukrainian#Strategic#Conference#(Dnepropetrovsk)#
17#Feb.# #Conference#on#Poland#&#Ukraine#(Lodz)##
18#Feb.# #Latvian#Ministry#of#Defense#&#Foreign#Affairs#(Riga)#
19#Feb.# #BalKc#Defense#College#(Tartu)#
20#Feb.# #Lithuanian#Ministry#of#Defense#(Vilnius)#
23#Feb.# #Polish#PresidenKal#NaKonal#Security#Council#(Warsaw)#
23#Feb.# #Polish#Ministry#of#Foreign#Affairs#(Warsaw)#
25#Feb. #US#Marine#Corps#Conference#on#Hybrid'War'(Washington)#
8#Mar. #BalKc#Defense#AWaché#Working#Group#(Washington)#
9#Mar. #Center#for#Strategic#&#InternaKonal#Studies#(Washington)#
11#Mar. #Deputy#USAEUR#(Wiesbaden,#FRG)#
12#Mar. #US#Army#Europe#staff#(Wiesbaden,#FRG)#
16#Mar.# #AtlanKc#Council#Ukraine#Assessment#Team#(Kiev)#
19#Mar. #Polish#Parliament#(Warsaw)#
2#Apr.# #JCSaJ2#(Pentagon)#
16#Apr.# #OSD#&#Defense#AWachés#
17#Apr.# #Interview#with#Romanian'News'
22#Apr.# #Senate#Staff#
25#Apr. #InsKtute#of#World#PoliKcs#
27#Apr. #Johns#Hopkins#Applied#Physics#Lab#
29#Apr.# #Brief#for#Na2onal'Interest#
#
#
 CONTENTS'
• )Background)on)Potomac)Founda:on,)Work)with)Ukraine)&)
) )Feedback)from)Briefings)
• )Historical,)Cultural,)Economic,)Poli:cal)&)Strategic)Context*)
• )Russia’s)“New)Genera:on)Warfare”)Paradigm)
)LL )Poli:cal)Subversion*)
)LL )Proxy)Sanctuary*)
)LL )Russian)Deployment,)Organiza:on)&)Interven:on*)
)LL )Nuclear)Posturing)&)Coercion*)
)LL )Manipula:on)&)Exploita:on)of)Minsk)Ceasefires*)
• )Hybrid)Warfare)“Lessons)Learned”)in)Ukraine)
• )Implica:ons)for)US)&)NATO)
#
*#164#pages#of#material#excluded#for#email#version#
 The Potomac Foundation"
"

Mission&
&
“The$Potomac$Founda/on$is$a$non(profit,$non(par.san,$independent$and$
open(source$research$organiza.on$dedicated$to$improving$the$quality$of$
interna.onal$dialogue$and$na.onal$policy$formula.on,$supported$by$our$own$

&
endowment,$external$founda.on$grants$and$contribu.ons$from$others.”$

Why&Open&Source?&
• "Need"to"Inform"Congress"on"Security"Issues"
• "US"Military"value"Open"Source"research"
• "Need"to"share"analysis"with"Allies"
• "Need"to"inform"serious"Press"
• "Need"to"train"Next"GeneraBon"and"Develop"New"Methods:"
" "EE"Machine"TranslaBons,"Overhead"Imagery"&"Conflict"SimulaBon ""
"
Potomac&Support&of&NATO&Enlargement&
between&1992*2008&over&1,000&mee2ngs&
Hungary"1997" Lithuania"2003"

Poland"1998" Georgia"2004"
 Why$So$Many$Visits$to$the$Front?$
Recent&Observa-ons&

• &Understand&how&Russian&theory&of&“New&Genera-on&Warfare”&is&being&
implemented&in&prac-ce&–&including&both&their&strengths&&&weaknesses:&
EE&Russian&have&weird&way&of&structuring&&&manning&composite&BaGalion&Tac-cal&Groups&(BTG)&&&
ongoing&organiza-on&of&Donbas&Front&and&introduc-on&of&new&Corps&Commands.&
• &Evaluate&Ukrainian&military&needs&rela-ve&to&requests&for&assistance:&
EE&NO&CHANGE&–&desperately&need&tandem&warhead&ATGM&(Javelin/TOW&II)&to&stop&Russian&reac-veE
armored&Tanks&(even&a&few&could&save&the&Ceasefire);&only&20%&of&needed&Harris&Digital&Com;&no&
longErange&counterEbaGery&radar&(ANTPQE36/37);&no&highEal-tude&UAV&for&strategic/opera-onal&
warning;&only&25%&of&needed&upEarmored&HUMVEE&for&rapid&reac-on&Covering&Force.&
• &Observe&effec-veness&of&Ceasefire:&
EE&Minsk&II&is&a&disaster&–&OSCE&can’t&do&the&job,&NO&provision&for&ENFORCEMENT&of&growing&
viola-ons,&and&UKE&Army&hurt&by&50km&withdrawal&of&Ar-llery&–&an&invita-on&to&invasion.&
• &Assess&current&&&future&combat&capability&of&the&Ukrainian&Army:&
EEThey&have&at&most&30&days&of&defense&against&highEintensity&offensive;&compromised&by&
irreplaceable&losses&(Tanks&and&Ar-llery,&shortage&of&ammo,&no&air&force,&and&low&reliability&of&old&
stocks)&as&well&as&impact&of&Minsk&II.&Excellent&frontEline&Brigade&Commanders,&General&Staff&
problema-c,&troop&morale&recovered&aker&Debal’tseve&but&now&waning&due&to&NO&WESERN&HELP.&
• &With&Administra-on&Ban&on&US&Military&visits&to&Front:&
EE&US&Military&is&seriously&disadvantaged&in&understanding&what&is&going&on&Ukraine&side&and&missing&
important&details&of&Russian&implementa-on&of&‘New&Genera-on&Warfare.”&&
&& & &Headed&back&in&two&weeks&–&someone’s&got&to&do&it.&
 Russia’s'Strategy'of'
'
New$Generation$Warfare!
!
 RUSSIAN'view'of'New$Generation$Warfare'
'
General'Valery'Gerasimov,'Chief'of'the'General'Staff,'Russian'Federa:on'

In#the#21st#century#we#have#seen#a#tendency#toward#blurring#the#lines#between#the#states#of#war#
and#peace.#Wars#are#no#longer#declared#and,#having#begun,#proceed#according#to#an#unfamiliar#
template.#
The$experience$of$military$conflicts$…$confirm$that$a#perfectly#thriving#state#can,#in#a#ma=er#of#
months#and#even#days,#be#transformed#into#an#arena#of#fierce#armed#conflict,#become#a#vic@m#of#
foreign#interven@on,#and#sink#into#a#web#of#chaos,#humanitarian#catastrophe,#and#civil#war….$
In$terms$of$the$scale$of$the$casual9es$and$destruc9on$;;$the$catastrophic$social,$economic,$and$poli9cal$
consequences$;;$such$new;type$conflicts$are$comparable$with$the$consequences$of$any$real$war.$
The$very$"rules$of$war"$have$changed.$The$role$of$non;military$means$of$achieving$poli9cal$and$
strategic$goals$has$grown,$and,$in$many$cases,$they$have$exceeded$the$power$of$force$of$weapons$in$
their$effec9veness.$
The$focus$of$applied$methods$of$conflict$has$altered$in$the$direc9on$of$the$broad#use#of#poli@cal,#
economic,#informa@onal,#humanitarian,#and#other#nonBmilitary#measures#BB#applied#in#coordina@on#
with#the#protest#poten@al#of#the#popula@on.#
All#this#is#supplemented#by#military#means#of#a#concealed#character,#including#carrying#out#ac@ons#
of#informa@onal#conflict#and#the#ac@ons#of#special#opera@ons#forces.$The$open$use$of$forces$;;$oDen$
under$the$guise$of$peacekeeping$and$crisis$regula9on$;;$is$resorted$to$only$at$a$certain$stage,$primarily$
for$the$achievement$of$final$success$in$the$conflict.$

General'Valery'Gerasimov,'Chief'of'General'Staff,'Russian'Federa:on,'“The'Value'of'Science'in'Foresight:'New'Challenges'Require'Rethinking'on'
the'Forms'and'Methods'of'Warfare,”'given'as'a'lecture'at'a'closed'Voroshilov'General'Staff'Academy'conference,'and'reprinted'in'MilitaryI
Industrial'Kurier,'(27'Feb.'2013),'at''<'hVp://vpkInews.ru/sites/default/files/pdf/VPK_08_476.pdf'>.'
RUSSIAN'view'of'Hybrid'War'–'General'Gerasimov'con:nued'

These$days,$together$with$tradi9onal$devices,$nonstandard$ones$are$being$developed.$The#role#of#
mobile,#mixedBtype#groups#of#forces,#ac@ng#in#a#single#intelligenceBinforma@on#space#because#of#
the#use#of#the#new#possibili@es#of#commandBandBcontrol#systems#has#been#strengthened.#Military#
ac@ons#are#becoming#more#dynamic,#ac@ve,#and#fruiGul.#Tac@cal#and#opera@onal#pauses#that#the#
enemy#could#exploit#are#disappearing.#New$informa9on$technologies$have$enabled$significant$
reduc9ons$in$the$spa9al,$temporal,$and$informa9onal$gaps$between$forces$and$control$organs.$
Frontal$engagements$of$large$forma9ons$of$forces$at$the$strategic$and$opera9onal$level$are$gradually$
becoming$a$thing$of$the$past.$Long;distance,$contactless$ac9ons$against$the$enemy$are$becoming$the$
main$means$of$achieving$combat$and$opera9onal$goals.$
The#defeat#of#the#enemy's#objects#is#conducted#throughout#the#en@re#depth#of#his#territory.#The#
differences#between#strategic,#opera@onal,#and#tac@cal#levels,#as#well#as#between#offensive#and#
defensive#opera@ons,#are#being#erased.#The#applica@on#of#highBprecision#weaponry#is#taking#on#a#
mass#character.#Weapons$based$on$new$physical$principals$and$automa9zed$systems$are$being$
ac9vely$incorporated$into$military$ac9vity.$
Asymmetrical#ac@ons#have#come#into#widespread#use,#enabling#the#nullifica@on#of#an#enemy's#
advantages#in#armed#conflict.#Among#such#ac@ons#are#the#use#of#special#opera@ons#forces#and#
internal#opposi@on#to#create#a#permanently#opera@ng#front#through#the#en@re#territory#of#the#
enemy#state,#as#well#as#informa@onal#ac@ons,#devices,#and#means#that#are#constantly#being#
perfected#….#
Another$factor$influencing$the$essence$of$modern$means$of$armed$conflict$is$the#use#of#modern#
automated#complexes#of#military#equipment$and$research$in$the$area$of$ar9ficial$intelligence.$While$
today$we$have$flying$drones,$tomorrow's$baMlefields$will$be$filled$with$walking,$crawling,$jumping,$
and$flying$robots.$In$the$near$future$it$is$possible$a$fully$robo9zed$unit$will$be$created,$capable$of$
independently$conduc9ng$military$opera9ons.$
'
Russian'“New'Generation'Warfare”'
 Nature'&'Content'of'New'Generation'of'War''
9"Elements"of"Hybrid"Combat"

Col.%S.%Chikina%&%A.%Bodganov,%“The%Nature%and%Content%of%the%New%Genera=on%of%War,”%Voyenna'mysl’,"[Military%Thought%in%English%
Transla=on],%No.4,%(Oct.%2013)%at%<%hOp://www.eastviewpress.com/Files/MT_FROM%20THE%20CURRENT%20ISSUE_No.4_2013.pdf%
>.%%
Lessons(Learned(
 Implications'of'Russian'
'
New$Generation$Warfare!
for!
US!Strategy!&!European!Allies!
Ukraine,'NATO'&'Central;Eastern'Europe'
Russian!perfidy!and!posturing!have!destabilized!Eastern!Europe!
• "Black"Sea"region"–"Romania"&"Moldova"fearing"Transnistria"move"
• "South<Eastern"region"–"Hungary,"Czech,"Bulgaria,"Greece"looking"for"
accommodaDon"with"Russia,"Turkey"increasingly"isolated"(radicalized)"
• "BalDc"Sea"region""
" "<<"Estonia,"Latvia,"Lithuania"and"Poland"feel"threatened"
" "<<"Finland"&"Sweden"looking"for"closer"alliance""
" "<<"Norway"&"Denmark"targeted"by"Russian"bullying"
• "Central"region"
" "<<"Militarily"weak:"
" """""<""German,"NATO"&"US"forces"a"quarter"of"their"former"strength"
" "<<"PoliDcally"naïve"&"counter<producDve:"
" """""<""Merkel"<<"“Phone"call”"obsequiousness"courDng"PuDn"
" """""<""Merkel<Obama"<<"“No"military"opDons”"when"Russians"exercising"them"
" """""<""Merkel<Hollande"–"dangerous"&"destabilizing"Minsk"II"Ceasefire"
" """""<""German"pressure"to"replace"SACEUR"
" """""<""Absence"of"US"leadership"contributes"to"NATO"division"&"lack"of"vision"
NATO’s!fractured!Poli6cal!Response!may!destroy!the!Alliance!
 Decline'of'NATO’s'Central'European'Military'Strength!

Brigades!!!!!!!!!!1990!=!84!!!!!!!2015!=!21!
40"

30"

20"

10"

FRG"Bundeswehr"" BE,"CA,"FR,"NE,"UK"" US"Army"Europe"

 “Russia%Targets%NATO%With%Military%Exercises”'

STRATFOR#MAP#
March#2015#
 Hybrid'Military'Options'produce'Diplomatic'Coercion''

When'asked'recently'about'the'possibility'
of' “SWIFT”' sancGons,' which' would' bar'
Russia' from' the' internaGonal' payment'
system,'Prime'Minister'Medvedev'warned'
that' Moscow’s' response' would' be'
“without'limits.”'

DMITRY'MEDVEDEV'
PRIME'MINISTER,'RUSSIAN'FEDERATION'

“I' don’t' think' the' Danes' fully' understand' the'

consequences'of'what'will'happen'if'Denmark'
joins'the'AmericanSled'missile'defence.' 'If'this'
happens,'Danish'war'ships'will'become'targets'
for'Russian'atomic'missiles.''…I'want'to'simply'
remind' you' that' it' will' cost' you' both' money'
MIKHAIL'VANIN'
and'security.”'''
RUSSIAN'AMBASSADOR'TO'DENMARK' Jyllands(Posten,"March"2015"
 Baltic'“Close%Encounters”%

Sept(2014(
Estonian(security(
officer(seized(by(
Russian(agents(
Feb(2015(Russian(
exercise(drops(1,500(
paratroops(near(
Latvian(border(

Modified(by(TPF(1(May(2015(
Russian'”New%Generation%Warfare”%//%the'Virus'Spreads'
Subversion( Proxies( Deployment( Nuke(Threat( NegoIate(

Ukraine( √ ( ( (√ ( ( (√ ( ( (√ ( ( (√(
Transnistria( √ ( ( (√ ( ( (√ ( ( ( ( ((
Moldova( √ ( ( (√ ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (√(
Romania( √(
Hungary( √(
Czech( √(
Poland( ( ( ( ( ( (√ ( ( (√(
Lithuania( ( ( ( ( ( (√(
Latvia( √ ( ( (√ ( ( (√(
Estonia( √ ( ( ( ( ( (√(
Belarus( √ ( ( ((√ ( ( (√(
Finland( √ ( ( ( ( ( (√(
Norway( ( ( ( ( ( (√(
Denmark( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (√(
Germany( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (√(
France( √ ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ((√(
UK( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ((√(
US( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (√ ( ( ((√(
Putin’s$$aim$to$“Protect”$Russians$could$Destabilize$EurAAsia$
for$Decades$$AA$if$he$is$not$stopped$in$Ukraine$…$Where?$
Which%Option%Makes%Europe%Safer?%
 What'is'Needed?'
Recogni6on!of!Russian!Hybrid!Strategy!–!strengths!&!weaknesses!
• "Strong"on"subversion"and"poliDcal"warfare"–"East"Europe"needs"countermeasures"
• "Limited"convenDonal"strength"–"won’t"succeed"if"defense"has"modern"weapons"
• "Dangerous"Nuclear"Doctrine"<<"only"credible"without"NATO"nuke"modernizaDon"
Leadership!in!NATO!
• "Can’t"meet"Hybrid"Threat"with"group<grope"&"lowest"common"denominator"
• "No"subsDtute"for"American"Leadership"&"Vision"
• "Don’t"let"French"and"Germans"undercut"SACEUR"
Priori6es"
• "Don’t"let"PuDn"win"in"Ukraine"–"provide"reciprocal"response"–"send"Javelin"for"
every"tank"he"introduces"in"Donbas,"armored"HUMVE"for"every"APC,"ANTPQ<36""
for"every"Arty"Bde,"high<alDtude"surveillance"drone"for"every"AD"Bn"
• "Poland"is"the"new"Center"of"Gravity"for"NATO"–"needs"US"POMCUS"Corps,"US"
A<10s"&"Rapid"Reactor"Tac"Air""on"sheltered"dispersal"bases"
• "Create"an"AWACS<Patriot"Belt"from"BalDcs,"Poland,"W.Ukraine,"Romania"
• "Build"BalDc"Alliance"with"Balts,"Fins,"Swedes,"Norse,"Danes"&"Poles"
• "Standardize"and"Modernize"East"Europeans"with"US"excess"armor,"anD<tank,"
arDllery,"air"defense,"ISR"drones/naval"sensors,"and"aircrah"
• "AcDvely"engage"and"poliDcally"support"pro<Western"democraDc"parDes"in"
Central<Southern"Europe"(Hung,"Czech,"Slovak,"Bul,"Rom,"and"Moldova)"