Konsep Dasar Transformasi

Perekonomian
Asdos: Agung Romy Hasiholan
Outline
• Model Harrod-Domar
• Model Dua Sektor
• Model Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Solow
• Aplikasi ICOR untuk perekonomian Indonesia
• Pengantar Transformasi Struktural
Classic Theories of Economic Development
• The classic theories on economic development have been dominated
by four major competing strands of thoughts:
1. The linear-stages-of-growth model
2. Theories and patterns of structural change
3. The international-dependence revolution
4. The Neoclassical, free market counterrevolution

Rostow’s Stages The Lewis Theory

of Growth of Development
Linear-Stages The Structural
Theories Change Theory
The Harrod- Chenery Sirquin
Domar Growth Structural
Model Transformation
Rostow’s Stages of Growth
High Mass
Consumption
Drive to Maturity • People have
• New ideas and more wealth and
Take-Off technology so buy services
improve and and goods
• Introduction and (consumer
Pre-Conditions for rapid growth replace older
industries, society), welfare
Take-Off (industrial systems are fully
revolution) of economic growth
The Traditional • Building spreads developed, trade
Society infrastructure manufacturing expands
industries, better throughout the
• Based on that is needed country
before infrastructure,
subsistence, financial
farming, fishing, development can
take place, e.g., investment, and
forestry, and cultural change
some mining transport
network, money
from farming,
power supplies,
communications
The Harrod-Domar Growth Model
Model ini mengandalkan mobilisasi tabungan untuk investasi baik dari domestik maupun dari luar
negeri (Panennungi, 2017)
1. Net saving (S) is some proportion, s, of national income (Y)
𝑆 = 𝑠𝑌
2. Net investment (I) is defined as the change in capital stock, ∆𝐾
𝐼 = ∆𝐾
But because K bears a direct relationship to total national income or output as expressed by the
capital-output ratio, c, it follows that
𝑐 = 𝐾 𝑌 (COR) or 𝑐 = ∆𝐾 ∆𝑌 (ICOR), ∆𝐾 = 𝑐∆𝑌
3. Finally, S must equal I
𝑆=𝐼
𝑠𝑌 = ∆𝐾
𝑠𝑌 = 𝑐∆𝑌
∆𝑌 𝑠
=
𝑌 𝑐
 The Lewis Theory of Economic Development
The process of transforming an economy in such a way that the contribution to national
Structural
income by the manufacturing sector eventually surpasses the contribution by the
Transformation
agricultural sector

A theory of development in which surplus labor from the traditional agricultural sector is
Lewis Two-Sector Model transferred to the modern industrial sector, the growth of which absorbs the surplus labor,
promotes industrialization, and stimulates sustained development

The excess supply of labor over and above the quantity demanded at the going free-
market wage rate. In the Lewis two-sector model of economic development, surplus labor
Surplus Labor
refers to the portion of the rural labor force whose marginal productivity is zero or
negative
Solow Growth Model
• Beberapa asumsi penting:
a. Fungsi produksi bersifat constant return to scale
b. Model ini memakai asumsi the law of diminishing return
• Production Function: 𝑌 = 𝑓(𝐾, 𝐴𝐿)
• Depreciation: 𝛿 + 𝑛 + 𝑔 𝐾
• The Dynamics of k
𝑘𝑡 = 𝑠𝑓 𝑘 𝑡 − 𝑛+𝑔+𝛿 𝑘 𝑡
When 𝑘𝑡 = 0
𝑠𝑓 𝑘 𝑡 = 𝑛+𝑔+𝛿 𝑘 𝑡
 Aplikasi Penggunaan Konsep ICOR
Indonesia
Year Gross capital formation (constant 2010 US$) GDP (constant 2010 US$) Gross savings (% of GDP) Gross domestic savings (% of GDP)
2008 157,895,729,373 679,403,088,245 19 27
2009 264,300,670,190 710,851,782,010 23 32
2010 248,275,877,015 755,094,160,363 33 35

267,816,324,848 801,681,840,622 33 36
2011

297,225,864,463 850,023,661,688 32 35
2012
2013 305,687,144,702 897,261,717,987 31 33

322,982,777,610 942,184,637,117 31 34
2014

332,692,484,645 988,127,958,653 32 35
2015
2016 349,973,860,528 1,037,688,093,482 32 35

Sumber: World Development Indicator

 Aplikasi Penggunaan Konsep ICOR untuk
Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2011-2016

Note: Isi Kolom Nilai

Indikator Nilai Keterangan
Jumlah PMTDB 2010 - 2015 Harga Konstan Tahun 2010 (US$)
PDB 2016 dikurang PDB 2011 Harga Konstan Tahun 2010 (US$)
ICOR 2011-2016
Asumsi tabungan domestik
35 Tanpa aliran tabungan dari luar negeri
(s0 dalam persentase PDB)
Pertumbuhan alamiah
Seluruh tabungan diinvestasikan
(g0 = s0/ICOR)
Asumsi target pertumbuhan 2017 (dalam %) 7 Target lebih tinggi dari kemampuan
Tabungan domestik yang dibutuhkan
Asumsi ICOR tidak berubah
(s1=g1*ICOR)
Investasi yang dibutuhkan
(I=S=s1*PDB)

Kesenjangan kebutuhan investasi % (s1-s0) Biasanya FDI, Utang Luar Negeri, dsb

Menutupi kesenjangan tahun 2017

Harga Konstan Tahun 2010 (US$)
=(s1-s0)*PDB
Transformasi Struktural
• Todaro (2000)
“The process of transforming an economy in such a way that the contribution to
national income by the manufacturing sector eventually surpasses the
contribution by the agricultural sector”
• Perubahan dalam output dan employment dari sektor pertanian ke sektor non-
pertanian
Pendapatan Per Perubahan pada
Kapita Naik Struktur Ekonomi

Chenery Sirquin Structural

Lewis Two Sector Model
Transformation
• Teori yang menjelaskan • Melengkapi teori Lewis dengan
perpindahan tenaga kerja dari data sehingga dapat dibuktikan
sektor tradisional yang didominasi secara empiris
pertanian ke sektor industri yang
didominasi manufaktur
Proses Transformasi Struktural
Proses pemanfaatan sumber daya untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi suatu
Proses Akumulasi
negara

Proses alokasi sumber daya ke berbagai kegiatan ekonomi seiring dengan

Proses Alokasi
peningkatan pendapata per kapita

Proses perkembangan kependudukan yang terjadi seiring dengan meningkatnya

Proses Demografi
pendapatan per kapita

Proses pemerataan pendapatan yang terjadi seiring dengan meningkatknya

Proses Distribusi
pendapatan per kapita