"CROATIA'S CREATIA 2010." "KREACIJA KROACIJE 2010.

"

Scenario planning project Projekt izrade scenarija - Hrvatska 2010

Report for the workshop in Cavtat, 6-8 June 2002, English Izvještaj za radionicu u Cavtatu, 6-8 lipnja 2002
version, Zagreb, May 2002

FOUNDATION 2020 ZAKLADA 2020

In mid-1999, with the mediation of Graham Barnes, a
psychologist, cybernetician and consultant, Petar Turkoviæ
was invited to the workshop of the Taellberg foundation at
the beautiful lake of Siljan in Sweden. The Taellberg
foundation and its activities are organized and for 22 years
conducted by Bo Ekman a former director at Volvo and at
present consultant, researcher and the man who connects
ideas and resources the world over by way of his company
Nextwork and the Taelberg Foundation.
Sredinom 1999. godine, posredstvom Grahama Barnesa,
psihologa, kibernetièara i svjetski poznatog konzultanta,
Petar Turkoviæ je pozvan na radionicu Taellberške Zaklade u
mjestu Taellberg na prekrasnom jezeru Siljan u Švedskoj.
Taellberšku zakladu i njene aktivnosti organizira i vodi veæ 22
godine Bo Ekman, nekadašnji direktor Volvo-a, a danas
konzultant, intelektualac i èovjek koji diljem svijeta povezuje
ideje i resurse kroz svoju tvrtku Nextwork i Taelberšku
Zakladu.

After visiting Taellberg, the idea of forming a similar "think
tank" in Croatia arose. The idea was revitalized at the end of
1999 and in spring 2000 the first international workshop was
held, with the title Globalization and New Identity. The
main ideas that appeared during the workshop were
formulated in the "Plitvice Declaration of Foundation
2020". The organizer of the workshop was the Foundation
2020 which was formed subsequently.
Nakon posjeta Taellbergu raða se ideja formiranja sliènog
"think tanka" u Hrvatskoj. Ideja je oživjela krajem 1999, a veæ
u proljeæe 2000. održava se prva meðunarodna radionica na
Plitvicama pod nazivom
Globalizacija i Novi Identitet. Osnovne ideje koje su se
pojavile tijekom radionice formulirane su u "Plitvièkoj
deklaraciji Zaklade 2020". Organizator radionice bila je,
tada osnovana Zaklada 2020.

Foundation 2020 is an expression of the desire of its founders
to contribute to the development of Croatia as a democratic
and modern European country during the next 20 years. The
Foundation 2020 members share the opinion that people are
the ones who enable the changes. That is why one of its most
important tasks
Zaklada 2020 izraz je želje njezinih osnivaèa da doprinesu
razvoju Hrvatske kao demokratske i moderne Europske
zemlje tijekom slijedeæih dvadeset godina. Zaklada 2020.
smatra da su ljudi ti koji omoguæuju promjene. Zato je jedna
od najvažnijih njenih zadaæa kreirati uvjete u kojima æe ljudski
resursi biti

o
is to create osloboðeni i

E
conditions in razvijani.
which human U Taellbergu i
resources na Plitvicama
would be freed bilo je prisutno
and developed. n e k o l i k o
svjetskih

croatia
E
I n Ta e l l b e r g struènjaka za
and on Plitvice metodologiju
workshops, s c e n a r i o
there were planninga i
several world organizacijsko
experts for the 2010 uèenje. Tada se
methodology of raða ideja o
s c e n a r i o pokretanju
planning and organizational learning. This gave rise to the nacionalnog projekta scenarija za Hrvatsku 2010.
idea of initiating a national project for producing scenarios of S tim ciljem organizirana je druga meðunarodna radionica u
Croatian future. Opatiji 2001. pod nazivom Slike iz Hrvatske 2010. Cilj joj je
With that purpose, the second international workshop in bio ispitati spremnost okružja, pojedinaca, kompanija i
Opatija was organized in 2001, titled Images of Croatia 2010. institucija za pokretanje takvog projekta u Hrvatskoj.

1
The main intention was to test the readiness of the ŠTO SU SCENARIJI?
environment, individuals, companies and institutions for
initiating scenario project in Croatia.
Scenariji se kao metoda pripreme za izazove buduænosti
pojavljuju nakon drugog svjetskog rata kao jedan od
WHAT ARE THE SCENARIOS? postupaka planiranja u amerièkoj vojsci. Ranih sedamdesetih
godina, Pierre Wack iz tvrtke Royal Dutch Shell razvio je
Scenarios appeared after the Second World War as a method metodu izrade scenarija za tvrtke. Od osamdesetih godina pa
of planning in the American army. In the early seventies, sve do današnjeg dana, mnoge su meðunarodne korporacije
Pierre Wack of Royal Dutch Shell developed a method of ili državne administracije u svoje institute za planiranje i
producing scenarios for the company. From the eighties to razvoj ukljuèile metodu izrade scenarija kao neophodan
the present, many large international corporations and korak pri izradi strategija operativnog djelovanja.
countries have included the method of scenario planning in Od nacionalnih scenarija razvoja naèinjenih u devedesetim
their strategic planning and development institutes as a godinama dvadesetoga stoljeæa spomenut æemo ovdje
necessary step and platform for producing operational nekoliko. To su: The Mont Fleur Scenarios, Južnoafrièka
development strategies and activities. republika, 1992., The Future of Northern Ireland, Sjeverna
Out of many national scenarios of development produced in Irska, 1996., Scenarios for Cyprus, Cipar, 1996., The Future of
the nineties, we shall mention several here. Mexico, Meksiko, 1997., Destino Columbia, Kolumbija, 1996.,
They are: The Mont Fleur Scenarios (South Africa 1992), Canadian scenarios, Kanada, 1998., Scenarios on the Future
Sweden 2001 (1995), What if. Scenarios for Finland (1996), of Japan, Japan, 1998., Sweden 2010, Švedska 1996.
Future of Northern Ireland (1996), Scenarios for Cyprus
(1996), Future of Mexico (1997), Destino Colombia (1998),
Canadian Scenarios (1998), Scenarios for the Future of Japan Svi navedeni scenariji bili su izraz istih težnji njihovih autora.
(1998), Visíon Guatemala (1999), Scenarios for Indonesia, Oni su se pokušali aktivno ukljuèiti u odreðivanje buduænosti
Kenya Scenarios (2001). svojih zemalja na naèin koji æe potaknuti i najširu javnost i
ukljuèiti sve društvene aktere koji na tu buduænost mogu
All the mentioned scenarios were an expression of the same djelovati.
type of aspirations of their authors. These were the attempts
to become actively involved in determining the future of their
countries in a way that would attract the widest public and METODOLOGIJA IZRADE SCENARIJA
involve all social actors who can affect this future.
Razmišljajuæi o scenarijima buduænosti, veoma je važno
razumjeti da ovdje govorimo o veæem broju scenarija, a ne o
SCENARIO METHODOLOGY AS A LEARNING jednom zadanom stanju kojega želimo dostiæi. To znaèi da se
PROCESS rezultat sastoji od
Understanding environments nekoliko moguæih
When considering the
Where we need to start stanja na kraju
scenarios of the
prognoziranog
future, it is very Outside - in Inside - out
razdoblja koji
important to Learning Acting
p o k u š a v a m o
understand that we CONTEXTUAL
objasniti. Poneki se
are speaking of a ENVIRONMENT
puta govori o
number of scenarios LOCAL najboljem, srednjem i
of the future, and not ENVIRONMENT
najgorem scenariju.
of one given state CROATIAN U n a j b o l j e m
that we wish to attain. ENVIRONMENT scenariju, svi su
That means that the
ME pozitivni faktori
result consists of
optimizirani. On
several possible
pokazuje maksimalni
states at the end of a forecast period that we wish to explain.
potencijal ako su svi interni postupci najbolje izvedeni, a
Sometimes, we speak about the best, average and worst case
okoliš se ponaša toèno onako kako smo predvidjeli. U
scenario. In the best scenario, all the positive factors are
najgorem scenariju, predviða se nekoliko moguæih negativnih
optimized. It shows the maximum potential if all internal
dogaðaja za sustav. Jednako je važno valjano procijeniti sve
procedures are implemented in the best manner, and the
moguæe scenarije i stvoriti preliminarne planove za sluèaj

2
environment behaves exactly like we have predicted. In the
worst case scenario, several possible negative events for the
system are predicted. It is equally important to give a valid
appraisal of all possible scenarios and to create preliminary
plans in case of each possible outcome. In reality, the plan
that best fits the events in real life gets activated.
The methodology of producing scenarios describes work on
scenarios as a context for the learning process. Participants
are stimulated to constantly reevaluate their thinking. At the
same time, they have to allow for other thinking to affect their
thought models. This creates a dynamic of creative work. For
many participants, this is even more important than the
scenarios that are
a r r i v e d a t
themselves. When The logic of the
you look at the future scenario methodology
as a process of
involving as many
input factors as
possible, you create a
favorable conditions Diverging Exploring Converging
for the learning
process to take place,
and that process is
what creates new
knowledge.
The aim of the process
The project "Croatia's Creatia 2010" pertains to the process
of creating scenarios for the future of Croatia. Producing
scenarios is, by definition, based on "scientific
presumptions". It enables arriving at strategic decisions that
can efficiently cope with the greatest number of possible
futures.
In that regard, the description of the aim to produce
scenarios for Croatia 2010 could be formulated as: creating a
new basis for thinking about the common future and
recognizing the possibilities and alternatives for the future of
Croatia.
Participants and organization of the process
In the fall of 2001 the Foundation 2020 appointed some forty
experts and professionals from various sectors of the society
(economy, finance, tourism, health, social welfare, art, new
technologies, media etc.) who formed the core team for
producing the scenario "Croatia's Creatia 2010". The Swedish
company Nextwork was selected, i.e. its consultants Dag
Noren and Kristina Herngren were engaged as the project
3
svakoga od moguæih ishoda. U stvarnosti, aktivira se onaj
plan koji najbolje odgovara dogaðajima u stvarnom životu.
Metodologija izrade scenarija opisuje rad na scenarijima kao
kontekst za proces uèenja. Uèesnici se stimuliraju da stalno
preispituju svoja razmišljanja. Istovremeno, oni moraju dati
prostora drugim razmišljanjima da utjeèu na njihove misaone
modele. Time se stvara dinamika kreativnoga rada. Za mnoge
uèesnike to je i važnije od samih uspostavljenih scenarija.
Kad gledate na buduænost kao na postupak ukljuèivanja što je
moguæe više ulaznih faktora, stvarate povoljne uvjete za
proces uèenja, a taj proces je ono što stvara nova znanja.
Cilj procesa izrade scenarija
Projekt "Kreacija Kroacije 2010." odnosi se na proces
stvaranja scenarija za buduænost Hrvatske. Izrada scenarija
je, po definiciji, zasnovana na "znanstvenom nagaðanju".
Ona omoguæuje donošenje strateških odluka koje se mogu
efikasno nositi s najveæim moguæim brojem - moguæih
buduænosti.
U tom smislu najkraæi opis cilja izrade scenarija Hrvatske
2010. možemo formulirati kao prepoznavanje moguænosti i
alternativa za buduænost Hrvatske.
Uèesnici i organizacija procesa
U jesen 2001. Zaklada 2020. imenovala je èetrdesetak
struènjaka i profesionalaca iz razlièitih sektora društva
(gospodarstvo, financije, turizam, zdravstvo, socijalna skrb,
novinarstvo, umjetnost, nove tehnologije itd.) koji su èinili
osnovnu radnu grupu za izradu scenarija "Kreacija Kroacije
2010.". Za struènu pomoæ izabrana je švedska tvrtka
Nextwork odnosno njeni konzultanti Dag Noren i Kristina
Herngren. Osim osnovne radne grupe i konzultanata, u
projektu su takoðer sudjelovali Bo Ekman (Nextwork,
facilitators. Besides the core team and the consultants, the
participants of the project also were Bo Ekman (Nextwork,
Sweden), Graham Barnes (Inform AB, USA/Sweden) and Ged
Davis (Shell, Great Britain) as consultants-advisors.
A reference team was also assembled, which consisted of:
Miroslav Radman (Necker institut Paris), Vlatko Silobrèiæ
(HAZU), Leo Budin (Faculty of Electrical Engineering and
Computing), Krešimir Paveliæ (Institute Ruðer Boškoviæ),
Željko Èoviæ (Pliva), Neven Mimica (Government of the
Republic of Croatia, Ministry of European Integrations) and
Mrs. Željka Antunoviæ (vice-president of the Government of
the Republic of Croatia).
A significant characteristic of this scenario planning process is
the parallel one in which participated the students od Zagreb
School of Business and Economics. The process was
facilitated by Sergej Buliæ and Vera Matejèiæ with organisation
help of Dubravka Frajliæ.
The project took place from September 2001 until May 2002
progressing through four main workshops (Split, Begovo
Razdolje, Plitvièka jezera and Brioni) as well a several interim
workshops, a succession of small group meetings, individual
works and consultations with the members of the reference
group.
The result of the work of the core team is the production of
three scenarios of Croatia in the year 2010, which are
presented at the third international conference of the
Foundation at city of Cavtat in June 2002. The processes of
creating the scenarios as well as the very scenarios are
presented in a digested form in this publication.
To illustrate the methodology applied, we will attempt to
present the work in the following manner we will begin the
presentation in 2010 and we will move back in time to the
beginning of our work in Opatija in June 2001.
THE COURSE OF ARRIVING AT A
SCENARIO AND A DESCRIPTION OF THE
SEQUENCE OF WORK
The end-result of producing a scenario are stories and the
descriptions of end states for particular scenarios. In order to
familiarize the reader with the method of arriving at a
scenario as much as possible, we will use the completely
reversed sequence to illustrate the work of the team that
produced the scenarios.
4
Švedska), Graham Barnes (Inform AB, USA/Švedska) i Ged
Davis (Shell, Velika Britanija) kao konzultanti-savjetnici.
Sastavljen je i referentni tim kojega su èinili: Miroslav
Radman (Necker institut Paris), Vlatko Silobrèiæ (HAZU), Leo
Budin (Fakultet raèunarstava i elektrotehnike), Krešimir
Paveliæ (Institut Ruðer Boškoviæ), Željko Èoviæ (Pliva), Neven
Mimica (Vlada Republike Hrvatske, Ministarstvo za europske
integracije) i Željka Antunoviæ (potpredsjednica vlade
Republike Hrvatske).
Projekt se odvijao od rujna 2001. do svibnja 2002. kroz èetiri
glavne radionice (Split, Begovo Razdolje, Plitivèka Jezera i
Brioni) te nekoliko meðuradionica, niza sastanaka u malim
grupama, pojedinaènih radova i konzultacija s èlanovima
referentne grupe.
Jedna od specifiènosti ovog procesa izrade scenarija je i
paralelan proces izrade scenarija u kojem su sudjelovai
studenti Ekonomskog fakulteta u Zagrebu. Projekt su
facilitirali Sergej Buliæ i Vera Matejèiæ uz organizacijsku pomoæ
Dubravke Frajliæ.
Za ilustraciju primijenjene metodologije, prikazati æemo rad
na sljedeæi naèin zapoèet æemo putovanje 2010. godine i
kretati se unatrag do poèetka našega rada u Opatiji u lipnju
2001.
Sam je prikaz ponešto sažeti opis naèina rada i meðurezultata
radne skupine tijekom i izmeðu zajednièkih radionica.
TIJEK NASTANKA SCENARIJA I TIJEK
OPISA RADA NA SCENARIJIMA
Krajnji rezultat izrade scenarija su prièe i opis krajnjih stanja
za pojedine scenarija. Kako bismo vam što više približili
metodu izrade scenarija, koristit æemo potpuno obrnuti slijed
prikaza rada skupine koja je scenarije napravila.
Prethodna ilustracija usporeðuje izradu scenarija s analizom
ledene sante. Samo manji njen dio vidljiv je iznad površine
more. Zadatak je onoga koji istražuje santu leda zaroniti
duboko ispod površine kako bi obuhvatio èitavu santu. Na
slièan naèin, i rad se grupe sastojao od toga da, kreæuæi od
onoga što je oèito i poznato istražuje sve dublje i dublje do
nekih baziènih sila i dogaðaja koji pokreæu društvo i crtaju
našu buduænost. Taj naš put nije bio niti proizvoljan ni
sluèajan. On nas je vodio od jedne do druge razine
razmišljanja, a svaka od njih bila je samo logièan ishod one
prethodne.
 Iceberg analysis

Unstructured data Scenarios

Visible manifestations Stories

Workshop 4

Trends - causes and effects Patterns

Underlying logics Scenario

Workshop 1 of change logics Workshop 3

Description path

The illustration compares the production of a scenario with
the analysis of an iceberg. Only a small part is visible above
the surface of the sea. The task of the person examining an
iceberg is to dive deep under the surface in order to be able to
survey the entire iceberg. In a similar fashion, the work of the
group started from obvious and familiar and they have
investigated deeper and deeper until reaching some basic
forces and events that motivate the society and trace our
future. That journey was not arbitrary or random. It led us
from one to another level of thought, and each of them was
just a logical consequence of the previous one.
By this presentation, we wish to show our journey through
time that has resulted with stories on the future of Croatia
that you are reading now.
STORIES, FICTION NEWS AND SCENARIO
DESCRIPTIOS
Ovim prikazom želimo vam pokazati naš put kroz vrijeme koji
je rezultirao prièama o buduænosti Hrvatske koje sada èitate.
PRIÈE, VIJESTI I OPISI SCENARIJA
Krajnji rezultat našega rada su izmišljene prièe iz života u
Hrvatskoj 2010. godine. One na popularan naèin ilustriraju
završno stanje društva po pojedenim scenariju. Kraæe verzije
prièa publicirane su pri kraju ovog izvještaja.
Postoje meðutim i drugi oblici prikaza scenarija, kao što su:
opisi stanja, kratki opisi stanja po kljuènim podruèjima,
izmišljene vijesti iz ciljane godine, vremenski slijed moguæih
dogaðaja koji završavaju stanjem u pojedinom scenariju i sl.
Svaki od naèina prikaza scenarija namijenjen je ili odreðenom
informacijskom kanalu kao što su TV, novine ili radni izvještaji
same radne grupe. Evo na poèetku tri kratka opisa koji
ilustriraju tri moguæa stanja Hrvatske 2010.

One of the outcomes of our work are the short stories from
Croatia at the year 2010, are shown at the end of publication,
They are the most simple illustrations of the endstates of
three scenarios.
There are also some other forms of describing scenarios such
as end-state descriptions, short descriptions by critical areas,
fiction news from the year 2010, timeline of events that
resulted by specific end-state of scenario etc. Each of those
forms are targeting different audience, different media
channels such as TV and newspapers or they are just the
ways to test the consistency of particular scenario within the
core team. We will start the short descriptions of the
scenarios that we produced for the public opinions surveys.

5
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SCENARIOS
SCENARIO 1: DO IT YOURSELF
Croatia is proceeding slowly with regard to European
integration. EURO has become the national currency in 2006-
2007. The negotiations about entering the EU are not yet
successfully concluded, because
of diffrent reasons such as -
foreigners can still not purchase
property on the coast, and a 12
mile economic zone on the
Adriatic has been introduced
which has been strongly
protested by the neigbouring
country Italy.
Croatian interests are stil l
primary and we especially care
about the Adriatic and our
natural resources.
The pension reform and
privatization have been
implemented within a minimal consensus of the government,
employers and syndicates. The economy is characterized by a
prevalence of multinational companies. Mid-size and smaller
companies are based on Croatian capital. The unemployment
rate is 12% (twice above the EU average). The GDP is
increasing at an average rate of 3 to 5% per year. There is an
increasing number of foreign workers at lesser paid jobs.
Sometimes they are harassed by marginal groups
(Skinheads, Bad Blue Boys, etc.) under racist slogans.
The pension and health insurance are permeated by the
principle of solidarity, but the quality of the services is
markedly different for the rich and the poor. The civil sector
does not have a real influence on politics. "The Croatian
Greens" is registered as a political party so as to strengthen
their influence. Right and left coalitions are taking turns at
power. Popular heroes are sportsmen and entertainers.
The judicial system is improved and there is a stronger
regional approach in the administration. The problem of
corruption has "moved" to the regions. Traffic relations inside
Croatia and with neighboring states have been improved.
Croatia is relatively safe place to live in. National awareness
and self-confidence is strong.
SCENARIO 2: HURRY UP!
Public companies are mostly privatized. Stronger and more
advanced Croatian companies are regionally active. The
Croatian economy is permeated by entrepreneurship, and
the collaboration of foreign regional and domestic companies
has given rise to a strong segment of small and mid-size
6
KRATAK OPIS SCENARIJA
SCENARIJ 1: SAM SVOJ MAJSTOR
Hrvatska se sporo integrira u Europu. Euro je postao
nacionalna valuta 2006-2007. Pregovori oko ulaska u EU još
nisu uspješno dovršeni, jer stranci i dalje ne mogu kupovati
nekretnine uz more, a uz burne
prosvjede Talijana uvedena je
ekonomska zona od 12 milja na
Jadranu.
Interesi Hrvatske su nam uvijek
na prvom mjestu, a posebno se
brinemo o Jadranu i prirodnim
resursima.
Provedene su mirovinska
reforma i privatizacija uz
minimalni koncensus vlade,
poslodavaca i sindikata. U
gospodarstvu prevladavaju
multinacionalne kompanije. U
srednjim i manjim tvrtkama
prevladava hrvatski kapital. Nezaposlenost je 12%
(dvostruko iznad EU prosjeka). GDP raste prosjeèno 3 do 5%
godišnje. Sve je više stranaca na slabije plaæenim poslovima.
Povremeno ih napadaju marginalne grupe (skinheadsi, BBB-
ovci i sl.) s rasistièkom parolama.
U mirovinskom i zdravstvenom osiguranju prisutan je princip
solidarnosti, ali kvaliteta usluga bitno je razlièita za bogate i
siromaše. Civilni sektor nema stvarnoga utjecaja na politiku.
"Hrvatski zeleni» su registrirani kao stranka da bi pojaèali svoj
utjecaj. Na vlasti se smjenjuju desne i lijeve koalicije.
Popularni heroji su ljudi iz svijeta sporta i zabave.
Pravosudni sustav je poboljšan, a u upravi jaèa regionalni
pristup. Problem korupcije se "preselio» u regije. Znaèajno su
poboljšane prometne veze unutar Hrvatske i sa susjednim
državama.
Hrvatska je razmjerno sigurna za život. Jaka je nacionalna
osviještenost i samopouzdanje.
SCENARIJ 2: POŽURI!
Javna poduzeæa su veæinom privatizirana, a snažnije i
naprednije hrvatske tvrtke su regionalno aktivne. Hrvatsko
gospodarstvo prožeto je poduzetništvom, te se iz suradnje sa
znaèajnijim domaæim i stranim regionalnim tvrtkama
iznjedrio snažan segment malih i srednjih poduzeæa. Ipak,
razvoj zemlje je neujednaèen.
Ubrzani i otvoreni razvoj dovodi do redefinicije hrvatskog
identiteta i s tim povezanim rizicima. Identitet se redefinira u
smjeru veæeg individualizma i otvorene suradnje. Iako cijelo
društvo ide naprijed, neke se društvene razlike poveæavaju. U
companies. However, the development of the country is not
uniform.
The accelerated and open development leads to the re-
defining of the Croatian identity and risks that involve that.
The identity is redefined towards greater individualism and
open cooperation.
Although the entire
society is advancing,
s o m e s o c i a l
differences are
increasing. Progress
favors the younger,
connected, more
enterprising and
better educated, and
does not favor the
old, servile mentality,
not connected and
poorly educated.
Knowledge, understood as a dynamic possibility of adopting
new skills, becomes an important part of personal identity
and the most important element of success.
The civil society is flourishing and is setting new standards of
values. In that sense, political activity is being redefined and
political institutions are becoming significantly more efficient
and transparent. Institutions that were an important part of
the old identity (church, nation...) are also being networked
through non-governmental organizations, they operate in a
new way and thus decrease the risk of the division involved
not involved.
The natural environment manages to sustain faster
development, and some progress has been attained by more
efficient regulation at a local level (i.e. the urban planning
problem on the Dalmatian coast). However, some parts, such
as the Istrian coast have been sacrificed to 'progress'.
SCENARIO 3: THE EMPEROR'S NEW CLOTHES
Integration into the EU during the last eight years has not
succeeded, which led to the decrease of foreign investment
and economic stagnation. With the presence of strong
national companies, small and mid-size enterprises are also
developing. However, the small ability of adequate utilization
of the existing technological solutions, coupled with isolation
from the international community, significantly slow down
the development of the society.
Two groups can be discerned in the country the elite, that
consists of a small part of the society and the rest of the
society. In all segments of the society, there are double
standards one that apply to members of the elite, and others,
far more unfavorable that apply to other citizens.
The civil society is characterized by a marginal effect of non-
governmental organizations, there is a strong political
7
napretku bolje uspijevaju mladi, umreženi, poduzetni i bolje
educirani, a lošije stari, službenièkog mentaliteta,
neumreženi i slabije educirani. Znanje, shvaæeno kao
dinamièka moguænost usvajanja novih vještina, postaje vrlo
znaèajan dio osobnog identiteta i najvažniji element uspjeha.
Civilno društvo cvjeta
i nameæe nove
s t a n d a r d e
vrijednosti. U tom
smislu se redefinira
politièko djelovanje, a
politièke institucije su
postale znatno
e f i k a s n i j e i
transparentnije.
Institucije koje su bile
znaèajan dio starog
i d e n t i t e t a ( c r k va ,
nacija...) takoðer se
umrežuju kroz nevladine organizacije, djeluju na novi naèin i
tako smanjuju rizik podjele iskljuèeni-ukljuèeni.
Prirodni okoliš uspijeva podnijeti brži razvoj, te je èak
ostvaren i napredak kroz efikasniju regulaciju na lokalnoj
razini (npr. urbanistièki problem na dalmatinskoj obali). Ipak,
neki dijelovi, poput istarske obale žrtvovani su "progresu".
SCENARIJ 3: CAREVO NOVO RUHO
Integracija u EU tijekom posljednjih osam godina nije
uspjela, što je dovelo do pada stranih ulaganja, te
gospodarsku stagnaciju. Uz prisutnost jakih nacionalnih
kompanija, razvija se malo i srednje poduzetništvo. No, niska
sposobnost adekvatnog korištenja postojeæih tehnoloških
rješenja, uz izoliranost od svjetske zajednice, znaèajno
usporavaju razvoj društva.
U zemlji se mogu razlikovati dvije grupacije elita, koju èini
mali dio stanovništva i ostatak društva. Elita ima vladajuæu
funkciju, kontrolira medije i sudstvo. U svim segmentima
društva postoje dvostruki standardi jedni koji vrijede za
pripadnike elite, te drugi, znatno nepovoljniji, za ostale
graðane.
Civilno društvo obilježeno je marginalnim utjecajem
nevladinih udruga, postoji jak politièki utjecaj na
obrazovanje, gospodarstvo, znanost, kulturu i opæenito sve
aspekte života.
Temeljna usmjerenost graðana je na moæ, bogatstvo i osobni
profit. Naglašava se jak nacionalni identitet, meðutim on ne
poèiva na jasnim vrijednostima i viziji. Istièu se jaki pojedinci
kao temelj "jake nacije".Naglašen je kult moæi.
Ekologija je deklarativno naglašena, ideja oèuvanja okoliša
snažno je promovirana od strane nevladinih udruga.
Istovremeno, u službi razvoja i modernizacije, vladajuæe su
strukture spremne odreæi se oèuvanog okoliša.
influence on the education, economy,
science and generally speaking, on all
aspects of life.
The main orientation of citizens is on
power, affluence and personal profit. A
strong national identity is emphasized;
however it is not based on clear values
and vision. Strong individuals as a basis
of a "strong nation" are favored. The cult
of power is emphasized.
Ecology is emphasized in a declarative
way and the idea of caring for the
environment is strongly promoted by
NGOs. At the same time, the governing
structures are ready to abdicate
responsibility for the environment in the
interest of development and
modernization.

END-STATES KRAJNJA STANJA

The following illustration shows a schematic display of three
final scenarios which correspond to three different states of
Croatia in the year 2010. The end-states are described here
by key words mentioned in the picture. They explain what we
consider to be the most important issues in each of the end
states. The areas and keywords have been established
immediately before the stories begin, but after the basic
scenarios had been "mapped".
Na sljedeæoj slici vidimo shematski prikaz triju krajnjih
scenarija koji korespondiraju s tri razlièita stanja Hrvatske
2010. godine. Krajnja stanja ovdje sažeto opisuju kljuène
rijeèi navedene u slici. One objašnjavaju ono što smatramo
najvažnijim u svakom od krajnjih stanju. Podruèja i kljuène
rijeèi uspostavljeni su neposredno prije nego što poèinju
prièe, ali nakon što su "mapirani" osnovni scenariji.

National cohesion
Croatia 2010 Inclusive, full participation
Shared ideas and national identity
Trust

DO IT YOURSELF HURRY UP
Ex - CROATIAN HERITAGE & PRIDE Ex - NETWORKED EUROCROATIA
- Croatia comes first - Secure the future by
joining the rich - fast!

Traditional forms New forms of

of organization
- administration
- institutions
- business life
- civil society
- international relations
organization
EMPEROR'S NEW CLOTHES - administration
- Technocrats take over - institutions
- business life
- civil society
- international relations
National fragmentation
Low participation
No sharing and cooperation
Fear

8
The end states have to be different as much as possible. We
could also imagine them as three archetypes based on the
chosen coordinates. Each of these scenarios is described by
various arguments, events and forces that can lead to certain
states, as well as a brief description according to critical areas
that determine the overall image of the state.
The number of the scenarios is not set in advance. While
working, we have considered four possible scenarios. The
number four is, of course, not incidental. It is a necessary
result of the adopted methodology that is based on the
coordinate system of values obtained in previous workshops.
If two basic coordinates are taken into account, each with
two extreme states, we will necessarily obtain four different
quadrants. Our analysis, however, showed that two out of the
obtained four scenarios have a slight difference, i.e. that the
actual sequence of events that lead to these states can
overlap into another quadrant. Therefore, two scenarios
were merged into one, as is evident in the following
illustration.
This is how the system of four scenarios that we developed in
the previous phases of the work looked like.
National cohesion
Inclusive, full participation
Shared ideas and national identity
Trust
CROATIAN HERITAGE & PRIDE
Croatia comes first
- Naturalism and cultural identity
- Croats for Croatia (homogenity)
- Finally free & united
- Preservation; protect the heritage
- All cooperation on our terms (no Hague)
- National symbols and martyrs
- Work together
Traditional forms
of organization
- administration
- institutions
- business life
- civil society
- international relations
CROATIAN LOCK - IN
Fight for power
- Lack of coopertaion
- Distrust & fear
- Permanent corruption
- Taking care of one's own business
- Reject foreign influence
- Turbulence barrier to development
- Accept or leave National fragmentation
Low participation
No sharing and cooperation
Fear
9
Krajnja stanja moraju biti, što je moguæe više, diferentna.
Možemo ih takoðer zamisliti kao tri arhetipa zasnovana na
odabranim koordinatnim vrijednostima. Svaki od ovih
scenarija opisan je razlièitim argumentima, dogaðajima i
silama koje do odreðenih stanja mogu dovesti, te kratkim
opisom po kljuènim podruèjima koja odreðuju ukupnu sliku
stanja.
Broj scenarija nije unaprijed odreðen. Tijekom rada
obraðivali smo èetiri moguæa scenarija. Broj èetiri naravno
nije sluèajan. On je nužan rezultat prihvaæene metodologije
koja se zasniva na koordinatnom sustavu vrijednosti
dobivenom u ranijim radionicama. Imamo li dvije osnovne
koordinate, svaku s dva ekstremna stanja, nužno æemo dobiti
èetiri razlièita kvadranta. Naša je analiza meðutim pokazala
kako se dva od dobivenih èetiri scenarija slabo razlikuju.,
odnosno kako stvaran tijek dogaðaja koji dovode do tih
stanja može preskakati iz jednoga u drugi kvadrant. Zato se
ova dva scenarija spojena u jedan, kako je to pokazano na
prethodnoj slici.
Evo kako je izgledao sustav od èetiri scenarija koji smo razvili
u prethodnim fazama rada.
NETWORKED EUROCROATIA
Secure the future by joining the rich - fast!
- Networking to secure stability
- Prioritize EU compatibility
- Support growth of competitive business sector
- Shared vision; becoming a modern European state
- Strive to the best
- Domestic competition
- Your responsibility to succeed
- Haves and have nots
New forms of
organization
- administration
- institutions
- business life
- civil society
- international relations
EXPERIMENTAL ELITE
Technocrats take over
- Quest for modernity manipulates
- Implement the big ideas, then lead the people
- Inherited problems are not solved
- Majority is left behind
- Non-sustainable solutions
- Separate tracks for the elite
- Increasing distrust
As we can see in previous illustration the scenarios that are Kako vidimo, scenariji koji su ovdje opisani u dva donja
described here in the lower two quadrants have been kvadranta na kraju spojeni su nakraju u jedan.
eventually merged into a single one.

In order to better understand the scenarios that are
schematically described as parts of the coordinate system,
other materials that refer to each end-state are produced in
the course of the work. As the most important ones, let us
mention: The path to the Future a timeline or a description of
possible events that would result in a given scenario,
Strategic implications a description of key areas, and The
description of the end state. These materials are the ways of
testing the consistency and reliability of particular scenarios.
Here are some actual examples for each of these
intermediate results.
Kako bi se bolje razumjeli scenariji shematski prikazani kao
dijelova koordinatnoga sustava, tijekom se rada produciraju i
drugi materijali koji opisuju svaki krajnja stanja. Kao
najvažnije navedimo: Put u buduænost opis moguæih
dogaðanja koji æe rezultirati zadanim scenarijem, Strateške
implikacije - opis kljuènih podruèja i Opis krajnjega stanja.
Sve su ovo naèini ispitivanja konzistentnosti i uvjerljivosti
pojedinih scenarija.
Evo stvarnih primjera za svaki od ovih meðurezultata.

THE PATH TO THE FUTURE PUT U BUDUÆNOST

The following picture describes the path into the future. It
consists of possible events in Croatia or its surroundings,
arranged in a time sequence, that lead to one of the
scenarios.
In our example, a segment of the path into the future was
used by a part of the work group that described the scenario
number 3 (at the final instance it was integrated in the
Emperor's new clothes scenario).
U sljedeæoj slici prikazan je put u buduænost. On se sastoji od
moguæih dogaðaja u Hrvatskoj ili njenom okruženju,
poredanih po vremenskom slijedu, koji dovode do jednoga od
scenarija.
U našem primjeru korišten je izvadak puta u buduænost dijela
radne grupe koja je opisivala scenarij broj 3 (na kraju spojen
u scenarij Carevo novo ruho.

Experimental Elite Protests:

- Urban elites
- Young people
- Business life
- Civil society/NGOs
-...
Political power
struggle,
modernists vs.
traditionalists Politics enforced
Political
by strong leader
Lock-in
Sense of insecurity
is deep in society The nation becomes
Regions, groups of fragmented into
No local radically different
people, businesses,
budgets situations and value
increasingly takes care
of their own destinies - the frustrated
National - the indifferent
decentralisation - the content
Croatia becomes
strategy - the violent
a country of "islands"
fails Region with - the desparate
- some are succesful:
no rights (business sectors ex.
some tourist areas)
-many are isolated

No cooperation Other countrys do

with the Hague not know what
ideas Croatia Low level of FDI
actually stand for

10
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
The following paragraphes show one of the brief descriptions
of the scenario (in our case, it is the DO IT YOURSELF)
according to ten critical areas:
Strategic implications (Scenario 1)
Economy and Enterprise: Service economy, prevalence of
smaller and mid-size companies, reformed pension system,
redistributed unused farmind, production of healthy food. In
summary:Service economy, integrated economy, smaller
companies.
Technology and Infrastructure: access to the new
technologies, internet 90%penetration, modernized
transport network, connectedness brings new business
stimuli. In summary: We are using new technology but we do
not produce it, infrastructure connected.
Politics and Public administration: better tax collection,
30% of the budget is divided nationally, bipolar health
service, difficult issuing of green card to foreigners. In
summary: From nationalism to patriotism. Uniform regional
development.
Civil society: The influence of various war veterans is
decreasing, many civil associations-but of small influence,
the Croatian Greens are now an influental party. In summary:
Help the neighbor, influental media (focus on success stories)
Legal system: In accord with the EURO-zone except real
estate property, corruption on a regional level, property
records improved, court has halved the number of pending
cases. In summary: almost euro-stransparent.
Knowledge and Competence: Learning lasts all life long,
international education in companies, brain escape
decreasing, doue to the internet and working aducaion
competition is increasing, larger companies developing
education at work. In summary: Slowly gaining momentum
Environment and Natural resources: State energy plan
introduced, urbanistic plans made, transport of oil and gas us
structly controlled. In summary: ecological awareness and
protection.
C u l t u r e a n d V a l u e s : m a i n l y c a t h o l i c s , c ro a t i a n
historymandatory at university, weak workforce mobility,
importing workers for lesser-paid jobs, sense of responsibility
increased, emphasis on traditional values (trust, national
identity, solidarity, family, respect for elders), more bilingual
education. In summary: traditional values and responsability.
11
STRATEŠKE IMPLIKACIJE
Sljedeæa ilustracija prikazuje jedan od kratkih opisa scenarija
(u našem primjeru scenarija SAM SVOJ MAJSTOR) po deset
kljuènih podruèja.
Strateške implikacije (Scenario 1)
Ekonomija i poduzetništvo: Uslužna ekonomija,
prevladavaju manje i srednje privatne tvrtke, reformiran
mirovinski sustav, redistribuirana neiskorištena plodna
zemlja, proizvodnja zdrave hrane. Kratko: Uslužna
ekonomija, integrirano gospodarstvo, manje tvrtke.
Tehnologija i infrastruktura: Pristup novim
tehnologijama, internet 90%penetracije, modernizirana
transportna mreža, povezanost donosi nove poslovne
poticaje. Kratko:koristimo novu tehnologiju ali je ne
proizvodimo, infrastrukturno povezani.
Politika i državne administracija: Bolje prikupljanje
poreza, 30% budžeta dijeli se na regionalno, bipolarna
zdravstvena usluga, teško izdavanje zelene karte strancima.
Kratko: Od nacionalizma do patriotizma. Ujednaèen
regionalni razvoj.
Civilno društvo: Pada utjecaj ratnih veterana, mnogo
civilnih udruga - ali maloga utjecaja, Hrvatski zeleni sada su
utjecajna stranka. Kratko:Pomozi susjeda, utjecajni mediji
(fokus na prièe o uspjehu)
Pravni sustav: Usklaðeno s EURO-zonom osim vlasništva
nekretnina, korupcija na regionalnoj razini, gruntovne knjige
poboljšane, sud prepolovio broj neriješenih predmeta.
Kratko:Takoreæi euro-transparentni.
Znanje i kompetencija: Uèenje se proteže na èitav život,
interno obrazovanje u tvrtkama, bijeg mozgova sve manji,
zahvaljujuæi Internetu i radnom obrazovanju raste
kompetencija, veæe tvrtke razvijaju obrazovanje za rad.
Kratko: Polako se dobiva na zamahu.
Okoliš i prirodni izvori: Uveden državni energetski plan,
napravljen urbanistièki planovi, prijevoz nafte i plina strogo
kontroliran. Kratko:ekološka svijest i zaštita.
Kultura i vrijednosti: Uglavnom katolici, obavezna
hrvatska povijest na sveuèilištima, slaba pokretljivost radne
snage, uvoz radnika za lošije poslove, raste osjeæaj
odgovornosti, naglasak na tradicionalne vrijednosti
(povjerenje, nacionalni identitet, solidarnost, obitelj,
poštivanje starijih), sve više dvojeziène edukacije.
Kratko:Tradicionalne vrijednosti i odgovornost.
Identity and Image:Difficult for cooperation, foreigners
are not liked (especially as owners), our islands are an elite
destination, traditional culture is dominant, safe for living,
balance of left and right parties. In summary: Croatia is for
Croats.
Identitet i slika (image): Teški za suradnju, stranci nisu
baš omiljeni (pogotovo kao vlasnici), naši otoci su elitna
destinacija, tradicionalna kultura prevladava, sigurno za
život, balans lijevih i desnih partija. Kratko: Hrvatska je za
Hrvate.

Global integration: EU has become an EURO zone, anti-
globalization movements are becoming stronger, integrating
in world economic associations, EURO has become a national
currency, capital market is a part of the central European one,
weak influence of MMF. In summary: We are integrating
under our conditions!
Globalna integracija: EU je postao EURO zona,
antiglobalizacijski pokreti jaèaju, integriramo se u svjetska
ekonomska udruženja, EURO je postao nacionalna valuta,
tržište kapitala dio srednjeeuropskog, MMF slabo utjecajan.
Kratko: Integriramo se pod našm uvjetima!

DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS END STATES OPIS KRAJNJEGA STANJA ZA SCENARIJE

In order to illustrate the description of end states we will use
an excerpt from the materials of the group that worked on
scenario number 1 (DO IT YOURSELF). The actual
description is quite long, and because of that we are including
only some illustrative examples. The aim of these
descriptions is o give as comprehensive as possible
elaboration of the actual state of the society that is
represented by particular scenario. The description is
additionally verified in relation to all selected critical areas.
We have chosen the description of the final state for the areas
of Global integration and Economy & enterprise.
Za ilustraciju opisa krajnjih stanja poslužit æemo se izvodom iz
materijala grupe koja je obraðivala scenarij broj 1 (Sam svoj
majstor). èitav opis prilièno dugaèak, p zbog toga donosimo
samo ilustrativne izvode. Cilj je ovih opisa - što temeljitije
elaborirati stvarno stanje društva koje odgovara odreðenom
scenariju, a opis se dodatno provjerava u odnosi na sva
odabrana kritièna podruèja. Ovdje smo odabrali opis
krajnjega stanja za podruèja Globalna integracija i Ekonomija
i poduzetništvo.

High integration
Croatian Heritage and Pride

GLOBAL INTEGRATION ECONOMY & ENTERPRISING

! Following the unwillingness of the first line of
accession countries to join EU under unfavourable
terms, the EU has started to transform into a more
flexible political and economic association of
countries, called the EUROZONE
! of the IMF and the World Bank to stimulate/sustain
growth in the less developed countries, there are
! Croatian economy is mostly a service economy
(tourism, shipping, transport), with a strong agricultural
sector
! The economy is privatized, efficiency is catching up, the
most of newly formed enterprises are in Croatian
ownership
! Croatian pension system reform has been crried out
INTEGRATION

serious doubts concerning their future role/purpose
! Following increasing inequalities in wealth between
the developed and the less/under developed
countries, the antiglobalisation movement has
become very strong in the CEEC and the "third
world" countries
! Croatia is CEFTA, EFTA, DWFTA (new global free
trade organisation) member is still negotiating
EUROZONE membership
! EURO is the national currency
! Croatian capital market has been fully integrated
into the Central European capital market
successfully, lowering the pressure in the social
security security
! Only a few truly global companies have opened their
offices in Croatia, with some Croats being on executive
positions
! The importance of Croatian companies worldwide is
gradually picking up
! Land in rural areas that had not been used productively
(due to the absence and/or lack of interest of its
owners) has been renationalised and is being leased on
long term basis to Coatian farmers
! Croatian agriculture and food production is, compared
to EUROZONE, closing the gap in terms of productivity,
with healthy food being the dominant orientation

Conclusions: Industrious but cautious, Integrations within the limits of our interests, Learned the
lesson from fast selling companies to foreigners in the past
Traditional
forms of ORGANISATION
organisation
12
COORDINATE SYSTEM OF SCENARIOS KOORDINATNI SUSTAV SCENARIJA

One of the key moments of producing a scenario is the choice
of a valid coordinate system that will result in differences in
the outcome of the scenario according to their main
properties. At this level of group work, there can be many
conflicts because participants at the beginning tend to prefer
one scenario in relation to others. This also leads to posing
questions such as - what is actually important for the future
and what do we want from the future? Members of the team
have to try their best to disregard their personal preferences
or values and try to imagine the conditions that will result in
any of the future scenarios without any prejudices.
Jedan od kljuènih trenutaka izrade scenarija je izbor
valjanoga koordinatnoga sustava koji æe rezultirati razlikama
u ishodu scenarija po njihovim glavnim svojstvima. Na ovom
stupnju grupnoga rada može postojati i mnogo konflikata, jer
èlanovi u poèetku teži preferirati jedan scenarij u odnosu na
druge. To takoðer dovodi do postavljanja pitanja o tome što
je važno za buduænost i što mi želimo u buduænosti? Èlanovi
grupe moraju ovdje napustiti svoje osobne preferencije ili
vrijednosti i pokušati se uživjeti u uvjete koji æe rezultirati
kojim od buduæih scenarija.

TWO AXES DVIJE OSOVINE

The axes of the future coordinate system are obtained from
the systematization of key driving forces (predetermined or
uncertain, positive or negative, originating from the
environment or from the inside) on one hand, and critical
areas on the other. In the course of the analysis of these
driving forces and critical areas we have reached the
conclusion that we can systemize them according to two
main axes. One was related to the group called Integration
and the other Organizational forms.
This is how these axes were described in the course of our
work:
Osovine buduæeg koordinatnoga sustava dobivaju se iz
sistematizacije kljuènih faktora odnosno pokretaèkih sila
(sluèajnih ili nesluèajnih, pozitivnih ili negativnih) s jedne
strane, i kljuènim podruèjima s druge. Analizom tiha faktora i
kljuènih podruèja došli smo do zakljuèka da ih možemo
sistematizirati po dvije osnovne osovine od kojih je jedna
okupljena pod skupnim nazivom Integracija, a druga Oblici
organizacije.
Evo kako su te osovine opisane tijekom našega rada:

Bases for scenario dimensions Croatia 2010

INTEGRATION
Included Excluded
Cooperative atmosphere
Communication
Openess &Awareness
Trust
Shared ideas and vision
Elite vs. Shared society
Techonlogy connectivity
Globalisation
Identity
Corruption

Traditional ORGANISATION FORMS New forms of

forms of
organization
organization Political administration
Civil society
Business life
Competence
Entrepreneurship The lists below the arrows
Technology application are a summary of the
Education overriding forces developed
Welfare/Pension by the group. This variety of
dimensions are proposed to
Environment be summarized into two key
scenario dimensions.

13
Axes are main factors or forces that can have a positive or
negative impact, act strongly or weakly, be a result of our own
or else's action, etc. In the previous text, we saw how these
factors systematized in such a way bring to possible changes
in Croatia. When set like this, one against the other, it is easier
to think in extreme terms which ensure the differentiation of
scenarios states.
CRITICAL AREAS AND DRIVING FORCES
Critical areas
The critical areas selection might influence the results
dramatically. It is dangerous to predefine areas as relevant or
irrelevant by some academic or traditional criteria. The
process of setting the critical area could be illustrated by the
next illustration.
ANALYSIS, EXPERT
STATING AREA
PRESENTATIONS,
SELECTION
DRIVING FORCES
LISTING
The choice of critical areas was made during the second
workshop. It arose by a logical systematization of all driving
forces that we could think of. In that regard, this selection
was actually an abstract level of all the events and forces that
the working group elaborated during its work and not a
framework of thought set in advance.
In order to make the entire intellectual process of generating
critical areas easier, at the beginning we took into account
five traditional areas: politics and public administration,
economz and business, culture and values, technologz and
infrastructure, health and environment. It was during the
actual analysis when we arrived at ten factors as follows:
environment and natural resources, technology and
infrastructure, politics and public administration, knowledge
and competence, global integration, judicial system,
economy and enterprising, civil society, identity and image,
culture and values.
We are of the opinion that these ten critical areas should be
taken into account when producing a scenario for the future
of Croatia. These are areas that were delineated during the
earlier workshops and only slightly adjusted later, but we
always had to focus on them in order to ensure that they are
14
Osovine su reprezentanti pokretaèkih sila koji mogu imati
pozitivan ili negativan predznak, djelovati snažni ili slabo, biti
rezultat našega ili tuðega djelovanja, svjesnoga ili
nesvjesnoga itd. U ranijem tekstu vidjeli smo kako tako
sistematizirane, ove sile djeluju na moguæe promjene u
Hrvatskoj. Kada se osovine ovako postave jedna nasuprot
druge, olakšano je razmišljati u ekstremnim pojmovima, èime
se osigurava diferentnost scenarija.
KLJUÈNA PODRUÈJA I KLJUÈNE POKRETAÈKE
SILE
Kljuèna podruèja
Izbor kljuènih podruèja može bitno utjecati na scenarije.
Zbog toga se taj izbor ne radi sluèajno, niti na osnovi neke
akademske podjele na "važna" i "nevažna" podruèja života.
Na poèetku rada postavi se podjela na politiku idržavnu
REDEFINITION
CLUSTERING OF
OF
DRIVING
CRITICAL AREAS
FORCES
administraciju, gospodarstvo i biznis, zdravstvo i zaštitu
okoliša, tehnologiju i infrastrukturu, kulturu i vrijednodti, sl.
Poèetna kritièna podruèja se analiziraju na razlièite naèine,
izraðuje se popis detaljnih uvjeta (pokretaèkih slila) koji
mijenjaju situaciju u društvu, a zatim se ti uvjeti logièki
grupiraju. Tako dobivamo krajnji izbor kritiènih podruèja.
Izbor kljuènih podruèja uèinjen je tijekom druge radionice.
Ovaj je izbor u stvari apstraktna razina moguæih ili stvarno
realiziranih dogaðaja i pokretaèkih sila koje radna grupa
elaborira tijekom rada. Podruèja nisu unaprijed zadani okvir
razmišljanja. Nakon završne analize došli smo do slijedeæih
podruèja: okoliš i prirodni izvori, znanje i kompeticija,
tehnologija i infrastruktura, politika i državna uprava, pravni
sustav, civilno društvo, ekonomija i poduzetništvo, svjetska
integracija, identitet i slika Hrvatske, kultura i virjednosti.
Za ovih deset kljuènih podruèja smatramo da se obavezno
moraju uzeti u obzir pri izradi scenarija o buduænosti
Hrvatske. To su podruèja koja su sastavljena tijekom prve
radionice i samo donekle kasnije podešena. U kasnijem radu
smo se na njih morali fokusirati kako bismo osigurali da sva
budu "pokrivena". Da bismo uopæe došli do deset kritiènih
podruèja, koristili smo tehnologiju "klasteringa" pomoæu koje
all “properly” covered. In order to arrive at ten critical areas at
all, we used the technology of the "spider's net» in which we
logically clustered all the mentioned driving forces and
possible events.
We are presenting here these factors and events for one of
the scenarios and only for some key areas, because
enumerating all of them would be too long for this
presentation. As we can see in the illustration, the chosen
forces could be systematized in three recognizable areas
(Knowledge and expertise, Economy & Enterprising and
Global integration) while some factors remained not
clustered (at least during that step).
smo logièki ukljuèivali sve, potpuno slobodno navedene
pokretaèke sile i moguæe dogaðaje. Sljedeæi prikaz odnosi se
na proces logièkog grupiranja pokretaèkih sila kako smo
opisali na prethodnim slikama.
Sile i dogaðaje prikazujemo za jedan on buduæih scenarija i to
samo za neka kljuèna podruèja, jer bi nabrajanje svih bilo
predugaèko za ovaj prikaz. Kako u slici vidimo, odabrane
pokretaèke sile i dogaðaji sistematizirani su ovom sluèaju u tri
prepoznatljiva podruèja (Znanje i struènost, Ekonomija i
poduzetništvo i Globalna integracija) dok su neki faktori ostali
nesistematizirani (bar pri ovom koraku).

CLUSTERING (NET OF FORCES) KLASTERING (SISTEMATIZIRANJE SILA)

ECONOMY AND
ENTERPRISING Comersi-
alisations o
New New
politics and
model educationa Effective media
Educations of financing l model for model for
A stimulating
and skills education, skills, inactive commerci-
and more
primarly and alisation of
efficient tax
higher judgement Multi- innovations Comersi-
Brain drain Education system
national alisations o
Radical new
financial politics and
model of
Creativity capital media
education focusing
and Attracting
on practical skills Monolism &
inovation intern. capital,
and taking Oligopoly
Non primarly FDI
responsibility
Reform of
proffessio-
education Uncontrolled Care - taker
nalism
tourism management
Investment
Statedriven Diversifi- Value
in R&D,
investment cation added
reversed
in R&D of energy tourism
brain drain Fast
Geopolitical sources privati- industry
position and sation and
KNOWLEDGE AND communication
between east and
opening of the
real estate Pension
COMPETENCE west Europe market and health
European system
integration reform

Clever
immigration EU integration
Opening policy
to the EU
south-east requirements
Sensation-
European for Croatian Low
alism
market change natality
(media)
GLOBAL Globalization

INTEGRATION

Work on producing the scenario has its other steps such as
expert presentations and analyses, work with a reference
group, analysis of reference literature before workshops,
preparation of factor and event determination, etc. Those
steps have not been shown here, only the ones that we feel
are the most important to understand the method used.
Rad na izradi scenarija ima i svoje druge korake kao što su
ekspertni prikazi i analize, rad s referentnom grupom, analiza
referentne literature prije radionica, priprema za odreðivanje
pokretaèkih sila i dogaðaja itd. Ovdje nisu prikazani svi ovi
koraci, nego samo oni koji nam se èine važni za shvaæanje
korištene metode.

The previous descriptions have presented the work of the Prethodni opis pokazao je rad na izradi scenarija hrvatskih
core team on producing the scenarios of Croatian futures in buduænosti u obrnutom slijedu. Poèeli smo s krajnjim
reverse order. We began with the final results, and finished rezultatim, a završili s poèetnima. Smisao takvoga naèina
15
with initial stages. The rationale of such a manner of
presentation is our wish to show how the scenario, although
finally formulated as simple stories, does not arise merely by
thinking about the future. No single member of the work
group did not know in advance which scenario will be the
result of our work, nor were they able (owing to the applied
method) to project their personal desires and values into it. In
that regard at least, writing the scenario was a learning
process for all participants. Learning the method itself, and
learning about the future of Croatia as well. This learning led
to an entirely new attitude about how tomorrow can we or
our children live in the country that we love and in which we
live. It gave us a new basis to think and decide on what could
we do to make one of the scenarios materialize and could we
do something more to make a future happen in a way that has
not been described here?
FROM SCENARIO TO STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT
OF CROATIA
Our project has been assisted by many Croatian economic
subjects. The eyes of the economy are turned towards the
future and focused on solving problems, as well as the need
to understand the nature of changes. How are markets and
conditions of doing business a subject to change, and what
are the best strategies of managing risks and opening new
possibilities these are just some of the questions that
scenarios can be used to answer. The importance and
complexity of conversations about the various possible
versions of the future is especially pertinent after "September
11".
To look in advance requires more than a simple extrapolation
of the parameters of the present. That is why scenarios are
not prognoses or projections of wishes. They are challenging,
coherent and credible alternative stories about the future
that contain an entire spectrum of ideas. They are formed in
order to help us question our assumptions, to direct our
attention to key uncertainties, to understand the motivators
and dynamic and to test our strategies and plans.
The scenario is in no way an alternative strategy of
development. The following graphical representation shows
how the process of strategic planning using the methodology
of the scenario appears. We can see that after producing a
scenario comes a phase of creating a strategic vision and only
after that, strategic focusing, the choice of the very strategy
PRODUCTION OF VISIONS
SCENARIO
What kind of Croatia
What will the do we want and can
future be? bring about?
16
prikazivanja je u našoj želji da pokažemo kako scenarij, iako
na kraju pretoèen ujednostavnu prièu, ne nastaje pukim
razmišljanjem o buduænosti. Niti jedan od èalnova radne
grupe nije unaprijed znao koji æe scenarij biti rezultat našega
rada, niti je (zahvaljujuæi primijenjenoj metodi) mogao u njih
projicirati svoje želje i vrijednosti. U tom pogledu, pisanje
scenarija bio je za sve sudionike proces uèenja. Uèenja same
metode, ali i uèenja o buduænosti. Ovo je uèenje dovelo do
posve novoga stava o tome kako sutra mi ili naša djeca mogu
živjeti u zemlji koju volimo i u kojoj živimo. Ono nam je dalo
posve novu osnovu za razmišljanja i odluke o tome - što mi
mižemo uèiniti da se ostvari koji od scenarija i da li možemo
što uèiniti da se dogodi buduænost koja nije ovdje opisana?
OD SCENARIJA DO STRATEGIJE RAZVOJA
HRVATSKE
Naš su projekt pomogli mnogi hrvatski gospodarski subjekti.
Oèi su gospodarstvenika usmjerene prema buduænosti s
fokusom na rješavanje problema, te potrebom da se razumije
priroda promjena. Kako se tržišta i uvjeti poslovanja mogu
mijenjati, te koje su najbolje strategije za upravljanje rizicima
i otvaranje novih moguænosti - samo su neka od pitanja na
koja se u scenarijima mogu tražiti odgovori. Važnost i
složenost razgovora o moguæim verzijama buduænostima,
naroèito je naglašena nakon "11. rujna".
Gledati unaprijed zahtijeva više od puke ekstrapolacije
parametara sadašnjosti. Scenariji zato nisu ni prognoze niti
projekcija želja. Oni su izazovne, koherentne i vjerodostojne
alternativne prièe o buduænosti, koje sadrže èitav spektar
ideja. Oblikovani su da nam pomognu propitkivati naše
pretpostavke, usmjeriti pažnju na kljuène nepredvidivosti,
razumjeti pokretaèe i dinamiku te testirati naše strategije i
planove.
Scenarij nipošto nije alternativna strategija razvoja. Na
sljedeæem grafièkom prikazu možemo vidjeti kako izgleda
proces strateškog planiranja korištenjem metodologije
scenarija. Vidimo da u fazi poslije izrade scenarija dolazi faza
stvaranja zajednièke vizije, a tek onda strateško fokusiranje,
izbor strategije, te akcijski planovi za njeno ostvarenje.
CREATING A DEVELOPEMENT
STRATEGY
How to implement a vision
within the possible
scenarios?
and action plans for its implementation.
The relation between the scenarios and strategies as tools to Slijedom navedenog, hrvatski scenariji "Kreacija Kroacije
think about the future is well illustrated by the following 2010." namijenjeni su svim graðanima naše zemlje a
drawing as well. posebno onima koji žele istraživati buduænost i spremni su

Scenario - Based Strategy Process

ran
Enviromental k, s
Vision elec
analysis t
pe nd

e
iv
rs pa
ct
pe ex

Focused Strategic
Team Strategic Action
scenarios of options Strategy
formation options plans
the future analysis
as
s
im
ila
te

Threats & us
Charter foc
opportunities

As a consequence of the scenario basic concepts, the
Croatian scenarios "Croatia's Creatia 2010» are meant for all
citizens of our country; especially those who wish to
investigate the future and are ready to face the challenges of
their own understanding of Croatia and the manner of its
further development.
stati pred izazov vlastitog razumijevanja Hrvatske i naèina
njena daljnjeg razvoja.
Odnos scenarija i strategija razvija na metodološki analitièan
naèin prikazuje i gornja ilustracija:
Izrada strategije zasnovane na scenarijima

AT THE END, WE START AT THE BEGINNING NA KRAJU POÈINJEMO DO POÈETKA

In the Foundation's 2020 project "Croatia's Creatia 2010» we
have developed and formed three scenarios so as to illustrate
several possible paths that could lead to changes in Croatia in
the following eight years.
Scenarios of course do not aspire to, nor are separated from
U projektu "Kreacija Kroacije 2010." Zaklade 2020. razvili
smo i oblikovali tri scenarija kako bismo ilustrirali nekoliko
moguæih putova koji mogu dovesti do promjena u Hrvatskoj u
slijedeæih osam godina.
Scenariji naravno ne pretendiraju biti, niti jesu, odvojeni od

17
the system of values that they arose from. The work group
recognizes the fact that we are all prisoners of our own
mindsets and the language that we use, and that the
understanding could be improved and continued with each
new word, image and new story. We are also aware of the fact
that those who will continue our work will have a better
vocabulary for discussions about the future, and it is our
humble task to illuminate their way.
If the presented scenarios motivate other citizens in Croatia
to talk about Croatia in this way our main objective is fulfilled!
sustava vrijednosti iz kojeg su nastali. Radna grupa
prepoznaje èinjenicu da smo svi zarobljenici svojih vlastitih
mentalnih sklopova i jezika kojim se služimo, te da
razumijevanje može biti produbljeno i nastavljeno sa svakom
novom rijeèju, slikom, a naroèito nekom novom prièom.
Svjesni smo takoðer èinjenice da æe oni koji æe nastaviti naš
rad, imati bogatiji rjeènik za diskusije o buduænosti, a naša je
zadaæa upravo osvijetliti im taj put.
Ako prikazani scenariji potaknu i druge graðane Hrvatske da
na taj naèin razgovaraju o Hrvatskoj - naš je cilj ostvaren!

The last but not least important, the role of expert support of
our facilitators was immensely valuable. The team could
hardy gain any results without a great support provided by
Nextwork. The experiences they have and how they
mediated their knowledge to the group we will always
remember. In this way, we thank them for their help!
I na kraju, ulogu struène podrške posrednika i veliku podršku
u radu dali su struènjaci Nextworka-a. Oni imaju iskustva u
ovakvim projektima i bez njihovoga sudjelovanja teško da
bismo poluèili bilo kakve rezultate. Ovim putem im na pomoæi
zahvaljujemo!

The work of Foundation 2020 on the scenario planning Naše su aktivnosti potpomogle i ove tvrtke/organizacije:
project was supported by the following companies /
institutions:

! INA ! INA
! HT ! HT
! Croatia Airlines ! Croatia Airlines
! PBZ ! PBZ
! Ericsson Nikola Tesla ! Ericsson Nikola Tesla
! Nava banka ! Nava banka
! Volvo ! Volvo
! Amadeus Croatia ! Amadeus Croatia
! Shell ! Shell
! Airport Zagreb ! Zraèna luka Zagreb
! Art's ! Art's
! Premisa ! Premisa
! Lukšiæ group ! Lukšiæ grupa
! ABB ! ABB
! Veèernji list ! Veèernji list
! Podravka ! Podravka
! Croatian chamber of Commerce ! Hrvatska gospodarska komora
! LURA ! LURA
! Euroarts ! Euroarts
! DMC ! DMC
! Generalturist ! Generalturist
! Peugeot ! Peugeot
! Eurocom computers ! Eurocom raèunala
! HP ! HP
! Olympus ! Olympus
! Microsoft ! Microsoft
! Pliva ! Pliva

18
Azriel five,five,nine
- What a poor guy he heard two women breathing down his
neck.
- Poor thing.
He found himself on the market, more spontaneously than on
purpose: simply worming along like, actually, every time the
feeling of homesickness becomes too strong. Working in
construction didn't go the way agents of IBUK, ROVOKOP and
other construction giants, whose names he couldn't even
remember anymore promised. But, in their catalogues,
everything looked so perfect: - Croatia today is what
Germany was in the seventies, guys in two-rows button suits
and shoes with points twisted up were reassuring him. Their
offer was hard to turn down: they guaranteed eight times
more wages than he would make as a shock-worker, working
overtime on the construction site around Arada, all though in
Temiavaru wasn't any better, let alone in Bucharest where
there was so many of them who were digging ground for
peanuts. Eight times exactly at least that was what
Moldavian's calculation showed.
“What a poor guy”, he heard it in his head again “ Poor thing”.
He glanced behind: there were two elderly ladies behind a
counter. Man would expect fruits and vegetables, but they
were standing under cover with a logo: “Action neighbor to
neighbor”.
He really looked ragged. With swollen arcades and one really
nasty stitch along his forehead.
- Come here, sir he heard them calling him would you like
some coffee, tea, juice?
Dumitru Mitu confusingly twinkled against the sun.
- You must have heard of the association called “Neighbor to
neighbor”? and before he got a chance to say anything, the
lady went on: - We are promoting an idea of living in safe and
human surrounding, cherishing good neighborly
relationships, helping elderly people, nonviolence and
kindness...
- ...in today's world of globalization, sir, alienation is
increasing, traditional values are fading, you probably felt it
on your skin?
- I'm not from around here said Mitu.
- Then, where are you from? the elderly speaker looked at
him with suspicion.
- Arad, Rumania.
- Oh that was all she said Oh.
Since he was beat up by the skin heads, Mitu was always too
careful. He was going out only by daytime, using only
crowded streets, markets and shopping centers. While they
were beating him up, he heard their insults based on his
nationality, telling him to go back where he came from.
He knew who those boys where. They were from this
neighborhood, unemployed for years.
When he asked the IBUK's foreman why are they importing
workers while there is such unemployment in the country, he
19
Azrijel Pet, Pet, Devet
"Kakav jadan tip"-osluhnu dvije žene za štandom kako mu
dahæu za vratom.
"Jadnièak".
Našao se na pijaci, više spontano negoli namjerno:
jednostavno je bauljao Srednjacima kao, uostalom, i svaki
put kada bi ga baš jako preuzela nostalgija za zavièajem.
Bauštela nije išla onako kako su mu to naprièali agenti IBUK-a
i ROVOKOP-a i ostalih graðevinskih giganata èijih se imena
više ne bi ni sjetio. Ali, na njihovim katalozima sve je izgledalo
savršeno: "Hrvatska je sada ono što je bila Njemaèka
sedamdesetih», uvjeravali su ga ti tipovi u odjelima na
dvoredno kopèanje i u cipelama s jako izvrnutim špicevima.
Njihovu ponudu je bilo teško odbiti: jamèili su osam puta veæu
plaæu nego što bi kao udarnik-prekonormaš mogao zašljakati
na baušteli oko Arada, no ni u Temišvaru nije bilo bolje, a
kamoli u Bukureštu gdje je toliko puno onih koji kopaju za
crkavicu. Toèno osam puta - barem je tako pokazivala
Moldovanova raèunica.
"Kakav jadan tip", odzvanja mu glavom. "Jadnièak". Zraknu
iza sebe: dvije su to starije gospoðe za tezgom. Èovjek bi
oèekivao voæe ili povræe, u najmanju ruku, no žene stoje ispod
tende s logom: "Akcija susjed susjedu".
Doista izgleda odrpano. S nateèenim arkadama i jednim
veoma gadnim šavom uzduž èeonog režnja.
"Priðite, gospodine»- èuo je kako mu se obraæaju "Jeste li za
kavu, èaj, sok?»
Dumitru Mitu zbunjeno zaškilji kontra suncu.
"Mora da ste veæ èuli za udrugu "Susjed susjedu»?»- I prije
nego je išta izustio, gospoða nastavi:»Promoviramo ideju
življenja u sigurnom i humanom okruženju, njegovanje
dobrosusjedskih vrijednosti, pomoæ našim starima,
nenasilnost i ljubaznost...»
"...U današnjem svijetu globalizacije, gospodine, raste
otuðenost, nestaju tradicionalne vrijednosti, vjerojatno ste i
vi osjetili to na svojoj koži?»
"Ja nisam odavdje»-reèe Mitu.
"Nego?»-Oratorica u godinama nepovjerljivo ga odmjeri.
"Arad, Rumunjska.»
"Ah» - bilo je sve što je rekla: - "Ah.»
Otkada su ga prebili skinsi, Mitu je puhao i na hladno. Izlazio
je samo preko dana, držao se prometnih ulica, tržnica i
shopping centara. Dok su ga cipelarili, slušao ih je kako ga
vrijeðaju po nacionalnoj osnovi, kako mu govore da ide tamo
odakle je i došao.
Znao je te deèke iz viðenja. Bili su tu iz kvarta, godinama veæ
na burzi.
Kad je pitao predradnika IBUK-a zašto uvoze radnu snagu
kada je velika nezaposlenost, reèeno mu je da su domaæi ljudi
preskupi. Takva je praksa, objasnio mu je. Još od 2006., od
ulaska Hrvatske u drugi krug zemalja kandidata za EU. Mitu je
èak bio sklon opravdati bijes te mladeži: doduše, na tekmi
Hrvatska-Rumunjska nije se mogao suzdržati kad su njegovi
20
said that home people are too expensive. That's the practice,
he explained. Since 2006., when Croatia went into second
circle of countries candidates for entering the EU. Mitu was
even well-disposed to justify the rage of this youth: all
though, at the game Croatia Romania he couldn't resist
when his people evened the result. He jumped like a
possesed man, in the middle of the bar. “Gooooal!” , he
shouted. Later he drank a little. Treating everyone, he forgot
himself. When he got out, boys waited for him in the park. He
told them that he loves Croatia: “(C)uker, Boban...”, he was
naming legends, but all the same they beat him up badly. He's
still on sickleave. A small limp and he's still working on his
eloquence. He is already reading newspapers without many
difficulties.
All morning it smells like rain, but he is rather outside than in
IBUK's sheds that smell like badly kept emigrants skin and
old, opened cans. People are saving money and sending it
home. He picked up a newspaper after some grandpa. “I'll
study them in peace” he thinks and sits on the bench.
“Croatia in eight finals of European championship” he reads a
huge writing on the cover of a newspaper. Under the
photographs of checked jerseys on players in trans.
“Ivica Olic checkmated Italians” says writing under the
picture. His Rumanians lost in the first circle.
“As usual,” he thought, feeling little envious of all that
Croatian sporting success: skiing, biking, swimming,
tennis...and now soccer. Sometimes just like right now he
would honestly be sorry that he wasn't part of this self-
assured nation that he knew so little about until two years ago
when IBUK dragged him to Zagreb.
Ah, he sighed: ”What does the average Croatian know about
his country?” Count Dracula and that can of a car Dacia:
possibly he heard of Securitate and Causescu...and mostly
nothing else.
It was a few minutes after noon, so he hurried up to meet a
Moldavian guy. He tried not to make that “date” because he
knew that he'll have to listen to his complains, but the guy
Moldavian seemed so lost and sad, so he decided to meet
him after all.
Greetings in Rumanian. “I'll force Croatian from now on”
decides Mitu while shaking Moldavian's hand.
- So he asks how's it in Croatia?
He said that they worked by the sea. He and a group of
Azerbedian's workers.
- Paragliding center in Grobnik, the largest one in Europe he
explained in bad Croatian. IBUK, he said, put then on the
ground work him and two Nigerians.
- So? You'll have field allowance?
Moldavian made a face: - I don't get overtimes for months,
paychecks late and they are always deducting something.
How's with you?
- Shopping center in Lucko is coming to an end. But I'm on
sickleave...
- So I heard. Skinheads? asked Moldavian. Mitu Nodded.
21
izjednaèili. Skoèio je kao ofuren, u sred kafiæa. "Gooooool",
viknuo je. Poslije je malo popio. Èastio, zaboravio se. Kada je
izišao napolje, deèki su ga doèekali u parkiæu. Rekao im je da
voli Hrvatsku: "(C)uker, Boban...", nabrajao je legende, ali
svejedno su ubili boga u njemu. Još uvijek je na bolovanju.
Pomalo šepa i unapreðuje jezik. Veæ može èitati novine bez
veæih problema.
Cijelo jutro miriše na kišu, no radije je vani nego u IBUK-ovim
barakama gdje se osjeti po slabo njegovanoj emigrantskoj
koži i starim, naèetim konzervama. Ljudi štede i zaradu šalju u
domovinu. Upravo je pokupio novine za nekim dedicom. "Na
miru æe ih prouèiti" - pomisli i sjedne na klupu.
"Hrvatska u osmini finala Europskog prvenstva", proèita
krièeæi natpis preko cijele naslovnice. Ispod fotografija
kockastih dresova igraèa u transu. "Ivica Oliæ matirao
Talijane" - potpis ispod slike. Njegovi Rumunji ispali su u
prvom krugu. "Kao i obièno", pomisli, pomalo zavidan na sve
te sportske uspjehe Hrvata: skijanje, biciklizam, plivanje,
tenis...pa sad još i nogomet. Ponekad - baš kao sada - iskreno
bi požalio što nije dio ove samouvjerene nacije o kojoj je tako
malo znao sve do prije dvije godine kada ga je IBUK dovukao
u Zagreb, trbuhom za kruhom.
Eh, uzdahnu on: "(c)to prosjeèan Hrvat zna o njegovom
zavièaju?" Grof Drakula i ona kanta od auta Dacia:
eventualno je èuo za Securitatea i Causesca...i uglavnom
ništa više.
Prošlo je podne, stoga požuri na viðenje s jednim Moldavcem.
Pokušao je izvrdati taj "spoj" pošto je znao da æe morati
odslušati žalopojku, no tip - taj Moldavac - uèinio mu se toliko
izgubljen i tužan da je naposljetku ipak pristao.
Pozdrav na rumunjskom. "Dalje æe forsirati hrvatski", odluèi
Mitu stežuæi Moldavèevu ruku.
"I»- upita. "Pa kako je u Hrvatskoj?»
Reèe da su radili na moru. On i grupa azerbejdžanskih
radnika.
"Paraglider centar u Grobniku, najveæi u Europi» - objasni na
lošem hrvatskom. IBUK ih je, reèe, povukao na grube radove,
njega i još pet Nigerijaca.
"Pa? Bit æe terenskih dodataka?»
Moldavac namjesti facu: -"Veæ mjesecima ne plaæaju ni
prekovremene sate, plaæe kasne i stalno nam nešto odbijaju.
Kod vas?»
"Shopping centar u Luèkom je pri kraju. Ali ja sam na
bolovanju...»
"Èuo sam. Skinsi?»-upita Moldavac.Mitu kimnu. "I mene su
ganjali prije par mjeseci, ali je sluèajno nabasala policija» -
reèe. "I znaš šta su mi rekli?»
Mitu naèuli uši.
"Rekli su da im je baš žao što su se pojavili...Ali, sutra su
prosvjedi stranih radnika na Trgu Bana...» - ne može se
prisjetiti punog imena trga.
"Jelaèiæa» - pomogne mu Mitu "Bana Jelaèiæa».
"Doði. Bit æe nas oko 10 tisuæa.»
Mitu neodreðeno odmahnu glavom. Shvati napokon da su u
They chased me also a few months ago, but the police
suddenly came across he says And do you know what they
said?
Mitu pricked up his ears.
- They said that they are really sorry that they showed
up...However, foreign workers demonstration take place
tomorrow on Ban...-he couldn't remember the full name of
the square.
- Jelacic square Mitu helped him Ban Jelacic square.
- Come. There will be around 10 thousand of us.
Mitu vaguely nodded. Suddenly he realized that they are in
the coffee shop for a half an hour, but the waiter is not
coming. At this moment Mitu decided to defiantly leave the
coffee shop: he couldn't stand waiters pretending that they
don't exist.
- Surely I'll come to the square he thought saying good bye
to Moldavian.
After he came back to the sheds, he spread the newspaper.
Walking actually limping, he managed to read the article
about a new regulation that makes piloting oil tankers trough
Adriatic mandatory. “Zagreb, 16. June 2010.” says in subtitle
“the date that will enter the history of care about Croatian
sea”.
- Ah he thought If they only did that with the Black sea,
today we would have tourism there. But they didn't...
In that moment it started raining; big, thin drops carried by a
warm wind. The former was waiting for him in his shed. The
trucks were working inside the village.
- Get dressed he says we are going to Osijek-Zagreb
highway.
- But, I'm on sickleave, boss!
- Sickleave, ha? We're stuck on that part by Strizivojna, and
you, Mitu, know very well that we crossed all dead lines. And
you'll ask on the 1st where's your paycheck, ha?
- Now shut up and jump into the truck!
TWO WATERS
“They can drop dead of envy”, Marina said as she contentedly
powdered her nose. She was purring all over the place,
spreading happiness over the sunlit apartment in the Zagreb
area of Kajzerica, feeling fulfilled and content with herself.
“I've netted such a guy like no woman in Zagreb will ever
have. Who cares if he is a Hungarian. My Csaba is handsome,
young and already a director of Viz val Szykra Multywater
Company”, she thought with reason. She glanced at the front
page of the Croatian edition of New Musical Express with the
great black star Macy Gray. Macy was dressed in some kind of
bizarre fur, posing under the significant headline: “The Black
Pearl in Zagreb!” Marina kissed the picture and silently spoke
to herself: “The Black Pearl!” She had been wishing for this
concert to happen for seven years, and here it was, at the end
of her tour the Pearl decided to visit the 21st member state of
22
kafiæu veæ pola sata, no konobar im i dalje ne prilazi. U taj se
èas Mitu revoltirano odluèi pokupiti van: nije mogao podnijeti
to što se konobari prave kao da ih nema.
Naravno da æe doæi na Trg - pomisli opraštajuæi se s
Moldavcem.
Po povratku u barake, raširi novine. Koraèajuæi, zapravo, prije
šepesajuæi, uspije još doèitati èlanak o uvoðenju obavezne
pilotaže naftnih tankera kroz Jadran. "Zagreb, 16. lipanj
2010", piše u podnaslovu, "Datum koji æe uæi u povijest po
brizi za hrvatsko more".
"Eh» - pomisli "Da su barem tako postupili s Crnim morem,
danas bi i tamo bilo turizma. Ali nisu...»
U to poèe kiša; debele, prorijeðene kapi nošene toplim
vjetrom. U baraci doèeka ga predradnik, šef smjene. Kamioni
su radili u krugu naselja.
"Oblaèi se» - reèe mu "Ide se na autoput Osijek - Zagreb.»
"Ali, na bolovanju sam šefe!»
"Kakvo bolovanje, vidi ga! Zapelo na dionici kod Strizivojne, a
ti, Mitu, dobro znaš da smo odavno probili sve rokove. A pitat
æeš prvoga šta je s plaæom, ha?»
"Ma šta zijaš, uskaèi, bogati, u kamion!»
DVIJE VODE
“Mogu mi stavit' soli na rep”, rekla je Marina dok je zadovoljno
pudrala nos. Prela je na sve strane, rasipala sreæu po
osunèanom stanu na zagrebaèkoj Kajzerici, osjeæala
ispunjenost i zadovoljstvo samom sobom. “Upecala sam
takvog frajera…kakvog niko nikad neæe imati u Zagrebu, baš
me briga što je Maðar. Moj Csaba je zgodan, mlad, a veæ
direktor Viz val Szykra MultywaterCompany-a”, mislila je
opravdano. Bacila je pogled na naslovnu stranicu hrvatskog
izdanja New Musical Expressa s velikom crnom zvijezdom
Macy Gray. Macy se u nekakvom bizarnom krznu koèoperila
ispod znakovitog naslova: “Crna perla u Zagrebu!” Marina je
poljubila sliku, tiho ponovivši: “Crna perla!” Veæ sedam
godina priželjkuje taj koncert i evo ga, perla je pri kraju
evropske turneje odluèila posjetiti i 21. èlanicu EU-a, slavnu i,
kako to novinari The Independenta ocjeniše, “gospodarski i
kulturološki nadiruæu i nadolazeæu Hrvatsku”. Takvu zemlju
više ne zaobilaze ni najveæe zvijezde.
Marina je upravo doktorirala na prestižnom postdiplomskom
studiju Evropske unije na odsjeku Modernih gospodarskih
t o k o va . J e d a n o d g o s t u j u æ i h p r e d a va è a b i o j e i
tridesetdvogodišnji Csaba Fekety koji je prošle 2009,
proglašen za najuspješnijeg mladog managera u Evropskoj
uniji. Csabi je krenulo s vodom. Budimpešta, koja je imala
jednu od najogavnijih i najotrovnijih gradskih voda u svijetu
bila je njegova zlatna žila. 2005. krenuo je s malom
punionicom prirodne negazirane vode u obližnjem seocetu
Szent Andreiu, opskrbio cijelu Peštu, potom Budim i
predgraða, da bi u daljnje dvije godine postao maðarski kralj
vode koju je istodobno i cijela Evropa oèajnièki potraživala na
23
the EU, the famous and as the reporters of The Independent
said, “economically and culturally emerging Croatia ”. Such a
country is not ignored even by the greatest stars.
Marina had just obtained her Ph.D. at the prestigious
postgraduate study of the European Union in the department
of Modern Economic Trends. One of the visiting lecturers was
the thirty-two year old Csaba Fekety who was nominated as
the most successful young manager in the European Union in
2009. Csaba started out with water. Budapest, which had one
of the most disgusting and poisonous municipal water
systems in the world turned out to be his vein of gold. In 2005
he set out with a small business filling bottles with natural,
uncarbonated water in the proximate village of Szent Andrea,
he supplied entire Budapest and then Budim and the suburbs
with potable water. In the following two years he became the
Hungarian King of Water whom also the entire rest of Europe
desperately sought on the international market. He was the
quickest and also his water had the best taste. He called it Viz
val Szykra or “Water with a spark”, because somewhere in the
taste there was something like a spark that gave an especially
refreshing taste to the water. No one knew what the secret
was, except Csabos water experts who he found somewhere
at the far east of Hungary while he was nearing the end of his
studies. Csaba realized the business potential of the future
and presently produces hectoliters of water with a spark and
also sells brains at large European studies of economy and
management. This is where Marina fits in. She listened to
Csabos lecture in Zagreb with special interest and posed lucid
questions that baffled Csaba. He immediately saw that this
little dark-haired girl loved water.
They went out to the Upper Town to have dinner, and Fekety
could not stop explaining about water and its flow. Marina,
shrewd and lively, was gazing at him with her big eyes and
soon showed him how more intelligent she was than him. She
bedded him and swiped him from some rich Belgian woman
who is now probably crying and grieving in cold and distant
Bruxelles. “Nagyon jo Csaba!”, the shrewd young doctor of
economic sciences would say to Csabo. However, Marina's joy
had an economic basis to it. It so happened that Marina was
accidentally an owner of an average size of land on the
northern side of Sljeme where one of her close friends, a
previous lover of hers, who was a speleologist by vocation
had discovered an interesting thing a splendid, small
subterranean spring that brought water from unbelievably
cold and dark depths. Chemical research had shown that this
water from the foothills of Sljeme had the most minerals and
magnesium from all the waters in the area. Marina had
obtained a concession and all she needed was a strong
distributor to conquer the European market. “Csabin Viz val
Szykra!”, was the thought that illuminated the well-groomed
head of our resourceful heroine. Love and business. Sex and
money. Water and the market … But first, the Macy Gray
24
svjetskom tržištu. Bio je najbrži, a voda mu je imala najbolji
okus. Nazvao ju je Viz val Szykra iliti “Voda s iskrom”, jer se
negdje u okusu pritajilo nešto nalik na iskru što je vodi davalo
posebno osvježavajuæi ton. Nitko nije znao u èemu je tajna
osim Csabinih vodenih eksperata koje je još za vrijeme studija
išèeprkao negdje na samom krajnjem istoku Maðarske.
Csaba je shvatio gdje je biznis buduænosti i danas proizvodi
hektolitre vode s iskrom i još usput prodaje pamet na velikim
evropskim studijima ekonomije i managmenta. Marina se tu
baš fino nacrtala. Slušala je Csabino predavanje u Zagrebu s
posebnim oduševljenjem i postavljala lucidna pitanja koja su
zbunjivala Csabu. Odmah je uvidio da ova mala crnka voli
vodu.
Izašli su na Gornji grad na veèeru, Fekety nije mogao prestati
objašnjavati vodu i njene tokove. Marina, onako lukava i
vrckava, gledala ga je svojim velikim oèima i ubrzo mu
pokazala koliko je inteligentnija od njega. Spremila ga je u
krevet i preotela jednoj imuænoj Belgijanki koja sad valjda
plaèe i narièe u dalekom i hladnom Briselu. “Nagyon jo
Csaba!”, rekla bi Csabi lukava zagrebaèka doktorica evropskih
ekonomskih znanosti. Meðutim, Marinino veselje imalo je i
svoju ekonomsku nadgradnju. Nekako se dogodilo da je
Marina sasvim sluèajno bila u posjedu jednog grunta
osrednje velièine na samoj sjevernoj strani Sljemena gdje je
jedan njen bliski prijatelj, negdašnji ljubavnik, inaèe
speleolog po zanimanju, naišao na zanimljivo otkriæe krasnu,
malu ponornicu što na svjetlo dana iznosi vodu iz
nevjerojatnih hladnih i tamnih dubina. Kemijska istraživanja
su pokazala: podsljemenska voda ima najviše minerala i
magnezija od svih voda na svijetu. Marina je ishodila
koncesiju i samo joj je trebao jaki distributer za osvajanje
evropskog tržišta. “Csabin Viz val Szykra!”, svjetlila je misao u
poèešljanoj glavici naše domišljate junakinje. Ljubav i posao.
Sex i novac. Voda i tržište… No, prvo koncert Macy Gray koji je
vrlo važan za daljni tok pripovijesti. Csaba, naime, još ništa ne
zna o Marininom otkriæu, premda nije tako naivan da ne vidi
ono što veæ cijeli svijet zna: Hrvatska je gospodarski hit
zadnje tri godine. To je, kako opjevava The Economist u svom
zadnjem broju, “jedna suluda zemlja gdje rastu najbolje
kobasice, kuleni, pršuti, vina, masline i gdje domaæi
gospodarski poduzetnici znaju predstaviti, kreirati i
promovirati proizvod”. “Svi kvalitetni proizvodi iz ove male
južnoevropske zemlje, èije se gospodarstvo tako rapidno širi i
povezuje sa svim èlanicama Evropske Unije”, kako reèe
Guardian, “su zaštiæeni i na svjetskom tržištu ne idu nigdje
bez važnih svjetskih strukovnih titula”. Krenimo redom:
“Famous Slavonian Kulen from Croatia” sa grand prix
nagradom za 2100. na Sajmu svjetske kobasice u Toulouseu,
“Dalmatian prshut” s Velikom nagradom “Mediteranska
strpljivost” s Izložbe mesne umjetnosti u La Valleti, “Šibenska
maslina” s Grand prix titulom VII Festivala mudrog povrtlara
na viškoj Komiži, voæna rakija “Neretljanski gusar” s pet
zvjezdica na Sajmu agruma i dodatno obraðenog voæa u
concert which is very important for the rest of this story.
Namely, Csaba doesn't not yet know anything about Marina's
discovery although he is not as naive as not to see what all the
world already knows: Croatia is an economic hit the last three
years. It is, as the Economist stated in the last issue, “a crazy
country where the best sausages and other meat products
are made, wines, olives, and where domestic entrepreneurs
are capable of presenting, creating and promoting a product
”. “All quality products of this small southern European
country whose economy is so rapidly expanding and
connecting with all the member states of the European Union
”, as the Guardian puts it, “are protected and do not venture
out to the world markets without important international
expert titles ”. Let us list them in sequence: “Famous
Slavonian Kulen from Croatia” with Grand Prix award from the
2100. World Sausage Fair in Toulouse, “Dalmatian prshut”
with the Grand Prize “Mediterranean patience ” from the
Exhibition of Butchery Art in La Valleta, “The Šibenik Olive ”
with Grand prix title of the VIIth Festival of the Wise Gardener
at Komiža on the island Vis, fruit brandy “the Neretva Pirate ”
with five stars at the Fruit products Fair in Marseilles, “Pharos
wine - Red Miracle” was the greatest discovery at the World
Wine Days in San Diego, California.… Csabo was right in
assuming that this was by no means an end to the miracles of
Croatia, but in his intelligible life he was still far from a
veritable comprehension of the word 'miracle'.
The Concert in The Factory was covered by many
international media because Macy decided to spend a
vacation in Zagorje after her tour. Horses, riding, nature,
greenery, strukli and all those funny, colorful castles, the
stench of decaying feudalism, legends of the peasant's leader
Matija Gubec, all this will serve Gray, as the media reported it,
to "reset her concert computer". The concert began, and
somewhere near the end Gray offered a song to the audience
which she dedicated to water because there was ever less of
it in the world and it is so, as "watery" Macy said, "beneficent
and life-giving, refreshing and all"... She put Carver's poem
about two waters that meet to music, and sang it to the
crazed audience. for encore, she once again sang “Where two
waters meet ” and she was gone … gone somewhere where
black pearls go after a concert. Marina was blissful. No one
had sang of water to her this way before. It seemed that the
coarse voice of the black pearl was the source of waterfalls of
pure sincere innocent water. The Ph.D. kept on humming
“Where two waters meet ” and again “ Where two waters
meet ”, and endlessly “ Where two waters meet ”…
And that was it. This was the miracle. Marina saw the light as
only a domestic entrepreneur can see the light. She took the
rich Hungarian to the land that very night and her poured
water on him all night long. The young man was baffled until
h e t a s t e d t h e w a t e r h i m s e l f. “ B e s z e l n y C s a b a ,
beszelny…szykra…val szykra…Mi dvoje viz kiraly!?”, the petite
25
Marseillesu, “Faros vine - Red Miracle” bio je najveæe otkriæe
Svjetskih dana vina u San Diegu, California.…Csabi se
opravdano èinilo da to nije kraj hrvatskih èuda, no u svom
inteligibilnom životu još uvijek je bio daleko od pravog
poimanja rijeèi èudo.
Koncert u Tvornici pratili su èak i mnogi svjetski mediji jer je
Macy nakon turneje odluèila provesti odmor u Zagorju. Konji,
jahanje, priroda, zelenilo, štrukli, svi oni smiješni, šaroliki
dvorci, zadah ocvalog feudalizma, legende o seljaèkom voði
Matiji Gupcu, sve æe to Grayovici poslužiti kao moguænost,
kako su to duhovito i spretno sroèili novinari Zagorskog
nezavisnog lista, “za resetiranje svog koncertnog
kompjutera”. Koncert je poèeo i negdje pri kraju Grayeva je
publici ponudila pjesmu koju posveæuje vodi jer je na svijetu
ima sve manje, a tako je….tako je, reèe “vodena” Macy,
“blagotvorna i oživotvorujuæa i okrepljujuæa i sve”... Uglazbila
je onu Carverovu poemu o dvije vode koje se spajaju i
otpjevala je zaluðenoj publici. Na bis je još jednom otpjevala
“Gdje se dvije vode spajaju” i otišla…negdje gdje veæ crne
perle odlaze nakon koncerta. Marina je sjala od sreæe. Nitko
joj još nije ovako opjevao vodu. Èinilo se kao da iz hrapavog
glasa crne perle ispadaju slapovi èiste iskrene nevine vode.
Doktorica znanosti stalno je pjevušila “gdje se dvije vode
spajaju” i opet “gdje se dvije vode spajaju”, do unedogled
“gdje se dvije vode spajaju”…
I to je to. To je to èudo. Marina je progledala kako samo
progledati može jedan domaæi poduzetnik. Otrèala je još iste
noæi s bogatim Maðarom na grunt i zalijevala ga cijelu noæ
svojom vodom. Ovom ništa nije bilo jasno sve dok nije i
okusio vodu. “Beszelny Csaba, beszelny…szykra…val
szykra…Mi dvoje viz kiraly!?”, natucala je nešto na
maðarskom mala Zagrepèanka. Da njena je voda posjedovala
takoðer onu iskru. Tajna je otkrivena…Ljubav, Ugarska,
Hrvatska, dvije vode, iste da istije ne mogu biti, spojene…u
cijeli svijet….ha, ha, ha…..Marina se smijala ko neka
æudoredna vještica od koje nitko ne može oèekivati nikakvu
zloæu. Ona ljubi èovjeka iste vodene grupe. To je danas tako
rijetko. To si ni nilski konji ne mogu priuštiti. Vodi je krenulo
nizbrdo, baš kako treba. Csaba je uložio u hrvatsku, toènije
podsljemensku vodu i s Marininom tvrtkom “Vodeni cvijet
d.o.o.” udvostruèio vodeno kraljevstvo na svjetskom marketu
vode za piæe.
Csaba je uz najveæu moguæu pompu oženio lukavu,
prepredenu crnku. Èak dva vjenèanja. Jedno u Szent Mathias
crkvi na Budimu i drugo u zagrebaèkoj katedrali uz ogromne
proteste domaæih zelenih i seljaèkih aktivista iz “Zelene
omèe”, “Èuvara voda” i “Seljaèke zadruge M. Gubec”. Aktivisti
su bili protiv iskorištavanja Sljemena traživši da se Sljeme
proglasi Nacionalnim parkom. U pomoæ su im došli i
“zelenaši” iz ostalih zemalja u regiji ne bi li pritisli hrvatsku
vladu na zabranu uništavanja Sljemena i Zagorja koje su
Zagreb girl stuttered in Hungarian. Yes, her water also
possessed that same spark The secret was revealed … Love,
Hungary, Croatia, two waters, couldn't be more the same,
connected... into the whole world... ha, ha, ha…..Marina was
laughing like a benign with who could never harm anyone.
She loved a man from the same water group. That was so
rare today. Even hippopotamuses couldn't afford that. Water
flows downhill, just as it should. Csaba invested into Croatia,
more precisely, in sub-Sljeme water and with Marina's
company “Water Flower” doubled his water kingdom in the
world market of potable water.
With the greatest possible pomp, Csaba married the shrewd,
cunning dark haired woman. There were two weddings, in
fact. One in the Szent Mathias church in Budim and the other
in the Zagreb cathedral with great protestations from the
domestic green ad peasant activists of the “Green Noose ”,
“Water Protectors ” and the “peasant Commune M. Gubec”.
The activists were against using Sljeme asking that Sljeme be
turned into a national park. They were joined by the "greens"
from other countries in the region trying to exert a pressure
on the Croatian government to forbid the devastation of
Sljeme and Zagorje which were studded by water pumps that
messed up the landscape. “But water is our great joy and a
chance for our small economy”, President Božo Kovaèeviæ told
them, showing statistics that proved that Croatia had become
the greatest exporter of water to the rest of the world besides
Hungary. A strong water lobby ruled the political scene of
Europe, and had absolutely, with twice underlined “a”, had
supported the “water strategy ” of Croatia, even if they would
have to, as the Business Review put it, “drain the last swamp
”. And there was that spark, for which many self-styled
analysts said it had aphrodisiacal power, the shares of the
“Water Flower ” besides the devoted Hungarian distributor
and business partner performed the biggest leap on Wall
Street in September 2010. The “Croatian water sensation”,
the New York publications “Business weekly” and “New York
Times” wrote. “No one can stop us now ”, Privredni Vjesnik
wrote, glorifying the success on the greatest stock market in
the world.
Croatia soon became a Mecca for workers from Africa and
Asia. Somalians, Pakistanis, Afghans and Nigerians arrived
infusing the Croatian water industry with their raw strength.
While tribal wars for water were being waged in their
countries, Croatia was overflowing everywhere, it was
blessed with the best quality water, it has become a fountain
of profit that even the "Asian Tigers" would not be ashamed
of. Soon, in Zagreb, sponsored by petite dark-haired Marina,
the first "Faculty of Water and Mineral Economy" was to open.
The most talented students all the world over came to study
about water sciences, the processes of obtaining potable
water, discovering potable water, preventing water pollution,
etc. … all this in Zagreb which journalists crowned the water
26
naprosto bile prorešetane vodenim crpilištima što su
nagrðivale krajolik. “Ali voda je naša velika radost i šansa za
naše malo gospodarstvo”, govorio im je premijer Božo
Kovaèeviæ pokazujuæi statistike na kojima je Hrvatska nakon
Maðarske najveæi izvoznik vode u svijetu. Uostalom, jaki
vodeni loby što je vladao politièkom scenom Evrope
apsolutno je, s dvostruko podebljanim “a”, podržao “vodenu
strategiju” Hrvatske, pa makar, kako je to sroèio Poslovni
tjednik, “isušili i posljednju kaljužu”. Još s tom iskrom za koju
su mnogi samozvani analitièari vode tvrdili da ima
afrodizijaèku moæ, dionice “Vodenog cvijeta” uz odanog
maðarskog distributera i poslovnog partnera napravile su
najveæi skok na Wall streetu u rujnu 2010. “Croatian water
sensation”, pisali su njujorški “Business weekly” i “New York
Times”. “Nitko nas ne može zaustaviti”, pisao je Privredni
Vjesnik, likujuæi nad uspjehom na najveæoj burzi.
Ubrzo Hrvatska postaje meka za radnike iz Afrike i Azije.
Somalijci, Pakistanci, Afganistanci, Nigerijci stižu, nadolaze,
plave hrvatsku vodenu industriju svojom nepatvorenom
radnom energijom. Dok se u njihovim zemljama vode
plemenski, etnièki i vjerski ratovi za vodu, Hrvatska pršti na
sve strane, Hrvatska leži na najkvalitetnijoj vodi, Hrvatska
doživljava vodoskok profita kakvog se ne bi sramili ni “Azijski
tigrovi”.
Uskoro se u Zagrebu, pod pokroviteljstvom male crne Marine,
otvara i prvi “Fakultet vodenog i mineralnog gospodarstva” u
svijetu. Najtalentiraniji studenti iz cijelog svijeta dolaze uèiti o
vodenim znanostima, procesima dobivanja pitke vode,
otkrivanju pitke vode, o oèuvanju od zagaðivanja voda…Sve
to u Zagrebu kojeg su turistièki novinari proglasili vodenim
srcem svijeta.
Csaba je u zagrljaju držao malu Marinu i plovio polako i lako
po tihoj površini Jadrana. Gledajuæi ta debela i nepregledna
prostranstva vode nije mu bilo svejedno što se na nekim
krajevima svijeta krvari i gine za vodu. “Eh, Marina kad mogli
more Adriatikusz preraditi u pitka voda, ja bio najsretniji
ember na svijetu. Toliko vode, a toliko patnja zbog
nje!?Absurd to takav veliki absurd…meni nejasno!?”
“Voliš li me Csaba?”
“Oooo Marina, szeretlek naravno!”
“Onda æemo Csaba pretvoriti more u pitku vodu, cijeli Jadran,
ljudi æe se kupati u èistom zlatu!”
“Ali kako ti èudo jedna, kako?”
“Kad emberek ožedne dovoljno ko ti i ja, kad ožedne za
ljubavlju ko ti i ja, kad toliko ožedne da se smrtno uplaše žeði,
oni doæi na naše èisto more i piti, Csaba i spojiti se tu ko što se
sve vode spajaju.”
“Oni docsi…emberek docsi….oni docsi…kad ožedne!”
Negdje tamo duboko ispod njih u tamnim dubinama, na
samom dnu dva su se morska ježa nježno pomakla.
Nenadano i odjednom sunèeva zraka razbije dubinu i za tren
capital of the world.
Csaba held petite Marina in his embrace and sailed slowly
over the calm Adriatic surface. Looking at these limitless
expanses of water, he did not feel indifferent that in other
parts of the world people were bleeding and dying for water.
“Eh, Marina if we could turn the Adriatic into potable water, I
would be the happiest man in the world. so much water and
so much suffering for it!? It is absurd, such a big absurd … I
don't understand it!?”
“Do you love me Csaba?”
“Oooo Marina, szeretlek, of course!”
“Then we will change the sea to potable water, Csaba, the
entire Adriatic, people will bathe in pure gold!”
“But how, you miracle, you? How??”
“My darling, when they become thirsty as you and I am, when
they become thirsty for love, and become frightened of thirst,
then they will come to our pure sea and drink, Csaba, and
meet just as waters meet.”
“They will come, my darling, they will come... when they
become thirsty!”
Somewhere deep below them, in the dark depths, at the
bottom of the sea, two sea urchins gently moved. Suddenly
and all at once, a ray of sunlight illuminated the depths and
shone on them for a moment.
Saša Radusin
Emperor's new clothes
Just ride along the uphill road above the cathedral, among
the tycoon villas bulit on the slopes that have until recently
been shaded by the gigantic plane-trees, then further north,
alongiside the dried-up beds of Sljeme streams. Your eyes
could hardly take a relief from all those pink urban villas in
rows, with garish façades and few stone lions that seem to
stand guard over the concrete parking-lots. And that metal
gleam of the polished limousines whose noisy alarms often
scare the Mumleks, either at midnight or in broad daylight,
and most often early in the morning when a bird having lost
its way in search of plane-trees mistakenly lands on the hot
metal sheet and then, scorched by the heat, starts fluttering
its wings amidst the annoying noise of the burglar alarm. New
users of the villas have been trying for quite some time to
eradicate them with air rifles or pistols, depending on what
they prefer keeping in their bedclothes chests. But they do
not want to eradicate only the birds. It was one of those
indifferent days when Miljenko, the eldest member of the
family Mumlek, stumbled upon a shot cat, right under his
balcony overlooking the rear wall of a new villa. It was a
bright sunny morning the whole May was nice when
Miljenko went out with a bowl of milk in his hand in order to
feed his cat some Whiskas. And then, faced with the stiffened
27
ih osvjetli.
Saša Radusin
Carevo novo ruho
Samo se provezite cestom uz brijeg iznad Prvostolnice, meðu
tajkunare što su nikle na kaskadama koje su još donedavno
skrivale sjene džinovskih platana, pa dalje, na sjever, uz
usahla korita podsljemenskih potoka, vaš pogled teško da æe
uspjeti predahnuti od svih tih ružièastih urbanih vila u nizu, s
napadnim proèeljima i pokojim laviæem koji kao da drži mrtvu
stražu ispred betoniranih platoa za parking. Pa onda i taj
metalni odsjaj lakiranih limuzina èiji buèni alarmni sustavi
tako èesto prestraše Mumlekove, bilo u po noæi ili bijela dana,
a najèešæe rano izjutra kad neka od zalutalih ptica u potrazi za
platanama zabunom sleti na vruæi lim i onda, kao oprljena,
zalepeæe krilima uslijed živèane protuprovalne sirene. Novi
korisnici vila veæ ih duže vrijeme nastoje iskorjeniti
luftericama ili pištoljima, ovisno o tome što radije drže doma
u sanducima za posteljinu. Ali i ne samo ptièice. Bio je jedan
od onih ravnodušnih dana kada je najstariji Mumlek,
Miljenko, natrapao na ustrijeljenog maèka, tik ispod svog
balkona koji gleda na stražnji zid nove vile. Bilo je vedro,
osunèano jutro - baš kao što je i cijeli taj maj bio lijep - kada je
Miljenko s tanjuriæem mlijeka u ruci izišao nahraniti maèka
Viskasom. I onda, suoèen sa skutrenim truplom, ustuknuo
nazad u trpezariju gdje ga je doèekala Violeta razrogaèenih
oèiju.
- Miljenko, pobogu... - reèe mu žena.
- Ubiše maèka - konstatirao je nekako nemušto za èovjeka
koji je upravo ostao bez maèka. - Veæ se ohladio, siroæe, pod
balkonom - doda istresajuæi mlijeko s Viskasom u lavabo. -
Valjda se nije muèio.
- Kojeg? Bucu?
- Nekog treæeg...
žena odahnu s kriškom kruha pod zubalom. Bila je u
godinama kada je trebalo izbjegavati stresove.
- Prvo su sasjekli platane jer im je smetalo ono bijelo perje što
cvijeta u proljeæe, pa su rastjerali ptièice i sve zdušno
izbetonirali, a sada im se maèak zamjerio - probilo je iz
Miljenka tog jutra. - Šta je slijedeæe? Ti i ja, Viola, posljednji
mohikanci!
Zatim se malo vrzmao po kuhinji, od stola do lavaboa i
obrnuto, zabacujuæi noge postrance, kao da je na brodu. žena
je suosjeæala: cijeli su život proveli ovdje, na brijegu, i nikada
im nije palo napamet diæi barem i potkrovlje, a kamoli cijeli
kat. Nekada, u vrijeme Markoviæa, mogli su ga diæi kao od šale
i sada, gledajuæi kako nièu sve te tajkunare, toliko je puta
pomislila kako bi sin Pavo mogao komotno gore stanovati, na
katu, a jednom, kad se oženi i dobije djecu, svakog bi jutra
unuèad silazila k njima na èuvanje. Samo da su digli kat, ali,
body, he backed away into the dining-room where Violeta
confronted him with her eyes wide open.
-Miljenko, for God's sake… - said his wife.
-They've killed the cat concluded Miljenko somehow
awkwardly for a man who has just lost his cat. He has already
grown cold, poor fellow, under the balcony he added
dumping milk with Whiskas in the sink.
-I hope he didn't feel any pain.
-What cat? Buco?
-Some other cat…
His wife had a sigh of relief with a slice of bread in her teeth.
She was at an age when one should avoid stress.
-First they cut down the plane-trees because they were
inconvenienced by those white feathers that bloom in the
spring. Then they scared off all the birds and covered
everything with concrete. And now they've come to dislike
cats exploded Miljenko that morning. What's next? You and
me, Viola, the last of the Mohicans!
He was hanging about the kitchen for a while, going from the
table to the sink and back again, staggering as if being on a
ship. His wife sympathized with him. They've spent all their
life here, on the hill, and they never thought of building an
attic, let alone the whole floor. In the old days, under
Markoviæ, they could have easily built it. Watching all those
tycoon villas popping up, it crossed her mind many times that
her son Pavo could have lived on the first floor with his wife.
His children would have come downstairs every morning to
spend the day with their grandparents. If only they had built
that floor, but they didn't. The last of the Mohicans, as
Miljenko would say in those retirement days when he was
overcome by bitterness.
-Listen he continued slowly regaining his self-possession
after having felt his heart sputter don't say a word to Pavo
because he would go crazy. I know how sensitive he is about
animals. If he notices something, we'll tell him that the cat
was run over by the car. Why not? There's usually a lot of
traffic here, accidents happen… I mean, it's just a cat, right?
Violeta just raised her eyebrows. Since a block of flats was
erected in front of their house, there has been a chronic lack
of daylight in the kitchen. They have been dozing in semi-
darkness, fumbling for the things they left in the room last
night. Their son would scold them for not switching on the
light, but they both considered that a sin. Do you really want
it to burn since morning they replied in astonishment cursing
the building inspectors who, for years, have been turning a
deaf ear to their calls to come to the hill overlooking the
cathedral and see that pink mess on the slopes. After all, their
son told them long ago nobody would come. Use dynamite
he sometimes advised them although he didn't really mean it.
But the Mumleks hoped that the inspector would eventually
show up, with a briefcase under his arm, young and well-
built, a real athlete. That is how they imagined those from the
state inscpectorate who issued demolition orders for illegal
buildings.
28
eto, nisu. Posljednji mohikanci - kao što bi Miljenko rekao u
onim penzionerskim danima kad bi ga obuzela gorèina.
- Èuj - poèeo je sada nešto pribranijim glasom pošto je osjetio
srce kako mu trokira - O ovome ni rijeèi Pavi jer ima da poludi
ako èuje, znaš koliko je osjetljiv kad su životinje u pitanju. Ako
nešto primjeti, reæi æemo da je maèka klepio auto, zašto da
ne? Ovdje je ionako prometno, svašta se dešava, mislim,
maèak više ili manje...shvaæaš?
Violeta je samo nakosila obrve. Otkada su im digli zgradu
ispred kuæe, u kuhinji je kronièno nedostajalo dnevne
svjetlosti pa su æorili u polumraku, više pipajuæi po nahoðenju
od sinoæ gdje su i što ostavili. Sin bi ih izgrdio što ne pale
svjetlo, ali oboje su to smatrali grijehom. - Zar od ujutro da
gori - snebivali su se i proklinjali državne inspektore koji se
veæ godinama oglušuju na njihove pozive da se popnu na
brijeg, iznad Prvostolnice i da vide taj ružièasti džumbus na
kaskadama. Sin im je, uostalom, davno rekao da nitko neæe
doæi. - Dinamit - katkada bi ih posavjetovao, mada nije mislio
ozbiljno. Ali oni, Mumlekovi, nekako su nadali da æe se
inspektor veæ pojaviti, s aktovkom pod mišicom, mlad i
skladno graðen, pravi atleta - tako su si zamišljali one iz
državnog inspektorata, one koji izdaju naloge za rušenje
bespravnih podignutih katova.
- I pojaèaj taj tranzistor - trznuo ju je Miljenko iz zbrkanih misli
dok je tražio ašovèiæ i neku zgodnu krpu u koju bi umotao
maèka, pokoj mu duši, prije nego ga frkne u rupu, zapravo u
rupetinu pošto je onaj pod balkonom, Buco, bio golem maèor.
"Slušate podnevnu kroniku Hrvatskog radija (...)
Dobar dan poštovani slušatelji,
kako smo javljali u našim prijašnjim informativnim emisijama,
kasno sinoæ uspješno je okonèan plenum najužeg vodstva
naše najjaèe politièke stranke usvajanjem radnog dokumenta
koji bi, kako je istaknuto, trebao poslužiti kao smjernica Vladi
u daljnjim pregovorima Hrvatske oko postupnog približavanja
Europskoj Uniji. U završnoj rijeèi Predsjednik je naveo
nužnost integriranja u novi europski poredak, ali - istaknuo je
Predsjednik - ne i po svaku cijenu, nego naèinom i ritmom u
skladu s hrvatskim nacionalnim interesima. U dokumentu je,
nadalje, izraženo èvrsto stajalište najjaèe hrvatske stranke
oko nekih strateških ciljeva koji æe se, za dan ili dva, predoèiti
Vladi, a poslužit æe kao platforma s koje bi trebali kretati sve
buduæe aktivnosti prema Uniji do listopada 2010 kada æe..."
- Ma koja crna platforma - Miljenko se nije mogao suzdržati,
no Violeta ga utiša s kažiprsom pod nosom.
"...do listopada 2010. kada æe Unija pokrenuti novi krug
pregovora s tzv. južnoeuropskim krugom država, meðu
kojima je i naša zemlja..."
- Balkan, što ne kaže: "Balkan" - promumlja Miljenko.
- Ta šuti, pobogu - obrecnu se žena.
"...Predsjednik je u završnoj rijeèi izrazio svoje duboko
uvjerenje da æe Hrvati, kao uostalom i svaki put dosada,
prepoznati znaèaj ovog dokumeta, njegovu dalekosežnost
što se tièe boljitka Lijepe naše te stvaranja realnih preduvjeta
za ravnopravno ukljuèivanje u Uniju. Predsjednik je, meðu
29
-And turn up the radio Miljenko roused his wife from her
confused thoughts while he was searching for a spade and
some nice cloth to wrap the cat in - poor cat, God rest his soul
- before dumping it in the hole. Actually, he had to dig a big
hole since Buco, the cat under the balcony, was really huge.
“You are listening to the afternoon news of the Croatian
Radio… Good afternoon, dear listeners. As we have already
reported in our previous news programmes, the plenary
session of the top-ranking leaders of our strongest political
party was successfully brought to an end late last night. As
stated, a working document has been adopted which should
serve the governement as a guideline on further talks about
Croatia's gradual joining the EU. In the closing speech the
president recognized the necessity of integrating into the
new European order, but he pointed out not at all costs. The
mode and pace of the changes must be in accordance with
the Croatian national interests. Furthermore, the document
expresses firm political views of the strongest Croatian party
on some strategic goals which will be presented to the
government in a day or two. They will serve as a platform of
all the future actions in dealing with the EU until October 2010
when…”
-What bloody platform?! Miljenko couldn't control himself
but Violeta silenced him by putting her index finger under his
nose.
“… until October 2010 when the European Union will start the
next round of talks with the so called circle of southern
European countries that Croatia is a part of…“
-The Balkans! Why didn't he say the Balkans? grumbled
Miljenko.
-Be quiet, for God's sake snapped his wife.
“In his closing speech the president expressed his firm belief
that the Croats will recognize, like so many times before, the
importance of that document, its far-reaching effects on the
prosperitiy of Our Beautiful Homeland and the creation of real
preconditions for joining the EU on an equal footing. Among
other things, the president said: “It is obvious there are
forces in this country that would like to take advantage of the
current recession and turn it to their own political benefit.
They would like to deepen this temporary crisis of the
Croatian economy. However, I am convinced that the
Croatian people will once again know to tell those who work
for the benefit of this country from those who, in the interest
of certain international circles, want to sell off its resources
and thus degrade our national pride said the president of the
state acting in his capacity as president of our strongest
party.”
Bravo! Miljenko exclaimed ironically and clapped his hands
while Violeta was trying attentively to discern the speaker's
words. Then she took a sip of coffee and, realizing that
Miljenko headed for the radio, she tried to persuade him to
listen to the news from beginning to end at least once.
-Be still for a minute, they might say something about the
pensions she said. Miljenko turned the radio off
30
ostalim, rekao: - Jasno je da postoje one snage u zemlji koji bi
trenutnu recesiju pokušali okrenuti u svoju uskogrudnu
politièku korist i koji bi ovu kratkotrajnu krizu kroz koje prolazi
hrvatsko gospodarstvo htjeli dodatno produbiti, no hrvatski
æe narod i ovoga puta, uvjeren sam, znati prosuditi tko u
konaènici radi na dobrobit ove zemlje, a tko za raèun
odreðenim meðunarodnih krugova želi rasprodati njezine
resurse, a time i obezvrijediti nacionalni ponos - rekao je
predsjednik države u svojstvu predsjednika naše najjaèe
stranke."
- Ma bravo - ironièno je uskliknuo Miljenko i pljesnuo
dlanovima dok je Violeta i dalje napeto razabirala spikerove
rijeèi. Gucnula je zatim kavu i kada je shvatila da Miljenko
kreæe prema tranzistoru, pokušala ga je nagovoriti da bar
jedanput doslušaju vijesti do kraja: - Miruj tren, možda æe
javiti nešto o penzijama - reèe ona, no Miljenko ga je ipak
ugasio.
- Ne mogu više slušati o ekološkim incidentima i friziranim
ciframa o porastu izvoza u prvom kvartalu - odbrusi joj
pipajuæi iza stelaža i kuhinjskih elemenata za nekom
primjerenom krpom.
- Èekaj - obrecnu se ona, ali sada tiše. - Neko je na vratima.
Miljenko se odrvenio: sluh ga je, doduše, ponešto izdao;
uopæe ponekad bi se osjeæao kao da mu je voda u ušima,
osobito u vrijeme visokog tlaka. Zato je s punom pažnjom
pratio Violetine reakcije.
- Jesu možda opet oni?
- Misliš, Jehove...
- Pa ovo nije njihova ura.
Pavo je ušao bez pozdrava. Imao je borbeni ranac preko
desnog ramena i zelenu majicu na kojoj je pisalo: "Zdrav život
svima, a ne samo njima", kada se okrenuo bljesnu
florescentni logo "Ponikve 2010".
- Jel to poèeo rat - zajedljivo je primjetio Miljenko. - Ako ideš u
šumu, pazi na krpelje po zemunicama...
- Tata, ozbiljno je. - Pavi, oèito, nije bilo do humora. - Hitna
intervencija.
- Gdje æeš sad pa ti - pitala je uzbuðeno Violeta uredujuæi na
brzinu po trpezarijskom stolu. - Da ti bacim dvije kranjske s
jajima?
- žurim. Zborno mjesto je kod Cibone. Idemo s pet autobusa,
a kod Karlovca nam se pridružuju Zeleni iz Zagorja i Slavonije.
Nema više zezanja!
- Znaèi ipak je toèno. Isušuju Jadran - komentirao je Miljenko
iz svog polumraènog ugla.
- Još gore, stari, još gore. Bageri krèe pola Mljeta, velika je
lova u igri, neki rusko-njemaèki konzorcij, šta li, grade
luksuzne hotele...
- A šta æete vi tamo? Opet pod bagere kao lani na Visu, ha?
- Vis je bio igra. Ove na Mljetu èuvaju specijalci. Luèko, tata!
Investicija od strateškog interesa, kopèaš?
Violeta i Miljenko razmijeniše poglede; nekako na spomen
specijalaca nikom više nije bilo do zezanja. Pavo je otvorio
frižider i u ranac utrpao nekoliko konzervi.
nevertheless. - Zar baš moraš iæi - prasnu Violeta. - Pa nema gdje nisi bio,
-I can no longer listen about ecological incidents and fiddled možeš propustiti bar jednu akciju, oni æe to obavit bez tebe...
statistics about the rise in exports in the first quarter he - Sad je važan svaki èovjek, masovnost, kvantiteta, u tome je
snapped back while fumbling behind the shelves and kitchen štos. Vlada non-stop govori o šaèici zelenih radikala i ako
units for a suitable cloth. Mljet uspijemo stopirati, na godinu sigurno ulazimo u Sabor!
-Wait! - she snarled, but this time in a lower voice. Miljenko na to odmahnu rukom.
-There is somebody at the door. - Osim toga, dolaze nam europski zeleni, veæ su se javili sa
Miljenko felt numb all over. True, his hearing has failed him to šentilja. Boooooog!
some extent. Sometimes he felt as if his ears had been filled - I pazite na Bucu!
with water, especially when pressure was high. That's why he - Èuvaj se - viknu za njim Violeta s lonèiæem vode u ruci - Ako
followed attentively Violeta's reactions. vidiš da mlate, a ti ne srljaj naprijed, nego ostani gdje jesi,
-Might that be them again? obeæaj?
-You mean, Jehovah's Witnesses… - Si, mamice - èula ga je još na vanjskom ploèniku pa zatim
-Well, they usually don't come at this hour. bacila tri puta vodu, za sreæu.
Pavo enetered the room without saying hello. He had a Jedan susjed na balkonu urbane vile baš je uglavljivao
soldier's backpack over his right shoulder and a green T-shirt zastavu u cijev.
with the sign: “Healthy life for everyone, not just for them!” - Sutra je Dan državnosti - pomisli Violeta, pomalo uzrujano. -
When he turned round, the fluorescent logo on his back A mi opet nemamo zastavu!
flashed for a brief moment - PONIKVE 2010. Dok se vraæala pade joj na pamet kako æe Miljenko opet trpiti
-Has the war started? Miljenko remarked sarcastically. kritike na mjesnom odboru zbog opstrukcije državnih
-If you go to the woods, be careful of the ticks in the blagdana. Ali, dok se dogegala unutra,
dugouts… Miljenko je veæ izmigoljio na drugu, dvorišnu stranu.
-Dad, this is serious. Pavo obviously wasn't in the mood for Ašovèiæem je ispitivao najmekši dio vrta i mumljao si nešto u
jokes. It's an emergency. bradu. Malo potom krišom je donio maèka umotanog u
-Where are you going? Violeta asked excitedly while cleaning krparu i - siguran da ga Violeta ne špijunira - ubacio u rupu.
the dining-table in a hurry. -Shall I make you some eggs and Na zadnjoj lopati, tiho reèe: - Laka ti zemljica, Buco.
sausages?
-I'm in a hurry. The assembly point is at Cibona. We're going
by five buses. The Greens from Zagorje and Slavonija are
joining us in Karlovac. No more fooling around!
-So it is true. They are draining the Adriatic -remarked
Miljenko from his dimly lit corner.
-Even worse, old man, even worse. Half of Mljet is being
bulldozed. Large sums are at stake. Some Russian-German
consortium is building luxury hotels…
- What will you be doing there? Jumping in front of bulldozers
again… Like on the island of Vis last year, right?
- Vis was a piece of cake. The ones on Mljet are guarded by
the specials. Luèko, Dad! An investment of strategic
importance, do you get it?
Violeta and Miljenko exchanged glances. When Pavo
mentioned the special forces, nobody was in the mood for
joking. Pavo opened the fridge and put a couple of cans in his
backpack.
-Do you really have to go?! exploded Violeta. You've been to
all those places! Can't you miss at least one action?! They can
manage without you…
-Every man is important. Mass demonstrations, quantity,
that's the trick! The government doesn't stop talking about a
handful of green radicals. If we manage to stop them on
Mljet, we'll surely get into Parliament next year.
Miljenko waved his words aside.
-The European Greens are also coming. They've already
called us from Šentilj. Bye!

31
-And look after Buco!
-Take care! Violeta shouted to him with a jug of water in her
hand. If they start beating them, don't rush headlong into
danger but stay where you are. Promise me that!
-I promise, Mum she heard him on the pavement outside.
Then she poured out the water three times… For luck.
A man on the balcony of the neigbouring villa was fixing the
flag in the holder.
Tomorrow is Independence Day thought Violeta nervously.
Once again we don't have the flag!
On her way back it crossed her mind that Miljenko would
again be criticized by the local council for obstructing public
holidays.
When she came waddling into the house, Miljenko had
already slipped out by the back door. He was mutterring to
himself as he was probing the ground with a spade in order to
find the softest spot in the garden. Shortly afterwards, he
secretly brought the cat wrapped in cloth and, when he was
sure that Violeta wasn't spying on him, he dumped it in the
hole. Having thrown the last spadeful of earth, he said in a
low voice: “Rest in peace, Buco.”

S
de s i g n & c o nc e pt s
www.arts-dc.com.hr

32