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Demographic Trends

and Population Growth

Samuel Glaser, Kevin Rothermund,
James Walnoha, Emily Davis
Demographic Trends and Population Growth

Defined as…

● Demographics are the study of populations based on age, sex, ethnicity (and
other factors), to develop policy and conduct marketing research
● Population growth is determined by (Immigration + birth rate) - (emigration +
death rate), compared to a current populus

● As Japan Ages, So Does Its Workforce

● Fiscal consequences of an shrinking population
Case Studies: Japan

- The age of retirement is increasing

- The workforce has decreased by 2 million since the late 1990s and could
collapse to 42 million people by the mid-century.
- Large companies set a mandatory retirement age of 60 but smaller
companies allow people to keep working as long as they’re able
- Department store chain has introduced a performance based system for
employees ages 60-65
- However, many choose not to work because of the state pension that is
provided if they retire.
Fiscal Consequences

● Shrinking populations lead to changes in consumer needs

○ Businesses lose out on new customers
● Slow economic growth, if any
○ Can lead to projection errors if population changes are not considered
● Longer lifespans mean people must work longer
○ Longer reliance on social security with a low retirement age
● Public/government policies to increase fertility
○ Advertisement campaigns to increase fertility
What does this mean for Business

● Changes in consumer tastes that are based on the aging population

● Fall of the Yen
● High participation of women in the workforce has a strong correlation to low
fertility rates
● Possible reforms to state pensions to change labor participation
○ Currently at 60
Who Benefits

● Age-related expenditures in more developed economies are projected to

increase by nearly 8½ percentage points of GDP over 2015–2100
● Healthcare is projected to be the industry to benefit the most from the
increase in life expec
● Lower crime rates will result from an increase in the average age of a

Is allowing immigrants into Japan a solution to their declining fertility rates?

Should governments create incentives for people to have kids?


Reynolds, I. (2017, April 25). Japan's Shrinking Population. Retrieved March 21,
2018, from

Gonzales, C., S. Jain-Chandra, K. Kochnar, and M. Newiak. 2015. “Fair Play: More
Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation.” Staff Discussion Note
5/02, International Monetary Fund, Washington.