POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER

February 2018
INTRODUCTION
URBANISATION
MIGRATION
AGEING
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION

Megatrend analysis

 Euromonitor International’s team of economic,

consumer, and industry trend experts have
identified 20 megatrends shaping consumer
markets. The research team has further predicted
the eight most influential megatrends to watch for
2017. These megatrends, sharing common drivers,
have the power to transform and disrupt entire
categories.
 Our launch of a megatrends framework and
subsequent megatrend report series, provide
thought leadership on the trends with the strongest
influence on the world of tomorrow. In a rapidly
changing global environment, megatrend analysis is
critical for companies seeking to drive sustainable
growth and remain relevant as competition
increases and new ideas disrupt entire industries.
 A megatrends framework enables us to better
identify new emerging trends, while also monitoring
the more established long-term megatrends shaping
the world. With our access to tens of millions of data
points, we are uniquely positioned to provide a
holistic approach to megatrends analysis.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 3

INTRODUCTION

Scope

 This report examines the key population changes and dynamics, namely Disclaimer
urbanisation, international migration and population ageing, that Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
contribute to generating and shaping the eight most influential while every attempt has been made
megatrends impacting consumer markets and disrupting industries over to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
the long term. held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.

The recent past has seen

enormous population changes
including rapid urbanisation,
accelerating migration and
population ageing. These
changes are set to continue in
the future with far-reaching
implications. They play a
powerful role in driving the most
influential megatrends
impacting consumer markets.
These megatrends include
Healthy Living, Ethical Living,
Connected Consumers,
Shopping Reinvented, Middle
Class Retreat, Premiumisation,
Experience More and Shifting
Market Frontiers.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 4

INTRODUCTION
Key findings on population change
Enormous changes
Rapid urbanisation
Accelerating migration
Population ageing
Population change is a
megatrend driver
© Euromonitor International
Euromonitor International identified rapid urbanisation, accelerating migration
and population ageing as the most important forces of global population change,
as they have the power to transform the world we live in. The pace of change,
however, varies significantly between different countries.
The unprecedented shift from rural to urban living is a major population change
impacting the global consumer landscape. Asia and Africa, in particular, are
undergoing rapid urbanisation with implications ranging from expanding middle
classes and smaller families to rising obesity and environmental pollution.
Global migration is on the rise and is becoming a key feature in a globalised and
interconnected world. Although the effect of migration is uneven between
countries, where it occurs, migration has a profound impact on both the country
that has been left behind and the country that is being migrated to.
The developed world is ageing as a result of fertility rates falling below the
natural replacement level, but ageing is not restricted to developed countries. In
particular, China is home to a fifth of the world’s urban population and to an even
larger proportion of the global population aged 65+ as a consequence of rapid
ageing.
Each of the key aspects of global population change examined in this report has
the potential to generate both tremendous opportunities to seize and substantial
risks and challenges to mitigate. But together they become the transformative
force of population change that contributes to generating and shaping the eight
most influential megatrends impacting consumer markets.
POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 5
INTRODUCTION

Global population change

 The world population is expected to exceed 8.5 billion in Population Growth Index of the
2030, a rise of 14.1% or 1.0 billion over 2017-2030. The World and Its Regions 2000-2030
210
rate of natural change will, nevertheless, slow down
through to 2030, largely as a result of declining birth and
fertility rates. 190

 Thanks to increasing life expectancy, older age groups will

increase at the fastest rate between 2017 and 2030, with 170
those aged 65+ years increasing by 53.4% or 3.3 billion.

2000 = 100
 Urban population will increase by 25.4% ̶ nearly twice the 150
pace of total population growth during 2017-2030 and is
expected to make up 61.2% of the global population in
130
2030.
 General population trends can, however, mask
considerable differences between countries. For example, 110

many low-income countries continue to have high fertility

rates. Many advanced countries, on the other hand, are 90
experiencing low or even negative natural population 2000 2030

growth and are increasingly relying on migration to make World Asia Pacific
up for their shrinking labour force. Australasia Eastern Europe
Latin America Middle East and Africa
 Demographic shifts such as urbanisation, migration, and North America Western Europe
increasing proportion of elderly people are combining to
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN
reshape consumer lifestyles and purchasing decisions. Note: Data for 2017-2030 are forecast.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 6

INTRODUCTION

The world population in 2030

World Population Statistics: 2030 Population by Urban/Rural Location: 2030 Top 10 Cities: 2016-2030
Australasia million
POPULATION (BILLION) 40

8.5
North America

Latin America Jakarta (Indonesia)

Western Europe Tokyo (Japan)

MEDIAN AGE (YEARS) LIFE EXPECTANCY (YEARS) Eastern Europe

2016

2030
32.8 74.4 World Manila (Philippines)
Cairo (Egypt)
Asia Pacific
30
Middle East & Africa Shanghai (China)

0% 50% 100% Karachi (Pakistan)

Population Age Shift: 2016 and 2030 Urban Rural Seoul (South Korea)
150
Beijing (China)

Mexico City (Mexico)

Million people

100 São Paulo (Brazil)

20

50 2030

2016
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 79
Age, years
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics /UN 10
Note: Top 10 cities are based on the biggest cities by forecast population in 2030

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 7

INTRODUCTION
URBANISATION
MIGRATION
AGEING
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
CONCLUSION
URBANISATION

The future is urban

 The unprecedented shift from rural to urban World Population by Rural/Urban Location 2030
living is a major population change
impacting the global consumer landscape. Australasia

 By 2030, there will be 30 mega cities across

the globe, the vast majority being in North America
emerging markets particularly Asia.
 Rapid urbanisation generates opportunities Latin America
for businesses as it is usually easier to
reach urban consumers than their rural Western Europe
counterparts. Urbanisation is often
accompanied by the transition to smaller
Eastern Europe
households as well as new lifestyles and
consumption habits, which in turn creates
World
significant opportunities. However,
urbanisation places huge demands on
infrastructure, services, job creation, Asia Pacific
environment and resources, all of which can
impact the consumer market and business Middle East and Africa
environment in urban agglomerations.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Population
By 2030, 61.2% of the global
Urban Rural
population will live in urban areas
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
Note: Data are forecast.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 9

URBANISATION

Impacts of urbanisation

Rise of single Later parenting; Expanding Better access to Better

persons shrinking families middle class with education connectivity
rising incomes

High costs of Pressure on Less time for Pollution and Large gaps
housing; small infrastructure and leisure and related health between ‘haves’
living spaces services physical activity issues and ‘have nots’

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 10

URBANISATION

Case study: South Korea developing ‘smartest’ cities

All 11 South Korean cities that Euromonitor tracks boast the highest
household access to broadband internet out of 1,150 world cities

Continuous urbanisation – population expansion,
traffic increase and pollution concerns – is urging city
authorities across South Korea to come up with new
solutions and initiatives for developing smart cities.
The aim is to ensure efficient delivery of services and
a good quality of life for urban residents.
Cisco, Samsung and SK Telecom are among
several large IT and telecom companies that have
been working on developing South Korea’s smart
cities. These cities use cloud technology, data
analytics and the internet of things to automate
urban services and promote eco-friendly practices.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 11

INTRODUCTION
URBANISATION
MIGRATION
AGEING
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
CONCLUSION
MIGRATION

Global migration is a key feature in an interconnected world

 Migration is set to rise and become a key feature Top 5 Countries with the Highest Number of
in an increasingly globalised and interconnected Foreign Citizens 2011-2016
25
world. In developed markets, in particular, higher
birth rates among ethnic minority communities
will further increase ethnic, cultural and religious
diversity with important implications for brands 20
and businesses.
 With the share of foreign citizens in total

Foreign citizens, million

population varying hugely from 88.2% in Qatar to 15
less than 0.1% in Indonesia, the effects of
migration are uneven between countries.
However, where it occurs, migration has a
10
profound impact on both the country that has
been left behind and the country that is being
migrated to. It adds to ethnic, cultural and
religious diversity and shapes demographic, 5
economic and social dynamics in these
countries.
0
The number of international migrants USA Saudi Arabia Germany United Arab United
Emirates Kingdom
reached 247 million globally in 2016, a
2011 2016
huge 42.7% rise from 2000
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN/Eurostat
Note: Top 5 countries are based on 2016 ranking.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 13

MIGRATION
Impacts of global migration
Migrants fill the employment gaps and
rejuvenate ageing workforces in their
destination countries. However, their
origin countries might be left with a ‘brain
drain’ and even a shrinking labour force
that adversely affects the economy.
Growing diversity profoundly impacts
consumer lifestyles, habits and
behaviour. Diversity also leads to a
greater mix of products that appeal not
only to ethnic minorities but also to local
consumers seeking more variety.
© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER
The remittances that migrants send home
contribute to raising the purchasing
power in origin countries. It is projected
that in 2017 one-in-seven people in the
world will be involved in either sending or
receiving over US$450 billion in
remittances.
Migration contributes to urban population
growth, as immigrants tend to live and
work in urban areas. It is also replacing
fertility as the primary driver of population
growth in some developed markets
where the natural growth is stagnant.
PASSPORT 14
MIGRATION

Case study: World foods open a new growth avenue for UK grocers

In 2016, 17.0% of the UK population were of different ethnic group to white,

with the proportion being much higher in major cities.

The demand for world foods in the UK has been
growing thanks to rising immigration in addition to a
curiosity from local shoppers to try new cuisines. This
creates a new source of growth for grocery retailers,
with Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons being
particularly active at seizing this opportunity.
Tesco, for example, targets each area within London
with products specifically suited to the local ethnic
mix. In Upton Park, where 97% of its customers are
black or Asian, the local Tesco Metro has a halal
meat counter and serves hot halal chicken.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 15

INTRODUCTION
URBANISATION
MIGRATION
AGEING
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
CONCLUSION
AGEING

The world is growing older

 Population ageing, driven by rising life expectancy

and falling fertility rates, is a powerful and
transformative demographic force.
 The fertility rates of all developed countries (with
the exception of Israel) have fallen below 2.1
children born per female, which is the rate needed
for a developed nation to hold its population
constant. But ageing is not restricted to developed
economies. China is home to a fifth of the world’s
urban population and to an even larger proportion
of the global population aged 65+ as a
consequence of rapid ageing.
 Ageing presents challenges such as a shrinking
labour force, reduced savings leading to depressed
investment and growth, and increasing government
spending on healthcare and pensions. However, as
older people become more active as both workers
and consumers, population ageing will create new
demands and present many opportunities.

In 2019, the global population aged 65+

will, for the first time in history, outnumber
children under the age of 5 Source: Euromonitor International’s Future Demographics Model
Note: Data for 2017-2030 are forecast

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 17

AGEING

Impacts of ageing

Lower savings, greater consumption

More ailments, diseases and disabilities

Ageing workforce, declining productivity

Lower growth as reduced savings result in less investment

Changing consumer needs and demands

Less support for the elderly from a shrinking workforce

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 18

AGEING

Case study: ‘Ageing in place’ is on the rise thanks to technology

 ‘Ageing in place’ is a growing movement that

focuses on keeping elderly people in their homes
for longer as they age. One core element of ageing
in place is to allow elderly people to maintain their
quality of life.
 Smart technologies such as home automation,
remote health monitoring and robotic caregivers
are getting better and more sophisticated every
day, allowing older adults to continue to live
independently in their own homes without affecting
their health and safety. Many technology giants,
including Google, Honeywell, IBM and Nokia, have
been working on “ageing-in-place” technologies,
which range from mobile devices to IoT
infrastructure systems specifically related to health
and welfare.
 Other technologies built for the young also have
the great potential of improving the lives of the
elderly. For example, Amazon’s Echo, which
targets young consumers, can answer questions,
read the news, phone relatives and control devices
such as lights and the television on demand, and
so could be useful for older people.

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 19

INTRODUCTION
URBANISATION
MIGRATION
AGEING
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
CONCLUSION
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS

Population change generates and shapes the 8 megatrends

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 21

POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
How population change generates and shapes the megatrends
Experience More
• Older people prioritise experience over ‘stuff’,
but younger generations are also showing a
strong predilection for experiences. Migration
and mobility also facilitate this megatrend.
Shifting Market Frontiers
• Population growth in Asia and Africa; migration;
population ageing all shape Shifting Market
Frontiers.
Healthy Living
• Urbanisation with busy lifestyles and pollution;
ageing; greater awareness of health and
nutrition due to better access to education
especially in urban areas all drive this
megatrend.
Ethical Living
• Population growth and rapid urbanisation put
pressure on resources and the environment,
but also raise consumer concerns over
sustainability.
© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER
Middle Class Retreat
• Middle classes are urban, educated, having
fewer children and getting older. In many
developed countries, middle classes are also
ethnically diverse.
Premiumisation
• Ageing consumers, delayed marriage and
smaller families all drive demand for premium
products.
Shopping Reinvented
• Ageing, urbanisation and migration drive
consumer demand including the demand for a
convenient and technologically advanced
experience. Urbanisation leads to better
retailing and IT infrastructures.
Connected Consumers
• Rapid urbanisation and population growth in
Asia and Africa will give rise to more connected
consumers on the back of an expanding youth
population and better connectivity.
PASSPORT 22
INTRODUCTION
URBANISATION
MIGRATION
AGEING
POPULATION CHANGE AND MEGATRENDS
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION

Population change: What you need to know

Think cities and megacities, especially in Asia and Africa

Celebrate diversity – it creates opportunities even within existing

markets

Engage silver consumers – they are the future!

Think long term – challenges and opportunities brought about by

population change are here to stay

© Euromonitor International POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER PASSPORT 24

CONCLUSION
Leverage the power of megatrends to shape your strategy today
The importance of megatrend
analysis
 Today’s environment of fast-
paced change makes it more
challenging than ever to keep
up with competitors. Megatrend
analysis helps businesses better
anticipate market developments
and lead both incremental and
disruptive change for their
industries. Euromonitor’s white
paper “Megatrend Analysis:
Putting the Consumer at the
Heart of Business” provides
instructions on how to conduct
megatrend analysis for your
business.
© Euromonitor International
Don’t miss our other
megatrend reports
 Experience More
 Shifting Market Frontiers
 Healthy Living
 Shopping Reinvented
 Middle Class Retreat
 Ethical Living
 Premiumisation
 Connected Consumers
POPULATION CHANGE AS A MEGATREND DRIVER
How Euromonitor Consulting
can help
 In addition to education and
awareness, Euromonitor
International partners with
businesses to quantify the
current and forecasted impact of
megatrends, prioritizing which
megatrends and
industry/category level trends to
innovate against and the next
steps for the company. To learn
more about how we can activate
megatrend analysis at your
company, please visit
http://www.euromonitor.com/con
sulting-consultation-request.
PASSPORT 25
FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
An Hodgson
Income and Expenditure Manager
An.Hodgson@euromonitor.com
@An_Hodgson

RELATED ANALYSIS
Top 5 Countries with the Biggest Rise in Urban Population
Old Is the New Young: How Global Consumers Are Challenging Ageing
Cultural Diversity and Its Impact on Global Consumer Markets
The World in 2030: The Future Demographic
Experience more...
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