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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

Vocus Communications
HOLD (previously REDUCE) Refocus at Vocus
Current price: A$2.80 ■ At VOC’s investor day a number of new initiatives were tabled which make us
Target price: A$2.78 more confident that management is making progress on reshaping the business.
Previous target: A$2.22
■ These include revenue tracking to target in Q1 FY18 and tighter cost controls
Up/downside: -0.6% (both opex and capex) which show attention is now being paid to ROIC.
Reuters: VOC.AX
Bloomberg: VOC AU
■ The possibility of divesting the New Zealand business was also mentioned, and
should this occur at a reasonable price, it could resolve VOC’s balance sheet
Market cap: US$1,365m problems, in our view. We upgrade from a Reduce to a Hold recommendation.
A$1,742m
Average daily turnover: US$9.73m
A$12.39m FY18 guidance – largely unchanged
Current shares o/s 618.0m FY18 guidance was largely unchanged with the slight tweak being higher ASC (VOC’s
Singapore to Perth Submarine cable) capex in FY18 although it will be lower in totality.
Free float: 97.5%
FY18 guidance suggests underlying EBITDA will be flat to down 5% yoy (on a like for
Price Close Relative to S&P/ASX 200 (RHS) like basis assuming VOC owned NextGen for 12 months in FY17).
5.90 95

4.90 77 Meeting sales targets and Return on Invested Capital now in focus
3.90 60 On the revenue front, VOC noted its direct sales team achieved its Q1 FY18 targets,
2.90 42
new staff and partners have been added, and VOC has successfully won 4 of 4 Federal
1.90 24
80
60
business tenders. Operationally VOC has made progress and is starting to fix some of
40 its enterprise delivery backlog/issues (although this doesn't appear to be completely
Vol m

20
fixed yet as VOC excluded some parts of the business from this statement). With sales
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17
meeting expectations and delivery delays getting resolved, VOC should be in a better
Source: Bloomberg
position. VOC noted plans to take A$120m of cost out of the business by FY20 with
Price performance 1M 3M 12M A$30m of higher NBN access costs netting this back to A$90m. The unknown part of
this remains cost associated with these cost reduction programs and whether they will
Absolute (%) 17.2 -20 -52.5
deliver, on a net basis EBITDA growth, or simply help to offset declining Underlying
Relative (%) 13.5 -23 -61 EBITDA. Regardless VOC has formulated a plan for tighter cost controls and improving
financial returns as evidenced by VOC mentioning ROIC for the first time in many years.
Nick Harris Guidance suggests VOC’s FY18 ROIC (EBIT/Invested Capital) sits at around 7% so
T +61 7 3334 4557 there is room to improve this figure. VOC trades at a 25% discount to book value, so
E nick.harris@morgans.com.au should ROIC improve materially, this would represent an upside risk to the share price.
James BARKER
Possibility of NZ divestment could fix the balance sheet
T (61) 7 3334 4893
Vocus announced plans to sell the NZ business, ideally by the end of FY18. In FY17 NZ
E james.barker@morgans.com.au reported A$232m of revenue and A$57.5m of EBITDA. Applying 6-8x would value this at
A$340-450m. A divestment would see EBITDA drop by ~17% but gearing would drop
from ~3x to ~2.2x and take the pressure off VOC’s balance sheet.

Investment view – upgraded to a Hold, from Reduce


Processes enacted to fix the VOC business combined with the three-year financial plan
increase our confidence in the medium-term outlook. This, combined with the possible
divestment of the NZ business, could be a positive catalyst for VOC if it improves the
balance sheet. With both of these factors in mind, we have upgraded our
recommendation from Reduce to Hold. We have made immaterial short-term changes
but in the medium term have reduced our capex forecast from 12.5% to 10% of revenue
which drives the valuation uplift from A$2.22 to A$2.78.
Financial Summary Jun-16A Jun-17A Jun-18F Jun-19F Jun-20F
Revenue (A$m) 831 1,821 1,908 1,895 1,952
Operating EBITDA (A$m) 216.8 335.5 370.0 381.5 391.6
Net Profit (A$m) 87 -1,465 73 76 79
Normalised EPS (A$) 0.30 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23
Normalised EPS Growth 41.7% (17.6%) (8.3%) 1.7% 1.7%
FD Normalised P/E (x) 9.37 10.54 12.39 12.18 11.98
DPS (A$) 0.18 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dividend Yield 6.25% 2.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.84 8.23 7.50 7.19 6.77
P/FCFE (x) 4.9 NA NA 119.2 35.8
Net Gearing 23.6% 44.7% 43.7% 40.8% 35.6%
P/BV (x) 0.54 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.69
ROE 6.03% 5.56% 5.98% 5.93% 5.86%
% Change In Normalised EPS Estimates 0.00% 0.00% 0.53%
Normalised EPS/consensus EPS (x) 1.00 1.00 0.95
SOURCE: MORGANS, COMPANY REPORTS

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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

Figure 1: Financial summary


Profit and loss (A$m) Jun-16A Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E Jun-20E Vocus - valuation details
Revenue 830.8 1,820.6 1,908.4 1,895.3 1,952.2 Share Price A$2.80 Market Cap A$1,738.8m
Gross Profit 390.4 760.9 985.6 1,000.0 1,002.9 Total shareholder return -0.6%
Total Operating Costs -173.6 -425.4 -615.7 -618.5 -611.3 Recommendation HOLD
EBITDA 216.8 335.5 370.0 381.5 391.6 WACC / Multiple Weighting Valuation
Depreciation -36.9 -86.9 -96.8 -105.5 -112.8 DCF 8.8% 50.0% A$3.09
Amortisation & impairments -41.6 -1,638.8 -116.7 -116.7 -116.7 EV / EBITDA multiple 7.0x 50.0% A$2.47
EBIT 138.4 -1,390.2 156.4 159.3 162.0 Weight valuation A$2.78
Net Interest Income -23.6 -40.9 -50.4 -48.6 -47.2 Discount / premium 0.0%
Pre-tax Profit 114.8 101.0 106.0 110.7 114.9 Price Target A$2.78
Tax -27.9 -33.8 -32.9 -34.3 -35.6
Net Profit after Tax 86.9 -1,464.8 73.2 76.4 79.3 Key metrics/ multiples Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E
Impa i rments , a morti s a ti on & one-offs 14.8 1,617.1 66.8 66.8 66.8 P / E (underlying) 11.4 12.4 12.2
Underlying NPAT 101.7 152.3 140.0 143.2 146.1 Normalised EPS growth -17.6% -8.3% 1.7%
FY18 Guidance - $1.9 to 2.0bn Revenue and $370-390m EBITDA , Underlying NPAT of A$140-150m PEG -0.65 -1.49 7.14
Capex of A$246-266m (inc A$56m on ASC @ 75c AUD/USD) EV / EBITDA 8.2 7.5 7.2
June 2018 net debt of A$1-A$1.1bn, implying zero free cash flow for FY18 (excluding possible divestments) Dividend yield 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cash flow statement Jun-16A Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E Jun-20E Operating cash flow yield 7.6% 13.4% 15.9%
Operating cash flow 135.6 131.5 233.1 276.5 294.1 Free cash flow yield -4.6% -0.6% 2.3%
Total capex & capitalised items -66.9 -211.3 -243.2 -236.9 -195.2 P/B 0.75 0.73 0.71
Free Cash Flow 68.7 -79.8 -10.1 39.6 98.8
Acquisitions and divestments 23.7 -817.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Per share data Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E
Other Investing cash flow -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Diluted shares on issue 618.0 621.0 625.0
Investing cash flows -43.5 -1,029.3 -243.2 -236.9 -195.2 Normalised EPS 0.25 0.23 0.23
Increase / decrease in Equity 1.3 673.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ordinary dividends 0.06 0.00 0.00
Increase / decrease in Debt 100.9 202.6 -25.0 -25.0 -50.0 Total dividends 0.06 0.00 0.00
Divs & other fin cash flows -81.2 -73.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ordinary div payout ratio 24% 0% 0%
Financing cash flows 21.1 802.9 -25.0 -25.0 -50.0
Result quality Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E
Balance Sheet Jun-16A Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E Jun-20E Cash flow conversion 57.0% 85.5% 94.2%
Cash And Deposits 128.6 50.2 15.1 29.8 78.6 FCF vs. EBITDA -23.8% -2.7% 10.4%
Debtors 144.4 167.1 185.0 265.8 288.2 FCF / Book Equity -3.5% -0.4% 1.6%
Other current assets 60.7 110.2 127.7 127.4 128.6
Total Current Assets 333.7 327.5 327.8 423.0 495.5 Gearing Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E
Fixed Assets 522.4 1,543.0 1,689.3 1,820.7 1,903.2 Net Debt 1,029 1,039 1,000
Goodwill & Intangibles 3,757.1 2,212.1 2,095.4 1,978.7 1,862.0 Net Debt / Equity 44.7% 43.7% 40.8%
Other non-current assets 80.9 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 Net Debt / EBITDA (x) 3.1 2.8 2.6
Total Non-Current Assets 4,360.3 3,844.1 3,873.8 3,888.5 3,854.2 EBIT interest cover (x) -34.0 3.1 3.3
TOTAL ASSETS 4,694.0 4,171.6 4,201.6 4,311.4 4,349.6 Invested Capital 3,477 3,469 3,474
Short Term Debt 4.0 13.7 105.4 102.9 97.9 Enterprise Value 2,760 2,778 2,750
Creditors 289.0 254.8 236.7 295.2 304.1
Other current liabilities 107.6 128.3 128.3 128.3 128.3 Growth ratios Jun-17A Jun-18E Jun-19E
Total Current Liabilities 400.6 396.8 470.4 526.4 530.3 Revenue 119.1% 4.8% -0.7%
Long Term Debt 872.4 1,065.8 949.0 926.5 881.5 Operating costs 145.1% 44.7% 0.5%
Other Non current liabilities 246.8 405.9 405.9 405.9 405.9 EBITDA 54.7% 10.3% 3.1%
Total Non -Current liabilities 1,119.2 1,471.7 1,354.9 1,332.4 1,287.4 EBIT -1104.8% -111.3% 1.8%
TOTAL LIABILITIES 1,519.7 1,868.5 1,825.3 1,858.8 1,817.7 Underlying NPAT 49.8% -8.1% 2.3%
Issued capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Underlying EPS -17.6% -8.3% 1.7%
Retained earnings 57.2 -1,494.4 -1,494.4 -1,494.4 -1,494.4 Operating cash flow -3.1% 77.3% 18.6%
Other reserves and FX 3,117.0 3,797.5 3,870.7 3,947.1 4,026.3 Free cash flow -216.1% -87.4% 494.1%
TOTAL EQUITY 3,174.3 2,303.1 2,376.3 2,452.7 2,531.9
SOURCE: MORGANS RESEARCH, COMPANY

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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

Potential impact of NZ divestment


The New Zealand business has been added to the “for sale pipeline”,
presumably due to a number of inbound approaches that have been received
since VOC announced it was looking to sell certain assets.
VOC is still looking to divest or possibly close its data centre and/or other non-
core assets. This process is ongoing but in our view there are likely limited
buyers who would be prepared to pay attractive rates for these assets. However,
in our view, given its strong local presence and integrated footprint, the New
Zealand business could find buyers at attractive rates.
Using VOC’s FY17 disclosures we can, on a high level basis, value the NZ
business at A$342-456m. VOC trades on 7.5x EV/EBITDA so a divestment at or
above 8x would be ideal. If we assume 5% deal costs and 8x sale price, this
could allow VOC to pay down A$433m of debt and drop gearing from 3.1x to
2.1x (FY17 historical). This would, in our view, be value creating as it would
assist VOC to resolve its balance sheet challenges.
/

Figure 2: NZ back of the envelope calculation on possible divestment impact


FY17 historic financials from New Zealand (A$m)
NZ revenue 232
NZ EBITDA 57
EBITDA margin 25%
Back of the envelope valuation on the NZ business Low Medium High
Multiple (x) 6 7 8
Gross value 342 399 456
Net value # 325 379 433
Impact on financials
FY17 (historic) Old New % Change
EBITDA 335.5 278.5 -17%
High Old New % Change
Debt paid down (using 8x purchase price) 433
Net Debt 1,029 596 -42%
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.1 2.1 -30%

Medium Old New % Change


Debt paid down (using 7x purchase price) 379
Net Debt 1029.3 650 -37%
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.1 2.3 -24%

Low Old New % Change


Debt paid down (using 6x purchase price) 325
Net Debt 1029.3 704 -32%
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.1 2.5 -18%
SOURCES: MORGANS, COMPANY REPORTS, # assumes 5% deal cost

Noteworthy investor day commentary


1) FY18 guidance was reaffirmed with some minor tweaks to capex. Net debt
guidance remains unchanged at A$1.03bn to A$1.06bn (up slightly from FY17 to
FY18).
2) VOC is still looking to divest its data centre and other non-core assets but
now includes the NZ business in the divestment pipeline. We view the NZ
business as a more palatable purchase than the other non-core VOC
businesses so think this has a reasonable possibility of occurring.
3) Today's investor slides raised the focus on ROIC or return on Invested
Capital which should, in our view, be a focus of all companies. The fact that this
is now in focus for VOC is a positive but it still has work to do to improve this.
4) Sales traction being made on both fronts:
4.1) VOC continues to grow Consumer NBN and UFB (NZ NBN) subscribers.
NBN appears to be tracking soundly with VOC noting it added 53k NBN
subscribers in Q1FY18 which is up strongly yoy (ACCC statistics suggest VOC
added 24k in Q1FY17). Au SIOs to 30 September 2017 are 549k (from 547k in
June 2017). NZ UFB market share is strong also at 16% of UFB connections in
Q1FY17. NZ SIOs were 192k at September 2017 (from 189k in June 2017).

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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

4.2) Q1 enterprise/wholesale sales targets were met and VOC has some
success in resolving its enterprise/wholesale delivery issues (although this
doesn't appear to be completely fixed yet as VOC excludes some part of the
business from this statement).
5) VOC noted a A$90m net (A$120m gross) cost out program which is
expected to fully contribute from FY21 (a FY2020 exit rate). There were no
additional comments supporting this so we are unsure whether this is expected
to drive growth in EBITDA or offset declining EBITDA. We expect it is a growth
driver but have not been provided details of the cost associated with this cost out
program. Previously VOC management noted cost out / synergy targets but
failed to include the fact that Underlying EBITDA was declining and that there
were substantial costs associated with delivering this cost out program.
6) VOC has retained its ASC (Submarine cable) go live date of Q1 FY19 and
appears to have slightly reduced the overall capex spend (down US$8m over
the payment terms) but up US$4m in FY18.
7) VOC has implemented tighter capex and opex control which is a positive,
in our view. More pleasingly VOC's slide now makes note of ROIC / Return On
Invested Capital which has not been a focus before.

Figure 3: Key slide for us was tying it all together to focus on ROIC

SOURCE: COMPANY

ASC / submarine cable project update


The timing is as per prior updates for a Q1 FY19 go live. VOC appears to have
slightly reduced the Capex associated with this project, albeit at the expense of
paying more in FY18 and less in FY19.
VOC now notes there are 20+ prospects, 8 advanced opportunities and the
potential to avoid an estimated $110m cumulative international IRU spend
through capacity swaps. We interpret this as VOC hoping to swap some of the
west coast cable capacity with an east coast cable supplier so it doesn't have to
spend $110m capex on east coast connectivity.

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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

Risks and rewards


Our key concern on VOC still relates to debt on balance sheet relative to
weakening EBITDA and lower return on capital than cost of capital. The possible
divestment of NZ (or other assets) could improve VOC’s balance sheet position
but for now VOC continues to invest heavily with capex (including capitalised
items) exceeding operating cashflow in FY17 and FY18. If the return on capital
exceeded VOC’s cost of capital, this would be value creating but as it currently
stands appears to not be the case.
As a positive example of ROIC, even though Telstra has many of its own
challenges, we calculate its Return on Equity (ROE) is 25.8% and Return on
Invested Capital (ROIC or EBIT / Equity + Net Debt + Working Capital) is 20.7%
in FY18 versus a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 7.9%.
VOC’s guidance for FY18 Underlying EBIT of A$245m (at the mid-point) over
invested capital of A$3.5bn generates a 7.1% ROIC. We estimate VOC’s WACC
is 8.8% so currently VOC’s ROIC is below its cost of capital which is not a
positive investment thesis. From a share price perspective this manifests itself in
VOC shares trading well below its book value per share.
Conversely this is also an upside risk as if VOC is able to deliver revenue growth
and take costs out (on a net basis) then logically its ROIC should expand and
this would manifest itself in the form of share price appreciation (as the share
price discount to book value should unwind).
Our preference is to see VOC’s attractive operating cashflow reinvested to de-
gear the balance sheet and de-risk the business for equity holders. Given the
return on capital equation versus cost of capital argument, we think capital is
better spent de-gearing the business but this will not happen in FY18.
In our view the key upside and downside risk for VOC shareholders relates to
the earnings trajectory of the business – that is whether from this point in time
the earnings outlook improves or worsens. Given the complexity of the business,
it’s difficult to cleanly extract data points but we estimate that on a like for like
basis earnings declined in FY17 and will do so again in FY18, before hopefully
improving slightly in FY19.
On a more positive note VOC consists of a series of strong cash generating
businesses with 1-15 year customer contracts so the backbone cash generation
of the business remains, in our view, strong (operating cashflow to market
capitalisation is currently 13%). It is just that more cash is currently being spent
than is being generated and the returns do not appear to justify this. We expect
VOC to be tightly managed going forward and believe that ultimately the ship will
turn but note that these things take time. Other upside risk relates to the
possibility of divestments resolving the balance sheet challenges in the short
term which would reduce the risk profile of VOC and increase management’s
flexibility to operate the business.

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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

Changes to forecasts and valuation


We have made no material profit and loss forecast changes. However in the
medium term we have reduced our capex/revenue forecast from 12.5% to 10%
and slightly increased our medium-term growth assumptions. This drives a
~25% increase in our equally weighted DCF and EV/EBITDA valuation.
Consequently our price target increases from A$2.22 to A$2.78. We upgrade our
recommendation from Reduce to Hold.

Figure 4: Forecast and valuation changes


2018 old 2018 new % change 2019 old 2019 new % change
Revenue 1908.4 1908.4 0.0% 1895.3 1895.3 0.0%
EBITDA 370.0 370.0 0.0% 381.5 381.5 0.0%
EBIT 156.4 156.4 0.0% 159.3 159.3 0.0%
Reported NPAT 73.2 73.2 0.0% 143.2 143.2 0.0%
Underlying NPAT 140.0 140.0 0.0% 76.4 76.4 0.0%
Underlying EPS 22.6 22.6 0.0% 23.0 23.0 0.0%
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
Shares on issue 620.4 620.4 0.0%
EV/EBITDA valuation $2.47 $2.47 0.0%
DCF $1.97 $3.09 56.8%
Weighted valuation $2.22 $2.78 25.2%
Premium / Discount 0% 0% n.m.
Price target $2.22 $2.78 25.2%
SOURCE: MORGANS RESEARCH, COMPANY

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Telco - Others│Australia│Equity research│October 23, 2017

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