LONGAN EXPORTING TREND

OF THAILAND

By
Miss. Jiraporn Kanchaisak
Student code: 491660006

Advisor
Lecturer Anaspree Chaiwan

This research is a partial fulfillment of Course

No. 751409
(Research Exercise in Current Economics Issues)
The first semester of the Academic year 2009
Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University

 
 
 ii 
 

Acknowledgement

This research is a part of the subject of 751409 Research Exercise in Economics. I

would like to sincerely thank to Anaspree Chaiwan, advisor, for advice my research.

Many sincere thank go to the Chiang Mai University library and the Economics

library for kindness over the period of this study.

Moreover, I would like to thank my parents give me the possibility to complete

this research and thank my friends who check to my research

Jiraporn Kanchaisak
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Table of Contents

Page

Acknowledgement ii

Table of Contents iii

List of Table iv

List of Figure vii

Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Statement of the problem 1

1.2 Objective of the study 6

1.3 Expected results 6

1.4 Scope Methodology 6

1.5 Definition 6

Chapter 2 Theories and Literature review

2.1 Theories

2.1.1 Time series data analysis 8

2.1.2 The components of time series models and equations 9

2.1.3 Data time series forecasting techniques. 10

2.2 Literature reviews 15

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Table of Contents

Page

Chapter 3 Methodology

3.1 Data used in the study 17

3.2 Methodology 17

Chapter 4 General phenomenon and characteristic

4.1 General information of Longan 19

4.1.1 Longan Manufacturing 19

4.1.2 Longan Marketing 24

4.1.3 Longan Pricing 25

4.1.4 Longan exporting 26

4.2 Longan international situation 30

Chapter 5 Research result

5.1 Separating components of time series 32

5.2 Forecasts/prediction 44

Chapter 6 Conclusion and Suggestion

6.1 Conclusion 48

6.2 Limitations in the research 51

6.3 Suggestion for the future study 51

References 52
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List of Table

Table Page

1.1 Thailand Export longan to international markets in 2552 2

1.2 The volume of dried Longan production Exporting in Year 2550-2551. 4

1.3 The quantity fresh and packaging exporting products of Thailand. 5

4.1 The Longan cultivated area by the Thai strains. 21

4.2 Longan yields divided by a region of Thailand. 22

4.3 The capacity of Thai Longan in 2547-2548 22

4.4 The yields of the Northern Thailand. (2542-2551). 23

4.5 The season price mixed fresh Longan index in 2545-2549. 24

4.6 The quantity and value of exporting Thai fresh Longan to overseas

markets by 2549 to 2550. 26

4.7 Volume and value of exported frozen Longan of Thailand

to international markets in 2549 to 2550. 27

4.8 The Volume and value of exports of Longan dried Thailand

to international markets in 2549 to 2550. 28

4.9 The Volume and value of Thai exports of Longan canned

to key overseas markets in 2549 to 2550. 29

4.10 The Volume and value of exports of Thai Longan fresh.

By exporting markets. 31

5.1 The Value of Longan exports year 2544 to 2551. 32

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List of Table

Table Page

5.2 The Value Quarterly Trends (T). 34

5.3 The Value and volume indices of export season Longan (S). 36

5.4 The Index of the value of the Longan exporting season. 37

5.5 The Value CI. 39

5.6 The Value of the movement cycle (C). 40

5.7 The Value movement disorders of Longan exporting value (I). 42

5.8 The Value of exports value Longan forecast in 2552-2556. 45

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List of Figure

Figure Page

5.2 Shows quarterly export Longan trends Year 2544 to 2551 35

5.4 Shows the value of the Longan exporting index season 38

5.6 Shows cycle The of movement according to the value of exports Longan. 41

5.7 Shows cycle of movement according to the value of exports Longan. 42

5.8 Shows the value of the trend forecast export value between Longan 46

quarters. Copyright 2552-2556.

 1

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Statement of the problem

As we know that Thailand’s economy is agricultural because there are many

environmental factor like geography and weather which can grow many kinds of

plants. Longan is an important fruit to Thailand and northern Thailand and many

farmers usually grow it because they can earn their income from this fruit. Thailand

can export longan abroad in the form of longan, dried longan, tinned longan, frozen

longan and other longan products. The main markets are China, Indonesia, The

United states of America, the Netherlands, and the Philippines, according to table

1.1(Department of export promotion). Since longan is very famous among people in

Thailand and foreigners in the reasons that it can help, for example, sleepless,

exhaustion, fatigue and nerve system and so on (National Food Institute, 1998). It can

be also transformed to be herbs because in Chinese’s belief longan can give

warmness, herbs and lucky fruit. In addition, In Malaysia and Indonesia people

usually drink longan juice and Korea people need dried longan.
 2

Table 1.1 Thailand Export longan to international markets in 2552

No Country Value : Million baht

2549 2550 2551 2551 2552

(Jan-may) (Jan-may)

1 China 913.36 850.93 861.39 414.94 373.87

2 Hong Kong 242.51 518.01 669.13 283.63 335.13

3 Indonesia 717.89 737.14 647.92 114.27 80.76

4 US 0.99 8.82 99.33 13.81 56.50

5 Netherlands 22.39 26.36 35.40 13.91 9.84

6 Philippines 23.60 34.08 44.06 5.43 8.88

7 Canadians 43.69 48.35 62.32 18.85 7.77

8 Vietnam 7.89 26.66 16.79 1.49 6.49

9 Singapore 42.62 42.66 57.58 7.50 5.23

10 UK 24.44 27.94 16.52 3.13 4.19

total 2,039 2,321.0 2,510.4 887.0 888.7

Source: Office agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Customs Department. ( 2550)
 3

Longan is becoming the important fruit in Thailand because the farmers can

earns the income by selling longan. According to the land of growing longan, in 2004,

there is 688,281 acre which increases from the year 2003, 56% and in 2004, Thailand

grew 350,000 ton of longan. According to the new technology, there are many

chemicals which can affect the export to many countries, Potassium and Sodium

Chlorate.

Nowadays, longan can be grown the second amount less than pineapple, in

table 1.2 And they can export longan product in form of longan and frozen longan,

fried longan, tinned longan, in table 1.3 It can be inferred that fresh longan and frozen

longan in very important in exporting to Thailand. Nevertheless, it is becoming the

problem because China, the main market, can produced longan by themselves

including Thailand is going to lose the fruit market to Vietnam because of the

influence of WTO and free trade policy. Therefore, in this study, the researcher will

focus on the longan export to both domestic and international including analyzing the

movement and prediction of longan export value to understand to the situation to plan

the manufacturing supporting to the market and helping in solving problem and the

obstacles in the future.

 4

Table 1.2 The volume of dried longan production exporting in year 2550-2551

Production area (Rai) Production( ton ) Production area

No Plant name (Kg)

2550 2551 2550 2551 2550 2551

1 Pineapple 597,467 581,972 2,305,28 2,278,16 3,858 3,915

2 Longan 939,029 966,831 495,457 476,988 528 448

3 Lychee 170,783 159,812 73,858 53,175 432 333

4 Durian 683,044 667,437 750,683 637,790 1,099 956

5 Mangosteen 387,292 396,325 348,181 173,511 899 438

6 Rambutan 423,804 396,987 489,296 404,053 1,151,764 1,018

7 Wollongong 306,687 334,636 234,191 172,756 1,238 516

8 Mango 1,860,005 1,725,341 2,302,686 2,173,961 2,42 1,573

Source: Bureau of Agricultural Economic

 5

Table 1.3 The quantity fresh and packaging exporting products of Thailand

Value/ Longan and Frozen Tinned longan Dried longan Total

Year longan
Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Value
2543 102,927 2,160.55 55,904 2,414.87 11,715 467.3 2,636.87
2
2544 102,903 1,974.96 26,838 1,309.96 8,971 367.1 3,652.08
7
2545 114,403 1,986.82 29,916 1,326.12 11,507 412.7 3,725.64
0
2546 82,731 1,718.29 59,157 2,511.63 13,542 495.7 4,725.62
0
2547 116,188 2,193.23 71,563 1,541.06 11,320 403.3 4,137.59
0
2548 134,433 2,198.03 94,773 2,350.84 12,669 443.4 4,992.31
4
2549 119,785 2,137.35 78,391 1,606.63 11,205 400.0 4,144.04
6
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550)
 6

1.2 Objective of the study

1. To study the longan situation in domestic and international market in

manufacturing, price, marketing and exportation.

2. To analyze the movement and prediction in longan exportation value of

Thailand in the future.

1.3 Expected Results

Understanding the longan situation in domestic and international market in

manufacturing, price, marketing and exportation factor to know the tendency of

longan exportation including the prediction of the value in exportation which can help

in planning the marketing strategies and help in solving problems and obstacles in the

future.

1.4 Scope Methodology

To study the longan situation in domestic and international market and analyze

the movement of longan exportation in last 8 years from 2001 – 2008 including

predicting the export value in the next 5 years since 2009 – 20014 by using Time

Series Data in analyzing.

1.5 Definitions

Longan is a tree which is medium height in high height. In botany, it is named

Emporia Longan Lamk. The origin is assumed that was from the southern China

because they have grown for thousand years.

 7

Exportation means to distribute the products or services to another country.

Distributing products depend on the base of differences of cost comparing to

international price.

Prediction to forecast, to expect and to estimate

Movement analysis to analyze to the many points and to divide the factors to get

the benefit in estimation in the future.

 8

Chapter 2

Theories and Literature reviews

2.1 Theories

Time Series Data is an analysis which is collected in the past continuously. Time

Series Data is a number which is connected to the variable, for example,

Y 1, Y 2 , Y 3 ,...... Y n and Y t It is a symbol of time series data at t time.

Time Series Data analysis is a prediction of the dependent variable in the future

by using the time series data to study the relationship and hypothesis that can be used

in the future.

To analyze the time series data consists of the separation of the composition in

time series data and analyze the relationship of the composition to predict the value in

the future of the time series data.

Time series data can be divided into 4 parts:

1. Secular Trend or Long-term movement ( T )

2. Seasonal or Periodic Movement ( S )

3. Cyclical Movement ( C )

4. Irregular Movement
 9

The components of time series models and equations

1. Secular Trend or Long-term movement : T

It is a long movement of the time series data that which side it is going to be

high or low. The secular trend shows the ways that the time series data moving to. It

can be vertical line or curved line or others.

2. Seasonal or Periodic Movement : S

It is the movement depending on the season which can be up and down in the

same time in the year. The seasonal moving can be found in the data less than one

time a year which are quarterly, three month, monthly or weekly.

3. Cyclical Movement : C

It is the repeated movement like the seasonal movement, but the movement is

like a cycle more than one time a year and the data is not stable and difficult to

predict. The cyclical movement causes from the economic factors, the change of the

government policy, or the change of the customers

4. Irregular Movement : I

This movement is unlike the last 3 movements. It is the unstable movement

and not be predicted by using the past data. It happens because of weather, flooding,

war, revolution, labor strike, election and so on.

Time Series Data Duplication

In a series, we can write 4 duplications, 2 popular.

1. additive model

Y = T+S+C+I ( 2.1 )
 10

2. multiplicative model

Y = T × S ×C × I (2.2 )

By Y = the value of the data at t time

T = secular trend

S = Seasonal movement

C = Cyclical movement

I = Irregular movement

There are 2 differences of the duplication.

Case I: If the duplication is additive model, the composition will be

independent, but if the duplication is multiplicative model, the duplication will be

affected.

Case II: If the duplication is in the 4 additive compositions, there will be the

data. If it is in the multiplicative, there will be .only t. S, C and I will be in percentage

and index. C and I are very hard to be differentiated because it is not stable.

Therefore, the economic people will use the multiplicative model because the

numbers are much closed to the truth

Data time series forecasting techniques

Nowadays, there are many techniques to predict the Time Series Data. Using

the techniques have to consider in many factors, for example, time prediction, the

correction of the prediction. In this study, the researcher will use decomposition

methods.
 11

Decomposition Method

It is the way of prediction by separating the 4 compositions which are T =

secular trend, S = Seasonal movement, C = Cyclical movement, I = Irregular

movement. All of them are in the multiplicative model.

Y = T × S ×C × I ( 2.3 )

When the composition can be separated, it can be predicted by predicting the

composition from the past; it can be predicted in the year that they want to. Therefore,

the equation will be

Y = T × S ×C ( 2.4 )

The Compositions of the time series data analysis

1. Trend : T calculation

The secular trend will show the data in the time series data which tends to

be increasing or decreasing or in the long run term. Therefore, analyzing the trend,

they always use the annual data which shows the linear and not linear line.

The equation will be

T = Yt = a + bxt ( 2.5)

Yt = The value of the interesting time series data

X t = Time value X=0

a = Crossing value at Y or the secular trend at the beginning

 12

b= the steep of the linear trend or Yt is changed, when the time

changes 1 unit.

X in the equation of the linear trend mean the time value which can be daily,

monthly, quarterly or yearly. This data cannot be directly calculated. Therefore, in

calculating the secular trend, it has to be changed to qualitative research.

Assigned = -1,-2,-3,... For the period before the beginning phase 1, 2,

3… respectively

Assigned = 1, 2, 3,… For the period before the beginning phase 1, 2, 3 …

respectively

In the case of non-linear

Can be divided into 2 case is

- If time series data sets has value in the trends or characteristics Parabolic

or Polynomial

( 2.6 )

- If cost trends in the nature Exponential

( 2.7 )

2. Seasonal Variation : S

Seasonal movement is a movement in time series data which happens

within a year. Usually, this variation will happen every year, but this movement will

show in relationship in percentage or called seasonal index.

To estimate the seasonal index can be done in many ways, but the best way

to do is the Ratio-to-trend method. In this case, there are monthly data which have the

method to calculate the seasonal index within 1 year.

 13

1. To calculate the tendency in each month

2. To eliminate T out of the time series data by dividing the result from

method 1 to the general data. After that calculating it in percentage by multiplying

100. Therefore, to calculate the ratio to trend or percentage of trend has to be

calculated in the percentage form first.

3. To eliminate C and I from the general data by using percentage of trend

to find the median of each month by putting it in order 12 months.

4. To calculate the data from step III, 12 values, calculates to the percentage

of each month; as a result, the seasonal index will come 12 values.

3. Cyclical Movements: C

It can be done by “Residual method.” If you want to get rid of the

composition which is T, S and I from the series, the remaining will be changed

according to the revolution which can be done in 2 cases:

Method 1: calculate the average mobile to eliminate S and I are off to the

left of the TC. Using time series data (Y) and time (t) values for the equation are two

trends by the least. Potential value equation. We can estimate trend (T) has taken up

trend (T) to divide the TC. Left is C.

Method 2: when the value trend (T) is multiplied by S to TS, which we call

normal value (normal) is. Our values are expected. If the only influence on the T and

S, and then only take up to normal or TS divided. Data time series (Y) is the CI is

known. Normal cost percentage (Percentage of Normal), which suggests that a sale

(Y) is high or how low. It is relevant to what it should be, if not C and I set the time in

order to eliminate the I or the influence of changes due to abnormal events occur out
 14

of this I do not randomly oriented but the removal out. Use it. Weighted average

mobility. We will use the average weight of the weight coefficients of the gravity

couple million Dubai Knowles (Binomial Coefficients).

3. Irregular Movements: I Analysis

It can be done by using Residual Method.

Case 1:When you can get IC and separate C, and then separate C by IC is

divided by C.

Case 2 :When you calculate T, S and C, T multiplies S and C. The result

will be TSC and divided by Y then the result will be I.

Time Series Data Calculation

Analysis of time series in which this will eliminate the influence of components

and separate each section by beginning to separate T's predecessor, then the

separation S is the T and S values can come in the form of T x S, we multiply. called a

"normal value" is a value that we expect will be a time series data is available only if

the influence of T and S only and the remaining cost components will be C and I is

the value.

T T * S *C * I
= = C*I ( 2.8 )
T *S T *S

Because C and I are moving to change course, we do not often considered

together, and the two components that “As the rest" (The Remainder OR Residuals).
 15

2.2 Literature reviews

This research studies the export trade by using the questionnaire test by

descriptive statistics including frequency and percentage chi-square test. The results

to study shown that too different is first, Piyawan Sakuljaruen (1996) studied the

opportunities in exporting longan. The objective is to acknowledge the opportunity in

expanding market to export longan of Thailand and the problems in delivering, the

obstruction from other countries, low quality product, the government policy. The

data was from the questionnaires doing by the 85 longan farmers, 24 longan

purchasers and 4 big northern exporters including the secondary data collected from

governmental documents. Furthermore, the analysis shows that Thailand had

opportunity to export the product abroad. Dried longan can be exported to Korean and

Hong Kong market including USA market. Second, Kanung Yothayai (1998) ,studied

the longan exportation to Republic of China to show the power in producing dried

longan of Thailand and the problems and obstacles in exportation by using secondary

data collected from the government and private documents from 1990 – 1997. From

the study, it shows that Thailand have potential in exporting dried longan to Republic

of China because Thailand can expand the growing area, harvesting area, the amount

of producing longan and dried longan is increasing every year. Third, Aranee Tapri

(2002) studied the ability in compete the longan exportation in Northern Thailand by

studying the primary data about cost of production in Northern Thailand all 25 years

75 longan tree. Cost of production is from the 23 farmers. She collected the secondary

data in exporting, interest, tax and exchange. The analysis is from the descriptive

research and Matrix analysis. The result of the study, using the surrounding resources

is 0.8850 and cost of production is 0.9588. When compare with China, the cost of
 16

production is 1.0252 and 1.1183. But according to the study literature use to time

series analysis the results of this study found that Krittaya Apian (2004) ,studied the

analysis of the tendency in jasmine rice export to China which study the general

situation of producing jasmine rice and exportation of Thailand and China. In

addition, the researcher studied the tendency and prediction in export the jasmine rice

to China by using time data series by separate the composition to analyze. It shows

that the highest tendency in exporting is on December and lowest trend on June.

Furthermore, the researcher recommend the solution about the weather which affects

the growing and cost of production by building the dam, make high technology,

change the seed and supported by the government. And Warong Teerasopon (2004)

studied the “Prediction of exporting Thai silk.” In this study, the researcher studied

the structure of exporting Thai silk including the rules and negotiation of the main

market countries. The researcher used the Time series data as an instrument. The

problems which should be solved are the low technology in production. Low class

product and no marketing strategies. Therefore, the owner has to get the information

about marketing to develop their product and manufacturing. The related organization

should help in policy and practicing to help the Thai silk competes with the worlds.

So, this study is more education-related research this. As a result of further expansion

of other research. Then, All the way in research studies. This has the knowledge and

principles in this research work. Research group and catchy with great success.
 17

Chapter 3

Methodology

3.1 Data used in the study

The exporting Logan’s information of this research is the secondary data that from

many sources. The information is the quarterly data from 2004 – 2009

- Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives

- Department of Export Promotion

- Ministry of Commerce

- Export-Import Bank of Thailand

- The economic reporting is from the mass communications of economic

statistic and finance of Bank of Thailand

- Office of Agricultural Economics

3.2 Methodology

The Instrument of this research can divide in two parts of the objective

Objective1 : The studied of the situation of Thai Longan marking with both of

Thailand and aboard.

Instrument – arrange the information and analysis

The situation of Longan in Thailand

-the production

- Longan seed

- planting
 18

-Quantity of the product

- Price

- Marketing

- exporting

The situation of Longan in aboard

-The marketing condition the opportunity for exporting

Objective 2: The analysis of the movement and the forecast of the Longan

exporting value of Thailand

Instrument- arranges the Longan exporting data that get from the mass

communications of economic statistic and finance of Bank of Thailand in 2002-2008

by the 8 years previous quarterly data. The research was divided the movement to T S

C I from Time Series Data in the calculation by divide the movement from the time

series. The forecast of Y can be finding by using the equation below.

Y = T × S ×C × I (3.1)

By

Y = the amount of the information of time series at the periods t

T = the amount of aptitude

C = the variability of the revolution

I = the variability which pervasive

The analysis will divide the component of T S C I from the data of the value of

export the Longan. This is the example of the data which already forecast the value

of export the Longan in the future since 2010-2013.

 19

Chapter 4

General phenomenon and Characteristic

Since the researcher has collected the data about the longan situation in domestic

and international, the results are

4.1 General information of longan

4.1.1 Longan manufacturing

The seeds of Longan grown in Thailand

The seeds of longan grown in Thailand and need in the domestic and

international market which are transformed to fried longan and tinned longan is Edor

longan. The pink longan or Heaw longan or Beaw longan are grown for eating

because they are very heavy and harden to be delivered. When they reach the

destination, the skin always changes although we use the technology to smoke with

the sulfur, we cannot make it back.

1. Edor longan this seed can flower and be harvested before other

seeds. This seed is popular among the international market because it is harden to be

delivered, full of meat, not too juicy. When it is steamed, it will be the high graded

longan. Furthermore, Edor longan can be divided by colour into 2 kinds which are

Red Edor and Green Edor. Red Edor can grow very fast comparing to Green Edor.

The trunk is hard. The skin on the trunk is red brown. The leaves is red. However,

currently, the Red Edor is not famous because it is hard to get the fruits and if it

becomes fruits, it has to be harvest otherwise the fruit will get down to the ground.
 20

Moreover, Green Edor is like Red Edor, but the leaves are green, be

able to be fruits easily, but not frequent. Edor longan can also be divided into two

kinds are Edor Kan Oon and Edor Kan Khang. According to table 4.1

2. Chumpoo longan this is a good taste longan. The trunk is tall. The

branch is easy to be broken. The fruit sometimes comes out. The fruit is rather

rounding. The skin is red brown, smooth, hard. The meat is full, soft and crispy and

pink. The taste is sweet and the seed is small.

3. Heaw longan Hard seed longan, weak trunk, red green brown shell,

perfect growing and harden to dry weather. This seed can be divided into 2 kinds

which are Heaw yod dang and Heaw yod Kheaw. They are different in color of

leaves. The fruit is round, brown skin, and thick skin, full of meat, dry and crispy. The

taste is sweet, fragrant, and juicy.

4. Beaw Khew of E Beae Kheaw hard seeds, good growing, harden

to dried weather, but cannot resist the witches’ bloom disease. Beaw Kheaw can be

divided into 2 kinds which are Beaw kheaw Kan Khang and Beaw Khew Kan Oon.

Beaw Kheaw Kan Khang cannot grow many fruits, but the fruit is very big.

5. Black Leaves or E dam or Kaloak Baidam this seed always

flowers, perfect growing. It is harden to fried weather. The disadvantages are when it

fully grows the fruit will be smaller than others. The skin is round, brown, rough,

thick and harden to be delivered.

 21

Table 4.1 The Longan cultivated area by the Thai strains

Cultivated area
Species (Rai) Share (percent)
Edor longan 183,337 73.45
Heaw longan 19,908 7.98
Beaw Khew 16,925 6.78
Chumpoo longan 16,770 6.72
Other species 12,653 5.07
Total 249,593 100.00

Source: Department of Agriculture.

Growing longan to grow longan, the environment has to be suitable for

the longan.

Earth (Soil) Longan is a plant which needs complete soil which is clay

or marl. Longan need soil which is ventilated easily. The PH has to be 5.0 – 7.0.

Temperature Longan needs 20 – 25 Celsius. But before the fruit come

out, it needs 12 – 22 Celsius.

Humidity Generally, longan needs the humidity; therefore, the longan

should always be wet.

Rainfall It should be between 1200 – 1400 ml/year. If the rainfall is

less than 1200 ml/year, there has to be water to help.

 22

The amount of longan production of Thailand

Longan can be grown in almost part of Thailand, Northern,

Northeastern, Middle, especially in northern Thailand.

Table 4.2 Longan yields divided by a region of Thailand

Sector Product ( ton ) Production area (Kg)

2547 2548 % 2547 2548 %

differentiation differentiation
North 553,433 669,621 20.99 915 905 -1.09

Northeast 19,967 20,144 0.89 453 430 -5.08

Central 23,872 22,413 -6.11 758 656 -13.46

As well as 597,272 712,178 19.24 878 867 -1.25

countries

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550)

Table 4.3 The capacity of Thai Longan in 2547-2548

Sector Area of standing timber (Rai) Production area (Rai)

2547 2548 % 2547 2548 %

differentiation differentiation
North 823,944 888,944 7.79 604,782 740,020 22.36

Northeast 50,157 50,932 1.55 44,034 46,799 6.28

Central 38,833 39,609 2.00 31,478 34,166 8.54

As well as 912,934 978,631 7.20 680,294 820,985 20.68

countries

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550)
 23

Table 4.4 The yields of the Northern Thailand. (2542-2551)

Province 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546

hotbed

North 135,300 336,500 174,400 389,500 326,100

Chiangmai 56,200 126,500 65,200 172,100 136,700

Lamphun 49,300 123,900 62,700 133,700 126,200

Chiang Rai 11,300 32,700 18,600 36,500 26,200

Phayao 4,300 13,400 7,400 15,400 13,500

Nan 3,700 11,300 6,700 14,800 10,500

Tak 3,300 9,400 4,200 5,100 4,300

Lampang 4,100 10,200 4,800 7,700 5,100

Phrae 3,100 9,100 4,800 4,200 3,600

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550)

Table 4.4 The yields of the Northern Thailand. (2542-2551)

Province 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551

hotbed

North 540,000 653,300 405,200 436,600 370,500

Chiangmai 202,300 220,200 140,900 170,900 151,000

Lamphun 215,300 269,800 155,200 152,700 120,400

Chiang Rai 57,100 74,300 50,300 45,900 41,000

Phayao 24,800 41,400 27,400 22,900 18,900

Nan 17,600 20,500 13,200 17,200 13,700

Tak 7,300 10,500 7,500 12,900 13,000

 24

Lampang 10,100 10,300 7,000 9,800 8,700

Phrae 5,500 63,000 3,700 4,300 3,800

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550)

Table 4.5 The season price mixed fresh Longan index in 2545-2549

Months 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 Index Seasonality

seasons index
(adjusted)
January - 139.03 201.07 202.65 221.03 190.95 122.22
February - 128.34 225.36 117.26 215.40 171.59 109.83
March - - 225.86 105.66 216.56 182.70 116.94
April - - 225.86 97.35 187.54 170.25 108.97
May - - 176.59 117.26 194.68 162.84 104.23
June 188.26 154.14 159.90 132.21 196.47 166.20 106.38
July 115.63 122.06 73.35 102.92 90.64 100.96 64.62
August 78.95 80.57 79.65 85.22 76.80 80.28 51.36
September 145.98 76.29 125.02 103.27 127.53 115.62 74.00
October 184.70 - 182.39 194.69 144.53 176.66 113.07
November 209.18 106.95 239.85 195.75 137.62 177.87 113.85
December 213.63 134.25 218.26 182.48 146.19 178.96 114.55
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550)

4.1.2 Longan Marketing

Local market This market is the market that the farmers can

distribute the middlemen in the nearby provinces, the middlemen from Bangkok and

the middlemen who come to the farm directly. When the longan comes out, the

middlemen will come to the farm to negotiate the price of the longan. The middlemen

will pay the deposit first and then the will pay the rest when the longan comes out.
 25

This is good for both of them because the farmers do not have to take their products to

the market and the middlemen can purchase it cheaply.

Wholesaling market there are many important fruit markets in

Bangkok, for example, Janprajit market and Wang mahanakorm, the biggest fruit

market. The merchant at the market will distribute the longan to export and tinned

fruit factory.

4.1.3 Longan Price

The price is not stable in each year like other agricultural products

which depended on the demand and supply. Longan supply is from domestic and

international. The demand means production. It is fluctuated every year. In addition, if

the exporters predict that the next year products are in small amount, get lower order

from international market, the domestic price will get lower. To set up the price

depends on the quality of longan. It can be divided into 3 qualities

Good quality, there are not more than 70 longan / kg.

Medium quality, there are 71 – 80 longan / kg.

Mixed quality, there are more than 81 longan / kg

Averagely, the price of good longan will be at 25 – 35 baht / kg. The medium

quality will be 15 -25 baht / kg. Finally, mixed longan will be 10 -20 baht / kg.
 26

4.1.4 Longan Exporting

The main export market of Thailand

Longan is market in both domestic and international. The domestic

market will be fresh longan. The international market will be fresh longan, fried

longan and tinned longan.

Table 4.6 The quantity and value of exporting Thai fresh Longan to overseas markets
by 2549 to 2550

Country 2549 2549(Jan-Sep) 2550(Jan-Sep)

Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity value

China 52,119 913.36 34,167 628.01 38,463 691.63

Indonesia 42,924 717.89 33,807 571.86 46,307 646.32

Hong kong 12,254 242.51 7,057 161.83 31,318 401.28

Canadians 1,667 43.69 1,347 34.55 1,891 40.57

Malaysia 1,405 17.89 1,099 15.17 2,522 29.57

Singapore 3,306 42.62 2,565 34.17 2,937 35.2

Philippines 1,751 23.6 1,174 18.29 1,399 55.15

Other 3,364 98.09 2,782 75.97 5,893 103.07

World 118,790 2,099.65 83,998 1,539.85 130,730 2,002.79

Source: Customs Department

 27

Table 4.6 The quantity and value of exporting Thai fresh Longan to overseas markets
by 2549 to 2550

Country ∆ 50/49(Jan-Sep) % shape 2550

Quantity Value Quantity Value
China 12.57 10.13 29.42 34.53

Indonesia 36.97 13.02 35.42 32.27

Hong Kong 343.79 147.96 23.96 20.04

Canadians 40.39 17.42 1.45 2.03

Malaysia 129.48 94.92 1.93 1.48

Singapore 14.50 3.01 2.25 1.76

Philippines 19.17 201.53 1.07 2.75

Other 111.83 35.67 4.51 5.15

World 55.63 30.06 100.00 100.00

Source: Customs Department

Table 4.7 Volume and value of exported frozen Longan of Thailand to international
markets in 2549 to 2550

Country 2549 2549 (Jan-Sep) 2550 (Jan-Sep)

Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value

U.S 76 2.94 59.08 2.21 78 5.93
French 258 17.09 218 14.35 110 5.55
New Zealand 2 0.10 2 0.10 21 20.7
Canadians - - - - 35 1.39
Korea 10 0.52 10 0.51 24 0.83
Other 3 0.28 2.92 0.30 31 1.90
World 349 20.93 292 17.47 299 17.67
Source: Customs Department
 28

Table 4.7 Volume and value of exported frozen Longan of Thailand to international
markets in 2549 to 2550

Country ∆ 50/49 % shape 2550

Quantity Value Quantity Value

U.S 32.02 168.33 26.09 33.56
French -49.54 -61.32 36.79 31.41
New Zealand 950.00 1970.00 7.02 11.71
Canadians - - 11.71 7.87
Korea 140.00 62.75 8.03 4.70
Other 961.64 533.33 10.37 10.75
World 2.40 1.14 100.00 100.00
Source: Customs Department

Table 4.8 The Volume and value of exports of Longan dried Thailand to international
markets in 2549 to 2550

Country 2549 2549 (Jan-Sep) 2550 (Jan-Sep)

Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value
China 30.023 439.19 26.906 388.09 35503 562.3
Myanmar 32.559 671.3 26027 353.37 9517 145.06
Laos 14115 326.29 10307 237.82 8304 144.13
Hong Kong 645 87.59 489 65.52 413 44.99
Singapore 187 31.38 158 27.49 228 12.61
For the 50 9.55 44 8.46 107 8.6939
United
Canadians 60 7.47 60 7.45 72 7.70
Other 724 32 489 21.24 1048 28.86
World 78363 1604.82 64.480 1291.44 55192 954.34
Source: Customs Department
 29

Table 4.8 The Volume and value of exports of Longan dried Thailand to international
markets in 2549 to 2550

Country ∆ 50/49(Jan-Sep) % shape 2550

Quantity Value Quantity Value
China 31.95 44.89 -221.82 58.92
Myanmar -63.43 -72.90 440.38 15.20
Laos -19.43 -39.40 134.91 15.10
Hong Kong -15.54 -31.33 107.90 4.71
Singapore 44.30 -54.13 -307.57 1.32
For the United 143.18 2.76 -994.01 0.91
Canadians 20.00 3.36 -138.85 0.81
Other 114.31 35.86 -793.61 3.02
World -14.40 -26.10 100.00 100.00
Source: Customs Department

Table 4.9 The Volume and value of Thai exports of Longan canned to key overseas
markets in 2549 to 2550

Country 2549 2549(Jan-Sep) 2550(Jan-Sep)

Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value
Singapore 2,720 95.59 2,042 71.64 1,983 71.23
Malaysia 3,844 122.41 2,304 73.07 2,052 65.92
U.S 1,685 68.22 1,265 50.84 1,126 44.42
Indonesia 1,252 45.4 803 28.46 1,123 42.18
Cambodia 243 8.01 198 6.47 405 12.53
Vietnam 176 6.59 93 3.38 171 5.98
Japanese 87 3.93 84 3.80 157 5.70
Australia 171 7.25 120 5.09 103 4.37

World 11,279 402.92 7,726 276.27 8,003 286.35

Source: Customs Department

 30

Table 4.9 The Volume and value of Thai exports of Longan canned to key overseas
markets in 2549 to 2550

Country ∆ 50/49(Jan-Sep) % shape 2550

Quantity Value Quantity Value
Singapore -2.89 -0.57 24.78 24.88
Malaysia -10.94 -9.79 25.64 23.02
U.S -10.99 -12.63 14.07 15.51
Indonesia 39.85 48.21 14.03 14.73
Cambodia 104.55 93.66 5.06 4.38
Vietnam 83.87 76.92 2.14 2.09
Japanese 86.90 50.00 1.96 1.99
Australia -14.17 -14.15 1.29 1.53

World 3.59 3.65 100.00 100.00

Source: Customs Department

4.2 Longan international situation

4.2.1 Hong Kong market

Hong Kong has imported many fruits from other countries about

15000 million baht a year. Imported fruits are from hot and cold areas which are sold

in domestic and international. Hong Kong is the most important market for Thailand.

Hong Kong will export longan to Macao and southern China. Currently, people have

a lot of purchasing power and it is a special economy which has a lot of factories.

Longan will be consumed at hotels and restaurants to support the tourists’ need.

The opportunity in exporting longan to Hong Kong is Hong Kong is

free trade market. Longan from Thailand is very popular among people and it tends to

be exported increasingly, see the table 4.10

4.2.2 Indonesia market

Indonesia is a big fruit market. 120 million people and the popularity

in consuming Thai fruits are increasing. They always directly import longan to their

country.
 31

The opportunity in exporting Longan to Indonesia is to distribute the

product to the Singapore middlemen since 1991. The quantity of importing is

increasing, but some years tend to be decreased, see in table 4.10

4.2.3 Singapore market

Singapore is the market that imports the international products.

Fresh longan imported to the Singapore market is high quality longan. It is distributed

around the China Town.

The opportunity in Singapore market, there are the importation to

Singapore market. The longan is very high quality. Singapore will import the longan

after durian and export longan to Indonesia.

Table 4.10 The Volume and value of exports of Thai Longan fresh. By exporting
markets

Country
2540 2541 2542 2543
World
Quantity 81,631,592 2,579,126 44,021,562 98,998,302

Value 2,119,855,176 149,356,219 1,147,292,051 2,042,064,115

Hong
Kong Quantity 63,528,779 2,150,028 20,913,757 52,282,272

Value 1,597,934,271 112,842,780 501,531,296 957,985,976

Indonesia
Quantity 6,922,429 - 6,959,791 18,937,354

Value 151,036,346 - 182,177,233 387,233,653

China
Quantity 1,263,489 2,381 2,931,548 9,930,841

Value 40,935,596 206,961 44,414,816 218,897,530

Canadians
Quantity 1,404,428 364,369 2,128,255 2,666,637

Value 69,133,536 32,347,293 104,349,061 87,263,948

Taiwan
Quantity - - - 2,429,481

Value - - - 44,742,936
Source: Department of Business Economics
 32

Chapter 5

Research Result

The analysis of the movement and prediction in longan exportation

of Thailand

To analyze the Time series Analysis is to see the movement of the longan

exportation by using the export data during 2001 – 2008 to see the tendency, seasonal

index, cyclical trend and irregular trend.

5.1 Separating components of time series

Table 5.1 The Value of Longan exports year 2544 to 2551.

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Jan-Mar) (Apr-Jun) ( Jul-Sep ) (Oct-Dec)
2544 191.54 259.88 948.75 149
2545 188.14 367.68 1487.61 104.69
2546 168.42 343.04 1017.01 446.49
2547 463.67 400.19 950.83 171.8
2548 492.88 188.65 688.51 348.23
2549 482.22 437.51 884.93 388.57
2550 600.55 353.9 894.29 349.39
2551 414.55 267.05 888.84 566.91
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics. The cooperation of the Department of Customs (2550).

5.1.1 The secular trend of longan exportation (T)

The trend will show what way the data in series goes. Analyzing the trend, the

graph will be in curve and in equation

( 5.1)
 33

The longan export data during 2001 – 2008 quarterly shows in table 5.1 which

used to analyze the time series data leading to predict the value in exportation. We can

see that the data is liner to choose the estimation.

From

Five a=
∑ y = 15905.72 = 497.053 ( 5.2 )
n 32

b=
∑ Yt = 22727.8 = 2.083 ( 5.3 )
∑ t 10912
2

Possess

( Origin 11 January. 2005 , t has a half quarter units)

1. Move origin to 2001 and change the value of a

= 432.48

2. Multiplied by 2, change t

Equations

3. Origin moved to the middle

Equation has the following trends

 34

The starting point is 15 February 2001, t is expressed in the quarter, and Y is

Longan export value expressed in millions of baht per quarter.

Quarterly is three months. In a year, there are 4 quarterly. This study has

studied for 8 years since 2001 – 2008, 32 quarterlies. First quarterly is January

2001 – March 2001 and the last quarterly is October 2008 – December 2008.

From the equation, if you need to know the trend of each quarterly, you can

represent t = 0, 1, 2, 3… 29, 30, and 31. In the first quarterly, it starts with t = 0

because it is the beginning. For example,

Secular trend of 1st quarterly (January - March) 2001

= 436.65 + 4.166(0) = 436.65

Secular trend of 2nd quarterly (April - June) 2001

= 436.65 + 4.166(1)= 440.816

Secular trend of 3rd quarterly (October - December) 2001

= 436.65 + 4.166(31) = 565.796

The result of the analysis of the tendency of longan exportation to abroad can

be seen in table 5.2

Table 5.2 The Value Quarterly Trends (T)

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Jan-Mar) (Apr-Jun) ( Jul-Sep ) (Oct-Dec)
2544 436.65 440.82 444.98 449.15
2545 453.31 457.50 461.65 465.81
2546 469.98 474.14 478.31 482.48
2547 486.64 490.81 494.97 499.14
2548 503.31 507.50 511.64 515.80
2549 520 524.14 528.30 532.47
2550 536.63 540.80 544.97 549.13
2551 553.30 557.50 561.63 565.80
Source: calculated
 35

Figure 5.2 Quarterly export Longan trends year 2544 to 2551

From a figure that shows the value of Thai exports Longan likely to increase

continuously.

5.1.2 Seasonal Variation (S)

To calculate the seasonal variation can use the Ratio to trend method or

Percentage of trend method. Because the data is quarterly data, using Ratio to trend is

the best way to do, can see in table 5.3.

Y
How to calculate seasonal variation * 100 ( 5.4)
T

191.54
= * 100 = 43.87
436.65

Use the number from table 5.3 to get Mean and Median in each quarterly to

compare which one can be the seasonal variation.

 36

Table 5.3 The Value and volume indices of export season Longan (S)

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Jan-Mar) (Apr-Jun) ( Jul-Sep ) (Oct-Dec)
2544 43.87 58.95 213.21 33.17
2545 41.50 80.37 322.24 22.47
2546 35.84 72.35 212.63 92.54
2547 95.28 81.54 192.10 34.42
2548 97.93 37.17 134.57 67.51
2549 92.74 83.47 167.51 72.98
2550 111.91 65.44 164.10 63.66
2551 74.92 47.90 158.26 100.20
total 594 527.20 1564.61 486.92
mean 74.25 65.90 195.58 60.86
Source: calculated

The figures from Table 5.3 to determine the Mean and Median value each

quarter to be comparable to the values which are possible values of C move

seasonally.

Mean

Mean is a average point of the data. Mean in each quarterly can be calculated

by the total of each index in quarterly divided by year.

1st quarterly Mean = 594 / 8 = 74.25

Median

Median is the data that is in the middle of the whole data. It can be calculated

by using the whole data and then make it least to most; as a result, the middle data is

median.

1st quarterly index

= 35.84, 41.50, 43.87, 74.92, 92.74, 95.28, 97.93, 111.91

Median is the data which is at the middle which is 92.74 and 95.28

= 92.74 + 95.28 / 2 = 94.01

 37

Analysis to the table 5.3 present value index of export value season at the

Longan Table 5.4

Table 5.4 The Index of the value of the Longan exporting season

Quarter Mean Mean To Median

adjust
already
1 74.25 74.88 94.01
2 65.90 66.47 76.36
3 195.58 197.26 202.37
4 60.86 61.38 70.25
Total 396.60 400 443
Source: calculated

To calculate the seasonal variation can choose Mean and Median. You can

choose the total of 4 quarterlies which is the closest to 400 because the each of

seasonal index has to be in percentage form. The seasonal value is 100; therefore, 4

quarterlies must be 400.

The total mean = 369.60 and total median is 443; therefore, calculating the

seasonal variation, the researcher can use mean, but mean is 369.60, the median

should be changed in each quarterly comparing to the rule of three. So the seasonal

variation is:

1st quarterly, mean 396.60, index 74.25

Mean 400, index = 400 * 74.25 / 369.60 = 74.88

2nd quarterly, mean 396.60.60, index 65.90

Mean 400, index = 400*65.90/396.60 = 66.47

3rd quarterly, mean 396.60.60, index 65.90

Mean 400, index = 400*195.58/396.60 = 197.26

 38

4th quarterly, mean 396.60.60, index 65.90

Mean 400, index = 400*60.86/396.60 = 61.38

From the above values can be displayed in the form of expression lines

seasonal movements in the value of exports to foreign Longan follows.

Figure 5.4 The value of the Longan exporting index season

The result above shows the line about the seasonal variation of the value in

exportation abroad. From the seasonal index, it shows that seasonal index in 3rd

quarterly is 195.58% which means the value in exportation are higher than the

average exportation 95.58% like other quarterly. We can see that because of the

seasonal tendency, the 3rd quarterly is the highest because the farmers can harvest

longan which makes the value is 95.58%.

 39

5.1.3 Cyclical variation (C)

Calculate the Cyclical Variation by using Residual method which means to get

rid the T, S and I off from the time series data. Multiple T and S from each quarterly

and then divided by Y to get C*I in the form of percentage called “Percentage of

usual.”

Y TSCI
= = CI ( 5.5 )
TS TS

191.54 191.54
st = = 0.58575 * 100 = 58.575
CI in 1 quarterly is from 436.658 * 0.7488 327

74.88
( 191.54 is Y, 436.685 is T, 0.7488 is S takes = 0.7488 in 1st quarterly) will
100

get CI showed in table 5.5.

Table 5.5 The Value CI

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Jan-Mar) (Apr-Jun) ( Jul-Sep ) (Oct-Dec)
2544 58.58 89 108.08 54
2545 55.43 121.01 163.36 37
2546 47.86 109.03 108 156.12
2547 127.24 122.67 97.38 58.01
2548 130.77 56.02 68.22 110
2549 123.84 125.58 84.92 119
2550 150 98.45 83.20 104
2551 100.06 72.06 80.22 163.24
Source: calculated

After that cross I out from C*I by using Weight moving average, the

stabilizers are 1,2,1 use the Binomial Coefficients theory.

 40

C in 2nd quarterly of 2001 can be from

58.58 * (1) + 89 * ( 2) + 108.08 * (1) 344.66

= = = 86.17
4 4

C in 3rd quarterly of 2001 can be from

89 * (1) + 108.08 * ( 2) + 54 * (1) 359.16

= = = 90
4 4

The number from table 5.5 by using cross I out from C, get C in table 5.6

Table 5.6 The Value of the movement cycle (C)

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Jan-Mar) (Apr-Jun) ( Jul-Sep ) (Oct-Dec)
2544 - 86.17 90 68.67
2545 67.22 115.20 121.20 73.20
2546 90.22 93.50 120.30 132.32
2547 109 117.50 93.86 85.20
2548 107 77.76 75.62 105.04
2549 123.11 115 103.61 112
2550 125.61 107.53 92.21 110.3
2551 108.86 81.1 99 127
Source: calculated

Values C calculated from present line cycle of movement according to the

value of Thai exports Longan the graph at 5.7

 41

Figure 5.6 Shows cycle the of movement according to the value of exports Longan.

We can see that the cyclical variation result has the lowest point at 1st

quarterly of 2002 which is 67.22 and then decreases gradually to the 4th quarterly of

2003 which is 132.32. After that it decreases and increases cyclically because the

lowest and the highest are very close so we cannot calculate the movement.

Therefore, to predict the value in longan exportation cannot use the cyclical variation.

5.1.4 Irregular variation (I)

Calculate by using Residual, get C to calculate C*I of each quarterly and then

I will come out.

CI
The equator =I ( 5.6 )
C

I in 2nd quarterly of 2001is 103.28 can be from

( 89/86.17)*100 = 103.28, (89 value is CI, 86.17 is C)

We will get the irregular variation, see in table 5.7

 42

Table 5.7 Value movement disorders of Longan exporting value (I)

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Jan-Mar) (Apr-Jun) ( Jul-Sep ) (Oct-Dec)
2544 - 103.28 120.10 78.64
2545 82.46 105.04 134.80 50.55
2546 53.05 116.61 89.78 118
2547 116.73 104.4 103.75 68.09
2548 122.21 72.04 90.21 104.72
2549 100.60 109.2 82 106.25
2550 119.42 91.56 90.23 94.29
2551 91.92 88.85 81.03 128.54
Source: calculated

From the irregular variation of the longan export data in table 5.7 can be

shown in the line of irregular variation in figure 5.7

Figure 5.7 Show cycle of movement according to the value of exports Longan.

From the irregular variation, it can explain that the irregular variation in

exportation in 2nd quarterly is 103.28%. It means that the value of exportation in 2nd

quarterly of 2544 is higher than the average quarterly.

 43

103.28- 100 = 3.28 %

In 4th quarterly of 2001, the irregular variation is 78.64%. It means that the value in

exporting is lower than the average quarterly.

100 – 78.64 = 21.36 %

Furthermore, the irregular variation in other quarterly can be explained too.

5.2 The prediction in exporting longan internationally in the future

When you get T, S, C and I and can predict the value of exportation to

international market by getting the data to multiply in Y=T*S*C*I. It will show the

prediction only T and S because T and S show only the usual and C and I is not

influenced to the data. C has to be 10 - 25 year. I is lacked of data and happen because

of flooding, weather and government policy. Furthermore, the data change is not

always happened. Therefore, the time series data used to prediction is Y=T*S in next

5 years which is 2009 – 2014 which has 20 quarterlies. Represent t in liner and t = 32,

33, 34, 35, …, 48, 49, 50, 51

Y = 436.65 + 4.166 t

Measuring potential export value each quarter of the year 2552.

1st quarterly of 2009 Y = 436.65 + 4.166 (32)

= 569.96

2nd quarterly of 2009 Y = 436.65 + 4.166 ( 33 )

= 574.13

3rd quarterly of 2009 Y = 436.65 + 4.166 ( 34 )

= 578.30
 44

4th quarterly of 2009 Y = 436.65 + 4.166 ( 35 )

= 582.46

For the tendency in each quarterly, it can be calculated which can be seen in

table 5.8

After that take the tendency multiple to seasonal index in each quarterly, then

you will get the quarterly export for the future.

1st quarterly of 2009 TS = 569.96*0.7488

= 462.80

2nd quarterly of 2009 TS = 574.13*0.6647

= 381.62

3rd quarterly of 2009 TS = 578.30*1.9726

= 1140.75

4th quarterly of 2009 TS = 582.46*0.6138

= 357.51

For forecasting the value of exports for each quarter of the year is calculated

in other similar display by measuring trends in Table 5.8

 45

Table 5.8 The Value of exports value Longan forecast in 2552-2556

Months trends Index seasons (%) Cost forecast

2552
(Jan-Mar) 74.88 462.80
(Apr-Jun) 569.96 66.47 381.62
( Jul-Sep ) 574.13 197.26 1140.75
(Oct-Dec) 578.30 61.38 357.51
582.48
2553
(Jan-Mar) 586.63 74.88 439.27
(Apr-Jun) 590.80 66.47 392.70
( Jul-Sep ) 594.80 197.26 1173.30
(Oct-Dec) 599.12 61.38 367.74

2554
(Jan-Mar) 603.29 74.88 451.74
(Apr-Jun) 607.46 66.47 403.78
( Jul-Sep ) 611.62 197.26 1206.48
(Oct-Dec) 615.80 61.38 377.80

2555
(Jan-Mar) 619.80 74.88 464.11
(Apr-Jun) 624.12 66.47 414.85
( Jul-Sep ) 628.30 197.26 1239.38
(Oct-Dec) 632.45 61.38 388.20

2556
(Jan-Mar) 636.62 74.88 272.28
(Apr-Jun) 640.78 66.47 425.93
( Jul-Sep ) 644.95 197.26 1272.23
(Oct-Dec) 649.12 61.38 398.43

Source: calculated
 46

Figure 5.8 Shows the value of the trend forecast export value between Longan

quarters copyright 2552-2556

From table 5.8 and figure 5.8 can explain that

In 2009, 1st quarterly, the trend of exporting longan to international market is

462.80 million baht. In 2nd quarterly, the value in export is 381.90 million baht. In 3rd

quarterly, the value in exporting is 1140.75 million baht. And 4th quarterly is 357.51

million baht.

In 2010, 5th quarterly, it increases from 4th quarterly is 439.27. 6th quarterly

the export decreases to 392.70 million baht. In 7th quarterly increases 1173.30 million

baht and 8th quarterly is 367.74 million baht.

In 2011, 9th quarterly, it increases from 8th quarterly 451.74 million baht. In

10th quarterly, it decreases to 403.78 million baht. In 11th quarterly, it increases to

1206.48 million baht. And in 12th quarterly, it decreased 377.80 million baht.

In 2012, 13th quarterly, it increases to 464.11 million baht. In 14th quarterly,

it decreases to 414.85 million baht. In 15th quarterly, it increases to 1239.38 million

baht. And in 16th quarterly, it decreases to 388.20 million baht.

 47

In 2013, in 17th quarterly, it decreases to 272.28 million baht. 18th quarterly,

it increases to 425.93 million baht. In 19th quarterly, it increases to 1272.23 million

baht and 20th quarterly; it decreases to 398.43 million baht.

Therefore, the value in exporting longan in each year are affected by S

because the time series data Y=T*S cause the trend of exporting longan to the

international market are the same, figure 5.8. The rise and the fall in exporting is the

same, but the value is not the same

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Chapter 6

Conclusion and Suggestion

6.1 Conclusion

From the study of Longan export marketing in Thailand and oversea in the fact of

production, price, marketing, exporting and the analysis the movement and the

forecasting of the Thai Longan exporting for the future

6.1.1 The situation of Longan in Thailand

The production: there are 5 kinds of longan in Thailand, Edor longan, Pink

longan, Heaw longan – Hard seed longan and Beaw Khew of E Beae Kheaw. The

most popular is Edor, is the kind that faster blossom and crop more those other kinds.

Moreover, it is very popular for exporting because it has more durable when it ship to

the customer. it can be transmute to dried longan because of full of meat and not too.

By the way, another kind can also transmute to dried longan but the quality is totally

different from Edor. Logan grows well in the combination of clay and the clay and

soil substance which good at water ventilation solid is needed for growing longan.

The clay should have the amount of acid and base around 5.0-7.0. The temperature

that good for longan is about 20-24 degree. And during it blossom and bloom is

around 15-20 degree for 8-10 weeks

Thailand grows longan everywhere, but they are for trading to deliver to

factories especially the northern and northeast of Thailand. Chiangmai, Lamphun,

Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Tak, and Prea are the major growing area of Thailand.
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Marketing

1. Local marketing is the market that the farmer can sell their product to the

middleman in their province or from Bangkok or the exporter that come to get

product from the farmer directly. By the way, when longan bloom the distributor will

come and negotiate with the farmer for all longan which these both of them will get

the benefit.

2. Export marketing is the centres of fruit export locate in Bangkok such as

Junpajit and the biggest market is Talard-Wangmahanakorn. The distributor will sell

their product to the exporter for send to the industrial factory for transmute to the

canned fruit.

Price

The price of longan is not stable during a year which it same as other

agriculture goods. It depends on the demand and supply. On the other hand, Logan

has dominant feature which different from others that longan has the demand in both

of Thailand and aboard. In the part of supply, the quantity of the production is very

unstable. For example, in 1995, price of longan is very high which there low product

is. However, in 1994, the product of longan is very high that make the price is low.

Export

Longan also has the market in country and the export product especially fresh longan

for Thai market and freeze longan, dried longan, and canned longan for global market.

These can gain a lot of profits to Thailand. The major export markets are Hong-Kong,

Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Singapore Canada etc.

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6.1.2 Global/International longan market

Hong Kong is the most important longan market. People in this country have

high purchasing power because there are many manufacturers in this country. Almost

imported longan will be and cooked consumed in restaurant for tourist. The number of

exporting longan tends to be increased.

Indonesia is big fruit market. Many Indonesians love to eat Thai fruit. It is very

popular in Indonesia nowadays and gradually increases.

Singapore is important international food import market. The imported Longan

from Thailand can attract many people. Not only importing Longan from Thailand but

also from other country in different time. They import dried Longan as well. Some

imported longans are re-exported to Indonesia.

6.1.3 The result of analysis and the forecast of the export value of Longan

When we analyze the result of the export value of the movement, analyzing the

tendency when write it in a graph, it will be linear. The trend equator is

Y = 436.65 + 4.166 t (6.1)

(Beginning with 15 February 2002, t is quarter, Y the Longan export value,

million baht/quarter)

1. Secular Trend or Long-term movement : T

From the analyzing we can see the yearly tendency is increasing that mean the

Thai longan export rate is also increase.

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2. Seasonal or Periodic Movement : S

The movement analysis of longan export are top in the third quarter because it

is time of harvest and go down after harvesting time.

3. Cyclical Movement : C

From the analysis of circle movement of the export value, it starts with the

depressed and get better until the peak point and end with the depressed again. We

can see that this is a normal movement of the export.

4. Irregular Movement : I

The analyzing movement of the unusual export data we find that the unusual

movement is near 100 which it has no serious.

5. Forecast

The forecast value of exporting in 2009-2013 is continued to increase and the

export value in each quarter is not stable. Which it relate to the longan production of

Thailand.

6.2 Constraint of the research

For this research, the researcher has a limit data because some information was

kept for only the group of the exporter. Therefore, the result and the forecast analysis

might not perfect from these less information.

6.3 Suggestion for the future study

Since this study analyzed only data which gathered in the past, the result from

this research may not complete. Therefore, the researcher should consider and analyze

other factors. It will make this research perfect. The export amount forecast in
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2552-2556 was forecasted by time series by dividing components of time series into 4

parts which are T, S, C, and I. This is easy to understand and can be adapted to use in

management. We can know causes and result of relative in that time series and the

executive can analyze what are causes and reasons of change. However, dividing time

series also has the limitation for the forecast. It has to have a hypothesis of future data

changing which it has to similar with the past. In addition, this is an obstacle in

forecasting the values of longan export because we cannot sure that are there any

affect with the exported value. Therefore, we should to study other situation and other

condition that can affect with exported value.

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References

Aranee Tapri.2002. Has studied the competitiveness of export of fresh,Research,

Faculty of Econmic. Chiang Mai University

Department of Export Promotion. “Export longan”( Online ) .http://www.depthai.go.th

Export-Import Bank of Thailand.(Online).http://www.exim.go.th

Kanung Yothayai.1998.Analysis of potential export to longan drying republic of

China, Research, Faculty of Econmic, Chiang Mai University

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. “Export longan” (Online) .

http://www.moac.go.th

Ministry of commerce.2008.”Statistics on International trade of Thailand” (Online)

http://www.moc.go.th

Piyawan Sakuljaruen.1996.Opportunites to expand export markets longan, Research,

Faculty of Economic, Chiang Mai University

Siwaporn Krittayaapinan.2004.Analysis of trends export value of Thai jasmine rice to

China, Research, Faculty of Economic, Chiang Mai University

The economic reporting is from the mass communications of economic statistic and

finance of Bank of Thailand. “Export longan” (Online) .http://www.nso.go.th

Warong Teerasopon.2004.Prediction of exporting Thai silk, Research, Faculty of

Economic, Chiang Mai University

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