Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Nice Recovery
HSI : 31,412
Inbound tourism gathered pace
Tourism recovery well underway. Inbound tourism in Hong Visitor arrivals growth – overnight visitors
Kong continued its recovery path in 2H17. In 11M17, total
number of visitor arrivals grew 3.1% to 52.9m. This was mainly
Yoy, % Nov-17: 8.5% y -o-y
led by the return of overnight visitors. Overnight visitors
60 11M17: 5.0% y-o-y
numbered 25.2m during the same period, up 5% y -o-y , and
made up 47.7% of total visitor arrivals. 50
40
Number of overnight visitors from China grew by larger 6.4% 30
in 11M17, which compared favourably with the corresponding
20
growth of 1.6% for day -trippers. Overall, there were 40.2m
10
China visitors during the same period, up 3.6% y -o-y, reversing
0
the downtrend in 2015 and 2016.
(10)
Visitor arrivals growth – overall (20)
(30)
Jul/08
Jul/09
Jul/10
Jul/11
Jul/12
Jul/13
Jul/14
Jul/15
Jul/16
Jul/17
Jan/08
Jan/09
Jan/10
Jan/11
Jan/12
Jan/13
Jan/14
Jan/15
Jan/16
Jan/17
Yoy, %
Nov-17: 7% y -o-y
50 11M17: 3.1% y -o-y
40
Source: HK Tourism Board, CEIC
30
20
10
0
(10)
Visitor arrivals growth – overnight visitors from China
(20)
(30) Yoy , %
Nov -17: 12.6% y -o-y
Jul/08
Jul/09
Jul/10
Jul/11
Jul/12
Jul/13
Jul/14
Jul/15
Jul/16
Jul/17
Jan/08
Jan/09
Jan/10
Jan/11
Jan/12
Jan/13
Jan/14
Jan/15
Jan/16
Jan/17
Jul/09
Jul/10
Jul/11
Jul/12
Jul/13
Jul/14
Jul/15
Jul/16
Jul/17
Jan/08
Jan/09
Jan/10
Jan/11
Jan/12
Jan/13
Jan/14
Jan/15
Jan/16
Jan/17
Page 2
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
Visitor arrivals growth – China With new tourist attractions such as Water World at Ocean Park
and infrastructure projects including Express Rail Link coming
Yoy , % onstream, we estimate total number of visitor arrivals will grow
Nov -17: 8.6% y -o-y
at a 4-year CAGR of 4% between 2017-21, with similar growth
60 11M17: 3.6% y -o-y
in both overnight and day -trippers. Mainland China should
50
continue to lead the growth. For 2018, we forecast tourist
40
arrivals to grow 3.9% with overnight and same-day travellers
30
expected to post 4.1% and 3.9% respectively.
20
10
New hotels in focus. In 3Q17, two new hotels opened for
0
business. They were Penta Hong Kong, Tuen Mun and We Hotel
(10) in Sai Ying Pun. Converted from Luks Industrial Building near the
(20) Tuen Mun West Rail Station, Penta Hong Kong is a Medium
(30) Tariff hotel with 298 guest rooms and is managed by Penta
(40) Management. We Hotel is a small hotel with only 48 rooms. As
Jul/08
Jul/09
Jul/10
Jul/11
Jul/12
Jul/13
Jul/14
Jul/15
Jul/16
Jul/17
Jan/08
Jan/09
Jan/10
Jan/11
Jan/12
Jan/13
Jan/14
Jan/15
Jan/16
Jan/17
Yoy, %
Nov -17 2.2% y -o-y
25 11M17 3.8% y -o-y
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)
Source: DBS Vickers
(20)
(25)
Sep/12
Sep/13
Sep/14
Sep/15
Sep/16
Sep/17
Mar/13
Mar/14
Mar/15
Mar/16
Mar/17
Page 3
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
Other major hotels that will open for business in 2018 include Following an estimated growth of 5.4% in 2017, we forecast
Rosewood Hong Kong in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hotel V ic in North the supply of hotel rooms will increase at a 4-year CAGR of
Point, and Ocean Park Marriott Hotel. Rosewood Hong Kong is 4.1% from 2018 to 2021, broadly in line with our projected
part of V ictoria Dockside, a 3msf mixed-use development growth of overnight visitors in the same period. This leads to
owned by New World Development on the Tsim Sha Tsui our forecast that overall hotel occupancy will stay high at 88-
waterfront. Targeted for opening in mid-2018, this luxury hotel 91% in 2018-21. In addition, a growing number of
will provide 398 guest rooms and be the first in Hong Kong to strategically located three and four-star rated hotels, especially
operate under the luxury “Rosewood” brand. We believe on Hong Kong Island, is expected to be redeveloped into office
Rosewood Hong Kong could produce synergies with office and properties. Office prices have been surging rapidly. According
retail portions of V ictoria Dockside. to J ones Lang LaSalle, the overall office price appreciated
>17% in the first eleven months of 2017. Against this
backdrop, property values could be substantially enhanced if
converted or redeveloped into office use from hotel. Recently,
Town Planning Board approved the redevelopment of the 263-
room Crown Plaza Hong Kong Causeway Bay into a
commercial property with GFA of 160,900sf. Potential
redevelopment of existing hotels into office or commercial use
could moderate the net growth of hotel room supply which in
turn has a positive implication on occupancy and RevPAR
growth.
Page 4
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
Occupancy continued its uptrend. Aided by a return of Hotel occupancy – High tariff A
ov ernight visitors, the Hong Kong hotel industry has been
witnessing a gradual recovery. The overall occupancy stood at
89% in 11M17, up 2ppts y -o-y. Among different categories of (%)
hotels, Medium tariff hotels (three star-rated equivalent) 95
recorded the strongest occupancy gains. In 11M17, occupancy
of Medium tariff hotels rose 5ppts to 91%. During the same 90
period, occupancy rates of High tariff A hotels (five star-rated
equivalent) and High tariff B hotels (four star-rated equivalent)
reached 86% and 90%, up 2ppts and 1ppt respectively. 85
80
Hotel occupancy – overall
75
(%)
100 70
Sep
May
Jan
Mar
Aug
Apr
Nov
Feb
Jun
Dec
Oct
Jul
95
2016 2017
90
Source: HK Tourism Board, CEIC
85
80
70
(%)
Sep
May
Jan
Mar
Feb
Aug
Nov
Apr
Jun
Oct
Dec
Jul
100
2016 2017
95
Source: HK Tourism Board, CEIC
90
85
80
75
70
Sep
May
Jan
Mar
Aug
Apr
Nov
Feb
Jun
Dec
Oct
Jul
2016 2017
Page 5
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
(%) (HK$/night)
100 1600
95 1500
90 1400
85 1300
80 1200
75 1100
70 1000
Sep
May
Jan
Mar
Sep
Aug
May
Apr
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
Aug
Nov
Apr
Feb
Jun
Dec
Oct
Jul
Jun
Dec
Oct
Jul
2016 2017 2016 2017
Overall room rate has resumed positive growth. Medium tariff hotels stand out. On the back of improved
Compared to occupancy, the improvement in room rates occupancy and room rate, RevPAR of medium tariff hotels
lagged behind. The overall room rate fell marginally by 0.3% y - recorded 15.3% growth in 11M17. Coupled with positive
o-y in 11M17. Nonetheless, the rate recovery has exhibited operating leverage, gross operating profit could grow by
improving signs with modest growth of 0.8-4.2% since Aug- >20% in 2017. RevPAR of High tariff B hotels grew a steady
17. Room rates of Medium tariff hotels posted respectable 4.1% in 11M17 but those for High tariff A hotels were 2.5%
growth of 9% in 11M17, while room rate for High tariff B lower. Overall, hotel RevPAR went up 2% in 11M17. With the
hotels grew a modest 2.9%. On the other hand, High tariff A overall occupancy expected to stay high, we forecast the
hotels continued to experience rate pressure. Room rate RevPAR to be 3-5% higher in 2018.
dropped 4.8% in 11M17 but the yearly decline has narrowed
in recent months. RevPAR (11M17)
(%)
20
10
-10
High Tariff A High Tariff B Med Tariff
Page 6
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
SHKP expanding its hotel footprint. In Oct-17, Sun Hung Stock recommendations. We like Far East Consortium for its
Kai Properties (SHKP) defeated nine other developers to secure strong exposure to three and four-star hotel markets which are
a hotel site on the Cheung Sha Wan waterfront through staging a nice recovery. We also recommend a BUY on
gov ernment tender for HK$5.06bn or HK$13,500psf. The Langham Hospitality Investments. The Langham and Cordis
winning bid was well above the market estimate and similar to hotels continue to outperform other five star rated hotels with
the price Harbour Centre Development paid for the site where modest RevPAR growth. Renovation at Eaton should enable
The Murray, Hong Kong a Niccolo hotel is in Central for hotel the hotelier to better satisfy the needs of modern travellers.
dev elopment in 2013. This reflected SHKP’s strong
determination to win the tender. We expect this hotel
dev elopment to offer 500 guest rooms with GFA of 374,200sf.
Total investment cost is estimated at HK$8bn which translates
URA’s Peel Street/ Graham Street Hotel site
into HK$16m per room.
Page 7
HK Hotel Sector / Industry Focus
Far East Consortium
Bloomberg: 35 HK | Reuters: 0035.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Page
HK Hotel Sector / Industry Focus
Langham Hospitality Investments
Bloomberg: 1270 HK | Reuters: 1270.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Recovery on track
BUY Riding on the hotel market recovery
L ast Traded Price ( 12 Jan 2018): HK$3.58 (HSI : 31,412)
Pric e Target 12-mth: HK$3.78 (6% upside) (Prev : HK$3.60) Facelift to cater to modern travellers’ needs
Po tential Catalyst: Recovery of the Hong Kong hotel s ector
Wh ere we differ: Market has s imilar DPU estimate for FY17 BUY with HK$3.78 TP
Page 11
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
DBSVHK recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating s ystem, defined as follows:
S TRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable s hare price catalysts within this time frame)
B U Y (>15% total return over the next 12 months for s mall caps, >10% for large caps)
H O LD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FU LLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
S ELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Page 12
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
A N ALYST CERTIFICATION
The res earch analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his /her
compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to s pecific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst (s)
primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does not s erve as an officer of
the is s uer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trus t, an officer of the mana gement company of the
real estate investment trust; and in the case of any oth er entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for the
management of the is suer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report or
his associate does not have financial interests 2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has
procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of
res earch reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a s eparate and independent team to the investment
banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information h eld by either the research or investment
banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's compensation to any s pecific investment ba nking function of the
DBS Group.
2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK nor DBSV HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this
Res earch Report.
3. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, DBSV HK, their s ubsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total
is s ued s hare capital in Langham Hospitality Investment Limited (1270 HK) recommended in this report as of 11 Jan 2018.
4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), DBSV HK or their s ubsidiaries and/or other affilia tes
beneficially own a total of 1% of the is suer's market capitalization of Langham Hospitality Investment Limited (1270 HK) as of 11 Jan
2018.
6. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, DBSV HK, their s ubsidiaries and/or other affiliates of D BSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public
offering of s ecurities for Far East Consortium International Limited (35 HK) in the past 12 months, as of 31 Dec 2017.
DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of s e curities
as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishin g to
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dis cussed in this document s hould contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
1
An associate is defined as (i ) the s pouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor s tep -child, of the analys t; (ii) the trus tee of a trus t of
which the analys t, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor s tep -child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii ) another pers on
accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
2
Financial interes t is defined as interes ts that are commonly known financial interes t, such as inves tment in the securities i n respect of an issuer or
a new lis ting applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new lis ting applicant and the firm or analys is. This
term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or inves tments in any collective inves tment s cheme other than an issuer or
new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investm ents in s ecurities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
Page 13
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
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Page 14
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
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D BS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited
th
18 Floor Man Yee building, 68 Des Voeux Road Central, Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2820-4888, Fax: (852) 2868-1523
Company Regn. No. 31758
Page 15
Industry Focus
Hong Kong Hotel Sector
I N DONESIA TH AILAND
PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia) D BS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd
C o ntact: Maynard Priajaya Arif C o ntact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul
DBS Bank Tower 989 Siam Piwat Tower Building,
Ciputra World 1, 32/F 9th, 14th-15th Floor
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Tel: 62 21 3003 4900 Tel. 66 2 857 7831
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Page 16