GIEWS Country Brief

Afghanistan

Reference Date: 08-September-2010

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

 2010 wheat harvest estimated above average but lower
than last year’s record level
 Wheat prices have risen in recent months after a long
and steady decline since August 2008
 Pockets of food insecurity remain despite two
consecutive good cereal harvests and declining wheat
prices

Current wheat harvest below last year’s record

level
Winter wheat harvest was completed in May-June and the spring
wheat is currently being gathered. The Ministry of Agriculture,
Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) has forecast 2010 wheat production at
4.53 million tonnes, about 11 percent below last year’s record crop but
some 15 percent above average. About 68 percent of the production
comes from the 46 percent of area under irrigation. According to the
MAIL Report this reasonably good harvest was due to the generally
satisfactory rainfall distribution, especially in the beginning and the
later part of the season, increased use of improved seeds and
fertilizers and timely control of pests and diseases. A significant
increase in the area planted with fruit trees has been reported. The
overall conditions of cereal and horticultural crops, as well as animal
health and animal production are satisfactory.

In 2009 wheat harvest almost doubled from the drought affected

output of 2008. An expansion in area planted due to the
successful poppy cultivation reduction program, favourable
weather conditions and increased use of agricultural inputs.

Total cereal output for 2010, is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes

(including rice in paddy terms) some 10 percent below the
bumper crop of 2009. Consequently imports of wheat and rice
for 2010/11 marketing year (July/June) are expected to decline.
However, in spite of favourable harvests, cereal imports during
2009/10 were over 2.5 million tonnes, possibly for stock building
purposes.

Wheat prices have risen in recent months after

having declined from June 2008
Prices of wheat and wheat flour that had steadily declined for
two consecutive years increased in most urban markets in July
and August, The average price of wheat in August at
AFN 15.2/kg was 9 percent above its July level. Prices of wheat
flour in most border city markets has shown larger increases in
response to the recent crisis due to flooding in neighbouring
Pakistan, At the current levels, wheat prices are still below the
levels of August 2009 and 2008 but an average 7 percent higher
than in the pre-crisis period of January-October 2007.

Pockets of food insecurity remain despite

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On the whole, following two successive bumper wheat harvests,
large carry-over stocks, reduced wheat imports requirements in
2010/11 (July/June) and satisfactory export availabilities in
Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the national wheat supply situation in
Afghanistan is expected to remain satisfactory in marketing year
2010/11 (July/June). However, given the continuing low
purchasing power due to long standing conflicts, erosion of
incomes and assets, pockets of food insecurity exist in the
country.

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