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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Exercise:

If you are having issues completing this exercise, please watch all of the DCF exercises from this current section of

As always, please send me questions if you have any. Thanks

Step 1 (Optional):
Read the Valuation Guidelines/Best Practices list below for help in understanding how to value a company. If yo

Step 2:
There are several orange shaded boxes (or grey on some computers) on the next tab called DCF. Please come u
For example, underneath this orange box is the answer to a pretend question. Please remove this orange box to
Tip: Remove the box by pressing the SHIFT button while clicking on the box.
Then please take your finger off the SHIFT button and hit delete.

Step 3:
Before / during or after you answer the questions, please play around with the model on the 5 tabs as all 5 are

Step 4:
Please watch the next lecture for a comprehensive review of the answers and a reinforcement of how Discount

Please note: We will cover more valuation methodologies in future sections in this course.
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remove this orange box to see the answer.

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Here is the answer!

ncial statements / valuation and ask me as many questions as you want.

st
st Practices:
Practices:
Discounted Cash Flow Price Target Model
$ Values are in $'000s

Green = from other tabs

Step 1: Get FCF from Cash Flow Statement Tab.

2016E
Free Cash Flow (FCF): $438

Step 2: Calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (whic

Weighted Average Cost o


=
* Cost of Equity x % of the C
+
** Cost of Debt x % of the
=
14.3%
+
0.0573%
=
14.31%

Step 2.1: Calculate Cost of Equity.


Step 2.1: Calculate Cost of Equity.
Cost of Equity:
=
Risk Free Rate
+
Beta * (Stock Market Return
=
2.5%
+
2 * (8.5% - 2.5%)
=
14.5%

Step 2.2: Calculate Cost of Debt.

Cost of Debt:
=
Cost of Debt * (1-0.33)
=
5% * (1-0.33)
=
3.4%

Step 3: Calculate Net Present Value.

NPV =
Step 4: Calculate Terminal Value.

Long Term Growth =


Terminal Value =
TV Discounted =

Step 5: Calculate Target Firm Value.

Target Equity Value =


Less Debt =
Target Value =
Shares =
Target per share

Extra Step: Sensitivity Analysis Value.

1%
Growt

2%
h

3%
2017E 2018E 2019E
$645 $1,466 $2,548

Capital (which is the discount rate we will use to discount our FCFs).

erage Cost of Capital:

y x % of the Capital Structure that is Equity (Market Cap)

x % of the Capital Structure that is Debt

Assume Market Cap today $ 10,000


Assume Stock Price today $ 8.58
* Equity is about 98% of the capital structure
** Debt is about 2% of the capital structure (only $1
Market Return - Risk Free Rate)

Assume Beta= 2
Assume Risk Free Rate = 2.5%
Assume Stock Market Return = 8.5%

(1-0.33) Assume Debt Cost= 5%

$6,029
3%
$37,197
$24,240

$30,269
$10
$30,259
1,165
$25.97
W
A
C
C

8.3% 11.3% 14.3%


$41 $28 $20
$47 $30 $22
$55 $33 $23

Green = Bullish Orange = Base Case


2020E
$4,084

unt our FCFs).

et Cap)

tal structure
al structure (only $10)
Assume Long Term Growth = 3%
C
C

17.3% 20.3%
$16 $13
$17 $13
$18 $14

ge = Base Case Red = Bearish Case


h Case
Revenue Breakdown (feeds into the Income Statement on the next tab)

Blue = hard coded (not calculated)


1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A
Sector Breakdown of Revenue

Total Revenue 4.5 7.0 21.5 32.0


YOY change
QOQ change 55.6% 207.1% 48.8%

REVENUE LINE ITEM #1 OF 2 4.0 6.0 20.0 30.0


YOY change
QOQ change 50.0% 233.3% 50.0%
% of total 88.9% 85.7% 93.0% 93.8%

REVENUE LINE ITEM #2 OF 2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0


YOY change
QOQ change 100.0% 50.0% 33.3%
% of total 11.1% 14.3% 7.0% 6.3%
2011 1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A

$ 65 9.8 15.2 47.0 70.0 $ 142 $ 20 $ 32


117.8% 117.1% 118.6% 118.8% 118.5% 108.5% 108.0%
-69.4% 55.1% 209.2% 48.9% -70.8% 54.8%

$ 60 8.8 13.2 44.0 66.0 $ 132 18.5 27.7


120.0% 120.0% 120.0% 120.0% 120.0% 110.0% 110.0%
-70.7% 50.0% 233.3% 50.0% -72.0% 50.0%
92.3% 89.8% 86.8% 93.6% 94.3% 93.0% 90.5% 87.7%

$ 5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 $ 10 2.0 3.9


100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 95.0% 95.0%
-50.0% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3% -51.3% 100.0%
7.7% 10.2% 13.2% 6.4% 5.7% 7.0% 9.5% 12.3%
3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A 2014

$ 98 $ 146 $ 297 $ 41 $ 63 $ 196 $ 292 $ 591


109.0% 109.1% 108.9% 99.0% 98.8% 99.4% 99.5% 99.3%
210.7% 49.0% -72.2% 54.6% 211.7% 49.1%

92.4 138.6 $ 277 $ 37 $ 55 184.8 $ 277 $ 554


110.0% 110.0% 110.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
233.3% 50.0% -73.3% 50.0% 233.3% 50.0%
94.0% 94.7% 93.4% 90.9% 88.2% 94.3% 94.9% 93.7%

5.9 7.8 $ 20 3.7 7.4 11.1 14.8 $ 37


95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0%
50.0% 33.3% -52.5% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3%
6.0% 5.3% 6.6% 9.1% 11.8% 5.7% 5.1% 6.3%
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)

1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E

$ 77 $ 119 $ 372 $ 554 $ 1,122 138.7 214.3 669.0


89.5% 89.4% 89.7% 89.7% 89.7% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
-73.6% 54.4% 212.2% 49.1% -75.0% 54.4% 212.2%

$ 70 $ 105 351.1 $ 527 $ 1,053 126.4 189.6 632.0


90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
-74.7% 50.0% 233.3% 50.0% -76.0% 50.0% 233.3%
91.1% 88.5% 94.5% 95.1% 93.9% 91.1% 88.5% 94.5%

6.9 13.7 20.6 27.4 $ 69 12.3 24.7 37.0


85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
-53.8% 100.0% 50.0% 33.3% -55.0% 100.0% 50.0%
8.9% 11.5% 5.5% 4.9% 6.1% 8.9% 11.5% 5.5%
4Q16E 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e

997.4 2,019.4 3,439.2 5,524.3 8,341.5 11,799.2


80.0% 80.0% 70.3% 60.6% 51.0% 41.5%
49.1%

948.0 1,896.0 3,223.3 5,157.3 7,735.9 10,830.2


80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0%
50.0%
95.1% 93.9% 93.7% 93.4% 92.7% 91.8%

49.4 123.4 215.9 367.0 605.6 969.0


80.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0%
33.3%
4.9% 6.1% 6.3% 6.6% 7.3% 8.2%
Income Statement (Revenue from Previous Tab)
$ Values are in $'000s
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
Green = from previous tab: "Revenue (More Detail)"

1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A

Revenue 4.5 7.0 21.5 32.0


YOY change
QOQ change 55.6% 207.1% 48.8%

COGS 1.4 2.1 6.5 9.6


% of sales 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Gross profit 3.2 4.9 15.1 22.4
Gross margin 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%

Sales and marketing 0.8 1.2 3.7 5.4


% of sales 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Product development 0.7 1.1 3.4 5.1
% of sales 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
General and administrative 0.7 1.1 3.2 4.8
% of sales 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Depreciation 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6
% of sales 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Total expenses 3.7 5.8 17.8 26.6


% of sales 83.0% 83.0% 83.0% 83.0%
Yoy Change
Income (loss) from operations 0.8 1.2 3.7 5.4
% of sales 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
EBITDA 1.0 1.5 4.7 7.0
% of sales 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Other income (expense), net 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
% of sales 22.2% 14.3% 4.7% 3.1%
GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes 1.8 2.2 4.7 6.4
% of sales 39.2% 31.3% 21.7% 20.1%
GAAP Provision (benefit) for income taxes 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.9
Tax rate 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

GAAP Net income (loss) $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 3.3 $ 4.5


% of sales 27.5% 21.9% 15.2% 14.1%
GAAP EPS* $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.00
YOY change
GAAP Shares 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
* We will add Non-GAAP EPS in the valuation section.
2011 1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A

65.0 9.8 15.2 47.0 70.0 142.0 20.4 31.6


117.8% 117.1% 118.6% 118.8% 118.5% 108.5% 108.0%
-69.4% 55.1% 209.2% 48.9% -70.8% 54.8%

19.5 2.7 4.3 13.2 19.6 39.8 5.3 8.2


30.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 26.0% 26.0%
45.5 7.1 10.9 33.8 50.4 102.2 15.1 23.4
70.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 72.0% 74.0% 74.0%

11.1 1.6 2.4 7.5 11.2 22.7 3.1 4.7


17.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0%
10.4 1.5 2.3 7.1 10.5 21.3 2.9 4.4
16.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0%
9.8 1.4 2.1 6.6 9.8 19.9 2.7 4.1
15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0%
3.3 0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 7.1 1.0 1.6
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

54.0 7.6 11.9 36.7 54.6 110.8 14.9 23.1


83.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 73.0% 73.0%

11.1 2.2 3.3 10.3 15.4 31.2 5.5 8.5


17.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 27.0% 27.0%
14.3 2.6 4.1 12.7 18.9 38.3 6.5 10.1
22.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 32.0% 32.0%
4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0
6.2% 10.2% 6.6% 2.1% 1.4% 2.8% 4.9% 3.2%
15.1 3.2 4.3 11.3 16.4 35.2 6.5 9.5
23.2% 32.2% 28.6% 24.1% 23.4% 24.8% 31.9% 30.2%
4.5 0.9 1.3 3.4 4.9 10.6 2.0 2.9
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

$ 10.5 $ 2.2 $ 3.0 $ 7.9 $ 11.5 $ 24.7 $ 4.6 $ 6.7


16.2% 22.5% 20.0% 16.9% 16.4% 17.4% 22.3% 21.1%
$ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 0.00 $ 0.01
78.8% 98.4% 143.6% 154.7% 134.2% 106.5% 119.6%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A 4Q14A 2014

98.3 146.4 296.7 40.7 62.9 195.9 292.0 591.5


109.0% 109.1% 108.9% 99.0% 98.8% 99.4% 99.5% 99.3%
210.7% 49.0% -72.2% 54.6% 211.7% 49.1%

25.5 38.1 77.1 9.8 15.1 47.0 70.1 141.9


26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
72.7 108.3 219.6 30.9 47.8 148.9 221.9 449.5
74.0% 74.0% 74.0% 76.0% 76.0% 76.0% 76.0% 76.0%

14.7 22.0 44.5 5.7 8.8 27.4 40.9 82.8


15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
13.8 20.5 41.5 5.3 8.2 25.5 38.0 76.9
14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%
12.8 19.0 38.6 4.9 7.5 23.5 35.0 71.0
13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
4.9 7.3 14.8 2.0 3.1 9.8 14.6 29.6
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

71.7 106.9 216.6 27.7 42.7 133.2 198.6 402.2


73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0% 68.0%

26.5 39.5 80.1 13.0 20.1 62.7 93.4 189.3


27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
31.4 46.8 94.9 15.0 23.3 72.5 108.0 218.8
32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0%
1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0
1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
27.5 40.5 84.1 14.0 21.1 63.7 94.4 193.3
28.0% 27.7% 28.3% 34.5% 33.6% 32.5% 32.3% 32.7%
8.3 12.2 25.2 4.2 6.3 19.1 28.3 58.0
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

$ 19.3 $ 28.4 $ 58.9 $ 9.8 $ 14.8 $ 44.6 $ 66.1 $ 135.3


19.6% 19.4% 19.8% 24.1% 23.5% 22.8% 22.6% 22.9%
$ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ 0.05 $ 0.01 $ 0.01 $ 0.04 $ 0.06 $ 0.12
142.7% 147.1% 138.7% 115.0% 121.4% 131.4% 133.0% 129.8%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E

77.1 119.0 371.7 554.1 1,121.9 138.7 214.3 669.0


89.5% 89.4% 89.7% 89.7% 89.7% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
-73.6% 54.4% 212.2% 49.1% -75.0% 54.4% 212.2%

17.0 26.2 81.8 121.9 246.8 27.7 42.9 133.8


22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
60.1 92.9 289.9 432.2 875.1 111.0 171.4 535.2
78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

10.0 15.5 48.3 72.0 145.8 16.6 25.7 80.3


13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
9.2 14.3 44.6 66.5 134.6 15.3 23.6 73.6
12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
8.5 13.1 40.9 61.0 123.4 13.9 21.4 66.9
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
3.9 6.0 18.6 27.7 56.1 6.9 10.7 33.5
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

48.6 75.0 234.2 349.1 706.8 80.5 124.3 388.0


63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 63.0% 58.0% 58.0% 58.0%
65.7% 65.7% 65.7%
28.5 44.0 137.5 205.0 415.1 58.3 90.0 281.0
37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0%
32.4 50.0 156.1 232.7 471.2 65.2 100.7 314.4
42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0%
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1%
29.5 45.0 138.5 206.0 419.1 59.3 91.0 282.0
38.3% 37.8% 37.3% 37.2% 37.4% 42.7% 42.5% 42.1%
8.4 12.8 39.3 58.5 119.0 17.8 27.3 84.6
28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

$ 21.1 $ 32.2 $ 99.2 $ 147.5 $ 300.1 $ 41.5 $ 63.7 $ 197.4


27.4% 27.1% 26.7% 26.6% 26.7% 29.9% 29.7% 29.5%
$ 0.02 $ 0.03 $ 0.09 $ 0.13 $ 0.26 $ 0.04 $ 0.05 $ 0.17
115.4% 118.2% 122.5% 123.2% 121.8% 96.4% 97.5% 99.0%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
4Q16E 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e

997.4 2,019.4 3,439.2 5,524.3 8,341.5 11,799.2


80.0% 80.0% 70.3% 60.6% 51.0% 41.5%
49.1%

199.5 403.9 619.1 883.9 1,167.8 1,415.9


20.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0%
797.9 1,615.5 2,820.1 4,640.4 7,173.7 10,383.3
80.0% 80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0%

119.7 242.3 378.3 552.4 750.7 943.9


12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0%
109.7 222.1 343.9 497.2 667.3 825.9
11.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0%
99.7 201.9 309.5 441.9 583.9 708.0
10.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0%
49.9 101.0 172.0 276.2 417.1 590.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

578.5 1,171.3 1,822.8 2,651.7 3,586.8 4,483.7


58.0% 58.0% 53.0% 48.0% 43.0% 38.0%
65.7% 65.7% 55.6% 45.5% 35.3% 25.0%
418.9 848.2 1,616.4 2,872.6 4,754.7 7,315.5
42.0% 42.0% 47.0% 52.0% 57.0% 62.0%
468.8 949.1 1,788.4 3,148.8 5,171.7 7,905.5
47.0% 47.0% 52.0% 57.0% 62.0% 67.0%
1.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
419.9 852.2 1,620.4 2,876.6 4,758.7 7,319.5
42.1% 42.2% 47.1% 52.1% 57.0% 62.0%
126.0 255.6 486.1 863.0 1,427.6 2,195.9
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

$ 293.9 $ 596.5 $ 1,134.3 $ 2,013.6 $ 3,331.1 $ 5,123.7


29.5% 29.5% 33.0% 36.5% 39.9% 43.4%
$ 0.25 $ 0.51 $ 0.97 $ 1.73 $ 2.86 $ 4.40
99.2% 98.8% 90.2% 77.5% 65.4% 53.8%
1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165
Balance Sheet
$ Values are in $'000s

Blue = hard coded (not calculated)


Green = from other tabs
2011
Balance Sheet (in '000s).
1Q11A 2Q11A

Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 13.2 11.6
Short-term investments 7.0 7.0
Accounts receivable 2.0 2.0
Accounts Receivable as a % of revenue 44.4% 28.6%
Inventory 2.00 2.00
Inventory as a % of revenue 44.4% 28.6%
Total Current Assets 24.2 22.6
Long Term Assets
**Equipment we own, net of accumulated depreciation and inclusive of capex. 0.2 0.6
Here is How We Calculate Capex (same as Purchase of Equipment)
Depreciation (linked to the Income Statement) 0.2 0.4
Capex (we need to calculate this here as it feeds into the C.F. Statement) 0.5 0.7
Capex as a % of revenue 10.0% 10.0%
Machine
Total Long Term Assets 0.2 0.6
TOTAL ASSETS 24.433 23.129

Current liabilities
Accounts payable 1.0 1.0
Accounts Payable as a % of revenue 22.2% 14.3%
Short-term debt 13.2 10.4
Total Current Liabilities 14.2 11.4
Long Term Liabilities
Long-term debt 5.0 5.0
Total Long Term Liabilities 5.0 5.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES 19.2 16.4

Retained Earnings 1.2 2.8


Common Shares 4.0 4.0
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER'S EQUITY 5.2 6.8

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY 24.4 23.1


Do Assets = Liabilities + Equity? YES YES
- -
** The equipment that we own is equal to the amount of equipment we owned in
the previous quarter minus the amount tthat he equipment has depreciated since
the previous quarter PLUS the capex we spent to buy more equipment. Please see
the math/logic in the cells in the Equipment section above under Long Term Assets.
Thanks
2011 FY 2012 FY
3Q11A 4Q11A 2011 1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012

13.7 19.9 19.9 14.7 16.3 17.8 22.8 22.8


7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
2.0 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 3.5
9.3% 6.3% 6.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
2.00 2.00 2.00 1.08 1.67 5.17 7.70 7.70
9.3% 6.3% 6.3% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
24.7 30.9 30.9 23.3 25.7 32.3 41.0 41.0

1.7 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.5 6.9 10.4 10.4

1.1 1.6 3.3 0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 7.1


2.2 3.2 6.5 1.0 1.5 4.7 7.0 14.2
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

1.7 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.5 6.9 10.4 10.4


26.387 34.119 34.119 27.038 30.241 39.133 51.303 51.303

1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.1


4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
10.4 13.6 13.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
11.4 14.6 14.6 5.3 5.5 6.4 7.1 7.1

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0


5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
16.4 19.6 19.6 10.3 10.5 11.4 12.1 12.1

6.0 10.5 10.5 12.7 15.8 23.7 35.2 35.2


4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
10.0 14.5 14.5 16.7 19.8 27.7 39.2 39.2

26.4 34.1 34.1 27.0 30.2 39.1 51.3 51.3


YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - -
2013 FY 2014
1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A

32.7 36.4 42.1 56.9 56.9 78.4 87.1 104.6


7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
1.0 1.6 4.9 7.3 7.3 2.0 3.1 9.8
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
2.25 3.48 10.81 16.10 16.10 4.47 6.91 21.55
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
43.0 48.4 64.8 87.3 87.3 91.9 104.2 143.0

11.4 13.0 17.9 25.2 25.2 27.2 30.4 40.2

1.0 1.6 4.9 7.3 14.8 2.0 3.1 9.8


2.0 3.2 9.8 14.6 29.7 4.1 6.3 19.6
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

11.4 13.0 17.9 25.2 25.2 27.2 30.4 40.2


54.377 61.389 82.657 112.471 112.471 119.108 134.552 183.129

0.6 0.9 2.9 4.4 4.4 1.2 1.9 5.9


3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
5.6 5.9 7.9 9.4 9.4 6.2 6.9 10.9

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0


5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
10.6 10.9 12.9 14.4 14.4 11.2 11.9 15.9

39.8 46.4 65.7 94.1 94.1 103.9 118.7 163.3


4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
43.8 50.4 69.7 98.1 98.1 107.9 122.7 167.3

54.4 61.4 82.7 112.5 112.5 119.1 134.6 183.1


YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - -
4 FY 2015 FY 2016
4Q14A 2014 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E

143.6 143.6 188.9 209.7 257.5 353.6 353.6 442.1


7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
14.6 14.6 3.9 6.0 18.6 27.7 27.7 6.9
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
32.12 32.12 8.48 13.09 40.89 60.95 60.95 15.26
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
197.4 197.4 208.2 235.7 323.9 449.2 449.2 471.3

54.8 54.8 58.6 64.6 83.1 110.9 110.9 117.8

14.6 29.6 3.9 6.0 18.6 27.7 56.1 6.9


29.2 59.1 7.7 11.9 37.2 55.4 112.2 13.9
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

54.8 54.8 58.6 64.6 83.1 110.9 110.9 117.8


252.125 252.125 266.802 300.308 407.083 560.091 560.091 589.120

8.8 8.8 2.3 3.6 11.2 16.6 16.6 4.2


3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
13.8 13.8 7.3 8.6 16.2 21.6 21.6 9.2

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0


5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
18.8 18.8 12.3 13.6 21.2 26.6 26.6 14.2

229.4 229.4 250.5 282.7 381.9 529.5 529.5 571.0


4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
233.4 233.4 254.5 286.7 385.9 533.5 533.5 575.0

252.1 252.1 266.8 300.3 407.1 560.1 560.1 589.1


YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - -
2016 FYE FYE FYE FYE FYE
2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e

485.3 590.1 791.5 791.5 1,436.4 2,902.8 5,450.5 9,534.7


7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
10.7 33.5 49.9 49.9 172.0 276.2 417.1 590.0
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
23.57 73.59 109.71 109.71 378.3 607.7 917.6 1,297.9
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
526.6 704.2 958.1 958.1 1,993.7 3,793.6 6,792.1 11,429.6

128.5 162.0 211.8 211.8 383.8 660.0 1,077.1 1,667.0

10.7 33.5 49.9 101.0 172.0 276.2 417.1 590.0


21.4 66.9 99.7 201.9 343.9 552.4 834.2 1,179.9
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

128.5 162.0 211.8 211.8 383.8 660.0 1,077.1 1,667.0


655.085 866.122 1169.900 1169.900 2377.448 4453.645 7869.220 13096.615

6.4 20.1 29.9 29.9 103.2 165.7 250.2 354.0


3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
11.4 25.1 34.9 34.9 108.2 170.7 255.2 359.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0


5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
16.4 30.1 39.9 39.9 113.2 175.7 260.2 364.0

634.7 832.1 1,126.0 1,126.0 2,260.3 4,273.9 7,605.0 12,728.6


4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
638.7 836.1 1,130.0 1,130.0 2,264.3 4,277.9 7,609.0 12,732.6

655.1 866.1 1,169.9 1,169.9 2,377.4 4,453.6 7,869.2 13,096.6


YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
- - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Statement
$ Values are in $'000s
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
Green = from other tabs
2011 FY
Cash Flow Statement: $ Values are in $'000s
1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A 2011
Operating Activities
Net Income 1.2 1.5 3.3 4.5 10.5
Increase in depreciation (+) 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 3.3
Increase in Accounts Receivable (-) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Inventory (-) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Accounts Payable (+) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash From Operating Activities 1.5 1.9 4.3 6.1 13.8

Investing Activities
Purchases of equipment (same here as 'Capex') (0.5) (0.7) (2.2) (3.2) (6.5)
Net Cash From Investing Activities (0.5) (0.7) (2.2) (3.2) (6.5)

Financing Activities
Increase in Short Term Debt (+) N/A (2.8) 0.0 3.2 0.4
Increase in Long Term Debt (+) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Common Shares (+) N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash From Financing Activities 0.0 (2.8) 0.0 3.2 0.4

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash 1.0 (1.7) 2.2 6.1 7.7

Cash at beginning of period N/A 13.2 11.6 13.7 19.9


Cash at ending of period 11.6 13.7 19.9 19.9
Does $ from Our Balance Sheet reflected in our $ here? Yes Yes Yes Yes

1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11A 4Q11A 2011


Free Cash Flow (this is Net Cash from Operating Activities - Capex)
1.0 1.2 2.2 2.9 7.3
The Cash Flow Statement Forecasts are mainly from the Balance Sheet (i.e., 'working capital'*, capex, debt an
and the Income Statement (net income and depreciation). *'working capital' is current assets and current liab
The Cash Flow Statement is easy to forecast as it is linked to the Income Statement and Balance Sheet!

2012 FY 2013 FY 2014


1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A

2.2 3.0 7.9 11.5 24.7 4.6 6.7 19.3 28.4 58.9 9.8 14.8 44.6
0.5 0.8 2.4 3.5 7.1 1.0 1.6 4.9 7.3 14.8 2.0 3.1 9.8
1.5 (0.3) (1.6) (1.2) 0.0 2.5 (0.6) (3.3) (2.4) 0.0 5.3 (1.1) (6.7)
0.9 (0.6) (3.5) (2.5) 0.0 5.5 (1.2) (7.3) (5.3) 0.0 11.6 (2.4) (14.6)
(0.7) 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 (1.5) 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.0 (3.2) 0.7 4.0
4.4 3.1 6.2 12.0 25.7 12.0 6.8 15.5 29.4 63.8 25.6 15.0 37.1

(1.0) (1.5) (4.7) (7.0) (14.2) (2.0) (3.2) (9.8) (14.6) (29.7) (4.1) (6.3) (19.6)
(1.0) (1.5) (4.7) (7.0) (14.2) (2.0) (3.2) (9.8) (14.6) (29.7) (4.1) (6.3) (19.6)

(8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (8.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(5.1) 1.6 1.5 5.0 2.9 10.0 3.6 5.7 14.8 34.1 21.5 8.8 17.5

19.9 14.7 16.3 17.8 22.8 22.8 32.7 36.4 42.1 56.9 56.9 78.4 87.1
14.7 16.3 17.8 22.8 22.8 32.7 36.4 42.1 56.9 56.9 78.4 87.1 104.6
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

1Q12A 2Q12A 3Q12A 4Q12A 2012 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13A 2013 1Q14A 2Q14A 3Q14A
3.4 1.6 1.5 5.0 11.5 10.0 3.6 5.7 14.8 34.1 21.5 8.8 17.5
working capital'*, capex, debt and equity)
is current assets and current liabilities).
ement and Balance Sheet!

2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FYE FYE


4Q14A 2014 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e

66.1 135.3 21.1 32.2 99.2 147.5 300.1 41.5 63.7 197.4 293.9 596.5 1,134.3
14.6 29.6 3.9 6.0 18.6 27.7 56.1 6.9 10.7 33.5 49.9 101.0 172.0
(4.8) 0.0 10.7 (2.1) (12.6) (9.1) 0.0 20.8 (3.8) (22.7) (16.4) 0.0 (122.1)
(10.6) 0.0 23.6 (4.6) (27.8) (20.1) 0.0 45.7 (8.3) (50.0) (36.1) 0.0 (268.6)
2.9 0.0 (6.4) 1.3 7.6 5.5 0.0 (12.5) 2.3 13.6 9.9 0.0 73.3
68.2 145.9 52.9 32.7 84.9 151.5 322.1 102.4 64.6 171.7 301.1 697.5 988.8

(29.2) (59.1) (7.7) (11.9) (37.2) (55.4) (112.2) (13.9) (21.4) (66.9) (99.7) (201.9) (343.9)
(29.2) (59.1) (7.7) (11.9) (37.2) (55.4) (112.2) (13.9) (21.4) (66.9) (99.7) (201.9) (343.9)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

39.0 86.8 45.2 20.8 47.8 96.1 209.9 88.5 43.2 104.8 201.4 437.9 644.9

104.6 143.6 143.6 188.9 209.7 257.5 353.6 353.6 442.1 485.3 590.1 791.5 791.5
143.6 143.6 188.9 209.7 257.5 353.6 353.6 442.1 485.3 590.1 791.5 791.5 1,436.4
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

4Q14A 2014 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 2015 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016e 2017e
39.0 86.8 45.2 20.8 47.8 96.1 209.9 88.5 43.2 104.8 201.4 437.9 644.9
FYE FYE FYE
2018e 2019e 2020e

2,013.6 3,331.1 5,123.7


276.2 417.1 590.0
(104.3) (140.9) (172.9)
(229.4) (309.9) (380.3)
62.6 84.5 103.7
2,018.8 3,381.9 5,264.1

(552.4) (834.2) (1,179.9)


(552.4) (834.2) (1,179.9)

0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0

1,466.4 2,547.7 4,084.2

1,436.4 2,902.8 5,450.5


2,902.8 5,450.5 9,534.7
Yes Yes Yes

2018e 2019e 2020e


1,466.4 2,547.7 4,084.2