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CONSTRUCTION

ESTIMATING
MODULE 6

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RISK ANALYSIS & VARIABLES
Content
• An estimate is not a number
• Definition of risk
• Definition of risk analysis
• Risk categories
• Questions when analyzing a risk
• Risk matrix
• When to respond to risk
• Ways to respond to risk
• Contingency and risk
• Specific mitigation methods / approaches
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An estimate is not a number
• Projects are subject to many variables that cannot all be known
beforehand
• Estimates represent just one of many possible outcomes of multiple
variables
• These variables are not all directly controllable or absolutely quantifiable
• Therefore cost estimating and the validation process must consider
probabilities in assessing estimates (risk analysis)

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Definitions
• Definition of risk:
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, will have a
positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives
– A positive consequence presents an opportunity
– A negative consequence presents a threat

• Definition of risk analysis:


Risk Analysis – The use of available information to determine
how often events may occur and the magnitude of their
consequences

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Risk categories

• Technical risks
• External risks
• Environmental risks
• Organisational risks
• Project management risks
• Geographic risks
• Resource risks
• Pricing risks

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Questions when analysing risks

• Is the item a risk?


• Does the risk pose a threat to the project?
• Are there possible opportunities in the risk?
• What is the financial impact of the risk?
• What is the impact of the risk on the programme?
• Is it worth investigating / mitigating the risk based on the
analysis?
• Is it still viable to continue with the estimate / project based
on the risk analysis?

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Risk matrix

P
R
O
High
You do not B
want to be A
B
in the red I
quadrant Low
L
I
T
Y Low High

IMPACT

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When to respond to risk

The cost to fix an issue exponentially increases the later in


the project lifecycle that it is identified and resolved

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Avoidance as risk response
• Avoidance actions include: change project management plan to eliminate a
threat, to isolate project objectives from the risk’s impact, or to relax the
project objective that is in jeopardy, such as extending schedule or reducing
scope. Some risks that arise early in the project can be avoided by clarifying
requirements, obtaining information, improving communication, or
acquiring expertise.

• This response addresses probability. Two types of actions can be taken


o Remove the cause of the risk (risk trigger); (Extended completion date)
o Execute project in different way while still aiming to achieve project
objectives. Not all risks can be avoided or eliminated, and for others this
approach may be too expensive or time-consuming, but this should be
the first strategy considered for each risk. (Acceleration)
Effective Opportunity Management for Projects by David Hillson

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Unauthorised reproduction will be actionable under South African law. 9
Mitigation as risk response

• Risk mitigation implies a reduction in the probability and/or impact of an adverse


risk event to an acceptable threshold. Taking early action is often more effective to
repair than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred. Examples of
mitigation strategies include: adopting less complex processes, conducting more
investigations, developing a prototype , etc

• This response addresses the probability and impact of adverse risks.

• Mitigation or acceptance or the strategies most often used since the number of
threats that can be addressed by avoidance or transfer are usually limited.
Preventative responses are better than curative responses because they are more
pro-active and if successful can lead to risk avoidance. Preventative responses
tackle the causes of the risk; where it is not possible to reduce probability a
mitigation response should address the adverse impact, targeting the drivers that
determine the extent of the severity.
Effective Opportunity Management for Projects by David Hillson
©2018 Copyright Alusani Skills & Training Network®. All Rights Reserved.
The format, design, content and arrangement of this document constitute a trademark of Alusani Skills & Training Network®.
Unauthorised reproduction will be actionable under South African law. 10
Transference as risk response

• Transferring a threat does not eliminate it; the threat still exists however it is owned
and managed by another party. Transferring risk can be an effective way to deal
with financial risk exposure. Transferring project risk almost always involves
payment of a risk premium to the party taking the risk, examples include: insurance,
performance bonds, warranties, etc.

• Transferring risk involves finding another party who is willing to take responsibility
for its management, and who will bear the liability of the risk should it occur. The
aim is to ensure that the risk is owned and managed by the party best able to deal
with it effectively. Risk transfer usually involves payment of a premium, and the
cost-effectiveness of this must be considered when deciding whether to adopt a
transfer strategy.

Effective Opportunity Management for Projects by David Hillson

©2018 Copyright Alusani Skills & Training Network®. All Rights Reserved.
The format, design, content and arrangement of this document constitute a trademark of Alusani Skills & Training Network®.
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Acceptance as risk response

• The term “accept” refers to risks that remain after response actions and/or for
which response is not cost effective are accepted; risks that are uncontrollable (no
response actions are practical) are also accepted

• Ultimately it is not possible to eliminate all threats. We can document them and at
least provide awareness that these exist and have been identified (passive
acceptance). In most cases a contingency reserve is established to deal with the
aggregate residual risk that has been accepted (active acceptance).

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Contingency and risk
Contract requirements
35%
Incomplete design
25%
25%
Base 15%
Estimate Unknowns
Site conditions
Base
Estimate

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Contingency and risk

Not familiar with contract – R700,000

Shopfronts / Curtain walls – R500,000 Contract requirements

No Geo tech report – R300,000 35%

General unknowns – R500,000 Unknowns Site conditions

25% 15% 25%

Incomplete design

Base
Estimate
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Mitigation methods

• Site inspections as method

• Specific methods for commercial risks

• Mitigating risks related to specifications

• Mitigating pricing risks

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THANK YOU
©2017 Copyright Alusani Skills & Training Network®. All Rights Reserved.

Len Holder
Tel: 011 447 7470
Web: www.alusani.co.za

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