APES 2017/2018

Analyzing Greenhouse Gases Over Time

Objectives
 To organize raw data by using charts and graphs
 To analyze the charts and graphs to see trends in the data, and extend the trends into the future
 To draw valid conclusions based on authentic research data.

Engage
You have been assigned a position in a research institution dealing with global issues. A research
scientist has just published "raw data." Within a week, a major international conference on this
material will be held and you need to analyze the data. The data need to be presented and organized in
a meaningful, scientific and useful way, avoiding hysteria.

Explore/Explain
Materials: (for each team of students)
 raw data sheets (M. Meinshausen et al.: Historical GHG concentrations for climate modelling)
 pencil
 graph paper
 ruler

Procedure:
1. Discuss where data come from, types of graphs available, what a trend is, and how to project a
trend. (Class discussion)
2. Work in teams of 4 to analyse the different data sets. Although each team member will be
responsible for plotting just one of the graphs, the whole activity is a collaborative, group
activity. The analysis and conclusions are collaboratively done.
3. Simulate the role of a research scientist - an 'expert'.
4. Using accompanying data, plot the values and make the curve for each of the graphs. Leave
space on the graph axes for plotting a future trend.
5. Upon completion of the graph(s), continue the trend of the curve for another 50 years.
6. Analyse and develop a conclusion for each graph. Write this on a separate piece of paper which
can be attached under the graph. Research on the internet to add explanatory or supporting
information.
7. Elect a spokesperson to report the interpretation of the graphs, including:
a) consensus view
b) a minority view
c) explanations for conclusions
8. Discuss the role of data analysis in scientific research. How do choices in displaying data affect
communication? (Class discussion)

Expand
1. Make a display of the various graphs and conclusions.
2. Explore the Internet for raw data currently being reported by scientists working in Antarctica or
in Greenland. Follow the analytic procedures and report findings to the class.
3. The graphs will indicate a rising trend in several greenhouse gases. The debate about the
increase in greenhouse gases as a major factor in global warming continues. But it is important
to note the reduction in CFC levels which was the result of an international agreement to
decrease production. CFCs are not only a greenhouse gas, but also destroy the ozone layer
which protects us from the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation.