MBF3C Names: ____________________

Chapter 2: Probability Date: _______________

Culminating Activity
You may work with a partner. If you are working with a partner, submit one Activity with both
names on it.
Activity 2: Key Saves v2
The 1984-85 Edmonton Oilers have recently been recognized as the best NHL team of all time.
Wayne Gretzky scored 73 G and 135 A for 208 points, his 3rd of 4 seasons scoring over 200
points – the only player ever to do so. He was supported by future hall of famers Jari Kurri,
Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson, and Paul Coffey.
During the regular season Edmonton scored 401 goals in 80 games.
Their goaltenders average had a .887 Sv% for the season, led by future hall of famer Grant Fuhr.
The Edmonton Oilers faced the Philadelphia Flyers in the Stanley Cup final that year.
During the season Philadelphia averaged 33 shots on goal per game.
INVESTIGATE. Using Edmonton’s regular season game Sv% of 0.887, how many goals could
Philly have expected to score in a game?
1. Simulate the number of goals Philadelphia scores in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup.
Perform the rand command 33 times
GAME 1
on a graphing calculator to simulate 33
shots on goal. Record your results in Result Tally
the Tally Chart.
Save

Goal
2. What values will indicate that Fuhr
makes a save? What values indicate that Philly scores?

3. Using Edmonton’s goals scored in the regular season, how many goals per game can
Edmonton expect to score?
4. Make a prediction. Do you think that Edmonton or Philadelphia would win a 7 game
simulated series? Give at least one reason based on statistics.

5. Assume that Edmonton scores exactly __ goals in each game (use the result from Step #3
above). Complete more simulations until one team has won 4 games and is awarded the
Stanley Cup. Record the score of each game.
Game 1: EDM ___ at PHI ___ Game 2: EDM ___ at PHI ___
Game 3: PHI ___ at EDM ___ Game4: PHI ___ at EDM ___
Game 5: PHI ___ at EDM ___ Game 6: EDM ___ at PHI ___
Game 7: EDM ___ at PHI ___

GAME 2 GAME 3
Result Tally Result Tally

Save Save

Goal Goal
GAME 4 GAME 5, if necessary
Result Tally Result Tally

Save Save

Goal Goal
GAME 6, if necessary GAME 7, if necessary
Result Tally Result Tally

Save Save

Goal Goal
6. Reflect. How realistic is this simulation?

List some assumptions that you are making.

7. Reflect. Explain why this might not make an accurate prediction about the result of a playoff
series.

8. Explore. Look up the actual result of the 1984-85 Stanley Cup final. Who won? In how many
games?

What was Fuhr’s actual save percentage?

Explain why you think this result occurred.

What do you think was the secret to Edmonton’s success?