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Perspective George Sarraf

Dr. Walid Fayad


Tarek El Sayed
Simon-Pierre Monette

Unlocking the Potential


of District Cooling
The Need for GCC
Governments to
Take Action
Contact Information

Abu Dhabi
George Sarraf
Partner
+971-2-699-2400
george.sarraf@booz.com

Beirut
Tarek El Sayed
Principal
+961-1-985-655
tarek.elsayed@booz.com

Dubai
Simon-Pierre Monette
Senior Associate
+971-4-390-0260
simon-pierre.monette@booz.com

Riyadh
Dr. Walid Fayad
Partner
+966-1-249-7781
walid.fayad@booz.com

San Francisco
Christopher Dann
Partner
+1-415-421-1900
christopher.dann@booz.com

Stockholm
Niklas Eidmann
Principal
+46-8-506-190 00
niklas.eidmann@booz.com

Nadim Batri, Tim Gardner, Christopher Decker, and Marwan ElHachem also contributed to this Perspective.

Booz & Company


EXECUTIVE Under the right conditions, district cooling can offer numerous
advantages over conventional cooling in the Gulf Cooperation
SUMMARY
Council (GCC).1 The technology has inherent advantages for
areas of high cooling density—densely populated areas with a
heavy demand for air-conditioning. By pooling the demand for
cold air in dense urban areas, district cooling is more cost effi-
cient over the long term than conventional cooling options at
the individual building level. District cooling is also more reli-
able, more energy efficient, and has less negative environmental
impact than standard approaches to air-conditioning. With
the GCC countries likely to grow rapidly and urbanize further
in coming decades, district cooling could save these countries
from investing substantial sums on new power stations.

However, current market structures Governments can remove these


make it difficult to recognize and obstacles by treating district cooling
capitalize on those benefits. In many as a utility. They should designate
cases, power prices are overly low, appropriate zones of sufficient den-
making district systems appear viable sity for district cooling and include
only at very high levels of cooling the technology in urban planning.
density. Market distortions make Governments should also regulate
conventional air-cooling technologies tariffs to ensure fairness for cooling
appear more competitive. Property providers, property developers, and the
developers often fail to appreciate end-consumers. In addition, govern-
the advantages of combining their ments need to set service standards and
cooling demand and are wary of the define technical codes for the operation
technology because district cooling of district cooling. Governments can
requires significant initial investment. also get involved in providing district
The region’s district cooling sector cooling as they do with other utilities.
has also done itself no favors through With resolute government intervention,
its frequent poor planning of cooling district cooling can achieve its potential
loads and its inconsistent cost as a cost-effective and sustainable way
recovery models. to cope with the region’s hot climate.

Booz & Company 1


KEY HIGHLIGHTS
THE DISTRICT It accounts for 50 percent of annual
electricity consumption, a yearly fuel

• District cooling offers


COOLING opportunity cost of roughly $20 bil-

significant advantages in cost, CHALLENGE lion. Air-conditioning accounts for 70


percent of peak-period electricity con-
environmental protection,
sumption and is the chief determinant
comfort, and operational
of the region’s power requirements.
efficiency over other cooling
technologies when used in
Between now and 2030, cooling
sufficiently dense areas.
Commercial and residential well- demand in the GCC is expected to
• Properly employed, district being in the Gulf region depends nearly triple (see Exhibit 1). Meeting
cooling could provide around 30 on air-conditioning. Summer this demand will cost the GCC
percent of the GCC’s forecast temperatures in the GCC countries approximately $100 billion for new
cooling needs by 2030. This frequently exceed 45 degrees Celsius, cooling capacity and over $120 billion
would prevent the region from with high relative humidity. However, for new power capacity if it maintains
having to build 20 gigawatts governments have not regarded its existing pattern of technology
in new electricity-generating the provision of air-conditioning deployment. By 2030, air-conditioning
capacity, and save 200,000 as a matter requiring public policy will account for 60 percent of
barrels of oil equivalent per day and planning, as they have with additional power generation required
in fuel. other utilities such as power and in the region, and the fuel needed to
water. These countries have instead power air-conditioning will be the
• For district cooling to achieve its permitted an unregulated market to equivalent of 1.5 million barrels of oil
full potential, GCC governments determine when and where to use per day.
must employ utilities-style different cooling systems, and to
regulation to address structural decide how to pay for them. The case for district cooling
issues that bias the market District cooling makes economic
against district cooling. The time has come for GCC sense in areas of high cooling density.
governments to consider market At present, district cooling is one of
and governance reforms that can three main systems used for air-
lead to far more efficient technology conditioning in the region. The most
choices. This is because the market localized of them is conventional
has provided a suboptimal pattern window units or split systems. These
of solutions. In particular, district provide air-conditioning at the level
cooling—a network-based centralized of a single room, apartment unit, or
cooling system—has not been small building. Large buildings use
deployed efficiently. Under favorable another system, central air or water-
circumstances, district cooling cooled chillers. These tend to be
offers significant cost, comfort, and placed on a building’s roof or in the
operational efficiency gains when basement. The least localized system
compared to other technologies. is district cooling, in which a central
District cooling has not been used plant supplies chilled water through a
sufficiently where it is appropriate, network of pipes to multiple buildings
and it has been used where it is within a local area (see Exhibit 2).
inappropriate. As GCC countries
continue to grow economically, this District cooling features two
misuse of an important technology significant differences when compared
will prove costly. to more localized systems. First,
the network of pipes that circulate
The cost of cooling chilled water from the central
Air-conditioning in the GCC is an plant to buildings is an important
expensive necessity. The cooling additional cost. Second, district
capacity in the region today has cost cooling consumes water. The amount
approximately US$50 billion to install. of water consumed is relatively small

2 Booz & Company


Exhibit 1
Cooling Capacity Growth in the GCC May Triple by 2030

GCC PEAK COOLING DEMAND


(IN MILLIONS OF RT)
~3x

100
4
4
6

12

21

36 1
2 Bahrain
2 Oman
4
52
8 Qatar
Kuwait
19 UAE
Saudi Arabia

2010 2030

Note: RT = refrigeration tons.


Sources: MEED; GWI; national statistics; World Bank; Booz & Company analysis and forecast

Exhibit 2
How District Cooling Operates

DISTRICT COOLING SERVES MULTIPLE BUILDINGS IN A LOCAL AREA

Customer Buildings

District Cooling Plant

Heat Exchanger

Chilled Water Distribution Network

Note: Water is chilled in the district cooling plant and supplied to customer buildings through the network of pipes. The chilled water is fed into the building’s own cooling system
through the heat exchanger, and then fed back to the cooling plant in a closed loop where it is chilled again and redistributed.
Source: Adapted with kind permission from Euroheat & Power, ECOHEATCOOL Work package 5, Possibilities with more district cooling in Europe, Brussels, 2005-2006

Booz & Company 3


because of closed- loop operation. The difference is substantial. so the per user cost of the network
The possibility of using treated Aggregated peak loads can be up declines (see Exhibit 3). It is important
sewage effluents as water supply to 25 percent less than the sum of to recognize, therefore, that district
can limit having to draw on fresh or all individual peak loads. cooling is not a universal solution. It
desalinated water. is the right economic solution when it
District cooling is also flexible in serves a sufficiently dense area.
By offsetting network costs, district its capacity design and installation.
cooling offers three main benefits: The central cooling plant can Based on existing development plans
a low energy requirement, more increase its capacity incrementally and estimated density patterns,
efficient capacity use, and peak- to match growing loads. By district cooling could play an
period saving potential. contrast, the capacity of single- important role in GCC countries.
building cooling systems is rarely By 2030, we estimate that district
1. Low energy requirements. District adjusted once the building has cooling could optimally serve 30
cooling typically consumes 40 been constructed. Given this lack percent of the cooling requirements
to 50 percent less energy for of flexibility, property developers of the GCC (see Exhibit 4). The
every refrigeration ton hour are usually generous in determining consistent use of district cooling
than conventional in-building the capacity of in-building systems, in areas with appropriate levels of
technologies. This advantage allowing a broad margin of error. cooling density offers quantifiable
stems partly from the more As a result, it is common for advantages and qualitative benefits
efficient chiller technology used in single-building cooling systems to over current use patterns. In
district cooling. It is also comes have excess capacity of 30 to 50 quantifiable terms, district cooling
from district cooling plants’ percent. can lead to:
ability to maintain a steady level
of efficiency over time, because 3. Peak-period saving potential. • A regional reduction of 20
of their specialized operations District cooling offers a thermal gigawatts in new power capacity
and maintenance. By contrast, storage capability that can smooth requirements—the equivalent of 10
conventional cooling units tend out power requirements over the large power plants.
to undergo marked efficiency course of a day, thereby reducing
degradation. the strain on the power system • A reduction in the GCC’s power
at peak hours. District cooling plant fuel consumption of 200,000
2. More efficient capacity use. systems can store up to 30 percent barrels of oil equivalent per day by
District cooling typically needs of potential output by holding 2030.
around 15 percent less capacity chilled water in tanks. By contrast,
for the same cooling loads than in-building systems impose their • A region-wide decrease of 31
distributed cooling systems at the full load on power systems at million tons per year in CO2
unit level. Unlike conventional air- peak times. emissions—equal to one-third of
conditioning, district cooling has today’s emissions rate in the United
two advantages that make it more When taking network costs into Arab Emirates or in Kuwait.
efficient in capacity deployment: account, the net advantages of
load diversity and flexibility in district cooling are apparent in From a qualitative perspective,
capacity design and installation. areas of sufficient cooling density. district cooling offers more
The cost of the network depends to reliable service because of ongoing
A district cooling system tends an important degree upon the load professional operation and
to serve diverse loads—such as and configuration of the cooling maintenance. The system is quieter
residences, offices, and commercial system. Although the low energy than conventional cooling. It is also
establishments—that do not requirement, more efficient capacity more visually appealing because it
require simultaneous cooling. use, and peak-period saving potential is located remotely rather than on
District cooling is more efficient play a role, the principal factor in the roof of a building. The result is
because it aggregates peak demand determining whether the balance is that property developers have more
from these diverse loads. By favorable to the district approach flexibility in the use of space. They
contrast, single-building systems is cooling density. As the ratio of can, for instance, install rooftop
have to be designed to meet each cooling load to unit of land area pools or penthouses in place of
building’s or unit’s peak needs. served by district cooling increases, unsightly chilling equipment.

4 Booz & Company


Exhibit 3
District Cooling Is Most Suited to High-Density Areas

COST OF COOLING TECHNOLOGIES VS. COOLING DENSITY

1 Conventional cooling costs do


Density
not depend on cooling density
Cutoff
1 District cooling costs decrease with
2
increasing cooling density because
of lower relative network costs
2
Levelized Cost

3 District cooling is more cost


effective than conventional cooling
only where cooling densities are
above the “density cutoff”
DC Inappropriate DC Appropriate

Conventional Cooling
District Cooling

Cooling Density
(e.g., RT/km2)

Note: RT/km2 = refrigeration tons per square kilometer. Levelized Cost = price required to break even.
Source: Booz & Company

Exhibit 4
District Cooling Has Great Potential in the GCC

GCC FORECAST COOLING REQUIREMENTS, 2030


(IN MILLIONS OF RT)

51

74%

1% 25% 26%
22

5% 1%
50%
12

7 3%
74% Conventional Cooling (Low Density)
25% 39%
55% 3 4
Potential District Cooling Additions
42% 71% 73%
11% 26% Existing District Cooling

Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Bahrain Kuwait Oman

Sources: MEED; GWI; national statistics; World Bank; Booz & Company analysis and forecast

Booz & Company 5


THE OBSTACLES 1. Non-aggregated development
decisions. Developers of individual
of district cooling. As a result of
these supported tariffs, property
TO DISTRICT buildings make decisions in market participants, whether
COOLING a manner that discourages
consideration of district cooling.
developers, investors, or buyers,
mistakenly believe that district
Several developers are likely to cooling works economically only at
construct multiple buildings in an very high densities (see Exhibit 5).
area suitable for district cooling, Participants perceive fewer benefits
construction that occurs over than if cooling costs were based on
a period of several years. Each the actual cost of power. These low
Despite these advantages, district developer installs cooling based tariffs also mean that the perceived
cooling is unlikely to reach its full on the scope and schedule of its density cutoff, at which district
potential under current conditions. individual building programs. cooling appears more advanta-
The structure of the property and Even if the developer is aware of geous than conventional cooling, is
cooling markets in the GCC masks the advantages of collaborating greater than it really is. This effect
the economic benefits of district with neighboring developers to is exacerbated when residents pay
cooling. At no single point in the share a district cooling network, a lower tariff for electricity than
chain of transactions for a property it is usually easier, faster, for district cooling utilities, which
do the economic advantages of and cheaper to proceed with is the case in some GCC countries.
district cooling become fully in-building systems. Consequently, This in turn leads to investment
apparent. Indeed, there is no district cooling appears to be a decisions that are economically
ability to capture them through a reasonable alternative only for inefficient.
discrete purchase decision. There large complexes that can justify
are four reasons for this lack of the investment and that are not 3. Cost misperceptions. The methods
economic transparency: non- required to align their plans with developers use to pass on cooling
aggregated development decisions, those of other developers. costs to end-users make district
non-economic utility pricing, cost cooling appear artificially expensive,
misperceptions, and the risk of 2. Non-economic utility pricing. The while flattering conventional
early investment. low electricity tariffs in the GCC cooling. Thus, a technology that
obscure the economic advantages actually saves money for the

6 Booz & Company


ultimate user comes across as By contrast, the capital costs of usage, are also often hidden. There
being pricey because of different in-building cooling are factored is usually no sub-metering for
approaches to cost recovery. District in to the purchase price or rental in-building cooling systems.
cooling providers typically cover the payments—just like all other Instead, the usage costs are
capital cost of the chilling capacity property capital costs. There is no averaged and recovered indirectly—
and network through amortized reason for developers to charge either as part of the rent or through
recurring payments. On top of buyers or tenants separately for annual management fees to
the recurring capacity payments, the capital cost of providing cool individual unit owners.
providers also ask consumers to pay air. The owner or tenant therefore
a metered usage fee. Consequently, does not see the capital cost of 4. The risk of early investment.
users of district cooling are in-building cooling facilities. The Perhaps the greatest market handi-
reminded periodically of the full recurring costs of in-building cold cap faced by district cooling is that
cost of their air-conditioning. air, mainly charges for power it requires front-loaded investment.

Exhibit 5
The Market Distorts Perceptions of District Cooling

COOLING COSTS WITH ACTUAL POWER COSTS COOLING COSTS WITH APPLICABLE POWER TARIFFS

Actual
economic
benefits Perceived
economic
benefits
Cooling Cost

Cooling Cost
(cost/RT)

(cost/RT)

Conventional District
cooling more cooling more
economically economically
effective effective

Actual cutoff Actual cutoff Perceived cutoff


Cooling Density Cooling Density

Conventional Cooling
District Cooling

Source: Booz & Company

Booz & Company 7


The developer has to design and ments. This is partly because develop- One bone of contention has been
invest in the plant shell and the ers are overly optimistic about their the allocation of capacity charges.
cooling network at the beginning of projects. Partly this stems from devel- Real estate developers have made
the project. That means investing at opers relying on engineering compa- this inherently difficult aspect of cost
a moment when there is no guaran- nies that typically use safety factors to recovery worse by seeking to pass on
tee that the time frame, scope, and be cautious. In several instances, this charges to buyers or tenants. Tenants
consumption levels anticipated for reliance on developer projections has and purchasers have moved into prop-
the project will actually materialize. led to contracted loads well in excess erties only to find themselves hit with
The recent slowdown in real estate of actual loads. The result is unneces- large bills for cooling costs. Often
development has highlighted this sary capacity costs that need somehow these bills have only a small relation
risk. District cooling providers and to be distributed among providers, to residents’ actual consumption of
property developers have found developers, owners, and users. cooling. Instead, much of the cost
themselves burdened with expensive comes from fixed capacity charges.
excess capacity and over-contracted Providers and developers have also Shifting the capacity costs onto the
loads. By contrast, in-building cool- paid insufficient attention to the criti- shoulders of the tenants or buyers as
ing is developed at the same time cal factor of cooling density. There are quickly as possible is attractive for
as the individual structures. If the some examples where builders have developers as it allows them to reduce
building is delayed, then so is the used district cooling in low-density their capital costs. The danger for
in-building cooling investment. developments, where it is inherently buyers or tenants is that they often do
more expensive than conventional not understand the magnitude of those
In addition to these structural cooling alternatives. charges when they sign on the dotted
problems, district cooling is suffering line to buy or lease a property.
from two self-inflicted wounds: poor Inconsistent cost recovery models.
load planning and inconsistent cost District cooling has also damaged The result can be unfair arbitrage on
recovery models. its own cause through complex and property prices—developers can sell
diverse cost recovery models. District the property for an artificially low
Poor load planning. District cooling cooling charges are handled incon- price that saddles the unwitting buyers
providers and property developers sistently. The allocation of connec- with recovering the developer’s invest-
have repeatedly overestimated cooling tion, capacity, and consumption costs ment in district cooling. The recovery
requirements. District cooling projects among developers, owners, owners’ of capacity charges has led to multiple
historically have been sized and devel- associations, and individual tenants disputes involving real estate develop-
oped on the strength of load estimates varies from project to project and ers, owners’ associations, owners, ten-
provided by real estate developers. building to building. There are four ants, and district cooling providers.
Real estate developers chronically main models of differing intricacy and
overestimate cooling load require- transparency, detailed in Exhibit 6.

8 Booz & Company


Exhibit 6
Four Typical Cost Recovery Models and Contractual Structures

DEVELOPER RETAINS BUILDING OWNERSHIP DEVELOPER SELLS INDIVIDUAL UNITS

Developer/ DC 1 Wholesale DC service Developer/ DC 1 Potential up-front payment


1 1
1
Owner Provider agreement with capacity and Owner Provider
consumption charges 2 Wholesale DC service
No Sub-Metering

Owner’s
by DC Provider

2 2 agreement with capacity


2 Options: Association and consumption charges
Tenants - Recovery of all DC costs 3
through the rent on 3 Annual ownership fees
allocated basis (no-sub Individual
covering DC costs (e.g.,
metering by owner) Owners
allocated on m2 basis)
- Consumption charge 4
(sub-metering by owner) 4 Rent including recovery of
Tenants DC costs

Developer/ DC 1 Potential up-front payment Developer/ DC 1 Potential up-front payment


1 1
Owner Provider and wholesale DC service Owner Provider
agreement for common 2 Wholesale DC service
Owner’s
by DC Provider
Sub-Metering

2 areas 2 agreement for common


Association areas
Tenants 2 Retail DC service 3
agreement with capacity 3 Facility management fees
Individual 4
and consumption charges covering DC (variable)
Owners
costs for common areas

Tenants 4 4 Retail DC service


agreement with capacity
and consumption charges

Potential Payment
Payment Flows

Note: DC = District Cooling.


Source: Booz & Company

Booz & Company 9


THE NEED FOR Given these issues, GCC countries
will be able to deploy district cooling
and fair market framework for the
efficient and sustainable deployment
GOVERNMENT optimally only with support and of district cooling. Government
INTERVENTION guidance from the government.
Like most utilities, district cooling
intervention should aim to be
consistent and to cover three main
requires a proper regulatory areas: the designation of appropriate
framework that protects developers, zones, tariff regulation, and service
providers, consumers, and the standards and technical codes.
broader economy. Other governments
have recognized the need. Singapore, 1. Designation of appropriate zones.
for example, has designated specific Governments should mandate dis-
service areas for the award of district trict cooling in defined areas where
cooling concessions. It also subjects density levels render it appropriate.
tariffs to a defined return on assets. This can be achieved by making
Governments in Denmark, the district cooling an element of urban
Netherlands, Norway, and Poland planning, not the haphazard result
have encouraged the adoption of of developers’ decisions. For this
district heating, a technology with to happen, a systematic approach
similar advantages and disadvantages needs to be taken to assess the
as district cooling. These suitability of district cooling in
governments employ methods such new developments, simultaneous
as price regulation, mandated with urban planning. The power
zones of application, financial to mandate network zones implies
support, and state ownership of heat also the power to define exclusive
circulation networks. concession areas, to require off-
take commitments from developers,
The form of government intervention and to establish the award terms
should vary from country to country, for the concessions—terms that
reflecting broader governance could include stipulations about
structures and policies. Regulation allowable tariffs, service standards,
and licensing can provide a hospitable and future capacity investments.

10 Booz & Company


2. Tariff regulation. Governments in the design and installation of basis through a process similar to that
should establish a consistent assets. There is also a need for used with regional integrated water
national tariff framework for dis- codes governing the operational and power plants. The Universal
trict cooling. That means defining interface between district Retailer option uses a government
the allocation model of up-front, cooling providers and building entity to manage retail pricing and
recurrent, and consumption owners. Clarifying these rules administration of district cooling.
charges to property developers, of competition can give district This allows governments to offer
individual property owners, and cooling the chance to become a uniform district cooling tariffs and to
tenants. Governments will have to competitive industry. aim tariff support at certain groups of
enforce the consistent use of such residents in line with its social policy.
charging models across projects. In A further option for GCC govern-
particular, these models must pro- ments is to become economically Governments can perform these
tect individual owners and tenants involved in the market, thereby direct- economic roles singly or in
from arbitrage on real estate prices. ing the expansion of district cooling as combination. Indeed, in the GCC,
The charging models should seek to an economic actor rather than simply governments typically perform
align the charges paid by users with as a rule-setter. Governments can all three for electricity and water
actual cooling consumption. In do this by assuming one or more of services. Each role imposes
some cases, price regulation will be three potential roles: Network Owner, administrative burdens and risks.
required to provide equitable tariffs Single Buyer, or Universal Retailer. Governments should become
to users, while granting returns to economically involved only if doing
district cooling utilities commensu- Of these, the Single Buyer approach so is commensurate with gains in
rate with industry risks. involves a government entity that overall efficiency and welfare. The
finances network construction and appropriate degree of government
3. Service standards and technical assumes its ownership. This removes participation will depend on country-
codes. Governments should define from district cooling companies and specific circumstances. These include
the basic levels of reliability and real estate developers the risk inherent the degree of price distortion
performance required of district in front-end network construction. introduced by price support for
cooling providers. They should The Single Buyer involves a power tariffs and the expected density
accompany these requirements with government entity procuring district of future urban development.
technical codes to ensure quality cooling systems on a competitive

Booz & Company 11


CONCLUSION District cooling offers significant
benefits to the GCC as it plans for
justify government intervention to
prevent this important technology
an increasingly urban future. The from staying on the sidelines as GCC
technology provides environmental economies grow over the next two
protection, comfort, operational decades. By treating district cooling as
efficiency, and cost advantages over the utility it is, incorporating district
other cooling methods. However, cooling into urban planning, and
governments must take purposeful perhaps taking an active role in its
action to reap the rewards of district provision, governments can allow this
cooling. The long-term potential promising technology to play its part
capacity and fuel savings alone in the development of the GCC.

12 Booz & Company


Endnotes
1
The GCC consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

About the Authors

Dr. Walid Fayad is a partner Tarek El Sayed is a principal


with Booz & Company in with Booz & Company in
Riyadh and a member of the Beirut. An expert in corporate
firm’s energy, chemicals, and and agency strategy, he has
utilities practice. He has over 12 assisted a range of private- and
years of consulting experience public-sector clients across
in strategy, privatization, the Middle East and Europe
restructuring, and business to address energy, emissions,
building in the energy, utilities, environment, and water issues.
and telecommunications
sectors. He currently leads Simon-Pierre Monette is
Booz & Company’s activities a senior associate with
in the Middle East in the Booz & Company in Dubai. A
alternative energy and climate member of the firm’s energy,
change areas. chemicals, and utilities practice,
he specializes in developing
George Sarraf is a partner growth, investment, and low-
with Booz & Company in Abu carbon strategies in the energy
Dhabi and a member of the and utility sectors.
firm’s energy, chemicals, and
utilities practice. He has over 15
years of consulting experience
and specializes in utilities
(electricity, water, and gas). His
functional experience includes
strategy, regulations, business
development, organization
restructuring, operations, and
systems.

Booz & Company 13


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