Plan

Does GDP have more effect on youth employment or elderly employment?

I plan to look at employment in youths and employment in elderly. I plan to do this because
I am interested in the difference of young and old.

Hypothesis 1: As GDP increases elderly employment decreases.

Hypothesis 2: As GDP increases youth employment decreases.
Hypothesis 3: GDP has more of an impact on elderly employment than youth employment.

I will picked a sample size of 30 countries from the website https://data.oecd.org/ , this
means the data is secondary. I have selected a sample of 30 countries; I picked these
countries using random sampling so that there is no bias inflicted upon the data. For
example, if I picked purely MEDC countries the employment of youths would be lower
(probably). However if I picked just LEDC employment of youths it would be much higher.
To avoid this I used RAN# on the Casio calculator. This gives me a integer using this number I
will go down the list of countries counting until I have found the country, I will then repeat
so that my data is more accurate. I will do this 30 times and if a number is repeated I will
discard it, because of random sampling there could be more LEDC countries or more MEDC
countries. This does not matter as it was random sampling.
30 is an appropriate because a sample size to large would take too long and a sample size to
small would not have data to show correlation or trend etc.

This website is copyrighted under the name © 2016 Organization for Economic Co-
operation and Development. This indicates to me that this is a reliable source because it is a
copyrighted company and the mission of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) is to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-
being of people around the world. I believe that this means that this organization is
reputable.
Secondary data advantages are that it is time efficient and cost effective, this makes this
type of data much more manageable to find compared to primary, which in theory could
take years to find. The disadvantage of secondary data is that the data could be unreliable.
I have tried to overcome this by finding a reliable website to source my data. Bias may be
introduced since we do not know whether people lied about their age meaning the data
could be unreliable if this occurred. If the data turns out to be unreliable, this makes the
conclusions I will make be pointless. However, I believe the data to be reliable because of
what I mentioned earlier.
Problems that could occur are from the country of Israel, which have a disclaimer on the
website saying that the figures might not be accurate because of the ongoing conflict there
but I have chosen to include Israel as they are still human and they deserve to be in my data
also the data does not seem different. I have decided to use a sample of 30 because I
believe this is enough data to show a correlation, I can do this by calculating spearman’s
rank or using a scatter graph. Once I have a scatter graph I will draw a box plot for each
piece of data. If I have more than 30 pieces of the data it could be more reliable however it
would be too time consuming and there is only a certain amount of countries to sample, if I
had to little data there would not be enough data to draw a conclusion from.

Another problem is the population size, which is different in each country, this is a problem
because the varying population sizes means that some countries would numbers wise have
more employment or employment due to sheer size this is why the data is percentage
based.
I can display my data is by using a dual bar chart this is a good way to display data because it
compares the results for example, youth employment and elderly employment. I will be
plotting a dual bar chart because it is a good way to compare the data, I could however
draw two separate bar charts but this is a bad idea, as it does not compare the data as well
as the dual bar chart. After drawing the dual bar chart, I will draw a scatter graph to see if
there is any relationship between youth employment and elderly employment. If I believe
there to be a relationship I will calculate SR (spearman’s rank) to give an actual measure. If
the SR number is high this shows that there is a high correlation if it is low this indicates
there is a low correlation or none at all. An example could be that when GDP is higher
employment is lower. Spearman’s rank could confirm this for me.
I will choose a scatter graph to display may data as it will be easy to see negative and
positive correlation (if there is any.) on the 1y axis GDP will be plotted and on the x axis the
countries will be plotted. Ill then make another scatter graph to plot the data for
employment of youths and employment of elderly these will have two separate lines on the
graph one for young and one for old, these will be colour coded.

Outliers:
To find outliers, if there is any outliers, I will find a formula which will indicate to me which
piece of data is an outlier. A different way I could find an outlier is just by skimming the data
by eye and remove any pieces of data that are clearly outliers. One definition of outlier is
any data point more than 1.5 of the interquartile ranges (IQRs). Using this way of finding an
outlier I could calculate the interquartile range and if the interquartile range is more than
1.5, I could safely assume that the piece of data is indeed an outlier.
I will calculate mean of employment of youths then the mean employment rate of elderly
because it will give a good reference for the average percentage of each variable.
Standard Deviation:
The standard deviation of the data was 9.59221479 for employment in youth.

Youth employment and Elderly employment

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
France

Canada
Chile
Latvia

Israel

Austria

Iceland
Mexico

Finland

Denmark
Hungary

Greece

Italy

Netherlands
Australia
Poland

Korea

Germany

Ireland
Estonia

Czech Republic

Japan

Belgium

Luxembourg
Portugal

New Zealand

Series1 Series4 Series5

In conclusion, GDP does not affect the rate of employment or unemployment. However if
there was an outlier in my data it could change my results and show that in fact gdp can
effect employment. The spread of the data is very spread out I know this because the
standard deviation of the data was 9.59221479
 employment rate in youths compared to elderly
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Israel
France

Canada
Finland
Austria

Iceland
Mexico
Poland
Hungary

Latvia
Chile

Greece

Italy

Denmark
Germany
Korea

New Zealand

Netherlands
Australia

Ireland
Estonia

Czech Republic
Portugal

Japan

Belgium

Luxembourg
Series1 Series2 Series3

Employment rates in youths is blue

`

The spearman’s rank coefficient for employment in elderly people is -0.3 this indicates to
me that there is a weak negative correlation. The spearman’s rank coefficient is -0.5 for
youth employment. This shows me there is a definite negative correlation between GDP and
employment.
.
Hypothesis 1: As GDP increases elderly employment decreases
Conclusion: In conclusion, visually from the scatter graph we can see that GDP does not
relate to the amount of elderly employed, we can see this because there is no linear
correlation, this disproves hypothesis 1. Age does seem to play a big factor as well, older
people are more employed than younger people. If there was an outlier in this data then we
could have seen a different result in the data. The spearmans rank was -0.3 this tells me that
there is a negative correlation relating to gdp and employment rate. This tells me gdp does
not affect employment.
Hypothesis 2: As GDP increases youth employment decreases.
Furthermore hypothesis 2 is also disproven as the scatter graph also contains no linear
correlation. Additionally the spearmans rank of the GDP and employment data was -0.5 this
tells me that there is a moderate negative correlation which indicates to me that there is a
weak connection between GDP and employment of youths.
Hypothesis 3: GDP has more of an impact on elderly employment than youth employment.
Hypothesis 3 has been disproven aswell the data between GDP and employment data has
shown me that there is little connection between GDP and employment so I can now
cautiously say that GDP does not effect elderly employment or youth employment.