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Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ile İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Sınır Testi
Yaklaşımıyla Analizi
Analysis Of Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment via ARDL
Bound Test Approach
Arş. Gör. Uğur UYĞUN
Sakarya University, uguruygun@sakarya.edu.tr
Doç. Dr. Fatih YARDIMCIOĞLU
Sakarya University, fyoglu@sakarya.edu.tr

ÖZET

Bu çalışmada 1988-2014 yıllarını kapsayan ekonomik büyüme oranı verileri ile işsizlik oranı verileri
analize tabi tutularak araştırılmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki nedensellik
ilişkisini belirlemek amacıyla Granger ve Toda-Yamamoto testleri uygulanmıştır ve sonuç olarak
değişkenler arasında herhangi nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Ayrıca ekonomik büyüme oranı ve
işsizlik oranı verileri üzerinde ARDL sınır testi uygulanarak serilerin eştümleşik olduğu sonucuna
ulaşılmıştır.

© 2017 PESA Tüm hakları saklıdır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik, ARDL Sınır Testi

ABSTRACT

In this study economic growth rate and unemployment rate in Turkey for 1988-2014 period has been
analyzed. To determine causality relationship between economic growth rate and unemployment rate,
Granger and Toda-Yamamoto tests have been applied to datasets and consequently no relationship
amongst variables has been found. Also, ARDL Bound Test has been applied to economic growth rate
and unemployment rate datasets and it has been reached that those two series are cointegrated.

© 2017 PESA All rights reserved. Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, ARDL Bound Test

Note: Please use APA for Citiation/Lütfen alıntılamada APA’yı kullanınız.

Introduction Commented [MÖ1]: 11 pt, bold, title case
Globalization phenomenon gives rises to many and somewhat peculiar developments in economies of Commented [MÖ2]: 1st line of each paragraphs left
the modern world. Emergence and spread of interest free economic models and banking systems can aligned
be cited as examples. Similarly, Islamic indices are compiled to oversee the performance of the firms
activities of which are Shariah compliant. (Kane, 2013: 13) Commented [f3]: Please use this style for ctiation.
1. Participation 30 Index Commented [MÖ4]: 11pt, Left aligned, title case,
numbered, bold
Participation 30 Index (PI30) is an index comprised of stocks traded at Borsa Istanbul National Market
which are in compliance with the principles of participation banking………
Moreover, companies included in the PI30 are required to meet some financial ratios as
summarized below:
(i) Both the rate of total interest-bearing debt of companies and that of interest-bearing cash and Commented [MÖ5]: (i), (ii)…. should be used for
securities to their market value shall be lower than 30%; itemization

(ii) The rate of income from aforementioned fields to total income shall be lower than 5%.
n
Commented [MÖ6]: Equations should be prepared by
Et   Fit xN it xH it xK it / Bt using mathtype, etc.
i 1

Table 1: Companies in Participation 30 Index Commented [MÖ7]: Left aligned, numbered, 11pt, bold
(e.g. Table 1), Title case, Title should be above the table.
Bim Mağazalar (BIMAS) Aygaz (AYGAZ) Good-Year (GOODY)
Asya Katılım Bankası
Ereğli Demir Çelik (EREGL) Mardin Çimento (MRDIN)
(ASYAB)
Source: Participation 30 Index Introduction Presentation, www.katilimendeksi.org [September 15, 2015].
2. Data, Methodology and Analysis
2.1. The Data and the Methodology Commented [MÖ8]: 2nd headings numbered, e.g. 1.1.,
1.2, … 2.1,2.2
This study uses the daily series of Participation 30 Index during the period from 01.06.2011 to
08.31.2015 to test its stationarity. Daily PI30 data is taken from BIST Data Store. Closing prices are
used here.
Graph 1: The PI30 (01.06.2011-08.31.2015)
PI30
90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000
250 500 750 1000
Source: BIST
Conclusion Commented [MÖ9]: NOT be numbered
We observe that new indices have been developed continuously in financial markets where many
already exist. The indices developed to measure the performance of the stock shares which comply
with the standards developed according to Islamic principles. Borsa Istanbul (BIST) publishes
Participation 30 Index and Participation 50 Index.

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