158 DSlevi Stoch Demand

A research and education initiative at the MIT
Sloan School of Management
Effective Dynamic Pricing Strategies with

Stochastic Demand
Paper 158
Lap Mui Ann Chan

David Simchi-Levi
July 2001
Julie Swann
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ZRI Ak 8stk h8R B {YBBR s h-I }${ Rsk =R$t Y$R }${ b I8$t Y
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P B Y$R RB{YsR${ Rsk sR Y C;B h Rsk qY R{BtI Rsk $R AsRI Bt
htI$t Y B}$8sj h-I }${ s,$t Zt{s$tk $tB s{{BZt G P B Y$R }BAj8 sR
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nd1 _ss8R stI ]sR

yt Y {B8}Zs$Btsj RZIk b -s8$t {sRR b$Y %s$s$BtR Bt Y PBjjBb$t }ss8RU
{s}s{$k R0 I8stI ;0 YBjI$t {BR _0 stI }BIZ{$Bt {BR >0 es{Y }BAj8 {BtR$RR
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B A s Rsj%s {BR JZsj B b${ YBjI$t {BR $t Y jsR }$BI qY I8stI {Z% bsR
I8$tI Ak ss$t j$ts I8stI {Z%R PB R$-kTh% R$8$js }BIZ{R }B%$II B
ZR Ak BZ $tIZR$sj }st G P B Y$R I8stI {Z% sR Y RstIsI I8stI {Z%
sRI Bt PIAs{, PB8 BZ $tIZR$sj R}BtRB b 8BIj I8stI {Z%R B A s j$ts
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$R IhtI sR Y }{ts {Yst $t %BjZ8 \ }{ts {Yst $t }${ stI $ $R sRRZ8I
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qY I8stI {Z% sR }B%$II {st sR$jk A {Bt%I $tB Y sI$$Btsj PB8 b$Y RjB}
stI $t{} YBb% Y IR{$}$Bt BP Y }ss8R -s8$tI $R 8B 8st$tPZj b$Y
Y B$$tsj PB8 BP Y {Z%
G s }s${Zjsjk $tRI $t Y &{ BP I8stI %s$sA$j$k Bt Y }PB8st{
BP Ikts8${ stI h-I }${$t G {BtR$I ABY RsRBtsj$k w{YstR $t Y I8$t$R${
I8stI {Z%D sR bjj sR Zt{s$tk wY }R$jBt {B8}Btt BP Y I8stI PZt{$BtD
qB 8sRZ I8stI Zt{s$tk b Iht Y {B^{$t BP %s$s$Bt BP I8stI $t s
$%t }$BI sR PBjjBbRU g~J ) X0Q8w;0 DbEyzw;0 D bY ;0 ) Q0 wh0 , 60 wh0 DD 3B s $%t
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}${ $t s{Y }$BI Vjts$%jk b sjRB RI {sRR bY 6 bsR $tI}tIt BP }${
stI I8$tI Y I8stI Zt{s$tk $t s{Y }$BI stI b BAs$tI R$8$js RZjR PB
YR RR
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}B$Bt BP I8stI B% Y t$ $8 YB$9Bt qYZR $ $R ZRPZj B Iht Y B}$8sj
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1(
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I8$t$R${ I8stI b ZR Y {B^{$t BP %s$s$Bt BP ;E b sjRB P B Y$R sR
g~C bY Y 8st stI RstIsI I%$s$Bt BP Y I8$t$R${ s$B s {sj{ZjsI B%
Y t$ YB$9Bt
]s}s{$k j%jR bY$j ,} {BtRst PB s }s${Zjs }BAj8 b sjjBbI B %sk PB8
}BAj8 B }BAj8 s x x stI d( $8R Y Zt{s}s{$sI B}$8sj I8stI BP Y
RstIsI j$ts {Z% jBb b IR{$A Y R}{$h{R BP Y {sRR ZRI
T ]sR dU e&{ BP *8stI 7sRBtsj$k

G RZIk Y $8}s{ BP I8stI RsRBtsj$k Ak ,}$t Y I8stI Zt{s$tk {BtT
Rst B% sjj }$BIR wg~J ) (31D zs$s$Bt $t I8stI bsR $tBIZ{I $t Y I8stI
{Z% Ak sjjBb$t ABY Y AsR I8stI stI Y I8stI jsR${$k B {Yst }$BIT
${sjjk 3B Y$R }Z}BR b Rs b$Y s $%t AsR I8stI stI I8stI jsR${$k
bY${Y s PI B sR Y RstIsI }ss8R G Yt %sk Y AsR I8stI stI
I8stI jsR${$k }$BI${sjjk sR s }{ts BP Y RstIsI %sjZR qY }{t
%s$s$Bt j%jR {BtR$II s (M T d1 (E T d; (; T dE stI (1 T dM PB Y AsR
I8stI stI ( T dd (M T d1 ( T dn stI (E T d; PB Y I8stI jsR${$k qY
%s$s$Bt $t I8stI jsR${$k $R R8sjj Yst Y %s$s$Bt $t AsR I8stI B tRZ
Ys jsR${$$R Pjj $t s{{}sAj stR yt sjj {sRR Y s%s AsR I8stI stI
Y s%s jsR${$k s{BRR Y t$ YB$9Bt b JZsj B Y RstIsI %sjZR qY
RZj$t %sjZR BP g~C s (M d 1E stI n
T ]sR 1U e&{ BP *8stI =t{s$tk

yt$$sjjk b {BtR$I s {sR b$Y 9B I8stI RsRBtsj$k bY Y I8$t$R${ IT
8stI {Z% $t sjj }$BIR $R JZsj B Y RstIsI I8stI {Z% G %sk Y I8stI
Zt{s$tk Ak h-$t g~J B A (d (1 (n stI (; wstI {sj{Zjs$t s {BR}BtI$t
RstIsI I%$s$Bt BP 6 $t s{Y }$BID qY ABZtIR Bt Y RB{YsR${ }B$Bt BP IT
8stI s 1 RstIsI I%$s$BtR PB8 Y 8st $t $Y I${$Bt B ( bY${Y% $R
s 3B Y {B8A$tI &{ BP RsRBtsj$k stI Zt{s$tk b h-I Y RsRBtsjT
$k B A Y R{BtI {sR IR{$AI sAB% wg~C ) (3dD stI {BtR$I Y Rs8 j%jR
BP g~J
G b sjRB $tRI $t BY {sRR }s${Zjsjk BtR ZRPZj $t {B8}s$t I$&t
}s$sj }jstt$t Rs$R qB sZ Y$R &{ b {BtR$I Y PBjjBb$tU
T ]sR nU e&{ BP _BIZ{$Bt ]BR

G BAs$tI st s%s }BIZ{$Bt {BR PB8 BZ $tIZR$sj }st b {sjj Y$R Y
RstIsI }BIZ{$Bt {BR VII$$Btsjjk b -s8$tI %s$BZR j%jR BP }BIZ{$Bt {BR
( (x d( stI dx $8R Y RstIsI }BIZ{$Bt {BR 3B YR {sRR b j g~J ) (31
stI g~C ) (3d b {BtR$II Y$R B A BZ RstIsI {sR BP I8stI %s$sA$j$k
T ]sR ;U e&{ BP _BIZ{ ]Yss{$R${R

qY {sRR IR{$AI YZR Ps Ys% sjj YsI Y Rs8 AsR${ RsRBtsj$k Ps{BR G b
1d
1.4
1.2
1
% of Base Demand
0.8 Seas
Seas2
IncMean
DecMean
0.6 Sawtooth
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time (periods)
3$Z dU x e-s8}jR BP _BIZ{ 7sRBtsj$k
sjRB $tRI $t Y }PB8st{ BP Y %s$BZR Rs$R ZtI BY RsRBtsj$k Ps{T
BR qY RsRBtsj$k Ps{BR Ys b ZRI jBBRjk {BR}BtI b$Y I$&t }BIZ{
k}R V A$P IR{$}$Bt BP Y }BIZ{ k}R PBjjBbR b$Y s PZjj IR{$}$Bt s%s$jsAj
$t $jj sj w1(((D *{sR$t st w*{stD YsR I8stI Ys $R tBtT$t{sR$t
B% Y YB$9Bt j$, I8stI PB s js}B} yt{sR$t st wyt{stD YsR I8stI
Ys $R tBtTI{sR$t B% Y YB$9Bt R$8$js B }BIZ{R b$Y bBITBPT8BZY PT
P{R RZ{Y sR s 8ZR${sj ]* 7sRBtsj$k d w7sRdD YsR JZsjk RsRBtsj$k jBb s
hR Y$Y $t Y 8$IIj jBb s Y tI BP Y YB$9Bt stI 7sR1 $R Y R{ts$B
{BR}BtI$t B B}}BR$ JZsjk I8stI j%jR qY RsbBBY R{ts$B $R ZRI PB
sII$$Btsj {B8}s$RBt stI YsR I8stI sjts$t Abt jBb stI Y$Y b$Y RB8
sII$$Btsj %s$sA$j$k B% Y YB$9Bt 3$Z d }RtR Y B}$8sj Zt{s}s{$sI
I8$t$R${ I8stI BP s{Y R{ts$B IR{$AI yt sjj {sRR }RtI Y g~C $R
(d1 stI Y g~J $R (1 Y }jstt$t YB$9Bt YsR bj% }$BIR stI Y }BIZ{$Bt
{BR $R RstIsI PB Y I8stI {Z% ZRI
qY {B8}j-$k BP Y _s$sj _jstt$t sjB$Y8R {st A I{sRI Ak 8}jBk$t RsT
$R Ys -}jB$ Y RZ{Z BP Y }BAj8 yt }s${Zjs s 3sR 3BZ$ qstRPB8 w33qD
8sk A ZRI B {sj{Zjs s "{Bt%BjZ$Bt" bY${Y $R $tYt $t Y {sj{Zjs$BtR sAB% 3B
PZY Is$jR Bt Y$R R 7bstt w1((dD
11
n1 ytR$YR PB8 ]B8}Zs$Btsj VtsjkR$R

!Z {B8}Zs$Btsj AsRI {sR RZIk %sjR s tZ8A BP $tR$YR yt }s${Zjs $ RYBbR
YsU
T _s$sj }jstt$t Ikts8${ }${$t R$t$h{stjk $t{sRR }Bh $t 8stk R$Zs$BtR }sT
${Zjsjk bYt I8$t$R${ I8stI $R Y$Yjk %s$sAj stI bYt {s}s{$k $R $Y
T _PB8st{ BP Ikts8${ }${$t tIR B $t{sR sR RsRBtsj$k $t{sRR stI sR {sT

}s{$k $R $Y
T qY *jskI _${$t <Z$R${ ZRZsjjk BZ}PB8R Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${
e-{}$BtR $t{jZI bYt }BIZ{$Bt {BR $R Y$Y
jBb b I$R{ZRR YR $t 8B Is$j
n1d _PB8st{ qtIR

T VR {s}s{$k A{B8R 8B {BtRs$tI Y Ath BP Ikts8${ }${$t tIR B $t{sR
qY$R &{ {st A R$t$h{st 3B -s8}j R 3$Z 1 bY Zt{s$tk $R h-I stI
RsRBtsj$k $t{sRR yt s {sR b$Y 8BIs %s$sA$j$k wg~C ) (1ED {BtRs$t$t
Y {s}s{$k B x(0 jsIR B Ex0 }Bh }Bt$sj PB Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${
sR {B8}sI B d;0 PB Y {sR b$Y {s}s{$k JZsj B ;E qY$R YBjIR Z bYt
-s8$t$t Zt{s$tk sR bjj w3$Z n b$Y 9B RsRBtsj$k stI 3$Z ; b$Y h-I
RsRBtsj$kD 3B $tRst{ $t 3$Z ; s jBb %s$sA$j$k {sR wg~J ) (3dD PB Y
*jskI _${$t <Z$R${ YsR sABZ d0 }Bh PB Y {sR b$Y js s%s$jsAj {s}s{$k
stI sj8BR x0 }Bh PB Y {sR b$Y $Y {s}s{$k {BtRs$tR qY$R RZ}}BR tIR
Rt $t Y {B8}Zs$Btsj stsjkR$R b$Y I8$t$R${ I8stI sR bjj
!P {BZR Y$R tI $R tB RZ}$R$t R$t{ $ A{B8R 8B $8}Bst B sjjB{s
RBZ{R &{$%jk bYt YBR RBZ{R s R{s{ BY BP Y }s$sj }jstt$t Rs$R
Ys% }${$t sR s 4-$A$j$k BBj bY$j Y 3$-I _${$t Rsk IBR tB
T qY Ath BP Ikts8${ }${$t tIR B $t{sR sR I8stI RsRBtsj$k $t{sRR

e-s8$t tBb 3$Z 1 yt Y$R s}Y b R Y tI PB ABY *jskI _BIZ{$Bt stI
*jskI _${$t 3B Y *jskI _${$t <Z$R${ b$Y Y 8$IIj j%j BP {s}s{$k
Y s jBb RsRBtsj$k wg~C ) (3(MD RR 110 $t{sR $t }Bh bYsR Y Y$Y j%j
BP RsRBtsj$k YsR Ed0 }Bh }Bt$sj qY tI YBjIR Z PB {sRR b$Y Y$Y
{s}s{$k sR bjj s jBb RsRBtsj$k wg~C ) (3(MD YsR (n0 }Bh }Bt$sj bY$j Y
Y$YR RsRBtsj$k YsR d0 }Bh }Bt$sj
qY$R $R RB8bYs $tZ$$% !t -}{R Ys sR Y j%j BP %s$sA$j$k $t{sRR Y
tI PB 4-$A$j$k $t{sRR stI Y$R 4-$A$j$k $R }B%$II Ak Y tBtTRs$Btsk }${$t
Rs$R
1n
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
Cap = 0.5 Dem*, Strategy 1

Profit Potential

Cap = Dem*, Strategy 1
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
-2.0%
Coefficient of Variation (Cap/Deter Dt)
3$Z 1U y8}s{ BP 7sRBtsj zs$sA$j$k bYt =t{s$tk $R ]BtRst
yt {BtsR Y }PB8st{ BP Y Rs$R ZtI $t{sR$t Zt{s$tk $R jRR {js
3$ZR n stI ; I}${ Y &{ BP I8stI Zt{s$tk bYt RsRBtsj$k $R 9B B {BtRst
B% Y YB$9Bt yt 3$Z n Y }Bh }Bt$sj PB Y *jskI _${$t <Z$R${ $t{sRR
b$Y $t{sR$t Zt{s$tk AZ Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ }PB8R 8B }BBjk sR
Y Zt{s$tk $t{sRR qY$R j$,jk }B$tR B st $tsA$j$k BP *jskI _BIZ{$Bt B Isj
b$Y Zt}I${sAj $t%tBk RZj$t PB8 js %s$sA$j$k qY s s tZ8A BP {sRR
bY 4-$A$j$k $t }${ 8sk A s 8B &{$% BBj Yst }BIZ{$Bt 4-$A$j$k R$t{ }BT
IZ{$Bt {sttB Zjk A ZRI B IZ{ Y $t%tBk {Ztjk $t Y RkR8 yt 3$Z ;
s R$8$js tI YBjIRuY *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ YsR I{sR$t }PB8st{ sR RBT
{YsR${ Zt{s$tk $t{sRR qY }PB8st{ BP Y *jskI _${$t <Z$R${ $R RB8bYs
A Yst *jskI _BIZ{$Bt stI Y$R }PB8st{ $R Ps$jk 4s B% Y I$&t {sRR
!P {BZR Y$R s}Y $R s&{I Ak Y k} stI j%j BP I8$t$R${ I8stI RsRBtsj$k
y $R sjRB ZRPZj B tB Ys bY$j Y *jskI _${$t <Z$R${ BZ}PB8R 3$-I
_${$t wstI Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${D $t sjj BP Y {sRR RYBbt s $8R 3$-I
_${$t $R s A }Bj${k Yst Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ qY$R $R }s${Zjsjk Z
$t Y {sR b$Y 9B RsRBtsj$k w3$Z nD !P {BZR Y$R $R IZ B Y Ps{ Ys $t Y
h-I }${ }Bj${k b ZR Y B}$8sj }${ bYsR $t Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ Y
}${R s tB B}$8sjjk {YBRt
V Rj$Y &{ R 3$Z x $R Ys Y Ath PB8 Ikts8${ }${$t w*jskI _BIZ{$Bt
stI *jskI _${$tD 8sk $t{sR sR }BIZ{$Bt {BR $t{sRR qY$R $R tB t{RRs$jk s
RBt &{ $tII $t Bt {sR $ $R {jsjk tB Z w*jskI _${$t js {s}s{$k
s%s$jsAjD Z $t 8stk BP Y BY {sRR s Y$Y }BIZ{$Bt {BR jI B 8B B}}BZt$k
1;
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%

Profit Potential
0.0% Cap = 0.75 Dem*, Strategy 1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Cap = Dem*, Strategy 1
-1.0% Cap = 0.75 Dem*, Strategy 2
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
Coefficient of Variation (Stochastic Dt)
3$Z nU y8}s{ BP =t{s$tk bYt 7sRBtsj$k $R B
PB Ikts8${ }${$t Rs$R

G sjRB -s8$t Y }PB8st{ BP Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ {B8}sI B Y
Z}} ABZtI I%jB}I $t N88s 1;
T *jskI _BIZ{$Bt s{Y$%R s R$t$h{st }B$Bt BP Y =}} BZtI
yt tsj Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ }PB8R JZ$ bjj {B8}sI B Y
Z}} ABZtI yt sjj {sRR Y -}{I }Bh BP Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${
bsR $t Y st BP 10 B 0 BP Y Z}} ABZtI BP N88s 1; yt 8BR {sRR Y
s$B BP -}{I }Bh tsI Ak Y YZ$R${ B Y Z}} ABZtI $ . I bB wQD d
$R sBZtI E0 qk}${sjjk Y }PB8st{ BP -}{I }Bh {B8}sI B Y Z}}
ABZtI tII B I{sR b$Y $t{sR$t Zt{s$tk qY$R $R tB RZ}$R$t R$t{
Y ABZtI IBR tB s{{BZt PB Zt{s$tk s sjj stI $R j$,jk B A bs, b$Y Y$Y
Zt{s$tk
V A$P I$R{ZRR$Bt BP Y Rs%TZ}TB $t%tBk sR $R sjRB ZRPZj VR IR{$AI }T
%$BZRjk YR $t%tBk sR b ZRI $t Y I8$ts$Bt BP Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt
<Z$R${ yt 8BR {sRR b PBZtI Ys Y B}$8sj %sjZ BP Y s bsR 9B <Bb%
$t RB8 {sRR Y B}$8sj RBjZ$Bt RZjI $t tBtT9B %sjZR PB Y Rs%TZ}TB sR
yt }s${Zjs Bt R$Zs$Bt Ys 8sk RZj $t tBtT9B %sjZR BP Y Rs%TZ}TB sR
$R bYt }BIZ{$Bt {BR $R Y$Y 3B -s8}j $t 3$Z x Y sR RZj$t PB8 Y
*jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ b tBtT9B PB s jsR Bt }$BI bYt Y }BIZ{$Bt
{BR $R s Y Y$YR j%j VtBY {sR Ys 8sk jsI B tBtT9B Rs%TZ}TB %sjZR $R
bYt RB{YsR${ RsRBtsj$k $R 8BIs wg~J ) (31D stI I8$t$R${ RsRBtsj$k $R Y$Y
1x
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%

Profit Potential

0.0%
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
-1.0%
-2.0%
Coefficient of Variation (Stochastic Dt)
3$Z ;U y8}s{ BP =t{s$tk bYt 7sRBtsj$k $R ]BtRst
wg~C ) 3nD R 3$Z 1 qY$R $R tB RZ}$R$t R$t{ Y I8$t$R${ RsRBtsj$k %sjZR
s ,tBbt $t sI%st{ BP }BIZ{$Bt stI $t%tBk I{$R$BtR yt {BtsR bYt RB{YsR${
RsRBtsj$k $R Y$Y R 3$Z \PhU9BRsR tBt BP Y {sRR I}${I YsI tBtT9B Rs%T
Z}TB sR 3$tsjjk PB Y {sRR Ys Ys% ABY I8$t$R${ stI RB{YsR${ I8stI
%s$sA$j$k RYBbt $t 3$Z ; Y {sRR b$Y g~J ) (3d RZj $t RB8 tBtT9B s
%sjZR
3B Y {sRR IR{$AI b$Y }BR$$% Rs%TZ}TB %sjZR YR %sjZR YsI 8$t$8sj &{
Bt -}{I }Bh qY$R bsR sR{s$tI Ak s}}jk$t Y *jskI _BIZ{$Bt <Z$R${ b$Y
Rs%TZ}TB %sjZR BP ( stI {B8}s$t Y -}{I }Bh
n11 ]B8}s$RBt BP 7s$R

T s,$t h-I }${$t I{$R$BtR ZtI I8$t$R${ I8stI $R BPt RZ^{$t
ytZ$$Bt RZRR Ys 8s,$t s h-I }${$t I{$R$Bt bY$j {BtR$I$t RB{YsR${
I8stI bBZjI A s R$t$h{st $8}B%8t B% 8s,$t Y I{$R$Bt ZtI I8$tT
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1E
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0% Cap = 0.5 Dem*

Profit Potential
Cap = 0.75 Dem*

Cap = Dem*
4.0%
3.0% Cap=Dem*, Strategy 2
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1000 1000 3000 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000
-1.0%
Production Cost
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1
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
Profit Potential of FP
7.0%
6.0%
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Cap = 0.75 Dem*
4.0% Cap = 1.0 Dem*
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
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1M
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
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1.5% Strategy 1
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0.5%
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A research and education initiative at the MIT

Sloan School of Management

Effective Dynamic Pricing Strategies with

Lap Mui Ann Chan

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