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Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most
commonly by analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of
interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to
formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to
less formal judgmental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example,
in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at
certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the
number of times floods will occur over a long period.
Although the time series notation has been used here, the average approach can also be used for cross-sectional
data (when we are predicting unobserved values; values that are not included in the data set). Then, the
prediction for unobserved values is the average of the observed values.
Naïve approach
Naïve forecasts are the most cost-effective forecasting model, and provide a benchmark against which
more sophisticated models can be compared. This forecasting method is only suitable for time
series data Using the naïve approach, forecasts are produced that are equal to the last observed value. This
method works quite well for economic and financial time series, which often have patterns that are
difficult to reliably and accurately predict.[4] If the time series is believed to have seasonality, seasonal
naïve approach may be more appropriate where the forecasts are equal to the value from last season. The
naïve method may also use a drift, which will take the last observation plus the average change from the
first observation to the last observation.[4] In time series notation:
Drift method
A variation on the naïve method is to allow the forecasts to increase or decrease over time, where the
amount of change over time (called the drift) is set to be the average change seen in the historical data. So
the forecast for time T+ h is given by
This is equivalent to drawing a line between the first and last observation, and extrapolating it into the
future.
Time series methods
Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.
Causal / econometric forecasting methods
Some forecasting methods try to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is
being forecast. For example, including information about climate patterns might improve the ability of a
model to predict umbrella sales. Forecasting models often take account of regular seasonal variations. In
addition to climate, such variations can also be due to holidays and customs: for example, one might
predict that sales of college football apparel will be higher during the football season than during the off
season.
Several informal methods used in causal forecasting do not employ strict algorithms , but instead use the
judgment of the forecaster. Some forecasts take account of past relationships between variables: if one
variable has, for example, been approximately linearly related to another for a long period of time, it may
be appropriate to extrapolate such a relationship into the future, without necessarily understanding the
reasons for the relationship.
Judgmental methods
Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgement, opinions and
subjective probability estimates. Judgmental forecasting is used in cases where there is lack of historical
data or during completely new and unique market conditions.
Artificial intelligence methods
Artificial neural networks
Group method of data handling
Support vector machines
Often these are done today by specialized programs loosely labeled
Data mining
Machine Learning
Pattern Recognition
Electricity demand forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers and other participants in
electric energy generation, transmission, distribution and markets. Accurate models for electric power
load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. Load forecasts are
extremely important for energy suppliers and other participants in electric energy generation,
transmission, distribution and markets. This paper presents a review of electricity demand forecasting
techniques. The various types of methodologies and models are included in the literature. Load
forecasting can be broadly divided into three categories: short-term forecasts which are usually from one
hour to one week, medium forecasts which are usually from a week to a year, and long-term forecasts
which are longer than a year. Based on the various types of studies presented in these papers, the load
forecasting techniques may be presented in three major groups: Traditional Forecasting technique,
Modified Traditional Technique and Soft Computing Technique.
-vector of adapted variables such as time, temperature, light intensity, wind speed, humidity, day type
(workday, weekend), etc., at -transposed vector of regression coefficients and et-Model error at time t.
Lu developed an adaptive Hammerstein model with an orthogonal escalator structure as well as a lattice
structure for joint processes. This model used a joint Hammerstein nonlinear time-varying functional
relationship between load and temperature. This algorithm performed better than the commonly used
RLS (Recursive Least-square) algorithm. Grady enhanced and applied the algorithm developed by Lu.
An improvement was obtained in the ability to forecast total system hourly load as far as 5 days
McDonald , presented an adaptive-time series model and simulated the effects of a direct load control
strategy. A composite model for load prediction composed of three components (nominal load, type load
and residual load) was developed by Park in .
Where, Lk is the predicted load at time k (min), is a random load disturbance, αi , i =1…m are unknown
coefficients and above given equation is the auto regressive model of order m. The unknown coefficients
in equation can be tuned on-line using the well-known least mean square (LMS) algorithm of Mbamalu
and El-Hawary . Huang and Zhao proposed an autoregressive model with an optimum threshold
stratification algorithm and two periodical autoregressive (PAR) models for hourly load forecasting
respectively
The other artificial intelligence-based technique involves the use of genetic algorithms, and it deals with
the utilization of genetic programming in predicting long-term consumption of electricity. The results
obtained from this procedure are reliable as the method, if successfully undertaken, usually has a low
chance of errors. This approach also uses a genetic neural network model that can adapt and learn, which
means that it is robust. At this point, the model includes the ideas and experiences of experts in the field
in order to create a comprehensive effect whereby, all variables that affect power load are reflected. This
examination makes it apparent that the technique uses a numerical optimization approach. The main
advantage of using genetic algorithms is that they include all aspects of computing such as imprecision,
non-linearity, robustness, as well as uncertainty.
According to Ghods (254), Support Vector Machine is a method used for classifying information or data,
to obtain good generalization on a limited number of learning patterns. It is a technique based on a
concept known as structural risk minimization. For instance, recurrent neural network is part
of this technique and runs under the idea that every unit is an output of the entire network. There are two
main categories for SMVs namely Support Vector Classification (SVC) and Support Vector
Regression(SVR). SVM is a learning system that applies a high dimensional feature space and yields
prediction or forecasting functions that are expanded on a subset of support vectors. SVM can generalize
complicated gray level structures with only a very few support vectors and thus provides a new
mechanism for image compression as pointed out by Basak et al. (2007).
Exponential smoothing
Exponential smoothing is one of the approaches used for load forecasting. In this method, first load is
model based on previous data, then to use this model to predict the future load. In Moghram and
Rahman’s exponential smoothing model, the load at time t, y(t), is modelled using a fitting function and is
expressed in the form [9]:
Where, f(t)Fitting function vector of the process, β(t)-Coefficient of vector, n(t)White noise and T-
Transpose operator. The Winter’s method is one of existing exponential smoothing methods having
capacity to analyze seasonal time series directly. It is based on three smoothing constants for stationary,
trend and seasonality. Barakat [14] analyzed the result of the model and conclude that unique pattern of
energy and demand pertaining to fast growing areas was difficult to analyze and predict by direct
application of the Winter’s method. Exponential smoothing was augmented with power spectrum analysis
and adaptive autoregressive modelling in El-Keib hybrid approach. Infield and Hill optimal smoothing
based trend removal technique has been shown to compare favorably with conventional methods of load
forecasting.
Fuzzy Logic
The fuzzy logic model is a rule-based system that applies fuzzy rules, which are control decision
mechanisms. The rules usually adjust the impacts that definite stimuli have on energy demand as a factor.
The model maps on a set of input variables to a set of output variable simply using the IF-THEN logic
statement to predict and forecasting. These types of mappings allow the incorporation of expert
knowledge with Fuzzy Logic models. These models can provide algorithms that transform linguistic
strategy obtained from experts into automatic strategies. Fuzzy rules are often integrated with neural
networks so as to train artificial neural networks, as well as acquire accurate results in terms of load
demand forecasting. The advantage of this hybrid system is that it utilizes the benefits of both artificial
neural networks and fuzzy inferences thereby, formalizing and handling knowledge and experience of
expert forecasters (Alfares and Nazeeruddin, 2007).
Expert Systems
Expert systems are known to apply rules which have been generated by experts in the field. These
procedures and rules are then transformed into software, which can automatically make forecasts about
electricity demand. However, in order for the software to be efficient, expert forecasters will have to work
hand in hand with software developers to include all expert information into the software. Here, software
developers will be involved in coding all the information obtained from experts in forming software rules.
The advantage of utilizing this method is that it is fast, accurate and easy to use when forecasting
information about electricity demand (Ghods, 2011). This is because it involves the use of software
applications, which usually run at the click of a button. F. The Similar Day Approach This technique
involves searching for historical information, which has similar traits with the day forecasted. These
characteristics may include the weather, the date and even month. In this case, load of a day, which has
got similar characteristics, will be considered to be the forecast. The technique can as well apply linear
techniques whereby, the forecast can be obtained from a group of days with similar traits(Islam, 2011).
This technique is based on the concept that information obtained on electricity demand usually has an
internal structure, which might be in the form of an autocorrelation, seasonal variation or trend. These
methods explore and detect the internal structure and are utilized in such fields as digital signaling,
processing, electric load forecasting, as well as economics. For instance, Autoregressive Moving
Average(ARMA), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Moving
Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMA-EOV) are examples of time series techniques.
One method used in forecasting, which applies statistical techniques is known as the econometric
approach. This method applies a variety of techniques such as time series, regression, statistical learning
algorithms and fuzzy logic. This approach integrates statistical methods and economic theory when
forecasting demand for electricity. Additionally, this method attempts to obtain estimates observed
between energy consumption, which is the independent variable, and all other factors that affect
consumption, which represent the dependent variables.
Conclusions
Load forecasting or prediction is a useful mechanism as it enables electric power companies to save in
terms of cost and efficiency. Most companies utilize load forecasting techniques based on historical data
on consumers by analyzing their electricity utilization of application. Some techniques are complex
because the factors utilized as the load frequently have complex variables. This implies that the more
complex the method applied, the more accurate the results obtained. This automatically shows that
artificial-based techniques will produce the most accurate results as they incorporate all aspects of factors
such as the social, environment and the economy. These techniques are observed to employ complex
techniques, which identify both linear and non-linear relationships that can be seen between electricity
consumption, as well as factors affecting consumption. Furthermore, these techniques are mostly used by
experts as they usually rely on their experience and opinions in order to be accurate. In the long run,
experts in this field will have to analyze these variables at length in order to have a clear understanding as
to how they behave, in an effort to create advanced methods of forecasting load or electricity demand.
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