Global Cooling: immediate and gentle cooling strategies to

help prevent global famine 2020-2050

abstract et propositions
en français vers le fin

Author:
Andy Ray Taylor
Country of Origin: UK
ray [at] theglobalcoolingproject.com

Address:
25 Hawthorn Avenue
Oxford
OX3 9JQ
UK +44 845 058 0532

Keywords
Global cooling, land-atmosphere, geoengineering, permaculture, famine, wetlands, clouds,
green water credits, rainwater harvesting, semi-arid

Abstract
This article is a review and cross-discipline synthesis with proposals for action to help
prevent global famine 2020-2040, partly through limiting global warming to ½C by 2050.
Given political realities, emissions reductions alone will limit not global warming to 2C by
2100, according to 9 out of 10 senior climate scientists. However, a combination of
emissions reductions and four natural albedo / heat transport approaches CAN limit global
warming to 2C by 2100 and to WELL below 1C by 2050.
The four approaches are (i) land-atmosphere interactions, including wetland conservation,
rainwater harvesting and permaculture, (ii) lighter (broadleaf) forests and crops, (iii) pale
roads/cool roofs and (iv) sea stratus amplification with saltwater. Geoff without this last one
(or something more effective but really horrible) we fry
This article will examine the potential of land-atmosphere interactions in greatest detail,
with specific attention to rainwater harvesting, which is already being promoted by the
IPCC and UNEP for adaptation and resilience.
To prevent dangerous warming, a Copenhagen Consensus is urgently needed, along with
a four continents research and implementation alliance, composed of existing institutions.
Green water credits (SEI) provide a funding option. WWF's LOAM approach offers a
participatory planning framework which can be applied on the landscape and decade
scales. UNEP has the respect and credibility to coordinate. LARI is a nascent network of
academics aiming to support implementation with targeted research.
Introduction - prevention of global famine
Paul Chefurka projects 100 million "excess" (famine etc) deaths annually from 2015-2050
with simplified petroleum price scenarios1. Many of the deaths will "appear" to be due to
conflict / failed states etc, but the underlying stressors will be poverty and shortage of food
and water.

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), predicts that global warming will be
responsible for a 16% decrease in agricultural gross domestic product globally by 2020. 2
Lobell et al3 predict that maize yields in Southern Africa will fall by 30% by 2030. Even the
summer heatwave of 2003 decreased European crop yields by 20-25%. With rising
populations and increased demands from China and India, the World Bank estimates that
global demand for food will rise by 50 per cent by 2030. John Beddington, Britain’s chief
scientist, warns of a “perfect storm” of food, water and energy shortages by 2030.4 REF>>

The IPCC warns that more than a billion people may face freshwater shortages by 2050.
On Tuesday 14th April, 2009, a UK newspaper5 published a poll of climate scientists who
attended the IPCC conference in Bonn :

"Almost nine out of 10 climate scientists do not believe political efforts to

restrict global warming to 2C will succeed ........ An average rise of 4-5C
by the end of this century is more likely, they say, given soaring carbon
emissions and political constraints."

IPCC projections have tended to focus on the year 2100, but global population is likely to
peak during 2040-2050, and there may be severe problems with global food supply as
early as 2025. (Many would say we have severe and worsening problems for low income
people already.) In southern Africa poverty and death rates are increasing and there are
already harvest problems because of reduced / variable rainfall. Focusing public and
political attention on food security and a 10-40 year time scale is more relevant for millions
/ billions in developing countries than a 100 year time scale and sea level rise. We can all
agree that enough to eat for everyone is important. There are also benefits for humanity's
prospects on the 100 year time scale using this approach. If we aren't addressing food
security and climate change successfully through 2020-2050, we are unlikely to live
through 2050-2100 famine free. Many of the global cooling approaches proposed in this
paper are also beneficial for food security and resilience.

The 100 year time scale has also been unfortunate in that gains from emissions reductions
in the Kyoto and UNFCCC processes have been worked out on the basis of 1 hundredth of
100 year cooling gains. Because methane, and refrigerants like HFC-134a (for AC in cars)
and HFC23 have short half lives (8 years and 20 years respectively) they score poorly over
a century. But precisely because their half lives are so short, their rapid phase down could
help to limit warming in the first half of this century much more effectively than CO2
reductions alone. They are "low hanging fruit". UK beef and dairy consumers please note.

The reluctance to address the real prospect of global famine, caused mainly by resource
depletion, has been around for some time. More than five years ago, David Pimentel of
Cornell University pointed out:

"Based on past experience, we expect that leaders will continue to

 postpone decisions on the human carrying capacity of the world until
the situation becomes intolerable or, worse, irreversible."

In a published paper6, he wrote,

"Unfortunately, most individuals and government leaders appear

unaware, unwilling, or unable to deal with the growing imbalances
between human population numbers and the energy and environmental
resources that support all life."

We can wring our hands at all this, or disagree and act at a political level with renewed
determination (and bravo to those who do), or accept it and say, "OK, so what then do we
do about it?" NGOs, meteorologists and oceanographers have rightly been wary of radical
geoengineering, but there are some less radical options, which could help attenuate global
warming, and also contribute to mitigation, adaptation and resilience. These are presented
below.

Two caveats:

1. This paper does not address economic justice, normal climate variability, soil
degradation, price rises in fertilizer caused by a steady decrease in phosphate production
globally since 19897, AIDS / TB / malaria - all factors which are at least as important in
food security, especially for low-income communities, as climate change.

2. The authors do not see these strategies as an alternative to greenhouse gas mitigation,
but a complement. It's no longer either or, but both and. The best hope is that cooling
strategies will "buy more time" for greenhouse gas mitigation to be achieved. A key aim
would be to prevent the Greenland ice sheet from melting.

Criteria for selecting "gentle and immediate" cooling options

The criteria used for selecting attenuation options are as follows:
1. will have a significant impact on global heat balance within 20-40 years
2. costs are on a scale affordable with existing budgets
3. fundable (eg by mechanisms such as green water credits, CDM etc)
4. possible to commence pilot implementation without a COP process
5. are reversible
6. have positive or neutral impact on food production and ecosystems
7. unlikely to arouse implacable opposition

The four approaches in our awareness which currently qualify are

Geoff without this first one (or something more effective but really horrible) we fry
Sea stratus amplification:
using salt water spray on ocean-going ships
 Pale roads / cool roofs:
increase reflectivity of roads, pavements and roofs

Lighter forests and crops:

notably replacing conifer plantations with broadleaf

Land-atmosphere interactions:
increase stratus and cumulo-nimbus cloud cover in semi-arid regions

SPECIFICALLY in regions identified by the GLACE experiment

THROUGH soil moisture interventions (SMIs) such as rainwater harvesting,

permaculture and reforestation

Table 1: approaches to global cooling and the means by which they cool

Cooling strategy Cooling impact

A. Sea stratus amplification Increased albedo (reflectivity)

B. Pale roads / cool roofs Increased albedo

Reduced emissions

C. Lighter forests (broadleaf) Increased albedo

Lighter crops Reduced emissions if permaculture

or organic strategies used

Increased albedo

D. Land-Atmosphere Heat transport (cumulo-nimbus)

(soil moisture and vegetation) Increased soil carbon

Reduced emissions

On the following pages I expand briefly on the first three of these strategies and at greater
length of my own area, land-atmosphere interactions.

Geoff without this first one (or something more effective but really horrible) we fry

A. Sea stratus amplification using salt water spray

This approach was originally proposed by Profs Stephen Salter and John Latham8. In brief,
it involves placing ships with rotors off the coast of North and South America and Africa,
throwing up sea water spray to augment the reflectivity of existing, natural stratus clouds in
order to have a cooling impact. Lenton and Vaughan, in their quantitative assessment of
geoengineering options9, state, "Increasing marine stratiform cloud albedo might achieve
-3W/m2 of globally averaged radiative forcing" though they caution that the effects are
necessarily regional and patchy. (Their target for complete global warming attenuation is
4W/m2.)

Quoting John Latham10:

"Since CO2 levels seem certain to rise for a long time, we think it vital to examine
geo-engineering schemes for stabilizing Earth's temperature for long enough to
allow alternative, clean forms of energy to be developed. We are examining one
scheme in collaborative research involving Universities of Manchester, Leeds,
"Edinburgh and (in USA) National Centre for Atmospheric Research, and Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory: lead scientists at these institutions, Tom Choularton,
Alan Gadian, Stephen Salter, John Latham, Phil Rasch, respectively.
"Our idea is to increase the reflectivity of shallow oceanic clouds by seeding them
with seawater particles to increase their droplet numbers: thereby producing global
cooling. Provisional results (mainly modelling) suggest the technique could hold
Earth's temperature constant for around 50 years, and that current values of Arctic
ice cover could be maintained over this period. Much more work is required on
technological questions and ramifications of possible deployment."

B. Pale roads - cool roofs

Increasing the reflectivity of roads and roofs could not only increase planetary albedo a
little3 but also reduce the demand for energy for air-conditioning. Furthermore, by reducing
the urban heat island effect, this strategy would make cities that get really hot much more
pleasant to live in during hot seasons 11, 12. Costs are low as the paler materials can be
used whenever roads are re-surfaced or new roofs constructed. Various cool cities
initiatives are being proposed, eg by Dr Michal Kravcik from the NGO People and Water.

Quoting Dr Robert Hamway13:

"To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors,
and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests. Here, the potential to
complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by
the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is
explored. ...... such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset
the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic
 greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 0.76 W/m2 Terrestrial albedo amplification
may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development
and use of low emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain
essential to mitigate long-term climate change."

C. Lighter forests and crops

Lenton and Vaughan3 find that increasing the albedo of all grasslands and croplands
together could achieve -1W/m2 in top of atmosphere radiative forcing. While this seems
significant it may turn out to be unrealistic to lighten more than a small percentage of the
world's grasslands and croplands. Nevertheless, in North America where it is relatively
easy to introduce new crop varieties in large areas of farmland, this approach could be
adopted on a temporary basis. The most interesting options would appear to be alternative
varieties of soya in latitudes greater than 30N or 30S14, and replacing of conifer plantations
with broadleaf trees15.

D. Land-atmosphere Interactions
The idea of using extensive rainwater harvesting as a global waring attenuation strategy
was first proposed by the hydrologist Michal Kravcik among other theories in innovative
writings on water16. A literature review collating the science of land-atmosphere
interactions to assess the feasibility of the rainwater harvesting attenuation idea was first
undertaken by Ray Taylor17.

Figure 1: land-atmosphere coupling for northern hemisphere summer

In GLACE, the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment, 12 teams were coordinated

by Randy Koster at NASA and showed that an increase in soil moisture in semi-arid
regions leads to an increase in precipitation, in the regions indicated on the map above 18.
This is for the Northern Hemisphere summer. Model runs have also shown an increase in
cloudiness. (Dr Sietse Los, personal correspondence.)

The model results were confirmed in separate Earth Observation studies by Dr Sietse Los
and Dr Tim Jupp (personal correspondence). The EO data correspond very well with the
model results above, and show up additional regions of strong coupling in southern Africa,
southern Brazil, Madagascar, SE Asia and Australia.

Prof Roger Pielke snr has reviewed19 a swathe of articles examining land use change and
land-atmosphere interactions. His work in this field is extensive, and a search using Scirus
or Google Scholar and his name with the term "land use" will throw up many relevant
papers. Irrigation in central USA and deforestation/draining of wetlands in Florida have had
profound effects on temperature and rainfall20.

We propose that the results of the GLACE study and subsequent work on land-
atmosphere interactions be used to identify those parts of the planet where rainwater
harvesting and other SMIs (soil moisture interventions) are likely to lead to more formation
of stratus and cumulo-nimbus. Pilot studies need to be undertaken comparing existing
forested/vegetated zones with similar unforested zones, looking at the cloud cover and
rainfall during and after the normal rainy season months.

For the purpose of increasing the duration of the rainy season through land-atmosphere
interactions, almost any intervention that increases soil moisture (SMIs) or vegetation is
potentially useful. There follow a list of interventions which can support soil moisture
increase and vegetation increase:

Soil moisture interventions (SMIs):

● Rainwater harvesting

● Permaculture

● Wetland and peatland conservation and restoration

● Conservation agriculture

● Desert reclamation

● Conventional irrigation

● Agro-forestry

More on rainwater harvesting

Rainwater harvesting is a family of ancient and modern techniques for catching and
holding rainwater, usually in the soil or aquifers.
Included are:
floodwater diversion
large catchment rainwater harvesting
small catchment rainwater harvesting
mulching
demi-lunes, earth pits etc
micro-dams
sand dams and sub-surface dams

An excellent review of various methodologies in different continents and centuries was

undertaken by Dieter Prinz21. UNEP and the IPCC have been promoting rainwater
harvesting.

As well as having a possible role in the attenuation of warming, rainwater harvesting is

helpful for adaptation, resilience, mitigation (more plants = more carbon in the soil) and
flood prevention or mitigation. Likewise permaculture.

Permaculture
Permaculture is a system of perennial agriculture which minimizes external inputs. A large
literature is available online. For a beautiful example of permaculture combined with
rainwater harvesting in Jordan, see "Behind Greening the Desert" on YouTube. It is hard to
be too positive about the human, environmental, ecological, social and economic
importance of Permaculture.

Impact on local livelihoods

All of the interventions proposed under land-atmosphere interactions are already being
implemented for economic or conservation reasons. The most successful and sustained
conservation projects also ensure that local livelihoods are protected or enhanced. I
outline below livelihood impact of each intervention:

Rainwater harvesting economics

Research and development on the economic and social/cultural viability of
increased rainwater harvesting and conservation agriculture is ongoing, notably in
Africa. There is a large and growing literature in Brazil, mostly in Portuguese.
In his excellent review of rainwater harvesting technology22, Dieter Prinz places
water harvesting in between rainfed and irrigated agriculture in both cost and yield.
He sees the biggest potential in medium-size catchment water harvesting (eg 'liman
terraces' and 'hillside conduit systems') in pre-desert areas where desertification
has created large denuded surfaces with high run-off.
Vallerani's work23 on rainwater harvesting using dolphin ploughs in China and
 elsewhere indicates considerable potential. Yuan et al show the economic viability
of water harvesting in semi-arid China24.
Machiwal et al25 have found water harvesting economic even among lower income
groups in Rajasthan and a lovely article26 by Agarwal and Narain describes how
community led management of water harvesting ensures prosperity for whole
villages. In two publications27 they demonstrate how water harvesting (along with
participatory and Gandhian approaches) plays a key role in ecological restoration
and a return to economic prosperity in multiple parts of India.

Wetland conservation economics

Wetland International have done brilliant work on livelihood benefits of wetland
conservation and restoration, which can be found here:
http://www.wetlands.org/Whatwedo/Wetlandsandlivelihoods/tabid/175/Default.aspx

Permaculture economics
With the depletion of global phosphate reserves (peak production was in 1989 and
most high quality sources in Pacific islands are now gone), fertiliser prices are set to
rise inexorably. Permaculture and organic farming, which conserve existing soil
phosphate, are thus set to become increasingly important in countries without large
reserves of rock phosphate (USA, China, Brazil, Morocco/Western Sahara).
The FAO28 has reviewed the case for organic farming's financial and sustainable
role in food security on several continents.
Food & Trees for Africa (www.trees.co.za) is a medium-sized NGO based in
Zambia. Over the past 15 years, FTFA has implemented more than 1000
permaculture food gardens in impoverished communities. FTFA screens community
groups and the beneficiaries selected are those with high levels of mobilization,
organisation and accountability. One of its projects29 is financed by the South
African Social Investment Exchange (SASIX) which provides independent research,
evaluation and monitoring to ensure that projects meet a set of criteria, including the
ability to deliver measurable returns.

Agroforestry economics
This has been extensively researched and promoted by the FAO and ICRAF,
among others. A search using the term livelihoods at this website throws up masses
of results: www.worldagroforestry.org/af/publications

Sea stratus amplification economics

Salter and Latham have calculated that 40 solar-powered yachts with Flexner rotors
would be needed to have sufficient impact on global albedo to slow or stop global
warming. This is within the budget of a single industrialised economy.

Green water credits

Green water credits are a simple form of payment for ecosystem services, piloted by the
Stockholm Environment Institute in Kenya. In a nutshell, downstream municipalities and
corporations in flood-prone areas pay into a fund which pays out to upstream communities
and farmers for re-greening the watershed, so that it can soak up more water during heavy
rains. Payment is made according to the density of vegetation of all types during rainy
seasons. More information is easily found by Googling < SEI "green water credits" > .

The LOAM approach to large scale landscape change

WWF30 and IUCN have piloted an approach to landscape planning and monitoring /
evaluation in Cameroon that operates on a scale larger and longer than most projects ie.
on the scale of a region and on a timescale of at least 2 decades. The approach brings
together key stakeholders and begins a process of envisioning desirable landscape
outcomes. For each asset group (human, ecological economic etc), indicators are carefully
chosen. The aim is for landscape change to become a conscious process, rather than the
result of uncoordinated decision-making. The approach is being piloted in Cameroon.

Feasibility of land-atmosphere cooling on four continents

A huge advantage of land-atmosphere cooling compared to radical geoengineering or the
Kyoto/Copenhagen process is that individual nation states of all income levels can go
ahead immediately for entirely selfish reasons: no multi-lateral negotiation process is
required. In many cases, adaptation or mitigation funding and/or simple national or
bilateral funding is available for (eg) rainwater harvesting and reforestation.

Joining up existing and reinforcing, fragmented efforts

All of the interventions proposed except sea stratus are already being implemented for
local reasons, notably rainwater harvesting in Brazil and India. Conventional irrigation and
forestry are also widespread, the latter sometimes gaining carbon credits. What is
proposed here is that these efforts are focussed and concentrated in areas identified by
GLACE/Jupp/Los on a landscape scale, using the LOAM approach and additional funding
where necessary. Increased / decreased cloudiness and reduced air temperature has
already been observed in studies reviewed by Roger Pielke, notably with irrigation in the
USA. While one motivation may be to augment rainfall, a more powerful short term driver
may be the ability to use a combination of rainwater harvesting, reforestation, wetland
conservation and green water credits as an effective flood reduction and attenuation
strategy.

Existing large-scale regreening

In Niger, at the time the poorest country in the world, more than 5 million hectares were
partially reforested by small-scale farmers between 1975 and 2005 with limited initial
funding from the World Food Program. Niger now has a presidential programme headed
by a hard working mostly female team to reclaim degraded land using pioneer tree
species. External funding would be very welcome.
Brazil has rich competence in rainwater harvesting, and much implementation is proposed
or underway in the northern and southern semi-arid zones of Brazil.

Real world example: North and South Korea compared

A real world case/control study has been conducted by North and South Korea. In the
second world war, much of the upland forests of Korea were cut down. In North Korea this
has continued and North Korea suffers devastating floods. In South Korea, the former
military government initiated a massive reforestation programme. Floods in South Korea
have been less frequent and less severe than in the north. Hydrologists in South Korea
have been surprised at the massive decrease in run-off, which their models do not fully
explain (personal correspondence). A study of cloudiness and rainfall over the same
period, comparing reforested and un-reforested zones is a priority for the Land-
Atmosphere Resilience Initiative.

Little hope for Florida

Sadly in some cases landscape transformation has proceeded so far that reversal or
imitation of the pre-existing state is hugely challenging, though not impossible. In an
excellent study by Roger Pielke using data from Marshall et al, Pielke demonstrates how
the conversion of Florida's evergreen forest to farmland has led to reduced convective
rainfall which can not be attributed to global climate change. Much of this farmland has
now been converted to suburban residential land use. While we might imagine a
movement to re-evergreen Florida, starting with gardens, farms and highways and led by
local people, supported by state and federal funders, the charismatic leadership that would
be needed to lead this is not currently visible. Operation Noah (a Christan climate change
initiative) is perhaps the only bright hope here.

Financial viability of land-atmosphere cooling implementation and

research
I hope from the foregoing it is clear that finance is a relatively minor obstacle for the
implementation of land-atmosphere implementation. Research capacity is also available in
most of the regions concerned, and existing research efforts need only to be slightly re-
aimed to provide

● data that supports the accurate choosing of interventions most likely to increase
cloud cover and rainfall

● baselines and monitoring of implementation

Naturally we would appreciate some funding for exchange of experience between teams
on different continents, and to support existing research teams, NGOs and governments
with LOAM and other aspects of research, training and implementation, particularly
rainwater harvesting technology and community participatory learning and action.

UNEP and a Copenhagen Consensus

Given that the developed nations probably will not make sufficiently large emissions
reductions to prevent 2C of warming, and that Yves de Boers of the UNFCCC is doubtful
that there will be a complete treaty in Copenhagen, what is a possible plan of action?

The Independent Newspaper asked 44 leading scientists whether they thought some form
of geoengineering is now necessary31. Their responses are well worth reading (see
endnotes for weblink) and there is a clear consensus that something "extra" is going to be
needed.

Here is a set of proposals that could genuinely help to limit warming to 2C, and have
helpful impacts within 20 years:

1. Act immediately on short-lived greenhouse forcings such as the car air-conditioning

refrigerant HFC-134a and the longer lived HFC-23. China and other developing countries
will need technology transfer and financing. Coordinate with the Montreal Protocol. Also
prioritize methane emission reduction from leakage, waste and farming. If clathrates are
used as a new source of fossil fuels, ensure that carbon capture and safe storage is
mandatory.

2. Act on other low-hanging carbon fruit: eg peatland and tropical forest protection. Any
agreement on REDD should include peatlands and wetlands. A separate financing
mechanism should be worked out for semi-arid nations and agriculture.

3. Request IPCC to re-visit land-atmosphere interactions and cloud forcings/feedbacks,

now that the science has moved on considerably.

4. Create a network of land-atmosphere meteorologists and hydrologists and social

scientists to look at the potential of a range of soil moisture interventions that can
contribute to (a) resilience, (b) adaptation (c) attenuation of warming (d) mitigation of
emissions. Focus to be on guiding interventions by national governments, NGOs and
private enterprises for impacts that will be helpful on a 20 year timescale. Call it LARI*
(Land-Atmosphere Resilience Initiative).

5. LARI to undertake pilot research projects on the land-atmosphere potential of forested

landscapes in Senegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, South Korea, Australia, USA etc.

6. Rapidly research, assess and deploy the cooling strategies outlined in this article,
especially wetland conservation, reforestation and sea stratus amplification. Increase
research on less radical geoengineering strategies such as air capture of CO2 and direct
methods of preventing Greenland and Siberian ice melt.

7. Under the able leadership of Achim Steiner, UNEP has both competence and "clear
hands". His leadership in coordinating action on these "low-hanging fruit" would be very
appropriate. The Stockholm Environment Institute, with their strong involvement in
developing countries including Kenya and China, also have a lot to offer.

* A scoping meeting for LARI was held at Leeds University, UK on

January 28th, 2009. Among those present were Professor Alan Gadian
and Professor Doug Parker. Interest in long-term involvement has been
expressed by Professor Joon Kim from Asia Flux-net. In Senegal
Professor A. T. Gaye is looking at a potential pilot and at AGHRYMET in
Niger a team led by Dr Issofou Alfari is ready to undertake a pilot study
using existing datasets.

Ultimately LARI needs to be operating efficiently on four continents,

supporting implementation in eight regions identified by the GLACE
experiment:
 West Africa and Southern Africa
semi-arid North America
semi-arid Brazil
South Asia
East and South-East Asia
Australia

To be involved in helping this happen, contact:

Ray Taylor +44 845 058 0537 ray [at] theGlobalCoolingProject.com
MANUAL ORDERING OF FIRST 8 REFERENCES NEEDS TO BE RE-
DONE
1. David Pimentel et al: Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human
Numbers? Environment, Development and Sustainability Volume 1, Number 1
/ March, 1999 http://ron-griffin.tamu.edu/ag/others/pimentelEtal.pdf

2. www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c

3. Cline,W. R. 2007. Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by

country FAO reports / Washington,D.C.: Center for Global Development and
Peterson Institute for International Economics. Quoted in Joachim von Braun,
The world food situation http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf

4. David B. Lobell et al: Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for

Food Security in 2030 Science 1 February 2008: Vol. 319. no. 5863, pp. 607
- 610

5. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7951838.stm

6. http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html

7. Fertiliser prices in India: http://www.navdanya.org/articles/acquaculture.htm

8. Latham J, Rasch P, Chen CC, Kettles L, Gadian A, Gettelman A, Morrison

H, Bower K and Choularton T: Global temperature stabilization via controlled
albedo enhancement of low-level maritime clouds Philos Transact A Math
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9. T. M. Lenton and N. E. Vaughan: Radiative forcing potential of climate

geoengineering Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 9, 2559–2608, 2009
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/2559/2009/

10. www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-do-to-
save-our-planet-1221097.htm

11. Vasishth, Ashwani. 2006. Getting Humans Back Into Nature: A Scale-
Hierarchic Ecosystem Approach To Integrative Ecological Planning. PhD
Dissertation, University of Suthern Calfornia, Los Angeles

12. Akbari, H, Pomerantz, M, Taha, H: Cool surfaces and shade trees to

reduce energy use and improve air quality in urban areas Solar Energy Vol.
70, no. 3, pp. 295-310. 2001. Quoted in:
www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/16/white-paint-carbon-emissions-
climate

13. Robert M Hamway: Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to

Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study
http://www.nfp54.ch/files/nxt_projects_82/06_10_2006_01_57_12-Hamwey.pdf
http://www.springerlink.com/content/fm0vh12142151014

14. CE Doughty, A McMillan, M Goulden Climate management through

agricultural albedo manipulation Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl.,
Abstract GC52A-10

15. McMillan, A. M.; Doughty, C. E.; Goulden, M.L. Land surface albedo in
forestry management and land use change - possible offsets or augmentation
to the radiative impact of carbon sequestration. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet.
Suppl., Abstract GC52A-10 GC52A-11

16. http://www.ludiaavoda.sk/en/?page_id=12

17. http://www.theglobalcoolingproject.com/media/GC_Science_dossier7.pdf

18. Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation,

Randal D. Koster, Peter Cox, Christopher M. Taylor et al (20 August 2004)
Science 305 (5687), 1138.

19. Roger Pielke Snr: Land use / Convection / Regional Climate

http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/CB-29.pdf.

20. Roger A. Pielke Sr A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in
the climate system and in climate change. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology 142 (2007) 234–254

21. Dieter Prinz Water Harvesting: Past and Future

http://digbib.ubka.uni-karlsruhe.de/eva/1996/bau-verm/10&format=0

22.. http://plantstress.com/Articles/drought_m/runoff_farming.pdf

23. Pp 8 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah836e/ah836e00.pdf
Afforestation and Sustainable Forests as a Means to Combat Desertification
and also in ......

Book: The Future of Drylands

Chapter Title - Degraded Arid Land Restoration for Afforestation and Agro-Silvo-Pastoral
Production through New Water Harvesting Mechanized Technology
Author - Michel Malagnoux DOI - 10.1007/978-1-4020-6970-3_30
Link - http://www.springerlink.com/content/p22413r257105873

24. Yuan T., Fengmin L., Puhai L. Economic analysis of rainwater harvesting
and irrigation methods, with an example from China (2003) Agricultural Water
Management, 60(3),pp.217-226.

25. Deepesh Machiwal et al; Planning and Design of Cost-effective Water

Harvesting Structures for Efficient Utilization of Scarce Water Resources in
Semi-arid Regions of Rajasthan, India in Water Resources Management,
2004-06-01, DOI - 10.1023/B:WARM.0000043152.86425.7b
Link - http://www.springerlink.com/content/q36519600w370h52

26. Agarwal and Narain: Water harvesting: community-led natural resource

management, ILEIA newsletter March 2000

27. Institutionalizing common pool resources edited by By Dinesh K. Marothia

http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_1-
50/WP36.pdf.

28. http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e05.htm

29. http://www.sasix.co.za/projects/view/FS-NW-MAY-0063

30..http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/how_we_work/conservation/forests/pu
blications/?120980/Landscape-Outcome-Assessment-Methodology-LOAM-in-
Practice

31..http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-
do-to-save-our-planet-1221097.html

Global Cooling en français:

Des options applicables immédiatement, permettant un refroidissement de basse intensité
afin d’empêcher un réchauffement de plus de 2°C.

Résumé
La réduction des émissions seule ne permet pas de limiter le réchauffement climatique de
2°C, selon la majorité des scientifiques qui ont participé à la conférence 2009 de l’IPCC à
Bonn et ont répondus au journal anglais «The Guardian». Néanmoins, une combinaison
de réduction des émissions et quatre approches portant sur l’albédo et les transferts de
chaleur peut limiter le réchauffement climatique à 2°C.

Ces quatre approches sont (1) les interactions entre le sol et l’atmosphère, y compris la
protection des zones humides, la récolte des eaux de pluie et la permaculture, (2) des
forêts et des cultures utilisant des plantes à feuilles larges, (3) des routes et des toits de
couleur claire et (4) l’amplification des strates océaniques par le biais d’eaux salées.

Cet article examinera le potentiel des interactions sol/atmosphère en détails, avec une
attention toute particulière à la récolte des eaux de pluie, qui est déjà mise en avant par
l’IPCC et l’UNEP pour permettre de meilleurs adaptations et résistances au réchauffement
climatique.

Afin d’empêcher un réchauffement climatique dangereux, un consensus est indispensable

à Copenhague, ainsi qu’une alliance permettant la recherche et l’implémentation sur
quatre continents, intégrant les institutions existantes. Les crédits pour l’eau (SEI) sont
une option de financement. L’approche « LOAM » du WWF est un cadre possible pouvant
être appliqué au domaine des domaines naturels et des projets de très longue durée
(plusieurs décades). Enfin, l’UNEP est une institution suffisamment respectée et crédible
pour coordonner le tout.
(Action points)

Voici quelques propositions qui peuvent réellement permettre de limiter le réchauffement

climatique à 2°C et avoir des impacts positifs dans les 20 prochaines années.

1) Agir immédiatement sur les gaz à effet de serre à courte durée de vie, comme le
réfrigérant HFC23. La Chine aura besoin de transferts de technologie et de financement,
afin de remplacer les sites de production de HFC22/23 qu’elle a du construire pour
remplacer sa production de CFC, ainsi que le Brésil et l’Afrique du Sud. Une coordination
doit être établie dans ce sens avec l’organisation du protocole de Montréal. Également
prioritaire : la réduction des émissions de méthane provenant des fuites, des déchets et
des activités agricoles. Si les clathrates sont utilisés comme nouvelles sources de
carburant fossile, il est indispensable que la capture du CO2 et son stockage sécurisé
soient obligatoires.

2) Agir sur les possibilités les plus simples en ce qui concerne le carbone: la protection
des zones marécageuses et des forêts tropicales. REDD+ doit comprendre ces zones. Un
accord séparé doit être élaboré pour les zones semi-arides et pour l’agriculture, plutôt que
de complexifier REDD+.

3) Demander à l’IPCC de revoir les interactions sols-atmosphère ainsi que la génération et

le feedback des nuages, compte tenu des derniers progrès scientifiques.

4) Créer un réseau de météorologistes, spécialisés dans l’étude des interactions

sol/atmosphère, ayant la possibilité d’étudier les interventions sur l’humidité des sols
susceptibles de contribuer (a) à la résistance, (b) à l’adaptation, (c) à l’atténuation du
réchauffement et (d) à la limitation des émissions. L’objectif étant de guider au mieux les
interventions des gouvernements nationaux, des ONG et des entreprises privées, pour
des résultats portant sur une vingtaine d’années. Appelons cette initiative LARI (Land-
Atmosphere Resilience Initiative)

5) Lancer des projets de recherche pilotes sur les potentiels des forêts au Sénégal, au
Niger, au Burkina Faso, en Corée du Sud, en Australie, aux Etats-Unis, etc…

6) Rechercher, évaluer et déployer rapidement les stratégies de refroidissement détaillées

dans cet article, tout spécialement la reforestation et l’amplification des strates
océaniques. Augmenter la recherche sur les méthodes moins radicales de géo-ingénierie
comme la capture du CO2 présents dans l’air et les méthodes directes permettant de
limiter la fonte des glaces au Groenland et en Sibérie.

7) Sous la direction d’Achim Steiner, l’UNEP est l’organisation qui possède les meilleures
compétences et la meilleure réputation. Il serait donc tout à fait approprié qu’il coordonne
l’action sur ces objectifs simples. Le «Stockholm Environment Institute», depuis longtemps
impliqué dans les pays en voie de développement comme le Kenya et la Chine, a
également beaucoup à proposer.

Pour participer à ce projet, contactez: ray [at] theGlobalCoolingProject.com

1 http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html

2 Cline,W. R. 2007. Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country FAO
reports / Washington,D.C.: Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for
International Economics. Quoted in Joachim von Braun, The world food situation
http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf

3 David B. Lobell et al: Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in
2030 Science 1 February 2008: Vol. 319. no. 5863, pp. 607 - 610

4 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7951838.stm

5 www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c

1 David Pimentel et al: Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?
Environment, Development and Sustainability Volume 1, Number 1 / March, 1999
http://ron-griffin.tamu.edu/ag/others/pimentelEtal.pdf
7 Fertiliser prices in India:
http://www.navdanya.org/articles/acquaculture.htm

8 Latham J, Rasch P, Chen CC, Kettles L, Gadian A, Gettelman A, Morrison H, Bower K

and Choularton T: Global temperature stabilization via controlled albedo enhancement of
low-level maritime clouds Philos Transact A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2008 Nov
13;366(1882):3969-87

9 T. M. Lenton and N. E. Vaughan: Radiative forcing potential of climate geoengineering

Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 9, 2559–2608, 2009 www.atmos-chem-phys-
discuss.net/9/2559/2009/

10www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-do-to-save-our-
planet-1221097.htm

11 Vasishth, Ashwani. 2006. Getting Humans Back Into Nature: A Scale-Hierarchic

Ecosystem Approach To Integrative Ecological Planning. PhD Dissertation, University of
Suthern Calfornia, Los Angeles

12 Akbari, H, Pomerantz, M, Taha, H: Cool surfaces and shade trees to reduce energy use
and improve air quality in urban areas Solar Energy Vol. 70, no. 3, pp. 295-310. 2001.
Quoted in: www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/16/white-paint-carbon-emissions-
climate

13 Robert M Hamway: Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate

Change: An Exploratory Study
http://www.nfp54.ch/files/nxt_projects_82/06_10_2006_01_57_12-Hamwey.pdf
http://www.springerlink.com/content/fm0vh12142151014

14 CE Doughty, A McMillan, M Goulden Climate management through agricultural albedo

manipulation Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC52A-10
15 McMillan, A. M.; Doughty, C. E.; Goulden, M.L. Land surface albedo in forestry
management and land use change - possible offsets or augmentation to the radiative
impact of carbon sequestration. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC52A-10
GC52A-11

16 http://www.ludiaavoda.sk/en/?page_id=12

17 http://www.theglobalcoolingproject.com/media/GC_Science_dossier7.pdf

18 Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation, Randal D. Koster,
Peter Cox, Christopher M. Taylor et al (20 August 2004)
Science 305 (5687), 1138.

19 Roger Pielke Snr: Land use / Convection / Regional Climate

http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/pdf/CB-29.pdf.

20 Roger A. Pielke Sr A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate
system and in climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 234–254

21 Dieter Prinz Water Harvesting: Past and Future

http://digbib.ubka.uni-karlsruhe.de/eva/1996/bau-verm/10&format=0

22 http://plantstress.com/Articles/drought_m/runoff_farming.pdf

23 Pp 8 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah836e/ah836e00.pdf
Afforestation and Sustainable Forests as a Means to Combat Desertification
and also in ......

Book: The Future of Drylands

Chapter Title - Degraded Arid Land Restoration for Afforestation and Agro-Silvo-Pastoral
Production through New Water Harvesting Mechanized Technology
Author - Michel Malagnoux DOI - 10.1007/978-1-4020-6970-3_30
Link - http://www.springerlink.com/content/p22413r257105873

24 Yuan T., Fengmin L., Puhai L. Economic analysis of rainwater harvesting and irrigation
methods, with an example from China (2003) Agricultural Water Management,
60(3),pp.217-226.

25 Deepesh Machiwal et al; Planning and Design of Cost-effective Water Harvesting

Structures for Efficient Utilization of Scarce Water Resources in Semi-arid Regions of
Rajasthan, India in Water Resources Management, 2004-06-01
DOI - 10.1023/B:WARM.0000043152.86425.7b
Link - http://www.springerlink.com/content/q36519600w370h52

26 Agarwal and Narain: Water harvesting: community-led natural resource management

ILEIA newsletter March 2000

27 Institutionalizing common pool resources edited by By Dinesh K. Marothia

http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_1-50/WP36.pdf.

28 http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e05.htm
29 http://www.sasix.co.za/projects/view/FS-NW-MAY-0063

30 http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/how_we_work/conservation/forests/publications/?12
0980/Landscape-Outcome-Assessment-Methodology-LOAM-in-Practice

31..http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-do-to-save-
our-planet-1221097.html