Throughput Uncertainty analysis

in Los Pelambres deposit

Alejandro Cáceres and Rafael Cirión, Geoinnova Consultores
Felipe Ibarra and Felipe Contreras, Minera Los Pelambres
Xavier Emery, AMTC, Universidad de Chile
 Outline
• Introduction
• Main goals
• Available data
• Geological units in throughput and Axb
• Current estimation approach for Axb
• Current throughput model
• Throughput and Axb uncertainty by year and month
• Error estimation of Axb and Throughput
• Geological uncertainty and it’s impact on Throughput
• Conclusions
 Introduction
Throughput model

Mineral Economic appraisal

processing for mine projects

We need to understand the throughput on the deposit to know how much

ore per hour can be processed by the plant
 Main Goals
• Evaluate the actual estimation approach used for Axb

• Analyze the uncertainty in throughput and Axb given the

current information level in Los Pelambres

• Evaluate the potential estimation error given different amount

of geometallurgical samples
 Available Data
Plan view, Axb tests samples

• 1267, geometallurgical
Axb test samples

• 50 conditional simulations
of work index

• Mine plan on a yearly and

monthly basis
 Axb and throughput units
East: 59345 m

• LIX+PLIX
• 1:
Unit Unit
Secondary
1:secondary
in Leached
sulphides
+mineralization
Secondary
Unit 2sulphides
:(2
Hydrothermal
and 3)andSecondary
hydrothermal
brecciasmineralization
Unit
breccias
3: Primary
without
without
(5, 55,anhydrite
555,anhydrite
45, 8)
• • Unit
Unit2: 4:
Secondary
Primary
Primary with
andanhydrite
Primary
mineralization with
Unit
(6, 66, anhydrite
666,7:46)
PQFAndesite
+Unit
barren
8: (7)
Andesite
andesites

Estimation units
Estimation units Wi Estimation units Axb
CuT
Statistics and variography axb by units

Unit 1 Unit 2

Variable Skewness Kurtosis Variable Skewness Kurtosis

AxB 0.69 1.08 AxB 0.69 0.63

Variograma Variograma
Correlograma Correlograma
 Estimate Axb or Axb-1?
Direct estimation Indirect estimation
• Interpolate Axb • Transform Axb in Axb-1

−1
100
𝑎𝑥𝑏 =
𝑎𝑥𝑏

• Interpolate Axb-1
• Backtransform Axb-1
estimated
 Current estimation and cross
validation of Axb
• Currently Axb on deposit is Means of estimations approach vs real data

spatially predicted using Axb-1

100
𝐴𝑥𝑏 −1 =
𝐴𝑥𝑏
• In order to evaluate the
prediction of the Axb Axb direct estimation Estimation of Axb-1 Axb real data
estimation a cross validation
Means AxB Error rel %
procedure was done for: Variable
UE: 1 UE: 2 UE: 1 UE: 2
AxB real data 45.53 34.38 - -
– Estimation of Axb-1 AxB direct estimation 45.69 34.38 0.35 0.00
– Direct estimation of Axb -1
AxB from AxB estimation 44.54 33.56 -2.52 -2.39

A negative bias is observed for Axb-1

 axb-1 estimation
“Swath plots”, direct estimationvs
vs
sample data, UE 1
“Swath
“Swathplots”,
plots”,direct estimationvsvs
axb estimation
sample data, UE 1
Current Throughput model
components

Estimation Axb and Wi

Units for
AxB

Plant
Design
parameters

Throughput
 Throughput matrix by estimation unit
UE-1 Rdto_Planta UE-1
Wi_T AxB
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
6.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
7.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
8.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
9.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
10.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
11.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
12.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
13.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
14.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9056 9098 9133 9164 9191 9215 9237 9259 9280 9301 9322 9343 9364 9383 9401 9416 9427 9432 9431 9420 9399 9364 9313 9244 9153
15.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8545 8673 8780 8870 8944 9005 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043 9043
16.5 7478 7760 8005 8214 8393 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495 8495
17.5 7478 7760 8005 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010 8010
18.5 7478 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577
19.5 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188
20.5 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838
21.5 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520

Work index limit UE-2 Rdto_Planta UE-2

99 % of distribution of Wi and Axb on the deposit
Wi_T AxB
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
6.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
7.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
8.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
9.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
10.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
11.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
12.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
13.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
14.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
15.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
16.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
17.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7610 7666 7717 7763 7804 7840 7872 7899 7921 7940 7954 7965 7972 7976 7976
18.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7241 7327 7407 7480 7548 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577 7577
19.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6945 7050 7149 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188 7188
20.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6586 6713 6832 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838 6838
21.5 4880 5089 5289 5480 5663 5837 6003 6160 6310 6452 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520 6520
Throughput by Axb and UE

Maximum throughput: 8750

 Uncertainty assessment of throughput by
geostatistical simulations of geological units
Geological unit’s realizations workflow

1
Realization 2 Realization 2
1
Geological estimation units vs
simulation
Deterministic
model

Realization 3
2
1
Geological estimation units vs
simulation
Geological
units
variance

uncertainty
zone
Indicator variance >= 0.1
Geological uncertainty zone
proportion on monthly basis

High variability due to misclassification of geological units

Troughput variation due to geological
uncertainty on monthly basis

Variation of 3 % on throughput
 Uncertainty assessment of throughput by
geostatistical simulations of Axb and Wi
•  Reflects variability (Variogram)
•  Respects data location (Conditioning)
•  Reproduce variables distribution (Histogram)
•  Allows to evaluate the uncertainty
3 realizations examples

Axb 1 Axb 2 Axb 3

Wi 1 Wi 2 Wi 3
Conditional simulations validations,
statistics and variography

Means of Axb
Horizontal

Simulations
Estimation
Samples

Units (UE)
Vertical
Conditional simulations validations,
texture and data conditioning
Estimation Realizations
 Throughput simulated model
Estimation units Wi Simulation 1 Axb simulation 1

Tph result simulation 1

Uncertainty by year
Expected uncertainty on yearly and
monthly basis by UE
Yearly uncertainty by UE Monthly uncertainty by UE

Estimation I90 % Estimation I90 %

Unidad
unit Axb TPH unit AxB TPH
UE-1 6.26 0.57 UE-1 8.01 0.79
UE-2 4.15 1.44 UE-2 5.81 2.08
 Estimation error assessment
• For each realization 5 different incremental information
schemes were used
Scheme Samples density
1 0.5 MT/s
2 1.0 MT/s
3 1.5 MT/s
4 2.0 MT/s
5 3.0 MT/s

• A estimation for each realization and each sample scheme is

performed
• Estimated models are compared against the reference
realizations
Axb, realization vs estimation by
sampling scheme
North
North
Scheme:
2.0
0.5
1.0
3.0
1.5 M/Tons

Realization Estimation
Estimation error
Estimation errorofofthroughput by
Axb by units
units
Yearly Monthly

Samples ErrorError
Throughput
Axb % % Samples ErrorError
Throughput
Axb % %
Scheme UE-1 UE-2 Scheme UE-1 UE-2
3.0 MT/m 0.44
4.26 1.03
2.84 3.0 MT/m 0.687
7.65 1.794
4.91
2.0 MT/m 0.41
3.74 0.82
2.21 2.0 MT/m 0.665
6.86 1.607
4.46
1.5 MT/m 0.37
3.24 0.69
1.92 1.5 MT/m 0.593
6.12 1.476
4.14
1.0 MT/m 0.34
2.49 0.59
1.66 1.0 MT/m 0.504
4.87 1.203
3.38
0.5 MT/m 0.28
1.68 0.43
1.19 0.5 MT/m 0.417
3.60 0.877
2.47
 Summary and conclusions
• Axb values have direct proportional effect, high values are
more variable
• The Axb value can be spatially predicted with low estimation
errors using direct estimation, Axb-1 estimation approach
generates slight underestimation.

• Axb has higher impact on the throughput value than Wi.

• The transfer function used to calculate throughput in Los

Pelambres has an impact in the uncertainty results.
 Summary and conclusions
• The uncertainty is related to the proportion of the units,
when unit 2 increases the uncertainty also increases for
throughput.

• Geology plays an important role in the prediction of

throughput and Axb.