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Estructuras tØcnicas 21 (1999) 1101ç1114

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Diseæo de la fatiga basado en la fiabilidad de lÆminas del rotor de la

a, * c
Knut O. Ronold , Jakob Wedel-Heinen, Carl J. Christensen b
a
Det Norske Veritas, N-1322 Hłvik, Noruega Det
b
Norske Veritas, DK-2900 Hellerup, Dinamarca
c
Estacin de prueba para turbinas del viento, DK-4000 Roskilde, Dinamarca

Recibido el 21 de julio de 1997; recibido en forma revisada el 9 de marzo de 1998; aceptado el 11 de marzo de 1998

Extracto

Un modelo probabilistic para el anÆlisis de la seguridad de una lÆmina del rotor de la turbina del viento contra el fracaso de la fatiga
en la flexin de Èapwise es presentado. El modelo estÆ basado en el enfoque de gobierno de un Minero al daæo acumulativo y
capitaliza en una formulacin de la curva de SçN convencional para la resistencia de la fatiga junto con nuevo ÊWeibull deformadoÎ la
distribucin para la representacin de variedades del momento inducidas por el viento que se doblan. Las cuentas modelas para
variabilidad inherente e incertidumbre estadstica en carga y resistencia, e incertidumbres modelas tambiØn son incluidas. El modelo
es aplicado a un anÆlisis de la fiabilidad de una turbina del viento del sitio-speciÀc de un prescribido hacen. Una vida del diseæo de 20
aæos se considera. La probabilidad del fracaso de la fatiga en la flexin de Èapwise de la lÆmina del rotor es calculada por medio de un
mØtodo de fiabilidad de Àrst-pedido. Se demuestra cmo los resultados de anÆlisis de fiabilidad pueden SA ser
de usados parade
la ciencia calibrar
Elsevier de 1999 todo
factores
los de seguridad
derechos parciales para la carga y resistance para uso en diseæo de la fatiga determinista convencional.
reservados.

Palabras clave: turbinas del viento; lÆminas del rotor; Fatiga; fiabilidad estructural; calibracin del cdigo; factores de seguridad parciales

1. Introduccin dan el parison con otros modelos probados antes. La

distribucin a largo plazo de variedades del momento que
Las lÆminas del rotor de la turbina del viento expuestas se doblan es encontrada por la integracin sobre todos los
a la carga del viento son vulnerables al daæo de la fatiga climas del viento a corto plazo en un perodo contable
acumulativo debido a la naturaleza cclica de la carga. La como la vida del diseæo de una lÆmina del rotor. Esto
velocidad del viento que causa la flexin de las lÆminas lleva a una representacin probabilistic de la historia de la
del rotor expone una variabilidad natural, tal que las tensin que se dobla en la raz de la lÆmina, es decir, un
amplitudes de la carga se hacen arbitrarias, y lim - ited llamado espectro de la carga. Este modelo del espectro de
medidas de la carga implican que la carga interpretada la carga de probabilistic es combinado con una
dis-tributions es estorbada por la incertidumbre representacin de la curva de SçN estocÆstica de la
estadstica. AdemÆs, la curva de SçN que da el nœmero resistencia material en una funcin del estado de lmite
de ciclos de la tensin al fracaso y representa la basada en la formulacin de la suma de un Minero para el
resistencia del material de la lÆmina del rotor es daæo acumulativo. Con la turbina del viento del
estorbada por la incertidumbre debido a un nœmero sitio-speciÀc usada como un ejemplo, se demuestra
Este papel
limitado presenta unde
de especmenes nuevo
pruebamodelo paravariabilidad
as como la entonces cmo un mØtodo de fiabilidad estructural puede
representacin de la distribucin
de un espØcimen al otro. a corto plazo de ser aplicado como un medio racional de analizar una de
variedades del momento que se doblan que dependen del las lÆminas del rotor de la turbina del viento con respecto
clima del viento. El modelo estÆ basado en una a la fatiga en la flexin de Èapwise. El viento del
transformacin prÆctica de Weibull distri-convencional sitio-speciÀc tur-bine considerado aqu es una turbina de
bution. El modelo es calibrado para cargar las medidas de lated.
500 kWs con tres lÆminas del rotor de 19.5 m de largo. El
La
unaexactitud delviento
turbina del modelo es investigada,
del sitio-speciÀc deyununprescribido
com- Los factores de
acontecimiento de seguridad
fracaso deparciales
la fatiga son usados en
en Èapwise el
flexin
hacen. diseæo estructural como factores en valores
se considera, y la probabilidad del fracaso de la fatiga en
caractersticos de gobernar
una vida del diseæo cargaes
de 20 aæos y cantidades
calcu- de
* Autor correspondiente. resistencia para explicar variabilidades e incertidumbres
en estas cantidades. Basado en los resultados de
Los $ de 0141-0296/99/-ven pÆginasElsevier
preliminares
Science Ltd. de 1999. Reservados todos los derechos.
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1102 K.O. Ronold et al. / Estructuras TØcnicas 21 (1999) 1101ç1114

el anÆlisis de fiabilidad, el papel proporciona un ejemplo una estimacin de la distribucin a corto plazo de X estafa -
en cmo un juego de tales factores de seguridad parciales ditioned en (U,10I),T es deciru(U, X10I),T en forma de discretized.
puede ser estab-lished para el diseæo de lÆminas del rotor El nœmero de ciclos de la carga 10 enncada intervalo de 10 minutos
contra el fracaso de la fatiga. tambiØn es observado y depende de 10 Uy yo.TEspectÆculos de fig. 1
ejemplos de serie de tiempo de momentos que se doblan en la lÆmin
2. Teora para carga, resistencia, y acumulativo raz de una turbina del viento.
daæo Como la distribucin de X u(U,10 I)T es estorbado
con incertidumbre debido a datos limitados para su valoracin,
2.1. Clima del viento e historia de la carga para lÆmina del es rotor
deseable dar parÆmetros la distribucin y representante
- se ofenden por esta incertidumbre en anÆlisis de
El clima del viento que gobierna la carga de una fiabilidad como uncer-tainty en los parÆmetros de
turbina del viento y sus lÆminas del rotor es comœnmente Xu(U,10I)Tpuede
distribucin. ser dado parÆmetros
La distribucin de en tØrminos de su estadstico
10 minuto
descrito porsignifica la velocidad10del en viento
el sitioUen conjunc- momentos. Los Àrst tres momentos estadsticos son
los tion con 10 minuto significan la intensidad deT lala turbulencia usados I. para
El este fin. Estos momentos son el valor medio 1
desviacin
a, elcomo unaestÆndar
distribucin a largo plazo de la velocidad del viento media de 10 minutos puede ser tomado a,
2 y la oblicuidad a. Su
distribucin de Weibull 3
valores esperados E youn, 5 yo 1,2,3, puede ser estimado basado
en la versin discretized observada del condicional

FU10(u) 5 1 2 exp 2 SSDD u k

A
(1)
distribucin de X u(U,10I).T Esto es un procedimiento ordinario,
basado en integraciones numØricas del discretized distri-
bution.
Ningunas soluciones en forma de cerradas existen para su estÆnda
en que k y A son el sitio - y coef-dependiente de la altura ations D un, r,
yo yo5 1,2,3, y su matriz de correlacin
Àcients. La intensidad de la turbulencia I
T tambiØn es el sitio - peroy la informacin es escondida o inherente en los datos
dependiente de la altura. Es deÀned como la desviacin y as tiene que ser extrada por otros medios. La nueva
estÆndar de la velocidad del viento dividida en 10la prueba de tØcnicas como la navaja y el elÆstico de bota es
yvelocidad
representa el impetuoso
del viento media U del viento sobre esto tØcnicas estadsticas, que son œtiles para este fin [8]. La
significan. La intensidad deT la turbulencia se supone aqu tØcnica de la navaja es usada aqu. Esta tØcnica implica
suspendido
que sea inde-de U, pero podra ser en general modelado T
que el M de rØplicas de (a, a, a) es 1 establecido
2 3
el dependiente
como 10 en U, que sera el caso para un sitio 10 estimando el valor medio, la desviacin estÆndar y sesgan
con terreno no homogØneo. Informacin detallada sobre - ness para cada uno del M de las nuevas muestras de la
la distribucin de no estoy T disponible. El valor medio distribucin de esto puede ser hecho omitiendo uno del
puede ser tomado como
M de 10 minuto rec-ords de X y reteniendo 2 1 archivos.
el resto M

S D
De ah, la rØplica jth de (a, a, 1a) 2es 3conseguida para T
z -1 la distribucin probada de nuevo que no contiene el jth
T 5 callejn
E [YO] (2)
z0 Registro de 10 minutos.yoDeje (j)denote
a a la rØplica jth de
a,yoyo5 1,2,3, j 5 1, ñ M, y dejan (Ç)
yo denotan el promedio
donde z es la altura encima de la tierra, es decir la altura del M de rØplicas de a. La yo desviacin estÆndar de a yo
del cubo del rotor, y z es0 el parÆmetro de la brusquedad puede ser estimado entonces por
para terreno. La referencia es hecha a Dansk
el
Ingeniłrforening [2]. Un valor representativo del
! O
M
M21
5 0.25, y el tipo
coefÀcient de variacin es COV de distribucin puede ser asumido D unyo 5 (a 2 unYo ())2 (3)
M j 5 1 yo (j) yo
ser lognormal. El (U, I) el espacio T es discretized en unos
nœmero
10 de recipientes de valores aproximadamente constantes 10 de U
y yo. La anchura del recipiente es tomada como10 y como y el coefÀcient de correlacin entre a y a, yo kyo 5
0.02
2 m/sya paraque
T U yo.
T 1,2,3, k 5 1,2,3, puede ser estimado por
Una lÆmina del rotor se considera en el siguiente. Deje

O
M
X denotan la variedad del momento que se dobla en la M21
raz de la lÆmina en la flexin de Èapwise. De ah, X es la (a 2 unYo ()) (ak (j) 2 unk Yo
( ))
M j 5 1 yo (j) yo
doble amplitud del Èapwise respuesta del momento que ryo, 5k (4)
se dobla. Una variedad del momento de flexin tiene que D [un]
yo Dk un

los ciclos
ver con cada de ciclo
la carga
de lason identiÀed
carga, y por la lluvia - È ow
contando como descrito por Madsen et al. [10]. Las Se supone que los valores esperados y estÆndar
observaciones del momento que se dobla se extienden X desviaciones de1 a, 2a, y un3 condicionado en U10 y yo T
son registrados en 10 minuto inter - vals. Cada registro 10 y yo.de T son suficientemente representados por las superficies polinomias
Para un recipiente
10 minutos particular
de X es binned 10 T por (U,
U I) habrÆ un total del M
Archivos de 10 minutos de X. Estos M de archivos son usados E un yo 5 dar
para b0i 1 b1yoU10 1 b2yoU210 1 b3yoIT 1 b4yoI2T (5)

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K.O. Ronold et al. / Estructuras TØcnicas 21 (1999) 1101ç1114 1103

Fig. 1. La flexin de historias del momento en la raz de la lÆmina mostrada para tres 10 minuto tpico significa velocidades del viento.

D unyo 5 c0i 1 le1yover

10 1 le2yover
10 1 c3yoT
2
I 1 c4yoI2T (6) butions. La variedad del momento que se dobla es dos
veces tal amplitud de respuesta de la carga. Basado en el
en que el coefÀcientsb y c, jij ji5 0... 4, yo5 1,2,3, Àrst tres momentos
1 2 a, 3a, y un de la distribucin de la
son determinados por regresiones de menores-cuadrados de ditional - variedad del momento queu(U,
todo esti-
estafa se
10 I),
dobla
T esteXdistri-
valores medios apareados y desviaciones estÆndares 2 de a, el bution puede ser modelado como una extensin
un
a, ysobre
1 el (U,10I) Tespacio. cuadrÆtica de una variable Weibull-distribuida W paternal
3 Basado poniendo por caso que el teorema de lmite variable
U. El padre distribuida
Wei - por el toro U
es elegido tal que tiene W
central sostenga para las estimaciones de los tres1 2 lo mismo significa a y la misma desviacin estÆndar un 2
a, estos momentos
momentos a, a, y pueden ser la
quedistribucin
1 de X u(U,10I)T que debe ser modelado.
representados como 3 Para el caso que la oblicuidad de U W es mÆs pequeæo que el
ayo5 E unyo 1 UyoD un, yo yo5 1,2,3 (7) oblicuidad 3un deu(U, X 10I),T el modelo de extensin cuadrÆtico
es un modelo que se ablanda, y la extensin cuadrÆtica lee
en cual U 5 (U,1 U,2 U)3 T es un tridimensional, ni -
el mally distribuy la variable con el cero medio, desacuerdo deXla5unidad, 1 k(UW 1 eU)2W
xminuto (8)
y matriz de correlacin . r Note en este contexto que U yo
es la nota estÆndar para un estÆndar normalmente distribuido Para el caso que la oblicuidad de U es mayor que
W
la variable dentro del Àeld de la fiabilidad estructural y no la oblicuidad un u(U,10 I),T la extensin cuadrÆtica
3 de X
debe ser confundida con ninguna velocidad del viento. el modelo es un modelo que se endurece y el expan-cuadrÆtico
TambiØn note 5 que(U, T
U,2 U)3 U
el1 vector representa el estadstico el sion lee
incertidumbre en los tres momentos1 a,2 a, y un3 debido
a los datos limitados disponibles para su valoracin.
Encima, los momentos estadsticos a,2 a, y un de 1 e Wusted
1 1 para 21
3 X 5 xminuto 1k (9)
datos mesurados disponibles para la variedad del momento que se dobla 2e
X en la raz de la lÆmina en la flexin de Èapwise han
sido tratados con. Sin embargo, ninguna declaracin ha En ambos casos, el modelo se menciona como un cuadrÆtico
sido hasta ahora hecha con respecto a la distribucin del Modelo Weibull y el coefÀcients, ek, y x minutoson
momento que se dobla ampli-tudes ellos mismos, ninguno elegido tal que el valor medio a, devi-1 estÆndar
a corto plazo, condicional de 10 un T clima del viento ation a, y la oblicuidad unos 23 de la distribucin de
llame tal como sobre la vida
particular (U, I), ni en el largo del diseæo de la lÆmina del Xu (U,
rotor. A I)
10 T son todos conservados. Weibull cuadrÆtico
el modelo para la distribucin del momento que se dobla pueden pensar del modelo como una distribucin de
se extiende X es por lo tanto tratado con en el siguiente. Weibull generalizada o deformada. La referencia es
A menudo se ve que las amplitudes de respuesta de la hecha a Lange y Winterstein [9]. Fig. 2 muestra un
carga tienen estropean - ginal distribuciones, que estÆn ejemplo de una distribucin de la variedad del momento
cerca de Weibull distri- de flexin a corto plazo observada emprica,
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1104 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
Fig. 2. Example of observed empirical short-term bending moment range distribution and its corresponding quadratic Weibull distribution fit.
together with the quadratic Weibull distribution that has
been fitted to match its three first central moments.
Note that the quadratic Weibull distribution provides a
better fit to the data, and in particular a better represen-
tation of the important upper tail of the distribution, than
the distorted lognormal distribution used by Ronold et al.
[13] in a first approach to a parameterized represen-
tation of the load range distribution. The distorted log-
normal distribution, obtained by a logarithmic Hermite
polynomial expansion of a parent Gaussian distribution,
is known to have a heavy upper tail which, as com-
mented by Ronold et al. [13], leads to overprediction of
upper quantiles of the bending moment ranges and ther-
eby of the high-range stresses. Note also that the quad-
ratic Weibull model provides results very close to those
obtained by a cubic Weibull model which preserves the
first four statistical moments of the distribution of
Xu(U10,I ),
T including the kurtosis a 4, but which is compu-
tationally much more cumbersome and time-consuming
and therefore less attractive [14,15]. Fig. 3 shows a com-
parison between distribution fits made according to the
distorted lognormal distribution, the four-parameter cubic
Weibull distribution, and the new three-parameter
quadratic Weibull distribution. From this figure, it
appears that the two Weibull-based distributions provide
the best fits to the data, in particular in the upper tail,
which appears to be of most importance for the damage
accumulation. The accuracy of predictions made by
means of the quadratic Weibull models of Eqs. (8) and
(9) is further dealt with later.
The section modulus of the rotor blade at the blade
root is W, and the stress range S corresponding to the
moment range X is S 5 X/W. When a discretization of
the stress range space is introduced, then either Eq. (8)
or Eq. (9), depending on the value of the skewness a , 3
can be applied in conjunction with the distribution func-
tion of the parent Weibull variable U W to calculate the
probability content of each interval DS of this discretiz-
ation. The corresponding number of cycles within each
such interval in a 10-min period can be determined as
this probability content times the total number of cycles n
(U ,I ). 10 10 T
Integrating contributions from all possible 10-min
wind climate bins (U10,I T), weighted according to the
quoted Weibull distribution for U10 and the lognormal
distribution for I , this can be used to establish an T
ordered history of the stress range S over the design life
TLof the rotor blade. Here T isL taken as 20 years. This
compound lifetime distribution of the stress range S is
commonly referred to as the 20-year load spectrum and
can be expressed in terms of the number of stress cycles
n whose associated stress ranges exceed a level S during
the design life of the rotor blade. Reference is made to
Fig. 4 for an example. This, in turn, can be used to calcu-
late the number of stress cycles Dn within an interval
DS of the discretization of the stress range space.
10
The number of cycles n (U ,I 10 ) Tin a 10-min interval
is also encumbered with uncertainty. However, the coef-
ficient of variation is inversely proportional with the
square-root of the interval length, such that when n (U ,I )
is10scaled
10 Tto give the number of cycles over
a long time span such as a 20-year design life, the uncer-
tainty in this number becomes insignificant and can be
ignored. In the reliability analysis n 10(U ,I10) is
T therefore
left as a deterministic quantity only dependent on U10
and IT.
 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114 1105

Fig. 3. Comparison of distribution fits by three alternative parametric models.

Fig. 4. Example of compound stress range distribution over a design life.

1106 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
2.2. Fatigue strength and S–N curve
For a given stress range S, the number of cycles N to
failure is generally expressed through an S–N curve,
N 5 BS 2 k. However, in tests of composite materials for
e
use in rotor blades, the strain amplitude is usually mea-
sured rather than the stress range S. Hence, for such
materials the number of cycles N to failure is expressed
through an e–N curve. This curve can be expressed by
the following relation
log10 N 5 log10 K 2 m log10 e (10)
in which K and m are coefficients. This gives a linear
model for log 1N0
log10 Ni 5 log10 K 2 m log10 ei 1 ei , i 5 1,...n (11)
in which the pair (log K, m) describes the expected 10
behaviour and can be estimated by a linear regression
analysis based on n observed data pairs ( e,N
i ).
i The zero-
mean terms e denote residuals that represent local vari- i
ations from test specimen to test specimen, or ideally
from one point of the rotor blade to another. The stan-
dard deviation se of the residuals ei will result as a
byproduct of the regression analysis, and so will the
standard deviations and correlation coefficient of log K
10
and
m. The stress range S that corresponds to the strain
5 2Ee, where E denotes
amplitude can be expressed as S
the modulus of elasticity of the material in the direction
of the loading. The modulus of elasticity is idealized as a
constant here, but may in general vary with the magni-
tude of the strain. A refined representation with such a
variation included would be desirable. Further, the poss-
ible effect of a non-zero mean stress has been ignored,
mainly because of limitations in available test data. Scale
effects from test specimen to prototype and long-term
environmental degradation effects owing to exposure to
moisture and ultraviolet light have been left out of con-
sideration. Also the inclusion of such effects would be
desirable if data would permit.
2.3. Cumulative damage and failure criterion in
fatigue
According to Miner’s rule, fatigue failure in a struc- turalmin moment range records are merged, and the observed
material is defined to occur when the cumulative damage moment ranges X are sorted in increasing order. From
D exceeds 1.0, where D is defined as
O
k through a , are estimated. The standard deviations of 3
Dn(Si )
D5 (12)
i51
N(S i )
Here, Dn is the number of load cycles at stress range
S in the lifetime of the rotor blade as determined from
the load model, and N is the number of cycles to failure
at this stress range as determined from the S–N curve. The
sum is over all stress ranges S in a sufficiently
i fine
discretization of the stress range space.
3. Probabilistic and deterministic modelling
The reliability of a site-specific wind turbine against
fatigue failure of one of its rotor blades in flapwise bend-
ing is considered. The reliability is computed by a first-
order reliability method as described in Madsen et al.
[10]. The input to the reliability analysis consists of a
limit state function, specified in terms of a set of basic
variables, which consist of stochastic variables as well as
deterministic parameters. Furthermore, the statistical
distributions of the stochastic variables must be given,
and the values of the deterministic parameters must be
specified. The following sections describe the stochastic
variables, the deterministic parameters, and the limit state
function. Separate sections are devoted to make and site
of wind turbine, environmental loading, fatigue strength,
model uncertainty, and limit state function.
3.1. Wind turbine characteristics
A 500 kW wind turbine with 19.5 m long rotor blades is
considered. This is a wind turbine of the Danish tra-
ditional type with fixed rotational speed, fixed hub, and
stall control. The hub height is z 5 35 m, and the section
modulus of the rotor blade at the blade root in flapwise
bending is taken as W 5 0.0015 m3.
3.2. Environmental loading
The wind turbine is considered for a location whose
wind loading regime is characterized by a scale para-
meter A 5 9.1 m/s, a slope parameter k 5 1.9, and a
terrain roughness z0 5 0.05 m, the latter thus implying a
mean value of the turbulence intensity of E[I ] T5 0.153.
Reference is made to Eqs. (1) and (2).
A total of 1183 10-min records of flapwise bending
moment ranges X for various wind climate realizations (U
,I ),
10considered
T fixed within each 10-min interval,
are available. For each bin (U10,I T), the available M 10-
this, the cumulative distribution function of Xu(U10 ,IT )is
derived, and its first three moments, here denoted a 1
these three moments are obtained by jackknifing the M
10-min records. As stated in a previous section, the fol-
lowing model is chosen to represent the coefficients a 1
through a3
ai 5 E[ai ] 1 Ui D[ai ], i 5 1,2,3 (13)
 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114 1107

in which the mean value E[a ] and standard deviation i
D[a ] of the ith moment a iare represented as i
E[ai ] 5 b0i 1 b1iU10 1 b2iU210 1 b3iIT 1 b4iI2T
D[ai ] 5 c0i 1 c1iU10 1 c2iU210 1 c3iIT 1 c4iI2T
3.3. Resistance and stiffness of composite laminate
As stated in a previous section, the e–N curve that
(14) gives the number of stress cycles N to failure as a func-
tion of the strain amplitude e is given by the linear
(15) relationship

The polynomial coefficients in these expressions are
determined by a least-squares regression of the available
data and are presented in Table 1. The units are consist-
ent with bending moment ranges quoted in units of kNm.
The stochastic variables denoted U 5 (U1 ,U2 ,U3 T) rep-
resent the statistical uncertainties in the bending moment
range distributions and follow a three-dimensional nor-
mal distribution with mean values 0.0, standard devi-
ations 1.0, and a correlation matrix which is estimated to
be
log10 N 5 log10 K 2 m log10e 1 e (18)
for the rotor blade laminate.
A total of 81 observed pairs ( ,N) are available from e
laboratory tests on specimens of a polyester laminate
reinforced by five layers of combined woven glass rov-
ing and chopped strand mat with fibres oriented at 0/90
during testing and with some fibres in the load direction.
A regression analysis of these data pairs according to the
linear model leads to the following estimates of mean
values, standard deviations, and correlation coefficient
for the coefficients log K
10 and m

3 4
1.000 0.937 2 0.346
r5 0.937
2 0.346 2 0.210
1.000 2 0.210
1.000
(16)
E F m
G F
log10 K
5
2 12.372
GF
7.912
D
log10 K
m
G (19)

The number of aerodynamic stress cycles n10 in a 10-

min interval is represented as a function of 10(UT ,I )as
5 F G
0.513
0.247
r 5 2 0.996

follows
n10 5 1704 2 102.8U10 1 7.027U210 2 10.08IT
1 1402I 2
T bution. The standard deviation of the residual term e is
in which the coefficients are estimated by a least-squares
regression from a total of 1183 records of n ,10when U 10
is quoted in units of m/s.
As described in a previous section, the conditional dis-
tribution of Xu(U10,I T), expressed in terms of a parent
Weibull distribution, is used in conjunction with the
long-term distributions of U10 and I as well as the num- T
ber of cycles n10 (U10,I T) in 10-min intervals to establish
an ordered lifetime history of the bending moment range
X for the considered rotor blade in flapwise bending. The
corresponding history of the bending stress range S of
interest for prediction of cumulative damage by Miner’s
sum is easily derived by division by the section modulus
W, hence S 5 X/W.
when strain amplitudes are quoted as a dimensionless
absolute quantity. Under the central limit theorem the
(17)
distribution of (log K,m)
10 is a bivariate normal distri-
estimated to be se 5 0.396. The zero-mean residual term
e is represented by a normal distribution with this stan-
dard deviation. Reference is made to Fig. 5. For details
about the data and the tests of the laminates [6,7].
A constant modulus of elasticity is used, E 5
29.7·106 kPa.
3.4. Model uncertainty
Model uncertainty can be associated with all simplifi-
cations and idealizations made in the formulation of the
engineering models that are used for analysis of fatigue
damage and failure of a rotor blade in bending. One of
these model uncertainties is considered here, namely that
which is associated with the use of the quadratic Weibull

Table 1
Estimated coefficients in polynomial models for E[a ] and D[a ]i i

ibb 0 1 b2 b3 b4 c0 c1 c2 c3 c4

1 2 5.0568 1.5547 2 0.0092 244.10 2 575.08 2.2512 2 0.0863 0.0069 2 20.740 72.463
2 4.6875 0.7266 0.0101 228.50 2 551.22 2.0024 0.0591 2 0.0026 2 20.752 64.379
3 1.6387 0.0249 2 0.0035 1.6770 2 5.7838 0.0822 0.0107 2 0.0006 2 1.1925 3.4608
1108 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
Fig. 5. Fatigue data and least-squares fit of S–N curve.
model for representation of the distribution of the bend-
ing moment range conditional on the wind climate (U ,I
). Damage
10 T predictions by the Miner’s sum, based
on such quadratic Weibull distributions for the loading,
are therefore multiplied by a random factor F M. This ran-
dom factor accounts for the bias and represents the
uncertainty in these damage predictions as associated
with the use of the quadratic Weibull model for the con-
ditional load distributions. For a series of 39 wind cli-
mate bins (U 10
,I ),T observations of conditional load dis-
tributions are available, and the corresponding quadratic
Weibull models for these distributions have been fitted.
For each bin, two damage predictions by the Miner’s
sum have been made, the one based on the observed
empirical load distribution, the other based on the fitted
quadratic Weibull model, and the ratio between the two
predictions has been calculated. A statistical analysis of
the 39 damage ratios gives the following estimates of the
mean value and standard deviation of the random model
uncertainty factor F M factor of 1.74 on damage corresponds to a modest bias
E[FM] 5 0.575 D[FM] 5 0.171
The distribution of FM is taken as a normal distri-
bution. This is a standard approach for representation of
model uncertainty [5,12].
It appears that a significant bias in the damage predic-
tions by the quadratic Weibull model for the loading is
present and accounted for by a mean value of F ,Mwhich
is 0.575, i.e. considerably less than 1.0. This reflects that
the quadratic Weibull model on average tends to over-
predict damage by about 74%, or in factorial terms by a
factor of 1.74, and the mean value of F M is selected
so as to neutralize this. However, because the fatigue
damage is very nonlinear with respect to the loading, this
bias corresponds only to a mere 5–7% overprediction, on
average, of the bending moment ranges by the quadratic
Weibull model. This is actually quite accurate and may
serve to support use of the quadratic Weibull model as a
fairly accurate model for representation of flapwise
bending moment ranges of rotor blades, in particular when
considering it is based on a fit to the first three
statistical moments only. One could, as an alternative to
applying a random model uncertainty factor on the
predicted damage, have applied a common random
model uncertainty factor on all bending moment ranges
predicted by the quadratic Weibull model. Such a ran-
dom factor would then have had a median value of
approximately 0.94.
The observation that the 74% overprediction of dam-
age corresponds to only 5–7% overprediction of load
ranges needs some further demonstration and expla-
nation. Let D denote the damage for the long-term stress
range distribution, and let n(S) denote the corresponding
load spectrum as shown in Fig. 4. Assume now that all
stress ranges of this distribution are amplified by the
same factor h. It can then be shown that the resulting
distribution of the amplified stresses can be expressed as
n*(S) 5 n(S/h). Substitution into Eq. (12) then yields
the following expression for the damage D* associated
with the distribution of amplified stresses
O
k k
Dn*(S i) Dn*(S i)
D* 5 5 (21)
O i51
N(Si ) i51
BS i2 m
O SD O
k k
1 Si 1
5 S miDn 5 (S 9h)mDn(S 9i ) 5 hmD
B i51 h B i51 i
in which m is the slope of the S–N curve, here with a
value of about 8. It appears that the amplification of the
stress ranges by a factor h leads to an amplification of the
damage by a factor h . Thismserves to support the
strong nonlinearity between load and damage quoted
above, and in particular explains why a significant bias
factor of about 1.07 on stress ranges.
(20) Note that there may be other model uncertainties
present, which are not considered here, e.g. uncertainties
associated with use of the Miner’s sum approach for pre-
diction of cumulative damage. Such uncertainties
include uncertainties owing to this model’s omission of
features like load sequence effects and effects of load
cycling about a non-zero mean stress.
3.5. Limit state function
The reliability against fatigue failure of the considered
rotor blade in flapwise bending is analyzed for the cyclic
loading caused by wind over the design life. For this
purpose, a limit state function is defined
O
k
Dn(Si )
g(X) 5 1 2 FM D(X) 5 1 2 FM (22)
i51
N(Si )
in which D is the predicted cumulative fatigue damage
expressed through the Miner’s sum as defined in a pre-
 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
vious section, and X denotes the vector of stochastic
variables which include the variables U that represent the
uncertainty in the loading, the variables (log K,m,e)
10
that represent the uncertainty in the resistance, and the
variable F M that represents the bias and uncertainty in
the cumulative damage predictions as resulting from use
of the quadratic Weibull model for the loading.
4. Reliability analyses
The reliability is the complement of the failure prob-
ability
PF 5 P[g(X) # 0]
and may be expressed in terms of the reliability index 1
b 5 2 F- (P F). The reliability is computed by means
of a first-order reliability method as described in Madsen
et al. [10]. The results of the reliability analysis are
presented in Table 2.
The design point u* 5 ba gives the most likely
values of the basic stochastic variables at failure
expressed in the transformed standard normal space, the
u-space [10]. The corresponding point in the space of
basic variables X is denoted as x*. The vector a is a
unit-length vector of geometric sensitivity factors ai, and
ai2 roughly gives the fraction of the total uncertainty
which is caused by uncertainty in basic variable X i.
Therefore the ai2s are often referred to as uncertainty
importance factors.
By examination of the resulting importance factors
reported in the fourth column of Table 2, it appears that
the inherent variability in the fatigue life as represented
by the uncertainty in the residual e of the e–N curve is
by far the single most important uncertainty source. As
much as 82% of the total uncertainty importance is attri-
buted to this resistance variable, while the other e–N
curve variables m and log K vouch for another 11% of 10
the uncertainty importance. This leaves as little as 2%
uncertainty importance ascribed to the uncertainty in the
Table 2
Results of reliability analysis; 20-year lifetime fatigue in flapwise bending
Variable Distribution
U1 Normal
U2 Normal
U3 Normal
log10K Normal
m Normal
e Normal
FM Normal
Rotor blade W 5 0.0015 m3.
Probability of failure PF 5 0.63·10-4.
Reliability index b 5 3.84.
1109
load variables U , U 2, and U 3, and a modest 5% ascribed 1
to the load model uncertainty factor F . M
This represents a significant shift in the uncertainty
importance from the fifty-fifty split between load and
resistance variables reported by Ronold et al. [13] for a
similar wind turbine. This shift in the relative importance
between the various uncertainty sources is attributed to the
fact that the present study capitalizes on a distorted
Weibull distribution for the bending moment ranges,
which is believed to provide a good representation of
reality. The study by Ronold et al. [13] is based on a
distorted lognormal distribution for these ranges. This
distorted lognormal distribution model is in conformance
with what was state-of-the-art at the time of that study, but
(23) is prone to overestimate the probability content in the
upper tail of the distribution of the bending moment
ranges with overprediction of the higher bending stresses
(and thereby of the uncertainty importance factor for
loads) as the result. The replacement of the distorted log-
normal load distribution of the study by Ronold et al. [13]
by the distorted Weibull distribution of the present study
is considered to represent a significant improve- ment. It
has removed a considerable bias in the load rep-
resentation and thereby led to a reduction in the total
uncertainty. Also, it is well in conformance with other
recent studies [1,9]. On this background, the observed
reduction in the uncertainty importance factor for the
loads by this replacement is a natural finding, which
emphasizes the importance of a proper representation of
the load distribution and in particular of its upper tail. The
contribution of the distorted Weibull distribution over the
distorted lognormal distribution as addressed here could
have been further substantiated if a compari- son had been
made between studies using both distorted Weibull and
distorted lognormal distributions for the same structure,
not just for similar structures.
An inspection of the computational results reveals that
the major contribution to the cumulative damage is
ascribed to the about 10 7
medium-amplitude stress
cycles in a couple or more cycle-number decades centred
about log N 5 6 in the bending moment range distri- 10
Design point x* Importance factor a2
0.4902
0.5240 0.020
0.0031
2 11.776
0.111
7.6151
2 1.3732 0.815
0.7274 0.054
1110 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
bution, see Fig. 4. This is a fairly small fraction of the
total of about 109stress cycles that occur over the design
life of the rotor blade. The fact that such a low fraction of
the applied stress cycles vouches for most of the
cumulative damage can be ascribed to the value of the
slope parameter m of the e–N curve which is approxi-
mately equal to 8 for the composite laminate in the
present case. Stress ranges are raised to the mth power
for prediction of the number of cycles to failure. This
implies that the higher the value of m, the more dominant
are the high stress ranges. A comparison can be made
with welded steel details whose m values are usually in
the range 3–4 and whose major contribution to cumulat-
ive fatigue damage is ascribed to the low-amplitude
stress cycles that correspond to the lower right part of the
stress range distribution in Fig. 4. These stress cycles
form the majority of the total number of stress cycles
over the design life. An interesting consequence of this
dependency of the cumulative damage on the value of m
is that if epoxy materials are considered for the rotor
blade, for which m values of up to 12 or 13 apply, then
the fatigue problem may be turned into an extreme value
problem as far as the loading is concerned. Even for the
present m value of 8, this indicates how important a pro-
per estimation of the upper tail of the load distribution is.
5. Calibration of partial safety factors
5.1. Philosophy
It is of interest to demonstrate how reliability analysis
results, obtained as outlined in the previous sections, play
a role in codified practice and design. Calibration of
partial safety factors for design is an important appli-
cation. With the first-order reliability method available, it
is possible to determine sets of equivalent partial
safety factors which result in rotor blade designs with a
prescribed reliability. As a first step, a target reliability
index bt must be selected.
The choice for the target reliability index can be
derived from any risk acceptance criterion, or by requir-
ing that the safety level as resulting from the design by a
reliability analysis shall be the same as that resulting
from current deterministic design practice. The latter
approach is based on the assumption that current design
practice is optimal with respect to safety and economy or,
at least, leads to a safety level acceptable by society. A
range of target reliability indices will be considered in
the following.
In the case that the reliability, which results from a
reliability analysis of an actual wind turbine rotor blade,
differs from the prescribed reliability, the geometrical
quantities of the rotor blade needs to be adjusted. The
reliability analysis is then repeated for the rotor blade
with adjusted dimensions. This is iterated until the
resulting reliability equals the prescribed reliability. The
geometrical quantities, which can be adjusted to achieve a
specified reliability level, are sometimes denoted design
parameters. It is most practicable to operate on just one
such design parameter when adjusting the design in order
to reach the specified reliability level. For a rotor blade,
the most practicable parameter to adjust is the section
modulus W, which is a function of the cross- sectional
properties of the blade at the root.
To cover a range of target reliabilities, a series of
reliability analyses is carried out for a range of values for
the section modulus W. This gives the reliability index as
a function of the resistance moment W, b 5 b(W). In
addition, as a byproduct of the reliability analyses, the
values of the design point e* of the e–N curve residual
e prove useful in the following and are retained.
5.2. Characteristic values of governing variables
Characteristic values have to be selected for the gov-
erning load and resistance variables. For design in ulti-
mate loading, the 98% quantile of the annual maximum
load is traditionally used as the characteristic load value.
For design in fatigue loading, this has hardly any mean-
ing, as a characteristic load distribution for the design life
needs to be selected rather than such a single charac-
teristic load value. The governing load distribution is a
compound distribution of the bending moment range over
the design life of the rotor blade and has contri- butions
from many moment range distributions con- ditioned on
different 10-min wind climates (U ,I ). For 10 T
simplicity, an idealized characteristic moment range dis-
tribution is adopted here,
X 5 kRX0 1 2S log10n
log10(3N r) D (24)
in which X denotes the moment range which is exceeded
in n stress cycles during the design life T , LN r 5 fr TL is
the number of rotor cycles in this life, fr denotes the rotor
frequency, X is a characteristic bending moment whose 0
derivation is described below, and k is a scaling factor. R
A value of kR 5 2.2 is applied in the following. This
value has been calibrated as the one that will lead to a
cumulative damage equal to the median damage for the
true compound moment range distribution derived from
the observed conditional moment range distributions as
described above.
In accordance with the Danish code [2], the character-
istic bending moment is defined as
r 2 R2
X0 5 w cCL (25)
2 3
in which R is the length or radius of the rotor blade
 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114 1111

measured from the centre of the rotor to the tip, c is structural analyses are carried out. For each value of W,
characteristic chord length at 2R/3, C L 5 1.5 is a lift the cumulative damage D is calculated according to Eq.
coefficient at 2R/3, r 5 1.28 kg/m3 is the density of air, (12) on the basis of values of Dn predicted from the
and w is a reference wind speed defined by design stress range distribution in conjunction with

D
4p 2
w2 5 fR 1 n20 (26)
3 r
S
where f is the rotor frequency as before, and r n0 is the
10-min mean wind speed at stalling of the entire rotor
blade. For the considered 500 kW wind turbine, the fol-
lowing numbers apply: T L 5 20 years, fr 5 0.5033 s-1,
Nr 5 0.317·109 rotations, R 5 19.5 m, c 5 1.18 m, and
n0 5 14.6 m/s.
For –N curves, it is a standard approach to select the e
characteristic e–N curve as the curve that results when
the estimated e–N curve is shifted to the left by a dis-
tance equal to two times the standard deviation of the
residual e, hence
log10N 5 E[log10K] 2 E[m] log10e 2 2se
5 2 12.372 2 7.912 log10e 2 2·0.396 (27)
5 2 13.164 2 7.912 log10e
when values for the considered rotor blade laminate are
substituted. Reference is made to Det Norske Veritas [3]
and Dansk Ingeniørforening [2].
5.3. Partial safety factors and design load and
resistance properties
Two partial safety factors are introduced. A load fac-
tor gf greater than 1.0 is applied as a factor on all load
values of the characteristic moment range distribution
and the relation S 5 X/W between stress range S and
moment range X is substituted such that the design stress
range distribution becomes
values of N predicted from the design S–N curve. Pairs
of partial safety factors ( ,gf gm) are determined in such
a way that this accumulated damage becomes exactly
equal to the limit value of 1.0 that indicates failure. This
is conveniently done by calculating the cumulative dam-
age D for many trial pairs ( , gf gm) and picking those
pairs for which D 5 1.0 results. For each value of W,
there will be an infinite number of pairs ( f, gm) that will
lead to D 5 1.0. This is a result of the form g of the limit
state function for fatigue failure in flapwise bending and
implies an arbitrariness in selecting the partial safety fac-
tors ( , f gm), as the requirement turns out to be on their g
product. Hence, the result of this exercise performed for
many section modulus values W is a required partial
safety factor product gfgm as a function of the section
modulus W, gfgm 5 gfgm(W).
The result of the structural reliability analyses, b 5
b(W), and the result of the deterministic structural analy-
ses, gfgm 5 gfgm(W), are combined by elimination of the
section modulus W to give the reliability index b as a
function of the calibrated partial safety factor product
gfgm, b 5 b(gfgm), see Fig. 6.
As discussed above, an infinite number of possible
choices for the set of partial safety factors ( , fg gm) exist
for each value, as the requirement is on their product. A
robust choice of partial safety factors is usually a set
which leads to design values of stresses and strengths as
close as possible to the design point values resulting from
the corresponding reliability analysis. This is so because
the design point of the reliability analysis rep- resents the
most likely outcome of the governing stoch- astic
variables at failure. In the following, it is outlined how
such a particular robust set of partial safety factors can be
chosen for the present design problem and ther- eby

S D
remedy the arbitrariness in the result of the cali- bration.
X0 log10n
S 5 gfk R 12 (28)
W log10(3N r) Based on the characteristic e–N curve established in
Section 5.2 above, the design e–N curve can be
Correspondingly, gm is a material factor greater than expressed as
1.0. For any given number of cycles to failure, the
characteristic strength is divided by this number to give log10N 5 E[log10K] 2 E[m] log10(egm) 2 2se (30)
the design strength. Recall the relationship S 5 2Ee
between stress range and strain amplitude. This implies Based on the results of the reliability analysis, the – e
that the design S–N curve becomes N curve in the design point can be expressed as

log10N 5 2 13.164 2 7.912 log10 S D

S
g
2E m
(29)
log10N 5 log10K * 2 m*log10e 1 e* (31)

in which log K*, m*, and e* denote design point values

5.4. Calibration of the intercept log K, the slope m, and the residual e, 10
10

respectively. The sought-after particular choice for gm is

For the same series of values of the section modulus achieved by requiring this design point curve to be equal
W that was used for the reliability analyses, deterministic to the design curve and eliminating N. Unfortunately,
1112 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
Fig. 6. Reliability index vs calibrated partial safety factor product gfgm.
this will give an expression for gm which is not invariant
with the strain e. As an approximation, the design point
values for m and log K can be replaced by the mean 10
values of these variables. This approximation can be jus-
tified by the relatively small uncertainty importance
ascribed to these variables as determined by the reliability
analysis. Hence, Eq. (31) changes to
log10N 5 E[log10K] 2 E[m]log10e 1 e*
and the sought-after particular choice for gm becomes
e* 2 se
e* 1 0.792
- 1
gm 5 10 E[m] 5 10- 7.912
which is a requirement expressed explicitly in terms of
the results of the reliability analysis.
The particular choice for the material factor gm in Eq.
(33), in conjunction with the requirement to the product
gfgm, is easily seen to suffice for determination of a cor-
responding particular requirement to the load factor gf.
The robustness in this particular set of partial safety fac-
tors is embedded in the fact that it, by its derivation in
compliance with the results of the underlying reliability
analysis, reflects appropriately the uncertainty impor-
tance information, which is a byproduct of this analysis.
Reference is made to Det Norske Veritas [4].
As an example, consider a rotor blade design for high
safety and less serious consequence, which would be a
reasonable classification for a wind turbine design
against fatigue where human life is at negligible risk.
According to Nordic Committee on Building Regu-
lations [11], the requirement to the annual failure prob-
ability for design under such a classification is 10-. 5
Under a Poissonian assumption for a rare failure event,
this implies that the acceptable failure probability in a
20-year lifetime is 2.0·10 -,4and the corresponding target
reliability index is bt 5 3.54.
For a target reliability index bt 5 3.54, Fig. 6 gives
a requirement to the product of the partial safety factors
(32) gfgm 5 1.252 (34)
The underlying reliability analysis is performed for a
section modulus W 5 0.00144 m and yields a design 3
point value e* 5 2 1.273 for the –N curve residual e. e
(33) Hence, the requirement to the material factor becomes
e* 1 0.792 2 1.273 1 0.792
gm 5 10- 7.912 5 10- 7.912 5 1.150 (35)
and the requirement to the load factor is then implied as
gfgm
gf 5 5 1.088 (36)
gm
The required load factor is found to be 1.09, which is
fairly close to 1.0, and which reflects the fairly small
importance attributed to the uncertainty in the loading
and the load model as assessed by the reliability analysis.
The required material factor is correspondingly found to
be 1.15. This may seem not to be a particularly strict
requirement. However, the partial safety factors are much
dependent on the choices made for the correspond- ing
characteristic values for load and resistance. In the
present case, a lower-tail quantile of the resistance
 K.O. Ronold et al. /Engineering Structures 21 (1999) 1101–1114
properties is chosen as the characteristic resistance. This
implies that the characteristic resistance automatically
accounts for part of the uncertainty in the resistance, and
the material factor is then only meant to account for the
remainder of this uncertainty, thus leaving the safety fac-
tor requirement in the present case to a mere 1.15.
It is reassuring to note that the turbine- and site-spe-
cific partial safety factors calibrated here lie in a similar
range as those of the study by Lange and Winterstein [9],
even though that study is concerned with a much smaller
two-bladed turbine than the three-bladed turbine of the
present study.
6. Summary and conclusions
The design of a wind turbine rotor blade against
fatigue failure in flapwise bending has been considered.
The load history in the design life has been modelled on
the basis of observed distributions of bending moments
at the blade root of an instrumented prototype rotor blade
subjected to wind loads. Statistical uncertainty in the dis-
tribution parameters has been estimated and taken into
account. The resistance has been modelled in terms of an
–Necurve. Uncertainties in the variables that describe
this curve have been estimated and have also been taken
into account. The cumulative damage that eventually
leads to a fatigue failure has been predicted according
to a Miner’s sum formulation.
The models for load, resistance, and cumulative dam-
age have been used as a basis for defining a limit state
function for fatigue failure, and a first-order reliability
analysis of the considered rotor blade against such a fail-
ure in flapwise bending has been carried out. The
reliability analysis has been interpreted with respect to the
probability of failure as well as identification of
important uncertainty sources. The inherent variability in
the fatigue life as represented by the uncertainty in the
residual of the e–N curve has been found to be the
single most important uncertainty source.
A reliability-based calibration of partial safety factors
for design of the rotor blade against fatigue failure in
flapwise bending has been carried out. A load factor gf
has been applied to all stresses, and all strengths have
been divided by a material factor gm. A target lifetime
reliability corresponding to an acceptable annual prob-
ability of failure of 10-5 has been applied for the cali-
bration. Based on a specific choice of characteristic
values for load and resistance, a requirement to the pro-
duct of load factor and material factor gfgm 5 1.252 has
come out. Based on the uncertainty importance infor-
mation from the underlying reliability analysis, a parti-
cular robust set of partial safety factors that fulfil this
requirement has been determined, hence gf 5 1.088 and
gm 5 1.150.
Although major uncertainty sources associated with
1113
load and resistance have been included in the reliability
analysis, and have been accounted for by calibration of a
load factor and a material factor for use in design, it is
important to appreciate that other uncertainty sources
may be present. Such additional uncertainty sources
include model uncertainties associated with the Miner’s
sum formulation for prediction of cumulative damage,
size effects in material properties, temperature depen-
dencies, special lamination problems near the blade root,
long-term environmental degradation effects owing to
material wear and exposure to moisture and sunlight etc.
Local wind climate parameters may be known only with
some
uncertainty. These uncertainties can all be
accounted for in design by introducing additional partial
safety factors. These additional safety factors may in
principle be calibrated by a fully analogue reliability
analysis technique, provided probabilistic models can be
established for the uncertainties that they are meant to
cover. Other issues to consider in future research include
the implications of a nonlinear relationship between
stress and strain, especially in the high stress range, as
stress and strain in this study have been modelled in ide-
alized manner as being proportional.
It is emphasized that the reliability-based safety factor
calibration presented herein is site and wind-turbine spe-
cific and only applicable to flapwise bending of rotor
blades. Different safety factors may result for different
sites,
different wind turbines, and different blade
materials. Similar calibrations can be carried out for a
series of different wind turbines at various sites. A com-
mon set of partial safety factors for a class of wind tur-
bines, sites, and materials can then be optimized in
dependence of the expected demand for each individual
combination of wind turbine, site, and material within the
class. Future work is suggested devoted to investi-
gations of a series of wind turbines for different sites and
blade materials with the ultimate goal of developing a
reliability-based optimal design code. Such a code is not
to be limited to rotor-blade fatigue in flapwise bend- ing
alone, as extensions to other design cases such as
rotor-blade fatigue in edgewise bending as well as fatigue
of other wind-turbine components are foreseen.
Acknowledgements
The work presented in this paper has been supported
financially by the Danish Energy Agency under its
Energy Research Programme. This contribution is grate-
fully acknowledged.
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