PIDA - Inception Report

African Development Bank
Group AFRICAN UNION NEPAD
www.wordle.net
INCEPTION REPORT July 2010
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development

in Africa
PIDA
Ref: ONRI.1/PIDA/2010/04
in consortium with
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................... 1
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................... 1
LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................. 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................... 6

1 BACKGROUND ........................................................................... 1
1.1 The inception process .................................................................... 1
1.2 The structure of the inception report.................................................. 2
1.3 Definitions.................................................................................. 2
1.3.1 Regional economic community (REC) and economic integration....................2
1.3.2 Regionalism ...................................................................................................4
1.3.3 Regional integration .......................................................................................4
1.3.4 Regional cooperation .....................................................................................5
1.3.5 Subsidiarity ....................................................................................................5
1.3.6 Continental /regional projects .........................................................................5
2 HORIZONTAL SECTION ................................................................. 8
2.1 Introduction................................................................................ 8
2.2 Objectives of the study .................................................................. 8
2.2.1 Global objective..............................................................................................8
2.2.2 Specific objectives..........................................................................................8
2.3 Outputs ..................................................................................... 9
2.3.1 Output 1 Planning and monitoring reports ....................................................10
2.3.2 Output 2: Phase 1 reports ............................................................................11
2.3.3 Output 3: Phase 2 reports ............................................................................13
2.3.4 Output 4 : Phase III Report...........................................................................14
2.3.5 Output 5: other .............................................................................................15
2.3.6 Recommendations on the time line ..............................................................15
2.4 Specific methodological points......................................................... 15
2.4.1 Analytical framework, causal analysis ..........................................................15
2.4.2 Screening of policies and strategies .............................................................18
2.4.3 Screening of projects....................................................................................19
2.4.4 Outlook for the future....................................................................................20
2.5 Cross cutting aspects .................................................................... 25
2.5.1 Financing and PPP ......................................................................................25
2.5.2 Environment and climate change .................................................................25
2.6 Detailed description of horizontal tasks .............................................. 26
2.6.1 Preparation of the PIDA Study workshops....................................................26
2.6.2 Phase III.......................................................................................................26
2.7 Other horizontal aspects ................................................................ 27
2.7.1 Data collection..............................................................................................27
2.7.1 Resource Planning.......................................................................................28
2.7.2 Quality control ..............................................................................................30
2.7.3 Geographical Information System ................................................................31
2.7.4 Communications ..........................................................................................31
2.7.5 Risk assessment ..........................................................................................31
ENERGY SECTION…………………………………………………………………………………..41
TRANSPORT SECTION…………………………………………………………………………….77
TWRM SECTION…………………………………………………………………………………….123
ICT SECTION………………………………………………………………………………………….169
ANNEXES........................................................................ 219
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
INCEPTION REPORT
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This inception report describes the methodology and work plan of the study for the
formulation of the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA Study).
The study started on May 3rd 2010 and the inception phase on May 23rd 2010. The
PIDA Consulting Team (PCT), under the direction of Jean François Bauer, has
prepared this inception report. It has been submitted to the African Development
Bank (AfDB) at the end of a six weeks inception phase (i.e. July 2nd 2010). The report
will be discussed during a kick-off workshop scheduled in Addis Ababa for the week
of July 26th 2010.
The study is under a contract between AfDB and the consulting consortium led by
SOFRECO (France) and including ASCON Africa (South Africa), SOFRECOM
(France), Nathan (USA), SYSTRA (France), CabIRA (Ivory Coast), and MWH (UK),
referred to in the report as “the Consultant”.
The inception mission has taken place in excellent conditions. The Consultant was
given the heartiest of welcome by the AfDB management and staff. The visit to the
World Bank’s AICD team in Washington in parallel with the AfDB mission, provided
an exhaustive introduction to African infrastructure. The meeting with the Panel of
Experts (POE) and the AfDB’s PIDA Management Team (PMT) on June 17th 2010
was instrumental in framing the study issues. The Consultant would like to express
their most sincere thanks to all those who have provided their precious time and
advice during this part of the work.
Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 1

INCEPTION REPORT
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ACOWAS/CEDEAO Economic Community of West African States

AEO Africa Economic Outlook
AfDB African Development Bank
AICD African Infrastructure Country Diagnostic
AMCOW African Ministers' Council on Water
ANBO African Network of Basin Organizations
AU African Union
AUC African Union Commission
AWF African Water Facility
AWV 2025 Africa Water Vision for 2025
CAB Central African Backbone ()
CAPNET Capacity Building for Integrated Water Resources Management
CAPP Central African Power Pool
CEDARE Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region
CEDARE Centre for Environment and Development for the Arab Region
CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States
CFA Cooperative Framework Agreement
CFA Cooperation Framework Agreements
CICOS Commission Internationale du bassin du Congo-Oubangui-Sangha
CICOS Commission Internationale du Bassin du Congo
CM Common Market
COMELEC Maghreb Committee for Electricity
COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
CR Criticality Ratio
CU Customs Union
EABN East African Broadband Network (EABN)
EAC East African Community
EAPP East African Power Pool
EASSy Eastern African Submarine Cable System
ECA Economic Commission for Africa
ECCAS/CEMAC Economic Community of Central African States
EIA Energy Information Administration

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ENCOM Eastern Nile Council of Ministers

ENSAP Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program
ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office – Addis Ababa
ESA Environmental and Social Assessments
ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation
FTA Free Trade Agreement
GDI Gross Domestic Investment
GEF Global Environmental Fund
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GIS Geographic Information System
GRDC Global Runoff Data Centre
GWP Global Water Partnership
HFO Heavy Fuel Oil
HIPPSA Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa
HSGIC Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
ICDs Inland Container Depots
ICID International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage
ICOLD International Commission of Large Dams
ICOR Incremental Capital Output Ration
ICT Information and Communication Technology
IEA International Energy Agency
IFAD International Fund For Agricultural Development
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IGO Inter Governmental Organizations
IHA International Hydropower Association
IMF International Monetary Fund
INBO International Network of Basin Organizations
INX Internet Node Exchange
IPPs Integrated Power Plant System
IPTRID International Program for Technology and Research in Irrigation and
Drainage
ISP Internet Service Provider

ITU International Telecommunications Union

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IWMI International Water Management Institute

IWRM International Water Resources Management
L/RBOs Lake/River Basin Organisations
LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission
LMNN Lake Malawi-Niassa-Nyasa
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
LVBC Lake Victoria Basin Commission
MCSLV Maritime Communications for Safety on Lake Victoria
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MLTSF Medium and Long Term Strategic Framework
MM Man Months
NBA Niger Basin Authority
NBI Nile Basin Initiative
NELSAP Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Programme
NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development
Nile-COM Nile Basin Council of Ministers
NRA National Regulatory Authorities
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OKACOM Okavango Basin Commission
OMVG Organization pour la Mise en Valeur du ﬂeuve Gambie
OMVS Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Sénégal
ORASECOM Orange-Senqu River Commission
OSS Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel
PAP Priority Action Plan
PCT PIDA Consulting Team
PDCT-AC Transport Consensual Master plan in Central Africa
PIDA Programme for infrastructure Development in Africa
PMT PIDA Management team
POE Panel of Experts
PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility
PPP Public Private Partnership
RBO River Basin Organization
RECs Regional Economic Communities
RWSSI Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative
SADC Southern Africa Development Community
SANE Countries (South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt)
SAPP South African Power Pool

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SAR Search and Rescue systems

SATA Sub-Saharan Africa Basic Network-Terrestrial Link
STAP Short Term Action Plan
SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
TAH Trans-African Highway
TEAMS The East African Marine System
ToR Terms of Reference
TWR Transboundary Water Resources
TWRM Transboundary Water Resources Management
UAT Union Africain des Télécommunications
UMA Arab Maghreb Union
UN United Nations
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
UNEP United Nations Environment Program
UPDEA Union of Producer and Distributors of Electricity in Africa
USGS United States Geological Survey
VBA Volta Basin Authority
WAPP West African Power Pool
WB World Bank
WBS Wok Breakdown structure
WCD World Commission on Dams
WPP Water Partnership Program
WRM Water Resources Management
WSS water supply and sanitation
WWF World Wildlife Fund
ZAMCOM Zambezi Watercourse Commission

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Inception Phase of the PIDA Study took place over the six weeks form May 20 to
July 2nd 2010 in Tunis.
The PIDA Study focuses on regional/continental projects that foster regional and
continental integration and participation of Africa in world trade (PIDA projects). It is
implemented through 3 phases: 1- diagnosis, 2- planning 3- consensus building in
the four sectors of Energy, Transport, ICT, and Transboundary Water Resources
(TWR).
The cross-sector aspects of the study are the screening of policies and projects,
the establishment of the outlook for the future, and the formulation of institutional
recommendations and processes necessary to enable the effective implementation
of the PIDA projects.
The screening of policies, projects and institutional framework relies on the analysis
of limiting factors. It seeks to explain why some policies and institutional frameworks
have been more successful than others in support of regional infrastructure projects.
In this regard the consultant will analyze the consistency of (or lack of) political
commitment, ownership and alignment along the decision chain from policies to
projects' implementation and make recommendations to be included in the
infrastructure development program.
The outlook for the future will rely on the analysis of past trends for Africa for the
period 1980-2010 and be prepared through the use of an economic simulation tool,
which will consider two scenarios for the period 2010-2040, (i) a “business as usual”
scenario reproducing the performance of Africa over the 1980-2010 period with an
average rate of GDP growth of about 3%, (ii) a "stretch" scenario with an annual rate
of growth of 6% comparable to that achieved by India and Malaysia over the 30 past
years. The output of the simulation is the macro economic framework, which will be
used in the sector models for estimating the demand for infrastructure under the
different scenarios.
The Consultant’s work on the sectors brings to the forefront the priority of high return
and short gestation period “soft” investments in terms of capacity building of regional
institutions and of facilitation of trade in energy, ICT and transport.
In the Transboundary Water Resources (TWR) Sector, the PIDA Study will focus
on cooperative mobilization and valorization of transboundary water resources for
increased water security, food production, hydropower generation, navigation, and
flood control. Since approximately 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources are of a
transboundary nature, it is obvious that equitable, peaceful, and sustainable water
resources development is not possible without effective regional cooperation at basin
level, in a shared benefits approach.
There are 60 international river basins in Africa, but many of them have no
coordination mechanism, while many of the existing Lake or River Basin
Organization (L/RBOs) are still too weak, with limited mandates and resources. The

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study will start with seven major basins selected by the African Ministers Council on
Water (AMCOW) in 2004 in large consultation with the stakeholders: Senegal and
Niger basins in West Africa, Congo and Lake Chad basins in Central Africa, Nile
basin in Eastern Africa and Okavango and Zambezi basins in Southern Africa. Other
basins are not at all excluded in a later stage.
The study will consider investments in physical infrastructure, or “hard” investments,

as well as investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation, or “soft”
investments. The “hard” investments are the hydraulic infrastructures having
significant transboundary impacts, while the “soft” investments may include the
creation of new or the strengthening of existing L/RBOs, the strengthening of the
information and knowledge base, planning capacities and modelling tools,
communication and public awareness, and the monitoring capacities.
The Consultant will promote the concept of “integrated investment programs” at basin
level, with a long-term perspective, focusing on tangible outputs in a stepwise
approach and with due regard to the protection of the ecosystems. Several L/RBOs
are currently in the process of preparing integrated development plans. Remaining in
line with the bottom-up and participatory principles of Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM) and with the subsidiarity principle, planning of new
infrastructures will not shortcut the existing planning processes, but rather propose to
strengthen them wherever necessary. The analysis of investment needs and
priorities will combine a demand-driven approach focusing on future food, water, and
energy demands, with a supply-drive approach focusing on the irrigation and
hydropower development potentials, taking into account the sensitivity to increasing
water scarcity in the scope of population growth and climate variability and change.
The PIDA TWR investment program is seen as a continuation of the NEPAD STAP
and will build on the experience gained and actions undertaken by the African Water
Facility (AWF). It will help the AWF to move to larger infrastructure investments to
ensure water security in Africa and achieve the African Water Vision: “An Africa
where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water resources
for poverty alleviation, socioeconomic development, regional cooperation, and the
environment”.
In the Transport Sector, the PIDA Study emphasis that Transport infrastructure
development is a key instrument for African countries to facilitate trade, strengthen
economic relations, create larger markets, increase peoples’ mobility and enhance
the overall socio-economic development while reducing poverty.
Transport services on the African continent are inefficient as demonstrated by high

operating costs, poor operating practices, poor routine maintenance of transport
infrastructure, etc. In addition, Africa has 15 landlocked countries and their
transportation needs to the seaports are not adequately provided for in the current
continental and regional transport/logistics system.
Cumbersome administrative procedures, poor management practices and poor

facilities within the transit countries are detrimental to the development of the
international trade of the landlocked countries and to regional integration.
The PIDA study will develop a common vision for Africa for the next 10, 20 and 30
years. The transport team will conduct the necessary studies and analyzes (analysis
of transport policies, review of recently completed infrastructure projects, analysis of
on-going or under preparation projects, establishment of outlooks for the sector etc)
to ensure that the transport infrastructures and the relevant transport services are

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correctly developed and improved to satisfy the transport demand resulting from
projected economic developments.
In particular, the PIDA study will analyze the driving role of transport infrastructures
and transport services in economic growth and make sure that the proposed
investments and soft accompanying measures are included in the PIDA program.
The transport team will also ensure that the increase of the traffic demand resulting
from the macro economic growth can be satisfied and that the transport sector does
not become a bottleneck to the reaching of the vision.
The PIDA study will provide strategic leadership by mobilizing political action and
financial resources to secure completion of needed reforms and facilitate preparation
and implementation of sector development programmes and projects by RECS and
regional institutions. The study will find ways and means to enlarge the participation
of the private sector both in operation of transport services and the financing of
infrastructure through concession, BOT, maintenance and management contract etc;
in particular for ports and air transport
The Consultant considers that the implementation of soft programmes for the
removal of regulatory and institutional bottleneck should be a priority for the transport
sector in Africa; these actions need to be complemented by the development of
intermodal facilities and the reduction in the number of the missing links.
During the first phase of the study, particular attention will be gpaid to the projects
included in the STAP of NEPAD that have not, as yet, been completed. For these
projects the Consultant will:
 Give details on their level of completion

Try to explain the reasons for delays in their implementation and
Make recommendation on the best ways to move these projects forward
For ICT, the PIDA study will be based on the fact that ICT is an essential tool not
only for economic development of Africa but mainly for the African population. The
huge and fast development of the mobile market in 5 years is the tree that hides the
forest. Essentially based on radio technology, the main part of the infrastructures are
not able to handle the Broadband with efficiency.
A brief of ICT sector can be summarizing by 3 sentences:
Africa is an island in the middle of the ICT worldwide sea and African countries
are islands on the continent
The usage of the ICT services is beyond reach for the most fragile population.
Broadband access price correspond to more than 100 per cent of their monthly
GNI per capita (ITU 2009 Africa report)
The existing development is based essentially on a short term vision and just a
little of the total investment amount is made on long-lasting infrastructures able to
handle the Broadband challenge for the future.
ICT sector is a dynamic sector where tomorrow is different of yesterday and requires
a specific attention to secure the future (long term) and facilitate the usage of ICT
services by the majority of the population.

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Until 2009, Africa was an island in the middle of Internet sea; the landing of different
Submarine cables in 2010 with more to come in the short term change the
environment of the Africa in term of worldwide connectivity; From a kilobits world,
Africa moves to Terabits one. This fact will connect some seaside countries to the
rest of the world; the case of the African landlocked countries is a question which
shall be solved if Africa doesn’t want to create an African digital divide between
seaside countries and landlocked countries. Interconnect the different countries
between them will maximise the usage of broadband and therefore will support
regional integration.
The ICT sector of the PIDA study shall focus mainly on how to solve this double
problematic:
Reduce the price of the ICT usage as soon as possible to increase the economic
development
Implement long lasting infrastructures able to offer broadband access and usage
to the future generation.
The mains issues to be tackled by the ICT sector of PIDA Study will be:
Develop ICT governance and regulatory environments to reduce the end-user

usage price and to create an enable environment to long lasting infrastructure
investment as well as establish a efficient policy and regulatory environment (Soft)
Develop long lasting Broadband infrastructures around Africa and between the
African countries by weaving cobwebs around Africa (Continental) and between
African countries (Regional), which are the first step of an efficient Broadband
infrastructure development required to offer broadband access without
discrimination to the African population. (Hard)
The main features of Africa’s energy sector are an important resource base,
including sizeable oil and gas reserves as well as a large untapped hydro electric
potential, accompanied by low access to modern energy, with the resultant reliance
on traditional fuels and widespread environmental damage.
The challenges are particularly daunting in the power sector, which experiences
shortages and frequent outages that affect negatively economic development. The
poor financial condition of the utilities is a threat to macro economic stability and
thwarts investment in the sector and in the economy at large. The combination of
emergency investment, lack of financial discipline and poorly managed operations
leads to high prices for electricity and other fuels.
The response to these challenges will come from regional market integration and
large regional projects to increase access and lower costs while restoring sector
credit worthiness.
The PIDA Study will take into account the climate change concerns by analyzing low
emissions and clean energy scenarios.
The future of the sector will be built around large-scale investments, many regional
and financed in a significant manner by the private sector.

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The “soft” component of the energy work will focus on regulations supportive regional
projects as well as on enhancing the countries’ credit rating and the sector’s
creditworthiness as a prerequisite to national or regional investment.

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1 BACKGROUND
This inception report is the first deliverable due under the Contract for the PIDA
Study between the AfDB and the SOFRECO led consortium.
The report comprises five sections:
One horizontal section, geared to responding to the General Terms of Reference;

Four sector sections responding to the sector specific TOR.
The Consultant has followed a common template for the sector sections.
Nevertheless each sector section has its own characteristics. The sector sections
are self-contained and will be mainly of interest to sector specialists.
1.1 The inception process

The contract for the PIDA Study was signed on April 20th 2010. The project started
on May 3rd 2010 and the inception phase on May 23rd 2010. The study will be carried
out over 18 months.
The inception team included Jean François Bauer (Program Leader), Ananda
Covindassamy (Energy Leader), Bernard Chatelin (Transport Leader), Olivier Cogels
(Transboundary Water Resources Leader), Claude Jacquelot (ICT Leader), Etienne
Soltesz (Institutionnal Development Economist), Alain Ballereau (Transport Strategy
Policy Expert), Peter Cook (Transport Projection Specialist), Idir Kendel (Energy
Program Expert), Hichame Selmaoui (Deputy Project Director).
A consultation with the Panel of Experts and the PMT took place in Tunis on June
17th 2010.
As indicated in the Terms of Reference (TOR), the inception report will be presented
to the stakeholders at a kick-off workshop to be held in Addis Ababa on July 29-30,
2010. The remarks and recommendations emerging from the kick-off workshop will
be taken into account for the finalization of the inception report.
The steps of the inception stage have included:
Meetings with World Bank staff (in parallel with a AfDB mission) on the African
Infrastructure Country Diagnosis (AICD) data and study, the regional sector
strategies;
Analysis of the general and sector TOR and attached documents (PIDA study
concept note and TOR of the Panel of Experts);
Team discussions;
Preparation of issues papers and presentations (principally on scope and
methodological aspects) and their discussion with the Panel of Experts (POE) and
PIDA Management Team (PMT);
Contacts with some stakeholders;

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Identification and detailed description of the tasks to be performed;

Delivery of draft inception report
1.2 The structure of the inception report

This inception report has two main sections:
Horizontal aspects:
This section will present the material pertaining to:
Definitions
The outputs of the study;

Proposed methodology for the three aspects specifically requested in the TOR: (i)
evaluation of policies, regulatory and institutional frameworks; (ii) evaluation of
regional and continental projects and (iii) preparing the outlook for the future,
Potentialconstraints affecting the infrastructure development program: financing,
environment and climate change;
Detailed task description for Phase III; and
Resource use for the study in general including aggregate task and manpower
planning.
Sector aspects
This section will describe for each sector the scope, the methodology and data
needs, the detailed task description, and the work plan. As per the terms of reference
the sector sections deal with Phase I and Phase II activities.
1.3 Definitions
In accordance with section 2.3.3 of the general terms of reference the following
section defines some key terms.
1.3.1 Regional economic community (REC) and economic integration

The 1991 Abuja Treaty establishing the African Economic Community proposed in
the article 28 the creation of RECs as the basis for African integration on a 34 years
timetable for regional and then continental integration by 2028. The 6 stages of
economic integration are as follows as follows:
Basic Elements of the Six Stages of Economic Integration

(As foreseen in the Abuja Treaty)
Stage 1 Consolidation Strengthening existing RECs
Stage 2 Free Trade Zero tariffs between member countries and reduced
Agreement non-tariff barriers

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(FTA)
Stage 3 Customs FTA + common external tariff

Union (CU)
Stage 4 Common CU extended to the Continent + free movement of capital

Market (CM) and labour, some policy harmonization
Stage 5 Economic CM + common economic policies and institutions (may

Union (EU) include monetary union, and social and fiscal common
regulatory)
Stage 6 Federalism EU + monetary union, and political, social and fiscal common
regulatory.
The AUC recognises eight RECs, each established under a separate treaty. They
are:
The Arab Maghreb Union (UMA)

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
The Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD)
The East African Community (EAC)
The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS / CEMAC)
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS / CEDEAO)
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC)
The table below summarises the situation of each REC towards economic
integration.

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current stage of integration
achievement
REC Creation Countries Objective Free Trade area Customs Union
Region AMU 1989 Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia Full economic no progress no progress
North Africa Rabat union
CEN-SAD 1999
Tripoli Bénin, Burkina, RCA, Tchad, Djibouti, Egypt, Free Trade Area
Region CEN-SAD 1999 Erytrea, Gambia, Libya, Mali, Maroc, Niger, and Integration in in progress no progress
Nigeria, Sénégal, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia some sectors
West Africa Tripoli
ECOWAS / 1975 Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote Full economic established in progress
CEDEAO d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea- union
Abuja Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria,
Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo
Region ECCAS / 1983 Angola, Burundi, CAR, Cameroon, Chad, Full economic Created and in Proposed for
Central CEEAC DRC, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, union force 2010
Africa Libreville Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, Rwanda
Southern SADC 1992 Angola, Bostwana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Full economic Launched Proposed for
Africa Gaborone Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, union 2010
Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe
COMESA 1993
Lusaka Angola, Burundi, Comores, RDC, Djibouti, Egypt,
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi,
East COMESA 1993 Common market established launched
Mauritius, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan,
Africa Lusaka Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
EAC 1967 Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, (+ Burundi, Rwanda in Full economic established In full force
Arusha 2009) union
IGAD 1986 Djibouti, Erytrée, Ethiopie, Kenya, Somalie, Full economic in progress no progress
Djibouti Soudan, Uganda union
Source : UN-ECA Assessing Regional integration in Africa IV, 2010, page 32
The other Inter Governmental Organizations (IGO) (such as CEMAC, UEMOA or

IOC), if needed, will be dealt with in the Study through the REC, which encompasses
them (in the example respectively ECCAS, ECOWAS and COMESA).
The Power Pools are specialised agencies of the relevant REC and key bodies for
the power component of the Energy sector. The relations between the Power Pools
and the REC are described in more details in the energy section.
The Lake/River Basin Organisations (L/RBO) are the relevant bodies as concerns
the Transboundary Water Resources (TWR) sector. The relations between REC and
RBO and their impact on the study are dealt with in more details in the TWR section.
1.3.2 Regionalism
Regionalism refers to a common sense of identity and purpose within a geographical
area and is supported by specific institutions promoting certain activities among
several nations. In that sense it differs from multilateralism (where there is no
common identity and purpose) and from nationalism, which refers to a single nation.
The European Coal and Steel Community established in 1950 is an example of

institution promoting regionalism in Europe and a forerunner of the European Union.
1.3.3 Regional integration

The Constitutive Act establishing the African Union (AU) sees regional integration as
one of the foundations of African unity. This concept is also elaborated on in the
Lagos Plan of Action and the Abuja Treaty, which describe the specific economic,
political and institutional mechanisms for attaining this ideal. The adoption of the New
Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) provides an overall development

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framework for the continent, which sets regional integration as one of its core
objectives. 1
The objectives of regional integration range from economic to political although it has
become a political economy initiative where increased trade is seen as the means to
achieve broader socio-political and development objectives. The focus is on
removing barriers to trade in the region, increasing the free movement of people,
labour, goods, and capital across national borders, reducing the possibility of regional
armed conflict, and adopting cohesive regional stances on policy issues, such as the
environment, climate change and migration.
1.3.4 Regional cooperation

Regional cooperation among countries to complete specific tasks - such as regional
infrastructure development or cross-border natural resource sharing - generates
some of the benefits of regional integration. Such cooperation can be viewed as a
limited version of regional integration and may occur independently or in the context
of a formal regional integration arrangement. 2
1.3.5 Subsidiarity
Subsidiarity is the concept that a central authority should have a subsidiary function,
performing only those tasks, which cannot be performed effectively at a more
immediate or local level. It is best known as a fundamental principle of European
Union. According to this principle, the EU may only act where action of individual
countries is insufficient (Treaty of Maastricht 1992)3.
The principle of subsidiarity is intended to ensure that decisions are taken as closely
as possible to the citizen and that constant checks are made as to whether action at
Community level is justified in the light of the options available at the national or local
level. Specifically, it is the principle whereby the Union does not take action (except
in the areas which fall within its exclusive competence) unless it is more effective
than action taken at national or local level. It is closely linked to the principles of
proportionality and necessity, which require that any action by the Union should not
go beyond what is necessary to achieve the objectives of the Treaty.
In the context of the PIDA Study, the concept of subsidiarity will be useful when
determining the proper institutional level at which activities take place: for instance
not at the REC level if they can better be handled at the country level, or not at the
AUC level if they are best handled at the REC level.
1.3.6 Continental /regional projects

The concept of continental and regional projects can be approached from
geographical and institutional angles.
From a geographical point of view, continental projects are very large; best justified
on a continental basis and have a continental footprint in terms of market impact.
Ideally, continental institutions (such as the AUC or NEPAD Secretariat) would
1
In Assessing Regional Integration 1, ECA
2
In Assessing Regional Integration 1, ECA
3
In Oxford English Dictionary

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sponsor/impulse the continental projects and play a leading role during the project
cycle. The benefits of the project are spread across a large number of countries (and
RECs). The Trans African Highways or the fibre optic cable around Africa belong to
this category,
Using the same analysis, regional projects would have regional footprints (at least
two countries) with a significant regional or transboundary impact and are best
justifies in a regional or basin-wide context. A REC or a L/RBO would
sponsor/promote/coordinate the project.
Such projects strengthen the integration and development of not only the REC and/or
L/RBO but also of their member countries. The benefits are spread across member
countries of the REC or of the L/RBO. The links and networks are strengthened, the
availability of infrastructure services is increased, trade and the exchange of capital,
goods, services and labour across the REC are expanded promoting sustainable
activities and growth.
The following projects would be considered regional under these assumptions:

highways included in a REC master plan; hydraulic structures (dams and diversions)
with transboundary impacts, international hydro-power facilities, trans-national
electricity grids and ICT networks.
National projects
Projects are national when the decision making process, the financing,
implementation and the operation are carried out by one country.
A substantial portion of national infrastructure investments has regional

characteristics: for instance ports or national networks that once they are linked,
articulated and coordinated across national boundaries create regional networks.
Nevertheless they are not regional to the extent that the decision making process for
each component is purely national.
PIDA study projects
The PIDA Study will analyse regional/continental projects that foster regional and
continental integration and participation of Africa in world trade (PIDA projects).
These will include “soft” and “hard” projects. “Soft” projects concern strengthening
the enabling environment, institutional capacity, policy and regulatory frameworks for
investment in regional and continental infrastructure. “Hard” projects include
investments in civil works and equipment. Each sector infrastructure investment
program will include both types of investments.
The different types of sector specific “hard” are explained in section 3 and
summarised below:
Water:
Investments in physical infrastructure including major dams, irrigation schemes,

flood control structures, intra and inter-basin diversion schemes;

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Energy:
Project requiring multi country cooperation for

 Input: shared river basin for instance or trans country pipeline; or
 Facility: transmission line or pipeline crossing at least one border, plant
straddling borders; or
 Outputs shared among several countries
Large projects, which may affect indirectly regional energy exchanges and trade
Transport:
Projects in the second transport decade for Africa;

Projects in the NEPAD STAP
Projects belonging to the Trans African Highways and to the REC’s priority
networks.
ICT:
Projects that connect Africa to the rest of the world; and

Projects that interconnect African countries.

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2 HORIZONTAL SECTION
2.1 Introduction
The contents of the inception report are described as follows in the TOR (general
TOR section 4.2.4):
A detailed description of tasks to be undertaken, the schedule of activities and
resources allocated to each task;
A detailed identification of data necessary for the analytical work as well as the
data collection strategy;
The proposed analytical frame work to be used in the analysis of current policies
and strategies, the formulation of sector policies and strategies for this study;
The proposed methodology for the analysis of on-going and pipeline programs,
and in particular the definition of stages (milestones) defining their development
stage;
The first outline of the methodology to be used for projections, as well as trends
and factors underpinning the future sector outlook;
The decisions to be made by the client and the proposed associated schedule;
A proposed calendar for field visits, meetings and workshops;
The proposed structure for key reports; and
Any other issue to be brought to the attention of the client in order to facilitate,
monitor and control the Consultant’s work.”
The Consultant agrees that the contents proposed for the Inception Report are
relevant in as much as they mandate the full development of the analytical framework
for the analysis of projects and policies but only the first outline of the methodology
for the projections. The full methodology for the projections will be provided in the
methodological brief to be submitted eleven weeks from beginning of work.
2.2 Objectives of the study
2.2.1 Global objective

The global objective of the study is to contribute to the development of infrastructure
in support of greater regional/continental integration in order to foster poverty
reduction in Africa.
2.2.2 Specific objectives

Establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental
infrastructure in four sectors (Energy, Transport, ICT, and Transboundary Water
Resources), based on a long-term, social, and economic development vision,
strategic objectives, and sector policies;
Establish an infrastructure development programme articulated around priorities
and over the short, medium, and long-term horizons;

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Prepare an implementation strategy and processes including, in particular, the

improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and administrative
processes); a Priority Action Plan; and financing options including measures for
promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in infrastructure
development.
In the Consultant’s view the three specific objectives are relevant. It is noted that
they emphasize the “soft” components of infrastructure development with “hard”
infrastructure included only in one objective.
2.3 Outputs
The PIDA study is a planning and programming study at continental level:
Phase 1 is the diagnosis and in depth analysis phase including:

 Review and situation analysis;
 Establishment of an outlook for the future (corresponding to a needs
assessment and the definition of targets);
 Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional and
continental infrastructure.
Phase 2 is the planning phase leading to the formulation of drafts of a strategic
framework, infrastructure development program and implementation strategy.
This Phase starts with the preparation and holding of sector workshops aimed at
bringing a consensus on the sector targets emerging from the outlook for the
future and on the strategy and plan of action for reaching them.
Phase 3 is the consensus-building phase including the preparation of the final
versions of the strategic framework, infrastructure development program and
implementation strategy.
In accordance with the terms of reference the outputs of the PIDA Study will be as
follows:
Output 1 Planning and monitoring reports
Output 1.1:Inception report

Output 1.2: Monthly reports
Output 2 Phase I:
Output 2.1: Methodological brief on the establishment of the outlook for the future;
Output 2.2: Proceedings of the validation workshop to record the consensus on
the methodology to establish the outlook for the future globally and for the various
sectors;
Output 2.3: Phase I report: diagnosis of the existing situation, sector outlook for
the future, analysis of choices and challenges and outline of the infrastructure
development programme.

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Output 3: Phase II
Output 3.1: briefs for the preparation of sector workshops aimed at a participatory
strategic planning exercise resulting in a consensual strategy and action plan;
Output 3.2: proceedings of the four sector workshops recording the consensus on
the strategy and the action plan as a basis for the planning and programming
exercise;
Output 3.3: Phase II report: draft strategic framework draft infrastructure
development programme and implementation strategy;
Output 4: Phase III:
Output 4.1: Proceeds of the high-level meetings

Output 4.2: Final report (strategic framework, infrastructure development
programme, Implementation strategy and processes)
Output 4.3: Synthesis of the final report
Output 5: other output
Output 5.1: transfer of data

Output 5.2: working documents
2.3.1 Output 1 Planning and monitoring reports
Output 1.1 Inception report.
This report is the inception report due six weeks after start of the study.
Output 1.2 Monthly report
The Consultant proposes that a monthly report (of about 5 pages) be submitted to
the NEPAD Division Manager of the NEPAD Regional Integration and Trade
Department, in replacement of the quarterly report mentioned in the TDR. The
rationale for this proposed change is that it will allow closer monitoring by the Client
of the study’s progress and more regular interaction between the parties.
The monthly report will concisely present
Activities performed during the reporting period;

Team members involved in the activities of the reporting period;
Problems encountered;
Estimate of the progress achieved so far.
The first monthly report will be submitted on August 20th, 2010.

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2.3.2 Output 2: Phase 1 reports
Output 2.1: methodological brief on the establishment of the outlook for the
future
The object of the brief is to present the Consultants’ approach to establishing the
outlook for the future of the various sectors. It will provide the basis for the
projections of demand for infrastructure services over the 2010 - 2040 period with a
focus on the years 2020, 2030 and 20404.
The brief will include two parts.
Part 1
The first part will provide a methodology for developing the macro economic vision
over the period 2010-2040 taking into account population growth projections and
economic prospects integrating available data from official sources (such as UAC,
UNECA, ADB, WB, IMF), the views of the stakeholders and the POE to be discussed
during the kick-off meeting and summarized afterwards.
Part 2
This second part will define and justify the methodology proposed for projecting the
demand for services in each sector on the basis of the macro economic vision.
Output 2.2: Proceedings of the validation workshop
This output will record the conclusions of the validation workshop on the
methodologies to establish the macro economic vision and outlook for the sectors.
Output 2.3 Phase 1 report: Diagnosis and in depth analysis
The scope of Phase 1 includes three major tasks for each sector:
Review and situation analysis including:

 The review and evaluation of continental and regional policies, institutional and
regulatory frameworks
 The review and evaluation of regional infrastructure;
The review of existing infrastructure;
The review of infrastructure under execution or preparation,
The detailed analysis of selected projects including STAP flagship projects;
Establishment of an outlook for the future and analysis of challenges and choices;
Preparation of an outline program for the development of continental and regional
infrastructure.
4 The justification for suggesting changing the planning horizon from the one in the TOR (2015,
2020 and 2040) during discussions with the POE and the PMT in Tunis on June 17th 2010 is given
in section 2.4.2.

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The Phase 1 report will be structured in a cover volume and four sector volumes.
Cross-sector section
In addition to an executive summary and the statement of the macro economic

vision, this report will provide an analysis of the overall constraints affecting the
supply of infrastructure services in support of regional/continental integration and
include sections on:
Institutionalcapacity at the Continental (AUC and NEPAD), regional (REC.

L/RBO) and national levels to:
 Devise targets and strategies, plan and program infrastructure projects in
support of regional integration in a coherent manner;
 Implement projects including finance and supervise the feasibility and
safeguard studies, mobilize financing for the project, acquire land, procure
works, goods and services, supervise implementation;
 Operate and maintain completed infrastructure.
Availability of specific financing for PIDA projects from:
 Domestic sources (internal to Africa such as REC or budget resources, utilities’
internal cash generation, capital markets);
 International sources (such as ODA, capital markets, PPP);
Environmental and climate change aspects; and
Social consideration linked to land acquisition.
Each sector volume will include two parts:
Sector Section
Part 1 Analytical section
The first part will build on the methodological tools agreed at the validation workshop
(outlook for the future) as well as those proposed during the inception phase
(screening of policies and projects). This part will comprise write-ups on:
The finalization of the outlook for the future including projections (targets) for the
horizons 2020, 2030 and 2040 based on the methodological brief validated earlier
at the validation workshop;
The analysis of the challenges facing the sector in Africa and of the options
available to meet them; the options considered will cover the range from “soft”
projects to “hard” projects.
The compilation of regional and continental policies, institutional and regulatory
frameworks (relevant to PIDA projects), the selection of the relevant ones, their
assessment.
The analysis of the regional infrastructure projects (understood as PIDA projects)
including:
 Existing infrastructure and
 Projects under implementation and in the pipeline in order to assess their
performance and contribution to achieving regional and continental policy

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objectives. The projects included would be both “Hard” as well as “soft”
projects.
 A detailed analysis of at least five projects per sector, including STAP flagship
projects.
Part 2: Outline infrastructure development program
This section will present a preliminary outline of the infrastructure development

program resulting form the above analysis including:
Update on the progress of the NEPAD STAP projects;

Identifying any “low hanging” project, which could be implemented in the short
term, in particular in terms of “soft” programs;
2.3.3 Output 3: Phase 2 reports
Output 3.1 Briefs for the sector workshop
The briefs will be issues focused documents including:
Description of the outlook of the future and the needs indicating the potential
impact of constraints such as financing, institutional capacity;
Challenges and choices;
Options (various strategies to reach the targets) and multi criteria analysis
The sector workshops will be the venue for consulting with each sector’s
stakeholders at the political (decision making), technical and operational levels on the
findings of Phase 1 (needs, targets), define a strategy and an action plan to be later
articulated in programs and projects. The brief will serve to shape the debate.
Output 3.2 Proceedings of the sector workshops
This output will record the strategic consensus (strategies and action plans to reach
the targets) as well as possible disagreements emerging from the sector workshop.
The consensus will be the basis of the planning and programming work of Phase 2.
Output 3.3 Phase 2 report: draft final report
The Phase 2 report is the final draft of the PIDA study containing the three outputs
required by the terms of reference. It will include four sector reports and a draft
executive summary.
Draft executive summary:
This will be a 15-20 pages document presenting the draft of Study’s main findings (on
the three specific objectives) as well as recommendations on how to ensure the
sustainability of PIDA as a major contributor to regional integration in Africa with a
place in the lending plans of the major financiers and a firm institutional grounding.
It will also pay attention to overarching aspects related to:

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Recommended policy proposals;

Potential for financing PIDA projects;
Institutional capacity for implementing PIDA projects.
Sector reports
Each sector report will include three sections corresponding to the specific objectives
of the study as they shape up after the analytical work of Phase 1 and the exchanges
with the stakeholders in the sector workshops.
Draft strategic framework including prioritized proposals in the sector to amend

regional and continental policies, regulations and institutional arrangements;
Draft infrastructure development program including:
 Prioritized list of PIDA projects, soft and hard, with costs and timing,
recommended implementation and operating arrangements over the three time
horizons (2020, 2030, and 2040);
 The proposed first Priority Action Plan (PAP) including:
Projects committed, financing legally in place-
Programs ready to go, feasibility completed positively, EIA and mitigation plan
available, social and institutional aspects dealt with;
New short gestation projects (mainly soft projects to build institutional capacity
and prepare the next PAP and possibly hard investments for the ICT sector)
 A detailed analysis of selected projects including STAP flagship projects
Draft implementation arrangements for the sector including sector specific
proposals for:
 Facilitating the financing of projects;
 Strengthening the institutional arrangements for:
Project preparation, implementation and operation;
Replenishing the PAP.
2.3.4 Output 4 : Phase III Report
Output 4.1: Proceedings of the high-level meetings
These meetings (with the RECs and other stakeholders) aim at internalizing the
recommendations of the draft final report at the highest levels. The proceedings of
these meetings will be recorded and integrated in the final report
Output 4.2: PIDA Study final report
This final output will be the final version the executive summary and of the sector
reports, which have been initially produced for Phase 1 and have been continuously
improved during the Phase 2 and Phase 3 consultation processes.
The structure of the final report will be that of the original report.

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Output 4.3: Synthesis of the final report
This will be the updated version of the executive summary of the draft final report.
2.3.5 Output 5: other

During the study, the Consultant will devote a major effort to data collection from the
various sources. This data together with the information produced during the study
(methodological notes, working papers, GIS data and models) will be stored in an
electronic documentation library.
As per the TOR, on completion of the work the documentation library together with
the working documents and other relevant information will be made available to the
AfDB.
2.3.6 Recommendations on the time line

On the basis of their work on the inception report the consultants propose a
modification of time line to lengthen Phase 1 till the end of January 2011; it should be
noted that the six weeks in August-September 2010 may not be very productive
since they are vacation time and correspond also with the Ramadan period; the study
would still be completed in 18 months.
The resulting time line would be:
 Submission of inception report: July 5th 2010
 Kick Off workshop: Week of 29th July
 Phase 1: Validation Workshop: 23rd September 2010
 Submission of Phase 1 report: 25th January 2010
 Phase 2: four strategic sector workshops: 15th April2011
 Phase 2: report: 15th July 2011
 Phase 3 report: 20th November 2011
2.4 Specific methodological points
2.4.1 Analytical framework, causal analysis

The methodological outline for the analysis of the limiting factors annexed to the
Program Concept Note is a reference for the work of the Consultants in assessing
the success or failure of existing policies and projects. It is congruent with the best
practices by the major donors5.
The AUC Strategic Plan 2009-2012, in its vision for Africa emphasises the “principles
of subsidiarity, complementarity with other Organs, Member States and RECs; close
coordination and cooperation with the RECs; coherence of policies and programmes”
The Consultant will also refer to the international consensus on aid effectiveness,
emerging from the Shanghai Conference on Poverty of 2004, the Declaration of Paris
5
The consultant will not carry out a full causal analysis of policies or projects, which is
beyond the scope of the PIDA Study.

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of 2005 and the Accra Agenda of 2009. It gives weight to the principles of political
commitment, ownership, harmonisation and alignment (hereafter referred to as “the
principles”).
Even though the principles refer to national projects they are also largely relevant to
regional ones. In the regional context, they take on a new dimension: they do not
affect the relations between donors and beneficiary countries, but those between:
Continental and regional institutions;

Continental/regional institutions and member countries; and
Member countries themselves.
The principles provide a prism to assess the causes of success and failures of
existing policies and projects, as well as to make proposals for policy changes or
recommendations on projects to be included in the infrastructure development
program as well as on implementation arrangements. In this respect on
The figure below summarizes the steps between a policy and an operational PIDA
project (let’s call it “the chain”) as well as the institutions having a role at each stage
(milestone) of the chain: the Heads of States, the Departments of continental (AUC,
NEPAD) and regional organizations (RECs, L/RBOs, Corridors, Power Pools and
other technical institutions), of national governments and entities (administrations and
utilities).
The three specific objectives of the PIDA Study are also mapped, as they affect:
The vision, policies and strategies (strategic framework),

The investment programme and the projects (infrastructure development
programme).
Financing and technical capacity (implementation arrangements).
The upper half of the figure corresponds to the policy aspects and the lower half to
the project cycle. The upper half concerns exclusively “soft” components. The
investments program and the project cycle in the lower half concern a combination of
“hard” and “soft” components.

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The diagram highlights:
Three areas of overlapping responsibilities (and potential lack of coherence):

policies, strategies and investment programmes; the potential for lack of
coherence is increased in the cases where two or more regional organisations
(RECs, L/RBOs, or other technical institutions) overlap.
The multiple roles of the Heads of State, leaders simultaneously of the AU and
NEPAD, the REC and their Governments; and
The uneven distribution of financing and technical capability between the
Governments and the regional institutions.
2.4.2 Screening of policies and strategies

The purpose of this section is to propose a methodology to screen the policies
affecting PIDA projects.
It should be noted that the Study will not “evaluate” the policies in the accepted sense
of an OECD/DAC evaluation. The Study staffing is only sufficient to review of t of
whether the policy is effectively applied and whether it is supporting PIDA projects.
The objective is to understand the causes why some policies and institutional
frameworks concerning PIDA projects have been more conducive to economic
integration and successful than others.
Each sector section will elaborate its approach to policy selection and assessment.
Policies considered
The Study will review policies and regulations whether they are formally approved or
not, such as:
Formally approved:
 By the Heads of State or the relevant ministers at their meetings of continental
or regional institutions; (for instance the Yamoussoukro declaration for air
transport)
 At the REC/RBO level as legal instruments (directives)
Less formally approved:
 At the corridors level for transports or at the Power Pool level for energy;
 In bilateral agreements between countries and IFI. Once several countries
have adopted the same recommendation by the IFI, it can become a regional
policy (for instance Road Funds).
National policies and regulations will be considered, to the extend that in a bottom up
process:
They affect traffic or trade with neighbouring countries (for instance transit fees on
ITC traffic from landlocked country)
They can inspire (serve as a model for) regional policies and regulations

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Policies and institutional framework
The TOR rightly put together policies, strategies and regulatory and institutional
frameworks. These aspects are linked: policies need to be translated in strategies
then in plans and programs and finally in projects that are implemented and
operated. The link between a policy and a functioning project is the institutional
arrangement underpinned by an adequate regulatory framework.
As explained above, in the Consultant’s view, the consistency of the principles (or
lack of) (political commitment, ownership and alignment) along the “chain” is the key
to the success (or the failure) of continental/regional policies. This consistency is
strengthened to the extent that the policies result from a bottom up consultation and
consensus building process and not from a top down decision.
The analysis will also look into the two keys factors that explain the influence of
institutions along the chain, namely technical and financial capacity, as shown in the
following chart:
Screening of regional infrastructure limiting factors

AUC & NEPAD
Objectives and Strategies
Regional policies for infrastructures

• institutional and legal framework RECs
• objectives RBOs
• expected results
Ownership and Alignment of Regional /RBOs Policies Multicriteria matrix

• Alignment of Regional Policies with AUC, NEPAD limiting
• Agreement on regional strategies by Heads of States factors
• Ownership and transposition into national policies analysis
• Issue of regional regulations
Technical management of Regional Infrastructures institutional

• Stakeholders participation at regional level ownership
• Regional Infrastructure specific communication coordination
• Strategic Planning and M&E systems at regional level regulatory
• Implementation arrangements & procedures capacities
planning
Funding Regional Infrastructures financing
• Resource mobilisation strategy at regional level
• Adequate funding for RECs managed activities
From the review of policies, the Consultant will:
Identify best practices, successful and failed policies;

Gain insights in the technical and financial capacity of REC and other regional
organization in the “chain”
2.4.3 Screening of projects

The Consultant will review a set of PIDA projects, both existing and under
implementation or preparation including STAP flagship projects. Again this will not

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be an evaluation in the OECD/DAC acceptation, but rather the analysis of the limiting
factors for their success or failure.
Each sector section explains the selection of projects to be reviewed and the
proposed methodology.
Project cycle and milestones
The table below summarises the cycle for a regional project and the institutions
involved.
The table below summarises the milestones of the project cycle:
Step in the project cycle Milestone

Project identification Pre feasibility report
Project preparation Feasibility report
Project funding Financing agreements
Beginning of project implementation Award of major contracts
End of implementation Commissioning of project
Project evaluation and monitoring M&E report
Project operation and maintenance
Particular hurdles for regional projects
Continental/regional projects face several specific difficulties even when there is

consistency across institutions on the principles. The first is that each country and
the REC itself may have different perceptions on the detailed options for the same
regional project.
The second difficulty is that generally speaking donors’ financing instruments are
geared to national projects. As a result regional projects are often financed under
agreements with each participating country with cross effectiveness conditionality
and implemented individually by each government concerned through the national
budget and according to national procedures (for procurement for instance). This is
a well-documented source of complexity and delays.
The third difficulty is that regional/continental projects usually require difficult to reach
agreements among the countries concerned on common specifications, regulations
as well as construction, operating and maintenance arrangements.
2.4.4 Outlook for the future

In accordance with the general TOR (section 4.2.6) the work on the outlook for the
future will take into account a range of topics, which will also be discussed with the
participants (POE members and stakeholders) during the kick off meeting:
“The key issues relating to the potential contribution of infrastructure to African

integration objectives; the constraints encountered in infrastructure development
in its integrative role; and any lessons that can be learned from experience in
other continents.

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The major factors, which are likely to determine Africa’s potential needs for
regional and continental infrastructure up to 2030, e.g. growth paths,
demographics, technological trends, emergence of development poles in Africa
and the world, changes in international transport routes, economic trends, impact
of climate change.
The major infrastructure development challenges (regional and continental) in
terms of land-locked countries, economic integration, growth, and poverty
reduction.
The challenges that regional and continental African stakeholders must overcome
in order to implement a bold regional and continental infrastructure development
policy, e.g. enabling environment; financing; budgets and trade-offs between
national, regional and continental projects; the role of supranational bodies, sector
governance.”
Macro economic vision
Data sources
Data on past economic performance are provided in documents from various

sources: the AfDB, the IMF, the WB and the UN. Many of the series of interest go
back to the 60’s.
Projections are more difficult to come by, with the exception of the projection of the
population, available up to 2050 from UN source. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook
2010 contains projections of macro economic variables such as GDP up to 2015.
Institution Publication actual year projections Notes

AfDB/AU/ECA Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV 2007, some 2008 none
AfDB/AU/ECA African Statistical Yearbook 2010 2009 none data by countries
AfDB/OECD/ECA African Economic Outlook 2010 2007, some 2009 2011 data by countries
AU / ECA Economic Report on Africa 2010 2008 or 2009 2010 or 2011 data by countries
WB AICD, a time for transformation 2007, 2008 2015 for some information
WB African Development Indicators 2010 2006, 2007 or 2008 none data by countries
WB World Development Indicators 2007 none data by countries
IMF World Economic Outlook 2010 2009 2011 2015 for the GDP
IMF World Economic Outlook 2010 - Africa 2009 2011 2015 in countries' Article IV
UN World Population Prospects 2008 revision 2010 2050 Projections for every 5 years
Time frame
The TOR propose that the outlook for the future cover the time horizons 2015 for the
short term, 2020 for the medium term and 2030 for the long term.
The suitability of this timeframe for the study was discussed during the meeting with
the POE and the PMT on June 17, 2010. Indeed it appears that the same time frame
is not relevant to the four sectors: TWR development takes place on a longer term
than ICT or even roads.
To make the short-term horizon relevant to all sectors except for ITC, it was agreed
during the meeting with the POE and the PMT to extend it to 2020 and extend

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correspondingly the medium term (to 2030) and the long term (to 2040). The ICT
would consider a time frame of 2012, 2015 and 20206.
Past trends
Past trends will be examined for Africa as a whole for the period 1980-2010. For
comparison purposes, the same trends will be examined for several larger sized
economies in other continents that have performed well, such as India, Malaysia and
Brazil.
Data concerned would include the Gross Domestic Investment (GDI), capital inflows
(ODA and FDI), incremental capital output ration (ICOR), GDP per capita and volume
of exports.
The chart below illustrates the trend analysis that will be done at the beginning of
phase 1:
Analysis of past development trends 1980-2010
AFRICA (1) Trends

RECs social
and indicators
economic ratios
trends GIS
Other Regions (2) Policy

Data
lessons
India limiting
Brazil factors learned
Malaysia analysis
Some GDP indicators for Sub Saharan Africa, India, Brazil and Malaysia are
summarized below:
GDP constant, average annual growth rate GDP per capita (constant at 2000 USD prices)
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2008 1980-2008 1980 1990 2000 2008
S-S Africa 1,87% 2,27% 3,99% 2,90% 587 531 510 618
India 5,55% 5,46% 5,92% 6,06% 229 318 453 718
Brazil 1,55% 2,54% 2,85% 2,48% 3 539 3 355 3 701 4 448
Malaysia 5,98% 7,11% 4,02% 6,11% 1 919 2 608 4 030 5 151
Source: World Bank, World Data Bank
6
As will be seen in the ICT sector section, actions with important beneficial impact can be
taken in the very short term.

INCEPTION REPORT
Projections
Scenarios
For the purpose of projecting GDP, two scenarios will be considered based on the
data of the table above:
A “business as usual” scenario reproducing the performance of Africa over the
1980-2010 period; under this scenario the average rate of GDP growth would be
about 3%. This compares with a forecast rate of population growth of 2.5% and
would lead to only to a slow rate of poverty reduction (plus 15% cumulative over
30 years);
A "stretch" scenario with an annual rate of growth comparable to that achieved by
the comparator countries (India and Malaysia) over the 1980-2010 period or 6%
corresponding to a tripling of per capita GDP over the period.
It is of course possible to imagine other scenarios. A scenario less than 3% would
correspond to a constant impoverishment of Africa and would not be useful from the
analytical point of view. A higher scenario may be overly optimistic.
The “stretch” scenario will be the reference for the Study”.
Modelling tool
The macroeconomic projections will be prepared for each scenario using an
economic simulation tool.
The input to the simulation tool is the set of data gathered, analysed and validated in
the trend analysis. The projections of population and the expected evolution of
growth centres (such as large irrigated agriculture areas, growth of the major urban
centres, and development of mining and industrial activities) will be taken into
account in the simulation.
As an output, the simulation tool will provide the macro economic framework, which
will be used in the sector models for estimating the demand for infrastructure under
the different scenarios.

INCEPTION REPORT
Outlook for the future 2010- 2040
Scenarios
Potential Growth centres
GDP growth 3%
GDP growth 6 %
GIS
Data
Economic simulation tool
Demand for infrastructure
The Consultant will attempt to capture the possible divergent evolution of individual
countries (or group of countries) by:
Using the projections made by the IMF in the World Economic Outlook for the
projections up to 2015;
Basing the projections to the medium term horizon (2020) on AICD’s country
typology (resource rich, non-fragile low-income, fragile low-income and middle
income)7;
Establishing the long-term outlook on the continuation of the medium term trends.
Derivation of outlook for sectors
As explained in more details in the sector sections below, both econometric and
pragmatic approaches will be considered to establish the outlook for the future.
The econometric approach would link demand to the main macro economic
variables (for instance GDP and population growth). It will be constrained by
external aspects such as the availability of finance, environmental and social
aspects.
The pragmatic approach would be based on assumptions on access rates or on
connectivity.
In broad terms the sector approach will be:
For the energy (power) sector, the correlation between GDP and population
growth is well documented and accepted. The overall demand would be the
aggregation of the national projections based on national growth rates.
For the transport sector, econometric modelling is also commonly used. It can be
complemented by a targeted approach (for instance link all capital cities).
7
Africa’s Infrastructure, A Time for Transformation, World Bank, 2009, page 51

INCEPTION REPORT
For the ICT sector, the demand will be projected on the basis of assumptions
concerning the broadband access rate.
For the transboundary water sector, the demand of water for food will be based on
FAO projections and on the assessment of the irrigation potential taking into
account water scarcity.
2.5 Cross cutting aspects
2.5.1 Financing and PPP

As shown in the AICD study, the bulk of the actual annual financing for national
infrastructure (45,3 billion dollars) is provided for 30 billion dollars 8 by domestic
sources (budget, local capital markets and internal cash generation). The rest comes
from private or external sources (PPP, ODA or non-OECD financiers).
Compared to an annual spending requirement of 93 billion, and taking into account

the potential efficiency gains for 17 billion per year, the residual annual gap (not
financed) amounts to 31 billion dollars.
Since the consumers and the private sector are expected to finance largely ICT, the
financing gap is significant for the three other sectors, especially energy.
In all likelihood the financing of PIDA projects will come from the same sources.
The Study will examine the conditions for:
Improving mobilisation from domestic sources in particular by increasing the credit

worthiness of markets (in energy and transport);
Promoting the use of PPP for selected projects of potential interest to the private
sector with adequate PPP legal and regulatory frameworks;
Mobilising specific resources for regional projects at the national and REC L/RBO
level (own resources or scaling up the regional development banks such as the
ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development).
2.5.2 Environment and climate change

With exception of “soft” projects, most PIDA projects will be in category 1 according
to the AfDB’s policies.
The Consultant will not carry out environmental and social assessments (ESA)
(either on a project or a sector basis). They will be mindful of potential environment
and social impacts when placing various projects in the development program.
As explained below in the sector section for energy, climate change will be taken into
account in the preparation and analysis of possible low emission scenarios.
8
Detailed in AICD: 20,4 for operation and maintenance, and 9,4 for capital expenditure from
the public sector.

INCEPTION REPORT
2.6 Detailed description of horizontal tasks
2.6.1 Preparation of the PIDA Study workshops

The Consultant will assist the Client in preparing, organizing and implementing the
workshops by:
Assuring all necessary logistical arrangements;

Proposing the structure of the workshop (notably plenary and regional sessions)
and a method of facilitation. The proposal will be discussed and validated with the
Client;
Preparing the detailed agenda;
Presenting briefs, and taking part in workshop proceedings, especially by
clarifying the assumptions chosen during discussions and further analyses to be
made consequently;
Contributing to workshop proceedings, especially by ensuring that discussions
effectively lead to the formulation of conclusions relevant to the strategic
framework (including sector policies), infrastructure development program, and
implementation strategy and processes;
Playing the role of the facilitator and/or advising the Client on such a role in order
to structure the conduct of the workshops and summarize the various conclusions.
2.6.2 Phase III
Support to securing ownership
The Consultant will support the Client during the Phase III consensus building
activities by:
Assisting the client in preparing meetings with the RECs (and other stakeholders
as necessary) either on a sector specific or cross sector basis;
Presenting the drafts from Phase II to implementers (draft strategic framework,
draft infrastructure development programme including the PAP, and
implementation strategies;
Preparation of the final report
Under the guidance of the Client, the Consultant will prepare the final report taking
into account:
Comments by the RECs and other stakeholders;

The conclusions of the analyses prepared during the PIDA Study.
Transferring data
Finally the Consultant will transfer the data collected, processed and analysed during
the Study to the Client including:

INCEPTION REPORT
Raw Data collected during the Study, which will be transferred as a

documentation library with Internet access;
Models used in the sector studies9; and
GIS files in appropriate format.
2.7 Other horizontal aspects
2.7.1 Data collection

The sector sections describe in detail the status of data collection under the PIDA
Study, which is briefly summarized here.
Data collected to date
The data collected to date (see Annex 3 for the list of documents consulted) come
from several sources:
AICD
The reference documents supplied by the Client

Consultant’s own network
AICD is an innovative knowledge program funded by the WB to improve
understanding of Africa's infrastructure situation. It has carried out an unprecedented
data collection effort in Sub Saharan Africa (excluding North Africa) in the main
infrastructure sectors, including energy, ICT, transport, irrigation, and water and
sanitation.
The Consultants was given access to the entire AICD data available and will use it as
a starting point for its data collection process. However, the review of the data during
the Inception Phase has brought forth the fact that AICD information incomplete in
the ICT and TWR. In the transport sector, international road transport data is not
available in AICD.
The Consultant has a track record of studies in the infrastructure sector. He has
managed and successfully completed a large number of studies in the sector in the
past years. The PIDA Study will benefit from this experience and the Consultant will
refer to the data collected in its previous studies. Through his past experience, the
Consultant has worked together with several RECs. These contacts will be used to
facilitate data collection.
Missing data collection strategy
The missing data will be collected as indicated in the sector sections below and will
include
Visits to the RECs and other sector Institutions;

Internet search; and
9
taking into account the copyright issues

INCEPTION REPORT
Collection of raw data by the Consultant.

The Consultant will visit the RECs and Sector Institutions during Phase I of the PIDA
Study. These visits have several objectives, one of which is to collect data. This data
collection process through RECs will give access to crucial information while creating
a spirit of trust and cooperation between the Consultant and the regional institutions.
To facilitate this process, all RECs and Institutions will be visited at an early stage
and a questionnaire/list of required documents would be sent before the Consultant
visits.
International institutions and/or specialised entity (IMF, WB for example) make their
data available to the public through Internet. Internet search will therefore represent a
large source of information. The Consultant will pay special attention to the quality
and accuracy of the data collected on the web. Priority will be given to official sources
The inception work has demonstrated that some data are missing, in the sense that
they are not available in AICD (for instance AICD provides no North Africa data), at
the RECs nor other regional organisations. This is the case of trans border road
transport or Internet traffic. In these cases special data collection efforts will be
organised. As described below, the transport team will collect data by organising
field visits while ICT plans to mobilise the regulators via the RECs.
2.7.1 Resource Planning
Work plan and time line

INCEPTION REPORT
The table below aggregates the work plans for the four sector studies into an overall
work plan.
Resources and deployment
Team and expertise
The table given in Annex N°3 presents expertise of the all PIDA Consulting
members.
On the basis of their work on the inception report the Consultant propose a
modification of the staffing in the following manner:
Hire a GIS expert for 5 man months;
Hire a macro economist for 2 man months

INCEPTION REPORT
The man months would be by reallocating from the Infrastructure Expert position and
the Institutional and Development Economist presented in the Consultant technical
proposition. These reallocations do not affect the overall budget, either on honoraria
or reimbursable expenses.
Team organization
2.7.2 Quality control

The Consultant is committed to providing high quality services. This quality results
form know-how acquired over years of experience using well-established procedures
to monitor and evaluate our activity and ensure high quality reporting.
Report standardization
The Consultant will use the report format agreed with the Client. We also remain
flexible to adapt our reporting according to the Client’s recommendations and specific
requirements.
All the deliverables will undergo a strict quality control process. Each report will be
reviewed at headquarters, discussed, revised and formatted before it is submitted to
the Client.
Respect of deadlines
The Consultant is committed to submitting reports in due time. Each expert will be
required to produce the expected reports according to the schedule presented above.
Continuous communication between the experts and headquarters
A permanent contact between the Experts and SOFRECO Led Consortium is

ensured through the presence on the ground of the Deputy Project Director, Hichame
Selmaoui who provides the follow-up of main achievements, problems met, and
discussing on the necessary adjustments.

INCEPTION REPORT
Progress indicators
These have been defined to be able to have at anytime a clear picture of the project
situation, especially in terms of respect of the agreed schedule, planned manpower
utilization, agreed deliverables and deadlines for deliverables.
The monitoring of these progress indicators, gathered through MS Project, enable

the Deputy Project Director and the Programme Leader to follow-up the progress of
project implementation and to detect any risk of deviation on time.
2.7.3 Geographical Information System

The study is a spatial planning study and as such will collect and analyze large
amounts of data and information best visualized on maps through the use of a
Geographical Information System (GIS). A GIS can integrate and relate any data with
a spatial component. This allows to view, understand, question, interpret, and
visualize data in many ways that reveal relationships, patterns, and trends. In this
sense it becomes an analytical tool.
The AICD project of the World Bank has collected a lot of GIS data (in the format of
ArcGIS shapefiles), which have been made available to the study team. A multi-
sector GIS, compatible with the AICD GIS, will be developed, using the widely used
ArcGIS software.
This task requiring a specialised expertise, the Consultant proposes to add a GIS
specialist to its team, by reallocating 5 man months from the Infrastructure Expert
position presented in the technical proposal.
GIS data will be used not only for visualization on thematic maps to be used for
communication with the Client and stakeholders, but also and most importantly as an
analytical tool.
2.7.4 Communications
The Consultant sees open and transparent communications with all the stakeholders
as a priority.
Of particular importance is the continuous interaction with the RECs and the sector
institutions such as L/RBOs and the technical institutions (such as Power Pools and
Corridors).
The sector sections below present how intensive and regular the interaction between
the Consultant and the RECs and sector agencies will be. The Consultant expects
that these contacts will facilitate the consensus building activities of the Study.
2.7.5 Risk assessment

The main risks affecting the study concern:
Availability and quality of data
The Study will rely on data to be collected both at the sector and at the macro
economic level. The better the data the better the quality of the Study out put.

INCEPTION REPORT
Quality information availability is a pervasive issue in Africa. In this respect the PIDA
Study will take full advantage of the work carried out by AICD.
A related problem concerns data comparability: the major international organizations

have different definitions of Africa: the AfDB considers the whole continent while the
World Bank’s Africa Region does not include North Africa; similarly the IMF’s
African Department does not include Egypt or Libya. As a result the data from
different sources may not be comparable: an evident illustration is the AICD data,
which does not include North Africa.
Difficulty to get consensus among the various stakeholders on draft proposals

for the strategic framework, the infrastructure development programme and
the implementation arrangements.
The PIDA Study in Phase II will define priorities among all candidate projects on a
consensual basis with stakeholders and make proposals for the components of the
strategic framework and the implementation arrangements. Disagreements might
arise between regional/continental bodies’ (AUC, RECS, Corridors, Power Pools and
River basin Authorities) view of priority and the one emerging from the Consultants’
analysis.
Delay in approval of Study reports
The difficulty in reaching consensus may lead to delays in the approval of the
Consultant‘s reports and lead to delays in the completion of the study.
These are exogenous risks seen form the PIDA Consulting Team that the Consultant
cannot mitigate.

INCEPTION REPORT
ENERGY SECTION
Consortium SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 41

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ENERGY SECTOR............................................................................... 1
1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES .......................................... 1
1.1 Background of Energy Sector in Africa ................................................. 1
1.2 Challenges of the Energy Sector in Africa ............................................. 5
1.3 Responding to the challenges ........................................................... 7
2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF PIDA
ENERGY STUDY .........................................................................10
2.1 Specific objectives ....................................................................... 10
2.2 Sectoral Objectives ...................................................................... 10
2.3 Time horizon considered ................................................................ 10
2.4 Expected Outputs of the Study......................................................... 11
3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH ...................................13
3.1 Data needs and Data collection strategy ............................................. 13
3.2 Tools to be developed ................................................................... 18
3.2.1 Score Card of Energy sector institutional readiness for regional projects at
country and REC levels................................................................................18
3.2.2 The long term Regional Investment Plan......................................................19
3.2.3 The Regional Financing Equilibrium model ..................................................20
3.3 Interaction with Stakeholders .......................................................... 21
4. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE UNDERTAKEN........................22
4.1 Task 1.1. Review and situation analysis of regional and continental
policies and strategies................................................................... 22
4.1.1 Task 1.1.1 Analysis of Policies and Strategies .............................................22
4.1.2 Task 1.1.2 Assessment of the level of achievement of policy objectives.......23
4.1.3 Task 1.1.3 Causal analysis of level of achievement......................................23
4.2 Task 1.2 Review and situation analysis of regional infrastructure for
Energy. .................................................................................... 23
4.2.1 Task 1.2.1: Define a standardized template .................................................24
4.2.2 Task 1.2.2 Review of existing infrastructures ...............................................24
4.2.3 Task 1.2.3 Inventory of infrastructures under execution or preparation ........24
4.2.4 Task 1.2.4 Detailed analysis of selected successful/failed regional energy
sector investment .........................................................................................25
4.3 Task 1.3 Establishment of the outlook and program for the future
and identification of Challenges ....................................................... 25
4.3.1 Task 1.3.1 Initial vision and scenarios ..........................................................26
4.3.2 Task 1.3.2 Completing data collection for programming ...............................26
4.3.3 Task 1.3.3 Preparing alternative investment programs for the selection of
preferred scenarios ......................................................................................27
4.3.4 Task 1.3.4 Preparing the outlines of programs for regional energy trade
facilitation and capacity building ...................................................................27
4.3.5 Task 1.3.5 Analysis of choices and challenges for Regional Investment, trade
facilitation and capacity building programs ...................................................28
4.4 Task 2.1 Formulation of the Strategic Framework .................................. 28
4.4.1 Task 2.1.1 Drafting Outline on Strategic Framework ....................................28
4.4.2 Task 2.1.2 Consultation on Outline...............................................................28
4.4.3 Task 2.1.3 Drafting the Strategic Framework ...............................................29
4.5 Task 2.2 Formulation of the Energy Regional Investment Program ............... 29
4.5.1 Task 2.2.1 Preparation of an Outline Program for the Development of
Regional and Continental Energy Infrastructure ...........................................29
4.5.2 Task 2.2.2 Consultation on Outline Regional Energy Program .....................30
4.5.3 Task 2.2.3 Preparation of a Draft Program for the development of Regional
and Continental Energy infrastructure ..........................................................30
4.6 Task 2.3 Formulation of a draft implementation strategy and
processes .................................................................................. 30
4.6.1 Task 2.3.1 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy .........31
4.6.2 Task 2.3.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation processes......31
4.6.3 Task 2.3.3 Integration of Phase II report and presentation ...........................32
5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE ...........................................................32
6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT..................................................34
6.1 Team and expertise...................................................................... 34
6.2 Team organization ....................................................................... 34
6.3 Task assignments ......................................................................... 35
INCEPTION REPORT/ ENERGY SECTION
ENERGY SECTOR
1.BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

1.1 Background of Energy Sector in Africa
A region with a considerable primary energy potential. Africa accounts for nearly
8.6% of the world oil reserves (2008), although unequally distributed (57 billions
barrels in Northern Africa; 38 in Western Africa and 14 in Central Africa), and its
production (10 million barrel/day) represent nearly 12% of the world oil production,
but it has less than 4% of world’s refining capacity. Over 90% of the oil production is
from a few countries (Algeria, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Chad, Egypt,
Sudan and Libya). Recent discoveries occurred in Ghana, Uganda and Mauritania.
Oil Imports and Exports for Africa by Region, 2006 (1000 barrel/day)
Crude Crude Product* Product*
Exports Imports Exports Imports
North Africa 2,721 179 615 178
West Africa 4,706 68 123 234
East & Southern Africa 385 514 22 176
TOTAL WORLD 39,836 39,836 14,988 14,988
* Products: Petroleum product derivatives.
Data Source: BP (2008).
The situation is similar for natural gas of which the continent holds 8% of the world
total reserves (mainly in Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria) and accounts for approximately
6% of total world production.
Africa has a huge hydropower potential estimated at 1000 billion kWh / year, of which
only 8% are used. The continent has also 6% of total world coal reserves (mainly in
Southern Africa and Botswana). The renewable energy potential (wind, solar and
biomass, but also geothermal) is under-exploited, and only few countries are actively
working to develop it.

Mainly in:
8.6% of world reserves Northern Africa
OIL RESERVES
Western Africa
(African reserves grown by over 25%)
Central Africa
Mainly:
Algeria
12% of world production Nigeria
Egypt
OIL PRODUCTION
(38 countries are net oil importers) Sudan
Chad
Eq. Guinea
Libya
Mainly in :
8% of world reserves Nigeria
GAS RESERVES
Algeria
Egypt
Mainly:
Nigeria
GAS PRODUCTION 6% of world production
Algeria
Egypt
6% of world reserves Mainly in:
COAL
(over 95% in South Africa alone) Southern Africa
But:
HYDROPOWER Potential : 1trillion kWh / year
Only 8% used
But:
RENEWABLE Huge potential
Under exploited
The population growth induced a significant increase of energy demand and in most
countries the consumption continues to rise at rates faster than that of GDP. Africa
accounts for about 15% of the world’s population, but it consumes only 3% of global
commercial energy. The 2007 final energy consumption of Africa is characterized by
the big share of biomass (57%), and the large part of the household consumption
(64%) compared to Industry and Commercial consumption.
With 3% of the world’s commercial energy consumption, more than half of African
population has not access to electricity and use kerosene or candles for lighting.
According to UPDEA (Union of Producer and Distributors of Electricity in Africa), the
annual consumption of electricity was estimated at 488 billions kWh (less than half
the African installed hydro-power annual potential) from which Sub-Sahara accounts
66.7%.
Africa’s natural gas consumption in 1965 was 1 billion cubic meters and increased to
75.8 billion cubic meters in 2006, representing about 2.6% of world consumption.
Nearly half of domestic gas demand comes from the industry sector; two third of
petroleum products are consumed by the transport sector and more than half of the
electricity is consumed by the households.

Commercial energy consumption 3% of world’s consumption

Biomass consumption 57% of the final energy consumption
Household energy consumption 64% of the final energy consumption
Less than half of the installed hydro-power annual potential
Electricity consumption
More than half is consumed by households and services
1
1767 kWh/year in Southern Africa
2
952 kWh/year in Northern Africa
532 kWh/year at continental level
Electricity consumption / capita 3
155 kWh/year in Western Africa
4
151 kWh/year in Central Africa
5
65 kWh/year in Eastern Africa
Continental average: 29%
Northern Africa: rural: 85% ; urban: 95%

Electrification rate Southern Africa: rural: 10% ; urban: 64%
Western Africa: rural: 2% ; urban: 66%
Continental level: rural: 14%; urban: 54%
Central Africa: rural: 1% ; urban: 21%
Eastern Africa: rural: 1% ; urban: 34%
Gas consumption Half of domestic consumption is used by the industry sector
Petroleum products consumption Two third are consumed by the transport sector
NIGERIA ALONE COULD MEET THE POWER NEEDS OF WEST AFRICA

Nigeria is gradually trying to develop a regional market for its gas. The government is working
on a plan to build about 600km of new gas pipeline to Benin, Togo, and Ghana. The
governments of these four West African nations agreed in 1995 to build the pipeline, which,
with the existing pipeline, would stretch about 960 km. This pipeline project, according to
World Bank studies, could save West African countries that would importing the gas about
$500 billion in primary energy costs over 20 years. It will also contribute to the long-desired
economic integration of the region. Nigeria is potentially capable of fueling the power needs of
the whole of West Africa.
Source: “Oil and Gas in Africa” Joint Study by the African Development Bank and the African
Union; 2009
An under-served market by world standards. The electricity consumption per

inhabitant was 532 kWh/year, with large disparities between the regions (1767 kWh
1
Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of South Africa (RSA), Zambia,
Zimbabwe.
2
Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Libya
3
Benin, Burkina Faso, Cap Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania,
Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Togo
4
Angola, Burundi, DR of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe and Chad
5
Burundi, DRC, Djibouti, Eritrea, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda

in South; 952 kWh in North; 155 kWh in West; 151 kWh in Central Africa and only 65
kWh in East). According to "Scenario for Increasing Access to Electric Power in
Africa by 2030", the electrification rate average was 24% for the continent, but vary
from 14% in rural areas to 54% in urban areas. In Northern Africa these rates are
respectively 85% and 95%; in Southern 10% and 64%; in Western 2% and 66%; in
Central 1% and 21% and in Eastern 1% and 34%. A number of the countries are
facing power shortages and rationing.
Graph 1 Electricity consumption per year per capita in Africa
Graph 3 Final Consumption of Energy in Africa
Considerable needs for electricity. An indicative generating capacities forecast by

2030 provided by AfDB, shows that installed power capacity shall increase from 153
GW to 280 GW over 2007-2030.

Graph 4 Power generation capacity needs 2007-2030
Based on this figures, the total investment requirement to implement AfDB scenario
for universal access to reliable and cleaner electric power in all the 53 African
countries by 2030 is estimated at nearly 24 billion US$ per year, of with half in sub-
Saharan countries.
Graph 5 Africa Energy Investment needs 2010-2030
1.2 Challenges of the Energy Sector in Africa
Low access to modern energy. The 800 million people in sub-Saharan Africa
(excluding South Africa) share a combined generation capacity equivalent to that of
Argentina (28GW), a country of less than 40 million people. Only 24% of sub-
Saharan Africans have access to electricity (versus 40% in other low-income
countries), and this figure drops to less than 10% in rural areas.6
6
UN Report 2008

Electricity service coverage in sub-Saharan Africa
Graph 6 Electricity Access(by geographical area, % households)
If the current trend continues, fewer than half of African countries will reach
universal access to electricity even by 2050. Efforts to increase access will also
be affected by rapid urbanization across Africa. Rural-urban migration will increase
the focus on grid power connection in the coming decades. In fact, rural population
will decline in all income categories except in low-income countries. Meeting
increasing demand in rapidly growing low-income and informal urban settlement
areas will be a challenge.
Power consumption represents a tenth of that found elsewhere in developing

countries, hardly enough to power one 100-watt light bulb per person for three hours
a day.
Shortage of electricity throttles social development and economic growth.

About 35 countries in Africa are currently experiencing power shortages with frequent
supply interruptions. African firms declare to lose 5-6% of their sales as a result of
frequent power outages (an average of 56 days a year), this figure goes up to 20%
for informal sector firms unable to afford backup generation facilities.
Lack of power also holds back the achievement of the full range of Millennium
Development Goals. Without access to modern and sustainable energy services, the
poor in Africa are deprived of opportunities for to improve their living standards.
Although energy is not explicitly mentioned in the Millennium Declaration, the MDGs
cannot be met without higher quality and larger quantities of energy services than
current approaches provide. The contribution of energy services to meeting the
MDGs consists of both the direct impact of energy on raising incomes and the
indirect impacts on education, health, environment, and gender issues. The linkages
between energy services and the MDGs and growth are varied and complex.
The cost of energy to most African economies is higher than in other regions.
Presently, the cost of energy to African economies is higher than elsewhere: (i) the
cost of petroleum products reflects inadequate downstream industrial organization
with many inefficient refining facilities penalizing economies and the national budget,
and less than fully efficient markets for petroleum products sourcing on the

international market; landlocked countries bear the high cost of inefficient land
transport of petroleum products; (ii) electricity cost is estimated ot be twice the cost
of energy in other regions: it is inflated because of poor planning leading to
uneconomic emergency investment in power generation and reliance on expensive
self-generation requires to mitigate the effect of poor quality of power supply; and
inefficient management of transmission and distribution systems leads to high
technical losses in power systems; (iii) the most economically attractive opportunities
for power generation are regional and require complex structuring and transactions;
and (iv) the burden of managing traditional fuels for cooking and occasionally, space
heating, diverts economic resouces from more productive uses, in addition to the
environmental cost of deforestation.
The energy sector is a source of macroeconomic instability both in energy
importing and exporting countries. The recent oil price instability highlighted the
importance of diversifying the energy portfolio, aggressively pursuing measures to
improve energy efficiency, and being better prepared for high energy price volatility.
Large energy price changes affect relative costs of technologies, and price volatility is
one of the greatest obstacles to developing alternative energy in Africa, despite a rich
endowment in hydro, biomass, geothermal and solar energy.
The poor financial condition of the energy sector in most countries
compounded by the financial crisis is affecting the capacity of the Energy
sector in Africa to mobilize external financing to jump-start sector investment.
The global financial crisis is causing a collapse in already scarce private financing for
the energy sector in Africa. Efforts to curb soaring budget deficits in donor countries
and the reallocation of fiscal resources in priority to deal with the domestic impact of
the crisis implies that external concessional financing may be even more constrained
in the medium term. The investment needs are so huge and public resources are so
limited that there is no alternative to sourcing much of the financing gap from capital
markets, provided attractive returns and suitable risk profiles are guaranteed.
Constrained investment will make meeting future demand all the more difficult,
threatening to throttle growth. African governments need to formulate policies that
are resilient to energy price volatility.
Energy sector in Africa is a source of environmental damage. Africa, although a
small contributor to the GHG emission issue, needs to adopt a less carbon intensive
strategy for energy supply, and its large endowment witin renewable energy
potentially put the continent in a strong position worldwide. Regional strategies to
pursue a lower-carbon path are currently under discussion. In December 2007,
parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted the
Bali Action Plan for the enhanced implementation of the Convention, according to
which developing countries would consider nationally appropriate mitigation actions
in “the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology,
financing and capacity-building.” Africa, because of the nature of its primary energy
endowment (biomass and hydro in particular), is exposed to the consequencves of
climate change which will affect its water resources and its continental distribution as
well as the allocation of its solar resources. At the local level, the energy sector is
estimated to contribute by at least 30% to deforestation.
1.3 Responding to the challenges

Ensuring sufficient supply of electricity through regional exchanges. Africa’s
potential energy resources are sufficient to cover the needs of the continent but they
are un-evenly distributed geographically. Considering that the most economical
opportunities for energy productions are of a size that exceeds the needs of national

economies, projects of regional or sub-regional dimension, complemented by the
best national projects, need to be developed and implemented in a timely manner,
and a reliable transmission systems needs to be developed to transport energy from
the optimum production centers to the demand centers, and to facilitate cross-
support between national systems to improve reliability and reduce investment
requirements. Regional exchanges can ensure a continental balance between
energy supply and demand.
Making energy available through local entrepreneurship for distribution.
Making energy available requires not only that a sufficient amount of energy is
available but alos that it is delivered to consumers. Delivering energy to consumers:
The enabling conditions for rapid expansion of grid and off-grid electrification exist in
many African countries, providing a basis for action. A good number of African
countries have over the past decade pursued a reform agenda in the energy sector
that has created a conducive policy and institutional framework in support of rapid
scale-up of electrification. To scale up energy access, building on best practices,
Africa will have to mobilize entrepreneurship and resources from the local private
sector to expand distribution systems at the community level.
Closing the Financing gap through restored sector creditworthiness. The total
financing needs for Africa to resolve the power supply crisis and meet future demand
are about US$40 billion per annum. This is the cost of expanding generation capacity
by 7,000 MW per annum to achieve and maintain demand-supply balance, and
raising electrification rates by 10 percentage points. Currently, the region spends only
about $11 billion per annum (or just over a quarter of what is required) leaving a
financing gap of about $30 billion. Commitments from donors averaged $1.5 billion a
year for 2005/07, reaching a peak of $2.3 billion in 2007. This remains small in
relation to the needs. Private sector financing of creditworthy regional projects will be
key to energy supply and access expansion. For example, private sector expertise
will be needed to develop the large complex regional generation projects that are
necessary. But the energy sector in Africa has to become the best business
destination for investors in a globalized financing market. Enhancing credit risk
profile of large energy projects will need further reforms at the sector and utility level,
as well as improving business climate.
Developing economical regional energy projects to lower energy cost. The
most cost effective approach for expanding generation capacity at the lowest unit
cost is to develop large-scale generation projects to supply regional power pools
through cross-border trade. However, local markets often cannot absorb fully the
outputs of such mega-projects, resulting in sub-optimal utilization. Regional power
trade could make new hydro-power projects more bankable, resulting in savings for
sub-Saharan Africa of US$2 billion per year, reducing the unit cost of delivered power
through economies of scale and lowering carbon emissions through a reduction in
oil-fired generation. Regional approaches to both generation and transmission will be
needed to support the bilateral trades and power pools that will enable increased
development of low cost energy. Action can be based upon the wealth of existing
pre-feasibility studies for the development of electricity and gas At a minimum, the
significant funds required for project preparation − including design studies,
institutional reinforcement and environmental and social assessments should be
made available.
Adapting to Climate change. Africa is most vulnerable to climate change – it is
least prepared to deal with it, and will suffer the soonest and the most from it
because of its dependence on hydro power and biomass. The energy sector in
Africa contributes little to global greenhouse gas emissions and scaling up electricity
access would add only a small fraction of projected global emissions – from 1.5

percent of global annual energy-related CO2 emissions today to 2-3 percent of global
emissions by 2050. This is a result of very low energy consumption now and the
hydro-dominated power generation capacity mix found in many African countries.
Provision of basic modern energy services to the poor would contribute only 1
percent to global CO2 emissions.
Despite contributing little to global emissions, African countries should stand to gain
from opportunities afforded by emerging new financing instruments and cleaner
energy technologies. Further expansion of Africa‘s hydro potential, particularly large
regional projects, can play a dual role of developing lower carbon energy and
increasing climate resilience through improved water storage.
Graph 7 From challenges to Objectives
Challenges Responses to the Challenges Objectives

 Low Access Local Entrepreneurship
Energy Security
 Power shortages
Governance/Management Low Cost

 High Cost
Universal
 Source of instability Regional Market Integration Access
Sustainability
 Bankrupt sector Low Cost Regional Projects
 Environmental Damage Clean Energy Technologies
PIDA Study
 Strategy
 Programme
 Implementation

2.SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED

OUTPUTS OF PIDA ENERGY STUDY
2.1 Specific objectives
The specific objectives of the study are:
establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental
Energy development infrastructures based on shared development vision,
strategic objectives and sector policies;
establish a Energy infrastructure development program articulated around
priorities established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons by Power
Pools and RECs ;
prepare an programme implementation strategy and processes including, in
particular, the improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and
administrative processes); a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options
including measures for promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector
participation in infrastructure development.
2.2 Sectoral Objectives

Based on the preceding analysis for the energy sector, and subject to further
discussions, the Consultant proposes the objectives that the Strategic Framework
and the Infrastructure Program could include the following elements:
in particular for poverty reduction, by promoting the use of clean,

Achieving universal access to
modern energy in lieu of biomass to improve living conditions in
modern energy
households and protect the environment
of regional and continental energy through trade, and regional
Achieving energy security
integration, pooling of energy resources and developing them jointly
to reduce poverty and increase the competitiveness of African
Lowering the cost of energy
economies on the global market;
Developing institutions, instruments and credit enhancement Action
Financially sustainable energy Plans to bridge the financing gap for regional projects, with a special
sector focus on large regional energy projects
2.3 Time horizon considered

The ToR specifies that the Consultant may propose alternative time horizons in their
proposal. For Energy Sector, longer time horizons could indeed be justified.
The proposed time horizons, such as agreed upon during the meeting with the Panel
of Experts on 17 June, are:
the short term (2010-2020) instead of (2010 – 2015)
medium term (2021 -2030) instead of (2016 – 2020)
and long term (2031- 2040) instead of (2021 – 2030)

The horizon 2040 is considered for “The long term Regional Investment Plan” as
explained below, while 2020 and 2030 are more considered as “programming
horizons” as only few new continental projects are likely to be operational and to
produce benefits before 2020.
2.4 Expected Outputs of the Study

The outputs will be:
Evaluation of African energy situation and causal analysis:

Review of the previous studies related to energy integration in Africa;
Review of the power sector reforms as contributors to regional trade;
Review the renewable energy potential;
Review the hydroelectricity potential;
Review of existing hydropower and thermal power plants;
Analysis of the African and sub regional energy balances:
Primary energy demand by type
Primary energy demand by region
Energy production and imports/exports
Final energy demand by sector
Electricity demand
Electricity supply
Electricity generation performances
Fuel requirements for electricity generation
Barriers to improved electricity access
Benchmarking the indicators with other regions in the World; etc.
One of the most important outputs will be the electricity demand, in the form of
electricity growth scenarios by sub-regions and by countries.
Power outlook and investment program of each scenario:
The power outlook and investment program will be based on:

Economic situation and trends;
Supply:
 Identified energy resources by region;

 New power plants investments forecast;
 Priority projects;
 Transmission network forecast;
 Gas, oil products and coal requirements for power generation;
Demand:
 Energy demand by form and by subsector;

 Power demand forecast;
 Demand side management, renewable energy and energy efficiency;

Financing
 Investment financing needs;

 Financing Plan;
 Average tariff;
Environment
 Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental impacts ;

Barriers to avoid; etc.

3.METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH

3.1 Data needs and Data collection strategy
Data needed for the execution of the PIDA study are:
Continent-wide information on energy production and consumption
Background information regarding Sub-regional energy policies,
Inventory of projects under preparation and under implementation,
Information on identified constraints to investment.
Information on energy production and consumption
Purpose: Establish base line data for the year 2008, to all extent possible, for the
preparation of energy demand projections: electricity, biomass and petroleum
products.
Electricity: The Energy team will collect historical data at country level, aggregated at
sub-regional and continental level on:
Electricity production in terms of energy and capacity (distinguishing between
installed capacity and available capacity) from hydro, other forms of renewable
and thermal;
Consumption distinguishing between consumption mainly related to GDP growth
(industries and commercial, public sector) and consumption affected by per capita
revenue, demography, access (residential low voltage);
Transmission systems with a potential for regional exchanges (above 110 kV);
and
Regional trade statistics.
Biomass and alternative fuels: Biomass as traditional energy for cooking and space
heating is estimated to meet 70% to 80% of energy needs in SSA and about 40% on
North Africa Consumption of biomass as a source of energy is a regional issue as it
is a major contributor to deforestation and CO2 emissions and a contributor to
climate change at the national and regional levels7.; it is also a major contributor to
health hazard at household level with gender implications. Data and statistics on
biomass utilization as a source of energy are scarce, may not cover all countries and
are sometime un-reliable. The Energy team will nevertheless make its best effort to
collect consistent data on present utilization of biomass as a traditional source of
energy (historical series are not available). Statistics will be collected on wood fuel,
charcoal and alternative fuels (LPG and kerosene), on the estimated contribution of
biomass as traditional fuel to deforestation, and on the gender aspects of the
collection and utilization of biomass as a source of energy.
The Energy team will develop a simple demand projection model for consumption of
biomass for energy based on demographic factors, urban migration, and
modernization of energy consumption with per capita GDP (“climbing the energy
ladder” and substitution of more modern fuels to wood fuel and charcoal) and
potential for efficiency gains in use of traditional forms of energy.
7
Energy is the second largest cause of deforestation, after agriculture.

Petroleum products: The consumption of Petroleum products by the power sector

(gas, Diesel, HFO) represents typically about 30% of total petroleum consumption in
Africa (with a great variability depending upon the share of hydro in the power mix).
The Energy team will collect data on historical petroleum product consumption for
power generation (imported and locally produced) in volume and in value by type of
product, aggregated in terms of TeraJoules of energy and value in Euro. Demand
projections by demand center for petroleum products will be generated as a by-
product of the Power Sector Regional Long term Development Plan (see below).
The Energy team will collect data from AICD data base, the Power Pools, directly at
country level (Libya and Egypt) complemented by CEN-SAD data, IEA energy
balances, US Energy Information Administration (DOE).
Regional and Sub-regional energy strategies
The Energy team will analyze regional and sub-regional energy strategies and
implementation plans of UA, the RECs and Power Pools, as well as major donors
when they have strategies relevant to the African energy sector. The analysis will
cover not only general strategies but also energy strategies and sub-sectoral
strategies when they exist. The content of the strategies will be analyzed with regard
to the following aspects:
Regional integration;
 provisions for regional energy project development
 orientations regarding regional market integration
 procedures for the development of regional energy projects
 facilitation of energy exchanges
 allowing effective regional coordination for planning, dispatch, trading,
technical standards
Sector financial viability;
 management of utilities
 contribution to address the financing gap
Approach to Access;
 energy access objectives and priorities
PPP;
 approach to PPP for infrastructure

Environment.
 environmental strategies in their energy dimension

 contributing to environmental sustainability
The information regarding policies will be obtained from existing posting on web
sites, complemented by direct discussions with RECs, Power Pools and main
donors.

Inventory of major projects under preparation and implementation
The Energy team will prepare an inventory of energy projects with a regional
dimension.
The definition of energy projects to be inventoried will be taken as:

infrastructure energy projects including transmission and generation projects
which involve several countries such as Gouina or Ruzuma Falls and/or are of a
size that would have a significant impact on regional energy exchanges 8 such as
the rehabilitation of Inga 1 and 2;
energy trade facilitation projects such as the development of SAPP, WAPP and
other regional power pools,
capacity building projects which support directly or indirectly regional energy
exchanges, such as training programs for African Power Regulators,
institutional
development projects which will enhance the capacity of a national
system to participate in regional exchanges, such as the Action Plan for
SOMELEC or the rehabilitation of SNEL.
Each Regional Energy Projects complying with one of the categories above will be
classified in one of four categories, depending upon their degree of certainty: (i)
projects under implementation; (ii) projects for which at least 50% of the funding is
secured with legally binding agreements, but implementation has not commenced;
(iii) projects for which feasibility studies have been completed; and (iv) projects
which have not passed pre-feasibility stage but are defined in conceptual terms and
for which preliminary cost evaluations are available. Projects in the first two
categories will be considered committed, whereas projects from the third and fourth
categories will be considered as candidate projects to be evaluated and prioritized.
Projects of the fourth category will be submitted to likelihood and technical and
financial credibility tests to explain why they may be included in, or excluded from
the list of potential regional projects9 or pushed to the later years of the regional
energy projects program.
8
Energy projects located in a given country, but with a size or capacity higher than 20% of the country’s energy
consumption will be considered as affecting the regional potential for power exchanges, as they will affect directly or
indirectly the imports or export potential of the country. Projects which require the cooperation of several countries
for fuel supply (including water from common water basins), for shared off-take, or for allowing directly or indirectly
cross-border exchanges (including high voltage transmission projects located in one country but feeding into trans-
border transmission lines which will also be considered regional).
9
This test will aim at eliminating projects at a very conceptual stage with clear technical issues or with an
underestimated cost, which would “crowd out” more credible projects if they are considered as potential candidates in
the long term plan.

Graph 8 Inventory of Regional Projects
Under Partly Pre Conceptual

Implementa financed feasibility Stage
tion
Infrastructure
Energy
Energy
Trade
Facilitation
Regional
Capacity
Building
Utility
Institutional
Development
Sources of data regarding regional energy projects will be the data base of candidate
projects considered in the Long Term Development of each Power Pool and in the
long term development plan of Egypt and Libya; Candidate institutional and capacity
building regional energy projects will be identified through the RECs and the Power
Pools and through the main donors (ADB, World Bank group, EIB, KfW and GTZ,
AFD, USAID, DFID, CIDA, ...).
Information on identified constraints to investment
In the power sector: Major constraints to investment in national and regional energy
infrastructure are:

country creditworthiness, as power sector investment risk assessment to meet
local demand is capped by the overall country credit risk;
the power sector’s own creditworthiness, as the creditworthiness of a regional
power project depends on the creditworthiness of its weakest participant; and
the regulatory framework and its openness to regional projects and power trading.
Graph 9 Constraints to Investment
Sector
creditworth
Country’s credit rating
Openness of Regulation to Regional Projects
The Energy team will survey and document the sovereign credit rating of all countries
and their recent history in terms of sovereign borrowing on the international market,
as it determines their present capacity to contribute to the risk sharing of regional
power projects. At the power sector creditworthiness level, the Energy team will
collect information on proxies for assessing sector creditworthiness including sector
cash flow on operation, capital investment, nominal and effective tariff, Long Run
Marginal Cost (when available through national sector development plans), technical
and commercial losses, availability of plants. The Energy team will also document for
each country the friendliness of power sector institutions to regional project and
regional trading by collecting information in each country regarding the persistence of
a national monopoly for power generation, transport and distribution, the regulatory
situation, the existence of IPPs in the sector, the legal provisions for power trading.
Information for documenting the constraints on regional energy investment and trade
and development of regional policies for specific energy sub-sectors will be obtained
from the three main Credit Rating Agencies for sovereign ratings, Bloomberg for the
terms of sovereign borrowing, from the Rating Agencies (for the few African utilities

that are rated) and PPIAF under on-going utility rating program. Information will be
collected from the AICD data base on utilities’ creditworthiness for the countries
already covered and to be added to the data base shortly. The information will be
complemented by direct collection on North African utilities and a number of SSA
utilities from the ADB and the World Bank Energy Units and existing energy project
reports from these same institutions which often include financial and
losses/collection related statistics. Information on the regulatory framework and its
openness to regional projects and trade of energy will be assessed based on several
recent reports produced by the World Bank on power sector reforms, and on project
specific documentation from ADB, the World Bank and IFC which generally cover the
country situation with power sector reforms and regulatory framework. It may not be
possible, though to cover the power sector in all countries in Africa. Some gaps may
be unavoidable, which should not affect significantly the validity of the conclusions of
the analysis.
In the biomass sector: the Energy team will document experiences with the
introduction of higher efficiency heating and cooking appliances, and with fuel
substitution programs, with a special focus on identified obstacles and successful
solution developed to overcome them. The situation of traditional fuels expenditure
in household budget will also be examined to understand the issues to be addressed
under regional fuel substitution programs.
Regarding the data on obstacle to the modernization of traditional energy

consumption, the main sources will be country specific reports from ADB, the World
Bank and ESMAP, USEAI, IEA and selected non-profit organizations. A number of
countries, however, may not be documented, but a sufficient sample will be covered
to present a robust picture of the situation in the traditional energy sector.
3.2 Tools to be developed

The Energy team will develop specific tools for the analysis of energy related
strategies and the formulation of regional strategies related to energy; the
preparation of an optimized regional development program for electricity; and dealing
with the financing issues. The tools to be developed are:
Score card for Energy sector institutional readiness for regional projects at country
and REC levels
Preparation of a Long Term Regional Investment Program
Regional Financing Equilibrium model
Country Power sector creditworthiness Assessment
3.2.1 Score Card of Energy sector institutional readiness for regional

projects at country and REC levels
The preparation of a consistent evaluation instrument amongst countries aims at
focusing the attention of national and regional authorities on a limited number of
issues directly relevant to the development of a regional strategy and investment
program. It will be complemented by an evaluation of the RECs themselves
regarding their readiness to support regional strategies and projects. The Energy
team will apply the templates given in Annex 4 to evaluate the extent to which the
national energy sector framework in each African country is supportive to the
development and implementation of a regional energy strategy and the development
and implementation of regional projects. Once the country score cards have been

documented, they will be analyzed at the country and REC level and aggregated with
the REC score cards. The information collected in the score cards will be analyzed
based on the assessment of performance and success in the following areas:
energy trade facilitation within the region
development of a competitive regional market
lowering energy cost
accelerating access
support to PPP
Integration of regional water management
The diagnostic presented in the country and REC score cards will lead to the
formulation by the Energy team of recommendations for reforms at country and REC
levels, as part of the PIDA Regional Program Implementation task. It should be
noted that the country and REC recommendations will be limited to area directly
related to facilitation of the adoption of a regional energy policy and the
development/implementation of regional projects.
3.2.2 The long term Regional Investment Plan
For the preparation of the Regional Investment plan at the horizon 2040, the Energy
team will proceed in two steps, using two interconnected tools.
A Regional investment optimization model will be used to identify Regional projects

needed to balance the electricity supply and demand at the continental level. The
Energy team will develop electricity demand projections by demand centers to the
horizon 2040 both in terms of energy and power distinguishing between grid-served
demand which can be integrated in a regional system and decentralized energy
systems. The main parameters retained for the projections will be:
the GDP growth scenario for Africa, further detailed at country or sub-region level;
the evolution of urban and rural population and the demographic factors;
per capita GDP;
access policy and objectives;
energy conservation and demand side management; and
projected effective tariffs.
The demand projections will produce 8 demand scenarios, combining the Africa
growth prospects scenario retained, the increase in access rate, and the energy
conservation policy.
Two fuel price scenarios will be taken into consideration, based on projections
prepared by IEA and the World Bank; each fuel price scenario will distinguish: (i) one
sub-scenario without assigning a value to CO2 emissions, (ii) one sub-scenario with
a CO2 value of $10/ton; and (iii) one sub-scenario with a CO2 value of $20 per
tonne10. Under the first set of calculations, Africa will be treated as a borderless
continent. Then, each scenario will be fed into the optimization model in order to
select the most economical (least cost) generation investment sequence over the
2010-2040 period and to design the supporting regional transmission system.
Several alternative models will be considered, taking into account the long time
10
The range of values for CO2 emissions will be examined and justified separately.

horizon, the large number of candidate projects (including both national and regional
candidate projects) and the large number of hydro projects, which need a specific
treatment for planning purpose. The AICD optimization model, duly modified, will be
considered as a possible optimization tool.
Starting from the Base Case demand, fuel price and zero value of CO2, three main
risks or constraints will be evaluated:
constrained financing: availability of financing for capital investment about 30%
below the requirements of the optimum case;
constrained imports for energy independence sake: imports of any country limited
to less than 20% of demand;
postponing by a number of years to be agreed with AfDB all projects with a cost
above $3 billion.
Each scenario will be quantified through a model extension to evaluate its
environmental impact in terms of GHG emissions.
A second module will evaluate the various scenarios which differ with regard to CO2
value, import constraint and financing constraint in terms of:
Investment cost
Total production cost
Economic losses
GHG emissions in tons
Energy security
and propose an overall ranking of scenario on a multi-criteria basis, using a
Analytical Network Process (ANP) instrument, to be validated by AfDB. The Energy
team will examine the selected investment program and extract the generation and
transmission projects which meet the criteria to qualify as regional and present them
as the Regional Investment Plan.
3.2.3 The Regional Financing Equilibrium model

An important consideration associated is the financial implication of the selected
optimum scenario and the identification of its sources of financing in generic terms
(specific sources of financing are project specific). The Regional Financing
equilibrium model will test alternative investment financing plans (using the optimized
capital investment plan as an input, complemented with the Access investment
program, and examining alternative combinations of donor financing, government
financing, private sector financing and sector financing). The model will proceed to
calculate the power sector long term cash flow requirement to contribute to capital
investment and service the debt (public and private). Finally, it will evaluate the
average tariff level needed to ensure the financial viability of the selected investment
program and the tariff needed to ensure the financial viability of the Regional
Investment Program.

Power sectors creditworthiness Assessment
Drawing on the energy sector creditworthiness assessment methodology developed

by PPIAF for selected African countries11, the Energy team will prepare, for all the
countries for which data is available, a country energy sector creditworthiness
assessment brief providing a preliminary assessment of the sector creditworthiness
and main issues to be addressed to allow it to be able to participate in regional
power exchanges and in regional investment projects.
3.3 Interaction with Stakeholders

The Energy team will deploy three main tools for consultation and consensus
building: (i) Direct consultation with stakeholders; (ii) periodical workshops for
presenting draft conclusions; and (iii) virtual consultations on policies and obstacles
to the implementation of regional energy programs.
Direct consultation with AfDB and RECs/Power Pools on the structure of the
Score Cards for :
 the assessment of the alignment of their energy strategies with the
requirements for the development of regional projects and the formulation of a
Regional Strategy for Energy aligned with UA Regional priorities (September
2010); and
 the evaluation of the institutional framework and sector creditworthiness at
country level (September 2010).
Direct consultation with AfDB and RECs/Power Pools on the scenarios to be
utilized for the Regional Plan, including demand projections, fuel price projections,
CO2 value, lists of candidate projects, etc.. (September 2010) followed by a
follow-up consultation of the results of the optimization (November 2010).
Organization of a web site for virtual consultation on policies diagnostic and
proposed revisions (September 2010)
Workshop on the diagnostic on the strategies at REC and national level and
measures to be considered to improve REC and countries energy strategies to
facilitate energy regional integration; benchmarking of strategies with regions with
successful regional programs (December 2010).
Workshop at the end of Phase 1 including presentation of conclusions on
integration policies, draft technically optimized Outline of Regional Energy
Program.
Direct consultation with donors and the private sector on obstacles to
implementation of Regional Program, including financing (February 2011).
Workshop on presentation of the revised Regional Energy Erogram and identified
obstacles to implementation including reporting on creditworthiness issues and
benchmarking of the power sector of selected important potential importers and
11
PPIAF has developed a methodology for assessing the creditworthiness of Sub-national entities and
highlighting measures needed to improve it to come closer to investment grade under the Sub National
Technical Assistance (SNTA) program, which will be used, under a simplified format for African
countries which will participate in Regional energy projects, and will have to present acceptable levels
of creditworthiness.

exporters with countries which have been successful in attracting financing for
regional projects (April 2011).
Direct consultation with the RECs and selected countries (potential large exporters
or importers) on the list of regional priority energy projects (June 2011).
Direct consultation on full Implementation Plan for Regional Energy Strategies and
Regional Energy Projects (investment, trade facilitation and capacity building).
SWOT analysis applied to selected large regional energy projects (July 2011)
Workshop at the end of Phase 2.
4.DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE

UNDERTAKEN
Regional energy project is a project which requires multi-country cooperation for:
Inputs (shared water basin, trans-country gas pipeline)
Facility (transmission line or pipeline crossing at least one border, plant straddling
border),
Outputs shared between several countries
And large projects which may affect indirectly regional energy exchanges
because of their size.
4.1 Task 1.1. Review and situation analysis of regional and

continental policies and strategies
4.1.1 Task 1.1.1 Analysis of Policies and Strategies
In general, the RECs have broadly consistent policies articulated for electricity
around integration for sharing the benefits of economies of scales from large power
projects, continuity of transmission lines, coordinated dispatch, development of
regional technical standards and facilitation of electricity trade, and with regard to
renewable energy, access and the environment. There are regional differences,
though, regarding the instruments favored by each REC and Power Pool for policy
implementation, such as the level of involvement in the establishment of a
competitive power market or the development of a Regional Regulatory entity. The
task will analyze and compare the policies of the various RECs/Power Pools as of
2010 following the format given in Annex 4.
The Energy team will first benchmark each REC/Power Pool policy for the energy
sector against NEPAD’s priorities. For this sub-task, the Energy team will develop a
specific framework to allow the comparison. The framework will include two sections:
the first section will list a number of priorities (to be completed in consultation with the
client). The second section of the framework will capture in qualitative terms the
specificity of each REC/Power Pool which may not be captured in a “closed”
benchmarking table.
This sub-task will lead to the preparation of a complete set of charts listing for each
REC/Power Pool its policy objectives and performance indicators.

4.1.2 Task 1.1.2 Assessment of the level of achievement of policy

objectives
Following a methodology consistent with the approach used by the 2003 STAP for
the energy sector, the Energy team will assess the performance of each REC/Power
Pool in the energy sector regarding their capacity to influence national energy
policies and reform agenda in member countries to promote their policy objectives, to
coordinate energy sector planning between the regional and national level and to
catalyze/implement regional energy projects. The Energy team will in particular
review progress with harmonization of regulations and technical standards within the
REC countries, transparency in terms and conditions of regional exchanges of
energy (energy observatories).
4.1.3 Task 1.1.3 Causal analysis of level of achievement
This task will present the reasons why some RECs have performed well compared to
their objectives, successfully influenced policies of their member countries,
succeeded in harmonizing regional and national planning, built consensus around
regional projects, and made good progress in implementing the STAP objectives,
and why others have met with implementation problems.
The analysis will seek to separate the causes:
related to country situation, for example, energy pricing policy, payment discipline
in the power sector, governance and business climate as measures by the World
Bank Investment Climate Assessment (ICAs) for the energy sector; and
relatedto the performance of the RECs/Power Pools themselves, including their
mode of governance and their respective convening/consensus building capacity.
In a second sub-task, particular attention will be applied to the analysis of the political
economy of regional energy project development as a determining factor of success
or failure. The analysis will be prepared following the Problem Driven Governance
and Political Economy Analysis (PGPEA) methodology developed in 2009 by OECD.
This specificity of the proposed approach is to apply the political economy approach
to answer specific questions, such as: “Why is South Africa limiting its electricity
imports under the SAPP?”.
In a third sub-task, the Energy team will benchmark the RECs performance in the
energy sector with selected regional energy sector integration schemes worldwide
(including SEE in Southern Europe, SIEPAC in Central America, GCC in the Arabic
peninsula, GMS in East Asia) and compare their achievements in terms of
institutional development and impact on the ground.
4.2 Task 1.2 Review and situation analysis of regional

infrastructure for Energy.
The review will cover:
regional energy transport (gas transport projects such as WAGP and
Mozambique-South Africa gas pipeline, and electricity transmission projects such
as the Inga-Zambia transmission line, the Nigeria-Ghana interconnection, the
Tunisia-Algeria-Morocco Spain-Italy interconnection etc.),

regional trading projects (mainly in the electricity sector, for the development of
regional markets at the REC level, such as the SAPP and the WAPP),
regional energy production investment projects for meeting the demand of more
than one country (Inga, EGL/SINELAC, Felou etc..).
The analysis will also review regional energy projects explicitly included in the STAP
or in the priority lists of the RECs.
A challenge will be to obtain suitable and complete information to describe each

regional project. The Energy team proposes to use first the documentation listed in
the Terms of Reference, existing reviews of regional projects by NEPAD (the STAP),
recent ESMAP Case Studies on regional integration schemes, the 2005 WEC report
on Regional Integration in Africa, Appraisal documents and Completion Reports of
AfDB and the World Bank. In addition, direct information will be sought from the
Power Pools as well as staff from selected utilities through direct contact. There is a
concern that the Energy team may not be able to document all regional projects to
the same level of detail. The support of NEPAD and AfDB will be important to
facilitate access by the Energy team to the information needed.
4.2.1 Task 1.2.1: Define a standardized template
For both existing projects and projects under development, a standardized template
will be used, drawing on the model given in Annex 4.
4.2.2 Task 1.2.2 Review of existing infrastructures
The first sub-task will be the identification of all energy transport, trading and
production projects with a regional purpose. As many power transmission projects
may have a dual purpose, serving domestic needs as well as facilitating regional
exchanges, the list will be extended to include not only purely regional energy
transport or production projects, but also projects which contribute significantly to
regional exchanges (such as the reinforcement of the Ghana domestic transmission
system which contributed to the reinforcement of the WAPP system).
The second sub-task will be to evaluate each regional energy project in terms of
impact, performance, financial sustainability, environmental impact, effectiveness of
management and governance, using the format given in Annex 4. Particular
attention will be devoted to documenting the completed regional projects which were
part of the STAP.
Under this task, the Energy team will produce a data base including all regional
projects for which documentation has been obtained. A GIS software will also be
used to locate visually regional energy projects in Africa and at the sub-regional level.
4.2.3 Task 1.2.3 Inventory of infrastructures under execution or

preparation
The first sub-task will be to establish the list of projects to be considered as projects
under preparation and the list of project at concept development stage, following the
classification presented in Section 3.1 above. Only projects past pre-feasibility stage

will be considered as projects under preparation. The others will be considered as
under development.
The second sub-task will be to populate the data base of regional energy projects
under implementation, preparation or at conceptual stage following the templates
given in Annex 4. As it is too early to evaluate the impact, success or failure of
projects which have not been completed, the emphasis will be placed on how each
project integrates or contributes to the regional and continental objectives detailed
under Task 1.1.1.
At completion of this task, the client will be presented with a structured analysis of
projects under preparation, what regional objective they serve most and what are the
characteristics of the regional projects which serve best the regional and continental
energy agenda. A GIS software will be used to locate geographically energy projects
under execution and preparation.
4.2.4 Task 1.2.4 Detailed analysis of selected successful/failed

regional energy sector investment
From the investments presented under Task 1.2.2, a set of completed regional
investment will be singled out for detailed analysis.
The objective of this analysis will be to highlight the main factors explaining the
success or failure of regional and continental infrastructure projects. The analysis will
cover, among others:
the possible gaps between budgets and actual cost, between original schedule
and actual commissioning date;
the factors that caused such gaps;
the financial sustainability of the selected regional investments;
the actual environmental impact of the investment compared to initially evaluated
impact
The expected outcome of this task is to draw lessons from the past investment in
order to identify the main risks and the parameters leading to success or failure.
4.3 Task 1.3 Establishment of the outlook and program for

the future and identification of Challenges
Under this task, the Energy team will:
Derive from a continental vision a set of parameters driving the demand for
energy;
Present under the guidance of the Panel of Experts, a set of energy sector
outlooks for Africa at the continental and regional levels; and
Develop Regional plans for investment, energy trade facilitation and capacity
building.

4.3.1 Task 1.3.1 Initial vision and scenarios
Under this task, the Energy team will interact with the Panel of Experts to produce a
limited set of key drivers for the future development of the energy sector demand in
Africa at the country, regional level and continental levels.
The first sub-task will be to agree, with a wide participation of stakeholders, on the
main drivers of energy (electricity and traditional fuels) demand, which will include at
country level GDP growth, population growth (and number of households), grid-
based access rate, future price trend, fuel price projections, growth of urban centers,
prospects for development of new world-scale natural resources in Africa, etc.
The second sub-task will be to convene a specific workshop to propose a set of
scenarios for the key parameters determining the future strategy and investment
programs for the energy sector at regional and continental levels.
The third sub-task will be to validate the methodology for converting the global
parameters into energy demand projections. The actual energy demand will take into
account presently suppressed demand, and affordability constraints. The Energy
team proposes to proceed in three steps:
firstly,preparing global energy demand projections for Africa, at the continental
and regional level converting the key parameters into a set of long term
projections for each scenario;
secondly use the model MARKAL developed by the IEA to convert global energy
demand into long term energy scenarios.;
thirdly, select a planning model to prepare optimal investment programs for the
sector for each retained projection scenarios.
The Energy team will organize a Validation Workshop, as requested by the Terms of
Reference, to validate the methodological approach, select the most promising
scenarios, discuss the model for the conversion of the scenarios into energy demand
and supply, and brief participants on the MARKAL model for validation. The
participants in the workshops will be the NEPAD/AU staff, REC representatives,
AfDB and World Bank staff and selected international experts in prospective and
energy planning.
The fourth sub-task will be the preparation of an Outlook corresponding to the
preferred demand scenarios using the demand and planning instruments validated at
the workshop.
By the end of this task, a limited set of alternative Outlooks for the energy sector at
continental and regional level will be tabled, after validation by the workshop.
4.3.2 Task 1.3.2 Completing data collection for programming
The Energy team will complete the collection of the technical coefficients and
parameters needed for the preparation of optimized sector development plans for
each of the retained scenarios. The Energy team will upload the parameters
collected by the WAPP, SAPP, CAPP, EAPP and COMELEC for the preparation of
their own plans, updated as needed and completed with data from Libya and Egypt
to the extent the parameters for these systems are not included in the sub-regional
projections.

A second sub-task will be to complete and update the data base of candidate
projects, particularly regional projects, drawing on the lists of the regional Pools,
NEPAD, STAP, etc…
4.3.3 Task 1.3.3 Preparing alternative investment programs for the

selection of preferred scenarios
Under this task, and based on the selected Outlook for the energy sector validated in
the workshop under Task 1.3.1, the Energy team will present a number of
documented trade-offs for the consideration of the client, including, but not
exclusively:
Low Carbon option versus a least cost option. The Low Carbon option will set
continental and regional emission and renewable energy goals for 2040 and
present the implications in terms of technological choices, regional policies and
investment priorities.
an Accelerated Access versus a lower access development option: the
accelerated access option will require the connection of a larger number of high
cost consumers in rural area in particular and generate a higher demand growth
rate and therefore, more investment.
a Free Trade option versus a national energy security option: if no limit is put on
the share of imports of energy consumed, some countries would rely extensively
on regional trade for their energy supply. On the other hand, if countries decide to
set an upper limit on energy imports in order to reduce their supply risk, there will
be less regional energy trade.
The Energy team will evaluate the trade-offs of alternative continental and regional
policies in terms of economic, social and environmental costs.
4.3.4 Task 1.3.4 Preparing the outlines of programs for regional

energy trade facilitation and capacity building
The Energy team will develop specific programs covering institutional, technical,
financial and regulatory aspects of regional energy trade (the regional transmission
system development aspects will be handled under the regional investment program
under Task 1.3.3). Several alternative programs will be developed for the
RECs/Power Pools and at the continental level of AU/NEPAD, depending on the
envisaged level of devolution of authority from the national regulators to the Pools,
the willingness to extend the scope of the Pools to developing regional infrastructure,
and the interest in developing a real pooling approach to power trading.
The institutional aspects will include revisions to the scope, missions, governance
of the Pools.
The technical aspects will cover steps to move toward unified standards and
synchronization of systems.
The financial aspects will propose an action plan to extend the mission of the
Power Pools from administrative and regulatory functions to a mission of
implementing selected regional investment and acquiring the necessary
creditworthiness.

The regulatory aspects will examine whether and how the function of the Pools
regarding sector regulation, dispatch, regional trade monitoring, pool trading could
be developed.
The selected programs for regional trade facilitation will be supported by long term
capacity building programs tailored to facilitate the implementation of the regional
programs for energy trade facilitation.
4.3.5 Task 1.3.5 Analysis of choices and challenges for Regional

Investment, trade facilitation and capacity building programs
Following the preparation of alternative investment (Task 1.3.3 above), trade
facilitation and capacity building programs (Task 1.3.4 above), the Energy team will:
Characterize each alternative with regard to their cost, environmental impact,
social aspects, development of regional trade of energy, contribution to energy
security and financial feasibility;
Propose a multi-criteria analysis based on the Analytical Network Process (ANP)
to facilitate the evaluation of trade-offs (particularly between economic costs,
environmental impact, implementation risk, national sovereignty) between
alternative programs for decision-makers;
Prepare a risk analysis for the most attractive scenarios and programs in terms of
exogenous factors (availability of financing and international fuel prices for
example), and regional risks (level of demand). For Africa and each sub-region,
the Energy team will evaluate the risks which would result if the reality differs
significantly from the selected scenario for the future and investment are engaged
on the basis of the selected scenario (flexibility of investment programs).
4.4 Task 2.1 Formulation of the Strategic Framework

Based on the analytical work under Tasks 1 and on the evaluation of the alternative
scenarios developed under the Outlook task (Task 1.3.1), the Client will select a
preferred Strategic Framework, which will be developed in two stages: In a first
stage, the Energy team will prepare an Outline of the Strategic framework, following
the structure presented in Annex 4. In a second stage, after validation of the Outline,
the Energy team will develop a full Strategic Framework.
4.4.1 Task 2.1.1 Drafting Outline on Strategic Framework
The Energy team will follow the methodology detailed in Annex 4 and ensure that all
the questions and aspects listed are covered.
4.4.2 Task 2.1.2 Consultation on Outline
The role of the Energy team will be to organize a broad consultation to obtain feed-
back on the Outline of the Strategic Framework and validation before engaging in the
drafting of the complete Strategic framework. The Energy team will:

Organize a broad virtual consultation through internet communication and posting

of the Outline on the PIDA Website in order to get a feed-back from civil society
and the community of stakeholders interested in the energy sector in Africa,
including institutional and private parties.
Present the outline of the Strategic Framework in a workshop involving the
Regional institutions and energy sector donors.
The Energy team will play the role of coordinator for the virtual consultation and of
facilitator in the various working groups during the workshops. In addition, the Energy
team will prepare minutes of the workshops and structure the comments and
contributions received during the consultation.
The Energy team will prepare proceedings of the workshop and of the virtual
consultation and post them on the PIDA Web site for public consultation. In addition,
the Energy team will provide support for the preparation of press releases, press
books and briefings as needed.
4.4.3 Task 2.1.3 Drafting the Strategic Framework
The second task will be the drafting of the Strategic Framework document. The
Energy team proposes, subject to validation by the client, to follow the outline given
in Annex 4. By the end of this task, a complete draft Strategic Framework will be
available, based on parameters and methodologies validated with stakeholders.
4.5 Task 2.2 Formulation of the Energy Regional

Investment Program
The continental and regional energy sector development program will be prepared
taking into account continental, regional and national priorities as spelled out in the
Energy Strategic Framework. It will cover the 2010-2040 period as a number of
projects of continental or regional significance are likely to be large hydro projects, or
large gas pipeline, which have a gestation period of up to 10 years: as a result, only
few new continental projects are likely to be operational and to produce benefits
before 2020.
4.5.1 Task 2.2.1 Preparation of an Outline Program for the

Development of Regional and Continental Energy Infrastructure
The Outline Regional Program for Energy will be the program selected under Task
1.3.5 above. It will include a list of generation and transmission projects, their cost
evaluation and their scheduling as part of the overall long term investment program
(including national projects). While the investment program examined under Task
1.3.5 above will cover all generation and transmission projects in the Region, the
projects included in the Outline Regional Program will include only projects which are
regional, based on the definition given above.
In the preparation of the Outline, it will be taken into account that most RECs have
already developed their own Long Term Least Cost Development Plan. The Energy
team will verify that the regional and continental energy projects retained under the
energy component of the Program for the Development of Regional and Continental

Infrastructure (the Regional Program for Energy) are consistent with the Least Cost
Plan of the RECs.
At the national level, the Energy team will ensure that the projects considered under
the Program for the Development of Regional and Continental Infrastructure for the
energy sector are integrated in the national energy sector development plan, in order
to avoid investment decisions at the national level contradicting the Regional
Program.
4.5.2 Task 2.2.2 Consultation on Outline Regional Energy Program
The consultation on the Outline Regional Energy Program will differ from the
consultation on the Strategic framework, as the purpose of the consultation will be to
reach a consensus with RECs/Power Pools and the main countries on the scope of
the Regional Energy Program, and to check that there is an agreement on the priority
level and characteristics of the selected Regional Energy Projects. The consultation
will have two steps:
The presentation of the process, results and variants of the Regional Energy
Program, led by the Energy team jointly with AU/NEPAD, to the RECs/Power
Pools, selected countries and the main donors; and
A bilateral dialogue with the RECs/Power Pools on the priority projects of
relevance to their respective systems.
At the Outline stage, the program will include the list of generation and transmission
projects, their estimated cost and technical characteristics, as well as their optimal
time scheduling, but not a detailed description of each project.
4.5.3 Task 2.2.3 Preparation of a Draft Program for the development

of Regional and Continental Energy infrastructure
The Draft program will start from the list of Regional Energy Projects included in the
Outline prepared under Task 2.3.1. It will consider each Regional Energy Project
retained under the Outline and approved by the RECs/Pools and the main countries
involved and prepare a Note describing the project to a level of detail sufficient for the
preparation of terms of reference for Pre-feasibility work (if no prefeasibility study
exists), on the understanding that the task of the Energy team will not include the
preparation of full terms of reference for the feasibility studies.
4.6 Task 2.3 Formulation of a draft implementation

strategy and processes
The strategy to support the implementation of the Regional and Continental energy
infrastructure program, will be designed in close coordination with the AU, NEPAD,
and donors (ADB and other multi-lateral and bilateral agencies, with a special
emphasis on agencies with a strength in structuring large projects and designing
innovative financing structures).
The inputs will be:
the Strategic framework;
the development programme; iii) the recommendations based on the causal
analysis; and

lessons learnt in project implementation evaluated under Task 1.1 above and a
risk analysis specific to regional energy projects.
The implementation strategy and processes will distinguish between the
implementation of Regional Energy projects of a “normal” size by continental
standards, and a few special regional projects which are special by their size or
strategic importance, such as Inga. Priority measures, resources and tools will be
identified for Regional energy projects in general, and for each of the special
projects. It will specifically address (i) the mobilization of financing; (ii) the
implementation capacity and mechanism; and (iii) consensus building between
countries and RECs.
4.6.1 Task 2.3.1 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation

strategy
The implementation strategy will aim at mobilizing the RECs, utilities and donors to
work jointly on the implementation of the Plan. This strategy will be organized around
the following pillars:
Building a consensus for priority implementation of the Regional Energy Strategic
Framework and Program and agreeing that alternative projects are to be
considered only if priority institutional development programs under the Strategic
Framework and projects in the Plan cannot be realistically implemented.
Proposing a facility for implementing the capacity building aspects of the Strategic
Framework and for project preparation12. Under PIDA, a consensus amongst
donors to earmark and pool resources for the implementation of the Framework
and the Plan will be sought. The pooling of resources for preparation would not
only increase the funds available for this activity, but also raise the level of
commitment of the members to common goals and investment programs.
Sketching suitable financing and risk mitigation instruments which would meet the
expectation of the financial market and private investors specifically for regional
projects.
Encouraging donors and financiers to maximize co-financing and financial
leveraging of regional and continental projects and to operate as a group, where
all members share proportionately in each project, preferably to each donor
focusing on preferred projects.
Identifying country specific reforms that would improve the creditworthiness of
utilities for supporting regional energy projects.
4.6.2 Task 2.3.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation

processes
For the implementation of the Strategic Framework and the Plan, the Energy team
recommends that a PIDA Energy group be formally established.
The brief of the group would be to:
12
The preparation of feasibility, environmental and social assessments and other preparatory studies for large
regional and continental projects, as well as for institutional developments under the Strategic Framework will require
substantial resources (development costs may amount to 3 to 8% of the total project engineering cost). A weakness
in the financing of preparatory work for regional or continental studies, technical assistance or project has in the past
been the fragmentation of the contribution of the donors.

agree on priority actions to be undertaken under the Strategic Framework and the
Plan in the period 2010-2015 and on an allocation among members of the
responsibilities for each action;
coordinate the actions to be engaged at PIDA and REC levels and at the
national/individual donor level;
act as developer of priority projects included in the Strategic Framework and in the
Plan and to provide seed money for the development activities;
maintain permanent contact with civil society, and also international fora where
energy issues at the continental level are discussed.
The Energy team will propose a process for assigning the PIDA Energy Program to a
Regional Execution Agency, under authority of RECs and respective Power pool,
once the Program is accepted and entered in force.
4.6.3 Task 2.3.3 Integration of Phase II report and presentation
The first step for the implementation of the Strategic Framework and the Plan for the
energy sector will be to organize the presentation to a wide audience of both
documents in final form. The event where the documents will be presented would be
also the instance where the PIDA Group may be launched. The Energy team will
present a business plan covering the next five years for the PIDA Group.
5.WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE

As stated in the general part of the report, the proposed time line would be as
follows:
Submission of Inception Report: July 5th 2010
Kick Off workshop: Week of 29th July
Phase 1: Validation Workshop: 23rd September 2010
Submission of Phase 1 report: 25th January 2010
Phase 2: four strategic sector workshops: 15th April2011
Phase 2: report: 15th July 2011
Phase 3 report: 20th November 2011
The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for
Phase I and Phase II.


6.HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT

6.1 Team and expertise
A team of four experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 36 man
months. The team has the full range of expertise required:
Energy Leader
Energy Strategy Expert
Energy Programme Expert
Energy Model Expert
6.2 Team organization

6.3 Task assignments

The assignment of the experts of the Energy team to the tasks describes above is
given in the table below.

INCEPTION REPORT
TRANSPORT SECTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES..............................1

1.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 1
1.2 TRANSPORT IN AFRICA ................................................................. 1
1.2.1 Corridors and transnational roads .......................................................2
1.2.2 Rail infrastructure .........................................................................4
1.2.3 Maritime transport infrastructure (ports) ..............................................4
1.2.4 Inland waterway/lake transport infrastructure .......................................5
1.2.5 Air transport infrastructure ..............................................................5
1.2.6 Transport facilitation .....................................................................6
1.3 SECTOR CHALLENGES .................................................................. 6
2. THE SCOPE AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE OF THE PIDA STUDY FOR
THE TRANSPORT SECTOR.................................................9
2.1 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES .................................................................. 9
2.2 SECTOR-SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES........................................................ 9
2.3 TIME HORIZONS CONSIDERED ....................................................... 10
2.4 RISK ASSESSMENT ..................................................................... 10
2.5 TRANSPORT DATA COLLECTION STRATEGY ...................................... 11
3. METHODOLOGY, ANALYTICAL APPROACH AND DETAILED TASKS
DESCRIPTION .............................................................. 12
3.1 DIAGNOSTIC AND IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE SECTOR (PHASE 1)........... 12
3.2 REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL POLICIES OF TRANSPORT AND
TRANSIT (TASK A1) ................................................................... 12
3.2.1 Background ............................................................................... 12
3.2.2 Analytical Approach for policies review .............................................. 16
3.2.3 Data identification and collection strategy .......................................... 17
3.2.4 Interaction with the specific stakeholders ........................................... 18
3.3 REVIEW OF REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURES FOR TRANSPORT (TASK A2) .... 18
3.3.3 Background ............................................................................... 18
3.3.4 Analytical approach for transport Infrastructure ................................... 18
3.3.5 Tools to be developed for the transport infrastructure sector.................... 21
3.4 ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURE (TASK B1)........................................................ 21
3.4.1 Background ............................................................................... 21
3.4.2 Analytical approach to develop an outlook for the future transport
infrastructure ............................................................................ 22
3.4.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis ............................................... 26
3.5 ANALYSIS OF CHOICES AND CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURE (TASK B2)........................................................ 27
3.5.1 Background ............................................................................... 27
3.5.2 Analytical approach for transport modal choice .................................... 27
3.5.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis of choice and challenges................. 30
3.6 PREPARATION OF AN OUTLINE PROGRAMME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
REGIONAL AND CONTINENTAL TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES (TASK B3) 30
3.6.1 Background ............................................................................... 30
3.6.2 Analytical framework for the outline program preparation ....................... 31
3.6.3 Tools to be developed for the outline program for transport infrastructure ... 31
3.6.4 Preparation of the Phase I report ..................................................... 32
3.7 FORMULATION OF A PRELIMINARY DRAFT STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK,
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AND IMPLEMENTATION
STRATEGY FOR THE TRANSORT SECTOR (PHASE 2) ............................ 32
3.7.1 Preparation and holding of transport sector workshop (Task 1) .................. 32
3.7.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft strategic framework (including sector
policies) ................................................................................... 33
3.7.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development programme ... 34
3.7.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process ...... 35
4. WORK BREAKDOWN...................................................... 36
4.1 DIAGNOSTIC AND IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE SECTOR (PHASE 1)........... 36
4.1.1 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and Transit (task A1) ... 36
4.1.2 Review of Regional Infrastructures for Transport (task A2) ....................... 36
4.1.3 Establishment of an outlook for the future Transport Infrastructure (task B1). 37
4.1.4 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport Infrastructure (task B2) ...... 38
4.1.5 Preparation of an outline programme for the development of regional and
continental transport infrastructures (Task B3) ..................................... 39
4.2 FORMULATION OF A PRELIMINARY DRAFT STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK,
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AND IMPLEMENTATION
STRATEGY FOR THE TRANSORT SECTOR (PHASE 2) ............................ 39
4.2.1 Organization and conduct of workshops.............................................. 39
policies) ................................................................................... 39
4.2.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development programme ... 39
4.2.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process ...... 39
5. WORK PLAN AND TIMELINE............................................. 40
6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT .................................... 42

6.1 EXPERTISE OF THE TEAM ............................................................ 42
6.2 TASKS ASSIGNMENTS ................................................................. 42
INCEPTION REPORT/ TRANSPORT SECTION
THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

1.1 Introduction
The transport sector part of the study will comprise the infrastructure and associated services
of:
roads,
railways,
air transportation
maritime ports/trade facilitation/customs,
navigable waterways and lakes transport
Pipelines (for the transport of POL locally consumed)
Intermodal transport
Intermodal transport for passengers mainly refers to rail/road and rail/air intermodality but
rivers and lakes transport may also combine usefully with other land modes. For freight, the
rail/road/river-lake/seaports intermodality is of the utmost importance to improve regional and
international trade for all countries, landlocked or not in combination with an improvement of
the entire transport logistics chain, including customs and IT components.
1.2 Transport in Africa

Transport infrastructure development is a key instrument to facilitate trade, strengthen
economic relations, increase peoples’ mobility and hence enhance the countries’ socio-
economic development, reduce poverty reduction and increase the regional and inter-
regional integration of African countries. Also since many of the countries and their potential
trade are of a small-scale, regional integration is essential to create larger markets and justify
infrastructure investments,
Transport services on the African continent are inefficient as demonstrated by the high
operating costs, poor knowledge of operating costs, poor operating practices, poor routine
maintenance of transport infrastructure, etc. These problems have led to the high transport
prices paid by shippers in the region. In addition, Africa has 15 landlocked countries and their
transportation needs to the seaports are not adequately provided for in the current
continental and regional transport/logistics system. Furthermore, cumbersome administrative
procedures, poor management practices and poor facilities within the transit countries are
detrimental to the development of the international trade of the landlocked countries. Port
capacity constraints and operating issues also affect trade to and from the coastal countries.

Intra-African trade linkages are still very weak. Intra-African trade is less than 10 percent of
total African exports1 and rural access to roads is only 34%2, a dramatic score for trade and
more generally for the economic development of the concerned populations. The principal
obstacles to trade include among others national and international trade policies (barriers),
insufficient transport infrastructure, quality standards and maintenance, political instability,
underground transport economy and its illegal practices.
These obstacles result in a transport service cost that is almost twice as high as the world
average: 12.6 per cent compared to 6.1 per cent for the world average3, worsening the
difficult situation of African consumers and producers. Landlocked countries’ transport costs
can be up to 50 per cent higher than those of coastal countries4.
The transport/logistics cost of goods in sub-saharan Africa is one of the highest in the world 5,
making African products less competitive than foreign ones (even in Africa itself around its
ports). Also transport prices for most African landlocked countries range from 15 to 20
percent of the import costs. This is approximately two to three times more than in most
developed countries.
1.2.1 Corridors and transnational roads

Africa has about 2.09 million km of roads of which 21.17% is paved. The distribution of road
lengths by sub-region is as follows:
North Africa 347,451 km
West Africa 434,910 km
Central Africa 186,471 km
East Africa 476,558 km
Southern Africa 574,485 km (this figure excludes South Africa)
The continent has about 55,000 km of transnational roads: Source :AfDB – ECA
TNR 1: Cairo-Dakar (8640 km)
TNR 2: Alger-Lagos (4 500 km)
TNR 3: Tripoli-Windoek (9 610 km)
TNR 4: Cairo-Gaborone (8 640 km)
TNR 5: Dakar-N’djamena (4 500 km)
TNR 6: N’djamena-Djibouti (4 220 km)
TNR 7: Dakar-Lagos (4010 km)
TNR 8: Lagos-Mombasa (6 260 km)
1
African Statistical Yearbook 2009 (data 2007, table 3-7)
2
Against 90% in developing countries. Source: internet site of the Group AfDB, http://www.afdb.org/fr/topics-
sectors/sectors/infrastructure/
3
UNCTAD, ‘Efficient Transport and Trade Facilitation to Improve Participation by Developing Countries in International Trade’,
2003
4 .
World Bank Economic Review. 15(3): 451–79, 2001
5
As underlined by K.Y. Amoakowholed the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in 1995-2005 at the rank of
UN Under-Secretary-General.

TNR 9: Beira-Lobito (3 520 km)

The physical situation of road infrastructure has not changed significantly compared to the
situation observed in 2000. The situation is still characterized by a network with a relatively
low density (2.68 km per 1000 inhabitants) and is in an advanced stage of disrepair. In
addition, there is a lack of physical continuity and there are disparities in the level of services
along the regional roads, poor accessibility of rural areas to transport infrastructure and a
lack of co-ordination in the management of the infrastructure. Also, the network is not utilized
optimally because of the disparity in the rules and practices relating to inter-state transport
and transit within the Union.
The road infrastructure statistics in Africa show6 that 65% of the missing links in the Trans-
African Highway (TAH) network are situated in Central Africa. Of all existing sections, only
one third is paved in this part of the continent. These issues indicate the particular difficulty
that landlocked countries face in establishing international trade and transport.
6State of Transport SectorDevelopment in Africa, African Union, April 2008.

1.2.2 Rail infrastructure

African railways consist mostly of single lines penetrating inland from the coastal seaports
with few interconnections, except in South Africa. The average technical speeds of African
railways are about 30 to 35 km/hr. Commercial speeds are a little lower.
The most significant constraint on the railway system in Africa is the poor density of the lines.
In its 2008 report, UNCTAD highlights the very low railway ratio of Africa with 2.5 km/km2
compared to the world average of 23 km/km2. Even Southern Africa with the highest ratio is
very low at 5.6km/km2, and all others lag with ratios between 1.2 (Central Africa) and 2.3
(North Africa).
Sixteen African countries do not have railway lines or sections of international lines. The
national railway networks in Sub-Saharan Africa are mostly independent of each other,
except the Eastern and Southern African rail systems, which are interconnected. Other
African interconnected railways systems are those of Burkina Faso/Cote D'Ivoire,
Senegal/Mali, and Ethiopia/Djibouti.
As regards railway transport, there is hardly any development that has increased total
passenger and freight transportation significantly on the continent. UIC statistics show that
the overall performance in (ton-km/pax-km) has slightly decreased while the share in railway
transport increased in other parts of the world. Despite several specific privatisation and
concessioning actions, which may have caused local improvement, the rail mode in Africa
has not been able to gain competitiveness compared to road transport.
For the mining sector and its bulk exports, the rail mode remains an important instrument to
develop business. New investment initiatives in freight traffic should hence relate to the
development of mining activity and the transport of ore with heavy-loaded and long trains,
opening the way to profitable activities and the attraction of private investors and operators.
1.2.3 Maritime transport infrastructure (ports)

Maritime ports play a vital role in the development of world trade and commerce as more
than 90% of the world’s international trade passes through ports. Ports have a major impact
on African development and the economy. The amount and type of cargo passing through a
port located in one country is a good indicator of the state of the economy in that country and
its hinterland.
There are about 80 major ports/harbours around the continental coastline and many other
specialized port facilities for fishing, tourism, etc. The berthing facilities available at each of
these ports depend largely on the historical developments and the nature of trade generated
by the port country and its hinterland. The majority of African ports have a mixture of facilities
such as conventional berths, oil jetties, bulk berths, containers terminals etc. with the
conventional berths predominating.
The African ports have a share of only 3% in the worldwide container throughput7 (figures
from 2007). The largest throughput is for Egypt, which has shown a significant increase up to
more than 4,7 million TEUs in 2007, being at the 12th position of all developing countries.
African runners up are Ivory Coast, Kenya and Ghana, with 500-600,000 TEUs in 2007
(position 51, 52 and 53 of all developing countries). Other African ports, such as those in
Tanzania, Sudan, Angola, and Djibouti have a throughput of less than 0,5 million TEU. More
recent figures may show significant decreases due to the financial crisis.
7
Review of Maritime Transport, UNCTAD 2008.

Maritime ports facilitate international trade, although they are only a key in a chain of
transport activities. Port facilitation in Africa leaves however some key issues for
improvement, both technical (equipment) as in port management. Particularly as regards
containerisation, African ports have lagged behind, while containerised transports formed the
major source of growth of ports worldwide.
Furthermore, crucial issues are the customs procedures and information technology that are
presently insufficient in most African ports to contribute to corridor development, serving
hinterland connections.
The biggest development in multimodal transport in Africa during the last few years has been
the establishment of Inland Container Depots (ICDs) serving landlocked countries. ICDs
have developed rapidly in Africa, particularly in Eastern and Southern Africa, as inland port
terminals in coastal or land-locked countries in the hinterland of one or more seaports.
1.2.4 Inland waterway/lake transport infrastructure

The main inland waterways in Africa are limited to four rivers namely: the Nile, Congo, Niger
and the Zambezi Rivers and three lakes: Victoria, Tanganyika and Malawi.
Africa’s inland waterways are a source of livelihood for millions of people and traditional
channels of exchanges and communication. The challenges are to develop the regulatory
framework and the capacity to maintain appropriate safety and security standards and to
foster integration of lake and river shipping into multimodal transport chains through modern
transhipment stations linking them with road and rail networks.
The outcomes of the recent NEPAD studies on Infrastructure Development Gaps have
identified the major constraints of inland waterways transport as follows:
Poor safety and security due to lack of communication- and SAR (search and rescue)
systems;
Poor infrastructure at terminals;
Difficulties
arising from seasonal blockages caused by water weeds that often close inland
waterways routes and terminals; and
Lack of modern fleet to provide reliable transport services.
The same report has proposed that strategic orientations to improve inland water services
should revolve around:
Improving and maintaining terminals of inland waterways;
Introducing modern fleets;
Upgrading the safety, security and environment of the inland waterways; and
Harmonizing procedures and standards to improve their domestic and international traffic.
1.2.5 Air transport infrastructure

Air movement within Africa also shows physical and operational gaps; it offers few routes
with few competitors. National capitals are connected to European cities, while it remains
difficult to find frequent or reliable flight connections to other African cities. Also high fares
remain a problem, with inter-African flights ranking among the most costly. Furthermore, the
blacklisting of several African airliners for security faults has pushed the air transport sector
deeper into crisis.
The current stage of the African aviation sector hence continues to face serious development
difficulties characterised by (i) the slow implementation of a liberalised pan–African aviation

market (pending implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision), (ii) a continued high
accident rate and a general unsatisfactory level of security, (iii) the difficulty of many carriers
in establishing adequate access to finance for the procurement of modern aircraft, and (iv)
the increased shortage of qualified operational human resources8.
African airlines managed to carry only 4.5% and 1.6% global passenger and cargo air traffic
respectively in 2006. Most African airlines are small in size (fleet/capital) and are largely state
owned (national flag carriers). They are heavily indebted with low productivity and poor
management and high operating costs have hindered the potential for growth and the
capacity of African airlines to cope with growing competition. There is however a small
number of African airlines performing better than the general picture9.
Consequently, there is a need to upgrade international airports and air navigation facilities to
ICAO standards and recommended practices. In most African airports, work on rehabilitation
of all facilities is not well attended to.
1.2.6 Transport facilitation

Besides the limitation of the physical infrastructure, transport development - in all modes of
transport - there are also various problems in transport organisation, regulations, border
control, road blocks, a lack of monitoring and control, etc. These issues will be dealt with in
the first part of this study, focussing on transport policies and the relating constraints for
transport development.
1.3 Sector Challenges

Effective regional and continental transport infrastructure development requires a strategic
framework for project implementation, harmonisation of procedures and regulations, and
long-term dedicated monitoring and asset management at national, regional and continental
level.
The NEPAD has set as one of the strategic objectives to promote regional integration
through bridging the infrastructure gap by10:
Reducing the costs and improving the quality of services;
Increasing both public and private financial investment in transport infrastructure;
Improving the maintenance of transport infrastructure assets;
Removing formal and informal barriers to the movements of goods and people (among
which waiting and slack times at cross-borders or in ports); and
Supporting regional cooperation and the integration of markets for transport services.
This development plan for efficient use of transport infrastructure provides Africa with an
instrument to enhance trade, industrial development, mobility and hence the socio-economic
development of the continent.
8
Conclusions of AU Air Transport Forum, 2007
9
African Union, Development of Air Transport in Africa, 2007.
10
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan 2002

The objectives of NEPAD are as follows
Transport infrastructure links and nodes
Properly complement and “interface” regional and continental modal networks

to widen the access to the transport infrastructure and services for goods and
passengers to secure convenient regional links
Properly maintain and manage regional and continental networks
Develop private financing of construction, maintenance and management of transport
infrastructures
Transport services for goods and passengers
Improve transport security and safety

Reduce origin-to-destination formal and informal costs
Improve origin-to-destination efficiency (duration and services quality)
Eliminate regulation barriers to regional movements and trade,
Simplify and accelerate border-crossing procedures
Develop competitiveness of transport services through private involvement and
competition in transport and logistics services on the transport infrastructures.
Environmental protection
Optimise the transport system and multimodal solutions to minimise the impact on the
environment of:infrastructure assets of construction works and transport operation
Harmonisation institutional, regulatory and administrative frameworks
Trade regulation and taxes on transports, customs and border-crossings of vehicles,

goods and persons
Technical standards of the transport infrastructure and equipment, including rolling stock
Technical standards for the transport exploitation (e.g. maximum load)
Transport safety and security regulation
Licensing, legal obligations and taxes for the transport operators
Taxes for transports
Those challenges and expected recommendations shall cover all kind of actors of the
regional transport systems and more particularly:
Institutional bodies and regulators (including customs)
Private and public investors
Infrastructure suppliers (civil engineering and equipment)
Infrastructure management bodies
Transport operators

Traders
Passengers
Goods producers
Goods consumers

2. THE SCOPE AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE OF THE PIDA

STUDY FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
The transport sector for the purposes of this study will include passenger and goods
transport in the following sub-sectors: air, road, rail, maritime, river-lake, pipeline as well as
multimodal systems.

The specific objectives of the study are to:
Establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental Transport
development infrastructures based on shared development vision, strategic objectives and
sector policies;
Establish a Transport infrastructure development program articulated around priorities
established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons;
Prepare a programme implementation strategy and processes;
Prepare a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options including measures for
promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in infrastructure
development.
2.2 Sector-specific objectives

The Pida study will help to develop a common vision for transport among Africa development
institutions and partners on the policy changes and institutional reforms needed to ensure
that better maintenance and the expansion of physical capacity as well as better
management resulting from institutional reforms and increase investments are effectively
translated into better and cheaper services for all.
Through the analysis of transport policies, recent infrastructure projects and the preparation
of outlook, the PIDA study will provide strategic leadership by mobilizing political action and
financial resources to secure completion of needed reforms and facilitate preparation and
implementation of sector development programmes and projects by RECS and regional
institutions.
One important aspect of the study will be to find ways and means to enlarge the participation
of the private sector both in operation of transport services and the financing of infrastructure
through concession, BOT, maintenance and management contract etc; in particular for ports
and air transport
The Consultant considers that the implementation of soft programmes for the removal of
regulatory and institutional bottleneck should be a priority for the transport sector in Africa;
However these reforms should be complemented by the development of intermodal facilities
and the reduction of the missing links.
As specified in the TOR, the following Sector-specific objectives will be taken into account:
 Strengthening of the economic and social development of African regions and the
continent, and their economic integration through trade and the movement of people and
freight;
 Enhancement of Africa’s competitiveness at the global level ;

Pursuance of efforts to open up regions and the continent, and implementation of the
UN Almaty Programme of Action;
Enhancement of the efficiency of physical transport infrastructures and associated
services;
Freight intermodality;
Road, maritime and air transport safety and security;
Single African Sky” (the Yamoussoukro Decision on the liberalization of African air
transport);
Environmental protection; and

Harmonization of institutional and regulatory frameworks, and other administrative
procedures.
The Consultant will prepare a set of visions for Africa for the next 10, 20 and 30 years These
visions will become the goals to be reached by the African continent. The transport team will
conduct all the necessary studies and analyzes to ensure that the transport infrastructures
and the relevant transport services are correctly developed and improved to satisfy the
transport demand resulting from these economic developments.
In particular, the PIDA study will analyze the role motor of transport infrastructures and
transport services in economic growth and make sure that the proposed investments and soft
measures that impact economic growth are included in the PIDA program.
On the other hand, the transport team will ensure that the increase of the traffic demand
resulting from the macro economic growth can be satisfied and that the transport sector does
not become a bottleneck to the reaching of the vision.
2.3 Time horizons considered

proposal. For Transport Sector, longer time horizons could indeed be justified.
The proposed time horizons, such as agreed upon during the meeting with the Panel of
Experts on 17 June, are:
The horizon 2040 is considered as the “planning horizon”, while 2020 and 2030 are more
considered as “programming horizons” within a rolling planning process approach. Concrete
short-term actions will already be considered on the basis of the NEPAD Short Term Action
Plan (STAP).
2.4 Risk Assessment

The consultant does not anticipate any important risk in conducting this task, assuming that
the necessary data can be obtained from the various stakeholders, in particular from the
RECS. Nevertheless, there may be difficulties with some of the RECs in obtaining all relevant
documents for various reasons.

2.5 Transport data collection strategy

The study will use as basis for the transport data, the impressive amount of data collected
and analyzed by AICD. All the available data has been reviewed in details by the transport
group and it is expected that the data being collected for the new countries now covered by
AICD will be available in the coming weeks.
The AICD studies related to regional transport infrastructure have also been reviewed and
although less exhaustive that the national data, offer a very good base to start the review, in
particular for air transport and ports.
The Consultant will also use other sources of information such as:
Sources of information will be among others:
Official policy documents and websites
Reports and proceedings of councils and development originations/-banks
Existing project and study reports (among which those listed in Annex II of the ToR for
Transport part of project and recent studies by team members for Eastern and Southern
Africa)
Data from the major transport organizations in Africa
Available (inter-)national transport statistics
International trade statistics (national, IMF, UN, EU)
Customs data
Economic reports and statistic
Success and failure stories
In order to implement a transport forecast model for regional traffic, the Consultant will need
to collect data on present traffic at border post for passengers and freight along with the
trends of these traffic volumes over the last few years, and key performance variables for
major corridors (price, time and reliability).
These data are not generally available in a regional database. Some related freight data
have been collected for Eastern and Southern Africa but complementary data for the
remaining regions will need to be collected. The experience in Eastern and Southern African
will be applied for efficient data collection. This includes a focus on border posts, ports and
on a few key interviews with freight forwarders and corridor management authorities.
For passenger data, national air transport authorities collect the data on passenger flows and
air service and it is readily available through contact with these authorities. This will requires
some effort but is feasible. There is also a need for complementary data collection for ground
passenger transport at selected border posts to capture major passenger flows and some
interviews for pricing and transit time with passenger and bus company associations.
The Consultant proposes to visit the RECs and selected countries for the collect of these
complementary information.
During these visits, the consultant will also collect data on specific policy issues describe
under task A1 such as ways and means to tax transit traffic and use of these funds to
maintain regional transport infrastructure etc
The Consultant exposes in this report its collection data strategy specific to each task for
each phase. The reader can therefore find these specific strategies with the task description.

3. METHODOLOGY, ANALYTICAL APPROACH AND

DETAILED TASKS DESCRIPTION
3.1 Diagnostic And In Depth Analysis Of The Sector (Phase 1)
The Consultant will conduct a two-fold review of: (i) regional and continental transport
policies; and (ii) the development of regional and continental transport infrastructure (in
operation, under implementation or planned), as well as associated services.
3.2 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and

Transit (task A1)
3.2.1 Background
Introduction
This tasks aims to evaluate the regional and continental transport (infrastructure) policies per
mode of transport (or intermodal transport) that are currently implemented (or recently
launched). The review will aim at measuring to which extent those policies are contributing
to productivity increases and transport costs reduction, that both should foster regional
integration through trade.
The Consultant will conduct three types of analyses:
The first type of analysis will aim at reviewing key transport policies implemented in Africa
aiming at improving regional integration through facilitation of regional transport services,
The second type of analysis will aim at analysing in which way key transport issues are
dealt with through regional or continental policies,
The third type of analysis will aim at reviewing the mandatory aspect of approved policies
by two or more countries.
The study will review the transport policies approved:
At the continental level by Head of States or meetings of Ministers,

At the RECS level,
At the corridors level.
Review of Transport policies aiming at improving regional integration

Despite numerous efforts by the RECS and corridors secretariat to design and implement policy
reforms to improve transport and services logistic along these corridors numerous bottlenecks
remains and substantially increase to costs of transport. These bottlenecks often result of ill
induced national policies, such as state-owned companies, opaque regulation, bureaucratic
procedures as well as out dated law. Policy makers in Africa should therefore concentrate on
the reform of legal, regulatory and institutional sector framework.
The consultant will collect and analyze all transport policies approved at continental level and
regional level which stated objectives are to improve regional integration, analyze their degree
of implementation and evaluate the impact of these policies on regional integration.

The aim of this task is to identify successful implementation of transport policies, understand the
reason for success and propose recommendation to be implemented by all the African RECS;
Review of main Issues in Transport policies aiming at improving regional integration
The Consultant will analyze in which way the key issues of the sector have or could be
addressed through policies. The analysis will in particular focus on the ways approved policies
dealt with key issues such as:
For the road sector:
Analysis of policies related to the ways and means to better maintain the
Continental/regional road networks
The Consultant will review the various ways African countries may finance or not
maintenance of sections of their road networks that are catering to transit traffic (road
funds or other). In practice, the regional/continental road links are basically part of the
national road networks and are maintained with national funds, plus some supplements.
One exception is the toll roads between Mozambique and South Africa.
The majority of countries charge fees for trucks transiting through their territory. In
principle, these fees are supposed to finance the wear and tear and damage created by
these trucks on the road network and is directly allocated to road maintenance.
The Consultant will review some of these fees/user charges systems for transiting
vehicles (cars, buses, trucks etc), review if the revenues are sufficient to compensate for
the road damages created by the transit traffic and check that these funds are actually
allocated to road maintenance and rehabilitation.
The Consultant will identify best practices and make recommendations on the best ways
to charge these transit traffics (level of the fees, used of the resources, planning of toll
booths and the road works, etc.).
Analysis of policies on norms for the African Road networks
The Consultant will establish a list of the norms and characteristics of the continental/
regional road networks and identify key differences. This analysis will also include the
horizontal and vertical signalling systems as well as safety and security measures
imposed on the network (relation between speed limit and road characteristics, checking
of speed limit, crossing of heavily populated area, etc.).
Based on the norm approved in other part of the world, (more particularly Europe) the
study will recommend rules and regulations for the building and maintenance of the road
networks.
Analysis of policies related to axle load and size of vehicles
The Consultant will review the on-going policies related to axle load limit and size of
vehicles, in particular for large trucks. This analysis will review the reasons advanced by
the various regions or countries to fix the limits, review the key studies relevant to the
topics and make recommendations on the best ways to reach consensus at the
continental level.

A further, dimension will be the regional enforcement difficulties in implementing regional
conventions, in particular how to harmonize the axle loads limits to reduce premature and
costly road damages.
Analysis of policies related to regional truck transport and transit rules
The consultant will review policies related to transit, including trucking market sharing
agreement and treaties restricting competition, customs procedures for transit, delays at
ports and control processes during transit and at borders. Estimates of added costs for
transport will be carried out on typical corridors, as well as impact on low trucks use and
reduced productivity.
Lifting of road blocks controls and abnormal practices reduction through facilitation
regional policies will be reviewed as well as reasons for their failure. The role of shipper’s
councils for landlocked countries will be reviewed as well as ways to alleviate the negative
impact on transit traffic. Recommendations will be made based on best practices.
For the rail sector
Analysis of the policies related to the management of railway network
The consultant will review various policies/recommendations related to the management

of regional railways. Emphasis will be given to the concessioning of railway networks in
order to identify the reasons for success and failure of the numerous railway concessions
presently existing in Africa.
The institutional setting between partner countries for regional railway networks will be
reviewed, and the policies to separate fix installation and permanent way from the
commercial management of rolling stock. Best practices will be reviewed.
Analysis of the policies related to the gauge of the railway networks.
Today, there are four sizes of gauges in use in Africa from 60 cm to 1,45 m. (standard
gauge). Various on-going or recent railway studies seem to recommend the adoption of
the standard gauge. The Consultant will review existing policies related to the size of
railways’ gauge and propose to study all the issues related to the size in order to reach a
consensus on the type of gauge the best adapted to the African railways.
Analysis of the policies related to muti-modal transport and Containers use for regional
land transport
The Consultant will review policies to expand the use of container for land transport and
the requirement for transfer stations or dry ports to ease trans-loading costs to road or
river transport. The policies to develop legal instruments to ease the responsibility sharing
among transport modes and intermediaries will be analyzed and recommendations made
to generalize regional and continental container transport.

For Ports and Shipping
Analysis of policies related to the development of hub and feeder ports.
To day, especially in Western Africa, numerous ports compete for the same regional traffic
from and to the landlocked countries. The Consultant will review policies related to port
competition and identify the best ways to make African ports more competitive and less
costly through, possibly, the implementation of policies aiming at developing more efficient
port system in each RECS.
Analysis of ways and means to increase private sector participation in port investment
Ports and airports are infrastructure perfectly suited for private sector investment. More
and more countries rely on the Private participation for the financing of these
infrastructures. The PIDA study will review which type of policies should be put in place at
national and regional level to establish an enabling environment for the particiatpion of eh
private sector.
Analysis of regional policies related to shipping
Some years ago, UNCTAD has launched a program (the 40/40/20) aiming at helping
developing countries in establishing their own national fleet. This program has not been
very successful (except for Morocco) but has resulted in the establishment of monopoly
situation extremely costly. The old system of conferences has also disturbed free market
in the shipping industry. The Consultant will review on-going policies related to the
shipping industry and make recommendation on the best ways to make the industry more
competitive in an effort to reduce shipping costs.
Analysis of regional policies related to customs transit procedures and their impact
The Consultant will review policies recommended by the World Customs Organization to
speed up transit time at port and give preferential treatment to landlocked countries
goods. These policies will be compared with actual practices and ports delays affecting
goods in
transit as well as national bound traffic. The discrepancies between more efficient port
management for vessels will be compared with current long dwell time for cargo and
containers at ports, costing huge amounts in demurrage fees and inventory costs,
resulting in higher consumer good and intermediate consumption prices.
These customs delays are very costly and render many African products uncompetitive on
regional as well as world markets. Customs reforms will be encouraged to avoid blocking
goods by more recourse to selectivity in defining which lots to control,
For River and Lake Transport
The consultant will review regional policies related to:
The coordination of signalling and dredging on bi-national rivers,

Issues related to customs and trade facilitation, and river crossing for rivers that are as
well as borders between countries,
Policies related to multimodal transport (river/road; river /rail).

For Air Transport
Analysis of the level of implementation of the Yamoussoukro declaration on open skies
The consultant will review regional policies related to this objective for air freedom in
Africa. The analysis will dwell on the slow evolution with the adoption of laws backing
such a principle.
Particular attention will be given to analyze in which ways existing policies aim at finding
regional or continental solutions to the key issues stated above.
The Consultant will analyze the various ways these issues are resolved and when possible,
identify best practices.
Mandatory aspect of the regional policies

One key issue in the harmonization of transport policies in Africa is that various tools are
used to implement these policies but none of these tools is mandatory, leaving each
signatory country free to implement or not the agreement with no penalties. (In the EU, for
example, the no completion with agree policies result in heavy penalties to be paid by the
country not implementing the policies).
Typically the instrument is an agreement among the parties that sets out the objectives,
principles, institutions and mechanisms for jointly managing the development and operations
of transport projects, systems, policies and regulations.
The SADC region, for example, has followed variable routes in developing and signing legal
instruments to govern and manage transport corridor developments and operations. The
instruments adopted include Memorandum of Understanding (TKC, Beira, Nacala, Mtwara),
constitution – (Dar es Salaam) and memorandum and articles of association-(Maputo
Corridor).
The Consultant will review this issue and propose a program to try to find remedy.
3.2.2 Analytical Approach for policies review
For each transport mode, (road, rail, river/lake, maritime, air, pipeline and intermodal
transport) the Consultant will conduct an overall assessment of policies that are relevant for
regional and continental transport development by reviewing, when existing, the quantifiable
objectives that were set. In case of qualitative objectives, the consultant will define
measurable indicators that relate most to these aspects of transport policies.
For each selected issue, the assessment will include:
An identification of the relevant policies and current policy initiatives dealing with each of
the particular issues describe above
The objectives to be achieved by the given policies
The status of implementation (what actions have been undertaken and to what extent
objectives have been achieved?)
The coordinating and supervising organizations (RECS, Specialized institution etc)

The level of harmonization of regional and continental transport polices to resolve the
given issue and possible conflicting problems.
A detailed analysis of the limiting factors, describing the reasons that limited the level of
achievement of the policy objectives.
Summary of evaluation results focusing on:
 Lack of policy principles and interpretation (policy conflicts);
 Lack of political will/political context
 Weak Decision-making & prioritization process at regional and continental level;
 Insufficient Coordination & supervision capability
 Lack of necessary Financial sources;
 Inadequate Institutions, skills & human resources;
 Possible technical inconsistencies
 Other issues
The tools to be developed for the policies analysis
The result of the policy analysis will be a framework that presents the level of achievement
of policy objectives as well as a causal analysis to resolve the key issues stated above. From
the analysis, and on the basis of best practices, conclusions will be made as regards the
feasibility of improving policy implementation in order to achieve the set objectives.
Where possible, an economic indicator analysis will be carried out. However, it is foreseen
that certain limiting factors remain difficult to be translated in quantifiable data (e.g. political
impacts, lack of skills and harmonisation). Therefore the causal analysis will contain a
detailed description of the qualitative elements as well. The same list of performance
indicators will be used in the projection and the outlook for the future.
3.2.3 Data identification and collection strategy
The Consultant will rely on documents to be compiled from available data sources and other
documents to be collected from the RECs, namely:
Previous study reports, regional policy documents, national policy documentation with a
regional impact, legal and regulatory texts, reviews and evaluations of policies.
Meetings, interviews, correspondence with persons involved in transport policy in various
African countries.
As mentioned above the sources of information will be among others:
Official policy documents and websites

Reports and proceedings of councils and development originations/-banks
Existingproject and study reports (among which those listed in Annex II of the ToR for
Transport part of project)
The World Bank’s Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostics (AICD),
Data from the major transport organizations in Africa
Available (inter-)national transport statistics
International trades tatistics (national, UN, EU)

Customs data
Economic reports and statistic
Success and failure stories
3.2.4 Interaction with the specific stakeholders

The interaction with the ADB, the AU, the NEPAD secretariat, the RECS and the Corridors,
both for the collection of the basic information relevant to policies and the review of the
impact of these policies on regional integration is essential. It should be done through visit
to these institutions by the transport team, follows by regular contact and discussion. The
delivery of workshops will be part of a structured approach as requested in the ToRs.
3.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures for Transport (task A2)
3.3.3 Background
The consultant will analyse existing, recently completed regional and continental
infrastructure and associated services, It will also collect data on those under implementation
and those that are in the pipeline.
For the existing regional infrastructure, the Consultant proposes to consider as regional
projects:
All the transport infrastructure projects that have been completed under the second
transport decade (The second African Transport Decade was comprised of 508 transport
projects (373 national projects and 135 regional projects) of which only 239 were
completed at the end of the decade of which 41 were regional projects).
All the transport infrastructure projects that have been completed infrastructure under the
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (The STAP was comprised of 70 projects and extended
to more than 100 all qualified as regional projects)
The transport infrastructure built in a given country that is part of the trans African highway
or of the regional organizations (RECS) approved networks
For the on-going and proposed projects, the Consultant will refer to the actual RECs
programs verifying the status of the projects not completed under the second decade (are
they on-going or still in the pipeline) and the ones of the NEPAD.
3.3.4 Analytical approach for transport Infrastructure
Analysis of completed transport infrastructure projects
All the completed infrastructure projects that will be identified according to the methodology
above will be introduced into the GIS system and the existing capacities of these
infrastructures will be evaluated.
As per the TORS, the Consultant will select from this long list of infrastructure projects a
series of infrastructure projects that seems relevant to represent example of good and bad
practices. The selection will be made in close coordination with the client.
The Consultant proposes that the regional projects to be more carefully studied be selected
according to the the following criteria:

A project which requires multi-country cooperation for:
Inputs (shared transport infrastructure , trans-country railway,…)

Facility (Border crossings, weight bridges, ..),
Outputs shared between several countries
A large project which may affect indirectly regional trade exchanges and transport (for
example, a regional port rehabilitation)
A project which is part of the agreed regional networks defined by the RECS
Special attention will also be paid to regional and continental infrastructure projects that
have, or could have a particular importance in the development of international transport
(and trade) in Africa, hence the major rail and road corridors, hubs, lakes, rivers and ports
around the continent. Hence, a selection will take place on the basis of representativeness
and substance in terms of transport volume, country data like population and GDP, corridor
function, potential for public-private partnership (PPP), project implementation experience,
etc.
For the selected projects, the Consultant will:
Review in which way these projects have an impact on the regional and continental
policies mentioned above;
When the impact of the infrastructure is not at the expected level, Determine the potential
for improving the performance of the existing infrastructures for long term development
prospects;
When necessary formulate the measures to be taken to improve the efficiency of
implementation of programs for the development of regional and continental
infrastructures;
Review all the problems and difficulties encounter during the cycle of the project
The Consultant will pay a particular importance to the fourth point that is a thorough analysis
of the difficulties encountered by the implementation agencies during the cycle of the project.
Infrastructure under execution or preparation
For the on-going and proposed projects, the Consultant will refer to the actual RECs
programs verifying the status of the projects not completed under the second decade (are
they on-going or still in the pipeline) and the ones of the STAP..
The Consultant will select a list of projects to be studied in details in close coordination with
the client. The projects will be selected among:
The projects identified for the AU/NEPAD Short Term Action Plan
AfDB’s proposed Highway Corridors in Sub-Saharan Africa
Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa, World
Bank 2006
The projects of the North-South Corridor (road and rail).

The Central African road links (for instance like the recently announced Nyamitanga-
Ruhwa- Ntendezi -Mwityazo Road Project between Burundi and Rwanda).
The priority projects from the Transport Consensual Masterplan in Central Africa
(PDCT-AC).
The update infrastructure connections (road, rail, maritime ports) analyzed in the study
Trade and Transport Facilitation: East and Southern Africa (ConsiliumLegis Ltd, 2003);
Beira – Lusaka road corridor·
Durban – Lusaka road corridors (via Beit Bridge and via Plumtree)
Maputo – Johannesburg rail corridor·
Durban – Lusaka rail corridors (via Beit Bridge and via Plumtree)
Mombasa – Nairobi - Kampala – Kigali - Bujumbura road corridor
Mombasa – Malaba – Kampala – Kasese rail corridor
Dar es Salaam – Isaka (rail) – Kigali – Goma (road) road/rail corridor
The Main maritime ports around the continent that are linked to regional corridors as
described above. These will include among others Durban, Mombasa, Maputo, Dar es
Salaam and Beira, Abidjan, Dakar etc..
The infrastructure in the so-called SANE countries (South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and
Egypt). These four countries are viewed as Africa’s best chance of producing an
economic bloc comparable to the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China).
These countries represent almost a third of Africa’s population and account for more than
half of its total GDP.
The Main road and railway connections in northern Africa with a regional function.
The Railway connections with private operations/concessions (e.g. as in
Senegal/Mali, the Maputo Corridor, lines in Cameroon, Zambia and Malawi), which may
provide relevant information for the possible future privatization of other lines.
The Main rivers and lakes transport corridors and transshipment facilities with regional
importance.
The Main airports in terms of (potential) international passenger and freight traffic within
Africa.
The structures that facilitate international transport (e.g. border-crossing bridges like the
planned Congo bridge or lengthening of runways).
The essential intermodal facilities (port-road/rail, road/rail, river-road/rail) with regional
corridor importance. etc
As mentioned, the set of projects will be agreed upon between the Consultant and the Client
and will comprise at least five projects, including some projects retained at flagship projects
in the STAP.
When available, transport and economic documentation on these projects will be found from
World Bank, more particularly the AICD study, African Development Bank, AUC, NEPAD,
RECs and other institutions.
As for the selected projects, the Consultant will aim at:
assessing the contribution of these infrastructures to reaching policy objectives; and
highlighting how various factors constrain the quick and smooth implementation of these
projects (e.g. the possible gaps between budgets and initial and present schedules; the
factors causing such gaps; the conditions of coordination and decision-making on the key

parameters of thee projects; and any other facto that impacted the efficiency of the
process of preparation and/or implementation of the infrastructure concerned
3.3.5 Tools to be developed for the transport infrastructure sector

A list of characteristics and criteria will be established in consultation with the client, which
can be used to define quantitatively and qualitatively the relative importance of the chosen
projects/ infrastructures and hence to indicate the representativeness of the analysed
selection.
For the on-going and future projects, the Consultant has decided to use the project record
sheet proposed in the TORS

The problems of data identification and collection are directly linked to the definition of a
regional project. As mentioned in point 2.1 the infrastructure regional projects for the
transport sector will be:
The projects implemented during the second transport decade for Africa
The projects implemented as part of the short term project of NEPAD
The road section recently built that are part of the Trans African Highways
The road section recently built that are part of the RECs priority regional road networks
All transport infrastructure projects part of the regional programs of the RECs

The interaction with the ADB, the AU, the NEPAD secretariat, the RECS and the Corridors, is
essential both for the collection of the basic information relevant to policies and to projects
implemented and for reviewing the impact of these policies on regional integration. It should
be done through visit to these institutions by the transport team, follows by regular contact
and discussion. The delivery of workshops as required in the ToR will be essential in
reaching a consensus on the study progress, orientation and solutions to be recommended.
3.4 Establishment of an outlook for the future Transport

Infrastructure (task B1)
3.4.1 Background
For the PIDA transport planning exercise, a vision will be established of the sector needs for
the next 10, 20 and 30 years in order to identify, design and implement a rational and
efficient investment program. This involves a comparison of the existing and planned
regional infrastructure capacities with the estimated regional, continental and inter-
continental traffic and trade forecasts, leading to the identification of significant gaps and
bottlenecks and aiding in the definition of investment programs that will overcome these gaps
and bottlenecks.
Future regional traffic will build on the level of existing trade and traffic and on the social and
economic growth of the various regions in Africa. Although it is stated in the TORs, that the
base year will be taken as 2007 (the base year of the AICD study), and the past trend for the
period 1998-2007, the Consultant is planning to update these data, where possible, to 2009,
particularly with respect to traffic and trade data. This updating will take advantage of the
recent work of team members in three key regions where many of these data have already

been collected. Forecasts of transport and trade demand will be extrapolated on the basis of
GDP, population, resource development and trade forecasts for the forthcoming 10-20-30
year period.
The Consultant will take particular care in preparing the assumptions for the establishment of
the outlook relative to the development of regional and continental transport infrastructure, as
well as for the demand forecasting methodology to be used, in order to produce realistic as
well as optimistic results. The Consultant’s methodology will analyze the following points:
Endogenous factors such as national and regional development visions, the evolution of
trading partners, the future development of the continent’s major natural resources,
demographic and migratory factors, socio-economic development of nodal points and
increased trade potential following national policies that encourage opening to
international trade and the development of economic communities.
Exogenous factors will also be taken into account, such as the growth or emergence of
economic and trade poles outside of Africa and the patterns of development of major
global transport routes. Technological changes such as the concentration of high capacity
airlines in the Middle East will also be considered seriously.
The econometric models that will be implemented by the Consultant will be designed to
accurately predict future traffic growth along existing infrastructure, and extrapolate that
growth with changes in the performance of that infrastructure. This methodology described
below will take into account the growth resulting from current trends of socio-economic
development, the endogenous and exogenous factors mentioned above and the potential
future traffic flows along routes where there is today no infrastructure(such as the missing
links of the Tran African Highways).
To accomplish this, the Consultant will carry out a two-pronged approach in preparing an
outlook for regional and continental transport infrastructure:
The first, called the incremental growth approach, will be based on the growth of existing
regional, continental and inter-continental traffic flows based on various scenarios of social
and economic growth and the endogenous and exogenous factors.
The second, called the spatial connectivity approach, will be based on improving the
connectivity in Africa, by, inter alia, the finalization of a good paved road network linking all
African capitals and possibly large cities (for example of more than 300 000 inhabitants), the
completion of the Trans African highways, and it will predict related increases in traffic and
trade as a result.
3.4.2 Analytical approach to develop an outlook for the future transport

infrastructure
The Consultant’s analytical approach is summarized in the flow chart in Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1 is for freight transport and Figure 2 is for passenger transport. These follow the
same general approach, but differ in the type of models that are applied in each case. The
freight traffic analysis focuses on trade flows and the passenger analysis focuses on
passenger flows, including air passengers.
The Consultant will identify the present regional, continental and inter-continental traffic, that
is the traffic crossing at least one border post along the key regional corridors and traffic on
major inter-continental routes. For freight, this involves the identification and forecasting of
trade between major trading partners, and for passengers, this involves the identification and
forecasting of major passenger flows by corridor and air route. Forecasts will be based on
past trends for the period 1998-2007 (updated where available) and macro economic data
such as population growth, GDP growth etc.
For freight transport the Consultant will compute future corridor traffic by first forecasting
trade by major trading partner and then predicting corridor choice by using a logit corridor

choice model based on corridor performance (the FastPath approach developed by Nathan
Associates). This will be complemented by using an overall trade gravity model which can
forecast trade based on connectivity, transport/logistics performance and policy variables
related to openness to trade. These forecasts will take into account the endogenous and
exogenous factors mentioned above. This process will be greatly facilitated by using the
techniques and models recently applied by Nathan Associates to all major corridors in
Eastern and Southern Africa. This will involve the gathering of complementary data on traffic
and flows for selected countries and corridors outside Eastern and Southern Africa, and the
use of AICD data on traffic flows, where available.
For passenger transport the Consultant will focus on major passenger flows between
countries and regions and between Africa and overseas regions, including air passenger
flows. The Consultant will develop models for predicting ground and air flows based on a
gravity type model which is related to performance in terms of price, time and reliability of
services which also reflect connectivity.
The Consultant will also review the inter connectivity of all the capital cities, large cities
and important economic poles in Africa (access by road, rail river or air) and identify
missing links. This analysis will essentially focus on road and air transport. The inter
connectivity by lake or rivers is important in some parts of Africa but can be considered as a
second best. The construction of new railway lines will be considered only where there are
significant mineral or other resources which could generate volumes of traffic of at least 2
millions tons per year (and these may be tied to specific resource development projects).
Although railway traffic is much more secure and much less polluting than road traffic, the
regional structuring effect of a railway line, without a resource development project is
generally much less important than the effect of a road and therefore for the purpose of
regional integration through improved connectivity, the priority should be given to the road
sector.
Based on these two approaches (incremental growth and spatial connectivity) and the
modeling methodologies described above to identify the future transport infrastructure
networks of Africa for 2020, 2030 and 2040, the analysis will first identify gaps in the network
and potentially improvements or projects to fill the gaps. The prioritization of the potential
improvements and projects will be conducted through a multi-criteria analysis.
This analysis will be carried out in the context of at least three scenarios (normal growth,
optimistic growth and growth with improved connectivity) that will include the effects of
endogenous and exogenous factors in line with the study objectives.
The Consultant team will prepare an outlook for transport for 2020, 2030,2040, which will
highlight the forecasts, assumptions for different scenarios and the results of the analysis.
Once the transport demand and the future network with committed projects have been
forecast, the Consultant team will use the results to compare the two for the analysis of
potential bottlenecks and constraints. Based on the recent CORE analysis, it is anticipated
that this will uncover major areas for potential improvement (e.g., ports, road and rail links
and border posts). Maps will be produced to illustrate this analysis. This will form part of the
Phase I report.



3.4.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis

The Consultant will use forecasting models for transport infrastructure that will be specified
by the transport projection expert. The proposed methodology will be established in a
methodological brief, to be presented and validated at a workshop
As mentioned above, the Consultant will develop three types of econometric models, in
addition to freight forecasting techniques, which do not qualify as models. These are a
freight corridor choice model, and total trade forecasting model and a passenger
gravity model. The first two models will be built on the recent experience of Nathan
Associates in developing these models for Eastern and Southern Africa, where the models
already exist. Additional corridor choice models will be developed for other regions, based on
data to be collected or estimated in this study. The total trade forecasting model will be
adapted directly from the total trade model results in Eastern and Southern Africa. The
passenger transport gravity model will be developed as part of this study.

In order to implement a transport forecast model for regional traffic, the Consultant will need
to collect data on present traffic at border post for passengers and freight along with the
trends of these traffic volumes over the last few years, and key performance variables for
major corridors (price, time and reliability).
Although these data are not generally available in a regional database, the related freight
data have been collected for Eastern and Southern Africa (including part of Central Africa)
and therefore only complementary data for the remaining regions will need to be collected.
The experience in Eastern and Southern African will be applied for efficient data collection.
This includes a focus on border posts, ports and on a few key interviews with freight
forwarders and/or corridor management authorities.
For passenger data, national air transport authorities collect the data on passenger flows and
air service and it is readily available through contact with these authorities. This will requires
some effort but is feasible. There is also a need for complementary data collection for ground
passenger transport at selected border posts to capture major passenger flows and some
interviews for pricing and transit time with passenger and bus company associations.
For data on transport system development policies, projects and plans, the freight-related
data has already been collected for Eastern and Southern Africa and part of Central Africa,
and only needs to be analyzed for the purposes of this study. Therefore additional data will
only be needed for the countries outside these regions. The Consultant proposes to visit the
RECs and selected countries for West Africa and part of Central Africa for complementary
information on these policies, projects and plans. Visits to the RECs for Eastern and
Southern Africa are also anticipated for communication purposes.
During these visits, the consultant will also collect data on specific policy issues describe
under task A1 such as ways and means to tax transit traffic and use of these funds to
maintain regional transport infrastructure etc

The interaction with the ADB, the AU, the NEPAD secretariat, the RECs and the Corridors,
both for the collection of the basic information on relevant to policies and to review the impact
of these policies on regional integration is essential. It should be done through visits to these
institutions by the transport team, followed by regular contact and discussion.

3.5 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport

Infrastructure (Task B2)
3.5.1 Background
This task builds on the results of Task B1 and extends that work to analyze the options
available for resolving the constraints and bottlenecks that have been identified in B1.
To accomplish this, the Consultant will carry out an approach including:
Economic and financial efficiency considerations of different modes and corridors in
regional markets and for serving multiple purposes.
The compliance of the potential projects or improvements with regional and national
development plans and policy objectives
The trade-offs between potentially conflicting plans, policies and objectives and their
impacts on the regional economy
The possible role of private sector competition in bringing about the potential
developments
Each mode of transport has its own characteristics and is more or less suited to satisfy
specific transport demand than the other. Rail transport, for example, has to run on dedicated
infrastructures which result in high fixed costs and relatively low marginal costs. On the
contrary, road transport has very low fix costs and high marginal costs. As a result transport
of small loads over short distances will be much more costly by rail than by road. Because of
its heavy structure and lack of maniability, transport by rail is usually slower than by road but
it is much less polluting and much more secure in term of safety (much less accident, no HIV
risk,etc).
River transport has low fix costs and relatively low marginal costs and transport by barges is
much less costly than by any other mode of transport. As rail transport, river transport is not
polluting and very safe. Unfortunately, only limited portion of the numerous African rivers are
navigable over long distance. Ports are under equipped and tugs and barges are often old
and obsolete and river and lake transport is very small.
The core of the railway network has been established 50 to 100 years ago and, over the last
30 years, only a few kilometres of railway lines have been built when thousands of kilometres
of road have been constructed. For various reasons, road transport in Africa has developed
at a much higher speed than rail transport and today, less than 10% of imported and
exported traffic at key ports arrive or quit the port on a railway wagon. In some regions of
Africa, particularly in Western and Central Africa, this is partly explained by the lack of
connectivity of the railway networks. But even in Eastern and Southern Africa where all the
railways networks are interconnected, the share of rail traffic remains low.
Despite the speeding-up of the development of road infrastructure over the last few years,
some parts of the Trans African Highways are not as yet competed, particularly in Central
Africa where the road connectivity of all the capital is not a reality. In addition, international
road traffic is hampered by a series of issues such as numerous informal road stops,
inefficient border crossings, lack of harmonization of axle loads and size of vehicles etc.
3.5.2 Analytical approach for transport modal choice

The Consultant’s analytical approach consists first of listing potential improvement options by
type of transport modes, on principles as detailed below, in order to assess their potential

efficiency, compliance and trade-offs. This will be a generic and wide-ranging analysis which
will attempt to identify the full range of possibilities.
The Consultant will identify the types of efficiencies that can be achieved, using bench marks
and Best-in-Region performance analysis, as well as other international benchmarks. These
analyses will take into account the differences in conditions in the different regions compared
to benchmark locations. Efficiencies will be estimated using FastPath norms, among others,
which give quantitative comparisons.
The Consultant will perform an evaluation of costs associated with different outlook options.
This will be done at an order-of-magnitude or indicative level of analysis, based on costs of
similar improvements in similar situations or adjusted for the selected location. Total costs
will be assessed by scenario for the outlook options.
The Consultant will propose different sets of realistic objectives corresponding to scenarios
and the related scenario assumptions. The Consultant will then highlight the most viable
options for each scenario based on this preliminary analysis. As part of this analysis the
Consultant will calculate the potential increase in trade and traffic associated with each
option. This will be an input into a combination quantitative and qualitative multi-criteria
analysis.
Land transport
The objectives of the analysis are to define the best systems of transport (in term of costs,
speed and security) for different categories of transport (transport of passengers, transport of
containers, transport of agricultural product and foods, transport of mineral products, etc.)
over short, medium and long distances.
For the selection of transport mode, the trade offs are between operating costs, depreciation
costs of the infrastructure and maintenance costs.
For each category of transport demand (type of goods and distance of transport) the
consultant will compute the total costs of transport for each mode (road, rail and river) for
typical homogeneous sections in terms of distance and terrain. This will lead to the
preparation of a matrix giving the total transport costs for each mode of transport (or
combination of modes when multimodal is possible) for each category of transport demand.
Depending of the type of transport infrastructure available along a given corridors, this matrix
will indicate the most economical transport system.
It should be noted then, that the best theoretical transport system is often jeopardized by
inappropriate polices or other bottleneck such as:
Slow and costly border crossing (for all modes or for one specific mode)
Informal and costly stops along the roads
Inappropriate road maintenance system
Poorly managed railways
Inadequate systems of dredging and signalling of rivers
Inefficientland transport access to ships within ports (in particular for traffic to and from
landlocked countries)
Lack of freedom for the selection of trucks for traffic to and from landlocked countries
Inappropriate rail connections within the ports etc.
Based on the above analysis (total costs, policies and other constraints) and the traffic
outlook analysed in the preceding chapter, the Consultant will propose a number of realistic

objectives that the African decision makers could set for their long term regional and
continental infrastructure development policies in the transport sector.
Ports
As for land transport, the strategy for port development should aim at minimizing overall port
costs for national and regional traffic. The strategy should also result in reducing shipping
costs in order to increase the competitiveness of African exports and reduce import costs.
Except for the port of Durban in Southern Africa and Abidjan in Ivory Coast, the traffic of the
African ports, often competing one with another (as it is the case in Western Africa) is quite
small resulting in heavy port costs when compared to average port costs in other part of the
world.
The Consultant will conduct a review of port costs in Africa and try to prepare a matrix linking
port costs to level of traffic and port efficiency evaluated with a few port performance
indicators (such as dwell time of ships, number of loaded container per crane per hour, etc.).
The first step of the study will be to analyse ways and means to increase port efficiency in
order to reduce costs. However, it is anticipated that Increase in efficiency of existing ports
capacities will only slightly reduced port costs.
To analyse much larger reduction costs, the Consultant will study in which way a large
increase in the size of a few ports along the African posts, could result in substantial costs
reduction resulting from economy of scale for the traffic transiting through these ports. In this
case, the study would recommend the setting up of a series of hub ports along the coast, the
other ports becoming the feeder ports. The Consultant will compare port costs among the
African ports and review the port costs in other part of the world in order to analyse any
correlation between size of the ports and costs. Trade off need to be assessed with
alternative land transport linkages for transit traffic to landlocked countries in order to
establish whether a lower cost port may not be offset by higher land transport costs.
The next step would be, for each RECs, to identify which of their ports could become hub
and feeders, in order for the region to promote the design and possibly attract financing
partners for port extension programs that would include port physical facilities to be offered to
the other countries of the region as well as simplified transit documents for regional traffic
that will transit trough these ports.
Maritime transport
The port development approach for hub and spokes ports will be complemented by a review
of shipping costs for various cargo and ship sizes. The trend is that unit costs do decrease
with larger size vessels. Modern technology for ship design is aiming at increasing capacities
while reducing the requirement for proportional increase in vessels draft. Thus, the trend at
term, will be minimizing the comparative advantage of natural deep water ports.
The consultant will study in which way large increase in the size of vessels with less
requirement of sea draft will modify the prospects for a few ports along the African costs to
become hub ports. These larger vessels are reducing substantially shipping costs resulting
from economy of scale for all traffic, including transiting through these ports. Based on this
key additional factor, the study would confirm or modify the above recommendations in the
setting up of a series of hub ports along the coast, the other ports becoming the feeder ports.
The next step would be, for each RECs, once are identified which of their ports could
become hub and feeders, to promote these regional ports with shipping lines. Further, they
could possibly attract financing partners to develop feeder lines and extension programs that
would include upgrading port physical facilities catering to feeder lines in the other countries
of the region as well as simplified transit documents for regional traffic that will transit trough
these ports.

Air transport
As for land transport, the strategy for airport development should aim at minimizing overall
airport and air transport costs for international, regional and national traffic. The strategy
should also result in reducing air transport costs in order to increase the competitiveness of
African light and perishable exports and reduce import costs.
To improve competitiveness of air transport based on the adequation of the planes size with
demand volume and frequency, the Consultant will review airports facilities and management
as well as routing alternative between international and regional flights movements t in order
to identify and recommend which airports have a comparative advantage in becoming hub
regional airports and those that could be feeders.
The next step would be, for each RECs, to identify which of their airports could become hub
and feeders air routes, in order for the region to promote the design hub airports and possibly
attract financing partners for their expansion as well as to upgrade feeders airport programs
that would be offered to the other countries of the region as well as simplified transit
documents for regional traffic that will transit trough these airports.
3.5.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis of choice and challenges

The Consultant will use the modelling tools developed in Task B1 to assist in this analysis.
Tools selected by the Consultant will include existing screening models as well as models
developed by the Consultant for similar assignments. The Consultant will use available tools
such as HDM4 for road transport, the UIC costing model for rail transport, UNCTAD port
costing models for port costs.
3.6 Preparation of an outline programme for the development of

regional and continental transport infrastructures (Task B3)
3.6.1 Background
According to the TORs, from (i) the review of regional and continental infrastructure
conducted under the task A2; (ii) the formulation of the outlook for the future conducted
under task B1 and (iii) based on a realistic assessment of resources available for the
transport sector, the Consultant shall present an outline development programme for
transport infrastructure and associated services to the horizon 2040 in which the following
shall be highlighted:
Investment projects by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new ideas)
Institutional and legal framework/policies and other soft interventions that are required
Relevant implementation stakeholders
First cost quantifications and estimated deadlines
Specific choices and decision making issues, in particular regarding projects for which
bankability is uncertain.
With the available information that will collect during the phase 1, the Consultant will not be in
a position to respond to the full extent to this part of the TORS.
However, the Consultant will be able to:

Indicate shortage of capacities on certain corridors based on evaluated existing capacities

and estimated future demand and
Identify the key missing links of the African transport network and
Highlight key issues facing some flagship projects.
The Consultant will prepare a list of projects without being able, as yet, to rank them by
priority.
The Consultant will also have identified the on-going projects conducted at the level of each
REC as well as the projects for which feasibility studies are either completed or on-going and
will prepare a list of these projects as well as “fiche de projet”. But the Consultant will not
be in a position to express a judgement on the opportunity to implement any of these
projects. These analyses will be done during the second phase of the study.
Particular, Attention will be given to the projects included in the STAP of NEPAD that have
not, as yet been completed. For these projects the Consultant will:
Give details on their level of completion
Try to explain the reasons for delays in their implementation and
Make recommendation on the best ways to move these projects forward
It will be however difficult for the Consultant to evaluate, at this stage, the priority of these
projects vis a vis other needed projects that will be required to satisfy future transport
demand.
It will also be difficult to identify the resources more likely to be available for the sector during
the next twenty years. The Consultant opinion is that the donors will not express clear
position on their potential to finance transport infrastructure before having a clear consensus
of all the stakeholders on what will be the strategic framework finally accepted for the sector
and a comprehensive understanding of the total financial needs for the sector.
3.6.2 Analytical framework for the outline program preparation

As mentioned above, the Consultant will only prepare:
a long shopping list of potential projects resulting from capacity problems or from the
missing links
a list of on-going projects and
a list of projects for which a feasibility study is available or on-going.
3.6.3 Tools to be developed for the outline program for transport

infrastructure
As already mentioned under task A2, the Consultant will prepare project fiche for each
ongoing project and project under study following the model indicated in the TORs. The
Consultant will use the modeling tools developed in Task B1 to assist in this analysis.
Comparative analysis of the modes
The Consultant team, including road and other modal specialists, corridor experts and
economists, will review the available options and carry out indicative analysis of the relative

efficiency of each option for each major corridor. Then this will be combined with an analysis
of potential impact on trade and passenger transport, and a policy analysis.
This analysis will be done primarily through desk review and the use of available data bases
of unit costs.
Analysis and Assessment of the alternatives for the future
The Consultant team will carry out a country-by-country and corridor-by-corridor comparison
of potential improvements with development plans and policies. Then the team will analyze
conflicts and trade-offs between objectives of the different plans and policies where they
occur. Potential conflicts include:
Serving resource areas vs. regional integration
Overcoming existing bottlenecks vs. serving resource areas
Improvements supporting private sector development vs. other improvements
Improvements that serve primarily local and regional needs vs. improvements with
continental and inter-continental impacts
Selection of alternative choices with stakeholders
The Consultant team will organize a set of stakeholder workshops for the purpose of setting
realistic objectives in a transparent manner. Different options will be discussed with
stakeholders and the impact of alternative options on funding potential and development of
resources will be discussed. Then the Consultant team will summarize the results and
propose the most appropriate objectives.
3.6.4 Preparation of the Phase I report

The Consultant team will prepare a component of the Phase I report which presents the
results of this task.
3.7 Formulation of a Preliminary Draft Strategic Framework,

Infrastructure Development Programme and Implementation
Strategy for the Transort Sector (Phase 2)
3.7.1 Preparation and holding of transport sector workshop (Task 1)
Background
At the beginning of phase 2, the Consultant will propose a series of workshop to be held with
the key stakeholders. One key objective of these workshops will be to present the basic
results of the phase 1, in particular the methods used for the preparation of the outlooks and
the key conclusions and recommendation reach during the study. The workshops will also be
an occasion to discuss with all the stakeholders the proposed methodology to be used for the
preparation of a strategic framework for the sector and for the selection of priority project
through a multi criteria approach.
The type of workshop to be organized and the persons to be invited to attend them will
depend of the key conclusions reach during the first phase and of the key points to be
presented and discussed.

The Consultant will propose the list of workshops to be organized at the end of phase one
and will prepare the relevant workshop briefs once an agreement would have been
reached with the client on which workshops to organized, with whom and to present which
key issues.
Analytical framework for interactive workshops with stakeholders

The overall objective of these workshops is to get the consensus by the largest amount of
stakeholders on the key conclusions and recommendation of phase 1. To do this the
Consultant proposes to organize various workshops and to return to the stakeholders when a
full consensus could not be reached.
The workshops could be organized:

By mode of transport inviting all the relevant stakeholders to attend these meetings
By RECs for the workshop covering all modes of transport
By group of RECs (such as Southern and Eastern Africa, West and Central Africa and
Northern Africa) and again for each group to hold workshop by modes or group of modes
(such as land transport, ports and shipping and air transport)
Tools to be used for the workshop on the preliminary strategic framework

The Consultant proposes to use a multi-criteria approach to rank the projects to be included
in the infrastructure development programme. The proposed methodology for the multi-
criteria approach will be explained during the workshop and the weight to be given to each
parameter retained in the methodology discussed and possibly approved by the
stakeholders.

policies)
Background
The definition of a strategic framework for the transport sector is essential to identify the list
of priority projects and to reach consensus of the largest number of stakeholders on these
projects.
The basic rules and principles to be used by the Consultant to establish a preliminary draft
strategic framework will be presented and discussed during the sector workshops. Questions
and doubts raised during these workshops will be carefully registered in order to be reviewed
in details before the finalization of the draft. Some basic issues will be restudied by the
Consultant which will set up a permanent dialogue system with the RECs to keep them
informed on the progress of the analysis in an effort to get the largest consensus among the
key stakeholders.
Possible points of divergence between the Consultant position and the position of one or
more RECs will be carefully documented. When relevant, the Consultant will propose a
series of studies and analyses that should help Africa in reaching consensus on these points
of disagreement. These studies and analyses will be to be included in the priority list of PIDA
projects.
Analytical Approach for the preliminary strategic framework

As mentioned above, the objective is to reach the largest consensus on the strategic
framework for the transport sector. The analytical approach to be followed by the Consultant
will be designed in close contact with the Client, once the workshops are completed, the

questions raised by the RECs well noted and the points to be further reviewed and analysed
clearly identified.
Work Breakdown
The preparation of the preliminary draft strategic framework will be conducted during the
weeks that will follow immediately the running of the workshops. The detailed description of
the tasks to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who
in the transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be specified just
after the running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the
workshops.
3.7.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development

programme
Background
The preliminary draft infrastructure development programme will be phased into the short
medium and long term. To harmonize the phasing of the programme with the other
infrastructure programmes under study:
the short term will cover the period 2011-2020
the medium term the period 2021-2030 and
the long term the period 2031-2040.
The programme will be prepared in taking into consideration the outlook for the future that
will be prepared under phase 1, the strategic framework that will be completed at the
beginning of phase 2 after the holding of a series of workshops with the key stakeholders
and the methodology to rank the projects that will also be approved during the workshops.
Analytical Approach in formulating the preliminary draft infrastructure program

In preparing the infrastructure development programme, the Consultant will closely follows
the Terms of Reference, in particular it will conduct the following analysis
The coherence of projects and programmes with the policy and strategic objectives of the
sector.
Preliminary assessments of the financial and economic viability of projects/programmes to
provide an initial criterion for their prioritization. These analyses will be conducted on the
basis of the traffic forecasts established under the task B1 of the first phase and the
transport costs computed under the task B2 of the same phase.
Refinement of the prioritization criteria will be done by using a multicriteria analysis. The
criteria to be used will include factors such (but not limited to):
 the contribution of each project/programme to the attainment of objectives;
 the stage of development of each programme (according to defined milestones);
 an assessment of "soft interventions" such as the difficulties of harmonizing regulatory
frameworks and administrative procedures;
 the prospects for financing. All these points will be part of the many parameters to be
selected to conduct the multi-criteria approach
Role of stakeholders in programme implementation, together with human resource
availability and capacity building requirements. This point is very important, the Consultant
will carefully review the capacity of every institutions selected to prepare and implement
transport infrastructure projects and propose strengthening programmes for these
institutions (capacity building in particular to programme and implement projects, staff

development plan, search for mechanisms to make these institutions financially
independent and sustainable, etc)
The need for complementary policy, institutional, or regulatory measures required to
enable efficient and fruitful implementation.
Potential environnemental impact.
All these criteria that will be used for the selection of projects will be clearly detailed and
explained during the sector workshops in order to reach the largest consensus on the criteria
to be used for the selection as well as their relative weight in the multi criteria approach.
3.7.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process
Background
The Consultant will aim at building a consensus among all stakeholders around a realistic
platform of measures and projects for the transport sector. In order to be successful in the
implementation of these measures and projects, the consultant will
Identify a list of actions, measures and projects to be implemented rapidly and certainly
during the next ten years;
Aim at achieving the largest consensus in Africa for these measures and projects
Identify the respective regional and continental entities and institutions that should play a
key role in the preparation a nd implementation of these measures and projects. Particular
attention will be given to potential competing position and all efforts will be made to
replace possible completion among institutions into an asset for the success of the
projects;
When a project or a list of projects or measures would have been clearly identified and a
consensus built around the projects the Consultant will assist all the stakeholders in
searching for the required financing, in particular by making these projects as bankable as
possible through better presentations, improved feasibility studies etc.
The analytical approach
The Consensus building around key list of priority projects and measures will be achieved
through numerous contacts and discussions with the key relevant stakeholders.
The reaching of consensus will be facilitated with a clear definition of as strategic framework
for the sector and well understood project selection criteria.
For the discussion with the donors community, the chance of success will be increased by,
every time possible, incorporating the projects within a logical context of infrastructure
development within the region of the project. Insisting on the economic necessity of the
projects and demonstrating that the institutional arrangements already in place or to be put in
place will ensure a smooth implementation of the project and an efficient management of the
future operation of the infrastructure to be constructed or improved in particular its
maintenance.
When necessary, the Consultant will design programs to increase the capacity of the
institutions in charge of implementing and managing the priority projects.

4. WORK BREAKDOWN
4.1 DIAGNOSTIC AND IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE SECTOR (PHASE 1)
4.1.1 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and Transit (task
A1)
The analysis of the existing transport policies will be conducted by the Transport Team
Leader and the Transport Strategy Policy Expert. They will be assisted by the Trade and
Customs expert and the Corridors experts for the analysis of policies related to corridors
and trade facilitation and by the modal experts for the review of the specific modal policies
described above.
The Consultant will send brief questionnaires to all the relevant stakeholders requesting
data on their approved and on-going transport policies for each mode of transport. The
consultant will then conduct a desk review of all the data received from the stakeholders
as well as the data collected from all other sources. These reviews will be followed by field
visits for discussion and assessment of the impact of these policies at the AU headquarter
and in all RECs, with a main emphasis with the SADC and ECOWAS and a substantial
review of data submitted by the other RECs.
Based on the analysis of the key policies relevant for the transport sector, the Consultant
will prepare a brief working paper, summarizing the reasons for success of failure;
insisting especially on identifying the reasons for delays, conflicts and failures, in order to
feed into both the prioritization of projects and programmes and into the implementation
strategies and processes.
4.1.2 Review of Regional Infrastructures for Transport (task A2)
For the existing regional/continental transport infrastructures
Data collection: The four modal experts(road, rail, port and air) will be responsible to collect
all available information on the completed infrastructure projects according to the
methodology described in 3.2.3 above, for their respective modes. They will review these
projects and evaluate the existing transport capacity resulting from these projects. This data
collection will be made through desk analysis and visits of relevant RECS.
For the selected list of projects, the assessment of the contribution of these projects
to reaching policy objectives that will have been identified under task A1 will be consolidated
by the Transport strategy policy expert This analyse will conduct to the identification of key
factors to better link infrastructure investment programs to policy objectives.
The assessment of the various factors constraining the efficiency of these
infrastructures as well as the ways to improve their roles will be conducted by each modal
expert. These analyses will conduct to the identification of existing capacity of the regional
infrastructure.
The assessment of the difficulties faced by a few selected projects during the cycle of
the project will be analyzed by the monitoring expert. The projects to be reviewed will be
selected by the team together with the sponsor. These analyses should lead to the
identification of key bottlenecks during the project cycle and the proposal of a list of actions
to reduce these bottlenecks in future regional projects.

For all the projects under implementation and /or preparation

.
The Consultant will try to collect comprehensive data on all the transport infrastructure
projects under implementation or under preparation. This task will be conducted by the entire
transport team during filed visit to the RECS
The preparation of homogeneous project record sheets will be done by the modal experts
with the assistance of the monitoring expert.
The review of all the issues faced by regional projects (possible gaps between budgets and
initial and present schedules) will the start of the Causal Analysis. It will asses all the factors
causing such gaps, the condition of coordination and decision making and the study of any
other factor that impacted the efficiency of the process of preparation and implementation of
the considered projects. This will lead into the identification of key contributing factors to the
successful implementation of regional projects. The main conclusions and recommendations
of these analyses will be summarized in brief working papers
4.1.3 Establishment of an outlook for the future Transport Infrastructure (task

B1)
The task will start with the preparation of an initial vision, development scenario and
preparation of a projection models for the transport demand.
The transport projection expert will them identify the endogenous and exogenous growth
factor by relevant area (RECS, corridor etc;) and calibrate the models for freght and
passenger demand and assess the required data.
Under the guidance of the Transport projection expert, the transport, Teams comprised of
transport specialists (modal experts, corridor expert, multimodal expert etc) working in very
close coordination with the Institutional Development economist will visit all the RECS and a
certain number of countries to collect the missing data. During their visit the tam will: the
following activities:
Collection of data on regional traffic at selected border posts (passenger data for all cases
and freight data)
Development of the data base on air and ground travel volumes for model development, i
Development of the database on passenger service performance measures for model
development, including map production
Development of the database on transport/logistics performance measures for countries
not included in the CORE study for model development (using CORE study methodology),
including map production
Analysis of data for GDP, population, urbanization, trade and traffic forecasting (Using
CORE study methodology, where applicable), including illustrative graphics and maps
During their field trips the transport team will also:
Collect macroeconomic data and national projections (population, GDP,AV agriculture; AV
mining; AV industry, imports, exports)
Analyze all existing infrastructure data
Collect available sector strategies; territory planning schemes etc

Review existing reports with GDP, population and trade projects (in particular, the CORE
study for Eastern and Southern Africa by Nathan Associates and the JICA/MCLI study of
regional transport priorities both of which contain and summarize a wide variety of
pertinent data)
This will be done through visit to

Planning Ministry
Territory Planning Agency
Statistic and population agency
Ministries responsible for mining, agriculture, trade, industry, transport
Investment Agencies (identification of private project pipeline able to benefit from the code
of Investment)
Chambers of Commerce
Port Authorities,
Railways
Freight forwarders and major transporters, etc

The projection expert, based on the above data collection and analysis program, will conduct
the following tasks for the development of relevant models:
Extension of the CORE freight modeling to West Africa and the remainder of Central
Africa
Extension of the CORE total trade model to West Africa and the remainder of Central
Africa
Development of the Passenger Flow Gravity model(s) for ground and air transport
Development of Scenarios
4.1.4 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport Infrastructure (task B2)
The analysis will start with a desk review of all available costing models by the four
modal specialists and an agreement on the models to be used and of the needed data to
be collected.
The modal specialists will then collect available data for the costing in various part of
Africa taking into account the type of terrain and the various climatic conditions present in
Africa.
The next step will be the computation of door to door transport costs for passenger
and different type of goods over various distances of transport, including multimodal.
The transport team will then establish a matrix aiming at identifying the best transport
systems to be used in Africa for passenger and freight.
Working on the basis of corridors, the team will then propose a strategic framework for
the transport sector in the various region of Africa taking into account existing and planned
transport infrastructure. During this analysis, the transport team will consider the social
and environmental impact of the various transport modes as well as the establishment of
the necessary soft measures.

4.1.5 Preparation of an outline programme for the development of regional

and continental transport infrastructures (Task B3)
The data on on-going projects and on projects under study will be collected during visits to
each of RECS
The preparation of the 3 lists of projects will be prepared by the transport team at the end of
phase 1.
The Consultant will primarily use data collected in Task B1. But will also employ unit cost
data from a selection of potential improvement projects. The improvement expected in
corridor performance will also be estimated as a basis for examining economic efficiencies
and potential trade increases.
4.2 Formulation of a Preliminary Draft Strategic Framework,

Infrastructure Development Programme and Implementation
Strategy for the Transort Sector (Phase 2)
4.2.1 Organization and conduct of workshops

The number of workshops that the Consultant recommends holding at the starting of phase 2
as well as which stakeholders should be invited and which members of the transport team
should attend will be proposed in the conclusion and recommendation of the report of phase
The necessary members of the transport team will be present at these workshops.

policies)
The preparation of the preliminary draft strategic framework will be conducted during the
weeks that will follow immediately the running of the workshops. The detailed description of
the tasks to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who
in the transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be précised just
after the running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the
workshops.
4.2.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development

programme
The preparation of the preliminary draft infrastructure development programme, will be
conducted once a strategic framework will be established. This will be conducted soon after
the conduct of the workshops.. The detailed description of the tasks to be conducted to
formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who in the transport team will be
involved, and when they will be involved will be précised just after the running of the
workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the workshops.
4.2.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process

The preparation of the preliminary draft implementation strategy and process will be
conducted once a strategic framework will be done just after the establishment of the
preliminary draft infrastructure development programme The detailed description of the tasks
to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who in the

transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be précised just after the
running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the workshops.
5. WORK PLAN AND TIMELINE

The time distribution for all tasks and time line is given in the study program bar-chart
presented below :

Led Consortium: SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 41

6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT

6.1 Expertise of the team
A team of seven experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 51
man months. The team has the full range of expertise required:
Team Leader
Strategy Policies Expert
Projection Modeling Expert
Road Transport Expert
Railways operation Expert
Port and maritime Expert
Airport transport Expert
The Transport Team will also use the corsssector resources available through the
mobilization of the:
Corridor Expert
Customs facilitation Expert
Monitor Expert
Multimodal Expert
6.2 Tasks assignments

The following table presents the indicative inputs of the various experts in each task.
Three categories of input intensities are considered: less than one week, between
one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of man months for
each expert is presented at the bottom of the table.


INCEPTION REPORT
TWRM SECTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES ........................................... 1
1.1 Africa’s water resources: a largely untapped potential ............................. 1
1.2 Need for enhanced regional cooperation .............................................. 1
1.3 AMCOW and the African Water Vision .................................................. 2
1.4 NEPAD’s Short Term Action Plan (STAP) ............................................... 3
1.5 The African Water Facility (AWF) ....................................................... 4
2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE, AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE
PIDA TWRM STUDY ..................................................................... 5
2.1 Specific objectives ........................................................................ 5
2.2 Time horizons considered ................................................................ 6
2.3 Selected international basins and aquifers ............................................ 6
2.4 Water sub-sectors considered ........................................................... 9
2.5 Types of investments considered ....................................................... 9
2.6 Expected outputs of the study ......................................................... 10
3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH.....................................11
3.1 Applying the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM) at basin level .................................................................... 11
3.2 Supporting the existing planning processes .......................................... 11
3.3 PIDA TWRM Study logic .................................................................. 12
3.4 PIDA TWRM analytical framework and tools.......................................... 13
3.5 Tools to be developed ................................................................... 15
3.6 Data sources and interaction with stakeholders ..................................... 16
3.6.1 Data needs and data collection strategy.......................................................16
3.6.2 Review of the AICD Database and GIS ........................................................18
3.7 Interaction with the stakeholders ..................................................... 19
4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS DESCRIPTION........................20
4.1 Work breakdown.......................................................................... 20
4.2 Tasks of Phase I: diagnosis and in-depth analysis ................................... 21
4.2.1 Task 1.1: Data collection and development of the analytical tools ................21
4.2.2 Task 1.2: Review and analysis of the existing situation ................................22
4.2.3 Task 1.3: Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of
choices challenges.......................................................................................28
4.2.4 Task 1.4: Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional
and continental infrastructure .......................................................................33
4.2.5 Task 1.5: Phase I reporting ..........................................................................34
4.3 Tasks of Phase II: formulation of a draft strategic Framework,
development program and implementation strategy ............................... 35
4.3.1 Task 2.1: Preparation and holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop......35
4.3.2 Task 2.2: Formulation of a draft strategic final report....................................36
4.3.3 Task 2.3 Phase II reporting ..........................................................................39
5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE ............................................................41
6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT...................................................44
6.1 Expertise of the team ................................................................... 44
6.2 Cross-sectoral synergies ................................................................. 44
6.3 Tasks assignments ........................................................................ 44
INCEPTION REPORT/ TWRM SECTION
1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

1.1 Africa’s water resources: a largely untapped potential
The context of the study has been very well described in the ToR. Some key issues are
highlighted here. More than one third of Africa’s population suffers from water scarcity and
half of the African countries will suffer from “water stress” by the year 2025. Although the
crucial and central role of water in socio-economic development is widely recognized,
Africa’s water resources are largely untapped. Lack of appropriate investment in hydraulic
infrastructures and poor water governance are responsible for a critical situation,
summarized below:
the level of water resources used under managed conditions represents only 3 to 5% of the total
available resources;
the per capita water storage is100 times lower than in Europe and North America ;
only 20% of the irrigation potential is exploited ;
in SSA, irrigation contributes only to 10% of Africa’s food production while the average at world
level is 40% ;
only 7% of Africas’ enormous hydropower potential is exploited ;
millions of people are dramatically suffering from the devastating effects of floods, droughts, water
pollution and waterborne diseases:
Hydropower is the main driver for infrastructure development in the Transboundary Water
Resources (TWR) sector. But the investment needs for irrigation extension and better flood
control are also huge. Although irrigated agriculture is by far the main water consumer - an
order of magnitude more than domestic and industrial water use - irrigation development is
view as crucial for achieving food security in Africa.
Infrastructure development in the TWR sector has thus to be considered in the scope of
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) through the building and operation of
multipurpose infrastructure for energy production, flood protection, and navigation, with due
regard to the protection of ecosystems.
1.2 Need for enhanced regional cooperation
Since approximately 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources are of a transboundary nature

(resources shared by at least two countries), it is obvious that equitable, peaceful, and
sustainable water resources management and development is not possible without effective
regional cooperation at basin level and without joint basin wide investments in a shared
benefits approach. Lack of cooperation on the development and operation of large
infrastructures on international rivers has been all-to-often an obstacle to development rather
than serving as a catalyst to regional integration. Increasing population and resulting water
and energy demand may very well exacerbate these challenges. The role of Regional
Economic Communities (RECs) and of Lake and River Basin Organizations (L/RBOs) is to
prevent such political tensions and conflicts between riparian countries and to help them to
negotiate appropriate international agreements. However, several L/RBOs have yet to reach
maturity and gain authority. More needs to be done in terms of creating new cooperation
frameworks and strengthening existing ones. L/RBOs need to be mandated with appropriate
responsibilities based on effective cooperation framework agreements (CFA)

The figure below shows a map of the international river basins of Africa.
1.3 AMCOW and the African Water Vision

The African Ministers' Council on Water (AMCOW) was formed in 2002 in Abuja, Nigeria
(The Abuja Ministerial Declaration on Water) primarily to promote cooperation, security,
social and economic development and poverty eradication among member states through
the management of water resources and provision of water supply services. AMCOW’s
mission is based on a vision outlined in the instruments establishing the African Union (AU).
The Africa Water Vision for 2025 (AWV 2025) is:
An Africa where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water
resources for poverty alleviation, socioeconomic development, regional cooperation,
and the environment.

AMCOW has become a Specialized Committee for water supply and sanitation (WSS) in the
AU. Initiatives have been launched to contribute to the realization of the vision and
declarations made by Heads of State and AMCOW. AMCOW’s role is to provide political
leadership in initiating and sustaining political dialogue towards cooperative development and
management of shared water resources. The institutional structure of AMCOW today
consists of several political and technical entities at the regional and sub-regional levels,
working together to achieve the objectives of AMCOW.
1.4 NEPAD’s Short Term Action Plan (STAP)
NEPAD is working closely with AMCOW. In July 2002 NEPAD prepared and adopted the
Short Term Action Plan (STAP) which outlines the NEPAD response to the challenges facing
the water sector under four areas:
Facilitation
Capacity Buildg
Investment
Studies (to prepare projects)

The STAP was formally adopted by the NEPAD Heads of State and Government
Implementation Committee (HSGIC) and subsequently endorsed by the AU in June 2002.
The STAP was prepared with the participation of the RECs and covers the areas of water,
energy, transport and Information Communication Technology (ICT). In the water sector,
emphasis was placed on development of national IWRM policies, mitigation of floods and
droughts, meeting basic water needs, food and energy security, and cooperative
management of transboundary water resources (TWR), which would enhance regional
cooperation. A recognition of the inadequate knowledge and cooperation on shared water
resources issues resulted in a strong recommendation to launch an a NEPAD STAP
specifically for TWR known as STAP TWR, concentrating on the creation of the enabling
environment for effective cooperative management and development of TWR and initiation of
prioritized projects and programs. STAP TWR considered initially seven river basins:
Senegal and Niger in West Africa, Congo and Lake Chad in Central Africa, Nile in Eastern
Africa and Okavango and Zambezi in Southern Africa. A portfolio of 24 projects, for a total
cost estimated at about US$ 12 million, resulted from this Action Plan, mainly focusing on the
selected shared basins and addressing five themes:
creating an enabling environment for regional cooperation;
supporting the development of national IWRM policies;
meeting urgent water needs;
improving water wisdom;
strengthening the financial base for the desired water future.
Within he scope of NEPAD STAP, the AfDB commissioned a situation assessment study of
the 7 selected river basins. The assessment, published in March 2005, has shown that
progress in cooperative development and management of the basins is at different levels.
Cooperative set-ups range from well -established and reasonably resourced river basin
organizations, bilateral and multilateral inter-state arrangements with limited jurisdiction, and
at one extreme, absence of any basin-wide cooperative arrangements. The main issues and
challenges identified include: lack of a common or shared vision, absence of effective
cooperative frameworks for Transboundary Water Resources Management (TWRM),
inadequate capacity, inadequate financial base, and weak political will, with some specific

variations in different basins. Some basins have stalled programs, while others require
support in implementing initiated programs, geared at advancing the cooperative
engagements to higher levels.
1.5 The African Water Facility (AWF)
An important development was the launch within NEPAD STAP of the African Water Facility
(AWF) in 2004. This facility, led by AMCOW, is a specific water fund hosted and managed by
the AfDB. The establishment of the AWF is considered as a significant achievement of
NEPAD STAP.
It is intended that the AWF will seek to improve the enabling environment and to strengthen
water resources management so as to attract the substantial investments necessary for the
development and management of water resources, meeting urgent continental water needs,
strengthening the financial base for sustainable and effective water distribution and
governance. Major objectives of the AWF include attracting and making effective use of
increased and appropriate investments needed to achieve national and regional water sector
targets in Africa.
In the water sector as a whole, there is a huge financing gap and insufficient commitments.
According to the AWV, the investment required is 20 billion US$/year to attain MDGs and
AWV’s targets. The Inhibited investments in water resources development is largely due to
poverty and indebtedness.

2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE, AND EXPECTED

OUTPUTS OF THE PIDA TWRM STUDY
The specific objectives of the study are to enable African decision-makers to:
establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental TWR
development infrastructures based on shared development vision, strategic objectives and
sector policies;
establish a TWRM infrastructure development program articulated around priorities
established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons by L/RBOs and RECs ;
prepare an programme implementation strategy and processes including, in
particular, the improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and
administrative processes); a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options including
measures for promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in
infrastructure development.
The strategic framework and investment program will aim at significant increase of the water
storage and management capacity for irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply,
hydropower generation, navigation, environmental needs, and flood control. It will also aim at
a more sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources. The strategy will be to strengthen
the leading role and capacity of the L/RBOs for sustainable management of the shared water
resources. The study will analyze the requirements, gaps and justification for the significant
investments needed for the development of the resources as well as the options for
maximizing shared benefits or minimizing costs.
As specified in the ToR, the following objectives will be taken into account:
alignment of the long-term perspective with the Africa Water Vision 2025;
ensuring water security to meet future increases in demand for water and enable the
socioo-economic development of the regions of the African continent;
enabling the equitable allocation of water resources among competing water uses for
sustainable development;
equitable sharing of benefits arising from the shared basin resources;
adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts and variability in weather patterns;
enhancing regional cooperation by deploying the principles of IWRM, particularly for
shared water resources through the L/RBOs and regional water protocols;
ensuring AMCOW fully supports the outputs;
environmental protection and management as advocated by the IWRM principles.
The PIDA TWRM investment program is seen as a continuation of the NEPAD STAP and will
thus take a close look at the projects identified through this initiative and build on the
experience gained and the actions already undertaken by the AWF in the area of TWRM.
While the AWF is gaining experience, PIDA should help the AWF to move to larger
infrastructure investments to ensure water security in Africa.

2.2 Time horizons considered

proposal. For Water Resources Development longer time horizons could indeed be justified.
The proposed time horizons, such as agreed upon during the meeting with the Panel of
Experts on 17 June, are:
The horizon 2040 is considered as the “planning horizon”, while 2020 and 2030 are more
considered as “programming horizons” within a rolling planning process approach. Concrete
short-term actions will already be considered on the basis of the NEPAD Short Term Action
Plan (STAP) and the TWRM projects identified by the African Water Facility.
2.3 Selected international basins and aquifers

As presented in the background, there are 60 international river basins in Africa. Within
these basins, there are also large inland water bodies such as Lake Victoria and Lake Chad.
Not all these basins can be addressed during the study and a selection is needed.
Complying with the ToR, the Consultant proposes to start with the following basins on the
basis of a well balanced selection made by AMCOW in 2004 in large consultation with the
stakeholders:
Region Basin, lake and/or aquifer Key organization

Southern Africa Zambezi Zambezi Watercourse Commission
(ZAMCOM)
Okavango
Okavango Basin Commission
(OKACOM)
West Africa Senegal Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du
Fleuve Sénégal (OMVS)
Niger, including and Lullemeden aquifer
Niger Basin Authorithy (NBA)
Central Africa Congo Commission Internationale du Bassin
du Congo (CICOS)
Lake Chad
Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC)
East Africa Nile Basin Initiative, including Lake (Nile Basin Initiative, including Nile-
Victoria SEC, ENTRO and NELSAP-CU)
Lake Victoria Basin Commission
(LVBC)
North Africa Northern Sahara aquifer Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel
(OSS)
Nubian Sandstone aquifer
Center for Environment and
Development for the Arab Region
CEDARE:
The other basins are at all not excluded from the PIDA investment program, particularly for
the longer term. The above selection has to be seen as a starting point which is appropriate

with the available resources and time constraints, but concrete actions for other international
basins will also be identified in the course of the study. Recently, some basins such as the
Orange/Senqu or the Volta have indeed undegone relevant progress as regard to
transboundary cooperation
The map below shows the geographical coverage of the 7 river basins and the three shared
aquifers.
These basins cover 35 countries and nearly 45% of the total area of the African continent. All
of them have a coordination mechanism (Basin Commission, Basin Authority, etc.), but their
mandates, political strength and resources are quite variable from one basin to another.
The table below presents for the selected basins, their area, the RECs potentially involved
and the L/RBOs:

% of
River Area contin
Countries RECs involved* L/RBOs
Basin (sq.km) ent
area
Organisation pour
UMA, CEN-
Mauritania, Mali, la Mise en Valeur
Senegal 436,000 1.6 SAD, ECOWAS,
Senegal, Guinea du Fleuve
(WAEMU)
Sénégal (OMVS)
Nigeria, Mali, Niger,
UMA, CEN-
Algeria, Guinea,
SAD, ECOWAS, Niger Basin
Niger 2,113,200 7.5 Cameroon, Burkina
ECCAS, Authority (NBA)
Faso, Benin, Ivory
(WAEMU)
Coast
Lake Chad basin
Chad, Niger, Central
UMA, CEN- Commission
African Republic,
SAD, ECOWAS, (LCBC), Basin
Lake Chad 2,388,700 8 Nigeria, Algeria,
(WAEMU), Commission for
Sudan, Cameroon,
(CEMAC), IGAD Strategic Planning
Libya
(BCSP)
Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile Basin
Uganda, Tanzania, Initiative (NBI),
CEN-SAD,
Kenya, Congo
ECCAS, Lake Victoria
Nile 3,031,700 10.3 (Kinshasa), Rwanda,
COMESA, EAC, Basin
Burundi, Eritrea,
IGAD Commission
Sudan, Central
African Republic (LVBC)
Angola, Burundi,
Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Commission
ECCAS,
Congo (Kinshasa), Internationale du
(CEMAC),
Congo 3,691,000 12 Congo (Brazaville), Bassin du Congo-
COMESA, EAC,
Gabon, Malawi, Oubangui-Sangha
IGAD
Rwanda, (CICOS)
Sudan,Uganda
Zambia, Tanzania,
Zambia, Angola,
Zimbabwe, Zambezi
SADC,
Mozambique, Watercourse
Zambezi 1,385,300 4.5 (CEMAC),
Malawi, Tanzania, Commission
ECCAS,
Botswana, Namibia, (ZAMCOM)
Congo (Kinshasa)
Okavango Basin
Botswana, Namibia,
Okavango 706,900 1 ECCAS, SADC River Commission
Angola, Zimbabwe
(OKAKOM)
*if one or more member countries of the REC are covered fully or partly by the basin
One difficulty of the study is that these River basins cover several RECs as shown in the
table above. This means that one REC does not have all the riparian states within its
members. This is illustrated in the figure below for ECOWAS, covering partly three major
River basins considered in this study: the Senegal basin, the Niger basin, and the Lake Chad
basin. The three basins all have riparian states, which are not members of ECOWAS.

2.4 Water sub-sectors considered

The TWR sector will only be considered to the extent that there are aspects of a regional
nature, primarily through links with storage and multipurpose water use, irrigated agriculture,
hydropower, transport in lakes and rivers, drought and flooding and environmental
management. Issues that are within the scope of national or local level actions will only be
considered in as much as the impact of such actions is felt at transboundary level.
The water sub-sectors considered in the sector study are thus primarily irrigation,
hydropower, and lake and river transport. WSS is generally covered within the scope of
national and local actions. Nevertheless, in the analysis (projections) of future water
demands (outlook for the future), the domestic and industrial uses will be taken into account.
Let us emphasize here that water withdrawal for irrigation is by far the largest part of the total
water withdrawal of large rivers and/or groundwater systems and accounts already for 85%
of the total water withdrawal in Africa.
2.5 Types of investments considered
The study will consider two types of investments: (i) investments in physical infrastructure, or
“hard” investments, and (ii) investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation,
or “soft” investments.
The “hard” investments are the hydraulic infrastructures having significant transboundary
impacts and requiring the cooperation between at least two countries:
major dams used for hydropower generation, irrigation, water supply, and flood control;
we will encourage multi-purpose use;
major irrigation schemes/areas;
major intra-basin diversions
major inter-basin water diversions;
The “soft” investments are investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation:
including:
creation of new and the strengthening of existing L/RBOs;
information and knowledge base, including hydrometric networks : considering that there
is a huge lack of planning data and knowledge;
planning and implementation capacities, modelling tools and Decision Support Systems;
communication and public awareness;

monitoring capacities;
flood early warning systems.
The Consultant will promote the concept of “integrated investment programs”, with a long-
term perspective, focusing on tangible outputs in a step-wise approach. An important point
would be to build within the projects a resource mobilization component in order to ensure
financial sustainability. Another important aspect is to take into account the environmental
dimension by considering the ecosystems as one of the users of the water resources,
avoiding mistakes of the past.
2.6 Expected outputs of the study
The TWRM sector study will contribute to the overall study outputs, which are described in
detail in the general part of the Inception Report.

3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH

3.1 Applying the principles of Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM) at basin level
The most sustainable way to plan major investments in infrastructure for international Rivers
is through an integrated basin approach, applying the principles of IWRM, and strengthening
the role and capacity of L/RBOs.
IWRM is a management approach or philosophy promoting a number of principles, initially
known as the Dublin Principles, and further developed at the occasion of several
international conferences:
integration, dialogue and coordination;
participation and decentralization;
equity and gender;
considering water as an economic value;
transparency and communication;
sustainability of the resource and protection of ecosystems.
The approach adopted for the TWRM sector study will keep these principles in mind.
3.2 Supporting the existing planning processes
Several L/RBOs are currently in the process of preparing integrated development plans,
often with the support of the international donor community1.
The consultant will collect the available information on the ongoing basin-wide “bottom-up”
planning processes, in which a large basis of stakeholders are consulted in the countries
involved. Remaining in line with the bottom-up and participatory IWRM approach as well as
with the subsidiarity principle, the planning of new infrastructures will not shortcut the existing
planning processes undertaken by the L/RBOs. Emphasis will also be put on the application
of the subsidiarity2 principle that a central authority should have a subsidiary function,
performing only those tasks, which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or
local level.. The figure below shows the position of the PIDA TWRM study as regard to the
ongoing project and program planning and processes.
1
An example is the “Schéma Directeur d’Aménagement et de Gestion des Eaux du fleuve Sénégal (SDAGE)” of
the OMVS, supported by he EU). A Basin Plan has recently been approved at Heads of States level for the Niger
basin. Another example is the IWRM Congo Basin Strategic Action Plan, with 140 projects proposed for a budget
of approximately 1.5 billion €.
2
The principle that a central (or regional) authority should have a subsidiary function, performing only those tasks
which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or local (national) level.

If for a L/RBO, the existing planning capacity an/or the planning process inexistent, the
Consultant will include in the PIDA TWRM investment program two types of investments in a
two-track approach:
strengthening of the existing planning capacity and process (including information base,
models, etc);
formulation of investment plans, using external resource in order to accelerate the
process.
Wherever appropriate, the Consultant will promote the concept of integrated investment
programs at basin or sub-basin level rather than isolated investment projects. Indeed,
optimal combination of physical investments, within an approach of shared benefits, could be
a solution to overcome international disagreements on isolated projects.
3.3 PIDA TWRM Study logic
The study logic is presented in the diagram below

3.4 PIDA TWRM analytical framework and tools
The analytical framework of the study is presented in the diagram hereafter.

The review of regional and basin wide policies, strategies, institutional capacities and legal
frameworks, and the review of existing development plans and feasibility studies will allow
the identification of pipeline projects (hard and soft) and of planning capacity development
needs. For each selected basin, the inventory and review of existing and proposed
infrastructures, including dams, water diversions, flood control structures, navigation
facilities, etc, will be done together with an inventory of the main consumptive and non
consumptive use centers (for irrigation, water supply, energy).
The Consultant will also assess the existing surface water and groundwater resources,
taking into account climate variability and change. This will be done mainly on the basis of
existing studies.
The horizontal team will provide growth scenarios (outlook for the future) in terms of
population, GDP, agriculture, industry, agriculture. The energy team will provide information
on the future energy needs and the transport team will provide information on the future
navigation development needs. Future demands for food products from irrigation will be
derived from assessments made by the FAO. Those data will allow making projections on
the future food, energy, and water supply demands by basin. The irrigation expansion
potentials for each basin will be analyzed in the light of the future demands on the one hand
and of the available water resources on the other hand. This in turn will allow to analyze the
sensitivity of the basins to water scarcity.

1
Important concepts here are the concepts of “water stress” and “water scarcity”. Water stress
and water scarcity occur when the demand for water exceeds the available amount during a
certain period or when poor quality restricts its use. It is commonly considered that a country
or region is said to experience "water stress" when annual water supplies drop below 1,700
cubic meters per person per year, At levels between 1,700 and 1,000 cubic meters per
person per year, periodic or limited water shortages can be expected. When water supplies
drop below 1,000 cubic meters per person per year, the country or region faces severe
"water scarcity". Water stress can be assessed using indicators such as the Criticality Ratio
(CR) defined by Alcamo, Döll, Kaspar, & Siebert (1997), which is “the ratio of water use to
water availability in a watershed or country”. They estimated the distribution of water use and
availability on a global scale and showed with scenarios how this might affect the water
supply of humans around the globe until the year 2075. This and subsequent studies will be
used for analyzing the sensitivity of the selected basins to identify which are the most likely to
suffer from increasing water stress and water scarcity. Information and knowledge on this
matter is also available at UNESCO, UNEP, and FAO.
The analysis will allow at the end - and in an iterative process - to define for each basin
realistic development targets, mainly in terms of irrigation expansion and hydropower
generation, which have to take into account the environmental constraints. For the targets
defined, it will be possible to simulate future water demands, which will remain compatible
with the concept of “reasonable use” of the available resources. For proposed infrastructures
(pipeline “hard” projects), the Consultant will roughly evaluate (not in details because this
would need much more sophisticated modeling tools)) the degree of potential transboundary
impacts based on a set of criteria such as the ratio between the volume of the reservoir and
the discharge of the River, the location within the River system (upstream, downstream,
mainstream, tributaries). The analytical framework will also :
allow the analysis of potential conflicts between water uses/sectors
assess the trade-off relationship between competing sectors and between upstream and
downstream users
determine the economic value of cooperation in planning and managing transboundary
infrastructures
provide updates of infrastructure performances.
3.5 Tools to be developed

An online document management system will be developed to manage the documents,
reports, and data received from AfDB and collected by the team members.
A projects/programs databases will be developed with an inventory of all the main regional
projects/programs under implementation and preparation. The structure of the database will
be compatible with the format of a project sheet which will agreed upon with the client
For each selected basin, a Geographical Information System (GIS) will be developed using
the ArcGIS software. The GIS will allow the management, visualization, and analysis of
socio-economic and physical data: population, cities, hydrology, hydrography (rivers and
lakes), topography (digital elevation model), existing and planned hydraulic structures, main
irrigated areas, irrigation potential, hydropower potential, groundwater resources, fllood-
prone areas, wetlands, etc.. Existing and planned infrastructures and development areas will
be visualised on maps and on network diagrams such as illustrated in the figure below for the
Zambezi River Basin.
Led Consortium 15
Modelling tools will be developed to make the projections of future water requirements (both
consumptive and non-consumptive uses). For agricultural water use, the Consultant will use
the CROPWAT model, developed by the FAO. Future domestic and industrial water supply
needs will be estimated on the basis of the population and GDP projections provided by the
horizontal team and on assumptions proposed for the per capita consumption ratios. These
assumptions will be discussed during the methodology validation workshop.
3.6 Data sources and interaction with stakeholders
3.6.1 Data needs and data collection strategy
The study will require a large amount of data and documents relating to (non-exhaustive list):
Basic data on each selected basin (hydrography, hydrology, climate, irrigation potential,
existing infrastructure, major cities, etc.);
Socio-economic data on population (urban and rural), economic activities, urban
development, industry, etc;
Policy and strategy documents;
Legal documents (cooperation framework agreements);
Investment/development plans at continental, regional, basin, and national levels;
Master plans, feasibility studies, project information;
Impact assessment studies of projects and programs.
The data collection process will be crucial, especially in relation to cooperation and reaction
times of the stakeholders in preparing and forwarding these data. The AfDB has sent official
letters of introduction to the RECs and L/RBOs, requesting their collaboration in making such
documents available to the study team. To facilitate this process, all RECs and L/RBOs will
be visited at an early stage and a questionnaire/list of required documents will be sent before
the visit.
The table below presents the types of documents and data required and the respective data
sources.

Types of documents and data needed Possible data sources (not exhaustive)
Continental and regional policy and strategy documents. AfDB, WB, AMCOW, AUC, NEPAD, ICA,
UNECA, RECs
Studies on Africa’s water resources and water needs, UNECA, FAO (AQUASTAT), IWMI
irrigation potentials, hydropower generation, navigation, (Challenge Programme), IFPRI, ICOLD,
water supply and sanitation, environment, etc. Aqua-Media Intl., International Hydropower
Association IHA
Global data on water resources and water scarcity maps Internet search and contacts with UNEP,
(per country and per basin). UNESCO, World Resources Institute (WRI),
Research Institutes
Macro-economic reports and data on population (urban Provided by the horizontal team.
and rural), economic activities, urban development,
industry, economic indicators; etc.
Basin policies and strategies, basin development plans, Contacts with the selected L/RBOs,
master plans, and investment opportunity studies; including OSS and CEDARE.
L/RBO’s institutional setup (status and organization), Contacts with ANBO ,CAPNET, GWP.
legal frameworks;
Own consultants network.
Lists of ongoing and planned projects and programs;
Basin wide studies on irrigation potential, hydropower
potential, navigation, etc.
Scoping studies, pre-feasibility and feasibility studies.
Relevant Consultants reports.
Donor policies and lists of ongoing and pipeline projects Contacts with AWF, AfDB, WB, EC, Other
and programs. Development Banks and donors.
National water policy and strategy documents (including Mainly through internet search
poverty reduction and development strategy).
WSS statistics per country on access, financial Mainly the WB AICD database.
indicators, pricing, water production, water consumption,
water availability par capita per year, etc.
National irrigation sector reviews, urban water supply Mainly through internet search.
sector review, sanitation sector review, irrigation
investment needs, etc.
GIS data (shapefiles) on topography, basin limits, Public domain global data sets (ArcGIS
hydrography, hydrology, climate, main towns, landuse. shapefiles):
Transboundary freshwater dispute
database (Oregon State University)
Hydrosheds and Hydro 1K from USGS
GRID Database
Global runoff data center GRDC
(Koblenz) including hydrological
datasets of 7000 stations worldwide ;
Global Lakes and Wetlands Database
GLWD, from WWF : see website.
AICD shapefiles on roads, cities, country
boundaries, topography, transmission
networks.

Databases on existing and planned dams and on FAO database on hydropower dams, AICD
existing and potential irrigated areas. database, datasets of ICOLD, Aqua-Media
Intl.,datasets of IHA.
Contacts with FAO and AQUASTAT
Database
Powerpoint presentations on programs and projects Internet search.
(AWF, AICD WB).
Prior to the field visits, questionnaires will be sent to each L/RBOs to request the data and
documents according to the checklist given below.
Checklist of data and information requested from L/RBOs

L/RBO’s institutional setup (status, organization, mandate);
Legal frameworks;
Basin wide policies and strategies;
Basin development and investment plans, IWRM Plans, Master Plans;
Investment opportunity studies and scoping studies;
Lists (and location) of ongoing projects and programs;
Lists (and location) of projects and programs in the pipeline;
List and characteristics of existing hydraulic infrastructures (with GIS files and maps if possible);
List and characteristics of main irrigated areas (with GIS files and maps if possible);
List and characteristics of planned hydraulic infrastructures (with GIS files and maps if possible);
List and characteristics of potential irrigated areas (with GIS files and maps if possible);
Other relevant GIS files and maps;
Synthetic hydrological and climatic data;
Studies on basin wide irrigation potential, hydropower potential, navigation potential, etc.;
For recent and planned infrastructures and for infrastructures under construction: pre-feasibility
studies, feasibility studies, impact assessment studies, evaluation reports, project documents;
Any communication material and presentations on the organization, programs and projects.
3.6.2 Review of the AICD Database and GIS
As requested by the ToR, the Consultant has considered carefully the extent to which the
data and models which have already been collected and developed by the AICD team can
be utilized to establish the outlook for the future.
Concerning the water sector, AICD has collected data from 2 sources : national data and
data provided by utilities. While there are useful data at national level, the AICD database is
very poor in terms of TWR, as this was not the purpose of the project. Nevertheless, the
following data are of interest for the PIDA TWRM study:
WSS statistics per country on access, financial indicators, pricing, water production, water
consumption, water availability par capita per year, etc.;
Irrigation, urban water supply, and sanitation sector reviews;
Irrigation spending needs;
Country reports for 11 countries (but with limited data on water);
A presentation on tings journalists need to know about Africa’s Water Sector (synthetic
figures on water resources and WSS issues);

Chapters in the Flagship report on Africa’s infrastructures: Water resources, Irrigation,

Water supply and Sanitation;
ArcGIS shapefiles : on roads, cities, country boundaries, topography, transmission
networks, power plants, hydropower dams (existing and planned) with hydropower
capacity.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been contracted by the AICD
project to develop digital maps of the spatial extension of irrigation potential (small scale and
large scale). But the Consultant would like to express some reservations about the
assumptions and approach used to produce these maps and on the conclusions about the
rates of return of small scale and large scale irrigation. The issue for large scale irrigation is
that only the irrigated area in the country where a dam is located has been taken into
account in the computations of returns on investments, while in many cases water is also
used in downstream countries. Concerning small scale irrigation, returns on investments
have been calculated on the basis of 10km by 10km pixels, which in many countries is not
relevant.
Concerning AICD models, no model is available yet but a spending needs model for Water
Supply at country level will be available soon. This might eventually be of some interest for
projecting water demand scenarios.
3.7 Interaction with the stakeholders
Interaction with stakeholders is of utmost importance. The four Sector Leaders and the
Programme Manager visited the AICD World Bank project during the week of 10 to 14 Mai
2010. During this mission, a meeting has also been held at IFPRI. Official letters of
introduction have been sent mid June 2010 by the AfDB to the key stakeholders. A meeting
has been programmed with the African Network of River Basin Organizations (ANBO) on 1
July 2010. The AMCOW Secretariat, RECs involved in TWR and L/RBOs will be visited in
the period July-September, depending mainly on their availability. More details on the dates
cannot be provided at this stage. Several informal contacts have already started during the
inception phase. Other key stakeholders which will be contacted informally include the FAO,
IFAD, IWMI, UNEP, ICOLD, IHA, GWP, EC, Donors, Research Centres, Consultants, etc.

4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS

DESCRIPTION
4.1 Work breakdown
The figure hereafter presents the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of Phase I and Phase II.

4.2 Tasks of Phase I: diagnosis and in-depth analysis
The kick-off meeting will establish a vision and macro framework to inform the Consultant’s
assumptions and projections.
The tasks of Phase I are:
Data collection and development of the analytical tools;
Review and situation analysis (diagnosis) of policies, strategies, institutions, regulatory
frameworks, and existing and planned infrastructures (hard and soft);
Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of choices and challenges
(setting objectives and targets);
Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional and continental physical
infrastructures.
Phase I will lead to the production of Phase I Report.
4.2.1 Task 1.1: Data collection and development of the analytical tools
Task 1.1.1: Data collection and management
The data needs and data collection strategy has been described in section 3. During the
inception phase, the Consultant has already established contacts with a number of
stakeholders in order to identify the nature and scope of existing information sources.
Extensive data collection has also started with the screening of the Consultant’s own data
resources and through the consultation of relevant websites. AfDB has provided an important

amount of documents and data. All documents relevant to the TWR which have been listed
in Annex I of the ToR have been received and consulted, including the STAP Reviews of
L/RBO’s and other studies conducted by key organizations in the sector. Data collection will
continue during Phase I through systematic web searching and direct contacts with the
RECs, L/RBOs and other stakeholders through email and field visits. The team will also
benefit from its personal relations with many stakeholders.
Task 1.1.2: Development of the analytical tools: databases, and GIS
The tools to be developed have been described in section 3.
4.2.2 Task 1.2: Review and analysis of the existing situation
Task 1.2.1: Review of continental and regional TWRM policies, institutional and
regulatory frameworks
Objective and analytical approach
This review will cover the continental and regional policies implemented to date TWRM in
Africa. It will address as precisely as possible the following questions:
what is the scope of existing continental and regional policies, institutions, and regulatory
framework regarding TWRM ?
to what extent the existing policies are helping to resolve the main issues ?
to what extent have the policies been applied and the objectives been achieved ?
what are the limiting factors that impede the achievement of these objectives ?
For the analysis of policies and strategies, the Consultant will refer to the approach described
in the general part of the Inception Report and will consider two distinct levels of analysis:
analysis of the level of achievement of policy objectives;
causal analysis: reasons and factors (constraints) which limited the level of achievement
of the policy objectives.
A key factor for success of a regional policy or strategy is the consistency between regional
and national levels, the sense of ownership of the member states and their level of
participation in the policy and strategy formulation.
Review of policies at continental level
AMCOW provides political leadership, policy direction and advocacy in the provision, use
and management of water resources for sustainable social and economic development and
maintenance of African ecosystems. The TWRM issue is gaining more and more political
attention. There are a number of key declarations such as the Abuja Ministerial Declaration
(2002) on Water; the Sirte Declaration (2004) on the challenges of implementing integrated
and sustainable development on agriculture and water in Africa; the Declaration of
Johannesburg (2007) on water for development and the fight against poverty; the Ministerial
Declaration ending the First African Water Week (2008) that focused on “Accelerating Water
Security for socio-economic development of Africa” and the Heads of State Sharm El-Sheikh
Commitments for Accelerating the Achievement of Water and Sanitation Goals in Africa
(2008). These declarations create awareness, symbolize political commitment and aim at
ensuring an enabling regulatory and institutional framework in the management of water
resources.

The Consultant will first identify, collect and review the existing African wide policy
documents relating to TWRM. The main entry point will be AMCOW and the African Water
Vision 2025. Other policy documents may relate to institutions, infrastructures, environment
protection or knowledge management.
Review of policies, institutions, and legal frameworks at basin level
Africa has 60 international rivers, covering 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources. But only a
handful of these rivers have strong co-operative arrangements. And only a few have real
responsibility for joint development of common resources. These organizations are often
constrained by some or all of the following:
Absence of clearly defined mandate to act on behalf of the riparian countries;
Technical and managerial weaknesses at the level of the secretariat of the basin
organization;
Inadequate funding by member States of the basin;
Inability to mobilize external funds for pre-investment studies and for investment;
Political selection of key personnel.
According to the AU’s guidelines for establishing a cooperative framework agreement for the
integrated management of transboundary basins (2007), the factors that determine the
performance and effectiveness of these basin organizations include:
the political commitment of the riparian states;
the focus on socio-economic development;
the focus and technical precision of their objectives;
the number of states in the basin;
the support from external agencies;
the emphasis placed on the processes involved in the development of infrastructure
beyond mere planning.
The Consultant will also refer to the key performance indicators of River Basin Organizations
developed by B.P. Hooper (USGS, 2006) and make recommendations for further
developments/improvements.
As a starting point for legal cooperation agreements, L/RBOs often refer to the UN
Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of Intl Water Courses (1997). Among various
doctrines, the Theory of Community of Interest or Doctrine of Limited Territorial Sovereignty
is now widely accepted. The main principles of cooperation are sustainable development,
subsidiarity, equitable and reasonable utilization, and prevention of significant harms to other
riparian States. Cooperation on the basis of equity and reasonable use is needed to advance
transboundary regulation of rivers against floods and droughts, groundwater management
and protecting watersheds and wetlands. Cooperation, coupled with transboundary benefit
sharing, may allow countries to leverage the productive potential of their shared rivers, lakes
and aquifers, including locating economic activities where they are most efficient.

In 2005, AfDB made a review of the status of cooperation in the management of

transboundary water resources for the 7 selected river basins.3 This 2005 situation is
presented in the table below:
Stage or Okavango Lake

Zambezi Nile Congo Niger Senegal
process Chad
Initiation Advanced Advanced Advanced Advanced Not started Advanced Advanced
stage
Shared vision Not Not In Not Not started In Early
process started or started or progress started or or early progress stage/ in
early early early stage progress
stage stage stage
Institutional Early Advanced Early Early Not started Early Advanced
and legal stage/ in stage stage/ in or early stage/ in
framework progress progress stage progress
Information Early In Early Early Not started In In
collection stage progress stage stage/ in or early progress/ progress/
and progress stage advanced advanced
dissemination
Development Early Early Early In Not started In In
planning/ stage stage stage progress or early progress progress/
project stage advanced
preparation
Infrastructure Not Early Not Not Not Early In
development started / stage started started or started/early stage progress/
stage early early stage advanced
stage stage
Operation, Not Early Not Not Not started Early In
maintenance started or stage started or started or stage progress/
and early early early advanced
management stage stage stage
stage
Monitoring Not Not Not Early Not started Early Early
and started or started or started or stage/ in or early stage/ in stage/ in
evaluation early early early progress stage progress progress
stage stage stage
The Consultant will update this assessment and consider also the situation in other river
basins. The Consultant will focus on their mandate, their governance arrangements, their
policies and corporate strategies, and their legal frameworks. One important issue to
consider the compatibility between joint basin development plans and national plans., based
on effective involvement of the riparian countries in the joint planning process. The regulatory
3
NEPAD and AfDB, March 2005: NEPAD Short-Term Action Plan for Transboundary Water
Resources. Framework for Implementation. Main Report.

and institutional aspects emerging from the L/RBOs, particularly the overlap and potential
multiplicity of policies, and the national level will be taken into account with regard to
harmonization or realignment. Some rationalization/harmonization is important in the
establishment of RBOs particularly as they cross RECs, which is the case for most of the
major basins. In a parallel institutional structure, the RECs are the building blocks of regional
integration for the AU.
The Consultant will also formulate recommendations on the number of L/RBOs to be created
within the horizon provided.
A key point of contact for the review will be the Secretariat of the African Network of Basin
Organizations (ANBO)4 in Dakar, Senegal, as well as the selected L/RBOs.
Review of policies and strategies at REC level
Some RECs are not really active in the sector of TWRM. SADC, IGAD and ECCAS, were for
example the only RECs to provide data on water projects during the second NEPAD STAP
review in 2004.
The roles of RECs in TWRM varies. One may consider three types of involvement:
a. The SADC example: SADC has a protocol for shared water resources and is proactive in
the creation of RBOs;
b. The case where the REC can play a political role to strengthen cooperation between
riparian countries of a river basin, or between two river basin organizations (example: the
possibility of transferring of water between the Congo basin and Lake Chad is being
addressed by ECCAS );
c. The Nile basin example, where RECs are not very much involved (except for Lake
Victoria).
The Consultant will contact all RECs and request for the existing policy and strategy
documents, master plans and project information relating to TWRM. The Consultant will then
review the existing regional plans relating to shared water resources such as the revised
SADC protocol (1998) on Shared Water Resources and Management of Transboundary
Waters, the ECOWAS Permanent Framework for Co-ordination and Monitoring of Integrated
Water Resources Management (2004), the ECOWAS Action Plan for integrated Water
Resources Management in West Africa.
Reporting
The review will include the drafting on a report on continental and regional policies, which will
be part of Phase I Report.
Task 1.2.2: Review of existing and planned regional TWRM infrastructure (“hard and
soft”)
Objective and analytical approach
During this second part of the review, the consultant will analyze existing regional
infrastructure, those under implementation and those that are in the pipeline. The term
“infrastructure” is understood in the broad sense as it covers both “hard” and “soft”
investments such as described in Section 2.
4
created in July 2002 in Dakar, Senegal to promote IWRM in African river basins as a basis
for sustainable socio-economic development and regional integration. ANBO is a technical
advisory body of AMCOW on transboundary water management.

The analysis will essentially address the following objectives:

contribute to the review of regional and continental policies;
determine the potential for improving the performance of the existing infrastructures for
longer term development prospects;
assess and identify regional infrastructure needs over the longer time frame;
formulate the measures to be taken to improve the efficiency of implementation of
programs for the development of regional infrastructures;
enrich the Client’s information base.
For each selected river basin, the consultant will analyze the projects in their geographical
context using the GIS developed for each selected river basin (see the tools presented in
section 3). The consultant will highlight and analyze the compliance of development
prospects with policy objectives; analyzing possible conflicts, trade-offs and alignments to be
carried out between objective priorities of regional transboundary water infrastructure and
improvement of the associated services.
The survey will be based on documentation provided by the Client and the stakeholders as
well as the consultant’s own investigations. The consultant will take into account and build on
existing or ongoing studies, in particular those listed in Annex II of the sector-specific TOR.
Particular attention will be given to water quality issues, flood risks, water pollution and
waterborne diseases, and groundwater over-exploitation.
Review of existing infrastructures
This review is closely related to the review of institutions, which is part of Task 1.2.1. The
review will focus on:
For each selected L/RBO, the existing development planning and implementation
capacities, including the operational modelling tools and Decision Support Systems;
The existing IWRM plans and investment programs;
Physical infrastructures:
 major dams used for hydropower generation (in cooperation with the Energy Sector
Study), irrigation, water supply, and flood control;
 major irrigation schemes or irrigated areas;
 major inter-basin water diversion projects;
 inter-basin water diversion projects;
 major lake and river transport infrastructure (in cooperation with the Transport Sector
Team)
Not all hydraulic infrastructures have significant transboundary hydrological implications. The
existing infrastructures analyzed will be chosen so as to respond in the best possible way to
the objectives of the proposed analysis, based in particular on the following criteria:
the potential of the concerned infrastructure to serve as a regional multipurpose water
source with relevance to the development prospects mentioned above;
the representativeness of such infrastructure for the analysis of factors of inefficiency and,
consequently, the formulation of corrective measures.
For the chosen (“hard” and “soft”) infrastructures, the Consultant will:

assess their contribution to reaching policy objectives;

highlight how various factors constrain the efficiency of these infrastructures (e.g. the
planning and quality of physical infrastructure, the quality of the institutional and regulatory
environment, the quality and readiness of master plans and investment programs);
determine the potential for improving the efficiency of these infrastructures and the role
they could play in the future;
draw lessons from the construction and operation of these infrastructures.
Taking into account the resources available for the PIDA TWRM study, this task will mainly
look at the key success factors, referring namely to the Shanghai conference on poverty,
such as political commitment at all levels, institutional innovation, learning and
experimentation, external catalyst and effective implementation.
Review of regional infrastructure and projects/programs under implementation or

preparation
An inventory and review of the main regional projects and programs under implementation
and preparation will be undertaken. As listed in the ToR, there are also more and more
initiatives taking place in the Water Sector. These include for the TIGER Initiative (2020), the
African Water Vision for Water, Life and Environment in the 21st Century, the Rural Water
Supply and Sanitation Initiative in Africa (2005), the African Water Facility (2004), the UN
Water African Forum, the EU Water Initiative (2002) and several other sub-regional initiatives
and programs such as the Nile Basin Initiative launched in 1999.
The review will give a particular attention to the NEPAD STAP projects and the projects
funded by the AWF. This review will include a more detailed analysis of a set of projects and
programs.
Several L/RBO’s have already developed a pipeline of 'bankable' interventions. The review
will include for each of the selected L/RBOs:
existing strategies and action plans such as the Niger Action Plan, adopted at Heads of
States level and which includes major storage infrastructure components; or the IWRM
Congo Basin Strategic Action Plan;
enabling environment projects or capacity development projects for increased regional
cooperation (including AWF regional projects and STAP projects);
major dams, diversions and irrigation schemes under implementation and/or preparation;
regional programs relating to water pollution;
The Consultant will develop a projects database with the collected information. The database
will be developed with the data provided by the Client, the stakeholders and the data from
the consultant’s own investigations. The Consultant will prepare a ‘project sheet’ for each of
the projects, using a format that will be agreed upon with the Client during the discussion of
the work plan presented in the proposal. A sample format has already been proposed by the
Client in Annex III of the specific TOR. The Consultant will comment and review this
proposed format and agree with the Client on the definitive format to be used. The consultant
will submit the project sheets in an electronic medium and in the form of an Excel and/or
Access file, to be agreed with the Client. The consultant will also provide a project brief along
with the sheets, to be included in the Phase I Report, which will indicate the sources of
information and specify, as appropriate, the items of information; The project brief will also
summarize the situation of all of these projects (costs, nature, regions, status, etc.).

Detailed analysis of a set of projects/programs
The objective of this analysis will be to highlight the level of efficiency of implementation of
regional infrastructure, strategies, and programs and the nature of limiting factors. The
analysis5 will cover, among others:
the possible gaps between budgets and initial and present schedules;
the factors causing such gaps;
the conditions of coordination and decision-making on the key parameters of these
projects (technical structure, planning, budget, role of various stakeholders in
implementation);
any other factor that impacted the efficiency of the process of preparation and/or
implementation of the infrastructure concerned.
This task will thus help learn lessons from the conditions of preparation and implementation
of the projects considered. For the execution of this task, the Consultant will consult works
conducted on the NEPAD STAP and the evaluations of its implementation, as well as other
ongoing studies mentioned in Annex II of the ToR. The set of projects will be agreed upon
between the Consultant and the Client and should prioritize a minimum of five projects
including at least some projects retained as flagship projects in the STAP that are under
preparation or implementation.
Reporting
The review will include the drafting on a report on existing and planned infrastructure,
projects and programs, which will be part of Phase I Report.
4.2.3 Task 1.3: Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of
choices challenges
Task 1.3.1: Establishment of an outlook for the future
Objective
The objective of this task is first to establish the outlook for the future relating to water needs
and resulting investment needs (hard and soft) in the TWR sector. The second objective is to
assess the challenges that the regions (basins) and the continent will have to face in this
sector. This will serve as a basis for the formulation of realistic long-term objectives, to be
targeted by policies and programs at the continental level in order to anchor infrastructure
development into regional integration and trade cooperation in Africa.
The establishment of the outlook for the future will take place in two stages. First, the
consultant will develop the parameters and assumptions for the projections, and produce a
methodological brief for discussion at a joint validation workshop. After validation of the
assumptions and methodology, the Consultant will proceed to the establishment of the
outlook for the future.
5
In view of the resources available for the PIDA TWRM study, this will not be a full
evaluation in the sense generally used for project and program evaluation.

Definition of the assumptions and preparation of a methodological brief
Definition of Assumptions
The Consultant will be particularly cautious in preparing the assumptions for the
establishment of the outlook for the development of regional infrastructure, as well as the
methodology to be used. The definition of assumptions on population growth and GDP
increases are discussed in the general part of the Inception Report and will be achieved by
the horizontal team. These assumptions are essential, as they will serve as a basis for the
estimation of future water needs and the resulting investment needs.
Methodological brief
The TWR team will contribute to the production of the methodological brief such as described
in the general section of the Inception Report. The first part of the brief will be produced by
the horizontal team and will provide a methodology for macro economic outlook over the
period 2010-2040. The second part will define and justify the methodology proposed for
projecting the demand for services in each sector on the basis of the macro economic
framework. In the case of the TWR Sector this will mainly be the demand for water for the
various uses.
As stated in the ToR, the consultant ’s methodological brief will analyze the following points:
a. Factors,which may influence the trends of regional infrastructure development by 2040,
including:
Endogenous factors such as development visions and paths of different parts of the
continent, the demand centres associated with the population increases, urbanization and
the socio-economic development based on the exploitation of natural resources and
regional integration;
Exogenous factors such as emanating from the international discourse on environmental
management, international agreements on water resources management, climate change
and variable weather patterns.
b. Quantified assumptions and parameters through which the results of the analysis of the
aforementioned factors can be reflected.
c. The Consultant will propose and justify his proposed forecast methodology and tools
developed for establishing the outlook for the future.
To establish the outlook for the future in terms of water needs, two approaches will be
adopted: a demand-driven approach and a supply-driven approach.
Demand-driven approach
In the demand-driven approach, the consultant will analyze the possible options for water
sources taking into account the demand scenarios based on simulated growth in the various
sectors directly depending on available water resources. The water sector relates strongly to
other sectors due to the central role of water resources in socio-economic development. The
different sectors of industry, agriculture, domestic use, energy, navigation, transport, and
environment are consequently considered as demand drivers.

To assess future food demands, the Consultant will mainly refer to the FAO report “Demand
for products of irrigated agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa”, published in 20066. This report
constitutes a sound basis for analysing the demand for irrigation development.
The outlook for energy demands will be provided by the Energy Sector Team.
Supply-driven approach: estimating the development potential
In the supply-driven approach, the efforts will be put on the analysis of the development
potentials in the selected basins. The Consultant’s approach will be to identify realistic
development targets in each basin and to derive from there the needs for water resources
mobilization.
FAO is currently compiling the irrigation potential for all African countries and river basins
(AQUASTAT). While nearly 40% of the world’s agricultural production (60 % of world’s
cereal production) already comes from irrigated land, the figure in SSA is only 10%. At
present, approximately 12 million hectares of land in Africa benefit from irrigation (as
compared to over 250 million ha for the world), which is only about 20 % of the estimated
potential. Insufficient water storage, low irrigation efficiencies at farmer’s level, and poorly
managed irrigation water distribution systems create major hydraulic vulnerabilities.
The irrigation potential in the selected basins are estimated as follows (FAO).
River Basin Irrigated Irrigation

potential*
Senegal 118,150 420,000
Niger 924,610 1,678,510
Lake Chad 113,296 1,989,000
Nile 5,078,604 8,000,000
Congo 35,767 9,800,000
Zambezi 146,869 3,160,380
Okavango 0 208 060
6,417.296 25,255.950
*upper limits estimated in 1999
These data are indicative and will be updated during the first phase of the sector study,
taking into account climate change on the one hand and possible improvements of water use
efficiency on the other hand. The irrigation potential will also be very dependent on the
agreed definition of “reasonable use” of the river potential. This concept is normally a part of
the international conventions negotiated between the riparian countries sharing and
international River system.
Besides the need to increase irrigated areas, the increase of irrigation efficiency (FAO slogan
of “more crop per drop’) and water productivity (food production per cubic meter of water) is
of utmost importance. FAO's International Action Program on Water and Sustainable
Agricultural Development puts emphasis on increasing water use efficiency through
modernization and improvement of existing irrigation schemes and rehabilitation of
waterlogged and salinized irrigated lands. The IPTRID Program, a program initiated by The
6
This report is part of a series of reports produced for a Collaborative Program on Investment in Agricultural
Water Management for Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa carried out jointly by the
WB, AfDB, IFAD, and IWMI.

World Bank and now hosted by FAO, is promoting capacity building and technology transfer
for increased water productivity in agriculture in cooperation with a large network of
international research centers.
The TWRM team will also estimate the feasible hydropower potential for each of the selected
river basins. This will be achieved in cooperation with the experts of Energy Sector Team.
Africa has a high potential for hydropower development. According to Aqua-Media
international, the technically feasible potential is 1,303,250 GWh/year. Only 7,2 % of this is
in operation and 92.8 % is still unexploited. 57.9 % of this potential is considered to be
technically and economically feasible. As compared to the global hydropower production, the
hydropower capacity in operation in Africa represents only 2.5 % of the capacity in operation
in the world today. But compared to elsewhere in the world, there appears to be some
acceleration in the planning and construction of new hydropower dams. Africa has 4.7 % of
world’s hydropower capacity under construction and 18.2 % of planned capacity.
Validation workshop
A joint validation workshop, covering all sectors, will be organized by the Client and the
Consultant, and will bring together stakeholders (especially the RECs , L/RBOs and AU
specialized institutions/Sector Organizations) and resource persons (‘external experts’). The
purpose of the workshop will be to discuss the methodological brief, and validate the
assumptions and parameters proposed to guide the final projections. The methodological
brief will be delivered one week before the workshop.
Establishment of the outlook for the future
After the validation workshop, the Consultant will finalize his projections for the Phase I
Report. Using the models and tools described in the methodological brief and on the basis of
the validated assumptions and parameters (validated during the validation workshop), the
Consultant will make projections of potential regional and continental water needs (including
the demand centres, volumes required and potential sources for the required resources).
Reporting
The analysis will include the drafting on a report on the outlook for the future, which will be
part of Phase I Report.
Task 1.3.2: Analysis of choices and challenges – defining objectives and targets
The purpose of this task is to identify the key challenges that the region and the continent will
have to face in the TWR sector and to propose a number of clear strategic objectives for the
PIDA TWRM investment program.
Identification of key issues and challenges
Several key issues and challenges have already been identified by the African Water Vision
2025. In addition to these key issues, there are a number of compounding issues that also
have a significant impact on water resources in Africa. All these challenges and issues,
which are not repeated here, will be considered and prioritized. At this stage, the following
challenges or groups of challenges appear to be particularly relevant for the PIDA TWRM
investment strategy and program:
Multiplicity of transboundary water basins (60) and weak regional cooperation. This will
probably need the creation of new L/RBOs and the strengthening of existing ones. Their
role in investment planning, promotion, and coordination will need to be strengthened;

Growing water scarcity, high spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and impact of
climate change; lack of water security, and great vulnerability to floods and droughts. This
will need investments to increase storage capacity and develop water diversions (supply
policy) as well as to increase water use efficiency (demand policy);
Growing environmental degradation; contamination of major shared water resources;
Availabilityof human resources and capacity, inadequate information and knowledge base
and planning capacities, and unreliable monitoring and evaluation systems.
Setting objectives for the Infrastructure development framework and investment

program
From the analysis of priority challenges, the Consultant will propose a number of realistic
objectives that African decision makers could set for their long-term regional and continental
infrastructure development policies in the TWR sector. In so doing the Consultant will
formulate realistic assumptions on the level of resources that could be available for
supporting the development of physical assets in the sector. These objectives will be
established on the basis of relevant indicators that reflect the outlook for the future and
challenges identified in the preceding analysis.
The PIDA TWRM investment program will contribute to eradicate poverty and achieve the
Millennium Development Goals in Africa. The consultant will propose objectives which are
also in line with the challenges addressed by the Africa Water Vision 2025 and by the African
Water Facility.
At this stage, possible specific objectives of the PIDA TWRM investment program could be
listed as follows:
to enhance regional cooperation by deploying the principles of Integrated Water Resource
Management (IWRM) particularly for shared water resources through the L/RBOs and
regional water protocols;
to increase in a “secure” and “equitable” manner the availability of water resources for
hydropower production, irrigated agriculture, domestic and industrial water supply,
navigation, fisheries and protection of ecosystems;
to help African countries adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts and variability
in weather patterns;
to help African countries to protect their environment and ecosystems in the spirit of
IWRM;
to help African countries to mitigate the social impacts of large infrastructures while
sharing the benefits with the people who are directly concerned.
In a “secure manner” means that the program should ensure water security to meet future
increases in demand for water and enable the socio-economic development of the regions of
the African continent.
In an “equitable manner” means that the program should enable the equitable allocation of
water resources among competing water uses for sustainable development. It also implies
an equitable sharing of benefits arising from the shared basin resources. The most
appropriate form of return and benefit sharing with the impacted population should also be
part of the projects.
The regional infrastructure development program should aim at providing water for the
irrigation of several millions of hectares. This would require storage and distribution of billions
of cubic meters of water. But this would also require multi-lateral and bilateral agreements

between riparian states sharing the same river system. Because irrigation consumes
(evaporates) huge quantities of water, irrigation development in upstream countries is indeed
the main potential source of political tension or conflict. Because of the transboundary
impacts of such infrastructure on the river flow regimes, this cannot be achieved peacefully
without regional cooperation in the spirit of IWRM. One key objective of the soft interventions
of the program will thus be to strengthen the instruments for joint planning, investment,
operation and maintenance of major hydraulic infrastructures with transboundary impacts.
For most basins considered, these mechanisms are still too weak, as the mandates and
resources of the Basin Organizations are often too limited.
Because of the high political sensitivity of the issue of impacts of large hydraulic
infrastructure on neighbouring countries (mainly downstream and upstream countries on an
international river), it is obvious that the political will and commitment at the highest level will
crucial for the success of PIDA TWRM. But public support and political will for cooperation
can only be achieved if the economic benefits of cooperation is fully understood and
supported on the basis of the concept of “shared benefits”. Since public opinion is essential,
investment in communication and popularization will thus be considered as very important.
The final formulation of the specific program objectives will be agreed upon with the
stakeholders.
The tangible objectives of the program, namely in terms of additional volumes of water to be
stored and the energy to be produced will be agreed upon with the Client and the
stakeholders based on various scenarios proposed by the consultant.
The economic added value of L/RBOs will have to be enforced. New models for PPP will be
needed for the operation of large regional hydraulic infrastructures. The water services to
users (irrigation and water supply) will have to be strengthened. The IWRM philosophy
aiming at better coordination, dialogue, equity, participatory planning, and environmental
protection, will have to be widely disseminated.
Valuable return on investment will only be achievable if the water productivity (more crop per
drop) of irrigated lands is significantly increased through ambitious capacity building
investments, able to reach millions of farmers.
Reporting
The analysis will include the drafting on a report on the choices and challenges, which will be
4.2.4 Task 1.4: Preparation of an outline program for the development of

regional and continental infrastructure
From the review of regional and continental infrastructure and the formulation of the outlook
for the future, the Consultant will draft a preliminary outline infrastructure development
program for the development and management of transboundary water resources to the
2040 horizon. However this can only be very indicative at this stage since the outcome of the
review of the existing situation and the proposed objectives have not yet been discussed with
the stakeholders.
The task will include three steps:
Definition of a preliminary strategic framework
A good starting point for the proposed strategic framework could be the existing structure of
the AWF Operation Strategy and which are also the four pillars of the AWV 2025:
Strengthening water governance

Investments to meet water needs

Strengthening the financial base
Improving water knowledge
The strategic framework will provide the basis on which the infrastructure development
program can be developed, as well as addressing the issues relating to successful
implementation. The framework will set out clear criteria for prioritizing both transboundary
water basins and programs within those basins, having due regard to any existing criteria
being applied in the choice of water resources development programs, or used to prioritize
programs and projects.
Preliminary outline of the investment program
In this outline program, the following will be highlighted:

Investment projects and programs by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new
ideas);
Institutionaland legal framework (including sector policies) and other soft interventions
that are required;
This preliminary outline will include recommendations on the number of L/RBOs to be
created within the horizon provided. The regulatory and institutional aspects emerging from
the L/RBOs, particularly the overlap and potential multiplicity of policies, and the national
level will be taken into account with regard to harmonization or realignment.
Preliminary implementation strategy and cost estimation
The outline will identify relevant implementation stakeholders. It will also provide a first
approximative cost quantification as well as estimated deadlines.
The outline will also indicate specific choice and decision-making issues, in particular
regarding projects for which bankability is uncertain.
Reporting
This task will include the drafting on a report on the proposed outline program, which will be
4.2.5 Task 1.5: Phase I reporting
Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I TWRM sector report
The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the TWRM team members on
their respective tasks relating to the review and analysis of policies, institutions, legal
frameworks, existing and planned projects, on the outlook for the future, on the choices and
challenges, and on the preliminary outline program.
Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports
The TWRM Phase I Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to constitute
the Phase I Report.

4.3 Tasks of Phase II: formulation of a draft strategic Framework,

development program and implementation strategy
The purpose of Phase II is to consult with stakeholders on the findings of Phase I, in order to
develop a draft strategic framework, infrastructure development program, and
implementation strategy and processes.
There are broadly two components to Phase II:
The preparation and holding of a strategic workshop to consult with RECs, L/RBOs and
other stakeholders on the Phase I findings;
The preparation of a draft final report containing the three outputs required from the study
(strategic framework, infrastructure development program, implementation strategy and
prcesses)
Full engagement with the RECs will be essential, as the RECs, working closely with national
governments, will be the main implementers of the final output of PIDA. It will also be
important to engage with stakeholders at the continental level, for example the NEPAD Head
of States and Government Implementation Committee.
The aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained participatory and consultative
process, and on the basis of previous studies, a consensus on the essential elements of a
regional and continental TWR strategic framework (including sector policies), infrastructure
development program, and implementation strategy and processes.
4.3.1 Task 2.1: Preparation and holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop
A core component of Phase II will be the holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop
involving all key stakeholders. The workshop will be the venue for consulting with
stakeholders at the political (decision making), technical and operational level on the findings
of Phase 1 (needs, targets), and define a strategy to be later articulated in programs and
projects. The workshop will focus on:
The development of the overarching principles which should guide policy orientations and
decisions on regional integration;
Agreement with the stakeholders on the major challenges to be considered for the
development of regional and continental infrastructure, based on the challenges identified
in Phase I;
Agreement with the stakeholders on the strategic objectives and orientations based on the
objectives identified in Phase I. This includes the policies to be implemented at the
regional and continental levels to meet the challenges.
Task 2.1.1: Preparation of the workshop and of the workshop briefs
Defining the structure of the workshop.
In close collaboration with the Client, the consultant will agree on the organizations to be
invited to the workshop, including at least the RECs, AMCOW, and L/RBOs. But there may
also be a need to consult with other stakeholders at a continental level, such as the NEPAD
Head of States and Government Implementation Committee. The consultant will also advise
the Client on measures and programs most efficiently addressed at continental level.
Preparation of briefs for the workshop

In close collaboration with the Client, the consultant will prepare briefs to contribute to the
workshop discussions. Such briefs, prepared on the basis of the Phase I Report, will include
summaries of:
The conclusions of reviews of regional policies and the implementation of infrastructure
development programs;
The conclusions of projections of needs in regional transboundary water resources
infrastructure and associated services, and an analysis of coherence with sector policies
and economic guidelines;
A set of recommendations aimed at strengthening regional and continental policies on
transboundary water resources infrastructure and associated services;
The challenges and issues that should be addressed in the strategic framework for
transboundary water resources, both to prioritise projects and programs, and to ensure
successful implementation;
Programme outline.
Task 2.1.2: Participation in and/or facilitation of workshops.
The TWR Sector team will assist the horizontal team in the preparation and facilitation of the
validation workshop. More details on this task is provided in the general part of the Inception
Report.
Task 2.1.3: Production of the workshop proceedings
After the workshop, the consultant will draft a workshop report and the workshop
proceedings highlighting:
the guidelines formulated by participants on the strategic framework /sector policies,
infrastructure development program, and implementation strategy and processes;
the agreed appropriate levels at which the measures and initiatives should be undertaken:
continental or regional;
the interfaces between the regional and continental levels on which to undertake these
measures and initiatives
issues on which participants could not reach a consensus;
additional analyses brought forward and necessary for the consolidation of results.
Reports on the sector workshops will be delivered to the Client within 1 week of the
workshop being completed.
4.3.2 Task 2.2: Formulation of a draft strategic final report
Task 2.2.1 Formulation of a preliminary draft strategic framework (including sector

policies)
The consultant will:

Carry out additional analyses needed to validate assumptions adopted during the
workshop;

Assist the Client to address issues on which agreement was not reached during the
workshop;
Review and if necessary reformulate the strategic objectives and sector policies taking
into account the outcome of the workshop;
Finalize a preliminary draft of an African TWRM Strategic Framework (including sector
policies) on the basis of the guidelines formulated by the workshops and further analyses
as necessary;
Outline the measures and other propositions where a consensus was not reached.
The output of this task will form part of the Phase II Report.
Task 2.2.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development program
The preliminary draft infrastructure development program will consist of a pipeline of regional
projects and programs, composed of a balanced combination of hard and soft
interventions/studies over the short, medium, and long-term horizons that is consistent with
the strategic framework and sector policies. It will include:
a prioritized list of regional projects (soft and hard) with cost estimations and timing,
recommended implementation and operating arrangements over the three time horizons
(2020, 2030, and 2040);
a proposed first Priority Action Plan (PAP) including:
 projects and programs ready to go, for which the feasibility has been completed
positively, the EIA and mitigation plans available, and the social and institutional aspects
dealt with;
newly identified short-term projects (mainly soft projects to build institutional capacity and
prepare the next PAP and possibly ICT programs)
The projects and programs will involve the extension or improvement of existing
infrastructure, the construction of new infrastructure, and the strengthening of the enabling
environment.
The projects and programs will be prioritized in relation to the objectives that they are
expected to help achieve. There will also be preliminary assessments to determine the
relative importance of the expected project impacts and highlight possible conflicting
objectives. Prioritization of projects is essential, as it will help to focus efforts on a realistic
core of projects, and to build consensus among the stakeholders (including financing
partners) around that core. Prioritization criteria will be proposed and progressively refined by
the Consultant based on thorough discussions with program sponsors, RECs, L/RBOs, and
other stakeholders. Ultimately the program sponsors will agree them.
The preliminary draft infrastructure development program will include options and their
rationale as may be necessary. The program will stem from the strategic framework
(including sector policies) and particularly:
the establishment of the outlook for the future, and the identification of strategic objectives
and policies for the sector;
the strategic guidelines and criteria formulated during the workshops, especially for the
prioritization of projects and programs.
Technical and political processes need to go hand in hand in arriving at agreement on a set
of prioritized TWRM projects, based on sound technical and consensus-based proposals.

Since the process of identifying, assessing and agreeing on a set of priority projects requires
substantial negotiation and buy-in at a political level, the consultant will carefully consider
options for the level of detail that is feasible. One option may be to establish a set of agreed
core principles at a continental level, and promote policy development at a regional level.
The formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development program will imply the
following analyses:
The coherence of projects and programs with the policy and strategic objectives of the
TWR Sector;
Preliminary assessments of the financial and economic viability of projects/programs to
provide an initial criterion for their prioritization;
Refinement of the prioritization criteria to include other relevant factors including (but not
limited to):
the contribution of each project/program to the attainment of objectives;
the stage of development of each program (according to defined milestones);
the prospects for financing.
Role of stakeholders in program implementation, together with human resource availability
and capacity building requirements;
The need for complementary policy, institutional, or regulatory measures required to
enable efficient and fruitful implementation;
Potential environmental impact;
Other risks and challenges to implementation.
Task 2.2.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and processes
The Consultant will prepare a preliminary draft of “implementation strategy and processes”,
based on the analysis of the potential barriers to implementation. Successful implementation
of the infrastructure development program will depend on building a consensus among all
stakeholders around a realistic platform of measures and projects. The implementation
strategy and processes will involve the development of priority measures, resources and
tools to support the successful implementation of PIDA, including:
a. Priority actions to be undertaken in the period 2010-2020 in terms of both physical
investments and associated measures required to secure successful implementation (e.g.
policy, institutional, regulatory, financial, legal). This set of actions shall form the Priority
Action Plan, which will replace the NEPAD STAP, and will be designed in a form to be a
roll-over action plan.
b. Respective roles of regional and continental entities and institutions in the implementation
of the Priority Action Plan, and more generally in the preparation and implementation of
further investment programs as well as in the elaboration and application of regional and
continental policies. The study will review all institutional arrangements that affect the
development and delivery of infrastructure services at the regional and continental levels,
and will make recommendations on how they could be modified to improve infrastructure
services. The recommendations will draw on the causal analysis undertaken in Phase I.

c. How the regional and continental policies, entities and institutions could contribute to
resolving the issue of financing proposed investments and their sustainability, covering
both construction and operation and maintenance of the infrastructure.
d. Mobilizing regional and external financing and private sector participation. The study will
address the mobilization of funding within the region, and from development partners and
the private sector. The existing situation will be evaluated, and projections made of the
likely financial resource envelopes for regional infrastructure projects, based on an
analysis of past trends and other relevant factors. We will produce scenarios of future
financial resources within which development projects and programs can be prioritized.
These projections will be based on realistic assumptions, and, as far as possible,
innovative ways of finding solutions to these recurrent issues. We will propose measures
likely to help mobilize private sector participation in infrastructure, and strengthen
cooperation with international development partners.
e. Civil society participation in the preparation and implementation of proposed measures in
terms of policies as well as physical investments. In this context, we will propose
communication and dissemination measures that regional and continental entities and
institutions shall undertake in order to enhance civil society participation.
f. Defining an implementation and monitoring process: This involves proposing to
stakeholders, the mechanisms and tools to:
review and update over time the strategic framework and infrastructure development
program;
actively manage the roll-over Priority Action Plan.
With respect to the action plan, this will mainly consist of knowing how to initiate and
complete an action, as well as how to monitor the progress of the action. This process will
include:
a. Capacity building: The formulation of recommendations for the institutional capacity
building of continental and regional entities responsible for monitoring, coordinating and
managing the implementation of the agreed measures and actions (while implementation
of the recommendations will be the direct responsibility of the entities concerned, and will
be carried out outside this study).
b. Monitoring mechanism. Starting from the work already done to design the NEPAD Project
Management System (NPMS), and the upgrading of this system under MLTSF, we will
assess the adequacy of the present data base as an effective monitoring mechanism, and
formulate observations, comments and recommendations on its upgrading to the extent
that this is assessed to be necessary. The final design and implementation of any
improved monitoring mechanism will be carried out separately from this study.
4.3.3 Task 2.3 Phase II reporting
Task 2.3.1.: Drafting Phase II TWRM sector report
The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the team members on their
respective tasks relating to the preliminary strategic framework, the preliminary investment
program, and the preliminary implementation strategy and processes.

Task 2.3.2: Integration of the four sector reports
The TWRM Phase II Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to constitute
the Phase II Report.

5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE

As stated in the general part of the report, the proposed time line would be as follows:
The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for Phase I
and Phase II.




6.1 Expertise of the team
A team of seven experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 33
manmonths. The team has the full range of expertise required:
IntegratedWater Resources Management and Integrated River Basin
Management;
Hydropower;
Irrigation;
Water supply and sanitation;

Flood management;
Groundwater resources management;
Environment;
Hydrology;
Finance of infrastructure projects

GIS, data management and modelling;
6.2 Cross-sectoral synergies
The consultant will have due regard to cross-sectoral linkages and synergies.
Hydropower development will be related to the energy sector-specific study. Inland
waterways and lake transport will be related to the transport sector study.
For both cross-sectoral linkages, close cooperation between the experts involved in
the different sector studies will be organized and managed for data sharing, joint
analysis of existing and planned projects, prioritization of projects and programs, etc.
6.3 Tasks assignments
one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of manmonths for


INCEPTION REPORT
ICT SECTION

INCEPTION REPORT/ ICT SECTION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ...........................................................1

ICT SECTOR .......................................................................3
1. SECTOR BACKGROUND ................................................................. 3
1.1. The Stakes ..................................................................................3
1.2. ICT and Africa ..............................................................................3
1.2.1.The Continent................................................................................................ 3
1.2.2.The land locked countries: An archipelago of islands .................................... 4
1.2.3.The development of ICT in Africa is a driver for economic development but remains a
burden for the fragile populations. ................................................................. 5
2. OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE PIDA ICT STUDY ..... 7
2.1. The Study’s Objectives and scope.......................................................7
2.1.1.Objective of the study.................................................................................... 7
2.1.2.Scope and Specific Objective of the Study for ICT Sector ............................. 7
2.2. Expected outputs of the PIDA ICT Study................................................7
2.2.1.Facilitate continental and regional integration................................................ 8
2.2.2.Support the reduction of ICT cost for the consumer....................................... 8
2.2.3.Sustainable Infrastructures............................................................................ 9
3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH................................... 10

3.1. PIDA ICT Study Strategy................................................................. 10
3.2. Time Horizons ............................................................................ 12
3.3. Relationship with the Recs ............................................................. 13
3.4. Data collection and tools ............................................................... 13
3.4.1.Data collection............................................................................................. 13
3.4.2.Data to be Collected.................................................................................... 13
3.4.3.Tools to be developed ................................................................................. 14
4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS DESCRIPTION ...................... 18

4.1. Phase I Diagnosis and in-depth analysis .............................................. 18
4.2. Task 1.1 : Review and analysis of the situation ..................................... 18
4.2.1.Task 1.1.1 Collecting data and state of the ICT market ............................... 18
4.2.2.Task 1.1.2 Initiation of continental and regional observatories..................... 20
4.2.3.Task 1.1.3 Initialization of a continental and regional infrastructures atlas... 21
4.3. Task 1.2. Review of Continental and regional policies (A1) ....................... 22
4.3.1.Objectives ................................................................................................... 22
4.3.2.Task 1.2.1 Collection of Regional Policies and regulatory frameworks ........ 22
4.3.3.Task 1.2.2 Analysis of the existing regional policies .................................... 24
4.3.4.Task 1.2.3 Analysis of regional regulation bodies and legal and regulatory
environments............................................................................................... 26
4.4. Task 1.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures (A2) ................................... 28
4.4.1.The Task’s Environment.............................................................................. 28
4.4.2.Objective of the task.................................................................................... 28
4.4.3.Task 1.3.1 Identification and Analysis of existing infrastructures ................. 30
4.4.4.Task 1.3.2 Identification of projects under implementation and preparation. 30
4.4.5.Task 1.3.3 Detailed analysis of a set of regional infrastructure projects....... 31
4.5. Task 1.4 Establishment of the outlook for the future and identification of
challenges (B) ............................................................................ 32
4.5.1.Objectives ................................................................................................... 32
4.5.2.Task 1.4.1. Establishment of an outlook for the future (B.1)......................... 32
4.5.3.Task 1.4.2 Analysis of choices and challenges (B.2) ................................... 36
4.5.4.Task 1.4.3 Preparation of an outline programme (B3) ................................. 37
4.6. Task 1.5 Phase I Report ................................................................. 38
4.6.1.Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I ICT sector report............................................. 38
4.6.2.Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports ......................................... 38
4.7. Phase II Formulation of a draft strategic framework, programme and
implementation strategy ............................................................... 38
4.7.1.Background ................................................................................................. 39
4.8. Task 2.1 Strategic workshops .......................................................... 40
4.8.1.Task 2.1.1 Preparation and holding of sector workshops............................. 40
4.8.2.Task 2.1.2 Preparation of briefs for strategic the workshops........................ 40
4.8.3.Task 2.1.3 Formulation of o preliminary draft Strategic framework .............. 41
4.8.4.Task 2.1.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft Infrastructure development programme
41
4.8.5.Task 2.1.5 Formulation of a preliminary implementation strategy and processes
44
4.8.6.Task 2.1.6 Phase II Report .......................................................................... 45
5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE........................................................... 46
6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT ................................................. 48

6.1. Expertise of the team ................................................................... 48
6.2. Tasks assignments ....................................................................... 48

ICT SECTOR
1. SECTOR BACKGROUND
1.1. The Stakes
The communications sector (ICT) in Africa is in full development thanks to the introduction of
mobile phone services all over the continent.
The real future stake is the access to the internet. To this end, it is essential that the African
continent:
Develop sustainable infrastructures capable of handle the short and long term needs
Extend the supply
Reduces the cost of use by consumers
Develop an investment-friendly environment needed for the development of
infrastructures and services
1.2. ICT and Africa

Findings
Africa is seen form an ICT perspective as an isolated island
1
The development and usage of the mobile in Africa is a burden for the most fragile population
Reducing or targeting investments in order to develop sustainable and structuring infrastructures
The development and use of ICTs in Africa is essentially based on the mobile phone with a
multitude of parallel infrastructures (redundant in part). In fact, the different operators have
deployed « similar » infrastructures in the same places. This situation, is evidence that an
important part of the investment amounts could have been saved or better used by sharing.
Moreover, parts of these infrastructures (radio backbones) may not be viable in the mid and
long terms since they are not able to handle the broadband development.
1.2.1. The Continent

The African Continent is a region with few submarine cables, which are essential to the
current development of the sector, expansion of broadband and the only sustainable
infrastructure capable of transporting to the web the requests from consumers. Today,
despite the commissioning of new cables in 2009/2010 (EASSy in the East, MainOne in the
West), the African continent falls short of broadband capacity, which partially explains the
high cost of using voice services (fixed and mobile) and data (mainly Internet).
1
BAD Perspective économique en Afrique 2009 vol2 - TIC.pdf (page 120)

The intra-African interconnection process is being completed outside Africa: (Europe, USA).
Deprived of Data Centres and INX (Internet Node Exchange), intra-continental traffic seek
the USA or Europe before going back to the African continent engendering additional cost
and using broadband for no purpose.
Until 2010, this traffic took place essentially via satellites, which provide very low-capacity
broadband and are therefore incapable of meeting the increasing demand of traffic in
addition at a very high Mbps cost. Today, particularly on the East coast, the deployment of
submarine cables (EASSy…) has helped improve the connection of the region’s countries,
which would, among other things, reduce consumer rates, and cost of connection thanks to
land backbones used in parallel.
Authors Authors eGY-Africa
Recent studies show that traffic to and from Africa ‘costs’ users each year between 300 and
400 million € to the benefit of ‘non-African players’. A good part of this financial windfall
leaves Africa to be consolidated on another continent.
Yesterday The world in progress (EASSY-e-Nepad)
1.2.2. The land locked countries: An archipelago of islands

A good number of countries are isolated and may not have access to this ‘rare’ resource
(submarine cable) without crossing (transit) coastal countries . This is a major short-term
challenge which, if not solved, would be at the origin of a 2nd digital divide between the
‘connected’ countries and the isolated ones.
The case of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda

The diagrams below show how recently the isolation of Rwanda and Uganda has been broken thanks
to the submarine cable EASSy on the East coast and the related synchronized land project. The
facilities have allowed the transfer and transit of internet traffic by 88% to EASSy via optical fiber
connected to Ouganda. This case is a perfect example of the submarine cable’s complementarity –
trans-border land infrastructures. What remains is studying the impact on rates which is part of the the
PIDA Study.

Source : PIDA ICT C de Jacquelot (capture Robtex le 4 juin 2010)
1.2.3. The development of ICT in Africa is a driver for economic

development but remains a burden for the fragile populations.
The African Development Bank’s report on Economic Perspectives in Africa 2009 highlights
the fact that pan-European groups increasingly dominate the commercially successful GSM
operations in Africa. They place a heavy financial burden on the most fragile populations. Up
to 70% of their available monthly revenues can be spent on mobile communication without
being at the origin of its development.
Internet access, which is a major challenge for economic development in Africa, must be
addressed as is found in the latest ITU report (Information Society Statistical Profiles 2009
Africa):
“The fixed line sector remains very limited and is stagnating, which also constraints fixed
broadband deployment through ADSL, the world’s most widely deployed fixed broadband
technology. In addition, there are practically no cable networks and many countries are
facing a shortage of international Internet bandwidth. As a result, fixed broadband
penetration is low and broadband prices are beyond the reach of the majority of the
population. The large majority of countries (22 out of 32 included in the ICT Price Basket)
have fixed broadband prices that correspond to more than 100 per cent of their monthly GNI
per capita”

Source : Perspectives économiques en Africa © BAfD/OCDE 2009 page 120

2. OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE

PIDA ICT STUDY
2.1. The Study’s Objectives and scope
2.1.1. Objective of the study

The ACU, NEPAD Secretariat and AfDB are jointly leading an initiative named the
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). The global objective of PIDA
is to facilitate increased regional integration in Africa through improved regional and
continental infrastructure. According to the general TORs PIDA will:
Establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental
infrastructure in four sectors (Energy, Transport, Information and Communication
Technologies (ICT), and Transboundary Water Resources), based on a development
vision for Africa, strategic objectives and sector policies;
Establish an infrastructure development programme covering a time period up to 2030
using the strategic framework/sector policies; and
Prepare an implementation strategy and processes, including in particular a priority action
plan.
2.1.2. Scope and Specific Objective of the Study for ICT Sector
The sector-specific TOR set the objectives for the ICT work:
Establishing a harmonized policy, legal and regulatory frameworks at the regional and
continental levels to develop an attractive and positive market for investment and to foster
the sustainable development of ICT infrastructure in African regional markets;
Accelerating the development of integrated infrastructures that will help bridge the digital
divide, i.e. foster access to reliable and quality ICT services that will be affordable for the
greatest number of the population in Africa;
Promoting e-applications and services aimed at improving government services (e-
government), education (e-education), trade and business (e-commerce), and other social
services, and the performance of the other productive sectors of the economy;
Increasing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of services and enabling
the integration of Africa into the global economy;
Capacity building (in ICT skills) and innovation systems including centers of excellence;
Reducing or eliminating transit of intra and interregional traffic out of the continent.
2.2. Expected outputs of the PIDA ICT Study

The priority of the sector is to:

2.2.1. Facilitate continental and regional integration
2.2.1.1. Connecting Africa to the rest of the world and interconnecting

African countries
The Study’s primary stake is to define a political and regulatory environment suitable for the
development of sustainable infrastructures based on guidelines for large-scale continental
and regional infrastructures to be developed and which are required for the development of
bandwidth.
To do so, the following actions are needed:
Adjust regional policies and the regulatory environment which represent the fundamental
platform for the development of ICT in Africa in order to:
 Optimize investments to be carried out by privileging private investments as well as
framing them
 Reducing the cost of usage through an environment where tariffs are ‘cost oriented’.
Ending the isolation of the continent, the regions and the countries namely those of the
centre in order to help all Africans have access to at least one connection to submarine
cables and to neighbouring countries.
A top priority: cobwebbing Africa

Deploying and developing infrastructures with continental and regional dimensions able to
move about broadband and transport the bandwidth to be generated in the medium and
long terms without questioning investments in costly infrastructures.
2.2.2. Support the reduction of ICT cost for the consumer

Reducing rates and their components is a priority objective, as it will help:
Increase dialogue between countries of the same region
Facilitate the access of most consumers to the internet
Reducing the cost of usage (Wholesale and Retail) will require among other things:
A better use of available or planned infrastructures (sharing).
Setting up policies, legal and regulatory frameworks which, while leaving initiatives to the
private sector, must be capable of regulating the market. To achieve such goals, good
governance of the national regulators plays an important role and is therefore impossible
to ignore.

Reduce the costs of services
U ns uitab le
Lac k of inf ras truc tu res
Efficient Eff icient
regula to ry
infrastructures
regulatory
Retails The way

tariffs
Ret ai ls tariffs
Whol esale
Whol esal e tariffs
tariffs
Infra st ructure I nfrastr uctur eand bandwidth
tar iffs
and ba ndwidth
ta riffs
« Incr easing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of ser vices »
PidaI CT Tor
2.2.3. Sustainable Infrastructures

The lessons learned from other continents and some African countries stress the fact that
only a robust and developing infrastructure based on the use of optical fibre in the
backbone infrastructure will be the viable solution in the medium and long terms. To
be performing, these optical infrastructures must be as close of the users as possible. The
last link can be either fixed or radio.
The case of France: Alternative Infrastructures and the Development of Broadband
The diagram below shows how the three most powerful alternative operators in France use and
mutualize alternative infrastructures to compete with the incumbent operator
The alternative infrastructures are partially provided by the road network and railways. The operators
have developed the missing links since 1998 and often through mutualization as the incumbent
operator offered at that time wholesale prices for the rented links. These were not economically
reasonable.

3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH

3.1. PIDA ICT Study Strategy
The Consultants will focus on the following essential issues:
More active regional policies on land management
Harmonization of regional infrastructure policies in order to reach continental and regional
coherence.
Consolidating and harmonizing the legal and regulatory environment as a monitoring tool.
Infrastructures and impacts on continental and regional integration Target sectors

The phrase « existing or being deployed continental and regional infrastructures must
be understood in both senses: hard and soft (complementary measures).
Within the framework of the PIDA Study, the Consultant’s focus and analysis are on
the transmission links, which have the greatest impact on continental and regional
integration. They may take also into consideration some components when they
interfere with smooth operations at the regional and continental levels. (example of
Websecurity).
3.1.1.1. Physical Infrastructure

The infrastructures identified as having a continental or regional integration objective
are specifically:
Infrastructures allowing access to submarine cable stations
‘Corridor’ infrastructures (optical links across a country)
The link between two neighbouring countries
All or part of a national infrastructure required for the preceding countries
Interconnection
Transit Internet Interconnection Nodes INX (IXP) and POP/teleHouse (points

interconnection and/or exchange of traffic between operators) at regional and/or
national levels as well as meshing of these nodes (interconnection).
3.1.1.2. Dematerialized Infrastructures or connects

The targeted sectors are primarily:
The legal and regulatory environment for the issues related to the setting up and
use of hard infrastructures as described earlier.
Consolidation of governance and the regulators’ capacity in the specifically
targeted points.
Capacity building in terms of planning and implementation of the project
Capacity building, the development and use of economic models for the regulation
of wholesale and retail tariffs
The development of databases, the setting up of a data collecting process, the
setting up of observatories (market, traffic…)
Encouraging the development of applications and content dedicated to Africa (e-
usage and e-applications) as well as the related data centres
The strengthening of the security of the infrastructure and internet (Websecurity)
To do so, the consultants will share their views with the 4 major regional integration
drivers, which are:
The continental organizations (UA, UAT, …) and regional (Recs) and to a lesser
degree the national authorities
Regional regulators’ associations and the NRA
Infrastructures and potential suppliers of alternative infrastructures (roads,
railways, energies, municipalities…)
The players (operators, ISP) operating in Africa or international operators
(wholesale operators (Internet Wholesale connectivity).

To attain such objectives, the Consultant will prioritize the investments targeted by
the study. He will ensure that the programs are coherent over time and are
implemented in the proper sequence since the absence or failure (failure of
performance) of one link may ruin the entire project because of incoherence or
dysfunction.
3.2. Time Horizons

PIDA’s terms of reference provide two time horizons for the ICT sector.
The ICT sector is a dynamic sector essentially driven by market demand. Generally,
as soon as a service is provided, it reaches saturation level in a very short time since
the traffic generated by such services cannot be absorbed by the available
infrastructure, which has been sized before the existence of such new services.
As discussed with the Panel of experts and the AfDB during the meeting of
June17th, 2010 in Tunis, it was agreed that the ICT sector’s perspectives be
readjusted to take into consideration the sector’s dynamism and to help PIDA
Study be more coherent with the evolutions and perspectives of the sector.
Perspectives ToR PIDA Study

Short term - 2010-2012
Medium term 2010-2020 2012-2015
Long term 2020-2030 2015-2020

It is not realistic to try to imagine what demand will be like beyond 2020 as the
services on offer, market demand and the technologies used will differ from those
existing today. It is therefore relevant to analyze what happened and what is
happening in Europe and the developing countries such as India, China. The
explosion of services and demand generated an important growth of traffic requiring
an alomost daily adjustment of infrastructure in order to meet these demands
and the quality expected by private and professional consumers.
3.3. Relationship with the Recs

The Consultant will work closely with the RECs as concerns data collection They will
be the interface of the Consultant with the institutions in charge of ITC in the
countries (National Regulatory Agencies NRA).
3.4. Data collection and tools

3.4.1. Data collection
The experience of the consultants shows that if the necessary data is not available it
is impossible to:
Analyze the policies and regulatory environments without analyzing the impact on
the markets
Calibrate or mobilize hard infrastructures without knowing what they will transport
in the short, medium and long terms.
Analyze the use cost without having an idea on the rates (Wholesale and retail)
implemented by the players
Calculate the profitability of investments if it is not possible to know the volumes to
be transported and the generated revenues.
To set up the regulation tools.
3.4.2. Data to be Collected

Data collecting will be initiated in Phase 1 and will continue during the Study because
of the market’s dynamism and the difficulty2 of collecting data in Africa.
The types of data collected are many and the list provided is not exhaustive and will
be adjusted according to the needs and the collectable data.
3.4.2.1. Market Data

The market data are of 2 types :
Regulatory and legal data
 Licenses attributed by countries and rates
 Regulatory rates (interconnection,…)
 Operators data
 The number of consumers per service (landline, mobile, Internet ,broadband,..)
 Rates
2
Lesson learned from HIPPSA

3.4.2.2. Cost Data

The ‘Cost’ data include those of the sub-groups making up the infrastructures.
Cost of civil engineering and construction (ditches, mats, buildings,....)
Cost of optical cables
Cost of active equipments
Cost of labour
Within the framework of collecting data, the Consultant :
Will start from available data bases,
Set up a process for the collecting and updating of data based on the Recs
Consolidate the data available to the sector’s consultants
Seek additional data from players (operators, suppliers of equipments) such as
the cost of equipment.
Méthodology and out-puts for market data and infrastructure collection
3.4.3. Tools to be developed
3.4.3.1. Implementation of a GIS for the PIDA study

All the collected data related to infrastructure will be introduced in a Geographical
Information System, which will help develop a dynamic Atlas.
The main targeted infrastructures are:
Submarine cables and stations
Regional Backbones
National Backbones with regional components
Internet Node Exchange (INX)
This data base map will be prepared on three levels:
Continental,
Regional
And national

It will be an atlas of the infrastructures mobilized and identified by all the operators
and alternative players (Energy, transport and other) and would take into
consideration the short-term projects underway.
This atlas will include two additional parts related to:
The links identified as missing and necessary for the integration of all the African
countries into the global ICT world and whose development will be a priority.
A prospective vision for the development of these infrastructures over 5 and 10
years.
Additional data (physical capacity, bandwidth) will complete this atlas.
Sources P Hamilton-M Jensen-AICD-ITU
3.4.3.2. Analytical models

One of the components of the PIDA Study is to properly sequence the proposed
infrastructures in order to ensure regional and long term development of ICT use on
the African continent.
For that reason, three models will be developed to during the Study:
 A traffic model
 An infrastructure cost model; and
 An infrastructure cost effectiveness model.

Traffic model
The objective of this model is to model traffic coming from the various ICT services to
use these infrastructures. It will help the calibration of infrastructures based on:
Current traffic, data potentially coming from data bases)
Scenarios for evolution of traffic in the medium and long terms related to:
 Evolution of the number of consumers/service
 Evolution of the volume by consumer
 Emergence of new services
The traffic model can be based on models developed and implemented within other
programs and particularly on the e-NEPAD projects. .
It will have different sensitivity levels in order to accommodate the forecasting of high
and basic traffic in accordance with the number of service users and bandwidths
required by such services. This model will be used in a more global way in phase B2.
The Infrastructure Cost Model

The Infrastructure Cost Model aims at modelling the cost of one infrastructure with
variables such as:
Traffic to be transported in the short/medium and long terms in order to ensure the
project’s sustainability
 Choices and quantifications of passive and active elements making up the
infrastructure:
The number of optical fibres in the cable
The cost of civil engineering, buildings, mats, energy station,…
Size of the infrastructure ( Km ,….)
Active equipments in the short and medium terms
Cost of facility

This model is very similar to the tools used by manufacturers of equipments or

companies providing assistance for project control. It is therefore based on a Top-
Down approach
Infrastructure Cost-effectiveness Model

The Infrastructure Profitability Model aims at modelling the low assumptions (cost of
traffic and services) to be selected in order to ensure the project’s profitability in the
medium and long terms.
Return unit cost of the services using the infrastructure (cost-oriented)
Traffic to be transported in the short/medium and long terms in order to ensure the
project’s profitability (projecting traffic in the short, medium and long terms).
This type of model is similar to the tools used by National Regulation Authorities for
the management of wholesale and retail tariffs.

4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS

DESCRIPTION
4.1. Phase I Diagnosis and in-depth analysis
The Consultant will conduct a two-fold review of: (i) the regional and continental ICT
infrastructure development policies; and (ii) the development of regional and
continental ICT infrastructure (in operation, under implementation or planned) as well
as associated services.
4.2. Task 1.1 : Review and analysis of the situation

Setting up a short; medium and long terms master plan for the ICT infrastructures at
the continental and regional levels will require:
Beginning situation of the continental and regional policies in terms of framing
environments expected to enhance the development of infrastructures.
Beginning situation of the organizations and players involved directly or indirectly
with the development of continental or regional infrastructures
Analysisof the legal and regulatory frameworks impacting the ‘infrastructure’
segments specified as having continental or regional aspect.
A first overview of the state of development of the different markets making up the
sector.
An inventory of the hard ‘infrastructures’ already deployed, being deployed or
scheduled in the short term.
This part will help the consultants to have a good overview of the situation and a
good knowledge of action undertaken in the past or scheduled in the short term.
4.2.1. Task 1.1.1 Collecting data and state of the ICT market
A continental, regional and national data base will be initiated within the framework of
the PIDA Study . This tool will be provided to the beneficiaries of the project and will
help set up an observatory in the short and medium terms. This observatory can be
developed through a specific program.
4.2.1.1. Task 1.1.1.1 Collecting data from the ICT Institutions and
from “the market”
Geographical Level
Data will be collected at three levels:
At continental level
This analysis will highlight the situation of the African continent and will help measure
the gap to be bridged in order connect the continent to the digital world.
At regional level
The comparative analysis at regional level will help identify the best performing
regions and identify the structural developments behind the best practices as well as
the necessary structural adjustments to be made at the level of the less performing
regions in order to reach global adjustment.

At national level
The analysis of the best performing markets at the national level will help identify the
reasons of their success and suggest the adjustments necessary for the less
performing countries.
The Consultant will regularly analyze the gaps between the existing data (ITU, AICD)
which are often outdated as they are at least one year old, and data coming from the
Market that are closer to the reality.
Collecting at Recs Level

As part of the “Market Data” collection involving the various countries via RECs, the
consultants will develop the related collecting forms and processes.
Knowing from experience the difficulty of developing and operating this approach, the
consultants will carry out the collecting of data in various phases in order to secure
the data collection and set up a process between RECs and regulators. If necessary
and acceptable by PIDA Stakeholders, the Consultant will provide the RECs with
strengthening capacities advices.
For these purposes the consultants will:
Set up the methodology and tools necessary for data collection from the RECs
and the regulators.
Launch the data collection process in advance in order to be able to collect as
quickly as possible some of the basic data.
Further, develop the Data Collection methodology to provide an update at regular
periods (3 months for the data most sensitive to the sector’s fluctuations such as:
the number of subscribers per service or tariffs).
4.2.1.2. Task 1.1.1.2 Consolidating existing data

The data that will be consolidated come from several sources:
AICD
Within the framework of the AICD program, the World Bank has collected data of
interest.
The data useful to the Study are essentially related to optical infrastructure.
This data has been transferred by AICD to the PIDA Study.
It is important to note that the consolidation may not be feasible if for Licence rights
reasons, there are some missing “non transferable” data.
ITU
ITU collects from governments some data on the ICT sector. Its website provides an
accessible database. The Consultant will give ta special attention to data coming
from ITU.
Like AICD, ITU’s website has the tools which allow access to a large number of data
and information on the ICT sector.
In 2005 the ITU published an Atlas of the optical infrastructures “Study on the
Infrastructures of Information and Comunication Technologies in Central, Western
and Northern Africa” (Mrs Bassave, Irzouni, Kamdem)( March 2005.)

The ITU data are consolidated with a delay of one to two years, which limits
their use
ICT “eye”
The ICT “eye” website is an ICT data base providing indicators and statistics on the
market, the profile of policies and regulators3.
NEPAD e-Africa Commission
Here the same Licence Rights issue has to be raised by the Consultant. Therefore,
the Consultant advises that discussions between the PIDA Consulting Team and the
eNEPAD have take place..
At RECs level
The collected data from RECs will be consolidated in a database with progressive
transfer of responsibility to the RECs if possible. This is part from the Consultant
proposal to provide advice on strengthening capacities.
As a matter of fact, although the task seems simple, it presents the highest risks of
impossibility for the RECs to consolidate the data if :
The actual national legal and regulatory frameworks doesn’t force the ICT actors
(operators, ISP) to provide their data to the national regulatory authorities
The NRA do not forward the data to the RECS.
In this case, The Consultant would propose solutions on adjusting the legal and
regulatory frameworks where necessary.
RECs and regulatory authorities’ reinforcement programme

In order to minimize the risk of failure and set up the sustainable tools at continental, regional
and national levels (regulators), it would be appropriate in this phase of the project to provide
the players (Recs, regulators) with a “capacity building” program in:
- Collecting market data (methodology and frequency)
- Data processing and setting up an observatory
- Processing useful data in the regulational process
4.2.2. Task 1.1.2 Initiation of continental and regional observatories

The data collected will help to build up a embryonic observatory that will provide us
with a graphic vision of the sector supported with figures in order to monitor
evolutions over time and assess the impact of actions undertaken.
The objectives of the creation of an Observatory are mainly:
Market analysis at three levels: Continental, Regional and National (per country)
by sector :
 State of development
 Quantification by sector
 Rates
 Analysis of the impact after infrastructural and regulatory developments.
3
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ICTEYE/TariffPolicies/TariffPolicies.aspx

Initiating the development of observatories

Developing models using the ICT sector data (A2)
Developing the regulation tools (recommendations)
The following tables give an example of the outputs that could be provided and
hence analyzed through an observatory
Sample graphics (the case of European countries)
4.2.3. Task 1.1.3 Initialization of a continental and regional

infrastructures atlas
To reach the PIDA objectives of review and analysis of the situation, a GIS atlas of
the physical ICT infrastructure will be implemented during the PIDA Study.
It will provide Maps of physical infrastructures at continental and regional levels and
Sub marine cable stations.
The following box presents a call for expression of interest launched by ECOWAS to
contract a specialised company for a ICT Data Base initialisation. This bow shows
the same initiative developed above is already taken by some RECs. The PIDA ICT
team will then take into consideration the work already done or planned while
building up its own atlas.
(Abuja)
Ecowas Launches Telecommunications Data Base

23 June 2010
SPONSOR WIRE
Lome - Togo — ECOWAS has taken another practical step towards addressing the dearth of up-to- date and
accurate data which will reflect its current market mapping in the telecommunications-ICT sector through the official
launching of its regional data base on Tuesday, 22nd June 2010.
A demonstration of the mode of operation and mapping methods of the data base was done at the launching and
witnessed, among others, by the Togolese Minister of Posts and Telecommunications, the ECOWAS Commissioner
for Infrastructure as well as representatives of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the regulatory
authorities for posts and telecommunications from ECOWAS Member States
As one of the priority projects of the ECOWAS Commission, SIGTEL will help inform and provide direction for
decision-makers within the region for their development policies on telecoms-ICT, evaluate the potentials of new
activities arising from opening up the telecoms-ICT market to competition and determine the possibilities for market
penetration by competitors. It will also help increase available knowledge of the telecoms-ICT market in West Africa,
enable regulatory authorities in the region to adapt regulations to changes in the sector as well as serve as a tool for
Member States to assess their progress towards achieving the objectives set by the ECOWAS Commission and
NEPAD for the telecoms-ICT sector.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201006240778.html
4.3. Task 1.2. Review of Continental and regional policies

(A1)
4.3.1. Objectives
This phase aims at analyzing the following questions:
What where the objectives of the various developed policies?
To what extent have the projected objectives been reached?
What were the obstacles in their implementation?
To carry out this analysis, the consultants will focus on the 4 key aspects of the ICT
Sector:
The continental and regional policies (Recs) on the development of infrastructures
The regulatory bodies, the legal and regulatory frameworks in force
The players (landline operators, mobile operators, ISP)
The status of developing the market segments
4.3.2. Task 1.2.1 Collection of Regional Policies and regulatory

frameworks
In order to carry out the transversal analysis of regional policies, the consultants will
collect a set of documents on ICT policies and the regulatory environments in the
various African regions.
4.3.2.1. Master plans and regional policies

The documents related to continental and regional policies will be obtained from
bodies in charge of drafting, defining and implementing them:
The African Union
The African Telecommunication Union
RECs,

The key documents are :
Strategic regional ICT infrastructure development plans
The countries’ investment master plans
4.3.2.2. The Legal and Regulatory Environment

This information is essentially available at the level of NRA.
As for data collection, the Consultant will proceed mainly through the RECs.
4.3.2.3. Other usable sources

The consultants will equally use information provided by other bodies as the
programs implemented by the European Union and ITU.
Harmonization of ICT markets for ECOWAS/WAEMU4
Harmonization of policies providing for the ICT market in the WAEMU-ECOWAS
zone ICT Policy and legislature model.5
HIPSSA :Harmonization of policies in the ACP countries
Support to the development of harmonized policies for the ICT market in the ACP
countries6
HIPPSA
Objectives
The global objective of this project is to provide harmonized ICT policies in each of the countries
involved.
Specific objectives of the global project:
Setting up and developing policies and guidelines providing for the ICT market in each of
the ACP countries;
Providing support to regional organizations and sub-regional economic blocks for the
development and promotion of using harmonized policies and regulations in the relevant
zone’s ICT market;
Institutional and capacity building in the ICT field thanks to a series of targeted measures
focused on training, education and sharing of knowledge.
Results
The project’s global projected resulted are:
Build up awareness in developing countries at the highest political level of the necessity to develop a
4
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/index-fr.html
5
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/Ghana/modules/FinalDocuments/Model_ICT_Law_Policy-fr.pdf
6
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/index-fr.html

knowledge-based economy;
Assist the developing countries to adapt their regulatory frameworks in order to develop, before ICT
infrastructure and applications; optimize economic and social advantages and meet national
priorities in accordance with the objectives of the CMDT-06 and the WSIS Action Plan;
Provide training in ICT policies, regulations and the use of ICT ; develop competences at the local
level in these fields
The project’s general objective is to contribute to the development of harmonized policies in the ICT
sector and the development of an efficient regulatory environment capable of attracting massive
investments including ICT infrastructures and applications needed by the countries. The HIPSSA
project’s component "Support to the harmonization of ICT policies in Sub-Saharan Africa", contains at a
large scale the objectives of the pilot project financed by the European Union and the ITU which was
implemented with success in Western Africa with the contribution of ECOWAS and the WAEMU.
The objective is to develop and promote harmonized policies and guidelines for the ICT market as well
as capacity building for both human capital and institutions thanks to the adoption of a targeted set of
measures involving training, education and sharing knowledge.
4.3.3. Task 1.2.2 Analysis of the existing regional policies

After the collection and inventory of documents coming from RECs, the Consultant
will analyze the master plans and/or policies in place.
The Consultant will examine, among other things, the relevance of the options taken
by the RECs. It will be taken into consideration what has been or has not been done
in terms of regional policies and will analyze the causes of failure and results in case
of success.
This part will be devoted to a posteriori analysis of the relevance of broad strategic
choices by the regions to encourage regional integration and the development of
continental and regional infrastructures.
The Consultant will also attempt to identify the role and powers of the regions for:
The development of regional guidelines on the sector
the transposition of these guidelines into decrees and laws by this region’s
countries.
The EU Directives and applications and
country transposition
Authoris ation Direc tive
Access & Interconnection

Framew ork Directi ve
Directive Univers al Se rvic e

(Art. 95) Directive
D ata P rotec tion
D ir ec tive
Li berali sation
Directive
(Art. 86)
Spec trum D ec ision
Gove rnm en t N RA
Tel ec om la w a nd
App li ca ti on s b y-law
ass oci ate d by-l aw s
Authors (ENSTB 2010)

Finally the Consultant will examine how RECs address key strategic policies as:
The development and usage of alternative infrastructures.
The coordination of frequencies

Web security
The development of excellence or training centers
After this transversal inventory, the Consultant will conclude on positive and negative
aspects as well as best practices and worst cases
A specific relevant analysis will be also made by the Consultant to compare ICT
market situation and explain the differences by the various policies and regulatory
choices made by the RECS.
Analysis « crude » of regional policies
Analyses of the SWOT type can be carried out in order to identify the strengths and
weaknesses of the regional policies on specific points.
The RECs files, completed, if required (or if possible), with country files, will
synthesize the points analyzed and/or inventory the regulation bodies and their
power on specific points.
4.3.3.1. Analyzing regional policies related to land management

In the Consultant opinion, a focus has to be done on regional policies and
coordination between states and/or the players in terms of land management. This
issue covers the question on the implementation of sustainable inter-connectable
infrastructures involving the countries of a same region or neighbouring regions.

BOX: An example of Land Management Policy

The case of Rwanda
The scheme below shows how a land management policy may develop an appropriate
environment for the development of sustainable infrastructures.
P Nyrishema RDB May 2010
4.3.3.2. Alternative Infrastructure Usage

The Consultant will also undertake the analysis of policies in terms of mobilization
and use of alternative infrastructures which could be allocated to the ICT sector.
As a matter of fact, Regional Policies have the option to maximize the cross sector
investments made in other infrastructures.
These specifically targeted sectors are:
The transport sector: Roads, railways,..
The energy sector: high voltage grids, pipelines (CAB type, Sonatrach)
Urban sectors: metropolitan networks.
This analysis will be extended in the task related to regional infrastructure by
identifying existing infrastructures, which are not used or the infrastructures planned
in the short and medium terms.
The experience of the Consultant is that the inefficiency of alternative infrastructure
usage is mainly due to the legal and regulatory environments.
4.3.4. Task 1.2.3 Analysis of regional regulation bodies and legal and
regulatory environments
4.3.4.1. Task 1.2.3.1 Regulatory bodies and other coordinates

agencies
The ICT sector is largely privatized and competitive in Africa. If competition has
contributed a great deal to the offer of services, it has enabled players to work
independently without seeking association or partnership amongst them in order to
mobilize shared infrastructure.
The legal and regulatory frameworks are the basic foundation for the development of
services provided by operators and regulation of wholesale and retail tariff policies.

As Regulatory bodies and other coordinate agencies are related to policies and their
efficiency, the consultants will address the subject using the same approach used in
the analysis of Regional and Continental policies explained above.
To do so, the Consultant will list the different regulatory bodies and their major
prerogatives impacting the development of infrastructures and tariffs.
This inventory will be made by REC and focus on governance, maturity and
regulatory capacity.
The Consultant will focus his analysis on:
Association of regional regulators
Regional and national regulators
Institutionsor bodies in charge of spectre management and coordinates (civil
aviation, maritime affairs, Audiovisual) with two objectives:
 Spectre management and coordination of frequencies at the borders
 Passage in 2020 to numeric TV
Certification bodies and authorization process
To do so, the Consultant will work with the Recs and HIPPSA on the regional
inventory and use the tools such as those developed by the ITU in e-applications.
4.3.4.2. Task 1.2.3.2 The Legal and Regulatory Environment

An efficient regulatory environment is fundamental factor for ICT infrastructure
development.
The Consultant will investigate the policies related to regulation. The Study will try to
underline where any change of the regulatory environment could have an impact to
reduce the ICT service usage price with a specific attention of ICT retail prices.
The major points that will be analyzed are:
Licenses and Authorizations delivered to the operators
Voice and data interconnection among countries
Tariff policies, their methods of regulation and implementation.
The state of the market by sector
Alternatives or additional Infrastructures
The study will attempt at identifying best practices and worst cases and will issue
recommendations for alignment and/or adjustment.
This part of the study will have as objective to evidence:
The causes behind the continental infrastructural and regional deficit in Africa.
The necessary adjustments required in terms of policies and regulatory
frameworks.
4.3.4.3. Task 1.2.3.3 Analyzing any other related factors that

impact regulatory environment
In this part, the consultants will identify and analyze other potential causes which
may affect the realization of master plans and their good implementation, the
deficiency of regulatory or other exogenous factors.
Lack of human resources

Lack of training
Tax on equipments
4.4. Task 1.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures (A2)

4.4.1. The Task’s Environment
The objective of the PIDA study is to explore the infrastructures supporting regional
integration.
Therefore, the Consultant will not study either the Radio (BTS) infrastructures used
by mobile phone operators nor the access infrastructures, which are part of national
infrastructures (out of the PIDA Study scope).
As evidenced by the maps generated using AICD/GIS by AICD Study, the return
form the field and the synthesis studies such as: «Information Society Statistical
Profiles 2009 Africa ITU-D », it is clear that ICT development in Africa is based
primarily on the mobile phone and that the majority of investments carried out during
the last few years by these same operators are essentially:
Not sustainable in the medium and long terms and are only devoted to the
implementing country (no/few interconnection at regional level); moreover a large
part of the mobile infrastructures (BSC-BTS-MSC and backbone GSM) are
handled by radio technology with limited bandwidth (few Mbps).
These infrastructures are unable to ensure potential traffic in the medium and long
terms because they cannot support internet development and the demands of a
number of users who need broadband. In certain areas 3G technologies are used
on account of lack to land technologies (ADSL,..) or dedicated technologies
(Wimax.
Author (CJB 2010)

On this basis, the Consultant concludes that the GSM infrastructure is not part of the
scope of the Review of Regional Infrastructures.
4.4.2. Objective of the task

The main objective of the task is to review regional infrastructure on the basis of the
Kigali declaration. As a matter of fact, KIGALI declaration seems a good angle of

analysis as it specifies the main regional objectives in ICT Infrastructures
development agreed at Connect Africa Summit - Investing in Africa's Future in Kigali,
29th and 30th October 2007.
Connect Africa Summit - Investing in Africa's Future

Kigali, 29th - 30th Octobre 2007
Le rapport final Connect Africa Summit Goals

Afin de renforcer et d'accélérer la mise en To reinforce the need to accelerate the
oeuvre des objectifs du SMSI, cinq objectifs implementation of the WSIS targets, the
pour Connecter l'Africa, compte tenu des Summit programme was framed around five
enjeux et perspectives de la région, ont été goals, which reflect the challenges and
présentés aux participants, qui les ont opportunities in the Africa region. These Goals
avalisés. Ces objectifs avaient été were endorsed earlier by Ministers and experts
auparavant approuvés par des ministres et from African administrations (see Annexes 1
des experts des administrations des pays and 2):
africains (voir l'Annexe):
Goal 1: Interconnect all African capitals and
Objectif 1: Interconnecter toutes les capitales major cities with ICT broadband infrastructure
et grandes villes africaines à l'infrastructure and strengthen connectivity to the rest of the
TIC large bande et renforcer la connectivité world by 2012.
avec le reste du monde à l'horizon 2012.
Goal 2: Connect African villages to broadband
Objectif 2: Connecter les villages africains ICT services by 2015 and implement shared
aux services TIC large bande à l'horizon 2015 access initiatives such as community tele-
et mettre en oeuvre des initiatives qui centres and village phones.
encouragent l'accès partagé telles que des
télécentres communautaires et des téléphones
de village. Goal 3: Adopt key regulatory measures that
promote affordable, widespread access to a full
Objectif 3: Adopter des mesures
range of broadband ICT services, including
réglementaires fondamentales qui
technology and service neutral
contribuent à promouvoir un accès
licensing/authorization practices, allocating
abordable et généralisé à toute une gamme
spectrum for multiple, competitive broadband
de services TIC large bande, y compris les
wireless service providers, creating national
pratiques d'octroi de licences/d'autorisation
Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) and
qui ne privilégient aucune technologie ni
implementing competition in the provision of
aucun service, l'attribution de fréquences
international Internet connectivity.
radioélectriques à de multiples prestataires
concurrentiels de services hertziens large
bande, la création de points d'échange
Goal 4: Support the development of a critical
Internet (IXP) et la concurrence dans la
mass of ICT skills required by the knowledge
fourniture de la connectivité Internet
economy, notably through the establishment of
internationale.
a network of ICT Centres of Excellence in each
Objectif 4: Appuyer le développement de sub-region of Africa and ICT capacity-building
compétences TIC en nombre suffisant pour and training centres in each country, with the
répondre aux besoins de l'économie du aim of achieving a broad network of inter-linked
savoir, en particulier par la création d'un hardand virtual centres, while ensuring
réseau de centres d'excellence TIC dans coordination between academia and industry by
chaque sous-région du continent africain et 2015.
par la création de centres de renforcement
Goal 5: Adopt a national e-strategy, including a
des capacités TIC et de formation aux TIC
cyber-security framework, and deploy at least
dans chaque pays, en vue d'établir un vaste
one flagship e-government service as well as e-
réseau de centres réels et virtuels reliés les

uns aux autres, tout en assurant la education, ecommerce and e-health services
coordination entre les milieux universitaires using accessible technologies in each country
et les professionnels du secteur, à l'horizon in Africa by 2012, with the aim of making
2015. multiple e-government and other eservices
widely available by 2015.
Objectif 5: Adopter une cyberstratégie
nationale, dont un cadre de cybersécurité, et http://www.itu.int/ITU-
mettre en œuvre au moins un service D/connect/africa/2007/summit/pdf/finalreport.pdf
modèle d'administration publique en ligne,
Included in PIDA Study scope
ainsi que des services de cyber-
enseignement, de commerce électronique et
de cyber-santé utilisant des technologies
accessibles dans chaque pays d'Africa, à
l'horizon 2012, en vue de mettre de multiples
services d'administration publique en ligne et
d'autres services en ligne à la portée de
tous, à l'horizon 2015.
http://www.itu.int/ITU-
D/connect/africa/2007/summit/pdf/finalreport-
fr.pdf
faisant partie du périmètre de l’étude PIDA
Within this framework, and in order to achieve the underlined goals, the Consultant
will identify the existing infrastructures with high continental and regional integration
potential.
The analyses of the existing, being developed or planned infrastructures will focus
particularly on:
Submarine cable stations
Infrastructures connecting these stations to the countries’ capitals
Infrastructures interconnecting the countries
Interconnection infrastructures between segments and infrastructures “national”
4.4.3. Task 1.3.1 Identification and Analysis of existing infrastructures

During the process of collecting data on physical infrastructures, and its introduction
into PIDA study’s GIS after verification of the authenticity of the collected data, the
Consultant will work on the geographical data in order to identify their relevance in
terms of classification as regional infrastructure.
The Consultant will particularly analyze:
How these infrastructures contribute to regional integration otherwise what kind of
adjustment is needed to ensure this contribution
In the case of landlocked countries, particular attention will be paid to the
infrastructures potentially usable in order to access submarine cable stations and
notably aspects related to the right of passage (Corridor, trans-boundary).
Their technical specifications such as capacity and quality.
Interconnection points (POP) and the facilities offered (interconnection, hosting,..)
4.4.4. Task 1.3.2 Identification of projects under implementation and

preparation
In its review of regional infrastructure, the consultants will take into consideration
infrastructures which would be operational in the short and medium terms.

The Consulted will use these identified infrastructures by:

Introducing them into the cartography documents (GIS) in order to have a view of
their contribution to regional as well as continental integration.
Dating them in order to identify their operation and assess their impact.
Quantifying them in order to identify their evolution in the medium and long terms.
Qualifying them in order to ensure that they will be usable for the transport of
much more important flow of traffic and set up in accordance with the best
practices principle.
This data would be treated confidentially as they are part of the business secrets of
the private operators and therefore cannot be unveiled.
4.4.5. Task 1.3.3 Detailed analysis of a set of regional infrastructure

projects
In this part devoted to the analysis of regional infrastructures and some targeted
projects, the consultants will analyze in-depth some identified and selected
infrastructures according to their modelling as best practices or worst cases.
The analysis of a set of project will be based on a bottom-up approach.
Supply Driven methodology Analysis
NEPAD of existing regional projects
Bottom-up approach Approved Recs
Recs Policy projects
Existing infrastructures
Analyse of existing
projects
Identification of ICT Regional projects Regional projects

GIS infrastructures projects Regional projects implement and implement and
managed by multi-countries
Supply Driven methodology managed and executed per one Rec managed by one country
Bottom-up approach
Bottom up study and analyse Selection of Selection of Selection of
of relevant projects relevant projects relevant projects
ICT Infrastructures projects
Regional Impact analysis Regional Impact analysis Regional Impact analysis
Analysis of project Analysis of project Analysis of project

management and operation management and operation management and operation
Needs for Investment Difficulties during Difficulties during Difficulties during

the project cycle the project cycle the project cycle
investment programmes
coming from bottom-up approach
PIDA Study 18 PIDA Study 17
In this task, the Consultant will concentrate his analysis on the physical situation of
the mentioned infrastructures and if possible, the state of progress for their operation
The consultants will focus essentially on:
Connecting countries to the rest of the world
Inter-connecting neighbouring countries.
The projects (Minimum 5), will be selected as:
The STAP action plan
The World Bank projects
The projects by operators or equippers
ICT Infrastructure projects in Africa

As an example : infrastructure list of ICT projects will include (not
exhaustive):
- EASSY

- RASCOM
- SEACOM
- The East African Marine System (TEAMS)
- Central African Backbone (CAB)
- East African Broadband Network (EABN)
- Maritime Communications for Safety on Lake Victoria (MCSLV)
- Sub-Saharan Africa Basic Network-Terrestrial Link SATA
- Optical Network of the ECOWAS electricity Consortium
- Other projects like as Maghreb Fiber Interconnect and Initiative Program to
broaden & enhance Africa's participation in Global ICT will be also
considered in the data gathering phase
4.5. Task 1.4 Establishment of the outlook for the future

and identification of challenges (B)
4.5.1. Objectives
The objective of this phase is to establish the outlook for the future for the
development of regional and continental ICT services infrastructures by 2020 and
assess the challenges that the regions and the continent will have to face in the
sector. Such an outlook should serve as a basis for the formulation of realistic long-
term objectives, to be targeted by policies and programs at the continental level in
order to anchor infrastructure development into regional integration and trade
cooperation in Africa.
The consultant will consider carefully the extent to which the models already
developed by the AICD team can be utilized to establish the outlook for the future.
They might be valuable for developing different outlook scenarios guided by political
priorities.
4.5.2. Task 1.4.1. Establishment of an outlook for the future (B.1)
4.5.2.1. An outlook for the Future and Kigali Agreement

In the Kigali agreements and other additional programs, the vision of ICT
development in Africa is clearly expressed. The analysis of stated objectives is the
evidence that some of them are short-term objectives (2012) and medium term
objectives (2015) while 3 objectives are directly related to the PIDA Study.
4.5.2.2. Task 1.4.1.1 Defining Assumptions and Forecast

methodology
Defining assumptions VS Accomplished Facts

Defining the good assumptions is a challenge as the ICT market is dynamic.
The Consultant will work with data: that will help anticipate the needs in the short
and medium terms (by 2015).
These data are the ones that are:
The most up to date
Issued by market participants
Clarified using benchmarking

The analysis of the state and usage of ICT in the world highlights a large number of
points, which are not taken as assumptions but as “faits accomplis”.
ICT sector development is not driven by the economic indicators but by market and
contents development.
Facts
Broadband
Low or medium flow internet (< 4 Mbps) has no future in the short term (3 years or
less) and is largely outdated for a large number of applications.
The data traffic (for some countries has already) will rapidly become more important
than voice traffic at regional and continental level.
High broadband development
Submarine cables in Africa landed or reaching so on Africa have a global capacity of
many terabytes compared to 200 Gbps available today Africa mainly via satellite and
to 1,996 Gbps consumed by South America. Other submarine cables will be
deployed in the short term (< 2015) ending the isolation of some coastal countries
(not necessarily the players) and not the landlocked countries.
The players’ habits and traditions
If the operators are ready to share hard infrastructures (optical cable, POP), they
want to be in great part “masters” of the usage thanks to active equipments (DWDM,
SDH, IP switch) in order to ensure independence and flexibility and react very rapidly
( < 1 month) to a sector’s evolution .
Within this framework, thanks to their experience and connections with the sectors’
players, the Consultant will take into consideration this fundamental parameter in the
future uses of these infrastructures made by operators.
Access networks to be set up
ADSL and cable modem, the dominant technologies to provide broadband services
in Europe and North America, are not a future technology for the African continent
except for some « small islands » (countries with high density of landline network or
big cities)
The 3G technology is a reparation technology used today in a large number of
African countries but remains limited in terms of evolution and capacity. It will be
taken into consideration as part of assumptions until 2015/18 for evolution of traffic
by this market segment.
Assumptions
If a number of parameters can be taken as certitudes in the medium term, the
perspectives of developing broadband services in Africa remain related to a number
of assumptions.
Developments of the retail market
The voice market: If the growth of GSM users in Africa has been exponential (and
unexpected during the first years of its commercialization), the medium term growth
line will become asymptomatic as everywhere in the world by market saturation.
The Broadband Market: The Broadband market in Africa will be highly in demand. It
is highly probable therefore that the growth of the broadband market will be the one
to take most of the infrastructure in terms of usage (the traffic of data will be higher
than that of the voice traffic).

The assumptions must take into consideration the potential growth of a number of
subscribers per country and the “out of country” traffic (regional or continental)
generated by these consumers.
Therefore, it is essential to include 3 variables in the forecasts all of which are
variables in time
Growth rate of the number of consumers per country (high and low profiles)
Growth rate of the traffic generated by each user (high and low profiles)
Growth rate of the traffic “regional” generated by these same consumers
It is important to note that these variables taken as assumptions are closely related
for each country to the land management policies as well as the legal and regulatory
policies (regulation of prices)
Regional and continental Traffic

The growing needs in terms of continental and regional infrastructures depend
entirely on all other national demand growth.
In order to assess needs, the Consultant will use a number of routing ratios and
matrices issued from benchmarking or the sector’s players.
Like national traffic, regional traffic will be assessed using high and low brackets. By
caution measures, the calibration of infrastructures will carried out according to high
traffic in order to ensure the sustainability of infrastructures after 2020.
Within this framework; the Consultant will rely on the benchmark analysis as well as
the quantified observations on Eats Africa ( Eassy, E-NEPAD,..).
In these same countries, as in AMU countries (Morocco, Tunisia) the offer of access
to a final residential user is not carried out via DSL any longer but rather via optical
fibre.
Forecasting Model
In order to calibrate the hard infrastructures, the generated and expected traffic at the
various locations of the regional infrastructures, modelling is required.
Therefore, a model will be used in accordance with the assumptions and scenarios
for the calibration of the needed infrastructures taking into consideration the need to
ensure their long term viability for the depreciable parts over more than 5 or 10 years.
Within this framework, the Consultant will use a specific model, which will be
developed or adapted (from the ones developed by AICD or e-NEPAD) in order to
satisfy the expectations in terms of results. This model has been described earlier.
4.5.2.3. Task 1.4.1.2 Analysis and projections

The ICT planning exercise contains a vision of the market expectations by 2012,
2015 and 2020. The Consultant, based on his experience in European countries and
samples from Africa (RSA, e-NEPAD), will take into consideration the short term
(active equipment), and the long term (sustainable infrastructure), which will be
assessed to see their efficiency after 2020 (calibration based on the probable
anticipation principle).
These analyses and assumptions will help identify, plan and implement a long term
structuring investment program.

Benchmarking analyses will complete the assumptions in order to provide evidence

for the great gaps, which if remedied help end the entrapment of central African
countries as well as the whole continent. The risk of under-calibration (bottlenecks)
for existing programs or underway will be closely analyzed.
Based on these assumptions and parameters, the Consultant will forecast the
current and potential needs as well as the expectations related to the ICT sector. For
these purposes, there is an obligation to work at the national (country), as the traffic
generated on regional, continental levels in Africa is a percentage of the national
traffics.
National traffic need for bandwidth per country (Gbps) will be carried out using high
and low assumptions of the number of consumers. This is related to the assumptions
of needs by consumer (bandwidth per consumer).
Generated by national flows, the regional flows will be estimated in order to define
expectations per region. This is a very sensitive point for landlocked countries as the
flow is added to that of the crossed countries. Regional flow will be highly sensitive to
the infrastructure parameters related to the countries such as the presence of
interconnection nodes or data centres.
Trans-national flow to access submarine cables will be modelled. They are highly
sensitive to the two large flows mentioned earlier as they are themselves but an
outcome. Here, the expected volumes are sensitive to the surrounding infrastructures
which are INX (IXP), the presence of data centres or the services developed using
internet and used by consumers (we can mention some of these services such as
Skype, Youtube, Facebook… which today are big consumers of bandwidth and
which are for the moment are international flows in Africa)
The results of using this model are :
National flow (as an indication and an estimate) per country
Regional flow per RECs
Continental flow or trans-continental flow (out of Africa) to submarine cable
stations.
The high regional flows, trans-African and trans-continental flows will also be
highlighted
Risk assessment of the sector: study related to the outlook for the future
The Consultant, and Africa are facing a real challenge which is to forecasts the
‘unforecastable’: the development and use of the internet in the world and activities,
which are exceedingly greedy in terms of traffic consumption.
To minimize the risks, it is necessary to separate investments whose components
are depreciable in the short term (active elements) from structuring investments
(optical fibre), which have a life beyond 2020. If there is a high risk incurred by the
“active elements”, it would be possible to minimize considerably the structuring
investments, big consumers of capitals depreciable in the long term.
4.5.2.4. Task 1.4.1.3 Validation workshop

A workshop will be organized by the Client and the Consultant, and will bring
together stakeholders (especially the RECs and AU specialized institutions/sector
organizations) and resource persons (‘external experts’). The purpose of the
workshop will be to discuss the methodological note due 11 weeks after the start of

the study, and validate the assumptions and parameters to guide the final
projections.
Participants would include, inter alia, the RECs, the panel of experts, PIDA sponsors,
and the Consultant. Its main purpose will be to form a common, long-term social and
economic vision, and a consensus on the assumptions, parameters and methodology
on the basis of which the consultants will finalize his projections for regional and
continental infrastructure development up to 2020.
4.5.2.5. Task 1.4.1.4 Formulation of the Outlook for 2012, 2015

and 2020
Taking into account the outcome of the validation workshop and the previous work,
the Consultant will draft a document on the perspectives of ICT in Africa.
To complete this document, synthesis files (Regional and national as well as maps)
will be developed. They will complete those already developed during earlier tasks
and would allow the completion of and centralization of information on the sector.
These documents and e-files are part of Report I.
4.5.3. Task 1.4.2 Analysis of choices and challenges (B.2)
This part will complete the results of task B1 and analyze the options or choices to be
made in order to solve the constraints or risks identified in B1.
The principal factor analyzed will be:
The general macro economic framework provided by the horizontal team.
How the choices made and the identified projects can be integrated into the
regions’ policies and development/master plans and how they can improve the
objectives.
The conflicts and incompatibilities to be solved
 The role of the private sector in this plan (operators…)
4.5.3.1. Task 1.4.2.1 Analysis and assessment of the outlook for the
future
After the validation of perspectives given by the outlook produced at the previous
stage, the Consultant will analyze mainly the constraints for the implementation of the
perspectives and the resulting scenarios.
In this task, the Consultant will review the different scenarios and analyze:
Their answers to expectations in terms of continental and regional integration
How they integrate into the regional policies and/or what they generate as
adjustments
Their cost according to the selected intra-project scenario
The perspectives of their growth with particular attention to long term viability (>
10 years) of the most expensive items.
The legal and regulatory environments to be developed in order to make them
economically viable.
The Consultant will also analyze

The potential impact of the regional policies on scenario developed and will try to
bring the required adjustments
Items to be set up according to the technical priority order (access to submarine
cables before having a large number of BB consumers for example).
The legal and regulatory gaps and identify the necessary structural adjustments
for the realization of objectives.
The Study will give particular attention to the landlocked countries and how they can
have access to submarine cables stations for reasonable prices.
4.5.3.2. Task 1.4.2.2 Objective setting

The ToR stipulate that the consultant shall propose a number of realistic of objectives
that the Decision makers could set for their long term regional infrastructure
development policies in the ICT sector..
The consultants will propose the priorities which will help move as close as possible
to the Kigali Agreements and to solve the major identified problems.
At this stage, possible specific objectives of the PIDA ICT investment program could
be listed as follows:
Establishing a harmonized policy, legal and regulatory frameworks at the regional
and continental levels to develop an attractive and positive market for investment
and to foster the sustainable development of ICT infrastructure in African regional
markets;
Accelerating the development of integrated infrastructures that will help bridge the
digital divide, i.e. foster access to reliable and quality ICT services that will be
affordable for the greatest number of the population in Africa;
Promoting e-applications and services aimed at improving government services
(e-government), education (e-education), trade and business (e-commerce), and
other social services, and the performance of the other productive sectors of the
economy;
Increasing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of services and
enabling the integration of Africa into the global economy;
Capacity building (in ICT skills) and innovation systems including centers of
excellence;
Reducing or eliminating transit of intra and interregional traffic out of the continent.
The final formulation of the specific program objectives will be agreed upon with the
stakeholders.
4.5.4. Task 1.4.3 Preparation of an outline programme (B3)
4.5.4.1. Background
According to the TORs, on the basis of (i) the review of regional and continental
infrastructure conducted under the task A2; (ii) the formulation of the outlook for the
future conducted under task B1, the Consultant shall present an outline development
programme for ICT infrastructure and associated services in which the following shall
be highlighted:
Investment projects by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new ideas)

Institutional and legal framework/policies and other soft interventions that are
required
Relevant implementation stakeholders
First cost quantifications and estimated deadlines
Specific choices and decision making issues, in particular regarding projects for
which bankability is uncertain.
4.5.4.2. Task 1.4.3.1 Short term Projects (< 2012)

The consultants will identify a number of priorities which will help attain the Kigali
objectives namely part of those expected to be or to have been realized by 2012
including:
Small projects like those presented by The World Bank ( CF meeting in
Washington :10 Lessons AICD : 30 small projects/)
Developing IXP in all the countries
Sustainable or non-sustainable links ensuring regional integration and mainly
reducing the cost for consumers (interconnecting neighbouring countries)
Soft projects reducing the use cost by consolidating certain points and regulation
principles (Interconnection, Wholesale et rented lines Websecurity,…).
4.5.4.3. Task 1.4.3.2 Projects beyond 2012

Within the market dynamics and based on lessons learned and benchmarking
analyses, hard infrastructure projects should focus on the densification of ‘cobwebs’
developed during the preceding periods which are marked by incertitude as far as
ICT perspectives by 2015 are concerned.
Projects beyond 2012 should be rather the task of each country by increasing optical
connectivity between the cities (2015-201x) and eventually for the most dynamic and
performing between the cities of average importance.
4.6. Task 1.5 Phase I Report

4.6.1. Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I ICT sector report
The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the ICT team members
on their respective tasks relating to the review and analysis of policies, institutions,
legal frameworks, existing and planned projects, on the outlook for the future, on the
choices and challenges, and on the preliminary outline program.
4.6.2. Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports

The ICT Phase I Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to
constitute the Phase I Report.
4.7. Phase II Formulation of a draft strategic framework,

programme and implementation strategy
The purpose of Phase II is to consult with stakeholders on the findings of Phase I, in
order to develop a draft strategic framework, infrastructure development program,
and implementation strategy and processes.
There are broadly two components to Phase II:

The preparation and holding of a strategic workshop to consult with RECs, and
other stakeholders on the Phase I findings;
The preparation of a draft final report containing the three outputs required from
the study (strategic framework, infrastructure development program,
implementation strategy and processes)
Full engagement with the RECs will be essential, as the RECs, working closely with
national governments, will be the main implementers of the final output of PIDA.
The aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained participatory and
consultative process, and on the basis of previous studies, a consensus on the
essential elements of a regional and continental ICT strategic framework (including
sector policies), infrastructure development program, and implementation strategy
and processes.
4.7.1. Background
As announced in the TOR, the aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained
participatory and consultative process,, a consensus on the essential elements of a
regional and continental ICT strategic framework (including sector policies),
infrastructure development programme, and implementation strategy and processes.
The key issues that should be addressed include:
Development of integrated infrastructures and access networks as the
cornerstone of e-access, with efficient cross-border interconnectivity to provide
increased access to ICT services for the greatest number of the African
population, including the improvement of connectivity of the African continent with
other continents;
Networks intercompatibility, and fostering convergence, interoperability,
interconnections, continental roaming and services;
Establishing a level playing field for the business/regional ICT market;
Open and non-discriminatory access;
Fostering integrated e-strategies at national, regional and international level;
Management of scarce resources, such as frequencies, numbers, rights of way;
Security and reliability;
Institutional
framework and issues of infrastructure ownership and operations and
maintenance;
The financing mechanisms and options available;
4.7.1.1. Specific target

During this phase, the strategic framework, programme and implementation strategy
shall focused also on some specific areas as:
Spectrum management and monitoring

To secure the usage of the spectrum (scarce resource), national policy shall be in
conformity with a certain number of ITU rule as:
National Frequency Plan (NFP)
Spectrum management and monitoring tolls in accordance with the ITU standards

Access to sub-marine cable and “transboundary networks”

The fair access to sub marine cable and the feasibility of “transboundary network”
offering interconnection for land-locked countries is essential to avoid Intra African
Digital devide.
Open and non-discriminatory access and other appropriate environment will be
analyse and reinforce if required.
Web security Policy

Implement continental policy in term of Websecurity and Cybercriminality shall be
studied carefully.
A specific programme at continental and regional levels shall be developed.
4.8. Task 2.1 Strategic workshops

To achieve these objectives of this phase, the consultant will carry out a series of
sector workshops involving all key stakeholders. The aim of the workshops will be to
develop proposals based on the outlines prepared during the previous phase.
The consultant’s work on this phase will include:
Preparing workshops;
Formulating a preliminary draft implementation strategy and processes.
4.8.1. Task 2.1.1 Preparation and holding of sector workshops

A series of workshops will be organized with key stakeholders (especially the RECs
and specialized AU institutions/sector organizations) to consult on the orientation of
continental/regional policies, and on the key ingredients required to develop the
strategic framework, infrastructure development programme, and implementation
strategy and processes.
The work will be conducted based on the Consultant’s analyses performed during
Phase I.
The workshops will represent an important stage in the process of ownership by
regional entities and will look for consensus on major trends and actions.
4.8.2. Task 2.1.2 Preparation of briefs for strategic the workshops

In close collaboration with the Client, the Consultant will prepare briefs to contribute
to the workshop discussions. Such briefs, prepared on the basis of the Phase I
report, will be specific to each region. They will include summaries of:
The conclusions of reviews of regional policies and the implementation of
infrastructure development programmes:
Policies and infrastructure situation state of the art (including programmes and
projects);
The main drivers and inhibitors identified;
Key messages for stakeholders;

The conclusions of projections of needs in ICT infrastructure and associated
services, and an analysis of coherence with sector policies and economic
guidelines;
A set of recommendations aimed at strengthening regional and continental
policies on ICT infrastructure and associated services’ development and
management.
4.8.3. Task 2.1.3 Formulation of o preliminary draft Strategic

framework
At the end of the workshops, the consultant will prepare a report highlighting:
The guidelines formulated by participants on the strategic framework including
sector policies;
The ICT infrastructure development programme, and implementation strategy and
processes;
The participants’ agreed levels at which the measures and initiatives should be
undertaken: continental or regional;
The identification of interfaces between the regional and continental levels on
which to undertake these measures, and initiatives issues on which participants
could not reach a consensus;
The list of additional analyses brought forward and necessary for the consolidation
of results;
4.8.4. Task 2.1.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft Infrastructure

development programme
As shown before, the projects and programs will involve the extension or
improvement of existing infrastructure, the construction of new infrastructure, and the
strengthening of the enabling environment. The projects and programs will be
prioritized in relation to the objectives that they are expected to help achieve. There
will also be preliminary assessments to determine the relative importance of the
expected project impacts and highlight possible conflicting objectives.
The investment programme will consist of a pipeline of regional projects and
programs, composed of a balanced combination of hard and soft
interventions/studies over three time horizon:
Short term 2010-2012
Medium term 2012-2015
Long term 2015.........
The projects that will be included in the preliminary draft infrastructure development
programme will be based on the following methodology:
Methodology for the evaluation of hard infrastructure project
The evaluation of such a regional infrastructure project is based on an approach of 7
phases and will require three models.

Phase 1 – Defining the topology of the infrastructure

 Top-down approach
Phase 2 – assessing demand and demand in the short, medium and long
terms
 Number of consumers per service, traffic by consumer, etc
Phase 3 – Calibration of infrastructure
 The calibration of infrastructures will be calculated according to the routing
factor, demand and engineering rules.
Phase 4 –Evaluation of the cost of infrastructure
 The evaluation of the budget will be based on the calibration of infrastructure
and the cost of elements.
Phase 5 – Allocation of costs
 The cost of infrastructure is allocated to the various departments and/or players
using the infrastructure (based on capacity).
Phase 6 – Cost of services
 The mode calculates the unit cost for each service (voice, data/minutes,
Mbps…)
Phase 7 – Defining the profitability of the infrastructure
 OPEX and common costs are based on best practices and benchmarks.
 Capex and depreciation by sub-groups are identified.
 The profitability potentials are assessed using a scenario based on evaluation
of traffic and teh cost of using services ( cts €/minute, cts€/Mbps,..
Software Infrastructures
Some “soft” infrastructures will be integrated in the preliminary draft Infrastructure
development programme.
4.8.4.1. Prioritization of projects

Prioritization of projects is essential, as it will help to focus efforts on a realistic core
of projects, and to build consensus among all stakeholders (including financing
partners) around that core. Evaluation and prioritization criteria will be proposed with

the preliminary development programme and progressively refined by the consultant
based on thorough discussions with program sponsors, RECs and other
stakeholders.
The points on which the consultants will mainly focus are the lacking infrastructures
at the origin of regional or continental bottlenecks.
For these purposes, the consultants will work mainly on:
4.8.4.2. Soft Infrastructures (2012-2015)

Adjust policy and regulatory environment shall be implemented as soon as possible
to :
Reduce the end user price of ICT service (Priority Nb 1)
Provide a strong legal and regulatory basis for sustainable infrastructure
deployment
4.8.4.3. Hard Infrastructures (2012-2015)

Taking into consideration the state of regional infrastructures inventoried in Phase I;
the consultants will develop roadmaps highlighting:
Laying submarine cables

A background part will highlight the laying of various submarine cables taking into
consideration the dates of operation and capacity.
A focus will be put on developing infrastructures showing how they will progressively
cover the whole continent..
Optical links of continental or regional aspect adding the players’ expectations as
well as their practices (identified by benchmark or direct contact) as the location of
FO vs λ or bandwidth.
The infrastructures traffic exchange points (telehouse, POP, IXP,..).
Within the framework of the Study, it is important to note that developing
perspectives in terms of infrastructure, the part « active equipments » will be often
occulted as it corresponds to investments generally carried out by the operators or
the ISP. The problem to be solved is essentially a rationalization of investments in
sustainable infrastructures (FO and POP type). It has to do with heavy investments
operators are not always ready to do in an isolated manner. One of the project’s big
challenges is somehow similar to what happened in Europe since 1998 and which
accelerated in 2002 after the internet bubble. It has to do with learning the methods
of assisting players in working together through mutualized investments (sleep with
the enemy).

June 2010 INX status in Africa
4.8.5. Task 2.1.5 Formulation of a preliminary implementation

strategy and processes
The Consultant will prepare a preliminary draft of “implementation strategy and
processes”, based on the analysis of the potential barriers to implementation.
Successful implementation of the infrastructure development program will depend on
building a consensus among all stakeholders around a realistic platform of measures
and projects. The implementation strategy and processes will involve the
development of priority measures, resources and tools to support the successful
implementation of PIDA, including:
Priority actions to be undertaken in the period 2010-2012 in terms of both physical
investments and associated measures required to secure successful implementation
(e.g. policy, institutional, regulatory, financial, legal). This set of actions shall form the
Priority Action Plan, which will be designed in a form to be a roll-over action plan.
Respective roles of regional and continental entities and institutions in the
implementation of the Priority Action Plan, and more generally in the preparation and
implementation of further investment programs as well as in the elaboration and
application of regional and continental policies.
Technical and political processes need to go hand in hand in arriving at agreement
on a set of prioritized ICT infrastructure projects, based on sound technical and
consensus-based proposals. Since the process of identifying, assessing and
agreeing on a set of priority projects requires substantial negotiation and buy-in at a
political level, the consultant will carefully consider options for the level of detail that
is feasible.
One option may be to establish a set of agreed core principles at a continental level,
and promote policy development at a regional level.
The study will review all institutional arrangements that affect the development and
delivery of infrastructure services at the regional and continental levels, and will make
recommendations on how they could be modified to improve infrastructure services.
The recommendations will draw on the causal analysis undertaken in Phase I.
How the regional and continental policies, entities, institutions and private actors
could contribute to resolving the issue of financing proposed investments and their
sustainability, covering both construction and operation and maintenance of the
infrastructure.

Mobilizing regional and external financing and private sector participation. The study
will address the mobilization of funding within the region, and from development
partners and the private sector.
The existing situation will be evaluated, and projections made of the likely financial
resource envelopes for regional infrastructure projects, based on an analysis of past
trends and other relevant factors.
We will produce scenarios of future financial resources within which development
projects and programs can be prioritized.
These projections will be based on realistic assumptions, and, as far as possible,
innovative ways of finding solutions to these recurrent issues. The consultants will
propose measures likely to help mobilize private sector participation in infrastructure,
and strengthen cooperation with international development partners.
Civil society participation will be encourage in the preparation and implementation of
proposed measures in terms of policies as well as physical investments. In this
context, we will propose communication and dissemination measures that regional
and continental entities and institutions may undertake in order to enhance civil
society participation.
Defining an implementation and monitoring process: This involves proposing to
stakeholders, the mechanisms and tools to:
Review and update over time the strategic framework and infrastructure
development program;
Actively manage the roll-over Priority Action Plan.
With respect to the action plan, this will mainly consist of knowing how to initiate and
complete an action, as well as how to monitor the progress of the action. This
process will include:
Capacity building:
The formulation of recommendations for the institutional capacity building of
continental and regional entities responsible for monitoring, coordinating and
managing the implementation of the agreed measures and actions (while
implementation of the recommendations will be the direct responsibility of the entities
concerned, and will be carried out outside this study).
Monitoring mechanism.
Starting from the work already done to design the NEPAD Project Management
System (NPMS), and the upgrading of this system under MLTSF, we will assess the
adequacy of the present data base as an effective monitoring mechanism, and
formulate observations, comments and recommendations on its upgrading to the
extent that this is assessed to be necessary. The final design and implementation of
any improved monitoring mechanism will be carried out separately from this study.
4.8.6. Task 2.1.6 Phase II Report
4.8.6.1. Task 2.3.1. Drafting Phase II ICT sector report

The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the team members on
their respective tasks relating to the preliminary strategic framework, the preliminary
investment program, and the preliminary implementation strategy and processes.

4.8.6.2. Task 2.3.2 Integration of the four sector reports

The ICT Phase II Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to
constitute the Phase II Report.
5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE

As stated in the general part of the report, the proposed time line would be as
follows:
The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for
Phase I and Phase II.



6.1. Expertise of the team
A team of four experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 21,5
man months. The team has the full range of expertise required:
ICT Team leader
ICT Strategy Expert
ICT Programme Expert
ICT Projection Expert
In addition to the resources of the Team, the ICT sector will call the intervention of
two cross sectoral team members:
GIS Expert
Legal Expert
6.2. Tasks assignments

one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of man months for


INCEPTION REPORT
ANNEXES
Annexe 1 : List of documents consulted
Annexe 2 : List of people met
Annexe 3 : Team and expertise
Annexe 4 : Specific Sector Annexes (Energy).
INCEPTION REPORT
ANNEXE 1
List of documents consulted
Consortium SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA

INCEPTION REPORT
LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS FOR THE GENERAL SECTION – PIDA Study
1 AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental Integration in Africa –
NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa- 2010 (Main and Final Technical Report)
2 The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion Papers and
Reports
3 MLTSF Study Independent Assessors Report – February 2009
4 African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2010
5 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002 – Draft Final Ver.2
6 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan – Review of Implementation Progress Report 2003
7 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Second Review of Implementation Progress and Way Forward –
Continental Synthesis Report 2004
8 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports 2010 (Soft
Copy in NEPAD STAP Documents CD)
9 Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV – Enhancing Intra-African Trade, - ECA, AU, ADB Report- May
2010 - (Nara ana Soft Copy ,n CD)
10 African Development Bank (ADB) : Review of Regional Operations Draft – May 2010
11 Final Report: Ecowas Railways Inter connection Study
12 L'Union Africaine – Le Nouveau Partenariat Pour le Developpement De L'Afrique – Programme of Actions

13 ADB- Africa Infrastructure Maps (Roads, Railway, Electricity, Optical Fibre)
14 ADB: Bank Group's Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Operations Strategy – Revised
Version –ADF/BD/WP/2008/74/Rev.1 03 October 2008 – Soft Copy
15 Policy for Integrated Water Resources
16 Economic Cooperation and Regional Integration Policy
17 Proposal for Clean Energy Investment Frarr ework for Africa
18 AfDB Group Regional Integration Strategy 2009-2012
19 Trans African Highway Report – Missing Links
20 Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformaion, 2010; The World Bank
21 WB Regional Integration Investment Portfolio (IDA and Global Environment Fund)
22 IDA 15 Mid Term Review of the IDA Regional Programme (CFPIR) October 2009
23 WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14)
24 AICD Papers New as of 18 May 2010 not in 1. File Folders
24a •BP2- Access & Affordability

INCEPTION REPORT
24b •ICT Sector Review
24c •Air Transport Review
24d •Irrigation Sector Review
24e •Infrastructure Financing
24f •Power Sector Review
24g •Water Sector Review
24h •Railway Sector Review
24i •Sanitation Sector Review
24j •Urban Transport Review
24k •Ports Review
24l •Roads Sector Review
24m •Power Spending Needs
24n •Transport Spending Needs
24o •Irrigation Spending Needs
24p •ICT Investment Needs
24q •Unit Costs of Infrastructure
26 Data Manuals- Latest Version of Data manuals, 15 April 2010
27 GIS Data for Urban maps showing GDP spikes: - A iailable from "G Econ Nordhaus Yale" site
28 AICD Working Papers
28a •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008
28b •Paying the Price of Unreliable Power. Supplies: In-House Generation of Electricity by Firms: Vivien Foster
& Jergenijs Stinbuks, Janauary 2008
28c •Electricity Reforms in Mali: A Macro – Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution; Dorothee
Bacaufuso, Antonio Estache and Luc Savard, April 2008
28d •Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Mac-o – Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution;
Dorothee Bacaufw o, Antonio Estache and Luc Savard, April 2008

INCEPTION REPORT
28e oBuilding Sector Concerns into Macto economic and Financial Programming; Lessons from Senegal and
Uganda; Antonio Estache & Rafael Munoz, April 2008
28f •Cost Recovery, Equity and Efficiency in Water Tariffs: Evidence from African Utilities; - Sudeshua
Banerjee, Vivien Forster, Yvonne Ying, Heather Skilling and Quetin Wodon – May 2008
28i •Local Sources of Financing Infrastructure in Africa: A Cross Country Analysis; Jacqueline Irving & Astrid
Mauroth, Detember 2008
28j •Assessing the Impact of Infrastructure Civality on Firm Productivity in Africa: Cross Country Comparisons
Based on Investn'ent Climate Surveys – 1999-2009- Alvaro Escribano, J.Luis Gausch and Jorge Pena
February 2009;
28k •Assessing the Impact of Infrastructure Quality on Firm Productivity in Africa: Appendix 1-4: Figures &
Tables Referenced in the Text; Alvaro Escribano, J.Luis Gausch and Jorge Pena, February 2009;
28l oPoverty, Living Conditions and Infrastructure Access: A comparison of slums in Dakar, Johannesburg and
Nairobi; Surnila Gulyani, Debabrata Talukdar and Darby Jack, February 2009
28m oProvision of Water to the Poor in Africa. Experience with Water Standpost and Informai Sector: Sarah
Keener, Manuel Luengo, and Sudeshna Banerjee, April 2009
28n OTransport Prices and Costs in Africa: A review of the main International Corridors;
28o •Suppee Teravaninthorn & Gael Ruballancl, July 2008
28p •The Impact of Infrastructure Spending in Sub Saharan Africa: A CGE ModelingApproach; Jean Francois
Perrault, Luc Savard and Antonio Estache – February 2008
28q •Water Reforms in Senegal: A Regional and Interpersonal Distribution Impact Analysis
28r •Crop productivity and road connectivity in Sub Saharan Africa: A spatial Analysis- Paul Dorosh, Hyoung
Gun Wang, Liang You and Emily Schmidth; February 2009
28s •Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Enclowment: A Renchmarking Approach: Tito Xepes, Justin Pierce
and Vivien Foster; Jrnuary 2008
29 SSATP Working Paper No,89- A Framework for a pro-growth, Pro-poor Transport Strategy, Nahusenay
Mitiku
30 SSATP Working Paper No. 86 – Institutional Arrangements for Transport Corridor Management in Sub-
Saharan Africa; Yao Adzigbey, Charles Kunaka, Tesfamichel Nahusenay Mitiku
31 SSATP- Second Development Plan 2008 – 2011 – Fostering Sound Policies and Strategies for the Provision
of Reliable, Safe, Efficient and Affordable Transport, October 2007
32 IDA 15 Mid-Term Review of the IDA Regional Program – International Development Association – IDA
Resource Mobilization Department (CFPIR) – October 2009
33 IIRSA –Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America; Indicative Territorial
Planning, Project Pori folio 2009
34 IIRSA – Building a common future
35 IIRSA – Building a New Continent; Projer:t Information Sheets – Priority Investment Portfolio in South
America
36a Flyer: MesoAmerica Electricity Integration
.
36b Flyer: Proyecto Integracion y Desarollo Me ;oAmerica
36b Flyer: Procedimiento MesoAmericano Para El Transita Internacional de Mercancias (TIM)

INCEPTION REPORT
36d Flyer: Proyecto Integracion y Dessarrollo MesoAmeriac Acceleracion Del Corredor Pacifico
37 Presentation: "Physical Integration of South America – Achievements and Progress of IIRSA"
38 AU-ECA Meeting Africa's development challenge in the 21 century - 2008
39 IMF Regional Economic Outlook Africa April 2010 - Back to high growth
40 IMF World Economic Outlook 2010 - Rebalancing growth
41 OECD African Economic Outlook 2010 - Macroeconomic development in Africa to 2010
42 World Bank Financial commitments for infrastructure in Africa for 2008
43 CEPED Croissance urbaine en Afrique 2009
44 OCDE Les dynamiques démographiques en Afrique de l'Ouest 2007
45 WB Evaluation of capacity development, 2006
46 Debt Relief International - Macroeconomic financing key issues, 1999
47 Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, Macroeconomic effects of public investment in
infrastructure in India, 2006
48 WB The cost of attaining the MDGs
49 AU-ECA Economic Report Africa 2010 - Promoting growth

INCEPTION REPORT
ENERGY SECTOR
LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR – PIDA Study
AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental
1 Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa-
2010 (Main and Final Technical Report)
The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion
2
Papers and Reports
4 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports
6
2010
7 African Development Bank (ADB) : Review of Regional Operations Draft – May 2010
8 Proposal for Clean Energy Investment Framework for Africa
9a •Power Sector Review
9b •Power Spending Needs
9c •Unit Costs of Infrastructure
CAREC- Central Asia Economic Cooperation – Energy Action Plan Framework – Good
10
Neighbors Good Partners. Good Prospect, – October 2009
Agence Française de Développement et Banque Africaine de Développement ; L’ENERGIE
11 EN AFRIQUE A L’HORIZON 2050 ; Etude conduite sous la direction de Jean-Pierre
Favennec ; décembre 2009 ; 84 pages.
Energy sector in the Mediterranean region, situation and prospective 2025; UNEP-MAP,
12
Plan Bleu, AFD, November 2009
Energy prospects in the Mediterranean region up to 2020 ; OME (Observatoire
13
Méditerranéen de l'Energie) ;
14 Plan Bleu, October 2006
15 The World Bank Group; Energy Strategy Approach Paper; October 2009
16 Continental Policy on Electricity, AUC, 2008
17 Integrated African Energy Vision 2035, AUC, ECA & UNIDO, 2009
18 ADB GROUP REGIONAL INTEGRATION STRATEGY, 2009-2012; February 2009

ADB ; FONDS SPÉCIAL DU MÉCANISME DE FINANCEMENT DE LA PRÉPARATION DES
19 PROJETS D’INFRASTRUCTURE DU NEPAD (Fonds spécial IPPF-NEPAD) DIRECTIVES
OPÉRATIONNELLES Octobre 2006
AFREC ; Rapport sur l’atelier international portant sur le lancement de la mise en place du
20
Système d’Information Energétique Africain ; 2005
ICA; Power Supply situation in Africa; Infrastructure Consortium for Africa; Annual Meeting,
21
13-14 March 2008
INCEPTION REPORT
UNEP-UNECA; Making Africa’s Power Sector Sustainable; An Analysis of Power Sector
22
Reforms in Africa; 2007
UA-ADB; LE PLAN D’ACTION POUR L’AFRIQUE DE L’UA/NEPAD 2010-2015: Promouvoir
23
l’intégration régionale et continentale en Afrique ; Les secteurs ; 2009
UNDP; Energy in National Decentralization Policies; A review focusing on Least Developed
24
Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa; 2009
25 OECD-IEA; G8 Energy Ministers Meeting; IEA presentation ‘Energy poverty’; 2009
The World Bank Development Research Group Environment and Energy Team; The
26
Economics of Renewable Energy Expansion in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa; January 2010

INCEPTION REPORT
TRANSPORT SECTOR
LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR – PIDA Study
Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV – Enhancing Intra-African Trade, - ECA, AU, ADB
3
Report- May 2010
Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformaion, (Hard copy & electronic CD) – 2010; The
3
World Bank
6 4.WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14)
7a •Air Transport Review
7b •Railway Sector Review
7c •Ports Review
7d •Transport Spending Needs
7e •Unit Costs of Infrastructure
7f •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008
7g •Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A rev ew of the main International Corridors;
SSATP Working Paper No,89- A Framework for a pro-growth, Pro-poor Transport Strategy,
8
Tesfamichaei Nahusenay Mitiku
SSATP Working Paper No. 86 – Institutional Arrangements for Transport Corridor
9 Management in Sub- Saharan Africa; Yao Adzigbey, Charles Kunaka, Tesfamichel
Nahusenay Mitiku
SSATP- Second Development Plan 2008 – 2011 – Fostering Sound Policies and Strategies
10
for the Provision of Reliable, Safe, Efficient and Affordable Transport, October 2007
IDA 15 Mid-Term Review of the IDA Regional Program – International Development
11
Association – IDA Resource Mobilization Department (CFPIR) – October 2009
12 Assessing Regional Integration in Africa volume 1, 2 and 3 by ECA and AU
13 Economic report on Africa 2009 and 2010 ECA and AU
14 Regional Economic Programme 2006-2010 (UEMOA)
15 Road network upgrading and overland trade expension in Sub Saharan Africa World Bank
16 Developpement du reseau consensuel de l'Afrique Centrale by ECA
17 World Bank SSATP Gazing into the mirror Operational internal control in Cameroon Customs

INCEPTION REPORT
18 World Bank SSATP The Chirundu Border post
TWRM SECTOR
LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE TWR SECTOR – PIDA Study
The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion
2
Papers and Reports
4 "African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2010
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Second Review of Implementation Progress and
7
Way Forward – Continental Synthesis Report 2004
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports
8
2010
9 AfDB, 2000: Policy for Integrated Water Resources
Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformation, (Hard copy & electronic CD) – 2010; The
10
World Bank
13 WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14)

14a •Irrigation Sector Review
14b •Water Sector Review
14c •Sanitation Sector Review
14d •Irrigation Spending Needs
15 AICD Working Papers
15a •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008

•Cost Recovery, Equity and Efficiency in Water Tariffs: Evidence from African Utilities; -
15b Sudeshua Banerjee, Vivien Forster, Yvonne Ying, Heather Skilling and Quetin Wodon – May
2008
•Provision of Water to the Poor in Africa. Experience with Water Standpost and Informai
15c
Sector: Sarah Keener, Manuel Luengo, and Sudeshna Banerjee, April 2009

INCEPTION REPORT
15d •Water Reforms in Senegal: A Regional cnd Interpersonal Distribution Impact Analysis
AfDB, 2005 : The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI), Launching
16
Documents.
AfDB, AWF, 2004: Instrument for the Establishment of the Africa Water Facility Special Fund
17
(Administered by the AfDB)
18 AMCOW Bulletins
AMCOW, 2002 : Statement of African Ministerial Conference on Water at the World Summit
19
on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South
AMCOW, 2002: The Abuja Ministerial Declaration on Water - a key to Sustainable
20
Development in Africa.
AMCOW, 2006 : Conference of African River and Lake Basin Organization, Conference
21
Outcomes and Action Plan.
AU , 2008 : Sharm El-Sheikh Commitments for Accelerating the Achievement of Water and
22
Sanitation Goals in Africa.
AU, 2007 : Guidelines for establishing a cooperative framework agreement for the integrated
23
management of Transboundary basins.
24 AU, ECA, AfDB, 2000: Africa Water Vision 2025
25 AWF Project sheets and flyers

AWF, 2005: Operational Strategy, Operational Programm, Operational Procedurese 2005-
26
2009
27 AWF, 2006: AWF Communications strategy
AWF, 2010: AWF Operational Effectiveness Assessment. Discussions and Findings Report.
28
Stakeholders Workshop April 26 -27, 2010 Pretoria, South Africa.
29 AWF, AfDB, 2009 : PIDA Transboundary Water Resources Study, Appraisal Report
AWF, WOUDENEH T., 2010: Effectiveness Assessment of the African Water Facility (AWF)
30
Stakeholders Workshop April 26 -27, 2010 Pretoria, South Africa.
31 Declaration of Johannesburg on water for development and the fight against poverty.
32 EC, 2002 : The EU Water Initiative Launching documents
33 ESA, 2005 : TIGER Strategic Document for Africa 2000-2015.
34 ESA, 2006 : The TIGER Initiative Implementation Plan 2005-2007, Revision 2006.
35 FAO – AQUASTAT: Several publications and databases on Irrigation in Africa (FAO website)
GWP, UNDP, 2005 : L’Intiative Canadienne (PAWD), Programme for Water Development in
36
Africa .

INCEPTION REPORT
37 MDG Task Force on Environmental Sustainability : Reports
38 MDG Task Force on Water and Sanitation : Reports
39 Ministerial Declaration of the First African Water Week 2008.
40 Ministerial Declaration of the Hague Conference on Water security in the 21st Century.
41 MLSTF, 2007: Water Sector,, Part I, Discussion Paper

Personal library on tranboundary water resources management, river basin management,
42
dams
43 Several specific documents related to the selected Lake and River Basins
Sirte Declaration on the challenges of implementing integrated and sustainable development
44
on agriculture and water in Africa.
Task force reports on Water and sanition of the UN Millenium Project (unmilleniumproject
45
website
UN-Water/Africa & AMCOW, 2004 : Outcomes and Recommendations of the Pan African
46
Implementation and Partnership Conference.
UNECA, 2000 : African Water Development Report, Transboundary River/ Lake Basin Water
47
Development in Africa: Prospects, Problems and Achievements.
48 UNECA, 2001 : State of the Environment in Africa.
UNEP 2002 : Africa Environment Outlook – Past present and Future perspectives (UNEP
49
website)
World Commission on Dams, 2000 : Dams and Development – A new framework for
50
decision making.
AfDB, 2005 : The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI), Launching
51
Documents.

INCEPTION REPORT
ICT SECTOR
LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE ICT SECTOR – PIDA Study
1 ADB- Africa Infrastructure Maps (Roads, Railway, Electricity, Optical Fibre)
2 ADB: Bank Group's Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Operations Strategy –
Revised Version –ADF/BD/WP/2008/74/Rev.1 03 October 2008
3a •ICT Sector Review
3b •ICT Investment Needs
4 Presentation: "Physical Integration of South America – Achievements and Progress of IIRSA"
5 Africa Analysis – Telecom – IT. Media – I'roject: Feasibility Study for the Terrestrial Segment
of the NEPAD ICT Broadband Infrastructure Network for Eastern and Southern Africa –
Issued tu : Brion Cheesman- NEPAD e-Commission
6 Harmonized ICT Policies in ACP countries HIPPSA

7 Perspectives économiques en Afrique © BAfD/OCDE 2009
8 STUDY ON HARMONISATION OF TELECOMMUNICATION,INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGIES UA 2008
9 Appui à l'harmonisation des politiques relatives aux TIC en Afrique subsaharienne Stratégie
de mise en œuvre Sandro Bazzanella
10 Harmonisation réglementaire des TIC Étude comparée des initiatives régionales
11 Union Internationale des télécommunications Rapport final and Cartes des réseaux par pays
Rapport sur les infrastructures des Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication en
Afrique Centrale, Ouest et Nord 2005
12 TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT MARKETS AND TRENDS IN AFRICA ITU 2007
13 ICT in Africa: Boosting Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction InfoDev 2008
14 2006 Information and Communications for Development WB
15
African ICT Week (AICTW) Concept Paper UA Nov 2009
16
ITU-D Information Society Statistical Profiles 2009 Africa
17 WB 2009 Extending Reach and increasing Impact
18 WB 2009 Broadband for Africa M D Williams
19 (2009)PROGRESS REPORT ON THE SINGLE EUROPEAN ELECTRONIC

COMMUNICATIONS MARKET (14th REPORT) Vol 1 + 2 and annex
20 ITU Data Africa 2007

INCEPTION REPORT
21 AICD Information and Communications Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Sector Review
2009
22 AICD Connecting the Continent: Costing the Needs for Spending on ICT Infrastructure in
Africa 2009
23 AICD Information and Communication Technologies: A Boost for Growth 2009
24 The Opportunities and Challenges of the East African Submarine Cable System (EASsy)
Dawit Bekele Internet Society
25
Highlights of the Internet for Africa meeting, Montpellier 10-12 Dec 2007
26
Internet Connectivity in Africa Montpellier 10-12 Dec 2007
27 Internet Exchange Points: A Business & Policy Perspective AFIX Decision-makers’
Workshop
28 Information Communications Technologies and Regional Integration: Africa and South
America; Information Communications Technologies and Regional Integration
29
ICT for Development and the MDGs
30
Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Africa UA 2008

INCEPTION REPORT
ANNEXE 2
List of people met

LIST OF PEOPLE MET
Cross Sector
Name Position Institution

ADB- NEPAD, Regional
Rugamba (Mr) Alex Director Integration and Trade
Department- ONRI-ADB
Oumarou (Mr) Amadou Division Manager Integration and Trade
Chirwa Mtchera Jhonson (Mr) Principal PPP Infrastructure Specialist Integration and Trade
Ajijo Micah Olaseni (Mr) Consultant- PIDA Study Coodinator Integration and Trade
ADB- African Water
Besong Raymonde (Mr) Civil Engineer Consultant Facility Department- AfW-
ADB
ADB- Infrastracture
Diallo (Mr) Amadou Thierno Division Manager Department- Energy & ICT
Division- OINF
Fernands Cardy (Mr) Peter Infrastructure Expert Integration and Trade
Moulot (Mr) Jacques Chief Energy Expert Integration and Trade
ADB- Infrastracture
Salieu (Mr) Jack ICT Enginner Department- Energy & ICT
Division- OINF
Wada (Mr) Momoko Institutional/ Financial Expert African Development Bank
ADB- African Water
Woudeneh (Mr) Tefera Chief Water Expert Facility Department- AfW-
ADB
WB- Sustainable
Beides Hussam (Mr) Senior Energy Specialist Development Unit Middle
East & North Africa Region
WB- SDNVP- Finance,
Delmon Jeff (Mr)
Senior Infrastructure Specialist Economics & Urban
Dominguez Torres Carolina (Ms) Consultant, AICD WSS, World Bank AICD WSS, World Bank
WB- Global ICT
Dongier Philippe (Mr) Sector Manager
Department
WB- Sustainable
Development Department
Frederico Barra Alvaro (Mr)
GIS Analyst Middle East & North Africa
Region
WB-Policy Division-
Global Information &
Guermazi Boutheina (Ms) Sr. Regulatory Specialist
Communication
Technologies
Heather Worley (Ms) Communication Officer The World Bank
WB-Urban & Water-
K. Ahmad Junaid (Mr) Sector Manager
African Region
WB-SSATP Regional
Kabanguka Jean Kizito (Mr) Senior Transportation Specialist Coordinator Eastern and
Southern Africa
WB-Global Information &
Communication
Kimura Kaoru (Mr) Operations Analyst
Technologies Policy
Division
WB- Sustainable
Development Department
Laszlo Lovei (Mr) Director
Middle East & North Africa
Region
PPIAF- Sub-National
Leigland James (Mr) Program Leader
Technical Assistance
IFC-Global Information &
Leydier Stephanie (Ms) Senior Investment Officer Communication
Technologies Department
WB- Sustainable
Luis Irigoyen Jose (Mr) Senior Manager Development Department
- Africa Region
M. Ghzala Abdelmoula (Mr) Lead Infrastructure Specialist WB-Mena Region
IFC-Global Information &
Muente- Kunigami Arturo (Mr) ICT Policy Specialist Communication
Technologies
WB- Development
Murray Siobhan (Mr) Economics Research
GIS Analyst
Group
WB- Regional Integration-
Scobey Richard (Mr) Acting Director
Africa Region
WB-Global Information &
Silarszky Peter (Mr) Senior Economist Communication
Technologies
Tjaarda P. Storm Van Leeuwen (Mr) Adviser Africa Energy Group
WB- Sub-Saharan Africa
Vincent Stephen (Mr) SSATP Program Manager
Transport Policy Program
WB- Global ICT
Williams Mark (Mr) Senior Economist
Department
TWR Sector
Name Position and Institution

Tefera Woudeneh Officer in Charge, African Water Facility, AfDB
Raymonde Besong African Water Facility, AfDB
Mekuria Tafesse Consultant, Member of the PIDA Panel of
Experts
Carolina Dominguez Consultant, AICD WSS, World Bank
Torres
Alfredo Federico GIS analyst, Sustainable Development Africa
Barra Region, World Bank
Tjaarda P. Storm Van Adviser, Africa Energy Group
Leeuwen
Brian Blankespoor Spatial Analysis Expert, Development
Economics Research Group, World Bank
Ashok K. Sector Manager WRM Africa Region
Subramanian,
Amal Talbi Water Resources Management Africa Region,
World bank
Eileen Burke Water Resources Management Africa Region,
World bank
Varadan Atur Water Resources Management Africa Region,
World bank
Barbara A. Miller Lead Water Resources Specialist, Nile
Program Coordinator, World Bank
François Onimus Sr. Irrigation and Water manag. Specialist,
Africa Region
Rimma Dankova Africa Water Resources Management
(AFTWR), World Bank
Junaid K. Ahmad Sector Manager, Urban and Water, Africa
Region
Liangzhi You Senior Scientist. Environment and Production
Technology Division. IFPRI, Washington
Stathis Dalamangas Head of Water sector . Quality Support to
Operations. EuropeAid Co-operation office.
ICT Sector
Name Position and Institution

Amadou Diallo Energy and ICT, AfDB
Jack Salieu Chief information and communications
Technology, AfDB
Mark Williams Senior economist Global ICT Department WB
Philippe Dongier Sector manager , Global ICT Department WB
Siobhan Murray GIS Analyst, WB
Laurent Besancon Senior economist Global ICT Department WB
Boutheima Guermazi Senior regulatory specialist Policy division Global
ICT WB
Peter Silarsky Senior economist Global ICT WB
Michael Minges Senior Market analyst TMC
Stéphanie Leydier Senior investment officer IFC
Vincent Teissier Europe and Africa Manager Cogentcom (IP
operator)
Yann Burtin Senior operation Manager Global ICT WB
Remi Kekete Lawyer Gide Loyrette
Hippsa programme
Jean François Project Manager – project manager HIPPSA ITU-
LeBihan* EC Project
Sandro Bazzanella* Project Manager - Directeur de Projet HIPPSA
ITU-EC Project
Harry DeBaker* EU Delegation to the African Union
Bob Fletcher Renesys Senior Director Internet data service
Frederic Saillet Alcatel-Lucent Responsable zone Afrique
François Malterre Interoute Africa (IP operator)
Carlo Stefanini* Ericsson Responsable zone Afrique
* Phone contact
Transport
Name Position Institution

Anthony Edy Organisation du Corridor Abidjan-
Transport Expert
Kokouvi (Mr) Lagos
Athman Mohamed
Consultant Customs ICT Trade Mark -East Africa
(Mr)
Chetima Tejani (Mr) Economic Affairs Officer UNECA
Horne-Ferreira Maputo Corridor Logistics Initiative-
Cheif Executive Officer
Brenda (Ms) MCLI
Kilonzo Mutuelle Lamu Port- Lapsset Corridor
Senior AdVISOR
(Dr) Development- Ministry of Transport
Kioroniny Patrice Commission Internationale Du Bassin
Expert Pricipal
Alain Hugues (Mr) Congo- Oubangui- Sangha-CICOS-
Road Safety Coordinator,
Kwamusi Paul (Mr) FIA Foundation
Africa
Mwanyumba Port Management Association of
Project Development Officer
Jemimag (Ms) Eastern & Southern Africa
Onyango Omoke Port Management Association of
Port Statistics Officer
Isaac (Mr) Eastern & Southern Africa
Ouaedraogo Jean Sub-Saharan Africa Transport, Policy
Officer of the
Bertin (Mr) Program (SSATP)
Simuyemba Shem Senior Transsit & Trade
USAID Compte program
(Mr) Facilitation Advisor
Tumwebaze Hunter Secretariat Permanent de l'Autorite de
Programme Mannager
Fred (Mr) Coordination du Transport de Transit
Wenk Yko Sakashit NEPAD Infrastructure
DBSA
(Mr) Advisor
Energy
Name Position
Alex RUGAMBA Director, ONRI
Amadou OUMAROU Division Manager, ONRI .1
Hela CHEIKHROUHOU Director Energy, Environment and Climate Change
Micah AJIJO Consultant, PIDA Study Coordinator, ONRI 1
Jacques MOULOT Chief Energy Expert, ONRI.1
Roger GAILLARD Lead Energy specialist, ONEC.1
E.B NZABANIIA O/C ONEC-2
E. NEGASH Power Engineer ONEC-2
V. ZONGO Financial analyst ONEC-1
Kurt LONSWAY Manager ONEC-3
Peter FERNANDEZ DFID
Johannes CHIRWA Principal PPP Infrastructure Specialist
PRATFUL PATEL Consultant, Leader of the PIDA Panel of Experts
Guy DARLAN Consultant, Member of the PIDA Panel of Experts
Tafesse MEKURIA Consultant, Member of the PIDA Panel of Experts
Jonathan WALTERS Sector Manager Transport and Energy MENA, World Bank
INCEPTION REPORT
ANNEXE 3
List of Team members and
Expertise

LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Togo
Niger
Jean- PhD Economics  More than 35 years of experience in development economics, Mali
Programme including 27 years at the World Bank, mainly in the design and English: VG
François 32 65 Mining Engineering CEMAC
Leader implementation of adjustment and investment projects, French : VG
BAUER graduate WAEMU
primarily in infrastructure Gabon
Guinea
Algeria
Institutional Burundi
Etienne and
Postgraduate degree in  Over 25 years’ experience in development economics and Rwanda English: VG
31 61 business administration public finance planning and budgeting in transition and
SOLTESZ development DR Congo French : VG
Master of Economics developing countries.
economist Benin
Gabon
Tunisia
Algeria
Post-doctorate in Integrated
Jacques Environnemen
44 71 Environmental Management  21 years of experience in the field of environmental and social Morocco English: VG
FRANSENN tal Expert management of development projects in Africa DR Congo French : VG
Doctorate in Biology
Guinea
Cameroon
Gabon
Postgraduate studies
Central African
Olivier
Legal advisor 20 45
diploma in International  Over 15 years of professional experience as a legal expert in Republic
English: VG
D’AUZON Transport and Distribution the infrastructure and transport sector French : VG
Algeria
MA in Contract Law
Nigeria
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Jean-Pierre Infrastructure
42 71
Master of Science in  39 years of experience as economist, especially in the Mali English: VG
DIEHL economist Operations Research infrastructure and transport sector Mauritania French : VG
Egypt
Mozambique
Ph.D. in Political Science  In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of Project Cycle South Africa
Specialisation: Economic Management Monitoring & Evaluation, and Logical Framework Burkina Faso
Patrick Monitoring Development methodology. Egypt English: VG
33 59
FUSILIER expert DEA (Advanced  Great experience of monitoring methods and tools: has carried Tunisia French : VG
postgraduate studies out numerous monitoring missions, as well as mid-term and DR Congo
diploma) in socio-economics final evaluations.
SOFRECO Led Consortium 1

LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
Gabon
PhD: Economy & Congo
management Morocco
Eliot Project finance (Finance/Marketing)  Infrastructure & equipment planning / investment: Cameroon, English: VG
35 61 Identification, appraisal ToR/tender documents & feasibility
SIMPSON expert MSc: Business Equatorial French : VG
administration studies, implementation, post-evaluation Guinea
(Accounting/Finance/Audit) Togo
Central Africa
Botswana
M.B.A., Finance & Zambia
Scott Investments  More than 28 years experience as an investment banker, Malawi English: VG
PPP expert 23 48 senior manager, financial analyst, PPP consultant and utility
JAZYNKA B.B.A., International South Africa French : G
Business regulator in developed and developing countries Egypt
Nigeria
Chad
DESS (specialised
postgraduate studies  Considerable experience of Environmental and Social Impact RD Congo
Laurence Assessment (infrastructures, facilities, roads), Social Burkina Faso English: VG
Social expert 37 60 diploma) in Political Science
WILHELM Management Plan; Involuntary resettlement Plan, Cameroon French : VG
Graduate of IUED (MSc
Compensation measures. Mali
Sociology & Anthropology)
Ethiopia
Customs inspector Algeria
qualification Tunisia
Trade/ Uniformed customs officer  Solid international experience: held an appointment for 6 years Central African
Alain at the World Customs Organization in Brussels; since 1993 English: VG
customs 32 63 qualification Republic
LESAFFRE has conducted dozens of consultancy and training missions in French : VG
expert Bachelor of Law (validated Mali
after getting into the National developing and transition countries. Burkina Faso
School of Customs in 1973) Senegal
 for over 20 years in transport and logistics improvements, Namibia

Lynn Corridors private sector participation in infrastructure, and institutional Angola English: G
35 67 B.A. Government
HARMON expert strengthening for regional integration and trade facilitation in Botswana French : VG
Africa, the South Balkans, Central America and Asia. Malawi
Pierre-Yves Multimodal
 Transport economist, freight forwarding business, with 35 Burkina Faso English: VG
34 61 MBA years of professional experience.
BEZY expert Tunisia French : VG
 Specific expertise in multimodal transport/maritime transport

LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
CONTRACTING CONTRACTING CONTRACTING

IN PROGRESS GIS CONTRACTING IN PROGRESS  CONTRACTING IN PROGRESS IN PROGRESS IN PROGRESS
Francisco Macro
Ph.D. Economics  Very good practical experience in Designing and running Morocco
English: VG
16 41 MBA in Applied macroeconomic models as well as Macroeconomic and fiscal Burkina Faso
SERRANITO Economist French : VG
Econometrics diagnostics and analysis in transition economies. Senegal






LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
DR Congo
Morocco
Egypt
Tunisia
PhD Business and  Over 35 years experience in the energy sector Uganda English: VG
Ananda M.
COVINDASSAMY
Leader energy 38 65
Economics  Over 15 years of experience in the preparation and Mozambique French : VG
assessment of energy strategies and policies. Benin
Côte d’Ivoire
Cameroon
Togo
 Quality Assessment: evaluation of development impact of
projects and policy based operations with emphasis on
Tanzania
Eugene Strategy infrastructure; English: VG
41 68 Ph.D. Organic geochemistry Uganda
McArthy energy  Vast Experience in the Energy sector: policy formulation, Mozambique
French : VG
institutional appraisal, privatization and environmental
mitigation in developing countries.
Gabon
Ivory Coast
Algeria
Idir Program PhD Development  33 years of experience in the energy sector, gained in an Cameroon English: G
36 60 African national electricity company, then as a energy
KENDEL energy Economics Niger French : VG
economist working as consultant in various countries. Morocco
Mauritania
Senegal
Gabon
Donald Ian Energy Ph.D, Natural Resources  Senior economist specialised in simulation and projection work Ivory Coast English: VG
35 32 in the Energy Sector, and more precisely across Africa
HERTZMARK Projection Economics Uganda French : G
 30 years of experience in energy economics and modelling Tanzania


LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
Ghana
Algeria
PhD in Transport  Over 35 years of experience in the field of Transport of which Gabon
Bernard Leader Communications over 30 years in developing and transition countries, gained in DR Congo English: VG
43 70
CHATELIN transport Economy various contexts (Private sector, United Nations and World Egypt French : VG
BA in economics Bank funded projects), mainly in African countries. Tunisia
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Togo
Mali
MA in Political Economy  30 years of experience with the World Bank in the transport Chad
Alain Strategy sector, dealing with policy issues assessment, strategy English: VG
BALLEREAU
39 67 PhD in Development Gabon
transport development, and complex national investment programs and French : VG
Economics Ivory Coast
plans. RD Congo
Tanzania
Vesselin Prg road

PhD in Geography,  16 years of experience in the transport sector, mainly in the Tunisia
English VG
SIAROV
16 45 speciality “Spatial road sector both goods and passenger markets. He has French VG
transport Morocco
Planning and Transport” extensive experience of Mediterranean issues.
Congo,
Gabon,
Xavier Prg rail
41 65
MA in Engineering  Over 40 years of professional experience, gained in various Tunisia English G
NOUGUES transport Maritime school countries especially in Africa, in the field of railways. Algeria French VG
Senegal
Morocco
Angola
Yves LE Prg sea
Ph. D. in maritime  Over 35 years of professional experience, gained in various Guinea English: G
GLOANNEC transport
37 66 transport countries, mostly in Africa, of maritime, port management and French : VG
Algeria
MBA inland water studies. Gabon
Senegal
Gilbert Master of Airport  In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of all of fields of Cameroon
Prg air civil aviation: after technical positions, specialised in airport Zambia English: VG
Edouard 40 65 Management
transport management, airport master plan development and the DR Congo French : VG
BILLIEZ Civil aviation Engineer
restructuring of civil aviation administration Niger

LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
Ph.D. in Agricultural
Engineering (Irrigation  Integrated water resources management and transboundary
and Water Resources Morocco
river basin management specialist with 30 years of Senegal
Olivier Management) international experience in over 25 countries worldwide. Focus English: VG
Leader TWR 34 59 Egypt
COGELS M.Sc. in Agricultural on policies, strategies, programmes and projects, institutions, French : VG
Mauritania
Engineering (Irrigation and international cooperation for the management of Burundi
and Agricultural Water transboundary water resources.
Management)
Niger
Morocco
 More than 15 years of professional experience in Integrated Mauritania
Ph.D. in Applied Geology Water Resources Management issues. Institutional Mali
Michel strengthening of water management at international and English: VG
SOULIE
Strategy water 38 64 Master of Sciences in Guinea
national level: promoting institutional reforms, developing French : VG
Geology Nigeria
sustainable water environmental policy, improving water law Chad, Cameroon
and regulatory framework Botswana
Zimbabwe
PhD in Agricultural South Africa,
Amaury Prg hydro

Engineering (Water  Strong experience of integrated water resources management Mozambique
Swaziland English: VG
TILMANT water
14 38 Resources Management) and transboundary river basin management.
French : VG
Zambia
MSc Agricultural  Good knowledge of the PPPs Challenges Sudan
Engineering Ethiopia
PhD in Earth Sciences
and Hydrogeology  Specialist in the implementation of water resources Projects Malawi
Jacques Prg ground Africa, Latin America, Far and Middle East, Indian Sub Algeria English: VG
MARCHAND
37 65 Advanced postgraduate
water Continent, Central Asia with over 35 years of experience in Gabon French : VG
studies diploma in Nigeria
managerial and technical roles.
Groundwater
Malawi,
Malcolm T. Prg supply  35 years of experience working on Water planning and Mozambique
English: VG
SUMMERFIELD
37 66 M.Sc. Economics feasibility studies in Africa, Asia, Middle East, Eastern and Nigeria
water French : VG
Central Europe, Europe, Central & South America. Tanzania
Ivory Coast

LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
 Full career as irrigation engineer and hydraulics expert.

Mali
Master in Science,  Large experience in land planning projects Morocco
agronomist engineer in  Designer of large and medium irrigation schemes, including
Olivier Prg. Irrig. English: VG
30 57 Algeria
DEMEURE Water intake structures, sand trapping structures, weirs, Neyrtec French : VG
rural infrastructure Niger
flumes, pumping stations, furrow irrigation, flood irrigation, Cameroon
sprinkler and drip irrigation, etc
Senegal
 Over 30 years of professional experience in the water sector, Algeria
Romain BSc Town and Rural gained both in Belgium and abroad, mainly in African countries English: VG
Model water 35 61 Morocco
SOENEN Planning  In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of long term Burkina Faso
French : VG
simulation and projection work in the water sector Togo





LIST OF STAFF
PIDA Study
Languages
Experience in
country
G, W)
 30 years experience in ICT Gabon

Claude DE  Extensive experience of technical aspects of telecom operator DR Congo
English: G
JACQUELOT
Leader ICT 33 59 Telecom Engineer degree infrastructures (Extensive experience in strategic development Senegal
French : VG
& Network planning, SDH/DWDM , Switching, Access Tunisia
(ADSL,..) networks Morocco
Senegal
 More than 20 years experience in design, evaluation, training, Ghana
strategy development, market assessments and Liberia
Michael R Strategy MSc, Resource implementation of electronic communications media – Morocco English: VG
27 52
JENSEN Expert Development telecommunications, mobile, Internet and computer-based South Africa French : G
information networks for governments, development agencies Nigeria
and the private sector from 1984 to present. Cameroon,
Senegal
Ivory Coast
 Over 17 years of working experience in ICT as a consultant Kenya
and project manager in Africa
Gilles Programme South Africa English: VG
CHAPUIS Expert
32 58 Engineering Degree ICPI  Extensive experience of telecommunications projects and Tanzania French : VG
implementation of Telecom Network in Africa, including Ethiopia
planning, implementation, review and evaluation Djibouti
Nigeria
Botswana
Andre Projection BSc Chemical  More than 20 years in telecommunications projects that have Lesotho
English: VG
23 48 required both a telecommunications strategic and business South Africa
WILLS Expert Engineering French : F
analysis in various countries in Africa Tanzania
Namibia

INCEPTION REPORT
ANNEXE 4
Specific Sector Annexes

ANNEXE 4
Specific Sector Annexes
ENERGY
Annex A Country Score Card
Annex B REC Score Card
Annex C Inventory of Regional Projects
Annex D Outline of Energy Sector Strategic Framework
Annex E Methodology for preparing the Outline of Strategic Framework
Annex F Statistical Tables

Annex A
Country Score Card
Country Name:
Number of households
Finance National Creditworthiness
Sovereign credit rating
Sovereign bond terms and rating
Power System description
Power installed capacity
Power available capacity
Length of >110 kV network
Capacity of interconnections
Power availability
Energy generation
Energy consumption
Energy imports(+)/Exports (-)
Commercial and planning
Commercial & non commercial losses
Bill collection rate
Average Tariff (USCents/kWh)
Residential Tariff
National Development Plan?
LRMC
Access rate 2009
Access rate 2020
Access rate 2040
Institutional
Monopolistic generation by law?
Monopolistic distribution by law?
Separate Regulator?
IPPs?

Market
Monopolistic, single buyer, competitive
Long term contracts?
Utility
Cash flow on operations
% cash flow/revenues
Overall country business climate assessment

Annex B
REC Score Card
REC name
Energy trade within the region
Energy export outside of the region
Managing a competitive regional market
REC strategic objectives
- lowering energy cost
- accelerating access
- poverty reduction
- support to PPP
- ……
Existence of a regional water management mechanism
REC Long Term Development Plan
REC Long Term Transmission plan
Coordination mechanism REC/national plans
REC dispatch center
REC technical standards

Annex C Inventory
of Regional
Projects
1 PURPOSE AND STATUS OF THE PROJECT
1.1 MOTIVATIONS/OBJECTIVES FOR DEVELOPING THE PROJECT
1.2 THE TRADE OR OFF-TAKE SOLUTION PUT IN PLACE
1.3 PROGRESS AGAINST TARGETS TO DATE
2 Regional Economic Context .......................................................................................
2.1 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONTEXT, RANKING CRITERIA USED FOR

INVESTMENT DECISION (PLACE IN SECTOR LONG TERM PLAN) ..........................
2.2 REGIONAL SUPPLY CONTEXT
2.3 REGIONAL DEMAND CONTEXT
2.4 ENERGY TARIFFS IN PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES
3 History of Scheme ........................................................................................................
3.1 OVERVIEW INCLUDING TIMELINE/CHRONOLOGY

3.2 PROJECT CONCEPT, OBJECTIVES, AND DEVELOPMENT
3.3 PREPARATORY AND FEASIBILITY STUDIES DONE
3.4 ASSETS BUILT
3.5 CONTRIBUTION TO INTERCONNECTIONS AND ENERGY TRADE
3.6 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES
4 Institutional Arrangements ..........................................................................................
4.1 WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE ORGANIZATION TO GOVERN OR

IMPLEMENT THE SCHEME?
4.2 ROLE OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AND REGIONAL INSTITUTIONS
4.3 ROLE OF REGULATORY AGENCIES

4.4 ROLE OF OUTSIDE AGENCIES

5 Contractual, Financial and Pricing Arrangements .....................................................
5.1 CONTRACTS STRUCTURE

5.2 OWNERSHIP AND FINANCE
5.3 PRICING ARRANGEMENTS

Annex D
Outline of Energy
Sector Strategic
Framework
1- General Continental Energy Sector Vision/overview
2- World outlooks and change in the energy sector strategic context relevant to the African
Continent and to each REC
3- Stock-taking of NEPAD (STAP) and REC achievements and operational challenges in

the energy sector
4- How to better serve Africa? AU/NEPAD/REC comparative advantage
5- Strategic Objectives and areas of focus

a. Energy for the poor:
b. Adaptation and contribution of Africa to climate change
c. Promoting technological options suitable for Africa
d. Promoting a multi-sector vision of energy at the continental and regional levels
(with transport, water, IT…)
e. ………
6- Continental and regional implications: differentiating priorities by region
7- Implementing the Strategy: proposing a business plan for the energy sector
a. Outcomes
b. Outputs for Strategic Framework for the continent and by region and lines of
business
c. Inputs and resources deployment/adaptation
i. Staffing resources
ii. Dealing with the cost of implementation of the proposed Strategy…
iii. ….
8- M&E framework
a. Monitoring criteria at the continental and regional levels
b. Evaluation system
c. Expected results

Annexe E:
Methodology for
preparing the
Outline of Strategic
Framework
1. Strategic relevance, including articulating a clear continental sector vision and strategy
in the context of global and regional trends and the AU/NEPAD/REC mandate.
(a) Sector vision and proposing specific goals.
(b) Relevance to global development challenges at sector continental and regional levels
(c) Investment issues and considerations
(d) Links to poverty reduction.
(e) Links to other sectors (transport, water and IT in particular).
Check list for strategic relevance:

Global world energy trends/challenges discussed
Continental and Regional energy sector trends/challenges discussed
Link to RECs’ agreements/conventions and international treaties on energy
Link between energy and poverty reduction established
Supporting data on links between energy (access and oil revenues management) and
poverty reduction
Inter-sector links discussed
Role of NEPAD and RECs discussed
2. Analytic Quality, including justifying AU/NEPAD/REC’s involvement in areas of the

energy sector where public action is warranted and in terms of comparative advantage of
NEPAD. AU, RECs.
(a) Rationale for regional institutions intervention.
(b) Rationale for AU/NEPAD/REC involvement
(c) REC/AU/NEPAD policy framework and past performance in the energy sector (Tasks
1.1.1, 1.1.2 and
1.1.3)
Check list for Analytic quality

Rationale for public action discussed
Rationale for AU/NEPAD/REC action discussed

Comparative advantage of NEPAD involvement assessed

Adequacy of NEPAD energy policy framework to support MLTSF
Policy gaps to support Strategic Framework implementation identified
NEPAD and RECs’ sector performance evaluated and lessons incorporated
NEPAD and REC’s project portfolio analyzed
3. Business focus including guidance to RECs on priorities, and energy planning

methodology
(a) Instruments. The Strategic Framework should present the range of recommended
energy planning, project screening and policy evaluation instruments available to the
AU/NEPAD/RECs. It should assess which instruments have worked better, under what
circumstances, and explain how to exploit synergies and complementarities between
different instruments.
(b) Strategy and action plan. Present strategic priorities in the energy sector from the
perspective of poverty impact; explain how the proposed continental and regional
strategies for the energy sector responds to global challenges and lessons from
experience. Provide an action matrix of medium-term goals and implementation
strategy. Assess existing staff skills in AU, NEPAD and RECs and resources needed and
available for the implementation of the energy strategy and discuss implementation risks
and risk management strategy.
(c) Regional-level disaggregation. The RECs should participate in formulating the
Regional energy strategy at the Sub Regional level, to ensure a high degree of
consistency between the AU/NEPAD Strategic Framework and Sub-Regional and
National energy sector strategies.
(d) Research agenda. The Strategic Framework should discuss knowledge management
issues, and dissemination and awareness building.
(e) Integrating risk identification and mitigation methods at the planning stage
4. Monitoring of implementation (which includes establishing monitorable indicators of
outcomes, and clear monitoring responsibilities)
(a) Monitoring system and indicators. The Strategic Framework needs to include a
monitoring and evaluation system.
(b) Monitoring and evaluation frameworks. The Strategic Framework should present a
framework for monitoring and evaluating implementation. It should spell out the links
among focus areas, strategic objectives, NEPAD activities needed to meet the objectives
and time-bound, monitorable medium-term goals.
Check list for M&E:

Implementation progress indicators established
Outcome indicators established
Baseline information presented
Implementation targets specified
Implementation timeframe established
Monitoring schedules and responsibilities defined

Annexe F
Statistical Tables
Electricity Access in 2005 (millions)
Pop Pop Urban pop Rural pop Urban Rural

Region with without without without electrif electrif
access access access access (%) (%)
Sub-Sahara 191 547 109 439 58 8
MENA* 291 48 16 36 88 83
East Asia 1,728 224 39 189 95 84
South Asia 760 706 88 627 70 47
Latin America 404 45 7 38 98 66
World 4,875 1,577 284 1,339 90 62
Source: IEA 2006. Note: Although reported for 2005, data are from earlier years. * Middle
East and North Africa.
2007 Final energy consumption of Africa (1000 TOE

Coal,
Combustible
Petroleum
renewable Electricity Gas … Total
products
and wastes
Final
Consu
261497 112456 43377 28282 16577 … 462207
mptio
n
Industry 25653 14408 19645 15336 9494 … 84536
Transport 0 66234 394 1459 5 … 68092
Residential -
235844 25266 23338 5623 5806 … 295895
other
Source: AfDB

Power Generating Capacity in Africa (GW)
2007 2015 2030

Total Africa 153 178 280
North Africa 37.2 52.5 96.8
West Africa 9.6 14.7 39.7
Central Africa 4.1 7.6 25.7
Eastern Africa 4.1 7.5 23.2
Southern Africa 56.3 73.5 117.6
Island States 0.9 1.2 3.5
Source: AfDB
Total Capital Investment in power sector 2010- 2030 (billion 2005 US$)
Production Transport Distribution Total / year

Northern Africa (5 MICs) 82 29 62 173 7.5
Rep. of South Africa 77 5 10 92 4.0
Sub-Sahara Africa (41 Countries) 102 54 119 275 12.0
Island States (6 Countries) 4 1 2 7 0.3
AFRICA 265 89 194 547 23.8
Source: AfDB

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African Development Bank

Group AFRICAN UNION NEPAD

Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development

TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................... 1

LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................. 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................... 6

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 1

ACOWAS/CEDEAO Economic Community of West African States

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 2

ENCOM Eastern Nile Council of Ministers

ISP Internet Service Provider

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 3

IWMI International Water Management Institute

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 4

SAR Search and Rescue systems

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 5

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 6

The study will consider investments in physical infrastructure, or “hard” investments,

Transport services on the African continent are inefficient as demonstrated by high

Cumbersome administrative procedures, poor management practices and poor

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 7

 Give details on their level of completion

A brief of ICT sector can be summarizing by 3 sentences:

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 8

Develop ICT governance and regulatory environments to reduce the end-user

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 9

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 10

The report comprises five sections:

One horizontal section, geared to responding to the General Terms of Reference;

1.1 The inception process

The steps of the inception stage have included:

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 1

Identification and detailed description of the tasks to be performed;

1.2 The structure of the inception report

This section will present the material pertaining to:

The outputs of the study;

1.3.1 Regional economic community (REC) and economic integration

Basic Elements of the Six Stages of Economic Integration

Stage 1 Consolidation Strengthening existing RECs

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 2

Stage 3 Customs FTA + common external tariff

Stage 4 Common CU extended to the Continent + free movement of capital

Stage 5 Economic CM + common economic policies and institutions (may

The Arab Maghreb Union (UMA)

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 3

Source : UN-ECA Assessing Regional integration in Africa IV, 2010, page 32

The other Inter Governmental Organizations (IGO) (such as CEMAC, UEMOA or

The European Coal and Steel Community established in 1950 is an example of

1.3.3 Regional integration

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 4

1.3.4 Regional cooperation

1.3.6 Continental /regional projects

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 5

The following projects would be considered regional under these assumptions:

A substantial portion of national infrastructure investments has regional

PIDA study projects

Investments in physical infrastructure including major dams, irrigation schemes,

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 6

Project requiring multi country cooperation for

Projects in the second transport decade for Africa;

Projects that connect Africa to the rest of the world; and

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 7

2.2 Objectives of the study

2.2.1 Global objective