Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1978
Colosio, D., Castro, L.J. and Rogers, A. (1978) Migration, Urbanization and Development: A Case Study of Mexico. IIASA
Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, WP-78-027 Copyright © 1978 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/883/
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MIGRATION, URBANI ZATION, AND DEVELOPMENT:
A CASE STUDY OF MEXICO
Donaldo Colosio
Luis J. Castro
Andrei Rogers
2361
Laxenburg
Austria
I International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Demographic Consequences 10
Production 17
Labor Markets 20
Labor Migration 25
Capital Markets 26
CONCLUSION 31
-iii-
Migration, Urbanization, and Development:
A Case Study of Mexico
INTRODUCTION
The fact that the manufacturing sector has not been dynamic
enough to absorb the growing labor force is notable in the Mexi-
can development experience. From 1940 to 1970, the industrial
sector absorbed only an average of 19% of the total economically
- 5 -
Future Paths
Migratiop
I unchanged
Unchanged
unchanged
Increase of QRPセ over
iI 25 years; then a re-
iI duction to XPセ of
,, that peak over 40
years: then unchanged
-
·Rates for Mexico are for 1970 and were obtained by rough estimations using_historical data.
- ·10 -
Demographic Consequences
80
70
60
50
40
30
20 - -
-- - " " _ - -...........
...........M M M M セ
RURAL TO URBAN
-
• .......-. URBAN TO RURAL
. ......... .......
10
.""" . J: - - - - - _ . _ . -"- .. _ - --
- -. _ .-
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2090
YEAR
Figure 1. Percentage urban, and rural· urban and urban - rural outmigration rates:
1970. This difference ultimately drops to practically zero in
both scenarios, with the ratio stabilizing at just over 200 in
the constant fertility projection and leveling off at about 30
points under that total in the reduced fertility scenario.
200 200
A A
190 190
180 180
170 B: 170
160 160 B
150 . RELATIVE SIZES OF TOTAL 150 RELATIVE SIZES OF TOTAL
ANNUAL RATE URBAN POPULATIONS ANNUf'L RATE RURAL POPULATIONS
OF INCREASE 10 OF inセreas 10--·
.06·· .06
.-..
+:"
9 9
I
.05 8 .05 8
7 7
.•04
.03
.02
セU
//A/B
6
4
.04
.03
.02
/
/
l'5
"../ 3 3
2 2
.01 .01
----------.".,...,. •• 1
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 1940 1960 1930 2000 2020 2040· 2060 2080
YEAR YEAR
Production
(1)
where
o= distribution parameter;
1-0
1
p = substitution parameter, where p = and 01
°1
is the elasticity of substitution in the industrial
sector;
o< 01 < 1
(2)
where
(3)
where
e = distribution parameter;
- 20 -
1-0'
2
v = substitution parameter, where v = and 0'2
Labor Markets
(4)
where the dot denotes a time derivative. The rate of labor force
increase in industry, in the informal sector, and in agriculture
are represented by n 1 , n 2 , and n 3 , respectively. These could be
tween n and n " This reflects the fact that workers in the in-
1 2
formal sector, by being underemployed, have not had the oppor-
tunity to experience a complete transformation of their attitudes
from traditional to modern [Gilbert (1976)]"
(6)
where
W1 (t) (7 )
where
W (t)
1
= wage rate in the industrial sector, given in terms
of the industrial good;
- 22 -
(9)
- 23
where
W (t)
3
= wage rate in the informal sector;
P3 (t) = terms .. ()f trade be.tween the informal sector and the
rest MセHIヲ the ・セッョ ュyN as given by:
(10)
(11 )
where
therefore
or
So that
(12 )
where
f3 = LL\
\1-T"j
- 25 -
Labor Migration
(13 )
m(t) = M(t) ( 14 )
L (t)
2
( 16)
Capital Markets
j = 1,2 (18 )
.
where K is net investment, Ij(t) ゥセ total gross investment and
j
K is the rate of depreciation (assumed to be constant and identi-
cal in both sectors).
c
S';: (t)
J
= s. Y';:(t)
J J
j = 1,2 (19 )
1
sセHエI = s. yセHエI
J J J
where S?(t) and sセHエI are total savings from capitalists and
J J
workers of sector j; s7 and ウセ are the marginal propensities to
J J
save. Incomes accruing to both capitalists and workers are as-
sumed to be net of taxes.
yセHエI (20)
1
- 28 -
(21)
i = 1,2
P =
I J. (t) セ
T S
j
(t) j = 1,2 ( 22)
P
where I. (t) is the amount of private savings invested in the
J
sector of origin j, while 1; is a parameter. Sj (t) is the sum
Thus,
-n 1 (r* (t»)
e if r* セ 0
iセrHエI
ゥセ (t) = =
sセHエI
1 if r* < 0
(23)
(24)
(25 )
- 30 -
(26 )
( 27)
and
(28)
CONCLUSION
the farm to the city enables them to raise their personal in-
come and to obtain social services of a much wider variety and
superior quality than were available to them before.
development.
References
Souza, P.R., and V.E. Tokman, (1976), The Informal Urban Sector
in Latin America, International Labour Review, Vol. 114,
No l, 355-365.
Todaro, M.P., (1976), Urban Job Expansion, Induced Migration
and Rising Unemployment, Journal of Development Economies, セG
211-225.
Weber, R., (1975), The Urban Traditienal Sector in Peru, .:Mimeo ,..
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.