Currency Insight

A Da ily Compre hen sive Repo rt on Cur ren cy

8 June 2010
PIVOT TABLE
Exchange Contract Support 2 Support 1 Close Resistance 1 Resistance 2
USDINR- MCX-Sx June 46.8600 47.0100 47.2325 47.4600 47.6400
USDINR-NSE June 46.8600 47.0100 47.2325 47.4600 47.6400
EURINR June 55.8900 56.2800 56.5200 56.8300 57.1000
GBPINR June 67.9700 68.2100 68.4400 68.7000 69.1000
JPYINR June 50.8600 51.1300 51.3525 51.6200 51.9400

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATION
Pair Contract Buy/Sell Range Target Stop loss
USDINR- Futures June Sell at 47.30 47 47.52
EURINR- Futures June Sideways --- --- ---
GBPINR- Futures June Sideways --- --- ---
JPYINR- Futures June Sell at 51.58 51 51.74

Market Recap: Important Pairs to Watch for

The Indi an rupee marked ran on a depreciation mode as the CROSS LAST 1 Day ago % Change
speculative fund outflows from the stock market are USDINR Spot 47.10 46.85 0.53
expected to withdraw the inv estors from the risky assets of MCX-SX Futures 47.21 46.93 0.60
emerging economies. The global economy is poised for a NSE Futures 47.21 46.94 0.59
delayed recovery ahead, as the Euro-zone officials plan to EURO Futures 56.06 56.36 -0.53
cut the budget deficit. The Spot rupee hi t an intra day hi gh at GBP Futures 67.94 68.05 -0.16
47.4300 and registered the day's low at 47.0244, to settle JPY (100) Futures 0.52 0.51 0.64
nearing day’s low of 47.095, losing close to 0.53% as ICE Dollar Index 88.41 88.23 0.19
compares to Friday’s close of 46.845.
Reference Rates as on 6/7/2010
The off-shore (NDF) dollar premium eas ed slightly for the
day as compared to the onshore premium s tabilizing at the Pair LAST 1 Day ago % Change
prior day’s lev els. Lowering of difference in premiums USDINR 47.28 46.67 1.31
helped the rupee to recoup some of the opening loses of GBPINR 68.24 68.72 -0.70
around 1.24%. Rupee also regained some momentum as the JPYINR 100 51.87 50.36 3.00
exporters and corporate sold their dollar holdings to benefit EURINR 56.38 56.85 -0.83
from the early fall. The 30-share stock market struggl ed
hard to maintain above the crucial 17,000 levels but failed.
The index moved in range of 16,686 through 17,069, to
settle at 16,781, low by 1.96% or around 340 points.
Fundamental Outlook:
Forei gn fund inflows are the main drivers of the Indi an The Asian market opened modest low despite the lower
rupee, and further flows (i n/out) in the stocks affects the closing in the Wall Street. This could ins till a flat opening
rupee as well. The FII are liquidating thei r holdings due to in the Indi an Stock market. Moreov er, the dollar index
global factors and this is weighing sentiments towards the openi ng at 88.433 now low by 0.18% could also weigh on
rupee. The overseas inv estors sold US $2 billion more Indi an the rupee. Overall, we expect rupee to trade sideways for
shares than they bought in M ay, the mos t since October the day.
2008, bringing down net inflows in 2010 to US $ 4.6 billion.
This is against the US $17.5 billion inflows in year 2009.

Moreover, the dollar i ndex, a performance track agains t the

basket majors, was up 0.3% during the day and pressurized
the rupee to wade low.

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 Currency Insight
A Da ily Compre hen sive Repo rt on Cur ren cy

Technical Update
USD/INR-June futures:

Currency pair USD/INR June futures initially traded

higher and after making a high of 47.5975 it settl ed
lower at 47. 2325 levels. Closing of the previous day
candle renders sideways to lower movements for the
day. Market is likely to see a lower correction.
However, on the lower side crucial support is at 47
levels if market fails to breach the same likely to
bounce back. We recommend s elling near 47.3 lev els
targeting 47 levels.

MCX-SX PVO Analysis

USDINR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE VOLUME % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST % CHANGE
Jun-10 47.30 47.60 47.16 47.21 0.60 3,992,141 29.59 519,299 10.98
Jul-10 47.71 47.71 47.29 47.32 0.62 59,744 22.15 131,357 5.93
Aug-10 47.71 47.75 47.38 47.41 0.49 12,811 -5.06 26,959 10.66
Sep-10 47.78 47.80 47.49 47.51 0.67 651 1708.33 8,362 3.66

NSE PVO Analysis

USDINR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE VOLUME % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST % CHANGE
Jun-10 47.38 47.60 47.16 47.21 0.59 3,235,323 58.53 589,972 5.09
Jul-10 47.40 47.78 47.28 47.32 0.48 41,393 -4.21 123,923 -0.41
Aug-10 47.50 47.78 47.38 47.43 0.54 13,196 0.35 35,434 16.71
Sep-10 47.77 47.80 47.47 47.49 0.51 954 442.05 11,511 2.83

MCX-SX Spread Sheet NSE Spread Sheet

USDINR Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 USDINR Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Jun-10 0.0000 Jun-10 0.0000
Jul-10 0.1100 0.0000 Jul-10 0.1025 0.0000
Aug-10 0.1975 0.0875 0.0000 Aug-10 0.2150 0.1125 0.0000
Sep-10 0.2975 0.1875 0.1799 0.0000 Sep-10 0.2725 0.1700 -0.0273 0.0000

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 Currency Insight
A Da ily Compre hen sive Repo rt on Cur ren cy

Major World Indices Forwards Market (Onshore & Offshore)

INDICES LAST 1 Day ago % Change FORWARDS LAST 1 Day ago % Change
NIFTY 5034.00 5135.50 -1.98 1-Mth Forward 47.2725 47.0140 0.55
SENSEX 16781.07 17117.69 -1.97 3-Mth Forward 47.4825 47.2300 0.53
NASDAQ 2173.90 2219.17 -2.04 6-Mth Forward 47.7275 47.4875 0.51
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL 9816.49 9931.97 -1.16 12-Mth Forward 48.1358 47.9645 0.36
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 2511.73 2553.59 -1.64 1-Mth NDF 47.3700 47.4700 -0.21
NIKKIE 225 9520.80 9901.19 -3.84 3-Mth NDF 47.6700 47.7300 -0.13
HANGSENG 19378.15 19780.07 -2.03 6-Mth NDF 47.9400 48.0100 -0.15
FTSE Index 5069.06 5126.00 -1.11 12-Mth NDF 48.4200 48.4500 -0.06

Asian Currency Pairs Debt Market Information

ASIAN/INR LAST 1 Day ago % Change INDICATORS LAST 1 Day ago % Change
Chinese Yuan 6.8930 6.8600 0.48 LIBOR 1Mth 0.3500 0.3500 0.00
Hongkong Dollar 6.0340 6.0100 0.40 LIBOR 3Mth 0.5372 0.5366 0.12
Indonesian Rupiah 0.5080 0.5097 -0.33 MIBOR 1Mth 0.4300 0.4300 0.00
Myanmar Ringgit 14.1299 14.3038 -1.22 MIBOR 3Mth 0.7100 0.7100 0.00
Philipinnes Peso 1.0056 1.0118 -0.61 U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield 1.9298 1.9826 -2.66
Singapore Dollar 33.2157 33.1459 0.21 U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield 3.1422 3.2023 -1.88
S Korean Won 0.3812 0.3898 -2.20 India 5Yr Bond Yield 7.3720 7.4000 -0.38
Taiwan Dollar 1.4519 1.4553 -0.23 India 10Yr Bond Yield 7.4850 7.5670 -1.08
Thailand Baht 1.4431 1.4343 0.61 Call Rate 5.1500 5.2800 -2.46

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