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There are also bad inferences, or inferences that may appear persuasive that on further
inspection turn out to be misleading. For example:
The strength of your argument depends entirely on two things: the accuracy of your evidence,
and the strength of your inferences. If you have solid evidence and you draw valid inferences,
your argument will be complete.
This allows you to infer that grapes are poisonous for your dog, too. If the premise is true
then the conclusion has to be true. There’s no other possibility. Notice, however, that this
doesn’t really tell you anything new: once you say “grapes are poisonous to all dogs,” you
already know that grapes are poisonous for your specific dog. Deduction has the advantage of
certainty, but it doesn’t generate new knowledge.
“For the last two years, Amanda has woken up at 8am every day”
This allows you to infer that Amanda will probably wake up at 8am tomorrow, too. You
would probably be right, and it’s a reasonable inference but it’s not certain! Tomorrow could
be the first day that Amanda decides to sleep in. Despite this uncertainty, however, induction
does offer the possibility of predicting future events and creating new knowledge.
Questions:
Where Am I ?
1. It felt wonderful to be outside, even if only for a little while! All the swings were
already taken, and a group was playing softball on the diamond. Casey and I decided
use the monkey bars until the teacher called us.
2. The water felt so good on such a hot day. I heard the other children laughing and
yelling across the way. The concrete was wet from a group of teenagers splashing
each other in the corner. The lifeguard watched closely to keep children from running
Who Am I ?
1. I had finally gotten used to being weightless. It became a comfortable feeling. I
especially liked floating by the window to see the planet Earth below.
2. I often work in the early morning when the light is best. The canvas has had time to
dry over night. When I start, I make sure all of my brushes are clean.
Where Am I ?
1. A playground
2. A swimming pool
Who Am I ?
1. Am astronaut
2. An artist
PART II
Claude walked slowly to the barn. He could hear the puppies as they cried for their
mother. It would be a long night if she did not come back soon.
1. Claude is:
A. male B. female
Why do you think that?
________________________________________________________________
2. Claude is:
A. a human B. an animal C. don’t know
Why do you think that?
________________________________________________________________
PART III
As I walked in the door, I knew there was trouble right away. The trash can was
turned over, and
papers were everywhere. The sofa cushions were on the floor. One of the pillows
had been ripped
open. Stuffing was all over the floor. As I looked around I saw Ringo in the corner.
He had a ball in his
mouth, ready to play.
1. What is Ringo?
_____________________________________________________________________
2. What happened to the trash can, the sofa cushions and the pillow?
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