May 10, 2018

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
Re: California CD-48, Primary Poll Findings
Democrat and neuroscientist Hans Keirstead is well within the margins for a 2nd place position in
the closing weeks of the June primary in California CD-48. A recent survey from Anzalone Liszt
Grove Research shows incumbent Congressman Dana Rohrabacher leading the June primary
field with 31% of the vote, followed by a three-way statistical tie among Democrat Hans
Keirstead, Republican Scott Baugh, and Democrat Harley Rouda.

Keirstead receives more votes than any other Democrat in a full ballot test, condensed ballot
test, and separates himself from Harley Rouda in an informed vote test (language tested
provided at the end of this memo). Among registered Democrats, Keirstead begins with a +2
point lead over Harley Rouda in the current vote and separates himself from Rouda with a +9
point lead among Democrats in a balanced informed vote. With the threat of being locked out of
the June primary and voters already casting permanent absentee votes, Democrats need to
consolidate now behind Hans Keirstead – the strongest Democratic candidate in the field.

With the momentum from the California Democratic Party endorsement, a well-funded
campaign, and a story that resonates and moves Democrats his direction, Hans Keirstead is
Democrats’ best chance to defeat Scott Baugh and secure a position to face a weakened Dana
Rohrabacher this November.

Current Vote Shows a Close Race: Keirstead on Top Among Democrats

Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher is well positioned to advance to the June ballot, followed by a
three-way tie for 2nd position. Rohrabacher leads overall but receives a weak vote share for a
longtime incumbent (31% Rohrabacher / 15% Baugh / 14% Keirstead / 13% Rouda /
5% Siddiqui / 4% Oatman / 2% Payne / 2% Gabbard / 1% Onufrei / 1% Kotick /
12% undecided).

Hans Keirstead is also the top candidate among registered Democrats in the seat, with the
current vote standing at 30% Keirstead / 28% Rouda / 8% Siddiqui / 6% Oatman / 5%
Rohrabacher / 4% Payne / 1% Kotick / 1% Baugh / 1% Gabbard / 1% Other / 14% undecided.

Informed Vote Shows Keirstead is the Top Democratic Contender

We tested an informed vote among the candidates actively campaigning, providing biographies
for those candidates who had engaged in paid communications at the time of the survey. And
in order to determine the top Democratic contender, we provided balanced biographies on
Keirstead and Rouda, using language directly from their websites and paid communications.

The following findings are based on a poll of n=400 likely June primary voters, as well as an oversample
of n=100 registered Democrats in California’s’ 48th Congressional District. This survey was conducted
May 6-8, 2018 via landlines and cellphones. The margin of error for the main sample is +4.9% and is
higher for subgroups.
 Anzalone Liszt Grove Research 2

CA-48 voters find Keirstead’s biography more appealing than Rouda’s and Keirstead grows his
vote support +5 points in an informed vote, moving to 2nd position on the June ballot.
Meanwhile, Harley Rouda only increases his support +1 point overall, and Rouda continues to
trail Republican Scott Baugh in the informed vote. In a closely contested race, the informed test
shows that Hans Keirstead is the strongest Democratic candidate on the June ballot.

Below are the exact bios tested in the informed vote:

Democrat Hans Keirstead is a neuroscientist and stem cell researcher who says science and
basic facts are under attack by Donald Trump and Washington. He will fight to pass Medicare-for-
all, lower health costs, and will protect women's health rights. Keirstead will be a leader in using
evidence and facts to improve people's lives. (50% more likely to support Keirstead)

Democrat Harley Rouda is a successful businessman, tech entrepreneur, and a bold

progressive. He believes now is the time to take on Donald Trump and take action to fight climate
change and gun violence. Rouda is running to move Orange County forward and stand up to
Dana Rohrabacher’s agenda. (45% more likely to support Rouda)

Republican Scott Baugh says we need more from our members of Congress. He stood up to
special interests, repealed the car tax, and Baugh will secure the border and fight corruption in
Congress. (56% more likely to support Baugh)

Republican John Gabbard is a Marine veteran, and small businessman. He says we need term
limits to drain the swamp in Congress. (55% more likely to support Gabbard)

Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has been a fierce, reliable advocate for
taxpayers and is a leader in the fight against illegal immigration.
(52% more likely to support Rohrabacher)

40
32
Informed Vote for Congress - CA-48
30
20
20 17 15

10 6 4 6

0
Rohrabacher Keirstead Baugh Rouda Siddiqui Gabbard Undecided

California’s 48th Congressional District continues to be a prime pickup opportunity for

Democrats – if they can place 2nd position on the June primary ballot. Incumbent
Republican Dana Rohrabacher is weakened in this seat carried by Hillary Clinton in the
2016 Presidential election. Neuroscientist Hans Keirstead is Democrats’ strongest
opportunity to place in 2nd position this June. Keirstead’s bio is particularly compelling to
Democrats and only Keirstead outpaces Republican Scott Baugh in an informed vote.
With the resources to communicate down the stretch, Keirstead can place 2nd in June
and prepare to flip this seat for Democrats in November.