Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

MS- ASSIGNMENT

Question 2:
Year Quarter Data Centre Trend Error after Seasonability Forecast
Trend
1 1 25
1 2 32
32
1 3 34 33.375 0.625 0.625 34
36.75
1 4 37 35.75 1.25 1.25 37
37.875
2 1 36 37.875 -1.875 -1.875 36
39
2 2 40 40 0 0 40
41
2 3 43
2 4 45

Forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2nd year is 40.

Now for next quarter we consider trend to be proportional to time => It is a
straight line through
(4,35.75) and (6,40) where x=time and
y=trend. (y-35.75) = 4.25/2 * (x-y)
Putting x=7 in the equation we find y=42.125.
Forecast for 3rd quarter for 2nd year = 42.125+0.625 = 42.75

Simple Average Method :

Year Quarter Data Forecast
1 1 25 25
1 2 32 28.5
1 3 34 30.33
1 4 37 32
2 1 36 32.8
2 2 40 34
2 3 43 35.28
2 4 45 36.5
3 1 36.5 36.5

Predicted 3rd year 1st quarter sales = 36.5

Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Simple Exponential Method:

Year Quarter Data Forecast(a0 = 25)
1 1 25 A1 = 25
1 2 32 A 2 = 25.7
1 3 34 A 3 = 26.53
1 4 37 A 4 = 27.577
A
2 1 36 5 = 28.4193

A
2 2 40 6 = 29.577
A
2 3 43 7 = 30.9196
A
2 4 45 8 = 32.328
3 1 32.328
Sales predicted = 32.328.

Question 3
Probability function C8rprq8-r where we consider p=q=0.5
Profit Table:
Demand Probability S=0 S=1 S=2 S=3 S=4 S=5
0 0.0039 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 -75
1 0.0312 -20 10 -5 -20 -35 -50
2 0.109 -40 -10 20 5 -10 -25
3 0.2187 -60 -30 0 30 15 0
4 0.2734 -80 -50 -20 10 40 25
5 0.2187 -100 -70 -40 -10 20 50
6 0.109 -120 -90 -60 -30 0 30
7 0.0312 -140 -110 -80 -50 -20 10
8 0.0039 -160 -130 -100 -70 -40 -10
Expected Profit: EX(profit/S=0) = -79.92
EX(profit/S=1)=-50.1255
EX(profit/S=2)=-21.735
EX(profit/S=3)=1.7505
EX(profit/S=4)=18.1697
(max profit)
EX(profit/S=5)=16.7355
Maximum profit = 0.0039*(-10) + 0.0312 * 20 + 0.109*50 + 0.2187*80 + 0.2734*40 =34.467
EVPI = 34.467 – 18.1697 = 16.2973
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Question 4
Expected no. of failures in the 8 year period = 0*0.1 + 1*0.2 + 2*0.3 + 3*0.2 +
4*0.1 + 5*0.1 +0 = 2.3

Cost Table:
No. of Probability P=0 P=1 P=2 P=3 P=4 P=5
failure
0 0.1 0 4K 8K 12K 16K 20K
1 0.2 18K 4K 8K 12K 16K 20K
2 0.3 36K 22K 8K 12K 16K 20K
3 0.2 54K 40K 26K 12K 16K 20K
4 0.1 72K 58K 44K 30K 16K 20K
5 0.1 90K 76K 62K 48K 34K 20K
When cost is minimum profit is maximum.
Regret Table:
No. of Probability P=0 P=1 P=2 P=3 P=4 P=5 Max
failure Profit
0 0.1 0 4K 8K 12K 16K 20K 0K
1 0.2 4K 0K 4K 8K 12K 16K 4K
2 0.3 28k 14K 0K 4K 8K 12K 8K
3 0.2 42K 28K 14K 0K 4K 8K 12K
4 0.1 56K 42K 28K 14K 0K 4K 16K
5 0.1 70K 56K 42K 28K 14K 0K 20K
EVPI = 9.5K
Now if probabilities are unknown we have to consider decision taking under uncertainty
Laplacian Rule:
Here every state has equal
probability of 1/6 EX(Minimum
Cost/P=0) = 45K EX(Minimum
Cost/P=1)=34K
EX(Minimum Cost/P=2)=26K
EX(Minimum Cost/P=3)=21K
EX(Minimum Cost/P=4)=19K(minimum cost => maximum
profit) EX(Minimum Cost/P=5)=20K
So, suitable alternative is P=4 which gives maximum profit.

Question 5 :
Given the profit per person =
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

$600 Below the deficit capacity =

$350/person Above the capacity
= $550/person
Here we have to choose the best categories among the above alternatives
considering maximum profit or minimum cost.
Profit Table :
Demand C=150 C=200 C=250 C=300 C=350 Max Profit
150 90K 62.5K 35K 7.5K -20K 90K
200 72.5K 120K 92.5K 65K 37.5K 120K
250 55K 102.5K 150K 122.5K 95K 150K

180
300 37.5K 85K 132.5K 180K 152.5K K
350K 20K 67.5K 115K 162.5K 210K 210K
Decision under uncertainties using the following method:

Laplacian Rule : Each state has equal probabilities

of 0.2
EX(profit/C=150) = 55K
EX(profit/C=200)=87.5K
EX(profit/C=250)=105K
EX(profit/C=300)=107.5K(ma
x profit)
EX(profit/C=350)=95K
So suitable alternative according to this rule is capacity of 300 with expected profit of
$107.5K

Question 6
Network Diagram :
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Key:

EST EFT
LST LFT
The number on the first block represents the Slack of each event.
T T T
Task p o m µ Σ
0 5 2 3 3.167 0.5
1 10 2 6 6 1.3
2 5 2 4 3.833 0.5
3 4 1 3 2.833 0.5

4 1 1 1 1 0
5 4 4 4 4 0
6 6 4 5 5 0.33
7 7 2 5 4.833 0.833
8 1 1 1 1 0
9 3 2 2 2.167 0.167
Critical Path : 0->3->6->9 σ
for critical path = 1.223
Z=(x-µ)/σ =(15-13.167)/1.223 = 1.5
Probability that job will be completed before 15 days = 0.5+0.3888 = 0.8888
Hence there is a probability of 0.8888.
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Question 7
Network Diagram

Key:
EST EFT
LST LFT
The number on the first block represents the Slack of each event.
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Question 8
Profit Table:
No of Probability S=15 S=16 S=17 S=18 S=19 S=20

copies
15 0.04 225 200 175 150 125 100
16 0.19 225 240 215 190 165 140
17 0.33 225 240 255 230 205 180
18 0.26 225 240 255 270 245 220

No of Probability S=15 S=16 S=17 S=18 S=19 S=20

copies
15 0.04 225 200 175 150 125 100
16 0.19 225 240 215 190 165 140
17 0.33 225 240 255 230 205 180
18 0.26 225 240 255 270 245 220

EX(Profit/S=17)=244.2(Max Profit)
EX(Profit/S=18)=236.8
EX(Profit/S=19)=219
EX(Profit/S=20)=196.8
Suitable alternative is S=17.

19 0.11 225 240 255 270 285 260

20 0.07 225 240 255 270 285 300
Expected profit
EX(Profit/S=15)=225
EX(Profit/S=16)=238.4
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Question 9
Network Diagram :

Key:
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

EST EFT
LST LFT
The number on the first block represents the Slack of each event.

Task Tp To Tm µ Σ
A 3 1 2 2 0.333
B 3 1 2 2 0.333
C 3 1 2 2 0.333
D 6 2 4 4 0.667
E 14 2 5 6 2
F 3 1 2 2 0.333
G 5 1 3 3 0.667
H 20 10 12 13 1.667
I 7 3 5 5 0.667
J 15 5 10 10 1.667
Critical path : A->D->E->G->H->I->J
We need P(Z) = 1
σ of critical path = 2.769
Z=(x-µ)/σ = (x-43)/2.769
According to table if Z=3.09 we have P(Z) nearly equal to 1
So, (x-43)/2.769 = 3.09
Which gives x = 52
Task will be completed in 52 days approximately.

Question 10
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99
Rahul Singh – 13/CS/99

Question 11
Total pens = 1000 out of which 100 sample pens are taken and one is selected from them
which is found to be defective.
We need to find P( i defective pens present in 100/one is defective)
We know P(A/B) = (P(B/A).P(A))/P(B)
Required probability =( P(one defective / i no of defective in 100)*P(i defective in 100) ) /
(P(one item defective when one defective) + P(one item defective when two defective) + …. P(
one item defective when 10 are defective) )
= (1/i * C100i * (0.01) i * (0.99) 100-i ) / ( 1/100 + 2/100 + … 10/100)
Hence putting values of i as 1,2,…10 we get
P(i=1) =0.672
P(i=2)=0.168
P(i=3)=0.0365
P(i=4)=0.00679
P(i=5)=0.0026
P(i=6)=0.00014
P(i=7)=0.0000163
P(i=8)=0.00000167
P(i=9)=0.000000153
P(i=10)=0.0000000127