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LEAD AND ZINC SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK FOR 2018
Joao Jorge
Director of Market Research and Statistics
International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)
25 April 2018, Lisbon
Lead Stocks and Prices
Apr 2013 – Apr 2018 US $ per tonne
‘000 tonnes monthly average
800 3000
700
2500
600
2000
500
400 1500
300
1000
200
500
100
0 0
Apr‐13 Apr‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐16 Apr‐17 Apr‐18
1
World Lead Metal Demand Forecast
Global Annual Change
5.0%
ILZSG Forecast 4.0%
3.0%
1.0%
‐ China 3.4%
0.0%
‐ Ex China 2.1%
‐1.0%
‐2.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Source: ILZSG
3
European and US Lead Demand
Europe United States
2200 2000
‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes
1900
2000
1800
1700
1800
1600
1600 1500
1400
1400
1300
1200
1200
1100
1000 1000
Source: ILZSG
2
World Lead Mine Supply Forecast
Global Annual Change
6.0%
ILZSG Forecast 4.0%
2.0%
‐6.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Source: ILZSG
5
Lead Mine Supply 2000‐2018f
750
‘000 tonnes
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f
3
World Lead Metal Supply Forecast
Global Annual Change
4.0%
ILZSG Forecast 3.0%
2.0%
‐ China 4.7%
0.0%
‐ Ex China 3.1%
‐1.0%
‐2.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Source: ILZSG
7
World Lead Metal Supply Forecast 2018
China
USA
Australia
Belgium
Italy
‘000 tonnes
4
Decline in USA Refined Lead Output
Exide Technologies 65
kt/yr secondary plant at Exide Technologies 70 Doe Run’s 220 kt/yr
Frisco closes in Nov12 kt/yr secondary plant at Herculaneum plant
‘000 tonnes
Reading closes in Mar13 closes in Dec13
1350 JCI plant in S. Carolina
opens in Sep12 Operations
1300 suspended at Output
1250 Exide disrupted at
Technologies 88 Quemetco’s
1200 kt/yr Vernon plant in
1150 plant in Mar14 California
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
Source: ILZSG
World Refined Lead Metal Balance
Source: ILZSG
10
5
Zinc Stocks and Prices
Apr 2013 – Apr 2018 US $ per tonne
‘000 tonnes monthly average
2500 4000
3500
2000
3000
2500
1500
2000
1000
1500
1000
500
500
0 0
Apr‐13 Apr‐14 Apr‐15 Apr‐16 Apr‐17 Apr‐18
World Zinc Metal Demand Forecast
Global Annual Change
5.0%
ILZSG Forecast 4.0%
3.0%
‐ China 2.2%
1.0%
‐ Ex China 1.9%
0.0%
‐1.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Source: ILZSG
12
6
Mixed Chinese Indicators
for Start of 2018
Galvanizing activity has been affected by
environmental restrictions due to severe
winter and smoggy weather
Property Investment 9.9%
Air Conditioner output 17.0%
Refrigerator output 4.5%
Other home appliances output ‐1.1%
Automotive sales 1.7%
GDP 6.8% Source: Antaike
13
World Zinc Mine Supply Forecast
Global Annual Change
8.0%
ILZSG Forecast 6.0%
4.0%
0.0%
‐ China 2.3%
‐2.0%
‐ Ex China 6.8%
‐4.0%
‐6.0%
‐8.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Source: ILZSG
14
7
Zinc Mine Supply 2000‐2018f
1800
‘000 tonnes
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
15
Zinc Mine Supply 2000‐2018f
1100
‘000 tonnes
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f
16
8
World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast
Global Annual Change
5.0%
ILZSG Forecast 4.0%
3.0%
‐1.0%
‐2.0%
‐3.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Source: ILZSG
17
World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast 2018
China
Canada
Australia
Norway
Korea Rep
Belgium
Italy
USA
Thailand ‘000 tonnes
18
9
Decline in Canadian Refined Zinc Output
‘000 tonnes
900 Hudson Bay’s refinery in
Flin Flon, Manitoba, Xtrata’s 150kt/yr Kidd
850 expands capacity to refinery in Timmins, Ontario
114kt/yr in 2001 closes in May 2010
800
Strike at Noranda Income
750 Fund’s Valleyfield refinery,
Feb‐Nov 2017
700
650
600
550
500
Source: ILZSG
19
Zinc Metal World Balance
Source: ILZSG 20
10
REVIEW OF THE CURRENT
LEAD AND ZINC SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK FOR 2018
Joao Jorge
Director of Market Research and Statistics
International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)
25 April 2018, Lisbon
11