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Gas Turbine maintenance preview:

Global markets 2009-2018

November - December 2009 • Volume 39 No. 6


Gas turbine maintenance preview:
Global markets 2009-2018 By Victor de Biasi

Powergen operations, heavy frame units and developing


markets dominate growth picture in which independent service
providers and non-OEM parts play a larger role.

I n the breaking dawn of a new de-


cade, the road to 2019 winds
through more shadow than light. But
ery operating GT, there’s a minimum,
non-negotiable baseline expense to
keep the engine online and running
The real surprises, when they ap-
pear, are in the drill-down details and
the owners’ “gut” inclinations, both of
even from this far out, you don’t need within spec. Every passing year puts which have been captured in a recent
a Nimitz-class statistical model to an- more units in the field, and more study by global industry consulting
ticipate the broad outlines of future hours on the engines. And whether group AeroStrategy.
gas turbine product and service com- it’s a gold rush or a recession, mainte- In partnership with Gas Turbine
mitments. nance won’t wait. World, AeroStrategy undertook a

Base. Global installed base is ex- Total Installations (46,455 units) The 2009 worldwide installed base of over
pected to grow from around 46,500 46,000 units is dominated by light frame (under 10,000 kW) gas turbine plants
for powergen Other
operation.
units (1300GW) to about 57,000 units Marine
7%
1%
Aeroderivative
(1990GW) in 2018. Other
Marine 1% Powergen 21% Light Frame
7% 62% Aeroderivative 46%
Mech Drive Powergen 21% Light Frame
Spend. Scheduled maintenance ex- 30% 62% 46%
Mech Drive
penditures are expected to rise from 30% By By
$18.3 billion for 2009 to a little over Industry Type
By By
$25 billion in 2018. Industry Type

Service alternatives. As service Heavy Frame


outlays rise, operators will increas- 33%
Heavy Frame
ingly look to leverage cost-saving op- 33%
tions such as ISPs and third-party re-
placement parts.
OEM and Regional Spread (46,455 units) Solar Turbines and General Electric
New equipment markets tend to be units accounted for more than 40% of the 2009 worldwide installed base. North
defined by immediate drivers such as America had the largest share (30%) of installed plants. China India
near-term demand, introduction of ad- MTU Other
15% Africa
3% 2%
2%
vanced technologies, fuel cost trends, Zorya Other Solar Turbines
6% China India
3% 2%
MashproektMTU 23% Africa
Latin America North
pending environmental regulations 3% 2% 15%
Solar Turbines 8% 6% America
Zorya
and the general health of purchaser Dresser
Mashproekt
3%3%
23% Latin America
30%
North
America
8%
E Europe/
budgets, capital pools and national Dresser
Pratt & Whitney By Russia By 30%
OEM
economies. 3%4% 9%
E Europe/ Region
Pratt Siemens
& Whitney By Russia By
Maintenance buys, in contrast, are 4%
5% OEM General
9% Region
Electric
shaped in large part by the inertial Siemens
Kawasaki 21%
General
Middle East
11% Western
5%5%
mass of the installed base, which is Alstom
Electric Middle East
Europe
16%
21% 11% Asia Pacific Western
slow to change and overwhelmingly Kawasaki
5%
8% Rolls Royce
15% Europe
16%
weighted with legacy gear. For ev- Alstom
8%
Source: AeroStrategy Rolls Royce
Asia Pacific
15%

GAS TURBINE WORLD: November - December 2009


level context and finer-grain detail.
Total Capacity (1,343 GW) The estimated 2009 global installed capacity of over In addition to breaking out mar-
1,300 GW was dominated by heavy frame (over 10,000 kW) gas turbine plants for
powergen operation.
kets by application, region and OEM,
AeroStrategy distinguishes GT types
Marine
3% Light Frame using conventional industry catego-
6%
Mech Drive ries including light frame units (under
10%
Powergen
Aeroderivative
12%
10,000 kW), heavy frames (10,000
87% kW and higher) and aeroderivatives.
The range of services considered
By is restricted to routine GT overhauls
By
Industry Type
and field services, as well as estimat-
ed values for major repairs and un-
Heavy Frame scheduled outages, all of which can
82%
be projected from available histori-
cal data. Services for balance-of-plant
equipment (such as generators and
HRSGs), inventory management costs
OEM and Regional Spread (1,343 GW) General Electric units led the field in and major upgrades or technology ret-
powergen and mech drive gas turbine output, accounting for over 40% of 2009 rofit modifications are excluded.
installed capacity worldwide.

India
Baseline measures
Hitachi Other China
1% 8% Africa 5%
2% AeroStrategy’s reference data for
MAPNA
2% General
5%
North 2009 paints a landscape shaped
E Europe/Russia America
Pratt & Whitney
3%
Electric
42%
6% 33% through 60 years of dominance by
Solar Turbines
3% Latin America Western markets, power generation
7%
Rolls Royce
By By applications and established OEMs.
4%
Mitsubishi OEM Region • Installed base. As of 2009, Aero-
6% Middle East
13% Strategy identified an existing global
Alstom industrial gas turbine fleet of approxi-
14%
Asia Pacific
Western
Europe
mately 46,000 units, of which pow-
Siemens 14%
17% 15% er units represent 62%, mechanical
drives 30% and marine engines 7%.
Source: AeroStrategy
• Installed capacity. Powergen units
multi-pronged six-month market as- The results are presented in a re- account for nearly 90% of the total in-
sessment between May and Novem- port titled Industrial Gas Turbine stalled fleet capacity of 1340GW.
ber 2009, with the aim of charting a Global Maintenance Market, which • Gas turbine type. 46% are light
ten-year look-ahead for industrial gas incorporates interview/survey re- frame units, followed by heavy frame
turbine maintenance Marine
trends across all sponses, maintenance interval and designs with 33% and aeroderivative
Light Frame
three major application markets: pow-
1% cost assumptions, 11% and annual projec- gas turbines at 21%.
ergen,
Mechmechanical
Drive drives and marine tions for the years 2010-2018. The • GT Population. More than half of
21% Powergen
propulsion. 78%
report is available for purchase from
Aeroderivative the current installed base comprises
The study included survey respons- AeroStrategy
17% (www.aerostrategy.com) Solar, GE Energy and Rolls-Royce
es and interviews ofByoperators, OEMs, and includes a comprehensive data- gas turbines.
By
maintenance suppliers Industry and distribu- base of maintenanceType costs by specific • Distribution. North America has the
tors (both US and international). In engine model. largest and oldest fleet, with 30% of
Hitachi Other China India
addition, AeroStrategy 1% 8%undertook a Gas Turbine
Africa 5% World reviews some
2%
all installed units and 35% of total
MAPNA 5%
Heavy Frame
broad secondary
2% research effort Generalto of the key findings below. North
E Europe/Russia global capacity. Western Europe, the
Electric 72% America
quantify projected
Pratt & Whitney
3% new equipment 42%de- 6% 33% Asia Pacific region (APAC) and Mid-
liveries,
3%
retirement levels for installed
Solar Turbines General
Latin Americaparameters dle East reflect a combined 42%.of all
7%
gasRollsturbines,
4%
Royce long-termBy utilization While market reviews By are often either units and 43% of installed capacity.
patterns,
Mitsubishi routine maintenance
OEM prac- too broadly inclusive or too narrowly-
Region
• Market size. Maintenance expenses
6% Middle East
tices, and average maintenance inter- focused
13% to provide useful perspective, in 2009 totaled $18.3 billion. Nearly
vals and Alstomcosts by GT type/operational
14%
Global Maintenance Market strikes a 80% of that was spent by power gen-
Western
profile. Siemens
balancedAsiadepth-of-field
Pacific between
Europe
top- erators, with 72% of the total going
14%
17% 15%
India
Other China 2%
Hitachi 10% Africa 3%
Zorya General
2% November - December 6% North
GAS TURBINE WORLD: 2009
Mashproekt Electric E Europe/Russia America
2% 39% 7% 30%
Pratt & Whitney
3%
17% 15%

to services for heavy frame engines.


Total Maintenance Spending (US$18.3B) Global maintenance spending in
North America was the single larg-
2009 was estimated at US$18.3 billion, mostly for service to gas turbines in
est regional market (32%), followed powergen operations.
Marine
Light Frame
by Western Europe and APAC (16% 1%
Marine
11%
each). Mech Drive
21%
1%
Light Frame
11%
Powergen
Some of the details are eye-open- Mech Drive 78% Aeroderivative
21%
ing. For anyone who’s only familiar Powergen
78%
17%
Aeroderivative
with present-day market dynamics, By
17%
By
it may be surprising to note that Chi- Industry Type
By By
na and India – the world’s two most Industry Type
populous and economically-emergent
Heavy Frame
nations – account for a mere 5% of 72%
the already installed base, and an Heavy Frame
72%
equal share of maintenance spending.
Likewise Russia and Eastern Europe,
which are aggressively developing
both utility and pipeline projects, have OEM Unit and Regional Spend (US$18.3B) Almost 40% of the estimated total
only 9% of the fleet and reflect just for 2009 maintenance was spent on General Electric units, followed by Alstom
7% of the maintenance market. and Siemens.
Also, despite variations in fleet age India
and frame distribution, it’s striking to Other
Hitachi 10%
China 2%
Africa 3%
Zorya General 6% India North
note how closely maintenance expen- Mashproekt
2% Other
Electric China 2%
Africa 3%
E Europe/Russia America
2% Hitachi 10% 39% 30%
ditures by OEM nameplate and region Pratt &
Zorya
Whitney
Mashproekt
2% General
Electric
7% 6% North
America
E Europe/Russia
correspond to the comparable fleet 3% 2%
Mitsubishi
39% 7% 30%
Pratt & Whitney Latin America
breakdowns by capacity. More than 3% 4%
By 8% By
Mitsubishi Region
any other factor, megawatts dictate Solar
4%
Turbines
6%
OEM
By
Latin America
8% By
the share of maintenance dollars, at Solar Turbines
Rolls Royce OEM
Asia Pacific
Region
6% 6%
least in the aggregate. Rolls Royce
14%
Asia Pacific Western
At the level of unit maintenance 6% Siemens
13% Alstom 14% Middle East
Europe
15% 16%
Western
costs ($/kWhr), utilization is the de- Siemens
Alstom
14%
Europe
13% Middle East
termining factor. As reported by Aero- 15%
14%
16%

Strategy, smaller-capacity engines Source: AeroStrategy


with low utilization and a consequent- market will be electric power gen- shift to heavy frame units.
ly higher number of starts are more eration, particularly in the category of
cost-intensive (up to $0.013/kWhr), heavy frame baseload units. Powergen service stays strong
while larger units in continuous-run • China, E. Europe/Russia and India Ever since aero and frame types de-
30.0
applications have the least unit cost will experience the most accelerated buted as peaking units in the 1960s,
(as low as $0.002/kWhr). growth.30.0
North America, while retain-
Marine, 3.7% GTs have assumed a progressively
ing its 25.0
position Marine,
as theDrive,
Mech single
3.7% largest
2.3% larger and more diversified role in
Overall forecast regional market,
25.0
takes last
Powergen, place,
4.1%
Mech Drive, 2.3%
with power generation. Nameplates, mod-
virtually zero expansion. els and frame sizes have proliferated.
(US$B)

In contrast to the 2009 snapshot, the Powergen, 4.1%


study’s projections through 2018 – Bottom 20.0 line: While total mainte- And, by 2009, an installed base of
(US$B)

which factor in both new deliveries nance outlays


20.0 will rise by nearly 40% nearly 29,000 engines accounted for
Spending

and expected unit retirements – reveal over the study period, growth in de- roughly 1170GW of generating capac-
15.0
Spending

shifting patterns of industry demand veloping regions will dramatically ity. AeroStrategy foresees no let-up
15.0
and regional economic activity that outpace mature industrialized mar- in the trend, and projects the installed
will subtly but steadily alter estab- kets like10.0
North America and Western base will exceed 37,000 units by
lished market outlines. Europe.10.0
And while power generation 2018, delivering a collective capacity
• Total GT maintenance spending units will continue to capture the li- of nearly 1800GW. Highlights:
on’s share5.0of service dollars, expand- • Capacity rises even as unit deliver-
will increase at a Compound An-
nual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7% ing availability
5.0 of natural gas fuel in ies fall. In recent decades, escalating
through 2018, when it will reach $25 developing0.0
regions and an accelerat- fuel costs and stricter emissions re-
billion globally. . ing demand for high-capacity power
2009 2010 2011 2012
quirements have driven the adoption
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0.0
• The fastest-growing industry service plant projects will see the spotlight of high-output, high-efficiency GT
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GAS TURBINE WORLD: November - December 2009


engines as a preferred technology for shares of capacity remaining large- age, respectively. While industrialized
new and replacement baseload plants. ly unchanged year-to-year, although regions slip modestly in market share,
The development of combined growth in Mitsubishi nameplate ca- they still command nearly 70% of all
cycle and combined heat and power pacity is expected to outpace the other buys.
(CHP) plant designs has made heavy three. • Major nameplates crowd the field.
frame turbines even more attractive, • Lagging markets see fastest growth Engines from heavy frame manufac-
as has the introduction of dual- and in new capacity. With a CAGR of turers (GE Energy, Alstom, Siemens
multi-fuel-capable engines that enable 13.5%, China will lead in capacity and Mitsubishi) command the largest
operators to diversify fuel use across growth rate, followed by E. Europe/ dollar-share of growth, with spend-
their installed fleets and limit their Russia, India and Africa. ing on GE units topping all other
vulnerability to fuel market shocks. In most respects, growth in main- nameplates and Mitsubishi posting
Heavy frame units are also often tenance spending will track the same the most rapid gains at 7.9% CAGR.
the engine-of-choice in regions that trend lines as growth in capacity: Of all nameplates, only spending on
are experiencing sudden, explosive • Steady growth in global mainte- Solar units will grow faster, at 8.3%
growth in population, industry and nance spending. Overall spending CAGR.
urban infrastructure. will increase at a pace of 4.1% CAGR
As a result of all these drivers, through 2018, up from $14.2 bil- Larger mech drives lead growth
AeroStrategy sees a steady increase lion to more than $20 billion. Fastest As with the power generation market,
in installed GT capacity but a net-neg- growth will occur in intermediate load the future of mechanical drive mainte-
ative growth in unit deliveries, as the applications (4000 to 6000 hours) and nance will be dictated in large part by
larger heavy frames displace demand heavy and light frame engines, with the current installed base.
for smaller units. heavy frame units capturing roughly In a market defined almost exclu-
• Traditionally strong OEMs will con- 80%.of all maintenance dollars. sively by oil and gas industry applica-
tinue to dominate. By the end of the • Emerging markets outperform the tions, the growth rate in new GT pur-
study period, 80% of installed ca- average. China, E. Europe and India chases and maintenance spending will
pacity will be supplied by GE En- are runaway leaders in the growth be highest for historically low-pro-
ergy, Siemens, Alstom and Mitsubishi stake, with CAGRs approaching duction regions that are just starting
nameplates, with collective and OEM 400%, 300% and 200% of the aver- to develop indigenous non-coal fuel

Powergen Base (by region and age) North America has the largest installed fleet of gas turbine powergen units, and
the largest regional complement of units with more than 30 years of service.

Units Units Units


4000 3000 1200
2500 1000
3000
2000 800
2000 1500 600
1000 400
1000
500 200
0 0 0
<15 15-30 >30 Yrs <15 15-30 >30 Yrs <15 15-30 >30 Yrs 1200
1000
800
800 600
400
600 200
400 2500 0

2000 <15 15-30 >30 Yrs


200
1000 1500
800 0
1000
<15 15-30 >30 Yrs
600 500
400 0
200 350
350 <15 15-30 >30 Yrs
300
0 250 300
<15 15-30 >30 Yrs 200 250
150 200
100 150
50 100
0 50
0
<15 15-30 >30 Yrs
<15 15-30 >30 Yrs

Source: AeroStrategy

GAS TURBINE WORLD: November - December 2009


resources and strategic infrastructure. 1,200 retirements through 2018, with oping new fields and major pipeline
Because of the vastly larger installed nearly 900 units exiting operation in projects – and the Middle East more
base of established producing nations, North America. than offset the change.
Marine
however, they will retain the largest Deliveries 1% of mechanical drives China (12.4% Light Frame
11%
CAGR) and India
share of maintenance dollars, despite peaked
Mech Driveat more than 600 units in (6.9% CAGR) post the fastest growth-
comparatively slower growth overall, 1981,21%with deliveries in recent Powergende- rates. Yet, despite aggressive develop-
78% Aeroderivative
flat growth in Western Europe and cades hovering between 200-300 ment,17%the two countries are still play-
a net decline in spending for North engines annually. Despite mounting ing catch-up, and only begin to reflect
By By
America. retirements, theIndustry base is expected to a significant marketType share in the later
experience modest, steady growth at years of the study period.
2009 snapshot: 1.4% CAGR throughout the study pe- • Small units win on the numbers, but
riod, reaching approximately 16,000 larger engines lead by share. Solar,
Heavy Frame

• Current installed base. In 2009, units in 2018. which72% had the largest fleet and the top
the installed base of mechani- • Some regions surge, others retreat, five engines by number of units in
cal drive GTs totaled 14,052 units, yielding modest growth in overall 2009, will continue to maintain its top
with light frame engines accounting maintenance spending. Total mainte- ranking for new unit deliveries and to-
for 64%. The remainder was evenly nance spending will increase by 2.3 tal installed base. However, larger en-
split between heavy frame units and CAGR, reaching $4.2 billion in 2018. gines – most notably the GE Frame 5
aeroderivatives, at 18% each. However, unlike power genera- and Rolls-Royce RB211 – will take the
• Leading nameplates. Solar engines tion markets where capacity demand largest share of maintenance dollars.
India
accounted for 38% of all units, fol- trends in one direction Other only, devel- China 2%
Africa 3%
Hitachi 10%
lowed by Rolls-Royce, GE and Zorya opment of oil2%& gas infrastructure
Zorya General Marine base flat, but service
6% rises
North
Mashproekt Electric E Europe/Russia America
Mashproekt. moves in2%cycles, the effects of which 39% Considered side-by-side with
7% 30% pow-
Pratt & Whitney
• Utilization. 70% of installed units are evident
3% in AeroStrategy’s projec- ergen and mechanical drive units,
Mitsubishi
were being used in compression/pump tion. Formerly-dominant regions with
4% perhaps
Latin Americathe most remarkable thing
8% By
By
systems, with the remainder in pipe- mature infrastructure OEM
Solar Turbines and declining or about the marine Region engine maintenance
6%
line drive and gas transmission/trans- stalled production (Western Europe,
Rolls Royce
market is how little – aside from its
port roles. North America)
6% see flat or negative value – will change over the next nine
Asia Pacific
14%
• Regional distribution. North Ameri- growth, while market expansion
Siemens
Alstom
in E. years. Western
Europe
13% Middle East
ca, E. Europe/Russia, the Middle East Europe/Russia – which is still 15%devel- Driven largely 14%
by military
16% con-

and Latin America operate about two-


thirds of the installed base. Western
Global Spending Growth (2009-2018) Global maintenance spending is pro-
Europe, Africa and APAC comprise jected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% per year, sur-
most of the remaining third. passing US25 billion by 2018. Service buys for powergen units will grow at 4.1%
• Fleet status. Approximately 40% of CAGR.
installed units have surpassed their
30-year design life, with North Amer- 30.0

ica operating the oldest fleet. Post- Marine, 3.7%


design units are typically kept online 25.0 Mech Drive, 2.3%
through a combination of O&M life- Powergen, 4.1%
extension programs and technology
Spending (US$B)

upgrades. 20.0
• Maintenance spending. Maintenance
expenditures totaled 3.8 billion.
15.0

Market growth preview:


10.0
• Continued base growth, despite
accelerated retirements. According
to AeroStrategy, of the 14,091 me- 5.0
chanical drive engines delivered since
1960, only 39 have been retired to
0.0
date. However, the advancing age of
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
installed fleets will result in a wave of
Source: AeroStrategy

GAS TURBINE WORLD: November - December 2009


tracts for naval propulsion systems, than 50% of all new unit deliveries, 10% of their parts buys from non-
deliveries of marine propulsion gas reaching 51% of the total mainte- OEM suppliers – their plans for future
turbines peaked in 1980. In recent nance market in 2018. purchases indicate a strong shift from
years, new deliveries have stabilized “none” to “some,” and from “some
in a range of roughly 60-70 units per Alternatives get a closer look parts” to “even more parts.”
year, with the installed base reaching AeroStrategy used research data and
3,190 engines in 2009. maintenance models to project the OEMs follow the markets
With some 500 retirements ex- what, where and how much of gas Not content to sit back and concede
pected through 2018 and feeble or turbine service markets in the com- market share, industry OEMs are
declining military and civil transport ing decade. But they augmented their employing a variety of strategies to
demand globally, new orders will only field research with surveys and in- expand overall service capacity and
be sufficient to maintain current fleet terviews of GT owners and industry make OEM maintenance capabilities
levels. Nonetheless, annual mainte- experts to answer the question of who both available and competitive in lo-
nance spending rides a roller-coaster will be providing the services. Some cal markets. Siemens, for example,
of higher spending through the end of key observations: opened a regional GT service center
the projected period. Highlights: • The report estimates that OEMs cur- in Belarus in 2007. Mitsubishi, which
• Installed base stays flat, as new de- rently hold a 57% share of mainte- already has a Western Hemisphere
liveries decline. Fleet growth will be nance spending, most of which is con- service center and a recently-com-
level at 0% CAGR for the study peri- centrated in major overhauls and ser- pleted blade and vane manufacturing
od. New deliveries will peak in 2011, vices for newer-generation engines. facility in Orlando, has announced
but register an overall decline of -1% The remaining 43% is split between plans to build a large-frame turbine
CAGR through 2018. Regionally, independent service groups (including manufacturing plant in Atlanta that
only North America, Western Europe OEM licensees) and operators, who will double as a service asset and sup-
and Africa will see net gains in fleet primarily undertake routine and light plier of combustor components. Like-
numbers. maintenance services (such as com- wise, GE, with a large and growing
• Maintenance spending takes a tack- bustion inspections) and maintenance fleet in Russia, broke ground this year
ing course upwards. Outlays for ma- on older-model gas turbines. on a $50 million Power Technology
rine engine service (2009 = $235 • The study also suggests that non- Center in the Kaluga Region – the
million) log a 3.6% CAGR overall OEM participation in the service first Russian service facility offering
through 2018, ending the period at market will likely increase over time. OEM services for GE gas turbines
$327 million, a 40% increase over Roughly two-thirds of survey respon- and components. In November, Rolls-
2009.However, market value will not dents already use ISPs, with half of Royce launched a full-service Marine
rise on a constant basis, displaying those respondents indicating they plan GT maintenance and overhaul plant in
significant fluctuations year-to-year, to expand the role of non-OEM ser- Genoa, Italy.
with a peak of approximately $380 vice.
million in 2016. • Expectations for the future of Long- Partnerships and JVs will be key
Spending by region and nameplate Term Service Agreements (LTSAs) OEMs are also continuing to extend
also alternates through a series of with OEM service groups are mixed. their reach through industry part-
surges and contractions as changing Less than half of AeroStrategy’s re- nerships and joint ventures with in-
numbers of installed units come due spondents presently have a service country service suppliers. In 2009,
for overhaul. Year-to-year variations contract in place, but most of those Chromalloy expanded its multi-year
aside, however, North America and intend to expand the scope of their association with GE as a component
Western Europe continue to be the top contracts within the next few years. refurbisher and parts manufacture to
markets, with over 60% of all mainte- • Across all three markets, AeroStrat- include comprehensive depot services
nance buys through 2018. Spending egy determined that expenditures for for LM2500 engines at its San Diego
on GE units leads all others through- replacement parts accounts for rough- MRO facility. In October, Mitsubishi
out the period, followed by Rolls- ly 80% of maintenance dollars. How- signed an agreement with Electric-
Royce and OJSC Power Machines. ever, significant price savings can be ity Generating Authority of Thailand
• GE’s LM2500 takes the flag in all realized by using non-OEM vs. OEM (EGAT) to form a joint venture GT
categories. In 2009, LM2500 engines parts and repaired/refurbished parts maintenance group to service Mit-
accounted for 31% of the installed vs. new. While more than 60% of subishi’s existing installed fleet and
fleet and 43% of all maintenance ex- AeroStrategy’s respondents currently position itself to leverage future sales
penditures. According to AeroStrat- purchase at least some non-original and service opportunities in a rapidly-
egy, LM2500s will constitute more parts – with 20% making more than growing market.

GAS TURBINE WORLD: November - December 2009

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