Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
CHAPTER 9
EXERCISE SOLUTIONS
9.2 The parameter of interest is the proportion that thinks crime is a serious problem in the population
of all adult Americans. The statistic will be the proportion of the 1000 adults in the sample who
think crime is a serious problem. The statistic will estimate the unknown value of the parameter.
b.
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Probability 1/10 1/10 2/10 2/10 2/10 1/10 1/10
9.6 a. Statistics. The given means are summaries of samples taken from a larger population.
b. The sample means alone do not provide enough information to say whether the mean salary for
males in the company is higher than the mean salary for females. It might be that the observed
difference between sample means is consistent with the type of difference that could occur for any
two randomly selected samples of n =100 taken from the same population. We might ask how
likely it is that the difference in means would be as large as $1,500 (the observed difference) if
there were actually no difference between males and females in the population. To answer this, we
need to know the sampling distribution for possible differences between the means of two
different samples taken from the same population. Later in the text, it will be seen that the relevant
sampling distribution can be determined, as long as the sample standard deviations are also
provided.
c. No, the sample means most likely would not be the same for two new samples. A sample mean
is a random variable and varies from sample to sample.
.5 (1 − .5)
9.12 a. Mean = p = .5; s.d. = = .025
400
.5 (1 − .5 )
b. Mean = p = .5; s.d. = = .0125
1600
.8 (1 − .8 )
c. Mean = p = .8; s.d. ( p̂ ) = = .05
64
.8 (1 − .8)
d. Mean = p = .8; s.d. ( p̂ ) = = .025
256
9.13 A change in the sample size does not affect the value of the mean of the sampling distribution.
Increasing the sample size decreases the value of the standard deviation.
9.17 a. Mean = p = .2
.2 (1 − .2 )
b. s.d. ( p̂ ) = = . 05 .
64
c. .15 and .25, calculated as .2 ±.05.
d. .10 and .30, calculated as .2 ± (2×.05).
.70 (1 − .70 )
9.18 a. Mean = .70; s.d. ( p̂ ) = = .0324 .
200
b. .70 ± (3×.0324), or .6028 to .7972.
c. pˆ = 120 200 = .60 . This is a statistic.
d. The value .60 is slightly below the interval of possible sample proportions for 99.7% of all
random samples of 200 from a population where p = .70. In other words, the sample proportion is
unusually low if the true proportion were .70. Maybe the population value is actually less than .70.
9.19 a. Condition 1: There exists an actual population (club members) with a fixed proportion (p = .05)
who have a certain trait (utilize the service)
Condition 2: By assumption, the 400 members in the small town make up a random sample from
the larger club membership.
Condition 3: The size of the sample (n = 400) is large enough so that np and n(1-p) are both larger
than 10.
Chapter 9 Solutions Page 4 of 29
9.19 continued:
b. The sampling distribution of p̂ is approximately a normal distribution.
The mean is .05 (the population percent expressed as a proportion).
p (1 − p ) .05 (1 − . 05 )
The standard deviation is s.d .( pˆ ) = = = .011
n 400
c. The corresponding proportion is 28/400 =.07. Find the probability that pˆ ≥ .07 using the
normal distribution described in part (b). The mean is .05 and the standard deviation is .011.
9.20 About 95% of all samples will have a sample proportion in the interval .05 ± (2)(.011), which is
.028 to .072 (approximately .03 to .07). The sampling distribution of p̂ is approximately a normal
distribution, so about 95% of sample proportions will fall in the interval p ± 2 s.d .( pˆ ) .
9.21 The standard error of p̂ is calculated using an observed value of a sample proportion and it (the
standard error) estimates the "true" standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p̂ . The
standard deviation is found using the known (or assumed to be known) value of the population
proportion.
pˆ (1 − pˆ )
The formula for the standard error is s.e.( pˆ ) = .
n
p (1 − p )
The formula for the standard deviation is s.d .( pˆ ) = .
n
In practice, the standard error will be used more often because the value of the population
proportion usually will not be known.
9.22 a. This scenario fits the Rule for Sample Proportions if we assume the probability is .06 that any
one of the 1500 customers files a claim during the year, and that customers are independent of
each other. In reality, the probability of filing a claim may be greater in some age groups than in
others, but we'll assume this is not the case. In that event, this scenario can be viewed as 1500
repeated trials of a process in which the chance of a certain outcome (filing a claim) is the same
(.06) on each trial.
The distribution is approximately a normal distribution.
The mean = .06 (6% expressed as a proportion).
p (1 − p ) .06 (1 − . 06 )
The standard deviation is s.d .( pˆ ) = = = . 006 .
n 1500
Chapter 9 Solutions Page 5 of 29
b. It could be argued that a group for a specific year might not be like a random sample from the
larger population. With the assumption that this year's class is like a random sample, and the
understanding that the results only apply to samples of 90 students, the Rule for Sample
Proportions can be used to describe the sampling distribution of the proportion who do not finish.
The distribution is approximately a normal distribution.
The mean = .15 (15% expressed as a proportion).
p (1 − p ) .15 (1 − .15 )
The standard deviation is s.d .( pˆ ) = = = .038
n 90
c. The sample size (number of entrants) varies from time to time so the Rule for Sample
Proportions does not apply.
9.24 About 95% of the samples will have a sample proportion in the interval .20 ± (2)(.04), which is .12
to .20. The sampling distribution of p̂ is approximately a normal distribution, so about 95% of
sample proportions will fall in the interval p ± 2 s.d .( pˆ ) .
9.25 The student is right that once a sample is taken, the observed value of the proportion is known so
that particular value doesn’t have a distribution. In essence, the sampling distribution describes
what the sample proportions might be for all the different samples of the same size that could be
taken from the same population. The sampling distribution gives information about how much the
sample proportion might differ if we observed a different sample.
σ 24
9.27 a. s.d .( x ) = = =6.
n 16
σ 24
b. s.d .( x ) = = = 3.
n 84
c. Increasing the sample size decreases the value of the standard deviation of the sampling
distribution of the sample mean.
s 7 .2
9.30 s.e.( x) = = = 0 .93 .
n 60
σ
a. Mean = µ = 60 mph; . s.d. ( x ) =
6
9.31 = = 1 mph.
n 36
b. 58 and 62, calculated as 60 ±(2×1)
c. A sample mean= 66 mph (when n = 36) would not be consistent with the belief that the
population mean is 60 mph. It is well outside the range of possible means for 95% of all random
samples of n = 36.
Chapter 9 Solutions Page 7 of 29
9.32 a.
Figure for Exercise 9.32a
d. If the total weight is 8800, the mean weight is 8800/40 = 220 pounds. The question asked is
equivalent to asking what is the probability that the mean weight is greater than 220 pounds for 40
passengers. Because the question is about a sample mean, use the sampling distribution described
in part (b) to find the answer for P( x > 220 ) .
220 − 210
For x =220 pounds, z = = 2. 53 .
3 .95
Use Table A.1 to find that P(Z ≤ 2.53) = .9943.
P( x > 220 ) = P(Z > 2.53) = 1− P(Z ≤ 2.53) = 1−.9943 = .0057
Notice that this probability is 57 in 10,000, which is equivalent to 1 in 175 (divide 10,000 by 57).
In the long run, about 1 of every 175 sold-out flights will exceed the total weight limit.
Chapter 9 Solutions Page 11 of 29
9.41 continued:
MACRO
CASH5MAX Highest
MCONSTANT n ijk
MCOLUMN Highest Barrel Newsample
SET Barrel
1:39
END.
DO ijk=1:1000
SAMPLE 5 Barrel Newsample
LET Highest(ijk)=MAXIMUM(Newsample)
ENDDO
ENDMACRO
9.42 The possible values for H are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. One way to determine probabilities is to list the 36
possible equally likely outcomes for two dice, write the highest number (H) for each outcome, and
then count the number of outcomes for each different value of the random variable H. The
following table gives each outcome, along with the value of H for the outcome.
1,1 H = 1 1,2 H = 2 1,3 H = 3 1,4 H = 4 1,5 H = 5 1,6 H = 6
2,1 H = 2 2,2 H = 2 2,3 H = 3 2,4 H = 4 2,5 H = 5 2,6 H = 6
3,1 H = 3 3,2 H = 3 3,3 H = 3 3,4 H = 4 3,5 H = 5 3,6 H = 6
4,1 H = 4 4,2 H = 4 4,3 H = 4 4,4 H = 4 4,5 H = 5 4,6 H = 6
5,1 H = 5 5,2 H = 5 5,3 H = 5 5,4 H = 5 5,5 H = 5 5,6 H = 6
6,1 H = 6 6,2 H = 6 6,3 H = 6 6,4 H = 6 6,5 H = 6 6,6 H = 6
9.44 The mean of the sampling distribution of the proportion correct, X /10, is p = .5. If the mean
number correct is 5, the mean proportion correct will be 5 /10 = .5.
pˆ − p pˆ − p . 60 − .50 .10
9.45 a. z = = = = =2.
s.d .( pˆ ) p (1 − p ) . 50 (1 − .50 ) .05
n 100
pˆ − p pˆ − p . 60 − .50 . 10
b. z = = = = = 2. 828 .
s.d .( pˆ ) p (1 − p ) . 50 (1 − .50 ) .0354
n 200
.78 − .80 − .02
c. z = = = −1 .
.80 (1 − .80 ) .02
400
.82 − . 80 .02
d. z = = =1
.80 (1 − . 80 ) .02
400
Chapter 9 Solutions Page 12 of 29
9.45 continued:
.25 − . 40 − .15
e. z = = = 9 .202
.40 (1 − . 40 ) .0163
900
.10 (1 − .10 ) .13 − . 10
9.46 Answer = 1. Mean = p = .10; s.d. ( p̂ ) = = .03 ; z= = 1.
100 .03
x−µ x − µ 74 − 72 2
9.47 a. z = = = = =1.
s.d .( x) σ 10 2
n 25
x−µ x − µ 70 − 72 −2
b. z = = = = = −1 .
s.d .( x) σ 10 2
n 25
c. z = −2.
d. z = −4.
e. z = 3.
σ
Answer = 1.6; Mean = µ = $200,000 ; s.d. ( x ) =
$ 25 ,000
9.48 = = $5, 000 ;
n 25
208000 − 200000
z= = 1 .6 .
5000
pˆ − p
9.49 The population proportion p must also be known. The relevant formula is z = .
p (1 − p )
n
9.50 The population mean µ and the population standard deviation σ must also be known. The relevant
x −µ
formula is z = .
σ
n
pˆ − p pˆ − p .64 − . 50 .14
9.51 z= = = = = 2 .426 .
s.d .( pˆ ) p (1 − p ) .50 (1 − . 50 ) .0577
n 75
x −µ x − µ 97 − 100 −3
9.52 a. For x = 97, z = = = = = −1 .2 .
s.d..( x ) σ 15 2 .5
n 36
x −µ 105 − 100 5
b. For x = 105, z = = = = 2.
s.d.( x) 2. 5 2. 5
σ 15
c. Mean =100. s.d .( x ) = = = 2 .5 .
n 36
Chapter 9 Solutions Page 13 of 29
d.
Figure for Exercise 9.52d
e.
Figure for Exercise 9.52e
f. In essence, the drawings for parts (d) and (e) are the same. In part (e) the horizontal axis shows
standardized statistics that correspond to the values along the horizontal axis in part (d). The area
(probability) between x = 97 and x = 102 equals the area (probability) between z = −1.2 and z = 2.
pˆ − p pˆ − p .20 − . 25 −.05
9.53 a. For pˆ = . 20 , z = = = = = −1 .
s.d .( pˆ ) p (1 − p ) .25 (1 − . 25 ) .05
n 75
pˆ − p . 33 − .25 .08
For pˆ = . 33 , z = = = = 1 .6 .
s.d .( pˆ ) . 25 (1 − .25 ) .05
75